Examen Parcial Lincuna

PROGNOSIS DEL PREC
1. PRECIO - DEMANDA - OFERTA............. PLATA:
a) PLATA
PRECIO
AO DEMANDA OFERTA
(US$/Oz)
1993 4.300 583675.67 760433.329
1994 5.280 608161.32 781240.145
1995 5.190 629072.52 790750.222
1996 5.180 691664.46 770614.906
1997 4.890 749172.75 809465.616
1998 5.540 791867.67 820430.720
1999 5.250 835805.83 861782.146
2000 5.000 875401.66 897346.358
2001 4.390 888184.14 878261.508
2002 4.630 847813.54 922375.579
2003 4.910 861800.65 952927.329
2004 6.690 868300.00 868300.000
2. PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DE LA PLATA CON LA DEMANDA
AO DEMANDA PRECIO
TM10*3 (US$/Oz)
1993 583675.67 4.300
1994 608161.32 5.280
1995 629072.52 5.190
1996 691664.46 5.180
1997 749172.75 4.890
1998 791867.67 5.540
1999 835805.83 5.250
2000 875401.66 5.000
2001 888184.14 4.390
2002 847813.54 4.630
2003 861800.65 4.910
2004 868300.00 6.690
Si analizamos la variacion de la regresion porcentual del precio frente a la variacion porcentu

de la demannda historica, asumimos una tendencia de caracter lineal del tipo:
P / P = ||c + b (D/D)|| --
Aplicando la ley de minimos cuadrados, tenemos :
P / P = cN + b D/D --------
(P / P)(D/D) = c( D/D)
CUADRO N.- 002
--------- (3)
AO P/P D/D (P/P)(D/D) (D/D)2
1995 -1.705 3.438 -5.8610 11.8228

1996 -0.193 9.950 -1.9171 99.0000
1997 -5.598 8.314 -46.5482 69.1305
1998 13.292 5.699 75.7528 32.4779
1999 -5.235 5.549 -29.0454 30.7878
2000 -4.762 4.737 -22.5593 22.4434
2001 -12.200 1.460 -17.8143 2.1321
2002 5.467 -4.545 -24.8490 20.6597
2003 6.048 1.650 9.9771 2.7218
2004 36.253 0.754 27.3402 0.5688
31.3672 37.0067 -35.5241 291.7449
Luego la ecuacion 1 queda determinada por:
P / P = ||6.76 + (-0.98) (D/D)|| ---
Asumimos que la serie estadistica de precios para calcular la demanda futura del plomo, pa
la siguiente formulacion :
D/D = d + (e) (t) ---------------------------------
D / D = dN + e t--------------------
(D/D)(t) = d( t) + e (t)2
------------------------------- (7)
CUADRO N.- 003
AO t D/D (D/D)x t t2
1995 1 3.438 3.4384 1

1996 2 9.950 19.8998 4
1997 3 8.314 24.9434 9
1998 4 5.699 22.7958 16
1999 5 5.549 27.7434 25
2000 6 4.737 28.4247 36
2001 7 1.460 10.2213 49
2002 8 -4.545 -36.3624 64
2003 9 1.650 14.8481 81
2004 10 0.754 7.5416 100
55.0000 37.0067 123.4940 385.0000
D / D = 9.04+ (-0.97)x t
CUADRO N.- 004
AO DEMANDA PRECIO VARIA. D

Dx103 (US$/Oz) D x 103
2004 868300.00 6.69 6499.35
2005 854098.84 7.249 -14201.16
2006 831843.34 7.925 -22255.50
2007 802097.09 8.738 -29746.25
2008 765632.49 7.758 -36464.60
2009 723397.35 8.702 -42235.14
2010 676473.55 9.843 -46923.80
2011 626030.25 11.227 -50443.30
2012 573274.57 12.913 -52755.68
2013 519402.63 10.851 -53871.94
2014 465553.84 9.016 -53848.79
PLATA (1993-2004)
8.000
7.000
f(x) = - 0.0001631944x^6 + 0.0071927319x^5 - 0.1207222536x^4 + 0.9791093986x^3 - 4.0094562323x^2 + 7.772936608
6.000
R = 0.9464540435
5.000
4.000
Precio(US$/OZ)
PRECIO
3.000
2.000
1.000
0.000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Ao
3. PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DE LA PLATA CON LA OFERTA

AO OFERTA PRECIO
TM10*3 (US$/Oz)
1990 760433.33 4.300
1991 781240.15 5.280
1992 790750.22 5.190
1993 770614.91 5.180
1994 809465.62 4.890
1995 820430.72 5.540
1996 861782.15 5.250
1997 897346.36 5.000
1998 878261.51 4.390
1999 922375.58 4.630
2000 952927.33 4.910
2001 868300.00 6.690
Si analizamos la variacion de la regresion porcentual del precio frent

de la Oferta historica, asumimos una tendencia de caracter lineal de
P / P = cN + b
(P / P)(O/O)
CUADRO N.- 002
--------- (3)
AO P/P O/O (P/P)(O/O)
1992 -1.705 1.217 -2.0750

1993 -0.193 -2.546 0.4906
1994 -5.598 5.042 -28.2247
1995 13.292 1.355 18.0061
1996 -5.235 5.040 -26.3838
1997 -4.762 4.127 -19.6515
1998 -12.200 -2.127 25.9471
1999 5.467 5.023 27.4600
2000 6.048 3.312 20.0311
2001 36.253 -8.881 -321.9507
31.3672 11.5617 -306.3508
P / P = ||5.29 + (-1.86) (
Asumimos que la serie estadistica de precios para calcular la oferta futu

O/O = d + (e) (t) -----------------
O / O = dN + e t-----
(O/O)(t) = d( t)
-------------------------------
CUADRO N.- 003

AO t O/O (O/O)x t
1992 1 1.217 1.2173

1993 2 -2.546 -5.0927
1994 3 5.042 15.1246
1995 4 1.355 5.4184
1996 5 5.040 25.2010
1997 6 4.127 24.7609
1998 7 -2.127 -14.8877
1999 8 5.023 40.1831
2000 9 3.312 29.8106
2001 10 -8.881 -88.8077
55.0000 11.5617 32.9278
CUADRO N.- 004

AO OFERTA PRECIO
Dx103 (US$/Oz)
2004 868300.00 6.69
2005 860590.10 7.155
2006 849750.23 7.701
2007 835888.77 8.343
2008 819146.80 7.590
2009 799695.75 8.327
2010 777734.47 9.194
2011 753485.81 10.215
2012 727192.82 11.419
2013 699114.69 9.993
2014 669522.40 8.677
8.000
7.000
f(x) = - 0.0001631944x^6 + 0.0071927319x^5 - 0.1207222536x^4 + 0.9791093986x^3 - 4.0094562323x^2 + 7.772936608
R = 0.9464540435 6.000
5.000
Precio(US$/OZ) 4.000
PRECIO
3.000 Polynomial (PRE
2.000
5.000
PRECIO
3.000 Polynomial (PRE
2.000
1.000
0.000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Ao
COMPARACION DE DATOS CALCULA
2004
Valor calculado 6.69
US$/Oz
Valor real 6.69
Diferencia US$/Oz 0.00

OSIS DEL PRECIOS DE LOS METALES
PRECIO
AO
(US$/Oz)
2003 4.910
2004 6.690
2005 7.340
2006 11.570
2007 13.420
2008 15.010
2009 14.680
2010 20.190
2011 35.170
2012 31.170
2013 23.860
2014 19.080
LA DEMANDA
CUADRO N.- 001
AO DEMANDA PRECIO VARIA. D VARIA. P D/D
TM10*3 (US$/Oz) D x 103 P. (%)
1992 608161.32 5.280 - - -
1993 629072.52 5.190 20911.20 -0.09 3.438
1994 691664.46 5.180 62591.94 -0.01 9.950
1995 749172.75 4.890 57508.29 -0.29 8.314
1996 791867.67 5.540 42694.92 0.65 5.699
1997 835805.83 5.250 43938.17 -0.29 5.549
1998 875401.66 5.000 39595.83 -0.25 4.737
1999 888184.14 4.390 12782.48 -0.61 1.460
2000 847813.54 4.630 -40370.60 0.24 -4.545
2001 861800.65 4.910 13987.11 0.28 1.650
2002 868300.00 6.690 6499.35 1.78 0.754
ecio frente a la variacion porcentual de la demanda, se establece la relacion precio historico con relacion
acter lineal del tipo:
P = ||c + b (D/D)|| ------------------------------- (1)
cN + b D/D ----------------------------------- (2)
)(D/D) = c( D/D) + b (D/D)2

3)
Sustituyendo en las
ecuaciones 2 y 3 31.3672 = 10
-35.5241 = 37.0067
b =
c =
+ (-0.98) (D/D)|| ------------------------------- (4)
r la demanda futura del plomo, para lo cual concideramos

----------------------------------- (5)
+ e t----------------------------------- (6)
= d( t) + e (t)2
------------- (7)
AO t D/D
Futura
2012 11 -1.64
2013 12 -2.61 37.0067 =
2014 13 -3.58
2015 14 -4.55 123.4940 =
2016 15 -5.52
2017 16 -6.49
2018 17 -7.46
2019 18 -8.43 e
2020 19 -9.40
2021 20 -10.37 d
D / D = 9.04+ (-0.97)x t ------------------------------- (5)

