Simulacin de Montecarlo con Excel

PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA FASES PARA DESARROLLAR EL

El gerente de PRODUCTOS PRECEDEROS SL vende todos 1) DEFINIR LAS VARIABLES NO CONTROBLES (

los das un producto perecedero en el mercado, de tal manera
que las existencias que no se venden en el da constituyen
una perdida neta igual al coste de su adquisicin ms
1/unidad en concepto de transporte.
A primera hora de la maana adquiere las unidades de
producto que prev que va a vender. A continuacin se va a su
puesto en el mercado, donde permanece hasta las 14 horas.
Despus de esa hora las unidades sobrantes van al
contenedor de basura.
Por esta razn, el gerente desea ser muy cuidadoso con las
provisiones de ese producto y con tal motivo ha decidido
realizar un modelo de simulacin que le informe de cuantas
unidades de ese producto debe adquirir cada da.
UNIDADES VENDIDAS
PRECIO DE VENTA
PRECIO DE COMPRA
2) DEFINIR VARIABLE NO CONTROLADAS DETE
COSTE DE TRANSPORTE 1 POR UNID
3) DEFINIR VARIABLES CONTROLADAS
CANTIDAD A COMPRAR ( 18, 19, 20, 21, 2
4) CALCULO DE LA FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION
DE LAS VARIABLE NO CONTROLABLES
5) INTEGRACION DE LOS ELEMENTOS EN EL M
COMBINAR LOS N ALEATORIOS OBTEN
CON LA FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION VA
Y SIMULAR LOS BENEFICIOS EN FUNCIO
TODAS LAS VARIABLES DEL MODELO
6) FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION DE LOS BENEFI
COMO HERRAMIENTA DE DECISIN
7) COMPARACION DE LOS BENEFICIOS ESPER
OPTENCION DE MEDIAS E INTERVALOS
PARA CADA CANTIDAD COMPRADA
COMO HERRAMIENTA DE DECISIN

Si vende todo (COMPRAS <= DEMANDA) sus ingresos

sern: (VENTAS x PRECIO DE VENTA) - (COMPRAS x
PRECIO DE COMPRA) - (COMPRAS x 1 de transporte)

Si no vende todo, (COMPRAS > DEMANDA) sus ingresos

sern: (DEMANDA x PRECIO DE VENTA) - (COMPRAS x www.economia-excel.com
PRECIO DE COMPRA) - (COMPRAS x 1 de tansporte)

Hay un coste de exceso si la DEMANDA < COMPRAS. La

cantidad no vendida por el precio de compra ms los gastos
de transporte.

Los datos histricos que puede facilitar son los siguientes:

Unidades vendidas N de das
20 10
21 20
22 30
23 30
24 20
25 10
Los precios de venta han variado cada da y los datos que
nos puede proporcionar son :
Precio de venta N de das
10 20
12 30
14 40
16 30
18 10

Asimismo nos puede facilitar el precio de compra unitario

de la mercanca

Precio de compra N de das

5 15
7 25
9 35
11 25
17 10
 rlo con Excel

PARA DESARROLLAR EL MODELO:

ABLES NO CONTROBLES (ALEATORIAS)

NO CONTROLADAS DETERMINISTAS
ANSPORTE 1 POR UNIDAD
S CONTROLADAS
OMPRAR ( 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 . ) a optimizar.
UNCION DE DISTRIBUCION
BLE NO CONTROLABLES (ALEATORIAS)
LOS ELEMENTOS EN EL MODELO
S N ALEATORIOS OBTENIDOS CON EXCEL
ON DE DISTRIBUCION VAR. ALEATORIAS
S BENEFICIOS EN FUNCION DE LAS
ARIABLES DEL MODELO
RIBUCION DE LOS BENEFICIOS SIMULADOS
MIENTA DE DECISIN
LOS BENEFICIOS ESPERADOS
E MEDIAS E INTERVALOS (nivel confianza 95 %)
ANTIDAD COMPRADA
MIENTA DE DECISIN

www.economia-excel.com
Empresa: PRODUCTOS PERECEDEROS SL

Objetivo: decidir el n de unidades de mximo beneficio que debe adquirir la empresa

PRODUCTOS PERECEDEROS SL

Mtodo: simulacin de Montecarlo con Excel = mtodo cuantitativo que a partir de una
muestra estadstica y una serie de nmeros aleatorios que analiza el comportamiento de
sistemas reales no dinmicos.

