Energy Policy 65 (2014) 298304

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Energy Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

The impact on electricity demand and emissions due to the

introduction of electric cars in the So Paulo Power System
Marcos Vincius Xavier Dias a,n, Jamil Haddad b,1, Luiz Horta Nogueira b,2, Edson da Costa
Bortoni b,3, Ricardo Alexandre Passos da Cruz c,4, Roberto Akira Yamachita a,5,
Jose Luiz Goncalves b,6
a
Centre of Excellence on Energy Efciency, Av. BPS, 1303, Pinheirinho, Itajub - MG - Brazil - CEP 37500-903
b
Federal University of Itajub, Av. BPS, 1303, Pinheirinho, Itajub - MG - Brazil - CEP 37500-903
c
iX Studies and Projects Ltda., Rua Coronel Joaquim Francisco, 314, sala 02, bairro Varginha, Itajub MG - Brazil - CEP 37501-052

H I G H L I G H T S

Overview of the transportation sector

Forecasting methodology

Additional energy demand results

art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Over the past years, the pursuit of using less polluting energy sources throughout society has been on the
Received 8 July 2013 increase. In general, the transportation sector is responsible for most of the emissions of greenhouse gases.
Received in revised form Therefore, in this article a methodological approach is applied in such a way that it is possible to quantify the
11 September 2013
impact of the penetration of electric vehicles vis--vis others that use different types of fuel (exible fuel, for
Accepted 14 September 2013
Available online 16 October 2013
example). The study is conducted for a road modal in So Paulo, the main state in Brazil in terms of economy,
energy and environment, taking into account only automobiles. A comparative analysis of forecasting scenarios
Keywords: until 2035 for various inputs of electric cars in the whole state eet is presented, aiming to verify the
Electric vehicles susceptibility of the model suggested, upon the introduction of electric vehicles, taking into account also the
Electricity demand
electrical and environmental impacts related to it. The analysis was possible due to the use of a simulation tool,
CO2 emissions
Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), which is an energy environmental model based on
scenarios, allowing an integrated and reliable support to develop studies on integrated energy planning.
& 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Questions related to how this energy is used in several areas

(residential, transports, industry, trades, etc.) of a city, state or
In recent years, there has been a great deal of discussion about country are crucial and must be carefully analysed in order to get a
several aspects related to energy consumption and its associated more solid planning.
emissions, whether from a local or a regional perspective. The aim of this article is to identify the impact caused by the
penetration of electric cars on the demand for electricity and the
amount of emissions that will be avoided, through simulations
n
Corresponding author. Tel.: 55 35 3629 1411. made upon different scenarios (different participation of electric
E-mail addresses: contato@marcosdias.com.br (M.V.X. Dias). cars in the car eet), where cars using gasoline and/or ethanol,
jamil@unifei.edu.br (J. Haddad), lahortanog@gmail.com (L. Horta Nogueira), known as ex fuel, were substituted by electric ones. Thus, the
bortoni@unifei.edu.br (E.d. Costa Bortoni), ricardo.cruz@ixconsult.com.br
(R.A. Passos da Cruz), robertoakira@excen.com.br (R. Akira Yamachita),
study conducted here is focussed on the transport sector, within
joseluiz@unifei.edu.br (J.L. Goncalves). this, the road modal and, by extension, the automobiles. The main
1
Tel.: 55 35 3629 1241. difference of the approach of this work compared to others
2
Tel.: 55 35 3629 1442. available in the international literature is the use of a bottom-up
3
Tel.: 55353629 1353.
4 forecasting model. Despite making use of a control variable
Tel.: 55 35 3622 3114.
5
Tel.: 55 35 3629 1340. outside, the model assumes characteristics of a hybrid model, as
6
Tel.: 55 35 3629 1311. the control variable was dened through a top-down model.