VARIA. P D/D P/P SIGNOS
P (%) (%)
1.78 0.75 36.25 1
0.56 -1.64 8.36 1
0.68 -2.61 9.31 1
0.81 -3.58 10.26 1
-0.98 -4.55 -11.21 -1
0.94 -5.52 12.16 1
1.14 -6.49 13.11 1
1.38 -7.46 14.06 1
1.69 -8.43 15.01 1
-2.06 -9.40 -15.96 -1
-1.84 -10.37 -16.91 -1
PLATA (2004-2014
14.00
12.00
f(x) = 0.0010661581x^6 - 0.0385941694x^5 + 0.5311696761x^4 - 3.4819985895x^3 + 11
^3 - 4.0094562323x^2 + 7.7729366087x - 0.3325 R = 0.9736248574
10.00
8.00
Precio(US$/OZ)
PRECIO 6.00
4.00
2.00
2002 2003 2004 0.00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ao
PLATA CON LA OFERTA

PLATA CON LA OFERTA
CUADRO N.- 001
AO OFERTA PRECIO VARIA. O VARIA. P
TM10*3 (US$/Oz) O x 103 P.
1991 781240.15 5.280 - -
1992 790750.22 5.190 9510.08 -0.09
1993 770614.91 5.180 -20135.32 -0.01
1994 809465.62 4.890 38850.71 -0.29
1995 820430.72 5.540 10965.10 0.65
1996 861782.15 5.250 41351.43 -0.29
1997 897346.36 5.000 35564.21 -0.25
1998 878261.51 4.390 -19084.85 -0.61
1999 922375.58 4.630 44114.07 0.24
2000 952927.33 4.910 30551.75 0.28
2001 868300.00 6.690 -84627.33 1.78
resion porcentual del precio frente a la variacion porcentual de la Oferta, se establece la relacion precio historico con rel
na tendencia de caracter lineal del tipo:
P / P = ||c + b (O/O)|| ------------------------------- (1)
dos, tenemos :
P / P = cN + b O/O ----------------------------------- (2)
(P / P)(O/O) = c( O/O) + b (O/O)2

--------- (3)
(O/O)2
1.4818
Sustituyendo en las
6.4839 ecuaciones 2 y 3 31.3672 =
25.4169
1.8350 -306.3508 =
25.4037
17.0307
4.5233
25.2294 b
10.9713
78.8682 c
197.2441
inada por:
P / P = ||5.29 + (-1.86) (O/O)|| ------------------------------- (4)
precios para calcular la oferta futura del plomo, para lo cual concideramos
+ (e) (t) ---------------------------------------- (5)
ados, tenemos :
O / O = dN + e t----------------------------------- (6)
(O/O)(t) = d( t) + e (t)2
------------------------------ (7)
t2 AO t O/O
Futura
1 2012 11 -0.89
4 2013 12 -1.26 11.5617
9 2014 13 -1.63
16 2015 14 -2.00 32.9278
25 2016 15 -2.37
36 2017 16 -2.75
49 2018 17 -3.12
64 2019 18 -3.49
81 2020 19 -3.86
100 2021 20 -4.23
385.0000
ada por:
O / O = 3.20 + (-0.37)x t ------------------------------- (5)
CUADRO N.- 004

VARIA. D VARIA. P O/O P/P SIGNO
D x 103 P.(US$/Oz) (%) (%)
-84627.33 1.78 -8.88 36.25 1
-7709.90 0.46 -0.89 6.95 1
-10839.87 0.55 -1.26 7.64 1
-13861.47 0.64 -1.63 8.33 1
-16741.97 -0.75 -2.00 -9.02 -1
-19451.04 0.74 -2.37 9.72 1
-21961.28 0.87 -2.75 10.41 1
-24248.66 1.02 -3.12 11.10 1
-26292.99 1.20 -3.49 11.79 1
-28078.14 -1.43 -3.86 -12.49 -1
-29592.29 -1.32 -4.23 -13.18 -1
12.00
f(x) = 0.0007797384x^6 - 0.0282127653x^5 + 0.3880777834x^4 - 2.5415858445x^3

10.00
R = 0.9763440617
x^3 - 4.0094562323x^2 + 7.7729366087x - 0.3325
8.00
6.00
Precio(US$/OZ)
PRECIO
Polynomial (PRECIO)
4.00
8.00
6.00
Precio(US$/OZ)
PRECIO
Polynomial (PRECIO)
4.00
2.00
0.00
02 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ao
OS CALCULADOS CON LOS DATOS REALES
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
7.20 7.81 8.54 7.67 8.51 9.52
7.34 11.57 13.42 15.01 14.68 20.19
0.14 3.76 4.88 7.34 6.17 10.67

P/P
(%)
-
-1.705
-0.193
-5.598
13.292
-5.235
-4.762
-12.200
5.467
6.048
36.253
orico con relacion
c + 37.0067 b
c + 291.7449 b
-0.98 31.3672249
6.76 -35.5241295
10 d + 55.0000 e
55.0000 d + 385.0000 e
= -0.97 37.0066785
= 9.04 123.49401
PLATA (2004-2014)
0.5311696761x^4 - 3.4819985895x^3 + 11.1643160153x^2 - 15.5907501173x + 14.1361555611
PRECIO
Polynomial (PRECIO)
07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ao
O/O P/P
(%) (%)
- -
1.217 -1.705
-2.546 -0.193
5.042 -5.598
1.355 13.292
5.040 -5.235
4.127 -4.762
-2.127 -12.200
5.023 5.467
3.312 6.048
-8.881 36.253
a relacion precio historico con relacion
10 c + 11.5617 b
11.5617 c + 197.2441 b
= -1.86 31.3672249
= 5.29 -306.35081
= 10 d + 55.0000 e
= 55.0000 d + 385.0000 e
e = -0.37 11.5617018
d = 3.20 32.9278486
x^5 + 0.3880777834x^4 - 2.5415858445x^3 + 8.1311368691x^2 - 11.2637191232x + 12.0241527779
PRECIO
PRECIO
007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ao
OS REALES
2011 2012 2013 2014
10.72 12.17 10.42 8.85
35.17 31.17 23.86 19.08
24.45 19.00 13.44 10.23

BALANCE METALURGICO
Leyes Contenido Distribucion Ratio
Productos TMS Onz. Ag %Pb %Zn As (%) Sb (%) Hg (ppm) % SiO2 %Ag %Pb %Zn %Ag %Pb %Zn
Alimentacion 350.000 4.300 4.810 7.780 - - - - 1505.000 16.835 27.230 100.000 100.000 100.000
Conc. (Pb) 20.128 75.400 52.270 5.840 1.200 1.010 - - 1517.655 10.521 1.175 67.755 62.494 4.317 17.389
Conc. (Zn) 50.164 7.930 5.840 50.600 0.600 0.040 - 2.020 397.804 2.930 25.383 17.760 17.402 93.218 6.977
Relave 279.707 1.160 1.210 0.240 - - - - 324.461 3.384 0.671 14.485 20.104 2.465
Calculado 350.000 2239.920 16.835 27.230
POR LO TANTO LOS ELEMENTOS PAGABLES: ELEMENTOS PRIMARIOS PAGABLES
CONCENTRADOS DE PLOMO: Pb, Ag. plomo

zinc
ELEMENTOS PENALIZABLES:
As (%) 1.200 ELEMENTOS SECUNDARIOS PAGABLES
Sb (%) 1.010
plata
CONCENTRADOS DE ZINC: Zn, Ag.
ELEMENTOS PENALIZABLES:
As (%) 0.600
Sb (%) 0.040
% SiO2 2.020
1. DATOS DE LA MINA:
RESERVAS DE MINERAL: 1250000 TMS

EXPLOTACION ECONOMICA DIARIA: 350 TMS/DIA
2. CALCULO DE LA VIDA UTIL DE LA MINA:
VIDA UTIL 3571 Dias

VIDA UTIL 10 Aos
PRECIO - OFERTA
METALES
a) PLOMO
PRECIO
AO DEMANDA OFERTA
(Ctvs.U$/lb)
2005 44.290 6787.00 6844.00
2006 58.500 6998.00 7296.00
2007 117.030 7632.00 7801.00
2008 94.831 7922.00 8068.00
2009 77.910 8114.00 8181.00
2010 97.605 9196.00 9188.00
2011 108.970 9204.00 9213.00
2012 93.540 9816.00 9788.00
2013 97.170 10549.000 10389.000
2014 95.070 10621.000 10582.000
2015 107.934 10720.000 10720.000
FUENTES:
* Precios: http://www.kitco.com/
* Demanda y Oferta mundial de la Plata: "THE SILVER INSTITUTE"... www.silverinstitute.org.
* Demanda y oferta del Zinc : " LATIZA"-ASOCIACION LATINOAMERICANA DE ZINC...www.LATIZ
* Demanda y Oferta mundial de Cobre : Comision Chilena de Cobre(COCHILCO)..."Estudio de Mer

e Internacional"... documento elaborado en la Direccion de estudios
y politicas publicas, dirigido por el Ing Victor Garay Lucero y teniendo
como director de estudios al Ing. Vicente Perez Vidal.
* Demanda y Oferta mundial del Plomo: ESTADSTICAS FINANCIERAS INTERNACIONALES - FON

MONETARIO INTERNACIONAL(FMI).
En general, se recomienda leer "LAS PERSPECTIVAS DE LA ECONOMIA MUNDIAL-2015"... elab
el departamento de ESTUDIOS ECONOMICOS Y FINACIEROS de "El Fondo Monetrio Internacion

