ONTARIO MARCH 2017

EMBARGOED UNTIL:
5 AM EST, MARCH 15, 2017
PRINT EXCLUSIVE:
POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Methodology
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,531
Ontarians on March 11-12, 2017 through Chimera
IVR. Landline and Cell lines were included.
Responses were weighed using demographic
information to targets based on the 2011 Census.
The margin of error for survey results is 1.95
percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
. majority government in the 2015 federal election.
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
Contact Information
In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Montreal: David Valentin, Executive Vice
President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
HYDRO ANNOUNCEMENT PUSHES MORE VOTERS INTO UNDECIDED COLUMN

March 15, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds more Ontarians are undecided about
who they would vote for if a provincial election were held today following the provinces hydro
announcement - an increase of 8 percentage points. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error
of +/- 1.95%, 19 times out of 20.

The PCs are still in the lead but with the undecided vote up there is more instability now, said David
Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. The Liberals have actually bled a little support
following the announcement (-2) but the biggest loss has come from the NDP which has seen a drop in
support of 6 percent.

47 of Ontarians approve of the provinces hydro plan while only 35% disapprove; net approval of +12
(approval-disapproval). When asked, most Ontarians say the move was made for political reasons (41%)
though 18% said it was made from a sincere desire to reduce electricity costs. 27% said it was a combination
of the two while another 14% were undecided.

Theres some good news for Kathleen Wynne in this poll, when asked which provincial leader has the best
Hydro plan the results point to a three-way race. Right now, it looks like Wynne has succeeded in expanding
the number of Ontarians who might vote for her - but that doesnt mean they will. There may be more
undecided voters today but there is no telling how long this will last. It could mean a week, or a month, or a
year. These numbers may change if and when PC Leader Patrick Brown introduces his own hydro plan.

Things could be much better for the Liberals but things could also be much worse, nished Valentin.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca


Not Terrible, Not Great
Thats the best way to summarize the reaction to
the Ontario Liberals electricity plan from a
government perspective.
More than anything else the numbers we are
seeing post announcement show that the number
of voters who are undecided is up among every
demographic group in the province.
While the Liberals have not picked up new support
(in fact they are down two percentage points,
within the margin of error) they have at least
managed to knock voters away from the
opposition parties - for now.
The announcements most dramatic eect has
Changes from February
Clockwise from top-left: Changes to Undecided Vote, Liberal Vote, PC
Vote & NDP Vote among all voters.
been a sea change in support among those under
50. The 18-34 cohort has switched from the PCs to
the Liberals overwhelmingly and the reverse is true
for those 35-49.
With margins of error higher for subgroups it
remains to be seen if these numbers will hold and
its worth noting that the undecided rate has
increased the most among those 35-49 as well.
The bad news for the Liberals is where there
appears to have been little eect so far: the seat
rich GTA where the undecided rate is unchanged.
The largest jump meanwhile has come from
South-Western Ontario which was unusually not
undecided last month to begin with.
 Among All Voters

Something for Everyone

Among all voters the PCs are still posting a 10
point lead - so theres more good news for them

The undecided
than anyone else.

That being said, there are some bright spots for

the Liberals and NDP. rate is up in every
The NDP is leading in the North with 26% in what
is essentially a three-way race. They are also
region mostly at
posting a solid second place in South Central
Ontario which includes Hamilton and Niagara.
the expense of the
The Liberals continue to lead in Toronto (though PCs and NDP.
- David Valentin
the distribution of support is something that has to
be watched carefully and their support has
dropped.

Aside from that, the undecided rate is up in every

region mostly at the expense of the PCs and NDP.
Decided & Leaning

Following Energy Announcement

 Childcare

Approval for Hydro Plan
Almost 50% of Ontarians support the governments hydro
plan with 47% either strongly or somewhat supportive.
Strong disapproval, 24%, bests strong approval however. Of
the 35% who say they disapprove, 68% disapprove strongly.
The Government of Ontario has announced a plan to
reduce electricity bills by an average of 25% by
re-nancing energy infrastructure. It says the cost of
the plan will be $25 Billion over 30 years. Do you
approve or disapprove of the Government of
Ontarios electricity plan?

The plan boasts a net approval rating of +12 (approval -

disapproval) among all voters. Net approval is highest with
Ontarios seniors (+24) followed by residents of south
western Ontario (+21) and Eastern Ontario (+19).

Net approval is lowest with those 35-49 at 0 (support

equals disapproval) followed by those in the Greater
Toronto Area (+2).

Men are much more likely to register approval for the plan
(+15) than women (+9) but this is partly as a result of the
fact women register an undecided rate 4 percentage points
higher than men.