0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.09.052
 M.V.X. Dias et al. / Energy Policy 65 (2014) 298304
2. Transportation sector modelling
2.1. So Paulo transportation sector
The National Confederation of Transport (CNT, 2012) considers
that transportation is one of the main tools of production in the
economy and an agent that promotes wealth and development.
The importance of this sector to the country is greater than the
initial idea of just a link between the producing and consuming
areas. The transportation sector creates jobs, contributes towards
the income distribution and the quality of life. However, according
to Egbue and Long (2012), this sector is responsible for approxi-
mately 14% of the global emissions of greenhouse gases and this
percentage is expected to rise to 50% in 2030.
In terms of energy, according to data from the National Energy
Balance (BEN, 2012), the transportation sector is responsible for 30% of
the total energy consumption in Brazil. If only the transportation
sector is considered, the road modal is responsible for the biggest part
of the energy consumption with 27.5%. The other 2.5% are divided
between air with 1.5%, rail with 0.5% and water also with 0.5%.
The role of energy in the transportation sector in the state's total
energy matrix (Fig. 1) is highlighted, being responsible for 27% of total
energy consumption. Of this 27%, 23% corresponds to the road modal.
2.2. Forecasting methodology
The methodology developed for forecasting is based on the
bottom-up model. In this work, the methodology will be applied
to the state of So Paulo. The base year is 2005 and the forecasting
will be made for 2035.
The indicators were designed for the 2035 projection in order
to obtain the expected main result, which is the amount of energy
to the sector; they are respectively listed below:

Fleet (number of vehicles),

Energy Performance (km l1),

Level of occupancy (passenger/vehicle)

Average mileage travelled (km)
The information that is presented below details the methodo-
logical approach and assumptions for each of them.
2.3. Fleet
Due to the characteristics and peculiarities of the studied eet,
it was split up in order to organise its study. The rst separation
was made according to the vehicle types. The eet was broken
down into light vehicles (cars and commercial), trucks (semi-light,
light, medium, semi-heavy and heavy), buses (buses and mini-
buses) and motorcycles. The focus of this work will be on cars.
As for fuels, the automobiles were separated as follows: gasoline,
ethanol, ex and vehicular natural gas (VNG). Electric cars and
hybrids were considered separately. Although hybrid cars are
present in the methodology, for this study, only the electric cars
were considered.
27%
Transportation
Other sectors
73%
Fig. 1. Energy consumption in the transportation sector in the state of So Paulo in
2007 (BEESP, 2008).
299
To ensure the consistency of the results and avoid their detach-
ment from real facts, the forecasting eet was submitted to a control
variable, in this case, the forecasting that was made exogenously, thus
avoiding inconsistent results. The forecasting eet used as a control
variable was the one contained in Matriz SP (2010). It was used to
calibrate the parameters of evolution each year from the technical
model of forecasting. Below, the forecasting methodology for cars is
presented.
The eet was estimated by fuel type, separated into gasoline
(i1), ethanol (i 2), ex (i 3), VNG (i 4), electric (i 5) and
hybrid (i 6) powered vehicles. The numbers in brackets are the
possible values for i that were used in the following cases.
Thus, it is possible to generalise the forecasting function in the
following ways:
Case 1. for i1,2,3 F i t f 1 UV i t 1 F i t 1  St, expressed
in number of vehicles, where:
F i t is the car type i eet projected to the year t, f t is the function
that represents the variation of the sales of the new vehicles in
year t, V i t  1 is the number of new vehicles type i licensed in
year t1 and St represents the total of vehicles type i scrapped in
year t.
The scrap was estimated according to the Gompertz curve
(Gompertz, 1832) shown in Fig. 2.
St e  ea bt ;
where: t is the vehicle's age, St is the fraction of scrapped
vehicles at age t and a and b are curve adjustment parameters.
The scrapping was done by discounting, year by year, the
number of vehicles that leave the streets in accordance to the
percentages obtained by curve described previously.
The parameters a and b were obtained with the calibration
of the model based on the data from Denatran and Anfavea.
The values obtained are shown in Table 1.
In order to verify the forecasting consistency, the motorisation
rate was calculated for each scenario, to evaluate the coherence of
the results.
Case 2. : for i4

In relation to vehicles powered by VNG, this study is premised
on the following facts: The portion of vehicles delivered by the
factory with this technology is inconsiderable compared to the
whole set;

As the vehicles powered by VNG acquire this status from
conversion from another type of fuel, it was considered that
all VNG vehicles were converted from the ones originally
powered by another fuel; hence, the VNG vehicles eet was
deducted from the ex-fuel vehicles eet.
100
90
80
Cumulative Probability
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Years
Fig. 2. Model of Scrapping Curve (Gompertz (1824)).
300 M.V.X. Dias et al. / Energy Policy 65 (2014) 298304

Table 1 Table 2
Parameters a and b from the Gompertz curve gotten after the calibration. Average distance traveled by age of vehicles. (Cetesb, 2009).