- OFERTA Y DEMANDA DE LOS
S b) ZINC
PRECIO
AO DEMANDA OFERTA
(Ctvs.U$/lb)
2005 62.68 9843.00 9874.00
2006 148.56 10645.00 10353.00
2007 147.07 10626.00 10228.00
2008 85.04 11064.00 10731.00
2009 75.05 11229.00 11193.00
2010 98.18 11574.00 11772.00
2011 99.50 10920.00 11282.00
2012 88.35 12637.00 12883.00
2013 86.65 12746.00 13119.00
2014 98.18 12344.00 12609.00
2015 108.80 13678.00 13678.00
"... www.silverinstitute.org.
ERICANA DE ZINC...www.LATIZA.com
e(COCHILCO)..."Estudio de Mercado Nacional

de estudios
ro y teniendo
ERAS INTERNACIONALES - FONDO
NOMIA MUNDIAL-2015"... elaborado por
e "El Fondo Monetrio Internacional (FMI)"

E LOS
c) PLATA
AO PRECIO ($/Oz) DEMANDA OFERTA
2005 7.34 889800.00 889800.00

2006 11.57 874100.00 874100.00
2007 13.42 951700.00 951700.00
2008 15.01 926000.00 926000.00
2009 14.68 913000.00 913000.00
2010 20.19 914300.00 914300.00
2011 35.17 929100.00 929100.00
2012 31.17 1074700.00 1074700.00
2013 23.86 1040600.00 1040600.00
2014 19.08 1048300.00 1048300.00
2015 16.34 1054300.00 1054300.00
PROGNOSIS DEL PREC
1. PRECIO - DEMANDA - OFERTA............. PLOMO:
a) PLOMO
PRECIO
AO DEMANDA OFERTA
(Ctvs.U$/lb)
2005 44.290 6787.00 6844.00
2006 58.500 6998.00 7296.00
2007 117.030 7632.00 7801.00
2008 94.831 7922.00 8068.00
2009 77.910 8114.00 8181.00
2010 97.605 9196.00 9188.00
2011 108.970 9204.00 9213.00
2012 93.540 9816.00 9788.00
2013 97.170 10549.000 10389.000
2014 95.070 10621.000 10582.000
2015 107.934 10720.000 10720.000
2. PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DEL PLOMO CON LA DEMANDA
AO DEMANDA PRECIO
TM10*3 (Ctvs.U$/lb)
2005 6787.00 44.290
2006 6998.00 58.500
2007 7632.00 117.030
2008 7922.00 94.831
2009 8114.00 77.910
2010 9196.00 97.605
2011 9204.00 108.970
2012 9816.00 93.540
2013 10549.00 97.170
2014 10621.00 95.070
2015 10720.00 107.934
P / P = ||c + b (D/D)|| --
P / P = cN + b D/D --------
(P / P)(D/D) = c( D/D)
CUADRO N.- 002
--------- (3)
2006 32.084 3.109 99.7454 9.6652

2007 100.051 9.060 906.4345 82.0787
2008 -18.969 3.800 -72.0766 14.4384
2009 -17.843 2.424 -43.2454 5.8740
2010 25.279 13.335 337.0985 177.8216
2011 11.644 0.087 1.0129 0.0076
2012 -14.160 6.649 -94.1524 44.2130
2013 3.881 7.467 28.9787 55.7621
2014 -2.161 0.683 -1.4751 0.4658
2015 13.531 0.932 12.6125 0.8688
133.3369 47.5453 1174.9332 391.1952
P / P = ||-4.12 + 3.51 (D/D)|| ----
D/D = d + (e) (t) ---------------------------------
D / D = dN + e t--------------------
(D/D)(t) = d( t) + e (t)2
------------------------------- (7)
CUADRO N.- 003
2006 1 3.109 3.1089 1

2007 2 9.060 18.1195 4
2008 3 3.800 11.3994 9
2009 4 2.424 9.6945 16
2010 5 13.335 66.6749 25
2011 6 0.087 0.5220 36
2012 7 6.649 46.5450 49
2013 8 7.467 59.7392 64
2014 9 0.683 6.1428 81
2015 10 0.932 9.3212 100
55.0000 47.5453 231.2672 385.0000
D / D = 4.73 + (0.03)x t
CUADRO N.- 004

CUADRO N.- 004

Dx103 (Ctvs.U$/lb) D x 103
2015 10720.00 107.93 99.00
2016 11013.63 115.199 293.63
2017 11274.94 121.571 261.31
2018 11501.13 126.835 226.19
2019 11689.71 122.865 188.58
2020 11838.55 120.495 148.84
2021 11945.91 121.373 107.35
2022 12010.46 120.801 64.55
2023 12031.34 118.781 20.89
2024 12008.18 122.193 -23.17
2025 11941.05 127.170 -67.13
PLOMO (2005-2015)
140.00
117.03
120.00
f(x) = - 0.0373393446x^6 + 1.3407238897x^5 - 18.8880123807x^4 + 131.7369018475x^3 - 470.260749256x^2 + 792.1468610101x - 377.
108.97 107.93
R = 0.9433784408
100.00 97.61 97.17 95.07
94.83 93.54
80.00 77.91
Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
58.50
60.00 Precio(Ctvs.U$/lb)
Polynomial
40.00 (Precio(Ctvs.U$/lb))
20.00
0.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ao
3. PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DEL PLOMO CON LA OFERTA

AO OFERTA PRECIO
TM10*3 (Ctvs.U$/lb)
2005 6844.00 44.290
2006 7296.00 58.500
2007 7801.00 117.030
2008 8068.00 94.831
2009 8181.00 77.910
2010 9188.00 97.605
2011 9213.00 108.970
2012 9788.00 93.540
2013 10389.00 97.170
2014 10582.00 95.070
2015 10720.00 107.934

P / P = cN + b
(P / P)(O/O)
CUADRO N.- 002
--------- (3)
2006 32.084 6.604 211.8931

2007 100.051 6.922 692.5126
2008 -18.969 3.423 -64.9226
2009 -17.843 1.401 -24.9911
2010 25.279 12.309 311.1628
2011 11.644 0.272 3.1682
2012 -14.160 6.241 -88.3737
2013 3.881 6.140 23.8281
2014 -2.161 1.858 -4.0149
2015 13.531 1.304 17.6459
133.3369 46.4734 1077.9084
P / P = ||-6.29 + 4.0359

O/O = d + (e) (t) -----------------
O / O = dN + e t-----
(O/O)(t) = d( t)
-------------------------------
CUADRO N.- 003

AO t O/O (O/O)x t
2006 1 6.604 6.6043

2007 2 6.922 13.8432
2008 3 3.423 10.2679
2009 4 1.401 5.6024
2010 5 12.309 61.5450
2011 6 0.272 1.6326
2012 7 6.241 43.6883
2013 8 6.140 49.1214
2014 9 1.858 16.7196
2015 10 1.304 13.0410
55.0000 46.4734 222.0657
CUADRO N.- 004

AO OFERTA PRECIO
Dx103 (Ctvs.U$/lb)
2015 10720.00 107.93
2016 10978.51 113.307
2017 11198.62 117.225
2018 11377.62 119.498
2019 11513.23 118.996
2020 11603.65 120.305
2021 11647.61 117.154
2022 11644.38 112.306
2023 11593.82 105.953
2024 11496.35 113.557
2025 11352.96 123.431
140.000
117.030
120.000
108.970 107.934
f(x) = 0.0143658837x^6 - 0.4994718481x^5 +
94.831 6.641324695x^4 - 41.8686095671x^3 + 123.7630723927x^2 - 133.7668138794x + 87.
100.000 97.605
R = 0.7423862455 97.170 95.070
93.540
80.000 77.910
Precio(CtvsU$/lb) 58.500
60.000 precio(CtvsU$/l
44.290 b)
108.970 107.934
f(x) = 0.0143658837x^6 - 0.4994718481x^5 + 6.641324695x^4 - 41.8686095671x^3 + 123.7630723927x^2 - 133.7668138794x + 87.
94.831
100.000 97.605
R = 0.7423862455 97.170 95.070
93.540
80.000 77.910
44.290 b)
40.000 Polynomial
(precio(CtvsU$
/lb))
20.000
0.000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ao
A DEMANDA
CUADRO N.- 001
TM10*3 (Ctvs.U$/lb) D x 103 P.(Ctvs.U$/lb) (%)
2005 6787.00 44.29 - - -
2006 6998.00 58.50 211.00 14.21 3.109
2007 7632.00 117.03 634.00 58.53 9.060
2008 7922.00 94.83 290.00 -22.20 3.800
2009 8114.00 77.91 192.00 -16.92 2.424
2010 9196.00 97.61 1082.00 19.70 13.335
2011 9204.00 108.97 8.00 11.36 0.087
2012 9816.00 93.54 612.00 -15.43 6.649
2013 10549.00 97.17 733.00 3.63 7.467
2014 10621.00 95.07 72.00 -2.10 0.683
2015 10720.00 107.93 99.00 12.86 0.932
P = ||c + b (D/D)|| ------------------------------- (1)
cN + b D/D ----------------------------------- (2)
)(D/D) = c( D/D) + b (D/D)2

3)
133.3369 = 10
Sustituyendo en las
ecuaciones 2 y 3
1174.9332 = 47.5453
b =
c =
2 + 3.51 (D/D)|| ------------------------------- (4)

----------------------------------- (5)
+ e t----------------------------------- (6)
= d( t) + e (t)2
------------- (7)
AO t D/D
Futura
2012 11 2.74
2013 12 2.37 47.5453 =
2014 13 2.01
2015 14 1.64 231.2672 =
2016 15 1.27
2017 16 0.91
2018 17 0.54
2019 18 0.17 e
2020 19 -0.19
2021 20 -0.56 d
D / D = 4.73 + (0.03)x t ------------------------------- (5)

