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DOI 10.1007/s11852-010-0090-7
Received: 24 August 2009 / Revised: 19 November 2009 / Accepted: 27 January 2010 / Published online: 23 February 2010
# Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010
Abstract Low-elevation coastal areas and their populations Keywords Storm surge . Modelling . Inundation .
are at risk during and after the appearance of a storm surge Sea level rise . Mediterranean Sea
event. Coastal flooding as a result of storm surge events is
investigated in this paper for a number of areas around the
north-eastern (NE) Mediterranean coastal zone (Adriatic, Introduction
Aegean and north Levantine seas). The sea level rise (SLR)
due to storm surge events is examined for the period 2000 Storm surge is a rise of water associated with a moving low
2004. Wind data, atmospheric pressure and wave data for pressure weather system (cyclone). Storm surges are a
this period as well as in situ sea elevation measurements result of low pressure meteorological systems creating
(from stations around the Mediterranean coasts) were used. suction over the covered area of ocean and of the heavy
Potential inundation zones were then identified using a winds usually present in storms. Several processes are
90-m horizontal resolution digital elevation model (DEM). important during a storm surge event: (1) the Ekman
At these zones, the sea surface elevations were calculated transport by winds parallel to the coast may move water
for the study period, using the collected data and a 2D towards the coast, depending on the coast-wind orientation,
storm surge simulation model (1/10o1/10o) output, exam- causing a rise in sea level, (2) winds blowing toward the
ining the sea level alteration in specific coastal areas, where coast push water directly toward the coast, (3) wave set-up
in situ measurements are absent and are characterised as and other wave interactions transport water towards the
risky in inundation areas, due to their topography. In coast adding to the first two processes, (4) edge waves
order to determine the level of storm track implication on generated by the wind travel along the coast, (5) the low
major SLR incidents, the trajectories of the respective storm pressure inside the storm raises sea level by one centimetre
events were computed. The aim of this paper is to investigate for each mbar decrease in pressure through the inverted-
the major storm surge events that appeared during the study barometer effect, and (6) the storm surge adds to the tides,
period, identify the major risky costal regions along the and high tides can change a relative weak surge into a much
north-eastern Mediterranean coast and determine their hazard more dangerous one. Low-elevation coastal areas and their
level due to inundation caused by storm surge phenomena. populations are at risk during and after the appearance of a
The combination of the risk level determination of an area storm surge event. Any rise in sea level will have adverse
and the calculation of sea level alteration is an important tool impacts (e.g. coastal erosion and flooding) which depend
in terms of predicting and protecting the coastal area from on the time scale and the magnitude of the rise, as well as
extreme meteorological incidents. the associated human response (Paskoff 1993). High sea
levels and the strong forces exerted by accompanying
Y. N. Krestenitis (*) : Y. S. Androulidakis : Y. N. Kontos : waves, impact directly or by over-topping sea defences on
G. Georgakopoulos humans, property and habitats. They may even cause loss
Laboratory of Maritime Engineering & Maritime Works,
of life, damage (through inundation and waves), loss of
School of Civil Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki,
54124 Thessaloniki, Greece habitat and useful land, property, infrastructure, services
e-mail: ynkrest@civil.auth.gr and so forth.
354 Y.N. Krestenitis et al.
Coastal flooding as a result of storm surge events is a evaluate the models performance at open sea, because the
possible threat in Eastern Mediterranean coasts. Travelling accuracy of satellite data close to the coast is not high
mid-latitude low pressure systems act to raise the sea level enough.