Modelo: Max Beneficio / Beneficio=si adquisicin <= demanda , ((adquisicin x precio de

venta) - (adquisicin x precio de compra) - (adquisicin x transporte)), (demanda x precio
de venta) - (demanda x precio de compra) - (demanda x transporte) - coste de exceso)
(utilizando notacin Excel)

1 - Variables no controlables aleatorias:

VENTAS PRECIO DE VENTA PRECIO DE COMPRA
uds vendidas n de das precios n de das precios n de das
20 10 10 20 5 15
21 20 12 30 7 25
22 30 14 40 9 35
23 30 16 30 11 25
24 20 18 10 17 10
25 10

2 - Variables no controlables deterministas:

Coste exceso = Precio adquisicin + 1

3 - Variables controlables:
Cantidad de productos a adquirir: 18, 19, 20. 30

4 - Distribucin de probabilidad de las variables no controlables:

Demanda Precio venta Precio compra
Pr. Acumulada Demanda n de das Pr. Suceso Pr. Acumulada P. Venta n de das Pr. Suceso Pr. Acumulada P. Compra n de das Pr. Suceso
0.00 19 0.00 9 0.00 4
0.08 20 10 0.08 0.15 10 20 0.15 0.14 5 15 0.14
0.25 21 20 0.17 0.38 12 30 0.23 0.36 7 25 0.23
0.50 22 30 0.25 0.69 14 40 0.31 0.68 9 35 0.32
0.75 23 30 0.25 0.92 16 30 0.23 0.91 11 25 0.23
0.92 24 20 0.17 1.00 18 10 0.08 1.00 17 10 0.09
1.00 25 10 0.08 130 1.00 110 1.00
120 1.00

A continuacin se representa grficamente el rea de probabilidad de cada suceso:

Demanda Precio de Venta Precio de Compra

0.14

0.23

0.32

0.23

0.09
0.08

0.17

0.25

0.25

0.17

0.08

0.15

0.23

0.31

0.23

0.08

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
prob. Demanda 25 uds prob. Demanda 24 uds
prob. prec io compra 17 prob. preci o compra 11 prob. prec io compra 9
prob. Demanda 23 uds prob. Demanda 22 uds prob. precio vta. 18 prob. precio vta.16 prob. precio vta. 14
prob. prec io compra 7 prob. preci o compra 5
prob. Demanda 21 uds prob. Demanda 20 uds prob. precio vta. 12 prob. precio vta. 10

5 - Integracin de los elementos en el modelo

Se trata de generar una serie de nmeros pseudo-aleatorios mediante Excel, dentro de una distribucin uniforme
entre 0 y 1, y buscar el intervalo de nmeros aleatorios asociados a cada suceso a partir de la columna de
probabilidad acumulada. Se realizan 1000 ensayos