P.(Ctvs.U$/lb) (%) (%)
12.86 0.93 13.53 -1
7.27 2.74 6.73 1
6.37 2.37 5.53 1
5.26 2.01 4.33 1
-3.97 1.64 -3.13 -1
-2.37 1.27 -1.93 -1
0.88 0.91 0.73 1
-0.57 0.54 -0.47 1
-2.02 0.17 -1.67 1
3.41 -0.19 2.87 -1
4.98 -0.56 4.07 -1
PLOMO (2015-2
130.00
126.835
f(x) = 0.0021745817x^6
125.00 - 0.0801392928x^5 + 1.146827742x^4 - 7.8623082908x^3
470.260749256x^2 + 792.1468610101x - 377.624662599
107.93 R = 0.9596567707
122.865
121.571 121.373 1
120.00 120.495
115.00 115.199
Precio(Ctvs.U$/lb) Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
110.00
107.934
Polynomial
(Precio(Ctvs.U$/lb)) 105.00
100.00
95.00
2015 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Ao
OMO CON LA OFERTA

CUADRO N.- 001
TM10*3 (Ctvs.U$/lb) O x 103 P.(Ctvs.U$/lb)
2005 6844.00 44.290 - -

2006 7296.00 58.500 452.00 14.21
2007 7801.00 117.030 505.00 58.53
2008 8068.00 94.831 267.00 -22.20
2009 8181.00 77.910 113.00 -16.92
2010 9188.00 97.605 1007.00 19.70
2011 9213.00 108.970 25.00 11.36
2012 9788.00 93.540 575.00 -15.43
2013 10389.00 97.170 601.00 3.63
2014 10582.00 95.070 193.00 -2.10
2015 10720.00 107.934 138.00 12.86
P / P = ||c + b (O/O)|| ------------------------------- (1)
dos, tenemos :
P / P = cN + b O/O ----------------------------------- (2)
(P / P)(O/O) = c( O/O) + b (O/O)2

--------- (3)
(O/O)2
43.6171
Sustituyendo en las
47.9086 ecuaciones 2 y 3 133.3369 =
11.7145
1.9617 1077.9084 =
151.5117
0.0740
38.9523
37.7017 b
3.4512
1.7007 c
338.5934
inada por:
P / P = ||-6.29 + 4.0359 (O/O)|| ------------------------------- (4)
+ (e) (t) ---------------------------------------- (5)
ados, tenemos :
O / O = dN + e t----------------------------------- (6)
(O/O)(t) = d( t) + e (t)2
------------------------------ (7)
t2 AO t O/O
Futura
1 2013 11 2.41
4 2014 12 2.00 46.4734
9 2015 13 1.60
16 2016 14 1.19 222.0657
25 2017 15 0.79
36 2018 16 0.38
49 2019 17 -0.03
64 2020 18 -0.43
81 2021 19 -0.84
100 2022 20 -1.25
385.0000
ada por:
O / O = 5.18 + (-0.07)x t ------------------------------- (5)
CUADRO N.- 004

D x 103 P.(Ctvs.U$/lb) (%) (%)
138.00 12.86 1.30 13.53 -1
258.51 5.37 2.41 4.98 1
220.11 3.92 2.00 3.46 1
179.00 2.27 1.60 1.94 1
135.61 -0.50 1.19 -0.42 -1
90.42 1.31 0.79 1.10 -1
43.96 -3.15 0.38 -2.62 1
-3.23 -4.85 -0.03 -4.14 1
-50.56 -6.35 -0.43 -5.66 1
-97.47 7.60 -0.84 7.18 -1
-143.39 9.87 -1.25 8.70 -1
125.00
f(x) = - 0.0020248892x^6 + 0.0761218123x^5 - 1.0781047594x^4 + 7.2913661
R = 0.9481942658 120.305
107.934 120.00 119.498 118.996
.7630723927x^2 - 133.7668138794x + 87.4027921592
70 95.070 117.225 117.154
115.00
113.307
11
110.00
Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
precio(CtvsU$/l 107.934
b)
105.00
107.934 119.498 118.996
.7630723927x^2 - 133.7668138794x + 87.4027921592
70 95.070 117.225 117.154
115.00
113.307
11
110.00
Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
b)
105.00
Polynomial
(precio(CtvsU$
/lb)) 100.00
95.00
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2014 2015
Ao
P/P
(%)
-
32.084
100.051
-18.969
-17.843
25.279
11.644
-14.160
3.881
-2.161
13.531
on relacion
c + 47.5453 b
c + 391.1952 b
3.28 133.33688
-2.24 1174.9332
10 d + 55.0000 e
55.0000 d + 385.0000 e
= -0.37 47.545336
= 6.77 231.26719
PLOMO (2015-2025)
35 127.170
827742x^4 - 7.8623082908x^3 + 25.1958933274x^2 - 28.2740524036x + 117.7972413573
122.865 122.193
121.373 120.801
120.495
118.781
Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
Polynomial
(Precio(CtvsU$/lb))
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Ao
O/O P/P
(%) (%)
- -
6.604 32.084
6.922 100.051
3.423 -18.969
1.401 -17.843
12.309 25.279
0.272 11.644
6.241 -14.160
6.140 3.881
1.858 -2.161
1.304 13.531
on precio historico con relacion
10 c + 46.4734 b
46.4734 c + 338.5934 b
= 3.7373 133.33688
= -4.03 1077.9084
= 10 d + 55.0000 e
= 55.0000 d + 385.0000 e
e = -0.41 46.47345
d = 6.88 222.06569
123.431
- 1.0781047594x^4 + 7.2913661481x^3 - 25.1480865651x^2 + 44.7485957943x + 81.8483146234
120.305
.498 118.996
117.154
113.557
112.306
105.953 precio(ctvsU$/lb)
.498 118.996
117.154
113.557
112.306
105.953 precio(ctvsU$/lb)
Polynomial
(precio(ctvsU$/lb))
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Ao
PROGNOSIS DEL PREC
1. PRECIO - DEMANDA - OFERTA............. ZINC:
a) PLOMO
PRECIO
AO DEMANDA OFERTA
(Ctvs.U$/lb)
2005 62.68 9843.00 9874.00
2006 148.56 10645.00 10353.00
2007 147.07 10626.00 10228.00
2008 85.04 11064.00 10731.00
2009 75.05 11229.00 11193.00
2010 98.18 11574.00 11772.00
2011 99.50 10920.00 11282.00
2012 88.35 12637.00 12883.00
2013 86.65 12746.00 13119.00
2014 98.18 12344.00 12609.00
2015 108.80 13678.00 13678.00
2. PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DEL ZINC CON LA DEMANDA
AO DEMANDA PRECIO
TM10*3 (Ctvs.U$/lb)
2005 9843.00 62.680
2006 10645.00 148.560
2007 10626.00 147.074
2008 11064.00 85.035
2009 11229.00 75.050
2010 11574.00 98.176
2011 10920.00 99.501
2012 12637.00 88.350
2013 12746.00 86.650
2014 12344.00 98.180
2015 13678.00 108.798
P / P = ||c + b (D/D)|| --
P / P = cN + b D/D --------
(P / P)(D/D) = c( D/D)
CUADRO N.- 002
--------- (3)
2006 137.013 8.148 1116.3746 66.3886

2007 -1.000 -0.178 0.1786 0.0319
2008 -42.182 4.122 -173.8721 16.9906
2009 -11.743 1.491 -17.5120 2.2240
2010 30.815 3.072 94.6752 9.4397
2011 1.350 -5.651 -7.6257 31.9292
2012 -11.207 15.723 -176.2169 247.2267
2013 -1.924 0.863 -1.6597 0.7440
2014 13.306 -3.154 -41.9675 9.9473
2015 10.815 10.807 116.8745 116.7884
125.2426 35.2435 909.2490 501.7104
P / P = ||-4.12 + 3.51 (D/D)|| ----
D/D = d + (e) (t) ---------------------------------
D / D = dN + e t--------------------
(D/D)(t) = d( t) + e (t)2
------------------------------- (7)
CUADRO N.- 003
2006 1 8.148 8.1479 1

2007 2 -0.178 -0.3570 4
2008 3 4.122 12.3659 9
2009 4 1.491 5.9653 16
2010 5 3.072 15.3620 25
2011 6 -5.651 -33.9036 36
2012 7 15.723 110.0641 49
2013 8 0.863 6.9004 64
2014 9 -3.154 -28.3854 81
2015 10 10.807 108.0687 100
55.0000 35.2435 204.2284 385.0000
D / D = 4.73 + (0.03)x t
CUADRO N.- 004

CUADRO N.- 004

2015 13678.00 108.80 1334.00
2016 14254.80 123.358 576.80
2017 14873.87 140.059 619.07
2018 15538.56 159.240 664.69
2019 16252.52 137.184 713.96
2020 17019.75 117.969 767.23
2021 17844.63 134.677 824.88
2022 18731.97 153.961 887.33
2023 19687.01 176.247 955.05
2024 20715.55 150.460 1028.53
2025 21823.90 128.211 1108.35
ZINC (2005-2015)
160.000 148.560
f(x) = - 0.0185715906x^6 + 0.7666737239x^5 - 12.4865254529x^4 + 101.3013411543x^3 - 422.0190978296x^2 + 819.0972526983x - 425.8
147.074
R = 0.9071707761
140.000
120.000
108.798
100.000 98.176 99.501 98.180
85.035 88.350 86.650
80.000
62.680 Precio(Ctvs.U$/lb)
60.000
Polynomial
(Precio(Ctvs.U$/lb))
40.000
20.000
0.000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ao
3. PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DEL ZINC CON LA OFERTA

