CONTENTS:

1) Introduction

2) Political impacts
Political marginalization
Identity Card issue

3) Social impacts
Economic impacts
Job Opportunities
Atmosphere of insecurity
Madrassah culture
Pak-Afghan Chaman border
Inter-marriages and its impacts

4) Way forward

5) Conclusion

6) References

INTRODUCTION:
 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan opened a new era not only at the
International arena but also being the neighbor of the war torn country
affected us severely. Not only the terrorism spilled over to our country but
huge exodus of refugees took place. However, after living here for more than
three and a half decade, the government of Pakistan has decided to
repatriate refugees back to their country. Federal Minister for States and
Frontier Regions (Safron) Lt Gen (retd) Abdul Qadir Baloch on Thursday made
it clear that Afghan refugees will have to leave Pakistan come what may.

Pakistan cannot host Afghan refugees for further period, the federal
minister said.1

Afghan refugees after spending more than three and a half decades have
infiltrated into every sphere of life. Their roles have been trickled down from
the man labor to the entrepreneurship. Therefore, their repatriation would
certainly create vacuum. Resultantly, its advantages would overtake
loopholes created by this policy. Reservations of baloch people would be
removed regarding their concept of being driven to minority. The issue of
fake identity card would be sorted out. Law and order situation and insecurity
would be improved.

The porous Chaman border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the
cross border movement does not require any document, is the main issue in
this transference of terrorism from one country to another country. The
success of repatriation policy would affect the situation at border too. Drug
trafficking and smuggling would be controlled too. Furthermore, the success
of this policy is the prerequisite for getting benefits. The government would
face after shock of its new approach. Because, afghans have greater role in
the economy of the province. Inter-marriages between emigrants and local
population. All these factors contribute to make situation perplexed.

POLITICAL IMPACTS:

The longstanding reservation of Baloch people is that they have been

dragged into minority in the province where they are in absolute majority.
One of the biggest reasons is; the exodus of afghan refugees in the provinc.

1 Afghan refugees have to leave Pakistan come what may says Safron minister, DAWN JUNE, 30,
2016
In Balochistan, the issue of Afghan refugees has another twist to it. Balochs
claim that Ghilzai settlers in 19th century Balochistan (who are few lakhs
nowadays), are illegal Afghan refugees who have just recently gained
Pakistani citizenship through efforts of PMAP , to undermine the majority of
Balochs in the province. The issue of citizenship for afghan refugees has, at
its very root, political purposes. After conviction of half a dozen NADRA
officials in Balochistan, Now its a fact that illegal CNICs have been issued to
Afghan refugees in huge numbers. During investigation by Federal
Investigation Agency (FIA) one fake CNIC racket admitted to have issued half
million illegal CNICs to afghan refugees. 2. One the one hand, the afghan
turned Pakistani are getting jobs. On the other hand, these Afghans are being
used by the Pashtun parliamentarians as a vote bank in their election
compaigns.

The current hot issue, lingering in Pakistani politics is the census.

Notwithstanding, when it comes to politics of the largest province of
Pakistan, once again Baloch politicians consider Afghan refugees responsible
for the census delay. Kakar said his BNP was against all foreigners: We
would not accept any census in their presence, no matter which ethnic group
they belong to Baloch, Pashtun or any other. Census has always been a
contentious issue in the ethnically divided Pakistan. While the controversy
over Afghans swelling the Pashtun ethnic ranks in Balochistan has been there
for long, the lack of security in Baloch territories making them less accessible
for the census is also seen as an obstacle that could affect Baloch
demographics.

If the policy of sending afghan refugees back to Afghanistan met with

success, it would change the political dynamics in many ways. The hurdles in
the way of consensus would be removed. The population ratio would be
changed. Significantly, the reservation that baloch people are marginalized
2 NADRA: Disrupting demographics in Balochisatn by issuing fake I,d cards, The Balochistan point,
aug, 12, 2015
not only by the unequal distribution of resources but also by the heavy influx
of refugees in their province. Secondly, the elections would be conducted in
fair environment without the roar of using afghan citizen as a vote bank for a
specific community.