Con los datos simulados se calcula el beneficio para las distintas cantidades a adquirir (variables controlables) y
conforme a la frmula del modelo.
 SIMULACIN DE BENEFICIOS PARA LAS SIGUIENTES CANTIDADES A COMPRAR
ASIGNACIN DE SUCESOS A LOS NUM. ALEATORIOS EXCEL
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
n sucesos demanda precio venta precio compra coste compra coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios
1 20 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 7 53 14 46 21 39 28 32 35 25 42 18
2 20 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 9 111 18 102 27 93 36 84 45 75 54 66
3 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
4 21 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 11 115 22 104 33 93 44 82 55 71
5 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
6 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
7 23 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 6 201 12 195 18 189
8 20 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 13 -53 26 -66 39 -79 52 -92 65 -105 78 -118
9 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
10 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
11 25 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11
12 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
13 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
14 23 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 6 201 12 195 18 189
15 21 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 7 203 14 196 21 189 28 182 35 175
16 25 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 7 93
17 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
18 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
19 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
20 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
21 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
22 25 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 0 175 6 169
23 25 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 0 125 6 119
24 25 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 7 143
25 25 17 12 13 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 13 87
26 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
27 23 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 7 223 14 216 21 209
28 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
29 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
30 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
31 25 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 7 143
32 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
33 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
34 22 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 13 31 26 18 39 5 52 -8
35 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
36 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
37 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
38 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
39 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
40 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
41 20 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 13 -53 26 -66 39 -79 52 -92 65 -105 78 -118
42 24 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 7 89 14 82
43 24 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 7 89 14 82
44 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
45 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
46 23 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 6 86 12 80 18 74
47 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
48 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
49 24 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 0 253 0 264 6 258 12 252
50 24 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 6 114 12 108
51 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
52 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
53 25 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13
54 25 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 0 200 7 193
55 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
56 20 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 11 29 22 18 33 7 44 -4 55 -15 66 -26
57 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
58 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
59 21 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 11 -32 22 -43 33 -54 44 -65 55 -76
60 21 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 7 203 14 196 21 189 28 182 35 175
61 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
62 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
63 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
64 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
65 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
66 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
67 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
68 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
69 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
70 23 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 7 223 14 216 21 209
71 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
72 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
73 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
74 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
75 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
76 22 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 7 213 14 206 21 199 28 192
77 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
78 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
79 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
80 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
 81 23 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 6 86 12 80 18 74
82 25 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 0 25 9 16
83 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
84 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
85 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
86 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
87 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
88 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
89 21 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 6 99 12 93 18 87 24 81 30 75
90 25 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 0 125 6 119
91 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
92 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
93 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
94 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
95 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
96 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
97 21 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 13 29 26 16 39 3 52 -10 65 -23
98 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
99 21 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 13 -55 26 -68 39 -81 52 -94 65 -107
100 25 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 0 200 7 193
101 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
102 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
103 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
104 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
105 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
106 24 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 6 210 12 204
107 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
108 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
109 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
110 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
111 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
112 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
113 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
114 23 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 13 -82 26 -95 39 -108
115 23 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 11 127 22 116 33 105
116 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
117 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
118 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
119 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
120 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
121 22 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 9 167 18 158 27 149 36 140
122 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
123 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
124 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
125 20 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 13 -53 26 -66 39 -79 52 -92 65 -105 78 -118
126 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
127 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
128 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
129 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
130 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
131 24 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26
132 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
133 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
134 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
135 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
136 25 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 7 93
137 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
138 22 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 11 121 22 110 33 99 44 88
139 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
140 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
141 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
142 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
143 20 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 9 151 18 142 27 133 36 124 45 115 54 106
144 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
145 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
146 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
147 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
148 24 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 6 162 12 156
149 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
150 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
151 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
152 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
153 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
154 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
155 23 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 13 33 26 20 39 7
156 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
157 20 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 13 27 26 14 39 1 52 -12 65 -25 78 -38
158 25 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 0 25 9 16
159 25 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13
160 20 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52 65 -65 78 -78
161 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
162 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
163 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
164 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
165 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
166 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
167 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
168 21 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 13 -55 26 -68 39 -81 52 -94 65 -107
169 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
170 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
171 20 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 9 31 18 22 27 13 36 4 45 -5 54 -14
172 24 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 6 114 12 108
173 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
174 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
175 23 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 13 33 26 20 39 7
176 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
177 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
178 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
179 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
180 20 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 11 -31 22 -42 33 -53 44 -64 55 -75 66 -86
181 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
182 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
183 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
184 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
185 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
186 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
187 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
188 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
189 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
190 22 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 6 82 12 76 18 70 24 64
191 20 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55 66 -66
192 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
