Helaba Volkswirtschaft/Research

FX DAILY 03 March 2017

AUTHOR
Ralf Umlauf China: Caixan services PMI for February declines from 53.1 to 52.6.
069/91 329132 -1891 Mester (Fed): Fed is reaching employment and inflation targets.
research@helaba.de
Asias equity markets generally softer, oil price (LCF) steadies below USD 53.
EDITOR
Ulrich Wortberg
FX Supports Resistances Comments
SALES EUR-USD 1.0526 1.0500 1.0460 1.0678 1.0829 1.0872 Risks still existing
Savings Banks EUR-JPY 118.70 118.56 117.50 121.70 123.10 124.10 Technical picture is improving
Tel.: 069/91 32-1706/
-1715/-1815 EUR-GBP 0.8403 0.8333 0.8300 0.8592 0.8645 0.8855 Stabilisation
0211/ 30174-9286 EUR-CHF 1.0623 1.0610 1.0580 1.0709 1.0760 1.0895 Technical picture has brightened

Institutionals
Tel.: 069/91 32-1830 The PMIs will attract attention again today, with the focus on the service sector this time. The
0211/ 30174-9283 Spanish and Italian readings will be particularly interesting as no preliminary data are published.
Banks Given that the indications from Germany, France and the Eurozone were positive across the
Tel.: 069/91 32-2045/ board, convincing results showing robust sentiment in Spain and Italy are also likely. Overall, the
-1196
growth scenario for the Eurozone seems to be intact, which should be underlined by the recovery
Corporates in retail sales. The service PMI in the UK is also of interest. Its manufacturing counterpart was
Tel.: 069/91 32-1700/ disappointing as it posted a decline, but remains clearly in expansion territory. Nonetheless, ster-
-1442
ling softened on the back of the report. A slightly weaker result is expected by the consensus, while
Public Authorities guidance from the service poll of the EU Commission is positive. The service index is also on the
Tel.: 069 91 32 -2664 / -
4078
agenda in the US. The indications for the ISM survey are mixed. While the service indices in Phila-
-4820/-2436 delphia and Dallas declined at a high level, the Richmond index rose. It is therefore unwise to be
0211/ 30174-5952 too optimistic.
EUR-GBP: The technical situation has improved as the euro has recovered versus sterling and
moved closer to the mid-February high of 0.8592. The 38.5% retracement of the decline from mid-
January to the end of February at 0.8575 is also being tested. The stochastic, MACD and DMI are
A ktuell Vo rtag
EUR-USD 1,0513 1,0506
in buy mode and continued gains seem possible. The next resistances are at 0.8645 and 0.8667.
EUR-JP Y 120,05 120,29
EUR-USD: The euro managed to hold above the supports at around 1.05 despite the increased
USD-JP Y 114,17 114,50
EUR-GB P 0,8577 0,8566 rate expectations. This must be viewed as a positive in the context of the technical situation. It is
GB P -USD
EUR-CHF
1,2260
1,0651
1,2265
1,0648
therefore unclear whether further Fed comments (especially from the Fed chair) can provide the
gg. VT necessary impetus. Trading range: 1.0450 1.0600.
DA X 12059,57 -7,62
B und-Future 164,61 -0,32
Go ld 1232,26 -1,59
l US-LCF 52,68 0,07
Time Country Period Indicator/event Consensus Prior Impact

8:00 DE Jan Retail sales +0.3% m/m rev. 0.0% low

Source: Bloomberg +0.7% y/y -1.1%
9:15 ES Feb Service PMI 55.2 54.2 medium
9:45 IT Feb Service PMI 52.8 52.4 medium
9:50 FR Feb Service PMI 56.7 (prelim.) 56.7 low
9:55 DE Feb Service PMI 54.4 (prelim.) 54.4 low
10:00 EZ Feb Service PMI 55.6 (prelim.) 55.6 low
10:30 UK Feb Service PMI 54.1 54.5 medium
11:00 EZ Jan Retail sales +0.3% m/m -0.3% low
+1.5% y/y +1.1%
16:00 US Feb ISM service index 56.5 56.5 high
16:15 Fed speeches: Evans, Lacker, Powell (18:15).
Fischer (18:30), Yellen (19:00)
Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research

Published by: Helaba Research, Publisher: Dr. G. R. Traud, Chief Economist/ Head of Research, Neue Mainzer Strae 52-58, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Tel.: 069/91 32-20 24, Internet:
http://www.helaba.de . This publication was very carefully researched and prepared. However, it contains analyses and forecasts regarding current and future market conditions that are for
informational purposes only. The data is based on sources that we consider reliable, though we cannot assume any responsibility for the sources being accurate, complete, and up-to-date. All
statements in this publication are for informational purposes. They must not be taken as an offer or recommendation for investment decisions.

HELABA VOLKSWIRTSCHAFT/RESEARCH 03 MARCH 2017 07:58:46 HELABA 1