AO OFERTA PRECIO
TM10*3 (Ctvs.U$/lb)
2005 9874.00 62.680
2006 10353.00 148.560
2007 10228.00 147.074
2008 10731.00 85.035
2009 11193.00 75.050
2010 11772.00 98.176
2011 11282.00 99.501
2012 12883.00 88.350
2013 13119.00 86.650
2014 12609.00 98.180
2015 13678.00 108.798

P / P = cN + b
(P / P)(O/O)
CUADRO N.- 002
--------- (3)
2006 137.013 4.851 664.6690

2007 -1.000 -1.207 1.2079
2008 -42.182 4.918 -207.4449
2009 -11.743 4.305 -50.5552
2010 30.815 5.173 159.4008
2011 1.350 -4.162 -5.6174
2012 -11.207 14.191 -159.0395
2013 -1.924 1.832 -3.5248
2014 13.306 -3.887 -51.7285
2015 10.815 8.478 91.6889
125.2426 34.4906 439.0562
P / P = ||-6.29 + 4.0359

O/O = d + (e) (t) -----------------
O / O = dN + e t-----
(O/O)(t) = d( t)
-------------------------------
CUADRO N.- 003

AO t O/O (O/O)x t
2006 1 4.851 4.8511

2007 2 -1.207 -2.4148
2008 3 4.918 14.7536
2009 4 4.305 17.2211
2010 5 5.173 25.8644
2011 6 -4.162 -24.9745
2012 7 14.191 99.3352
2013 8 1.832 14.6550
2014 9 -3.887 -34.9874
2015 10 8.478 84.7807
55.0000 34.4906 199.0845
CUADRO N.- 004

AO OFERTA PRECIO
Dx103 (Ctvs.U$/lb)
2015 13678.00 108.80
2016 14235.35 122.441
2017 14831.61 137.799
2018 15469.72 155.086
2019 16152.89 135.625
2020 16884.60 118.603
2021 17668.67 133.492
2022 18509.25 150.255
2023 19410.88 169.126
2024 20378.52 147.880
2025 21417.57 129.298
160.000
148.560 147.074
f(x) = - 0.0185715906x^6 + 0.7666737239x^5 - 12.4865254529x^4 + 101.3013411543x^3 - 422.0190978296x^2 + 819.0972526983x - 425
R = 0.9071707761
140.000
120.000
108.798
100.000 98.176 99.501 98.180
85.035
88.350 86.650
80.000
60.000 b)
120.000
108.798
100.000 98.176 99.501 98.180
85.035
88.350 86.650
80.000
60.000 b)
Polynomial
40.000 (precio(CtvsU$
/lb))
20.000
0.000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ao
DEMANDA
CUADRO N.- 001
2005 9843.00 62.680 - - -
2006 10645.00 148.560 802.00 85.88 8.148
2007 10626.00 147.074 -19.00 -1.49 -0.178
2008 11064.00 85.035 438.00 -62.04 4.122
2009 11229.00 75.050 165.00 -9.99 1.491
2010 11574.00 98.176 345.00 23.13 3.072
2011 10920.00 99.501 -654.00 1.32 -5.651
2012 12637.00 88.350 1717.00 -11.15 15.723
2013 12746.00 86.650 109.00 -1.70 0.863
2014 12344.00 98.180 -402.00 11.53 -3.154
2015 13678.00 108.798 1334.00 10.62 10.807
P = ||c + b (D/D)|| ------------------------------- (1)
cN + b D/D ----------------------------------- (2)
)(D/D) = c( D/D) + b (D/D)2

3)
Sustituyendo en las
ecuaciones 2 y 3 125.2426 = 10
909.2490 = 35.2435
b =
c =
2 + 3.51 (D/D)|| ------------------------------- (4)

----------------------------------- (5)
+ e t----------------------------------- (6)
= d( t) + e (t)2
------------- (7)
AO t D/D
Futura
2012 11 4.22
2013 12 4.34 35.2435 =
2014 13 4.47
2015 14 4.59 204.2284 =
2016 15 4.72
2017 16 4.85
2018 17 4.97
2019 18 5.10 e
2020 19 5.22
2021 20 5.35 d
D / D = 4.73 + (0.03)x t ------------------------------- (5)

P.(Ctvs.U$/lb) (%) (%)
10.62 10.81 10.81 -1
14.56 4.22 13.38 1
16.70 4.34 13.54 1
19.18 4.47 13.69 1
-22.06 4.59 -13.85 -1
-19.22 4.72 -14.01 -1
16.71 4.85 14.16 1
19.28 4.97 14.32 1
22.29 5.10 14.48 1
-25.79 5.22 -14.63 -1
-22.25 5.35 -14.79 -1
ZINC (2015-2025
22.0190978296x^2 + 819.0972526983x - 425.8577714792 200.00
180.00 1
f(x) = 0.0235205647x^6
160.00 - 0.8742572856x^5 + 12.4537459047x^4 - 84.937450796x^3 + 28
159.240
R = 0.9338348467 153.961
108.798 140.00 140.059 137.184 134.677
0
120.00 123.358
117.969
108.798
100.00
Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
Precio(Ctvs.U$/lb)
80.00
Polynomial
(Precio(Ctvs.U$/lb)) 60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
015 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Ao
C CON LA OFERTA
CUADRO N.- 001
2005 9874.00 62.680 - -

2006 10353.00 148.560 479.00 85.88
2007 10228.00 147.074 -125.00 -1.49
2008 10731.00 85.035 503.00 -62.04
2009 11193.00 75.050 462.00 -9.99
2010 11772.00 98.176 579.00 23.13
2011 11282.00 99.501 -490.00 1.32
2012 12883.00 88.350 1601.00 -11.15
2013 13119.00 86.650 236.00 -1.70
2014 12609.00 98.180 -510.00 11.53
2015 13678.00 108.798 1069.00 10.62
P / P = ||c + b (O/O)|| ------------------------------- (1)
dos, tenemos :
P / P = cN + b O/O ----------------------------------- (2)
(P / P)(O/O) = c( O/O) + b (O/O)2

--------- (3)
(O/O)2
23.5334
Sustituyendo en las
1.4578 ecuaciones 2 y 3 125.2426 =
24.1855
18.5355 439.0562 =
26.7586
17.3257
201.3773
3.3558 b
15.1126
71.8777 c
403.5198
inada por:
P / P = ||-6.29 + 4.0359 (O/O)|| ------------------------------- (4)
+ (e) (t) ---------------------------------------- (5)
ados, tenemos :
O / O = dN + e t----------------------------------- (6)
(O/O)(t) = d( t) + e (t)2
------------------------------ (7)
t2 AO t O/O
Futura
1 2013 11 4.07
4 2014 12 4.19 34.4906
9 2015 13 4.30
16 2016 14 4.42 199.0845
25 2017 15 4.53
36 2018 16 4.64
49 2019 17 4.76
64 2020 18 4.87
81 2021 19 4.99
100 2022 20 5.10
385.0000
ada por:
O / O = 5.18 + (-0.07)x t ------------------------------- (5)
CUADRO N.- 004

D x 103 P.(Ctvs.U$/lb) (%) (%)
1069.00 10.62 8.48 10.81 -1
557.35 13.64 4.07 12.54 1
596.26 15.36 4.19 12.54 1
638.11 17.29 4.30 12.55 1
683.16 -19.46 4.42 -12.55 -1
731.71 -17.02 4.53 -12.55 -1
784.07 14.89 4.64 12.55 1
840.58 16.76 4.76 12.56 1
901.63 18.87 4.87 12.56 1
967.64 -21.25 4.99 -12.56 -1
1039.06 -18.58 5.10 -12.57 -1
2.0190978296x^2 + 819.0972526983x - 425.8577714792 180.00

16
160.00
f(x) = 0.0205523072x^6 - 0.7639723177x^5 + 10.8846583352x^4 - 74.2415821392x^
155.086
R = 0.9371188234 150.255
140.00 137.799 135.625 133.492
108.798
120.00 122.441 118.603
98.180
108.798
100.00
Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
b)
60.00
R = 0.9371188234
140.00 137.799 135.625 133.492
108.798
120.00 122.441 118.603
98.180
108.798
100.00
Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
b)
60.00
Polynomial
(precio(CtvsU$ 40.00
/lb))
20.00
0.00
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
4 2015
Ao
P/P
(%)
-
137.013
-1.000
-42.182
-11.743
30.815
1.350
-11.207
-1.924
13.306
10.815
co con relacion
c + 35.2435 b
c + 501.7104 b
1.24 125.24263
8.16 909.24898
10 d + 55.0000 e
55.0000 d + 385.0000 e
= 0.13 35.243457
= 2.83 204.22836
ZINC (2015-2025)
176.247
4537459047x^4
40 - 84.937450796x^3 + 281.9796382752x^2 - 404.4860474207x + 305.6908763869
153.961 150.460
137.184 134.677
128.211
117.969
Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
Polynomial
(Precio(CtvsU$/lb))
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Ao
O/O P/P
(%) (%)
- -
4.851 137.013
-1.207 -1.000
4.918 -42.182
4.305 -11.743
5.173 30.815
-4.162 1.350
14.191 -11.207
1.832 -1.924
-3.887 13.306
8.478 10.815
elacion precio historico con relacion
10 c + 34.4906 b
34.4906 c + 403.5198 b
= 0.0249 125.24263
= 12.44 439.05623
= 10 d + 55.0000 e
= 55.0000 d + 385.0000 e
e = 0.11 34.490555
d = 2.82 199.08447
169.126
+ 10.8846583352x^4 - 74.2415821392x^3 + 246.3150047619x^2 - 352.0739978484x + 279.5574989699
5.086
150.255 147.880
135.625 133.492
129.298
118.603
precio(ctvsU$/lb)
147.880
135.625 133.492
129.298
118.603
precio(ctvsU$/lb)
Polynomial
(precio(ctvsU$/lb))
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Ao
PROGNOSIS DEL PREC
a) PLATA
AO PRECIO ($/Oz) DEMANDA OFERTA
2005 7.34 889800.00 889800.00