Category Parameters Age (Years) Average Distance

Traveled (km/years)
a b
1 28000
Automobile 1,870 0,125 2 28000
Light Commercial 2,300 0,200 3 28000
Trucks 2,000 0,100 4 28000
Bus 3,000 0,100 5 24000
Minibus 3,000 0,100 6 23000
7 20000
8 19000
9 18000
10 17000
11 16000
Thus, the VNG vehicles eet forecast in a given year is 12 15000
determined by the forecast of the index that represents VNG 13 14000
14 13000
vehicles eet as a fraction of the total car eet of this year. 15 12000
This way, there is
F i t g i t U F t ;
where g i t is the function that represents the percentage of is the time equivalent to the total of trips and conditions of the ET,
vehicles type i in the total of vehicles eet in year t and and F t by vehicle, in the year, expressed in days and DUT is the time
is the total of vehicles eet in year t. equivalent to the circulation in UT expressed in days.

Case 3. : for i 5, 6
Case 1. Conventional automobile: i1,2,3,4
Electric cars and hybrids were considered as one fraction of the
total eet. There is:
Thus, one can say that
a DTU i t ji t UDTU i t  1;
F i t g i t U F t ;
where g i t is the function that represents the percentage of b DTC i t i t Uji t U DTC i t  1; and
vehicles type i in the total of vehicles eet in year t.
As the eet of electric cars is new and having in mind the year c DTEi t ji t UDTEi t  1
of 2035, the scrapping of these vehicles was not considered.
where: DTU i t is the energy performance for UT related to fuel i in
the year t, DTC i t is the energy performance for CT related to fuel i,
2.4. Energy Performance
in the year t, DTEi t is the energy performance for ET related to fuel
i, in the year t, ji t is a function that represents the technological
The forecast of the energy performance of the car is basically a
development related to fuel i, in the year t and i t is an
function of the technological variables and the inuence of
adjustment variable to add the effect of trafc jam in vehicles
trafc jam.
using fuel i in the year t,
Three different situations were considered: urban trafc (UT),
congested urban trafc (CT) and express trafc (intercities) (ET).
The forecast was made for each type of fuel, gasoline (1), Case 2. New technologies: i5
ethanol (2), ex (3), VNG (4) and new technologies (5).7 The new
To this case, there is:
technology group was dealt with separately.
The energy performance related to urban transport for each DNT t t U DNT t  1
year was calculated by analysing the performance through the
eet by the age of the vehicles. where: DNT t is the energy performance of the non-conventional
The nal value for the energy performance of the vehicles was vehicles in the year t and t is the variable that represents the
obtained by analysing UT, CT and ET according to the estimated technological development of non-conventional vehicles in year t:
number of days in the year in which the vehicle is used in each of the
situations.
Thus, the following expression to calculate the overall energy
performance of the car eet is presented: 2.5. Level of occupancy and average mileage travelled
 
DC U MM U CT100
RE U UT
DV U ET DUT UUT The estimation of the level of occupancy for cars was based on
EP G
365 scenarios of public actions to discourage the use of private
where: DC corresponds to the time equivalent to the total transportation from encouraging the use of public transportation.
congestion in the year, expressed in days, MM is the percentage In this study, this indicator was considered unchanged in all years
that represents the Mega Metropolis8 in the state of So Paulo covered by the study and it was set as 1.5 persons per vehicle.
eet, RE is the percentage that represents the rest of the state, DV Cetesb (2009) presents a study that raises the average annual
mileage of vehicles by age. For example, Table 2 shows the
7
estimated data for vehicles up to 15 years old.
New technologies include electric and hybrid cars, but may also incorporate
other types of similar technology. They will be called non-conventional.
The estimate of the average distance travelled by vehicles was
8
In this study, the cities of So Paulo that compose the Mega Metropolis are based on historical data provided by Cetesb (2009) and weighted
Santos, So Jos dos Campos, Campinas and Sorocaba. by the eet of vehicles by age.
 M.V.X. Dias et al. / Energy Policy 65 (2014) 298304 301

3. Proposed Methodology Development 20.0

18.0
16.0
3.1. Scenarios and forecasting

millions of vehicles
14.0
Flex
12.0 Gasoline
To the study proposed in this work, three analysis scenarios
10.0 Electric
and one theoretical sscenario were dened, and they are outlined 8.0 GNV
below: 6.0 Ethanol
4.0