SOCIAL IMPACTS:

Afghan refugees, who have been settled here for more than three and
a half decade, penetrated in every sphere of the society. They have special
roles whether it is related to economy, security and politically. The rural part
of the province, especially Pashtun majority area, relies on afghan refugees
who are not only providing man labor but they are now experts on
agriculture. The repatriation, if on the one side providing space for the local
while on the other hand its ramification for the landed elites is quite reverse.
The security situation would be altered and madrasah culture would be
affected too.
The role of afghan community in the province cannot be gainsaid. They
have acquired firm footing even in the capital of the province. Zahidullah
Shinwari, senior vice president of Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Chamber of
Commerce and Industry (PACCCI), said that forced repatriation of Afghan
refugees would cast far-reaching bad impact on Pak-Afghan relations and
would also cause long and short term effects on their socio-economic fabric 3.
Furthermore, the local industry would lose 80 per cent skilled manpower
mostly comprising Afghan young men. He said that although local unskilled
youth would get an opportunity of private employment, yet industry in the
province would suffer for quite some time to train them.
The author himself, being a resident of the rural area of the province,
once asked a landlord of the village about the repercussion of the return of
afghan refugees. He also pointed the same thing as Zahidullah Shinwari has
3 Force return of afghans to affect geo-political scenario of the country, DAWN, sep, 18, 2016
pointed out. He said that we would be deprived of the skilled labor and the
business would badly be affected. He further said, The locals are not that
much expert as the Afghans are. The reason is quite obvious that after
entering in the province, they acquainted themselves with the job of
agriculture.
Furthermore, the deprived and jobless Afghan migrants have been
notably attracted by banned terrorist and extremist organizations. Security
experts strongly believe that refugees are hired by terrorist owing to their
perplexing economic problems. While it cant be assuredly said that refugees
are responsible for the law and order situation in Pakistan and worldwide, as
researches suggest, they are more exposed to crimes. Pakistan has already
waged a war against terrorists country-wide; it confronts serious and
existential threats in its urban and rural areas. The extra ordinary times
require extraordinary efforts and decisions. Given the suspicious history of
refugees and their lethal nexus with terrorist organizations, Pakistan,
probably, should do its best to oust refugees to Afghanistan.4
Pakistan is the seventh most populated country of the world. On the
other hand, Balochistan is the least populated province. Balochisatns
inflation rate is the highest among other provinces of the republic of
Pakistan. The resources, is one of the main reasons behind this phenomenon.
The afghan refugees are not only taking part from these resources but are
also taking employment as some politicians are patronizing them for the vote
bank Minister for States and Frontier Regions (Safron) Abdul Qadir Baloch has
said that Afghan refugees had occupied over one million jobs in Pakistan thus
creating financial problems for the locals.5
It is very obvious that once the policy of returning back the immigrants
became successful, immense opportunities would be left vacant. According
to government statistics, there are 300,000 Afghan refugees in Quetta alone,
4 Afghan refugees: A burden on Pakistan, the Balochistan point, july , 29, 2015

5 Afghan refugees occupying one million jobs, International the New, july, 1, 2016
and Pakistan has said it cannot cope with the burden. 6 In the capital of the
province, Quetta, not only in the government sector but also in the private
sector, these expatriates have acquired enormous posts. The jobs would not
only provide financial security but also prevent the youth from falling in the
hands of banned outfits and terrorist groups.
The heinous factor attached with the refugees is the security issue.
From suicide bombing to street crimes, in most of the cases the emigrants
are involved in it. Psychological disturbance exists everywhere: from traders
to students; from politicians to government officials. Insecurity persists in
every sphere of the society. NDS is patronizing these afghan settlers. The
brutal Quetta massacre was taken place with the assistance of Afghan spy
agency.
Balochistan Home Minister Sarfraz Bugti on Thursday claimed that
security agencies had detained six Afghan spy agency operatives from
Balochistan, who were involved in attacks on FC personnel and citizens, and
bomb blasts in the province. "The accused were involved in attacks on FC
personnel and citizens," Bugti told a news conference in Quetta. The minister
said that security agencies arrested six Afghan intelligence agents in a
successful operation in Balochistan7.
He further said that the Afghan refugees needed to go back to their
country as they were involved in terror activities including bomb blasts,
murders and target killings. The government would use force to expel the
Afghan refugees if the international community failed to take initiatives in
this regard. It is palpable that not only they are opened to banned
organizations but they have also under taken such attacks in the past.
Furthermore, Abdul Qadir Baloch, once in his interview with members of
UNHCR stated that no afghan refugee is in the watch list as a terror suspect.