22% of those 34-49 say they are undecided - the highest

among the age groups, which means there may be positive
-- or negative movement for the hydro plan among these
residents as time progresses.
Political Move
Many Ontarians are cynical and 41% say the Hydro plan -
that they mostly approve of, was introduced for political
reasons.

Its surprising the number is not higher.

18% of Ontarians said the move was made from a sincere

desire to reduce electricity costs while another 27% said it
was a combination of the two.

If this was a proxy for the Liberals available voter universe

it would mean a ceiling of 45% - not terrible given their
current standings and that a full 14% are undecided (if you
split the undecided it brings you to a ceiling of 52%).

Men are much more likely than women to say the move
was made for political reasons (48% and 35%
respectively). Its important to remember that men were
also more likely to say they supported the plan than
women .

On the other side of the spectrum, those 35-49 registered

the same score as men, 48%, on saying the move was
made for political purposes - and they were the least
likely to support the plan.
Whos Best on Hydro?
Despite the fact that Patrick Brown holds a 10 percentage
point lead over the Liberals among all voters, his lead is
eectively erased when voters are asked who has the best
Hydro plan.

Its dicult to draw any other conclusion other than the

fact Brown has not been able to take hold of the issue in
an eective manner - and it may not matter.

But if voters were purely voting on Hydro - a big if, a very

dierent horserace would emerge. That being said, the
Liberals have brought this plan forward precisely to avoid
an election fought on Hydro and there are better issues
for them to campaign on.

Andrea Horwaths plan has appeared to resonate, with her

score on this measure 4 percentage points higher than
her overall support on voting intentions.

Wynne is scoring 3 percentage points higher than her

overall support.
 RIDINGS & REGIONS

GREATER TORONTO AREA (GTA) SOUTH-WEST

Ajax, AuroraOak RidgesRichmond Hill,
Brampton Centre, Brampton East, Brampton North,
Brampton South, Brampton West, Durham,
KingVaughan, MarkhamStouville
MarkhamThornhill, MarkhamUnionville,
Mississauga Centre, Mississauga EastCooksville,
MississaugaErin Mills, MississaugaLakeshore,
MississaugaMalton, MississaugaStreetsville,
Oshawa, PickeringUxbridge, Richmond Hill,
Thornhill, VaughanWoodbridge, Whitby,
BarrieInnisl, BarrieSpringwaterOro-Medonte,
DuerinCaledon, NewmarketAurora, Simcoe
North, YorkSimcoe
EAST
Bay of Quinte, Carleton,
GlengarryPrescottRussell,
HaliburtonKawartha LakesBrock,
HastingsLennox and Addington,
KanataCarleton, Kingston and the Islands,
LanarkFrontenacKingston,
LeedsGrenvilleThousand Islands and Rideau
Lakes, Nepean, NorthumberlandPeterborough
South, Orlans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South,
Ottawa WestNepean, OttawaVanier,
PeterboroughKawartha,
RenfrewNipissingPembroke,
StormontDundasSouth Glengarry
BruceGreyOwen Sound, Cambridge,
Chatham-KentLeamington,
ElginMiddlesexLondon, Essex, Guelph,
Kitchener Centre, Kitchener SouthHespeler,
KitchenerConestoga, LambtonKentMiddlesex,
London North Centre, London West,
LondonFanshawe, Oxford, PerthWellington,
SarniaLambton, Waterloo, WellingtonHalton
Hills
Windsor West, WindsorTecumseh
TORONTO (416)
BeachesEast York, Davenport, Don Valley East,
Don Valley North, Don Valley West,
EglintonLawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke
North, EtobicokeLakeshore, Humber RiverBlack
Creek, ParkdaleHigh Park, Scarborough Centre,
Scarborough North, Scarborough Southwest,
ScarboroughAgincourt,
ScarboroughGuildwood, ScarboroughRouge
Park, SpadinaFort York, Toronto Centre,
TorontoDanforth, TorontoSt. Paul's,
UniversityRosedale, Willowdale, York Centre,
York SouthWeston

NORTH
TimiskamingCochrane, TimminsJames Bay,
AlgomaManitoulin, Sault Ste. Marie, Nipissing,
Thunder BaySuperior North, Thunder
BayAtikokanKenoraRainy River, Sudbury, Nickel
Belt, Parry SoundMuskoka,

SOUTH-CENTRAL
BrantfordBrant, Burlington,
FlamboroughGlanbrook, HaldimandNorfolk,
Hamilton Centre, Hamilton EastStoney Creek,
Hamilton Mountain, Hamilton
WestAncasterDundas, Milton, Niagara Centre,
Niagara Falls, Niagara West, Oakville, Oakville
NorthBurlington
SimcoeGrey, St. Catharines