URBAN TRANSPORTATION

MODELING SYSTEM (UTMS)

Engr. Francis F. Villareal
Civil Engineer
Urban and Transportation Planner/Transportation Engineer
BASIC CHANGES THAT AFFECT THE
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Changes in the demand for
transportation
Changes in technology
Changes in values
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TRANSPORTATION
SYSTEM AND ACTIVITY SYSTEM
Travel and land use characteristics.
Road infrastructure and land/housing
development.
Land Use affects Level 0f Service (LOS) of vehicle
trips.
Land management system and traffic
management measures.
Land use zoning policies and fuel/environmental
policies.
LAND USE-TRANSPORTATION
INTERACTION
DEMAND AND SUPPLY ON THE TRANSPORT
MARKET
MODELS NEEDED FOR ANALYSIS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
TRAFFIC MODELING GOALS
OTHER USES OF A MODEL
OPENING THE BLACK BOX
TYPICAL INPUTS
TYPICAL INPUTS
TYPICAL INPUTS
TYPICAL INPUTS
SOURCES OF DATA
SURVEYS
ZONING AND NETWORK BUILDING
ZONING AND NETWORK BUILDING
ZONING AND NETWORK BUILDING
ZONING AND NETWORK BUILDING
ZONING AND NETWORK BUILDING
PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK
PUBLIC TRANSPORT ACCESS CODING
TRIP PURPOSES
LAND USE MAP
LAND USE AND ROAD NETWORK
FOUR STEP MODEL
DIAGRAM OF THE 4-STEP MODEL
MODELING THE INTERACTION OF LAND
USE AND TRANSPORTATION
 KEY CONCEPTS OF UTPS OR UTMS
TAZ: Traffic Analysis Zone
A TAZ is an arbitrary subdivision of the study area
TAZs are used in trip generation and trip distribution
TAZs may be any shape or size, but US Census
Blocks, Block Groups, and Tracts are often used

Block Block Group Tract

i.e., a
city block
 KEY CONCEPTS OF UTPS OR UTMS
Centroid
Every TAZ (Gate and Internal Zone) has a centroid,
usually placed roughly at the geographic center of the
TAZ
All trips to or from a TAZ are assumed to start or end
at the centroid
Discussion
Why do we use TAZs and centroids to model trips?
 Centroid

Gate TAZ
Every zone is a node (the centroid) with an identifier and type
 KEY CONCEPTS OF UTPS
Gate TAZs
TAZs placed outside the Study Area where major
roads cross the boundaries of the study area
Used to model External Trips (i.e., trips with an
origin or destination or both outside the study area)
Gate TAZs represent all areas outside of the study
area
Network

Gate TAZ

(Study Area)
TRIP GENERATION
TRIP GENERATION
TRIP GENERATION OBJECTIVES
Estimate amount of trip making going out of a
TAZ
Estimate amount of trip making going into a TAZ

Account for differences among TAZs due to

person and household characteristics
Account for differences among TAZs due to
business (establishments) characteristics
Develop functions to predict future amount of
trip making
TRIP GENERATION USUAL PROCESS
Collect Data, usually by Surveys and Census
Sociodemographic Data and Travel Behavior Data
Create Trip Generation Models
Estimate the number of Productions and
Attractions for each TAZ, by Trip Purpose
Balance Productions and Attractions for each
Trip Purpose
Total number of Productions and Attractions must be
equal for each Trip Purpose
UNITS AND MODELS
TAZ-based models = productions and attractions
converted to origins and destinations

Household and/or person - based models = origins

and destinations

Establishment - based = attractions need to

convert to destinations
RELATED DEFINITIONS 1+2+3=Tour or Trip
Chain (home-based)
1.Home-based school trip

Home School

2.NonHome-based
work trip

Work
3. Home-based
work trip
PRODUCTIONS - ATTRACTIONS
All Home - Based Trips
Production Attraction
Residential Non-Residential
Production Attraction
Area Area

Non - Home - Based Trips

Production Attraction
Non-Residential Non-Residential
Attraction Production
Area Area

= Origin
= Destination
SAMPLED MODELED TRIP GENERATION OF
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
TAZ ISSUES
TAZ Scale Modeling Accuracy Data Availability