directly below them, but this effect alone is quite weak in The astronomical tide surge ranges in low levels (few
semi enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean Sea centimetres) in the Mediterranean region because it is
(Pirazzoli 2000), where the wind tends to be the dominant nearly landlocked, with the only major opening to open
force. Although, the Mediterranean Sea is not on the main seas being the Strait of Gibraltar. According to Pugh
storm track of the European and North Atlantic area (1996), basins of oceanic depths such as the Mediterranean
(Rogers 1997), storm track events originated mainly from Sea, which connect to the oceans through narrow entrances,
Africa, with a direction from south-west (SW) to north-east have small tidal ranges. The same author (Pugh 1996),
(NE) affect significantly local sea-surface elevation at claims that the dimensions of these basins are too restricting
north-east Mediterranean coasts. In the 20002004 period for the direct tidal forces to have much effect and the areas
several storm surge events appeared in the Mediterranean, of the entrances are too small for sufficient oceanic tidal
where despite their birth area, they affected particularly the energy to enter to compensate for the energy losses which
east (E) and NE region due to their major trajectory to the would be associated with large tidal amplitudes. Because
north-east. the connection with the Atlantic Ocean through the Straits
The main objectives of this paper are (a) to determine of Gibraltar is so restricted, the influence of direct
significant storm surge events that appeared during the gravitational forcing within the Mediterranean is probably
study period and examine their major tracks and magnitude, of comparable importance to the external forcing. In spite
(b) to correlate these meteorological events to the respective of this, in the storm surge modelling section, that is
sea level alterations along the NE Mediterranean coast, (c) described in chapter 2.3, the Atlantic tide contribution was
to determine the low elevation coastal areas and their risk included in the simulations as a boundary condition in the
level to inundation due to storm surge events and (d) to open boundary at the Gibraltar Straits. Therefore, the
examine each storm surge process importance to the sea astronomical tide was not removed from the in-situ data,
level alterations in each sub-domain of the study area. because it is believed that it does not severely bias the
analysis (Moron & Ullmann, 2005). The storm surge
contribution (meteorological tide) is the most important
Methods and data factor to sea level height alteration measured at the above
East Mediterranean stations with the exception of the north
Atmospheric and sea elevation data Adriatic region, where according to Pugh (1996), the
diurnal tides of the area are relatively large (in the vicinity
Sea level pressure (SLP), wind fields (POSEIDON fore- of Venice) because a natural oscillation is excited by the
casting system, http://www.poseidon.hcmr.gr) and wave Mediterranean tides at the southern Adriatic entrance. So,
data (wave height, direction and wave period), based on especially in this area, the combination of tidal and storm
the wave model SWANSimulating Waves Nearshore surge, as described in chapter 3.1, can produce significantly
(Soukissian et al. 2007) on a 1/10 1/10 grid covering high SLRs.
the entire Mediterranean basin, were used for the period
20002004. In order to verify and calibrate the storm surge Storm surge detection and storm-track computation
model sea level height (SLH) data from gauge stations
around the Mediterranean were collected from the websites A method for automated detection and tracking of storms or
of the Med-GLOSS program (Monitoring Network System cyclones was developed by the National Aeronautics and
for Systematic Sea Level Measurements in the Mediterra- Space AdministrationGoddard Institute for Space Studies
nean and Black Sea, http://medgloss.ocean.org.il/), the (NASA-GISS, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/stormtracks). A
European Sea-level Service (http://www.eseas.org/) and version of the NASAs methodology is used in this study,
the Greek Hydrographic Service (http://www.hnhs.gr/ as described below. Storm tracks can be identified by
portal/page/portal/HNHS) (Fig. 1). Additional sea-level following low pressure centres on synoptic charts and
data were collected by using satellite data concerning the plotting their trajectories on maps, thereby producing
study period and area. The altimetry data were collected cyclone tracks in the pure sense. The major objectives of
from the French space agency (Aviso/Altimetry project, this analysis are a) the identification of the major incidents
http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/). These data derived during the study period and b) the investigation of their
from the composition of various scans of different satellite atmospheric characteristics such are their direction and
projects (Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, ERS-1 and ERS-2, pressure magnitude in order to relate them with the
EnviSat, and Doris). The satellite data were mostly used to respective SLR incidents.
