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Impact of Sea Level Rise in Scania Region, Sweden

Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund


University, Sweden
Kaleab Tekle Woldemariam, September 25/2016

Inundated Roads (m)


Abstract Introduction 700,000
14.2%

Length of road (m)


600,000
One of the prominent effects of human induced Future sea level rise predictions are uncertain (Willis and Church, 2012). 21.3% Length,
500,000
5-7 m width
climate change caused by fossil fuel emissions, One study found that even a low-emissions scenario (RCP3-PD) could yield 400,000
12.5% roads (m)
deforestation, agricultural and industrial releases is sea 13 m SLR by 2300 (Schaeffer et al. 2012). Another found that a high- 300,000 6.0%
level rise (SLR) on coastal and island areas. Recent emissions scenario (RCP8.5) could yield 212 m SLR by 2500 (Jevrejeva et 200,000 Length,
3.1% 6.4%
100,000 >7 m width
studies show the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate al. 2012). Scania, as a coastal province, is vulnerable to SLR, one of the
- roads(m)
Change (IPCC) estimate on the rate of sea level rise is facets of climate change.
underestimated. The studies suggest ,the forecasted 2m SLR 5m SLR 10m SLR
rate of sea level rise may be 60% faster than the IPCC This study employs spatial analysis techniques to determine infrastructures Sea Level Rise scenario
projections. The social, environmental, and economic disrupted (roads and railways), lakes inundated, landuse flooded and people
impact on coastal communities can not be overstated. displaced under SLR scenario of 2m,5m and 10m in the province. Inundated Railroads (m)
200,000 26.3%

Length of railroad (m)


This study analyses the impact on infrastructures, Methods 150,000 Single-tracked
natural resources and population displacement as a The datasets used for this study were a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), 15.1% railroads
100,000
result of projected SLR scenarios of 2m, 5m and 10m shapefiles of roads, railways (polylines), lake, population and Scania 9.7%
Double-tracked
on the Scania region, Southern Sweden. (polygon) shapefiles (Figure 1). ArcGIS10.3 was used to for geoprocessing 50,000 railroads
tasks. 4.4% 4.4% 8.4%
0
Roads/Railroads The three flooding rasters of 2m, 5m and 10m scenarios were computed by 2m SLR 5m SLR 10m SLR
Land use Sea Level Rise scenario
running a batch of conditional statements on the DEM (e.g. Con
Adminstrative
Area ("demscania_proj_clip.tif" <= 2,1,0) yielding 2m_SLR.tif). Each resulting
Water Surface inundation raster was converted to a vector polygon. Then the input features Inundated Lake Areas (km2)
DEM (road, railroad, lakes, population shapefiles) was clipped by the three 120.0
(95.8,34.1%)

Area od Lake ( km2)


Population inundation polygons. Length and area computations were performed by 100.0 (91.0,32.3%)
selecting the attribute tables of the clipped features. 80.0
Figure 1: Datasets used in the Study. 60.0
(40.5,14.4%) Lake Area
40.0
Results 20.0
(km2)

-
2m SLR 5m SLR 10m SLR
Sea Level Rise scenario

Conclusion
The study indicates the projection scenarios impacts on infrastructure, water resources, and population
displacement needs the immediate attention and adapation policy from municipalities at risk in the region.

References:
Jacob von Oelreich, Annika Carlsson-Kanyama, sa Svenfelt & Per Wikman-Svahn (2015) Planning for future sea-level rise in Swedish municipalities, Local
Environment, 20:4, 459-473, DOI: 10.1080/13549839.2013.834881.

John A. Church and Neil J. White 2011. Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century. Surveys in Geophysics, Volume 32, Issue 4-5, pp 585-602.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10712-011-9119-1 .

Stefan Rahmstorf, Grant Foster and Anny Cazenave 2012. Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011. IOP Press Release.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044035/article.

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