Block Good Poor

Block Group Not Good Excellent

Tract Poor Good

Data availability limited by privacy issues

Larger TAZs, with complete data, are no longer
necessarily homogeneous
Model accuracy decreases with larger TAZs
TRADITIONAL TRIP GENERATION
Input: social and economic characteristics
Output: productions/attractions,
origins/destinations by zone
Key concepts: trip generation by purpose maybe
more accurate but some purposes easier to
predict (trips to work)
Other: Goods movement productions/attractions
are handled in a similar way (Freight
Forecasting Manual exists)
TRIP GENERATION METHODS
TRIP GENERATION
TRIP GENERATION
TRIP GENERATION
Growth Factor
Used in early transport studies
Relates data collected in travel studies to data
collected in land use survey to develop trip
generation rates for major land uses
Trip generation is applied to forecasted land area to
get future trips and involves land use forecasting
Different land uses inherently possess attributes
which result in different trip rates
Several land use categories are established
Future land uses are estimated
Calculated trip rates are applied to projected land
use areas to get future travel demand
SAMPLE Data
Zone Land Use Area (m2) Present Trip Gen
Trips Rate
(ADT)
1 Commercial 780 2808 3.6

2 Manufactur 1520 2432 1.6

ing

3 Services 915 2562 2.8

4 Residential 610 2562 4.2

SAMPLE Data CONTN
Zone Future Area (m2) Future Trips
(ADT)
1 810 2916

2 1500 2400

3 980 2744

4 1120 4704
TRIP GENERATION
TRIP GENERATION
Regression Model
Used to estimate and predict trip production
and trip attraction
Multiple Regression Model
Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + . . . . . + bnXn

Where: Y = no. of trips

b0 = regression constant
bn = regression coefficients
Xn = socio-economic factors influencing
trips
TRIP GENERATION- CORRELATION
MODEL
Coefficient of Correlation

Coefficient of Determination, R2
It is simply the square of the sample correlation
coefficient between the outcomes and their predicted
values. It indicates how well the data points fit the
line or the curve, in other words, it gives some
information about the goodness-of-fit of the model.
 TRIP GENERATION- MULTIPLE
CORRELATION

Multiple Correlation is by determining the

suitability of the model from itself to the
observed data using method of coefficient of
multiple determination R2

The value of R2 = SSR/SST

The value of SST = SSR + SSE
Where SSR is the sum squares of regression
Where SST is the total sum of squares
Where SSE is the sum of squares due to error or
residual
SAMPLE PROBLEM 1
It is assumed that the zonal daily trip production of residential
land is a function of a single land use variable which is the total
number of motor cars owned by residents. The study area is
permitted into 8 traffic analysis zones (TAZs). The following
traffic survey data is shown:
Traffic survey data

TAZ Trip Production Car Ownership

1 500 200
2 300 50
3 1300 500
4 200 100
5 400 100
6 1200 400
7 900 300
8 1000 400
SAMPLE PROBLEM 1..CONT
Based from the study, it is required to determine
the regression equation and draw the regression
line.
What type of correlation the study has?

If the minimum criteria for a transport study is

0.30, does the study passes this criteria?
SAMPLE PROBLEM 2
A particular town in Cavite has recently
conducted a traffic survey of its 10 Traffic
Analysis Zones (TAZs). The data collected are
summarized in the table shown.
Based on the given information, develop a multi
regression analysis in the form:
T = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2
Where T is the total no. of trips, X1 is the no. of
population and X2 is the no. of Households
OBSERVED TRIPS AND ZONAL ACTIVITY
TAZ Trip in ADT No. of No. of
Population Household

1 5126 7212 2488

2 3764 4818 2188
3 4030 3789 2423
4 3921 5805 2141
5 1644 3054 1241
6 4467 10463 3451
7 3407 2735 1857
8 1143 1784 905
9 3202 4418 1695
10 3900 6657 1960
SAMPLE PROBLEM 3
It is assumed that the zonal daily trip production
rate of a certain land use is a function of
population density and household income . The
study area is permitted into 10 traffic analysis
zones (TAZs). The following traffic survey data is
shown:
Based from the study, it is required to determine
the regression equation.
Interpret the derived regression equation.

What type of correlation the study has?

If the minimum criteria for a transport study is

0.30, does the study passes this criteria?
TRAFFIC DATA
TAZ Trip Rate Population Household
(trips/HH/d) Density(HH/A) Income(000
Php/annum)
1 5.8 18.1 14.3
2 10.1 18.8 15
3 9.7 7.4 15.9
4 7.4 27 8.7
5 8.5 13.9 25.3
6 6.4 26.1 9.3
7 9.3 12.4 23.2
8 12.6 4.8 33.2
9 8.2 22 21.6
10 10.5 13.3 28.4
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
We link production or origin zones to attraction
or destination zones
A trip matrix is produced
The cells within the trip matrix are the
trip interchanges between zones
TAZ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1
2
3
Zone 1
4
5
Trip Matrix
6
7
8
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Basic Assumptions of Trip
Distribution
I. Number of trips decrease with COST
between zones
II. Number of trips increase with zone
attractiveness
Methods of Trip Distribution
I. Growth Factor Models
II. Gravity Model
TRIP DISTRIBUTION OBJECTIVES
Replicate spatial pattern of trip making
Account for spatial separation among origins and
destinations (proximity in terms of time, cost, & other
factors)
Account for attractiveness among TAZs