6 Afghans increasingly being forced out of quetta, IRIN, 16, aug, 2001

7 Afghan refugees involved in terror activities: balochistan home minister claims, BUSINESS
RECORDER, may, 27, 2016
All these arguments, indeed, make situation ambiguous. But it is likely that
repatriation of refugees would affect law and order situation positively.
Madrasah culture which mushroomed after the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan has many centers in the Pashtun majority areas of Balochistan.
These religious seminaries are mostly occupied by the afghan refugees who
are more vulnerable to the terrorists. Refugees, being inaccessible to the
modern education, prefer the religious education. These institutions provide
not only Islamic education but also free education. The number of these
institution would be lessen and also their role too. Because, these fanatical
students do not hesitate to take any step with regard to any policy of limiting
the number and role of these institutions and also their teachers.
Indeed, the government is responsible for the proliferation of religious
seminaries. There are two factors basically which make the government
responsible for the spreading of madaris. Firstly, the youth which was
pouring-in in the country following the soviet invasion, Pakistan set these
institutions for using them as their weapon as a proxy. In these seminaries,
they were getting education free of cost. The reason for the madrassas new
centrality stems from the weakening of the Pakistani statethe madrassas
became immensely popular by targeting the lower class and refugee
populations, whom the Pakistani state has failed to provide proper access to
education.
Secondly, the sate failure in providing education facilities to the poor
inhabitants of the province left the latter with no other option than to send
them to these institutions. For young village kids, it may be their only path
to literacy. For many orphans and the rural poor, madrasahs provide
essential social services: education and lodging for children who otherwise
could well find themselves the victims of forced labor, sex trafficking, or
other abuse.8 The conglomeration of these factors contributed in spreading
of these institutions.
8Tahir Andrabi 1, Jishnu Das, Asim Ijaz Khwaja , Tristan Zajonc, Madrassa Metrics: The Statistics and
Rhetoric of Religious Enrollment in Pakistan
 The success of the policy of repatriation is the prerequisite for the
registration of these seminaries. Because, once this policy met with success,
only the registered students would be left behind. Furthermore, the burden of
these students, which Pakistan cannot bear, would be removed. The ground
would be set for the state to take measure so that the next generation could
be enlightened with the modern education. Additionally, they would be saved
from falling in the wrong hands.
The gate way for these refugees is another area which would be
affected by this new approach of the government: The Chaman border
between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Since the invasion, this porous border
plays an important role in trade of narcotics, drugs and not the least,
terrorism. In contemporary time, it is very easy to cross the border either
from Pakistan to Afghanistan or from Afghanistan to Pakistan. Many cases of
smuggling in the form of unregistered cars and other non-custom paid
materials have been registered. Quetta traffic police impounded 9,500
unregistered vehicles and 58 non-custom paid vehicles worth Rs9 billion last
year while recovering about Rs33 million in penalties from the violators.9
Drug smuggling is very easy not only to balochistan but it is smuggled
from Afghanistan through Balochistan to gulf countries and to Europe.
Usually, the drug trading way from Afghanistan to Pakistan forwards to the
rest of the world are the Torkham border crossing, Ghulam Khan, Kunjrab,
Wahga, and Karachi. Nevertheless, due to improved security, about sixty-two
substitute drug trafficking routes run through Baluchistan Province 10. All
these illegal smuggling is taking place because of unrestricted border. The
improvement in the condition of the province strongly depends on the
measures to be taken on the border. The sources claimed that 60per cent of