Base Scenario: Car eet without electric cars; 2.0

Scenario 1: Car eet with 10% of electric cars; 0.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Scenario 2: Car eet with 30% of electric cars; and

Compulsory scenario: Car eet with 100% electric cars. This is a Fig. 5. Forecasting of the eet of automobiles with 30% of electric cars by type of
fuel to 2035.
purely theoretical setting aiming to establish a maximum value
for the purpose of comparison.
20.0
18.0
The scenarios were chosen in order to be possible to establish a
16.0
relationship between them. Thus, while the rst represents a 10%

millions of vehicles
14.0
increase related to the base scenario, the second is three times Flex
12.0
greater. The compulsory scenario shows the maximum value. Gasoline
10.0
Electric
Based on EPE (2013), the percentage of the eet of ex cars that 8.0 GNV
use ethanol and gasoline was dened and used in all scenarios. 6.0 Ethanol
The eet of ex automobiles was dened with 30% of cars 4.0
powered by ethanol and 70% of the eet powered by gasoline. 2.0
Application of the methodology led to projected eet values of 0.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
cars and particularly the projected eet of electric cars for each
scenario. For the forecasting, the introduction of electric cars in the Fig. 6. Forecasting of the eet of automobiles with 100% of electric cars by type of
fuel to 2035.
eet was considered from the year 2015 up to the level of each
scenario in the year 2035. Figs. 36 show the results of the forecast
for each scenario.
140.0

120.0
3.2. Results 100.0
10 MWh

80.0 Ethanol
With the forecasting obtained by the application of the meth- Gasoline
60.0
6

odology and its assumptions, the results in terms of energy Electricity

40.0 Natural Gas
consumption and emissions were achieved through the use of
LEAP, a widely used software tool for energy policy analysis and 20.0

0.0
20.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
18.0
Fig. 7. Forecasting of the energy demand for cars by fuel type in the Base Scenario.
16.0
millions of vehicles

14.0
12.0 Flex
10.0 Gasoline 140.0

8.0 GNV
120.0
Ethanol
6.0
100.0
4.0
Ethanol
106 MWh

80.0
2.0 Gasoline
0.0 60.0 Electricity
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Natural Gas
40.0
Fig. 3. Forecasting of the eet of automobiles without electric cars by type of fuel
to 2035. 20.0

0.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

20.0 Fig. 8. Forecasting of the energy demand for cars by fuel type in the Scenario 1.
18.0
16.0
millions of vehicles

14.0 climate change mitigation assessment developed at Stockholm

Flex
12.0 Environment Institute (SEI).
Gasoline
10.0
Electric Structurally, road transportation is subdivided into cargo and
8.0 GNV passengers. The transportation of passengers, in turn, is divided
6.0 Ethanol into individual and collective. Cars are a subdivision of individual
4.0
2.0
transport, which also includes motorcycles and light commercial
0.0 vehicles. Fig. 7 shows the forecasting of energy demand for cars in
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 the Base Scenario by fuel type for 2035.
Fig. 4. Forecasting of the eet of automobiles with 10% of electric cars by type of Fig. 8 shows the forecasting of the energy demand for cars in
fuel to 2035. the Scenario 1 by fuel type for 2035.
302 M.V.X. Dias et al. / Energy Policy 65 (2014) 298304

120.0 600.0

100.0 500.0

80.0 400.0
Ethanol
106 MWh

Base Scenario

106 MWh
60.0 Gasoline
300.0 Scenario 1
Electricity
Scenario 2
40.0 Natural Gas
200.0 Compulsory Scenario

20.0
100.0
0.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 0.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Fig. 9. Forecasting of the energy demand for cars by fuel type in the Scenario 2.
Fig. 12. Forecasting of the energy demand for the transportation sector.