193 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
194 21 17 12 13 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 13 71 26 58 39 45 52 32 65 19
195 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
196 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
197 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
198 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
199 24 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 0 240 7 233 14 226
200 25 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11
201 22 17 12 13 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 13 75 26 62 39 49 52 36
202 23 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 11 127 22 116 33 105
203 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
204 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
205 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
206 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
207 23 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 13 -59 26 -72 39 -85
208 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
209 21 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 6 183 12 177 18 171 24 165 30 159
210 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
211 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
212 20 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 9 111 18 102 27 93 36 84 45 75 54 66
213 23 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 13 -59 26 -72 39 -85
214 25 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 6 94
215 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
216 25 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 0 200 7 193
217 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
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837 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
838 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
839 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
840 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
841 25 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 7 93
842 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
843 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
844 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
845 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
846 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
847 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
848 21 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 13 29 26 16 39 3 52 -10 65 -23
849 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
850 20 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 7 73 14 66 21 59 28 52 35 45 42 38
851 22 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 7 213 14 206 21 199 28 192
852 23 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 6 201 12 195 18 189
853 21 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 11 115 22 104 33 93 44 82 55 71
854 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
855 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
856 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
857 22 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 11 121 22 110 33 99 44 88
858 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
859 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
860 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
861 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
862 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
863 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
864 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
865 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
866 22 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 13 -79 26 -92 39 -105 52 -118
867 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
868 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
869 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
870 20 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 6 94 12 88 18 82 24 76 30 70 36 64
871 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
872 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
873 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
874 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
875 20 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 7 153 14 146 21 139 28 132 35 125 42 118
876 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
877 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
878 25 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 0 240 0 250 7 243
879 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
880 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
881 21 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 6 78 12 72 18 66 24 60 30 54
882 20 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 9 111 18 102 27 93 36 84 45 75 54 66
883 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
884 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
885 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
886 20 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 6 74 12 68 18 62 24 56 30 50 36 44
887 24 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 7 89 14 82
888 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
889 23 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 6 201 12 195 18 189
890 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
891 20 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 7 153 14 146 21 139 28 132 35 125 42 118
892 25 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 0 25 9 16
893 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
894 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
895 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
896 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
897 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
898 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
899 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
900 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
901 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
902 24 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 13 35 26 22
903 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
904 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
905 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
906 24 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26
907 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
908 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
909 24 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 9 183 18 174
910 22 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 13 31 26 18 39 5 52 -8
911 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
912 23 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 13 -59 26 -72 39 -85
913 24 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 6 210 12 204
914 24 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 6 210 12 204
915 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
916 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
917 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
918 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
919 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
920 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
 921 20 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 9 11 18 2 27 -7 36 -16 45 -25 54 -34
922 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
923 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
924 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
925 25 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 0 200 9 191
926 23 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 0 253 6 247 12 241 18 235
927 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
928 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
929 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
930 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
931 20 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 9 11 18 2 27 -7 36 -16 45 -25 54 -34
932 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
933 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
934 25 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 0 175 6 169
935 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
936 21 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52 65 -65
937 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
938 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
939 25 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 13 37
940 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
941 25 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 0 225 6 219
942 23 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 11 127 22 116 33 105
943 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
944 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
945 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
946 22 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 13 -57 26 -70 39 -83 52 -96
947 23 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 7 223 14 216 21 209
948 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
949 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
950 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
951 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
952 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
953 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
954 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
955 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
956 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
957 21 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 6 225 12 219 18 213 24 207 30 201
958 25 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13
959 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
960 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
961 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
962 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
963 20 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 11 29 22 18 33 7 44 -4 55 -15 66 -26
964 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
965 25 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 0 225 6 219
966 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
967 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
968 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
969 24 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 6 162 12 156
970 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
971 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
972 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
973 20 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 11 29 22 18 33 7 44 -4 55 -15 66 -26
974 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
975 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
976 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
977 25 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 7 143
978 23 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 6 201 12 195 18 189
979 24 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 11 133 22 122
980 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
981 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
982 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
983 22 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 7 213 14 206 21 199 28 192
984 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
985 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
986 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
987 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
988 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
989 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
990 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
991 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
992 23 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 13 -82 26 -95 39 -108
993 21 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 9 159 18 150 27 141 36 132 45 123
994 24 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 6 210 12 204
995 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
996 24 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 0 -72 13 -85 26 -98
997 20 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 11 69 22 58 33 47 44 36 55 25 66 14
998 24 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 0 72 7 65 14 58
999 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
1000 21 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 6 183 12 177 18 171 24 165 30 159
 6 - Funcin de distribucin de beneficios simulados:
Para comparar, de las 9 simulaciones realizadas, se eligen 3 ( 20, 22 y 24 unidades), se calcula la distribucin de beneficios y se representa
grficamente la probabilidad acumulada.