Coastal inundation in the north-eastern mediterranean coastal zone 355
Alexandroupolis
Otranto
40
Lefkada Chios
Antalya
Catania
35
Gauge Stations
Low Elevation Areas
10 15 20 25 30 35
The computation and plotting of storm tracks is throughout the full duration of a storm track, the low
accomplished by using an algorithm that identifies and pressure center of the track must be less than 1015 hPa.
tracks sea level pressure (SLP) minima (Pmin). The In this way, storm tracks are computed and plotted for
algorithm searches for and identifies absolute minima from the Mediterranean region. The use of absolute minimum
the gridded field of every 12-hour period of the desired SLPs instead of local minima (like NASAs method)
year. The minimum for the ensuing 12-hour SLP grid is produces the risk of not identifying some storm tracks
searched and its position is located. Any Pmin within a generated by the passage of secondary low pressure centers.
critical radius of 1440 km are joined by a segment, For that, but also for presentation reasons and visual
representing the path of the low pressure center during that confirmation, a SLP contour map for every 12-hour period
12-hour period (a cyclone"s center can travel at a mean is produced, creating a slideshow of 730 maps (732 for leap
speed of no more than 120 km/hr or 1440 km / 12 hr) years) for every year, presenting low pressure regions
(NASA-GISS, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/stormtracks). Any (SLP<=1015mBars) and their development.
two associated minima identify one storm track segment, From the analysis of the whole series of storm events the
as long as the storm lasts at least 36 h. If at any time two following resulted: a) The majority of the storm surges in
segments on the same track are found to define an acute the Mediterranean region are directed from West to East
angle of less than 85 (NASA-GISS, http://data.giss.nasa. (Fig. 1. and b) the highest depression P (P=PRPmin,
gov/stormtracks), the low pressure centers are considered to where PR is the reference atmospheric pressure equals to
represent separate storms (extra tropical cyclones are not 1015 hPa) varies mainly between 1020 hPa, (Fig. 2a). In
found to double back on themselves over 12 h). Finally, Fig. 2b, events from the whole study period (20002004)
are presented, showing the mean P value of each event. where t is the time, x and y are the spatial coordinates,
The directions are the same presented in Fig. 2a as far as is the water level elevation above the mean sea level, U
the minimum pressure values are concerned, but the P and V are the xy components of the depth-mean current,
now is lower and it varies around 10 hPa. H=(h+) is the total water depth (h is the undisturbed
water depth and is the water level), g is the
Storm surge modelling acceleration of gravity, f is the Coriolis parameter, sx
and sy are the x and y components of the wind stress, bx
A 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model solving the depth- and by are the x and y components of sea bottom stress,
averaged shallow-water equations is used to provide the sea Sxx, Sxy and Syy are the wave radiation stresses, is the
level for entire Mediterranean basin on a 1/10o 1/10o density of the water and P is the atmospheric pressure at
spatial grid. The 2D model is an updated version of the sea level.
AUT storm surge model (DeVries et al. 1995), with The calculation of the wind stress is based on the wind
the following forms of the momentum Eqs. 1 and 2 and velocity data at 10 m, according to the formula of Eq. 4:
the continuity Eq. 3:
t sx rA CS jW jWx & t sy rA CS jW jWy 4
@U @U @V @z
U V fV g
@t @x @y @x
where is the air density, W=(Wx, Wy) is the wind
1 @P t sx t bx 1 @Sxx @Sxy velocity and CS is the surface friction coefficient. Two
1
r @x rH rH @x @y deferent formulas of the surface friction coefficient were
0.1 0.1
in-situ (m)
in-situ (m)
-0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5
-0.1 -0.1
-0.3 -0.3
a b
-0.5 -0.5
model (m) model (m)
0.5 0.5
0.1 0.1
in-situ (m)
insitu (m)
-0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5
-0.1 -0.1
-0.3 -0.3
d c
-0.5 -0.5
model (m) model (m)
used in the present model, i.e. the Eq. 5 (Smith and Banke, The bottom stress is related to the water velocity by the
1975) and Eq. 6 (Amorocho and DeVries, 1980): following expression:
p p
Cs 0:63 0:066W 103 t bx rCD U U 2 V 2 & t by rCD V U 2 V 2 7
Cs 1:04 103 for W7:0m=s; Cs 2:54 103 for W20:0m=s where CD is the bottom drag coefficient and using the law
5 of the wall in the bottom logarithmic layer (Wang, 2002),
and it is computed according the following equation:
( 2 )
and 103 Cs 0:115 W 0:235; 7:0m=s W 1 H
CD max ln 1 ; 0:0025 8
k zo
20:0 m=s 6
Table 3 Potential inundation areas in km2 and the respective coastline length (km) and density population of each area (persons / km2)
Potential inundation area (km2) Front length (km) Population density n (persons / km2)
where is the Von Karman constant and zo is the sea- where Aj is the amplitude, j the frequency and j the
bottom roughness here set equal to 0.001. phase of the j tidal constituent respectively.