120.0
Regarding the transportation sector as a whole, this forecasting
100.0
includes the sum of demands of all modes in the case, road, air,
water and rail.
80.0
Ethanol
The energy demand decreases as the percentage of electric cars
103 MWh

60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Figure 10. Forecasting of the energy demand for cars by fuel type in the
Compulsory Scenario.
Fig. 11. Forecasting of the emissions associated with the cars.
Fig. 9 shows the forecasting of the energy demand for cars in
the Scenario 2 by fuel type for 2035.
As it was previously explained, Compulsory scenario is a purely
theoretical setting, which aims to estimate the maximum emis-
sions reduction that could be achieved by changing the composi-
tion of the eet.
In this scenario, there would be zero emissions of the car eet
in 2035, as it would be composed only by electric cars having
electricity as the only fuel responsible for the total demand of
energy.
Fig. 10 shows the forecasting of the energy demand for cars in
the Compulsory scenario by fuel type for 2035.
In terms of emissions, Fig. 11 shows the forecasting associated
with the car eet.
4. Analysis of the results
In view of the results obtained for each scenario, a comparison
between them from the perspective of energy and emissions was
made. Fig. 12 shows the results of the forecasting in terms of
energy demand for the transportation sector in each scenario.
Gasoline increases, although the eet remains the same. This condition
Electricity repeats itself in all the comparatives of demand and is explained
Natural Gas by the fact that, from the energy perspective, the electric car is far
superior in terms of efciency to gasoline- and ethanol-powered
cars. It is not difcult to prove this, since, 1 l of gasoline is
equivalent in terms of energy to 8.9 kWh and 1 l of ethanol is
equivalent to 6.5 kWh. To illustrate, suppose that an electric car
2035
goes through 5 km kWh1. This is equivalent in energy terms to
44.5 km l1 of gasoline and to 32.5 km l1 of ethanol. In other
words, with the same amount of power the electric car travels a
much longer distance than cars powered by gasoline and ethanol
or, if preferred, for equal distances the electric car consumes less
energy than other vehicles. Note that this statement is relevant
from the point of view of a local approach.
From the global point of view, other considerations must be
made; the gures Figs. 13 and 14 show the ow and energy
impacts that are involved in energy conversion processes relevant
to electric cars, taking into account hydraulic and thermal sources
from a global view. The numbers represent energy units.
Another aspect that could be considered is the energy life-cycle
analysis. According to Hu et al. (2004), life-cycle assessment (LCA)
is a method to dene and reduce the environmental burdens from
a product, process or activity by identifying and quantifying
energy and material usage and waste discharges, assessing the
impact of the waste materials on the environment and evaluating
opportunities for environmental improvements over the whole life
cycle. Although this analysis is not done in this work, it is
necessary to recognise its importance when addressing the topic
of a global perspective.
Considering the basic assumptions, Fig. 15 shows the energy
demand forecasted for the cars.
As previously highlighted, the energy demand decreases as the
percentage of electric cars in the eet increases. In the case of
automobiles, this reduction is more pronounced because it is the
sector most directly affected by the electric cars. With respect to
electricity demand on the car eet, the forecasting for each
scenario can be seen in Table 3.
The previous table shows one of the goals of this work, that is,
measuring the impact on the electricity demand from the intro-
duction of electric cars in the car eet in the state of So Paulo, by
evaluating the amount of additional electricity. Table 4 shows the
reduction in car emissions compared to the Base Scenario.
Table 5 shows the forecasting of electricity consumption and
Table 6 the forecasting of the total emissions of the state extracted
from Matriz SP (2010).
After comparing the electricity demand of each scenario
projected with the total demand of the state of So Paulo, Table 7
 M.V.X. Dias et al. / Energy Policy 65 (2014) 298304 303

Fig. 13. Sankey diagram - Electric vehicle fueled with energy from hydropower.

Fig. 14. Sankey diagram - Electric vehicle fueled with energy from power plants powered by natural gas.

140.0
Table 6
120.0 Forecasting of the total emissions of CO2 equivalent from the state of So Paulo.
(10 ton CO2 eq.)
100.0
Base Scenario 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
106 MWh

80.0
Scenario 1
60.0 Scenario 2 Emissions 56,777 66,337 76,704 89,420 101,118 113,987 128,183
Compulsory Scenario
40.0

20.0
Table 7
0.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Relation of the electricity demand of each scenario with the total demand for
electricity in the state.
Fig. 15. Forecasting of the energy demand for the road modal
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

Table 3 Scenario 1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9

Forecasting of the electricity demand of the automobiles. (103 MWh). Scenario 2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.8 4.3 5.8
Compulsory 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.4 9.2 14.4 19.3
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 scenario

Scenario 1 0 0 127 801 1,694 2,793 4,008

Scenario 2 0 0 382 2,403 5,081 8,378 12,025
Compulsory Scenario 0 0 766 7,245 16,514 27,874 40,085
Table 8
Relation of the emissions reduction of each scenario with the total emissions of the
state in percentage terms.