20 unid. 22 unid. 24 unid.

n sucesos prob prob acum n sucesos prob prob acum. n sucesos prob prob acum
-114 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-113 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-112 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PROB. ACUMULADA

-110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-109 0 0 DISTRIBUCIN
0 0 DE
0 BENEFICIOS
0 0 0 0
-108 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-107 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-106
0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-104 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.8
-103 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-102 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.7
-101 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.6
-99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 unid.
-98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.5
-97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 unid.
-96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 unid.
0.4
-95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.3
-93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-92 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0.006 0.006
0.2
-91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
-90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
0.1
-89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
-88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
-87 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
-114

-90
-78

-54
-42

-6
-102

-66

-30
-18

6
18
30
42
54
66
78
90
102
114
126
138
150
162
174

198
210
222
234
246
186
-86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
-84 0 0 0
BENEFICIO
0
SIMULADO
0 0 0 0 0.006
-83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
-82 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.004 0.01
-81 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0.008 0.018
-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.018
-79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.018
-78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.018
-77 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.018
-76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.018
-75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.018
-74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.018
-73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.018
-72 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.002 0.02
-71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.02
-70 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.004 0.024
-69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.024
-68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.024
-67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.024
-66 0 0 0 6 0.012 0.012 0 0 0.024
-65 0 0 0 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.024
-64 0 0 0 0 0 0.012 3 0.006 0.03
-63 0 0 0 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.03
-62 0 0 0 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.03
-61 0 0 0 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.03
-60 3 0.006 0.006 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.03
-59 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.012 6 0.012 0.042
-58 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.042
-57 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.042
-56 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.042
-55 0 0 0.006 4 0.008 0.02 0 0 0.042
-54 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.02 2 0.004 0.046
-53 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.046
-52 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.02 1 0.002 0.048
-51 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.048
-50 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.048
-49 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.048
-48 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.02 2 0.004 0.052
-47 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.052
-46 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.052
-45 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.052
-44 0 0 0.006 10 0.02 0.04 4 0.008 0.06
-43 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.06
-42 0 0 0.006 3 0.006 0.046 0 0 0.06
-41 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.06
-40 17 0.034 0.04 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.06
-39 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.06
-38 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.06
-37 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.06
-36 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.06
-35 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.06
-34 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.046 6 0.012 0.072
-33 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.046 5 0.01 0.082
-32 0 0 0.04 2 0.004 0.05 0 0 0.082
-31 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.05 0 0 0.082
-30 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.05 0 0 0.082
-29 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.05 0 0 0.082
-28 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.05 0 0 0.082
-27 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.05 0 0 0.082
-26 0 0 0.04 1 0.002 0.052 5 0.01 0.092
-25 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.092
-24 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.052 3 0.006 0.098
-23 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.098
-22 0 0 0.04 13 0.026 0.078 8 0.016 0.114
-21 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.114
-20 17 0.034 0.074 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.114
-19 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.114
-18 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.114
-17 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.114
-16 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.078 2 0.004 0.118
-15 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.118
-14 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.118
-13 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.078 4 0.008 0.126
-12 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.078 1 0.002 0.128
-11 0 0 0.074 5 0.01 0.088 6 0.012 0.14
-10 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.14
-9 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.14
-8 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.14
-7 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.14
-6 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.088 4 0.008 0.148
-5 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.148
-4 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.088 4 0.008 0.156
-3 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.156
-2 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.156
-1 0 0 0.074 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.156
0 41 0.082 0.156 34 0.068 0.156 11 0.022 0.178
1 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.178
2 0 0 0.156 2 0.004 0.16 0 0 0.178
3 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.16 3 0.006 0.184
4 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.16 13 0.026 0.21
5 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.16 0 0 0.21
6 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.16 0 0 0.21
7 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.16 0 0 0.21
8 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.16 0 0 0.21
 9 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.16 4 0.008 0.218
10 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.16 0 0 0.218