The wave radiation stresses used in the momentum Several applications of the storm surge model have been
equations were calculated from the wave height and carried out in order to test and calibrate the model. Some of
direction, according to the following equations: these applications are indicated in Table 1.
The calibration procedure was based on the calculation
Sxx E 2n 1 Encos2 a of the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Pearson
Sxy Syx E2 n sin2a 9 product-moment correlation coefficient (r) between the
Syy E2n 1 En sin2 a measured and the computed SLH timeseries, for a number
of stations in Adriatic and Aegean Sea. In Table 2, the
where E is the wave energy density and is the wave RMSE and r values for the six model applications
propagation direction. (indicated in Table 1) and for 6 stations, are presented for
The 2D storm surge model has been implemented in the the model run with the 2004 year forcing. Also, the scatter
entire Mediterranean basin on a 1/10o1/10o grid. The model diagrams for two stations (one in N. Aegean and the other
forced with the data assimilated atmospheric forecast fields, in Adriatic) are presented in Fig. 3, for two different yearly
provided by the POSEIDON system, based on the atmo- forcing, i.e. years 2002 and 2004, showing an acceptable
spheric SKIRON Limited Area Model (LAM) (Papadopoulos performance of the model for the scope of this article,
et al., 2002) and with wave data for the period 20002004. especially for high SLH values, which in any case are the
Tidal boundary conditions where imposed in the Gibraltar most important in a SLR investigation. Overestimation of
open boundary by using specific tidal components measured the low (below mean sea level) values is observed, where
in the areas station (Ceuta) and the tidal harmonic analysis the model results show differences with the respective
Eq. 10. measured ones. After the calibration procedure, the expe-
X riment chosen, as the best one was the 3 rd experiment, with
zt Aj cos wj t x 10 the higher values of the correlation coefficient and lower
j values of RMSE for most of the testing cases.
Digital elevation model The Venice Lagoon and its city Venice is characterised by
significantly high population (Table 3) and is very sensitive
Potential inundation zones were calculated from the 90-m to water level variations, given that the city of Venice is
resolution shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) digital only about 1 m above mean sea level and the average depth
elevation model (DEM) (http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org). SRTM- of the lagoon is 1.5 m. Especially, according to Bondesan et
DEM has spatial horizontal resolution of 90 m and absolute al. (1995) south of Venice city e.g. around the Po delta,
vertical accuracy of 15 m in the mainland and less than 1 m areas with more than 2 m below sea level widespread exist.
over the coastal zone (Sun et al. 2003). According to it, According to the same authors the total coastal area below
high risk areas in NE Mediterranean are located at the sea level between the main river courses in NE Italy is
northern coast of Adriatic Sea, at Dalmatian coast, at about 2375,48 km2. In this study, the calculated potential
Albanian coast, at central-eastern Italian coast, at western inundation area that extends inland even more than 50 km
Greek coast, at the North East Aegean coastal zone, and at is conclusively 6300 km2. Venice has long been famous for
south-east Turkey (Fig. 1). The potential inundation area being the city that is partially under water where 1 m of
and the coastline length of each detected region is presented extra water above the expected astronomical high tide
in Table 3. All these areas are characterized for their wide results in significant flooding (aqua alta); the severest flood
coastal zone with a surface elevation less than 1.0 m. which occurred in November 1966 was caused by an extra
Low elevation risky areas in the Adriatic and in the 190 cm (Robinson et al. 1973). Water levels significantly
Ionian seas are the Venice lagoon (Italy), Neretva Delta higher than the expected astronomical tide level are
(Croatia), the Albanian coasts, the gulf of Manfredonia reported several times a year, especially between October
(southern Adriatic Sea, Italy) and Patraikos gulf (Greece). and January (Bargagli et al., 2002).