2006 11.57 874100.00 874100.00
2007 13.42 951700.00 951700.00
2008 15.01 926000.00 926000.00
2009 14.68 913000.00 913000.00
2010 20.19 914300.00 914300.00
2011 35.17 929100.00 929100.00
2012 31.17 1074700.00 1074700.00
2013 23.86 1040600.00 1040600.00
2014 19.08 1048300.00 1048300.00
2015 16.34 1054300.00 1054300.00
AO DEMANDA PRECIO
TM10*3 (Ctvs.U$/lb)
2005 889800.00 7.340
2006 874100.00 11.570
2007 951700.00 13.415
2008 926000.00 15.008
2009 913000.00 14.680
2010 914300.00 20.185
2011 929100.00 35.174
2012 1074700.00 31.170
2013 1040600.00 23.860
2014 1048300.00 19.080
2015 1054300.00 16.344
P / P = ||c + b (D/D)|| --
P / P = cN + b D/D --------
(P / P)(D/D) = c( D/D)
CUADRO N.- 002
--------- (3)
2006 57.629 -1.764 -101.6838 3.1133

2007 15.947 8.878 141.5746 78.8136
2008 11.877 -2.700 -32.0741 7.2923
2009 -2.188 -1.404 3.0724 1.9709
2010 37.502 0.142 5.3398 0.0203
2011 74.253 1.619 120.1956 2.6203
2012 -11.382 15.671 -178.3718 245.5827
2013 -23.452 -3.173 74.4128 10.0678
2014 -20.034 0.740 -14.8240 0.5475
2015 -14.340 0.572 -8.2074 0.3276
125.8134 18.5805 9.4343 350.3563
P / P = ||-4.12 + 3.51 (D/D)|| ----
D/D = d + (e) (t) ---------------------------------
D / D = dN + e t--------------------
(D/D)(t) = d( t) + e (t)2
------------------------------- (7)
CUADRO N.- 003
2006 1 -1.764 -1.7644 1

2007 2 8.878 17.7554 4
2008 3 -2.700 -8.1013 9
2009 4 -1.404 -5.6156 16
2010 5 0.142 0.7119 25
2011 6 1.619 9.7123 36
2012 7 15.671 109.6976 49
2013 8 -3.173 -25.3838 64
2014 9 0.740 6.6596 81
2015 10 0.572 5.7236 100
55.0000 18.5805 109.3953 385.0000
D / D = 4.73 + (0.03)x t
CUADRO N.- 004

CUADRO N.- 004

2015 1054300.00 16.34 6000.00
2016 1078951.95 18.345 24651.95
2017 1105122.30 20.579 26170.35
2018 1132892.26 23.072 27769.96
2019 1162349.11 20.291 29456.85
2020 1193586.68 17.857 31237.57
2021 1226705.82 19.988 33119.14
2022 1261814.92 22.360 35109.10
2023 1299030.50 25.000 37215.58
2024 1338477.84 22.064 39447.34
2025 1380291.63 19.486 41813.79
PLATA (2005-2015)
40.000
35.000 35.174
f(x) = 0.0018121589x^6 31.170

- 0.04630705x^5 + 0.3448713634x^4 - 0.1632288547x^3 - 6.7001632958x^2 + 22.9338841031x -
30.000
R = 0.9137659782
25.000
23.860
20.000 20.185
Precio(Ctvs.U$/lb)
16.344
15.000 15.008 14.680
11.570 13.415 Polynomial
10.000
7.340
5.000
0.000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ao

AO OFERTA PRECIO
TM10*3 (Ctvs.U$/lb)
2005 889800.00 7.340
2006 874100.00 11.570
2007 951700.00 13.415
2008 926000.00 15.008
2009 913000.00 14.680
2010 914300.00 20.185
2011 929100.00 35.174
2012 1074700.00 31.170
2013 1040600.00 23.860
2014 1048300.00 19.080
2015 1054300.00 16.344

P / P = cN + b
(P / P)(O/O)
CUADRO N.- 002
--------- (3)
2006 57.629 -1.764 -101.6838

2007 15.947 8.878 141.5746
2008 11.877 -2.700 -32.0741
2009 -2.188 -1.404 3.0724
2010 37.502 0.142 5.3398
2011 74.253 1.619 120.1956
2012 -11.382 15.671 -178.3718
2013 -23.452 -3.173 74.4128
2014 -20.034 0.740 -14.8240
2015 -14.340 0.572 -8.2074
125.8134 18.5805 9.4343
P / P = ||-6.29 + 4.0359

O/O = d + (e) (t) -----------------
O / O = dN + e t-----
(O/O)(t) = d( t)
-------------------------------
CUADRO N.- 003

AO t O/O (O/O)x t
2006 1 -1.764 -1.7644

2007 2 8.878 17.7554
2008 3 -2.700 -8.1013
2009 4 -1.404 -5.6156
2010 5 0.142 0.7119
2011 6 1.619 9.7123
2012 7 15.671 109.6976
2013 8 -3.173 -25.3838
2014 9 0.740 6.6596
2015 10 0.572 5.7236
55.0000 18.5805 109.3953
CUADRO N.- 004

AO OFERTA PRECIO
Dx103 (Ctvs.U$/lb)
2015 1054300.00 16.34
2016 1078951.95 18.345
2017 1105122.30 20.579
2018 1132892.26 23.072
2019 1162349.11 20.291
2020 1193586.68 17.857
2021 1226705.82 19.988
2022 1261814.92 22.360
2023 1299030.50 25.000
2024 1338477.84 22.064
2025 1380291.63 19.486
40.000
35.000 35.174
f(x) = 0.0018121589x^6 31.170

- 0.04630705x^5 + 0.3448713634x^4 - 0.1632288547x^3 - 6.7001632958x^2 + 22.9338841031x - 9.3
30.000
R = 0.9137659782
25.000
23.860
20.000 20.185
15.008 16.344precio(CtvsU$/l
15.000 13.415 14.680 b)
11.570
f(x) = 0.0018121589x^6 31.170
- 0.04630705x^5 + 0.3448713634x^4 - 0.1632288547x^3 - 6.7001632958x^2 + 22.9338841031x - 9.3
30.000
R = 0.9137659782
25.000
23.860
20.000 20.185
15.008 16.344precio(CtvsU$/l
15.000 13.415 14.680 b)
11.570
Polynomial
10.000
7.340 (precio(CtvsU$
/lb))
5.000
0.000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ao
LA DEMANDA
CUADRO N.- 001
2005 889800.00 7.340 - - -
2006 874100.00 11.570 -15700.00 4.23 -1.764
2007 951700.00 13.415 77600.00 1.85 8.878
2008 926000.00 15.008 -25700.00 1.59 -2.700
2009 913000.00 14.680 -13000.00 -0.33 -1.404
2010 914300.00 20.185 1300.00 5.51 0.142
2011 929100.00 35.174 14800.00 14.99 1.619
2012 1074700.00 31.170 145600.00 -4.00 15.671
2013 1040600.00 23.860 -34100.00 -7.31 -3.173
2014 1048300.00 19.080 7700.00 -4.78 0.740
2015 1054300.00 16.344 6000.00 -2.74 0.572
P = ||c + b (D/D)|| ------------------------------- (1)
cN + b D/D ----------------------------------- (2)
)(D/D) = c( D/D) + b (D/D)2

3)
Sustituyendo en las
ecuaciones 2 y 3 125.8134 = 10
9.4343 = 18.5805
b =
c =
2 + 3.51 (D/D)|| ------------------------------- (4)

----------------------------------- (5)
+ e t----------------------------------- (6)
= d( t) + e (t)2
------------- (7)
AO t D/D
Futura
2012 11 2.34
2013 12 2.43 18.5805 =
2014 13 2.51
2015 14 2.60 109.3953 =
2016 15 2.69
2017 16 2.77
2018 17 2.86
2019 18 2.95 e
2020 19 3.04
2021 20 3.12 d
D / D = 4.73 + (0.03)x t ------------------------------- (5)

P.(Ctvs.U$/lb) (%) (%)
-2.74 0.57 -14.34 -1
2.00 2.34 12.24 1
2.23 2.43 12.18 1
2.49 2.51 12.12 1
-2.78 2.60 -12.05 -1
-2.43 2.69 -11.99 -1
2.13 2.77 11.93 1
2.37 2.86 11.87 1
2.64 2.95 11.81 1
-2.94 3.04 -11.74 -1
-2.58 3.12 -11.68 -1
PLATA (2015-202
30.00
25.00 25.000
- 6.7001632958x^2 + 22.9338841031x - 9.3066904033
f(x) = 0.0029210608x^6 - 0.1085827816x^5
23.072+ 1.5471469196x^4 - 10.5531753768x^3
22.360
R = 0.9384405199
20.00 20.579 20.291 19.988
18.345 17.857
16.344
80 15.00
Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
Precio(Ctvs.U$/lb)
16.344
Polynomial 10.00
5.00
0.00
2015 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20
Ao
PLATA CON LA OFERTA