11 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.16 0 0 0.218
12 0 0 0.156 4 0.008 0.168 0 0 0.218
13 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.168 0 0 0.218
14 0 0 0.156 1 0.002 0.17 7 0.014 0.232
15 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.17 6 0.012 0.244
16 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.17 0 0 0.244
17 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.17 0 0 0.244
18 0 0 0.156 4 0.008 0.178 1 0.002 0.246
19 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.246
20 29 0.058 0.214 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.246
21 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.178 0 0 0.246
22 0 0 0.214 25 0.05 0.228 6 0.012 0.258
23 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.228 0 0 0.258
24 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.228 5 0.01 0.268
25 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.228 0 0 0.268
26 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.228 16 0.032 0.3
27 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.228 0 0 0.3
28 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.228 0 0 0.3
29 0 0 0.214 3 0.006 0.234 0 0 0.3
30 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.234 0 0 0.3
31 0 0 0.214 4 0.008 0.242 0 0 0.3
32 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.242 2 0.004 0.304
33 0 0 0.214 6 0.012 0.254 4 0.008 0.312
34 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.254 0 0 0.312
35 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.254 10 0.02 0.332
36 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.254 0 0 0.332
37 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.254 14 0.028 0.36
38 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.254 0 0 0.36
39 0 0 0.214 0 0 0.254 0 0 0.36
40 88 0.176 0.39 0 0 0.254 0 0 0.36
41 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.254 0 0 0.36
42 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.254 2 0.004 0.364
43 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.254 0 0 0.364
44 0 0 0.39 68 0.136 0.39 4 0.008 0.372
45 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.39 1 0.002 0.374
46 0 0 0.39 2 0.004 0.394 0 0 0.374
47 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.394 0 0 0.374
48 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.394 17 0.034 0.408
49 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.394 0 0 0.408
50 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.394 0 0 0.408
51 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.394 7 0.014 0.422
52 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.394 3 0.006 0.428
53 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.394 0 0 0.428
54 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.394 0 0 0.428
55 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.394 0 0 0.428
56 0 0 0.39 2 0.004 0.398 0 0 0.428
57 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.398 1 0.002 0.43
58 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.398 0 0 0.43
59 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.398 0 0 0.43
60 13 0.026 0.416 0 0 0.398 0 0 0.43
61 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.398 0 0 0.43
62 0 0 0.416 4 0.008 0.406 5 0.01 0.44
63 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.406 1 0.002 0.442
64 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.406 0 0 0.442
65 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.406 0 0 0.442
66 0 0 0.416 9 0.018 0.424 9 0.018 0.46
67 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.424 0 0 0.46
68 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.424 0 0 0.46
69 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.424 0 0 0.46
70 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.424 11 0.022 0.482
71 0 0 0.416 1 0.002 0.426 0 0 0.482
72 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.426 3 0.006 0.488
73 0 0 0.416 7 0.014 0.44 0 0 0.488
74 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.44 4 0.008 0.496
75 0 0 0.416 1 0.002 0.442 0 0 0.496
76 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.442 2 0.004 0.5
77 0 0 0.416 1 0.002 0.444 0 0 0.5
78 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.444 0 0 0.5
79 0 0 0.416 0 0 0.444 0 0 0.5
80 104 0.208 0.624 0 0 0.444 0 0 0.5
81 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.444 8 0.016 0.516
82 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.444 0 0 0.516
83 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.444 8 0.016 0.532
84 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.444 5 0.01 0.542
85 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.444 6 0.012 0.554
86 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.444 3 0.006 0.56
87 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.444 3 0.006 0.566
88 0 0 0.624 91 0.182 0.626 0 0 0.566
89 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.626 0 0 0.566
90 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.626 0 0 0.566
91 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.626 0 0 0.566
92 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.626 2 0.004 0.57
93 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.626 1 0.002 0.572
94 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.626 0 0 0.572
95 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.626 0 0 0.572
96 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.626 38 0.076 0.648
 97 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.626 0 0 0.648
98 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.626 4 0.008 0.656
99 0 0 0.624 3 0.006 0.632 3 0.006 0.662
100 16 0.032 0.656 0 0 0.632 0 0 0.662
101 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.632 0 0 0.662
102 0 0 0.656 5 0.01 0.642 0 0 0.662
103 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.642 0 0 0.662
104 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.642 0 0 0.662
105 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.642 5 0.01 0.672
106 0 0 0.656 2 0.004 0.646 0 0 0.672
107 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.646 0 0 0.672
108 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.646 0 0 0.672
109 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.646 3 0.006 0.678
110 0 0 0.656 12 0.024 0.67 2 0.004 0.682
111 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.67 0 0 0.682
112 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.67 0 0 0.682
113 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.67 0 0 0.682
114 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.67 8 0.016 0.698
115 0 0 0.656 1 0.002 0.672 0 0 0.698
116 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.672 3 0.006 0.704
117 0 0 0.656 3 0.006 0.678 0 0 0.704
118 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.678 13 0.026 0.73
119 0 0 0.656 5 0.01 0.688 0 0 0.73
120 81 0.162 0.818 0 0 0.688 5 0.01 0.74
121 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.688 0 0 0.74
122 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.688 0 0 0.74
123 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.688 0 0 0.74
124 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.688 1 0.002 0.742
125 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.688 0 0 0.742
126 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.688 0 0 0.742
127 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.688 3 0.006 0.748
128 0 0 0.818 3 0.006 0.694 0 0 0.748
129 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.694 12 0.024 0.772
130 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.772
131 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.694 11 0.022 0.794