a b
1040
in-situ
1035
SKiron
1030
1025
mean SLP (hPa)
1020
1015
1010
1005
1000
995
990
45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Time (days)
Fig. 6 Measured and modeled SLP (a) and satellite SLH (b) in 28 of February 2001
360 Y.N. Krestenitis et al.
0.8
the major SW to NE trajectory of the storms coming from
in-situ
0.6 the central Mediterranean and Africa (Laskaratos et al.,
model
1991). According to (Vries et al., 1995) these north Aegean
0.4
areas (Thessaloniki, Kavala, Alexandroupolis) are expected
SLH (m)
Gauge Station Date (Model Day) insitu SLH(m) SLP (hPa) R (annual) r (6days) low pressure-station distance (km)
a b
0.3
Lefkada
0.25
in-situ
0.2 model
0.15
SLH (m)
0.1
0.05
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
-0.2
330 335 340 345 350 355
Time (days)
Fig. 9 (a) Model and in-situ SLH for Lefkada and (b) satellite sea level altimetry (cm) on the 4th of December, 2002 (day 337)
362 Y.N. Krestenitis et al.
0.4
In Table 5 the highest sea elevations during case 1
Venice Albania Patraikos Gulf
0.3
(second phase) period for several stations are presented
with the respective system-station distance and stations
0.2 SLP in the time of the sea level maximum appearance.
Although the systems lowest pressure is approximately
SLH (m)
Gauge Station Date (Model Day) Insitu SLH (m) SLP (hPa) R (annual) r (6days) Storm distance (km)
SLH (m)
0.2
0.1
0
25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40
-0.1
high sea level elevations near several low land elevation areas, occurred between 3 of February 2003 until 6 of February
such as the coastal area of Venice (Italy), the Dalmatian Coast 2003 and its low pressure trajectory passed above the
(Croatia), the Albanian coasts (Albania) and the gulf of Patra Adriatic and Aegean Seas (Fig. 5). The direction of the
(Greece, Ionion Sea). In Fig. 9a, the modelled and the storm is first W-E, like the majority of the events observed
observed SLH are presented for Lefkada (Ioanian Sea) in this study period and above the Balkans it turns to the
showing both a high rise during the storms appearance, south and it enters the Aegean Sea where it almost
which decreases gradually from day 340 and thereafter. The disappears above the central area. The gauge station of
simulation SLH output can be used to investigate the sea Chios has lots of data missing during year 2003 and
level alteration in areas or stations where observation data Alexandroupolis station also. So, the use of mathematical
are not available or dont exist for the specific event. So, simulations is crucial in cases like this one, where in situ
these observations were confirmed by the mathematical sea level measurements are absent during significant
simulation experiments for several Adriatic and Ionian areas meteorological events. The modeling output (day 35)
where the simulated sea level elevation for the same date confirms a significant sea level rise during this storm surge
(day 337) showed a significantly high value (Fig 10). in the Aegean Sea (Fig. 11). This SLR exceeds the level of
The south and central Adriatic (Lefkada and Dubrovnik) 0.5 m in the northern areas while lower levels are observed
show high 6-day SLP-SLH correlation even if they show in southern areas. This north to south decrease agrees with
the lowest SLH rise during the case 2 storm. On the the north to south direction of the storm, due to the
contrary, NE Adriatic (Rovinj, Zadar and Split), shows high pressure-driven surge that occurs just below the low
sea elevations and lower correlation coefficients indicating pressure system. For the entire Aegean the highest SLR
the low SLP influence to the sea level elevation alteration due to meteorological conditions of the entire year (2003)
(Table 6). Propagating SE winds are propably the main occurred. This spatial distribution of sea level alteration
factor of the N. Adriatic SLH rise. during case 3 is observed in almost all the study period,
where the highest values are observed just below the low
Aegean Sea pressure systems. The wind-driven water pilling up towards to
the coasts is limited in comparison to the Adriatic, due to
A significant storm surge incident affecting the Aegean Aegeans morphological complexity with numerous channels
Sea, with low pressure around 985 hPa (Table 1, case 3) and islands.