CUADRO N.- 001
2005 889800.00 7.340 - -

2006 874100.00 11.570 -15700.00 4.23
2007 951700.00 13.415 77600.00 1.85
2008 926000.00 15.008 -25700.00 1.59
2009 913000.00 14.680 -13000.00 -0.33
2010 914300.00 20.185 1300.00 5.51
2011 929100.00 35.174 14800.00 14.99
2012 1074700.00 31.170 145600.00 -4.00
2013 1040600.00 23.860 -34100.00 -7.31
2014 1048300.00 19.080 7700.00 -4.78
2015 1054300.00 16.344 6000.00 -2.74
P / P = ||c + b (O/O)|| ------------------------------- (1)
dos, tenemos :
P / P = cN + b O/O ----------------------------------- (2)
(P / P)(O/O) = c( O/O) + b (O/O)2

--------- (3)
(O/O)2
3.1133
Sustituyendo en las
78.8136 ecuaciones 2 y 3 125.8134 =
7.2923
1.9709 9.4343 =
0.0203
2.6203
245.5827
10.0678 b
0.5475
0.3276 c
350.3563
inada por:
P / P = ||-6.29 + 4.0359 (O/O)|| ------------------------------- (4)
+ (e) (t) ---------------------------------------- (5)
ados, tenemos :
O / O = dN + e t----------------------------------- (6)
(O/O)(t) = d( t) + e (t)2
------------------------------ (7)
t2 AO t O/O
Futura
1 2013 11 2.34
4 2014 12 2.43 18.5805
9 2015 13 2.51
16 2016 14 2.60 109.3953
25 2017 15 2.69
36 2018 16 2.77
49 2019 17 2.86
64 2020 18 2.95
81 2021 19 3.04
100 2022 20 3.12
385.0000
ada por:
O / O = 5.18 + (-0.07)x t ------------------------------- (5)
CUADRO N.- 004

D x 103 P.(Ctvs.U$/lb) (%) (%)
6000.00 -2.74 0.57 -14.34 -1
24651.95 2.00 2.34 12.24 1
26170.35 2.23 2.43 12.18 1
27769.96 2.49 2.51 12.12 1
29456.85 -2.78 2.60 -12.05 -1
31237.57 -2.43 2.69 -11.99 -1
33119.14 2.13 2.77 11.93 1
35109.10 2.37 2.86 11.87 1
37215.58 2.64 2.95 11.81 1
39447.34 -2.94 3.04 -11.74 -1
41813.79 -2.58 3.12 -11.68 -1
30.00
25.00
7001632958x^2 + 22.9338841031x - 9.3066904033
f(x) = 0.0029210608x^6 - 0.1085827816x^5 + 1.5471469196x^4 - 10.5531753768
23.072
22.360
R = 0.9384405199
20.00 20.579 20.291 19.988
23.860 18.345 17.857
16.344
19.080 15.00
Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
16.344precio(CtvsU$/l
b)
10.00
7001632958x^2 + 22.9338841031x - 9.3066904033
f(x) = 0.0029210608x^6 - 0.1085827816x^5 + 1.5471469196x^4 - 10.5531753768
23.072
22.360
R = 0.9384405199
20.00 20.579 20.291 19.988
23.860 18.345 17.857
16.344
19.080 15.00
Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
16.344precio(CtvsU$/l
b)
10.00
Polynomial
(precio(CtvsU$
/lb)) 5.00
0.00
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20
13 2014 2015
Ao
P/P
(%)
-
57.629
15.947
11.877
-2.188
37.502
74.253
-11.382
-23.452
-20.034
-14.340
co con relacion
c + 18.5805 b
c + 350.3563 b
-0.71 125.81341
13.90 9.4342867
10 d + 55.0000 e
55.0000 d + 385.0000 e
= 0.09 18.580469
= 1.38 109.39531
PLATA (2015-2025)
25.000
1.5471469196x^4 - 10.5531753768x^3 + 35.0028643093x^2 - 49.9486762591x + 40.5281572766
22.360 22.064
20.291 19.988 19.486
17.857
Precio(CtvsU$/lb)
Polynomial
(Precio(CtvsU$/lb))
9 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Ao
O/O P/P
(%) (%)
- -
-1.764 57.629
8.878 15.947
-2.700 11.877
-1.404 -2.188
0.142 37.502
1.619 74.253
15.671 -11.382
-3.173 -23.452
0.740 -20.034
0.572 -14.340
elacion precio historico con relacion
10 c + 18.5805 b
18.5805 c + 350.3563 b
= -0.7103 125.81341
= 13.90 9.4342867
= 10 d + 55.0000 e
= 55.0000 d + 385.0000 e
e = 0.09 18.580469
d = 1.38 109.39531
25.000
5 + 1.5471469196x^4
23.072 - 10.5531753768x^3 + 35.0028643093x^2 - 49.9486762591x + 40.5281572766
22.360 22.064
20.291 19.988 19.486
17.857
precio(ctvsU$/lb)
5 + 1.5471469196x^4 - 10.5531753768x^3 + 35.0028643093x^2 - 49.9486762591x + 40.5281572766
23.072
22.360 22.064
20.291 19.988 19.486
17.857
precio(ctvsU$/lb)
Polynomial
(precio(ctvsU$/lb))
8 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Ao
PROGNOSIS DEL PREC
a) PLATA
PRECIO
AO DEMANDA OFERTA
(US$/Oz)
1995 5.190 629072.52 790750.222
1996 5.180 691664.46 770614.906
1997 4.890 749172.75 809465.616
1998 5.540 791867.67 820430.720
1999 5.250 835805.83 861782.146
2000 5.000 875401.66 897346.358
2001 4.390 888184.14 878261.508
2002 4.630 847813.54 922375.579
2003 4.910 861800.65 952927.329
2004 6.690 868300.00 868300.000
2005 7.340 889800.00 889800.000
AO DEMANDA PRECIO
TM10*3 (US$/Oz)
1995 629072.52 5.190
1996 691664.46 5.180
1997 749172.75 4.890
1998 791867.67 5.540
1999 835805.83 5.250
2000 875401.66 5.000
2001 888184.14 4.390
2002 847813.54 4.630
2003 861800.65 4.910
2004 868300.00 6.690
2005 889800.00 7.340

P / P = ||c + b (D/D)|| --
P / P = cN + b D/D --------
(P / P)(D/D) = c( D/D)
CUADRO N.- 002
--------- (3)
1996 -0.193 9.950 -1.9171 99.0000

1997 -5.598 8.314 -46.5482 69.1305
1998 13.292 5.699 75.7528 32.4779
1999 -5.235 5.549 -29.0454 30.7878
2000 -4.762 4.737 -22.5593 22.4434
2001 -12.200 1.460 -17.8143 2.1321
2002 5.467 -4.545 -24.8490 20.6597
2003 6.048 1.650 9.9771 2.7218
2004 36.253 0.754 27.3402 0.5688
2005 9.716 2.476 24.0578 6.1311
42.7878 36.0444 -5.6054 286.0532
P / P = ||6.76 + (-0.98) (D/D)|| ---
D/D = d + (e) (t) ---------------------------------
D / D = dN + e t--------------------
(D/D)(t) = d( t) + e (t)2
------------------------------- (7)
CUADRO N.- 003
1996 1 9.950 9.9499 1

1997 2 8.314 16.6290 4
1998 3 5.699 17.0968 9
1999 4 5.549 22.1947 16
2000 5 4.737 23.6872 25
2001 6 1.460 8.7611 36
2002 7 -4.545 -31.8171 49
2003 8 1.650 13.1983 64
2004 9 0.754 6.7874 81
2005 10 2.476 24.7610 100
55.0000 36.0444 111.2484 385.0000
D / D = 9.04+ (-0.97)x t
CUADRO N.- 004

Dx103 (US$/Oz) D x 103
2005 868300.00 6.69 6499.35
2006 849238.47 7.373 -19061.53
2007 821640.25 8.206 -27598.23
2008 786274.77 9.222 -35365.48
2009 744140.31 7.981 -42134.46
2010 696416.82 9.141 -47723.48
2011 644410.30 10.568 -52006.52
2012 589492.24 12.332 -54918.07
2013 533038.26 14.524 -56453.98
2014 476369.87 11.786 -56668.39
2015 420702.74 9.437 -55667.14
PLATA (1995-2005)
8.000
f(x) = - 0.0003853758x^6
7.000 + 0.0123174397x^5 - 0.145846688x^4 + 0.7972301265x^3 - 2.0588214121x^2 + 2.3075807761x + 4.2
R = 0.9688493727
6.000
5.000
4.000
Precio(US$/OZ)
PRECIO
3.000
2.000
1.000
0.000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ao

AO OFERTA PRECIO
TM10*3 (US$/Oz)
1995 790750.22 5.190
1996 770614.91 5.180
1997 809465.62 4.890
1998 820430.72 5.540
1999 861782.15 5.250
2000 897346.36 5.000
2001 878261.51 4.390
2002 922375.58 4.630
2003 952927.33 4.910
2004 868300.00 6.690
2005 889800.00 7.340

P / P = cN + b
(P / P)(O/O)
CUADRO N.- 002
--------- (3)
1996 -0.193 -2.546 0.4906

1997 -5.598 5.042 -28.2247
1998 13.292 1.355 18.0061
1999 -5.235 5.040 -26.3838
2000 -4.762 4.127 -19.6515
2001 -12.200 -2.127 25.9471
2002 5.467 5.023 27.4600
2003 6.048 3.312 20.0311
2004 36.253 -8.881 -321.9507
2005 9.716 2.476 24.0578
42.7878 12.8205 -280.2181
P / P = ||5.29 + (-1.86) (