9 Smuggled vehicles worth rupees 9 million seized in Quetta, Express Tribune, January, 4, 2016

10 Afghanistan-Pakistan Drug Transit Routes, Voice of America, April, 30, 2015

smuggling would be curtailed, if strict surveillance and vigilance would be
conducted at Sheela Bagh check-post near Chaman Border.11
After the returning back of Afghan refugees back to their state, the
security situation at the border would ultimately be improved. As, it is now,
the refugees only required security check up of their belongings without any
documentations. After repatriation they would have to have proper visa and
passport as it is common for foreigners to enter in other sate entity. This
would restrict the inflow of terrorist, drugs and other non-custom-paid
materials.
The ongoing repatriation and deportation of Afghan refugees from
Pakistan has not only compelled them to sell valuable property and
businesses for a song but also abandon spouses with Pakistani nationality.
The ratio of inter-marriages between Pakistanis and Afghans is high,
especially between the Pashtuns who live on both sides of the border 12. Many
cases have brought forth in which wives refused to join their husbands to go
back to Afghanistan.

WAY FORWARD:
The above given are impacts of the repatriation of afghan refugees.
The issue is not that simple as it seems to be, indeed, a very perplexing
phenomenon. When the political impacts are concerned, it is of immense
benefit. Nevertheless, in case of social impacts, there are a lot to be done
rather than repatriation. First of all, as already mentioned, the economic
factor is going to have serious repercussions. Much of the capital would go
out of the banks. It would create a vacuum. Here, the government has to
intervene to fill that gap.

11 Smuggling of Rs 100m carried out daily thru Afghan Transit route: sources, Customs Today,
December, 25,2014

12Afghan refugee repatriation threaten to tear marriages apart, Daily Times August, 18, 2016
 The government has to start huge projects, so that the affected would
get employed in projects. Importantly, local businessmen would have to
come to the fore. The government has to ensure the security of the
entrepreneurs. One of the biggest social phenomenon emerging is the inter-
marriages between locals and refugees. In addition with the extension of
their time, the state should give nationalities to all those Afghans who have
Pakistani wives given that the former is not having any criminal record.
The root cause of all evil is the porous border between the two
neighbors. Once the policy became successful, the government would have
to ensure that no further cross-border movements take place. The proper
visa system should be enforced. Most important would be the governments
role in rescuing the future generation from falling in the hands of terrorists.
The influence of religious seminaries would have to loosen by providing an
ease access to modern education system to the lower class that is more
vulnerable to these banned outfits.

CONCLUSION:
Pakistan has committed to the policy of repatriation after hosting
afghan emigrants for more than three and a half decade. This would not be
out of challenges. The latters role have been trickle down to all spheres of
society. The success of this policy would have, no doubt, many advantages
but indeed it would have temporary setbacks. The political advantage would
be in the form of removal of one of the biggest concern of baloch people that
they have been dragged into minority. The atmosphere of insecurity would
be to some extent diminished. Job opportunities would be enhanced as
refugees would leave spaces vacant for the local population. However, all
these depend on the successful implementation of the policy of repatriation.
REFERENCES:
1) DAWN, Afghan refugees have to leave Pakistan come what may says
Safron minister, JUNE, 30, 2016
2) The Balochistan Point, NADRA: Disrupting demographics in
Balochisatn by issuing fake I,d cards aug, 12, 2015
3) DAWN, Force return of afghans to affect geo-political scenario of the
country, sep, 18, 2016
4) the balochistan point, Afghan refugees: A burden on Pakistan , july ,
29, 2015
5) international the news, Afghan refugees occupying one million jobs
july, 1, 2016
6) IRIN Afghans increasingly being forced out of quetta 16, aug, 2001
7) BUSINESS RECORDER, Afghan refugees involved in terror activities:
balochistan home minister claims may, 27,2016
8) Tahir Andrabi 1, Jishnu Das (The World Bank), Asim Ijaz Khwaja
(Harvard University), Tristan Zajonc (Harvard University), Madrassa
Metrics: The Statistics and Rhetoric of Religious Enrollment in Pakistan
9) Express Tribune, Smuggled vehicles worth rupees 9 million seized in
Quetta January, 4, 2016
10) Voice of America Afghanistan-Pakistan Drug Transit Routes
April, 30, 2015
11) Customs Today, Smuggling of Rs 100m carried out daily thru
Afghan Transit route: sources December, 25,2014
12) Daily Times, Afghan refugee repatriation threaten to tear
marriages apart August, 18, 2016