132 0 0 0.818 65 0.13 0.824 2 0.004 0.798
133 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.824 0 0 0.798
134 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.824 0 0 0.798
135 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.824 0 0 0.798
136 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.824 0 0 0.798
137 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.824 0 0 0.798
138 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.824 0 0 0.798
139 0 0 0.818 0 0 0.824 0 0 0.798
140 22 0.044 0.862 0 0 0.824 0 0 0.798
141 0 0 0.862 5 0.01 0.834 1 0.002 0.8
142 0 0 0.862 1 0.002 0.836 7 0.014 0.814
143 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.836 0 0 0.814
144 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.836 21 0.042 0.856
145 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.836 0 0 0.856
146 0 0 0.862 2 0.004 0.84 0 0 0.856
147 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.84 5 0.01 0.866
148 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.84 0 0 0.866
149 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.84 0 0 0.866
150 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.84 0 0 0.866
151 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.84 0 0 0.866
152 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.84 0 0 0.866
153 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.84 0 0 0.866
154 0 0 0.862 14 0.028 0.868 0 0 0.866
155 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.868 2 0.004 0.87
156 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.868 1 0.002 0.872
157 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.868 0 0 0.872
158 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.868 2 0.004 0.876
159 0 0 0.862 1 0.002 0.87 0 0 0.876
160 34 0.068 0.93 0 0 0.87 0 0 0.876
161 0 0 0.93 5 0.01 0.88 0 0 0.876
162 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.88 6 0.012 0.888
163 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.88 0 0 0.888
164 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.88 0 0 0.888
165 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.88 0 0 0.888
166 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.88 0 0 0.888
167 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.88 0 0 0.888
168 0 0 0.93 1 0.002 0.882 5 0.01 0.898
169 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.898
170 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.898
171 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.882 2 0.004 0.902
172 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.902
173 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.902
174 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.902
175 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.882 3 0.006 0.908
176 0 0 0.93 25 0.05 0.932 0 0 0.908
177 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.932 8 0.016 0.924
178 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.932 0 0 0.924
179 0 0 0.93 0 0 0.932 0 0 0.924
180 21 0.042 0.972 0 0 0.932 0 0 0.924
181 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.932 0 0 0.924
182 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.932 0 0 0.924
183 0 0 0.972 2 0.004 0.936 0 0 0.924
184 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 0 0 0.924
185 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 0 0 0.924
186 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 7 0.014 0.938
187 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 0 0 0.938
188 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 0 0 0.938
189 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 3 0.006 0.944
190 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 0 0 0.944
191 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 0 0 0.944
192 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 6 0.012 0.956
193 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 0 0 0.956
194 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 0 0 0.956
195 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 0 0 0.956
196 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 0 0 0.956
197 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.936 0 0 0.956
198 0 0 0.972 18 0.036 0.972 0 0 0.956
199 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.956
200 9 0.018 0.99 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.956
201 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.972 4 0.008 0.964
202 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.964
203 0 0 0.99 3 0.006 0.978 0 0 0.964
204 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.964
205 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.964
206 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 2 0.004 0.968
207 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.968
208 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.968
209 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.968
210 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.968
211 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.968
212 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.968
213 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.968
214 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.968
215 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.968
216 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 7 0.014 0.982
217 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.982
218 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.982
219 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.982
220 5 0.01 1 6 0.012 0.99 0 0 0.982
221 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.982
222 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.982
223 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 2 0.004 0.986
224 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
225 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
226 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
227 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
228 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
229 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
230 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 1 0.002 0.988
231 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.988
232 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.988
233 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.988
234 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.988
235 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.988
236 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.988
237 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.988
238 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.988
239 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.988
240 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 2 0.004 0.992
241 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.992
242 0 0 1 5 0.01 1 0 0 0.992
243 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.992
244 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.992
245 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.992
246 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.992
247 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0.002 0.994
248 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
249 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
250 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
7 - Beneficios esperados:
A partir de los beneficios simulados para cada cantidad comprada, obtenemos la variable aleatoria de beneficios esperados, calculando la media de las
1000 simulaciones, y adems obtenemos el intervalo de confianza a un nivel del 95%.