SLH (m)
1010
0.1
1000
0
990
980 -0.1
970 -0.2
15 18 21 24 27 30 15 18 21 24 27 30
Time (days) Time (days)
364 Y.N. Krestenitis et al.
Table 7 Chios 2004 max SLH and storm track implication analysis
Chios Incidents in 2004 Date (model day) In-situ SLH (m) SLP(hPa) R=0.62 r (6days) storm distance storm direction
Another storm incident that affected the whole Aegean r correlation is the highest of all the other 2004 storm surge
region appeared in January of 2004 (Case 5), where a low events, and it is also greater than that of the annual correlation
pressure system was generated above Greece and moved for Chios (R=0.62). Investigating several other storm surge
from NW to SE and then to NE as presented on Fig. 5. events for Chios during 2004, it is observed that the west to
Especially, in the evening of 22nd and in the morning of east tracks show the highest 6-day SLP-SLH correlation, on
23 rd the amplitudes of pressure are extremely low the contrary to the north-south tracks. The distance between
(Fig. 12a), mainly above the coasts of Asia Minor where the low pressure system and the gauge station for case 5 was
SLP is about 980 hPA, where one of the lowest pressure about 305 km, which is the closest than any other incident
values of the entire study period appears. The nearest gauge appeared during 2004. Therefore, this case shows higher
stations to the high sea level rise areas are Alexandroupolis, correlation (r=0.91) than the other 2004 incidents and
Antalya and Chios (central Aegean). Unfortunately, the maximum annual SLH value. So, it is obvious that for
nearest of all, Antalya, seems to have missing SLH data Aegean Sea the areas situated below or close to the low
during those days, but all the others have been able to pressure systems are affected directly by the lower pressure,
record this storm surge event. The gauge stations analysis while winds play a less important role in the sea level
for Chios is presented in Table 7, where the most important alteration during a storm surge event.
incidents that influenced Chios sea elevation are indicated.
On the 21st of January of 2004 theres no major SLH rise South Turkey coastal region
incident recorded in the gauge station of Alexandroupolis
but it had a greater impact in the area of Chios, which was West originated storms influence significantly the sea level
recorded by the Chios gauge station and simulated by the alteration of the Levantine Sea and especially its north coast
model as shown on Fig. 12b. Additionally, an important (South Turkey) and the coasts of Cyprus. According to a
point is that Chios is situated close to the case 5 storm 6-year analysis by Cazenave et al. (2002), the sea level is
trajectory. The r=0.91 correlation (Table 7) indicates a rising at a rate of 2530 mm/year in the Levantine Basin,
strong relationship between SLP and SLH when the while in the Ionian Sea it is falling by 1520 mm/year, but
recorded SLP value on that day was the all-year minimum for the whole Mediterranean Sea the mean rate of level rise
one, and in fact, far minor than any other recorded value is 7 1.5 mm/year. The drop of the Adriatic Sea was
(SLP=983 hPa). Additionally, the SLH recorded on that studied also by Tsimplis and Baker (2000), who relate it to
day, is also the yearly maximum (SLH=0.31 m), which is the general drop of the west Mediterranean region. This
actually the most important SLH-rise incident for Chios renders any extreme sea level rise more dangerous to the
during 2004. Additionally the case 5 (incident 1, Table 7) the east Mediterranean coastal areas year by year.
SLH (m)
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0 0
-0.2 -0.2
-0.4 -0.4
-0.6 -0.6
335 345 355 365 1 11 21 31
time (days) time (days)
Coastal inundation in the north-eastern mediterranean coastal zone 365
During case 4, significant sea level heights were from the open sea towards the coastal area (SW winds), pile
observed along the south coast of Turkey. Generally, this up the water to shallow depths and increase the sea level
low pressure system swept across eastern Mediterranean along the Seyhan-Tarsus delta. From the meteorological
and resulted in the SLH-rise incident in the coastal area SE station of skenderun (Turkey) situated near to the delta
of Antalya. A closer analysis reveals that there are actually (ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/gsod) the sea level atmo-
two different storms that intersect right above the Aegean spheric pressure was collected for the period of each case.