Reflect human behavior

TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Convert Production and Attraction Tables into Origin
- Destination (O - D) Matrices

Destinations
TAZ P A
Origins 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sum
1 15 22
1 T11 T12 T13 T14 T15 T16 O1
2 13 6
2 T21 T22 T23 T24 T25 T26 O2
3 26 5
3 T31 T32 T33 T34 T35 T36 O3
4 18 52
4 T41 T42 T43 T44 T45 T46 O4
5 8 2
5 T51 T52 T53 T54 T55 T56 O5
6 13 6
6 T61 T62 T63 T64 T65 T66 O6
Sum 93 93
Sum D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6
MODEL COMPARISON
Model Advantages Disadvantages
Growth Factor Simple Does not reflect changes in the
Easy to balance origin and frictions between zones
destination trips at any Does not reflect changes in the
zone network
Gravity Specific account of friction Requires extensive calibration
and interaction between Long iterative process
zones
Intervening - Does not require origin - Accounts for only relative
Opportunities destination data changes in time - distance
Claimed to bear a better relationship between zones
fit to actual traffic Arbitrary choice of
probability factor

New: Destination choice models build on intervening opportunities

GRAVITY MODEL PROCESS
1. Create Shortest Path Matrix
- Minimize Link Cost between Centroids
2. Estimate Friction Factor Parameters
- Function of Trip Length Characteristics by Trip
Purpose
3. Calculate Friction Factor Matrix
4. Convert Productions and Attractions to Origins
and Destinations
5. Calculate Origin - Destination Matrix
6. Enforce Constraints on O - D Matrix
- Iterate Between Enforcing Total Origins and
Destinations
SHORTEST PATH MATRIX
Matrix of Minimum Generalized Cost from any Zone i
to any Zone j
Distance, Time, Monetary Cost, Waiting Time, Transfer
Time, etc.. may be used in Generalized Cost
Time or Distance Often Used
Matrix Not Necessarily
Symmetric (Effect of TAZ TAZ ID
One - Way Streets) ID 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 C16
2 C21 C22 C23 C24 C25 C26
3 C31 C32 C33 C34 C35 C36
4 C41 C42 C43 C44 C45 C46
5 C51 C52 C53 C54 C55 C56
6 C61 C62 C63 C64 C65 C66
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Some of the More Popular Growth

Factor Models
I. Uniform Growth Factor
II. Average Factor
III. Fratar Method
IV. Furness Method
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Uniform Growth Factor
Earliest trip distribution method used
Assumes that all zones will increase in a uniform
manner and that the existing traffic pattern will
be the same for the future when growth is
considered
Model Equation
Tij = tij for each pair i and j
Tij = Future Trip Matrix
tij = Base-year Trip Matrix
= General Growth Rate
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Average Factor Method
Takes account of the varying growth
rates of trip-making in different zones
Model Equation
tij = tij x (EGi + EAj)/2

Where: EGi = Gi /gi

EAj = Aj/aj
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
FRATAR METHOD
This method assumes that the distribution of
future trips from a given zone of origin is
proportional to the present trip distribution from
that zone
Model Equation:

tij = tij x (EGi x EAj) x tik/ (Ak/ak) tik

TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Furness Method
The trip flows from a zone are balanced in
terms of generations from each zone and then
productions to a zone is balanced
Equation Model
tij = tij x Gi/gi
tij = tij x Aj/( trips attracted to j in
previous iteration)
tij = tij x Gi/( trips produced by i in
previous iteration)
SAMPLE PROBLEM
Find the future trips of the O-D trip
matrix survey shown for 4 Traffic
Analysis Zones (TAZ) using the following
methods:
Average Factor
Fratar
Furness
Use 0.02% relative error to stop iteration.
 Given O-D Matrix Survey Data
Present and future generated and attracted trips
zone A B C D
gi 1100 700 1300 600
aj 800 800 1000 1100
Gi 3000 1200 2700 2400
Aj 1800 3000 3500 1000
Present O-D trip Matrix
O/D A B C D
A - 400 400 300
B 200 - 300 200
C 400 300 - 600
D 200 100 300 -
MODAL SPLIT
MODAL SPLIT
It attempts to estimate the total
amount of patronage on different
transport modes and to indicate the
spatial pattern of this demand
MODAL SPLIT
Types of mode choice models
Disaggregate- Used to model individual
trip making behavior. It is based on utility
function
Trip End- This is applied before trips are
distributed and predict transit share as a
function of independent variables.
Trip Interchange- This is applied after
trips are distributed and predict transit
share as a function of independent
variables.
Examples of disaggregate models
Logit or mutlinomial logit models
based on utility function.
Utility function measures the degree of
satisfaction that people derive from their
choices
Disutility function represents the
generalized cost associated with each
choice.
Utility function
Sample Utility Function
LOGIT MODEL
Multi-Nomial Logit Model
LOGIT MODEL
NESTED MODE CHOICE
NESTED MODE CHOICE
SAMPLE PROBLEM
Suppose an individual can travel to work by
driving alone, car pooling or riding the bus whose
utility is expresses as U = - t (50c/I)
Find the utility function if his monthly income is
P40,000
P10,000
P2,000
Mode t (hrs) c(P)
Drive alone (car) 0.50 200.00
Car pooling (FX) 0.75 100.00
Bus 1.0 75.00
SAMPLE PROBLEM - CONTINUATION
Suppose that the quality of transit service is improved so
that travel time for bus is 0.75hr, what is your findings
based on the new utility function?
Based from the computed utility function in the 1st
condition, what is the market share between the 3 modes of
transportation if there are 5000 daily trips between two
zones?
Based from the computed utility function in the 2nd
condition, what is the market share between the 3 modes of
transportation if there are 5000 daily trips between two
zones?
SAMPLE PROBLEM 2
The calibrated utility functions for car and
transit travel are expressed:
U(car) = -0.30-0.04X-0.1Y-0.03C
U(transit) = -0.04X-0.1Y-0.03C
Trip characteristics

Using the Logit model, what is the probability

that a person with income of $30,000 will travel
by transit?
Attribute Car Transit
In-vehicle travel time in min (X) 15 20
Out-vehicle travel time in min (Y) 5 10
Travel Cost (C) in cents/income 900 225
TRIP ASSIGNMENT
TRIP ASSIGNMENT
TRIP ASSIGNMENT
Traffic Assignment
Uses of Traffic Assignment
PATH SELECTION CRITERIA
PATH SELECTION CRITERIA
CLASSIFICATION OF STATIC ASSIGNMENT
METHODS
Highway Trip Assignment
Transit Assignment
Some Trip Assignment Models
All-or-Nothing
Speed versus Volume Curve

Level of Service (LOS)

Capacity Restraint (BRP)

Equilibrium Wardrops Rule

All-or-Nothing
Speed-Volume Relation
Level of Service for Road Transport
(veh/lane/hr)
Capacity Restraint
Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) Formula
DAVIDSON METHOD (BPR)
Equilibrium Wardrops Rule
SIMPLE TRANSIT NETWORK
ALL OR NOTHING ASSIGNMENT RESULTS
STOCHASTIC USER EQUILIBRIUM
ASSIGNMENT RESULTS
Trip Assignment Procedures

1. Minimum-Path Techniques.

Minimum-path techniques are based on the assumption that travelers

want to use the minimum impedance route between two points.
The trip between zones are loaded onto the links making up the
minimum path. This technique is sometimes referred to as all-or-
nothing because all trips between a given origin and destination are
loaded on the links comprising the minimum path and nothing is loaded
on the other links.
After all possible interchanges are considered, the result is an estimate
of the volume on each link in the network.
This method can cause some links to be assigned more travel volume
than the link has capacity at the original assumed speed.
SAMPLE PROBLEM
Based from the given O-D trip matrix used in trip distribution,
the given network diagram of trip zones with links of distances in
kilometers is shown:
Based from the given traffic information, find the shortest path by
all-or-nothing trip assignment method, assigned trips in veh-km
and draw the volume of vehicles on the assigned road links.
O-D Trip Matrix
O/D I II III IV V
I - 50 60 70 30
II 40 - 30 60 80
III 90 40 - 20 50
IV 80 70 90 - 30
V 30 40 50 60 -
 15km

3km

8km 7km
5km 5km
12km

6km
 ASSIGNED TRIPS

1920 660
1470

1050 1250

2760
Example: Assign the vehicle trips shown in the O-D trip
table to the network shown in Figure 12.20 using the all-or-
nothing assignment technique. Make a list of the links in
the network and indicate the volume assigned to each.
Calculate the total vehicle minutes of travel. Show the
minimum path and assign traffic for each of the five nodes.

1 8min 3min 3

5min 2 7min
5min
12min
5 6min 4
Solution:
A freeway section 10 miles long has a free-flow speed of 60 mph. Qmax
= 2000 veh/hr, Q = 1000 veh/hr, = 0.1, = 0.474, and = 4, and T0 =
10min. Apply the (a) Davidsons and BPRs methods to find TQ.
Results of the 4-Step Model
MODEL OUTPUTS
MODEL OUTPUTS
MODEL OUTPUTS
MODEL OUTPUTS
MODEL OUTPUTS
MODEL OUTPUTS