BENEFICIO, VARIANZA E INTERVALO GENERADO A PARTIR DE EL N DE UNIDADES COMPRADAS

CANTIDADES 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
BENEFICIO MEDIO 69.34 73.19 77.04 79.93 81.05 78.73 73.08 65.25 56.25
DESVIACIN TPICA 54.78 57.82 60.87 64.03 67.20 70.16 73.14 75.26 76.86
INTERVALO CONFIANZA 4.80 5.07 5.34 5.61 5.89 6.15 6.41 6.60 6.74
MXIMO 74.14 78.26 82.38 85.54 86.94 84.88 79.49 71.85 62.99
BENEFIC IO M EDIO EN 1 0 0 0 ENS A Y.

MNIMO 64.53 68.12 71.70 74.32 75.16 72.58 66.66 58.66 49.52

BENEFICIO ESPERADO
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
BENEFICIO MEDIO
50.00 MXIMO
40.00 MNIMO
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
CANTIDADES COMPRADAS SIMULADAS

PULSAR F9 PARA RECLCULO ALEATORIO

Decisin:

Los resultados de la simulacin indican que la decisin que maximiza el

beneficio es realizar un pedido de 22 unidades.
Los resultados de la simulacin indican que la decisin que maximiza el
beneficio es realizar un pedido de 22 unidades.