(Fig. 5). The first storm, with a 48-hour head-on, is Significant SLP decrease is observed during the period of
sweeping the African coasts starting from Tunisia and each storm surge case (Fig. 15a, b.). The lowest SLP of the
heading East (SW-NE), while the other one comes from the area is higher than the low SLP pressure of the storm
North (N-SE). The two intersect on the afternoon of system centre (Table 4), but the combination of the decrease
December 15 of 2003 (model day: 349) above the Aegean in the SLP over the study delta area with the strong SW
and then a stronger storm front heads to the Black Sea, winds resulted these significant sea level rise, for both
whereas a secondary low pressure system moves towards storm cases.
Southern Turkey and to the inlands of Asia and on
the 350.5 day it is located right above the south coast.
The storm surge of December 15, 2003 and its impact in the Discussion and conclusions
Seyhan-Tarsus Delta areas sea elevation is presented in
Fig. 13a. It is obvious that there is a SLH-rise on 15-12-2003 The SLH model output for different coastal areas can be
(day 349.5) but it reaches its maximum value during day used to estimate the inundation period for low altitude
350.5. Similar results arise during case 5, where this storm areas. This procedure requires the use of either the
over the Aegean and Asia Minor storm affected the sea level measured sea surface elevation (for the coastal areas close
of the south Turkey coast (Fig. 13b). to the gauge station and the period of available data), or the
The difference between the two storms is that in case 5, SLH values computed by the storm surge model (for any
the trajectory started from Aegean and ended above Asia part of the coastal zone). The mean yearly inundation
Minor, without passing near the studied Seyhan Tarsus frequency (%) is listed in Table 8, estimated by the model
delta. In both cases though, the strongest winds in NE for two specific storm surge events: (a) the sea level rise is
Levantine Sea of each year, occurred during these storms greater than 0.30 m (above the mean sea level), and (b) the
appearance (Fig. 14a, b). The winds in both cases blow sea level rise is 0.60 m above the mean. The results indicate
1020 1020
1015 1015
1010 1010
1005 1005
1000 1000
995 995
335 345 355 365 1 11 21 31
Time (days) Time (days)
366 Y.N. Krestenitis et al.
that coastal flooding occurs with a frequency which in not north-ends of the two closed basins and although more
neglible. The highest frequencies in both cases are observed pressure-driven surges occur in the Aegean, north to south
in north Adriatic and in south Turkey, where also the frequency overtopping reduction, seen in the Adriatic, is
highest sea level rises were calculated. not observed there.
The 30 cm overtopping frequency decreases from The sea level fluctuation increases during the study
north to south, in the Adriatic Sea. This shows the higher period, in many areas of the NE Mediterranean region.
risk level of the north closed coast of each region (dead During the last simulation year (2004) the maximum
end), where the wind dominated surge in combination to SLH in the Adriatic Sea and especially along the SE
the channel shape of the sea piles up the water Turkish and Cyprus coasts approaches, and in many
northwards during storms (solid line, Fig. 16) (Bondesan cases exceeds, the 1 m level (Fig. 18). High overtopping
et al. 1995). In the Aegean sea, the trend is different (dash frequencies also occur in the same areas. In the majority of
line, Fig. 16); the values in the central area are higher than the Greek coasts the sea level rise ranges between
in the northern and southern areas due to the sea level
alteration that usually occurs right below the low pressure 2.5
systems. This trend points to a stronger relation between
the storm surge and the atmospheric pressure than with the
30 cm overtopping (%)
in magnitude than in the Adriatic (Table 5). In other Fig. 16 Frequencies of SLH>0.3 cm in various areas of the Adriatic
words, the wind driven storm surges influence more the and Aegean Sea in the years 20002004 (model hindcasting)
Coastal inundation in the north-eastern mediterranean coastal zone 367
0.7
with high risk of inundation, due to their low altitude and
0.65
mild slope, exist in all Mediterranean countries. In situ
Max sealLevel rise (m)
0.6
measurements are absent in many such areas, so the use of
0.55
alternative tools, like mathematical simulations and satellite
0.5
images, is imperative. A useful tool, in terms of generating
0.45
Adriatic Sea reasonably based scenarios of forecoming flooding events
0.4 Aegean Sea
in the coastal areas of the Mediterranean, can arise by
0.35
combining a method of storm tracks identification and
0.3
47 45 43 41 39 37 observation of their dominant characteristics together with
Latitude the identification of coastal areas in risk of inundation.