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Table 4
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Reduction of emissions associated with cars compared to the Base Scenario.
(10 ton CO2 eq.).
Scenario 1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3
Scenario 2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 3.0 3.9
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Compulsory 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.2 10.7 13.5
Scenario
Scenario 1 0 0 51 331 700 1,152 1,653
Scenario 2 0 0 155 991 2,100 3,455 4,959
Compulsory Scenario 0 0 305 3,199 7,262 12,160 17,362
shows how the increase in the electricity demand for each scenario
forecasting represents the amount of total demand projected for the
state, in percentage terms.
Table 5 Table 8 shows, in percentage terms, the relation of emissions
Forecasting of electricity consumption in the state of So Paulo. (10 MWh). reduction of the car eet due to the introduction of the electric
cars to the total emissions of the state.
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Taking Table 7 into consideration, it is inevitable to note at once
Electricity 118,800 135,362 149,387 165,530 179,777 193,198 207,328
that, in a completely theoretical scenario where in 2035 all
vehicles of the car eet in the state of So Paulo are electric, it
304 M.V.X. Dias et al. / Energy Policy 65 (2014) 298304
would be necessary to increase the electricity supply in the state
by 19.3% to cover the increased demand required in this condition.
Considering the results of each scenario, note a linear relation
between the increase of the electric car eet and the increase of
the state demand.
In other words, in an approximate way, each increment of 10%
of electric cars in the eet corresponds to an increase of 2% in the
electricity demand of the state.
From the emissions perspective, note that each increment of
10% of electric cars in the car eet represents a reduction of about
1.3% of total emissions in the state. When only the automobiles are
taken into consideration, this percentage reaches 9,5%, that is,
from each 10% of electric cars introduced in the car eet of the
state, there is a reduction of 9.5% in the emissions associated to the
vehicles.
5. Conclusions
Undoubtedly, in order to reduce the emissions of greenhouse
gases it is necessary to use clean sources, whatever the sector, and
in this sense, there are many studies linking the supply of
additional energy generated by the insertion of electric cars with
renewable energy sources such as water sources, photovoltaic and
wind power, characterised by low emission rates. Specically, for
the transportation sector and for the automobiles, the consump-
tion of gasoline is more harmful compared with the use of electric
cars. This fact becomes much worse when considering the diesel
used in trucks, for example; but, it is not the focus of this work. It
is worth noting that the adoption of electric vehicles in Brazil is
increasing every day; however, the technology or the costs
associated with their acquisition is still high, which greatly
reduces the adoption of these cars in the national eet.
According to the proposed model, some conditions were
considered important to increase the adhesion of the forecasting.
They are: the scrapping, estimated by the Gompertz curve for the
case of eet forecasting; and the trafc jam, used for the forecast-
ing of the energy performance of cars. A contribution on the
energy performance on each type of vehicle was the weighting by
age (besides the weighting per eet), that is, the older the vehicle
the worse its performance associated with burning of fuel.
As a result of the adopted method used for different scenarios,
it was possible to evaluate the impact of the introduction of cars
powered by electricity, in terms of energy (electricity) and envir-
onment (emissions), for different percentages of participation in
the total eet of the state of So Paulo.
In energy terms, it was noted that if the government of So
Paulo makes it compulsory that 100% of the eet is composed by
electric cars in 2035, there will be an increase of 40 million MWh
of electricity compared to the Base Scenario. In environmental
terms, considering the same condition, the emissions of CO2
equivalent would reduce by 17.3 million tons.
In percentage terms, the study showed that approximately
every increase of 10% electric cars in the eet corresponds to: an
increase of 2% of the electricity demand in the state and a
reduction of about 1.3% of the total emissions in the state. These
values are representative, since So Paulo has targets for reducing
CO2 established by the State Policy on Climate Change PEMC.
Thus, in order to reach these goals it is necessary that stricter
policies for the transport sector are adopted by So Paulo, as this
sector concentrates the largest emissions of the state. One of them
would be the use of vehicles powered by electricity, as presented in
this work, which proved effective in the environmental perspective.
Other policies related to other consumer sectors would contribute to
achieving the goals of reducing the greenhouse gases.
References
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de So Paulo. Secretaria de Saneamento e Energia. So Paulo.
BEN. 2012. National Energy Balance. (In portuguese) Empresa de Pesquisa Energ-
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