Fig. 17 Maximum SLH in various areas of the Adriatic and Aegean Warning systems of coastal flooding improve authorities
Sea in the years 20002004 (model hindcasting) preparedness and help coastal human society to take proper
actions in cases of imminent extreme meteorological
00.5 m. An exception is the south east region, at the incidents. In sustainable and integrated development of
Levantine-Aegean passage, where maxima higher than the coastal zone, a storm surge event is a crucial factor,
0.5 m appear. affecting significantly the quality of life. Additionally,
Good yearly correlation between sea level pressure and hindcasting storm surge events and studying previous
sea level height exists mostly in the Aegean Sea and less in inundation cases can offer to stakeholders a better view of
the Adriatic and North Levantine Seas. In the latter areas possible changes and measures that need to be taken in
the winds and especially those of southern direction are the already developed, risky coastal areas. This is more crucial
dominant factor causing the sea level to reach maximum for E.U. countries because the members states should adopt
heights. So, wind driven surges appear more frequent in the the European Directive 2007/60/C about the assessment
NE Mediterranean region, following the general rule for the and management of flood risks, while by 2011, they should
entire Mediterranean Sea, where, in such enclosed regions, undertake a preliminary flood risk assessment of the river
the inverted-barometer effect is quite weak. The combina- basins and the associated coastal zones, in order to identify
tion of the morphological complexity with the storm track areas where potential significant flood risk exists. Further-
directions in the Aegean Sea induces a deviation from this more, by 2013 they have to develop flood hazard maps and
rule. That is, in many cases the sea level pressure factor flood risk maps for such areas and by 2015 flood risk
tends to be dominant. Storm surge events in the Aegean Sea management plans must be drawn up for these zones.
exhibit lower magnitudes and overtopping frequencies than Combining atmospheric forecast with storm surge
in the other studied areas. forecast is a next step in this study in order to produce a
The dominant storm surge direction is from West to East. common prediction method of SLH-rise incidents in the
Due to the complexity of the coastal morphology and the Mediterranean. Thus, the combination of atmospheric
high population of coastal areas in the largest part of the forecasting modelling with a storm surge hydrodynamic
study area, storm surge events can be extremely dangerous model may estimate with good accuracy near-future storm
for the human coastal economy and infrastructure. Areas surge events and their accompanied sea level rise.
Fig. 18 Frequencies of SLH>40 m (model hindcasting) along the East Mediterranean region in 20002004 (a) and maximum heights for the
same area in 2004 (b)
368 Y.N. Krestenitis et al.
Acknowledgments This study was carried out with the financial Moron V, Ullmann A (2005) Relation between sea-level pressure and
contribution of the E.U. project CORI: Prevention and management sea-level height in the Camargue (French Mediterranean coast).
of sea originated risks to the coastal zone, INTERREG IIIB/ Int J Climatol 25:15311540
ARCHIMED. We thank Gerasimos Korres and the POSEIDON team Paskoff R (1993) Ctes en danger. Pratiques De La Gographie
(Hellenic Center for Marine Research) for providing the POSEIDON- Masson, Paris
SKIRON atmospheric and wave fields. The satellite images were Papadopoulos A, Kallos G, Katsafados P, Nickovic S (2002) The
downloaded from the AVISO website: www.aviso.oceanobs.com. We Poseidon weather forecasting system: An overview. Glob Atmos
also thank the anonymous reviewer for his helpful suggestions and Ocean Syst 8:219237
acknowledge ICPSM of the Municipality of Venice for the kind Pirazzoli PA (2000) Surges, atmospheric pressure and wind change
concession of the ISMAR-CNR data for year 2001. and flooding probability on the Atlantic coast of France. Oceanol
Acta 23:643661
Pugh DT (1996) Tides, surges and mean sea-level. John Wiley &
Sons, Chichester UK
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