O/O = d + (e) (t) -----------------
O / O = dN + e t-----
(O/O)(t) = d( t)
-------------------------------
CUADRO N.- 003

AO t O/O (O/O)x t
1996 1 -2.546 -2.5464

1997 2 5.042 10.0830
1998 3 1.355 4.0638
1999 4 5.040 20.1608
2000 5 4.127 20.6341
2001 6 -2.127 -12.7609
2002 7 5.023 35.1602
2003 8 3.312 26.4983
2004 9 -8.881 -79.9270
2005 10 2.476 24.7610
55.0000 12.8205 46.1272
CUADRO N.- 004

AO OFERTA PRECIO
Dx103 (US$/Oz)
2005 889800.00 7.34
2006 886742.16 7.870
2007 881073.77 8.480
2008 872837.31 9.182
2009 862097.90 8.372
2010 848942.41 9.155
2011 833478.34 10.060
2012 815832.34 11.109
2013 796148.48 12.326
2014 774586.26 10.910
2015 751318.47 9.598
8.000
f(x) = - 0.0003853758x^6
7.000+ 0.0123174397x^5 - 0.145846688x^4 + 0.7972301265x^3 - 2.0588214121x^2 + 2.3075807761x + 4.
R = 0.9688493727
6.000
5.000
PRECIO
3.000 Polynomial (PRECIO)
2.000
1.000
PRECIO
3.000 Polynomial (PRECIO)
2.000
1.000
0.000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ao
COMPARACION DE DATOS CALCULA
2005
Valor calculado 7.02
US$/Oz
Valor real 7.34
Diferencia US$/Oz 0.33

PRECIO
AO
(US$/Oz)
2005 7.340
2006 11.570
2007 13.420
2008 15.010
2009 14.680
2010 20.190
2011 35.170
2012 31.170
2013 23.860
2014 19.080
2015 16.344
LA DEMANDA
CUADRO N.- 001
TM10*3 (US$/Oz) D x 103 P. (%)
1995 629072.52 5.190 - - -
1996 691664.46 5.180 62591.94 -0.01 9.950
1997 749172.75 4.890 57508.29 -0.29 8.314
1998 791867.67 5.540 42694.92 0.65 5.699
1999 835805.83 5.250 43938.17 -0.29 5.549
2000 875401.66 5.000 39595.83 -0.25 4.737
2001 888184.14 4.390 12782.48 -0.61 1.460
2002 847813.54 4.630 -40370.60 0.24 -4.545
2003 861800.65 4.910 13987.11 0.28 1.650
2004 868300.00 6.690 6499.35 1.78 0.754
1995 889800.00 7.340 21500.00 0.65 2.476
P = ||c + b (D/D)|| ------------------------------- (1)
cN + b D/D ----------------------------------- (2)
)(D/D) = c( D/D) + b (D/D)2

3)
Sustituyendo en las
ecuaciones 2 y 3 42.7878 = 10
-5.6054 = 36.0444
b =
c =
+ (-0.98) (D/D)|| ------------------------------- (4)

----------------------------------- (5)
+ e t----------------------------------- (6)
= d( t) + e (t)2
------------- (7)
AO t D/D
Futura
2012 11 -2.20
2013 12 -3.25 36.0444 =
2014 13 -4.30
2015 14 -5.36 111.2484 =
2016 15 -6.41
2017 16 -7.47
2018 17 -8.52
2019 18 -9.58 e
2020 19 -10.63
2021 20 -11.69 d
D / D = 9.04+ (-0.97)x t ------------------------------- (5)

P (%) (%)
1.78 2.48 9.72 1
0.68 -2.20 10.22 1
0.83 -3.25 11.30 1
1.02 -4.30 12.37 1
-1.24 -5.36 -13.45 -1
1.16 -6.41 14.53 1
1.43 -7.47 15.61 1
1.76 -8.52 16.69 1
2.19 -9.58 17.77 1
-2.74 -10.63 -18.85 -1
-2.35 -11.69 -19.93 -1
PLATA (2005-2015
16.00
2.0588214121x^2 + 2.3075807761x + 4.2932727273 14.00

f(x) = 0.0013819077x^6 - 0.0500310079x^5 + 0.6888442213x^4 - 4.5190660104x^3 +
R = 0.9713506146 12.00
10.00
Precio(US$/OZ) 8.00
PRECIO
6.00
4.00
2.00
3 2004 2005 0.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201
Ao
PLATA CON LA OFERTA

CUADRO N.- 001
CUADRO N.- 001
TM10*3 (US$/Oz) O x 103 P.
1995 790750.22 5.190 - -
1996 770614.91 5.180 -20135.32 -0.01
1997 809465.62 4.890 38850.71 -0.29
1998 820430.72 5.540 10965.10 0.65
1999 861782.15 5.250 41351.43 -0.29
2000 897346.36 5.000 35564.21 -0.25
2001 878261.51 4.390 -19084.85 -0.61
2002 922375.58 4.630 44114.07 0.24
2003 952927.33 4.910 30551.75 0.28
2004 868300.00 6.690 -84627.33 1.78
2005 889800.00 7.340 21500.00 0.65
P / P = ||c + b (O/O)|| ------------------------------- (1)
dos, tenemos :
P / P = cN + b O/O ----------------------------------- (2)
(P / P)(O/O) = c( O/O) + b (O/O)2

--------- (3)
(O/O)2
6.4839
Sustituyendo en las
25.4169 ecuaciones 2 y 3 42.7878 =
1.8350
25.4037 -280.2181 =
17.0307
4.5233
25.2294
10.9713 b
78.8682
6.1311 c
201.8934
inada por:
P / P = ||5.29 + (-1.86) (O/O)|| ------------------------------- (4)
+ (e) (t) ---------------------------------------- (5)
ados, tenemos :
O / O = dN + e t----------------------------------- (6)
(O/O)(t) = d( t) + e (t)2
------------------------------ (7)
t2 AO t O/O
Futura
1 2012 11 -0.34
4 2013 12 -0.64 12.8205
9 2014 13 -0.93
16 2015 14 -1.23 46.1272
25 2016 15 -1.53
36 2017 16 -1.82
49 2018 17 -2.12
64 2019 18 -2.41
81 2020 19 -2.71
100 2021 20 -3.00
385.0000
ada por:
O / O = 3.20 + (-0.37)x t ------------------------------- (5)
CUADRO N.- 004

D x 103 P.(US$/Oz) (%) (%)
21500.00 0.65 2.48 9.72 1
-3057.84 0.53 -0.34 7.22 1
-5668.39 0.61 -0.64 7.75 1
-8236.46 0.70 -0.93 8.28 1
-10739.42 -0.81 -1.23 -8.82 -1
-13155.49 0.78 -1.53 9.35 1
-15464.07 0.91 -1.82 9.89 1
-17646.00 1.05 -2.12 10.42 1
-19683.86 1.22 -2.41 10.95 1
-21562.22 -1.42 -2.71 -11.49 -1
-23267.79 -1.31 -3.00 -12.02 -1
14.00
2.0588214121x^2 + 2.3075807761x + 4.2932727273

12.00
f(x) = 0.0008094568x^6 - 0.0292770523x^5 + 0.4026515489x^4 - 2.6364457008x^3
R = 0.9773203032
10.00
8.00
Precio(US$/OZ)
PRECIO
6.00
Polynomial (PRECIO)
4.00
2.00
8.00
Precio(US$/OZ)
PRECIO
6.00
Polynomial (PRECIO)
4.00
2.00
0.00
004 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ao
OS CALCULADOS CON LOS DATOS REALES
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
7.62 8.34 9.20 8.18 9.15 10.31
11.57 13.42 15.01 14.68 20.19 35.17
3.95 5.07 5.81 6.50 11.04 24.86

P/P
(%)
-
-0.193
-5.598
13.292
-5.235
-4.762
-12.200
5.467
6.048
36.253
9.716
orico con relacion

orico con relacion
c + 36.0444 b
c + 286.0532 b
-1.02 42.787764
7.97 -5.6053703
10 d + 55.0000 e
55.0000 d + 385.0000 e
= -1.05 36.044351
= 9.40 111.24836
PLATA (2005-2015)
+ 0.6888442213x^4 - 4.5190660104x^3 + 14.5089877466x^2 - 20.3398311933x + 16.4426551
PRECIO
Polynomial (PRECIO)
008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ao
O/O P/P
(%) (%)
- -
-2.546 -0.193
5.042 -5.598
1.355 13.292
5.040 -5.235
4.127 -4.762
-2.127 -12.200
5.023 5.467
3.312 6.048
-8.881 36.253
2.476 9.716
a relacion precio historico con relacion
10 c + 12.8205 b
12.8205 c + 201.8934 b
= -1.81 42.787764
= 6.60 -280.21806
= 10 d + 55.0000 e
= 55.0000 d + 385.0000 e
e = -0.30 12.820499
d = 2.91 46.127174
x^5 + 0.4026515489x^4 - 2.6364457008x^3 + 8.4244755291x^2 - 11.6004656602x + 12.7981920154
PRECIO
PRECIO
008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ao
OS REALES
2012 2013 2014 2015
11.72 13.42 11.35 9.52
31.17 23.86 19.08 16.34
19.45 10.44 7.73 6.83

Examen Parcial Lincuna

Transféré par

Informations du document

Titre original

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Examen Parcial Lincuna

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

PROGNOSIS DEL PREC

1. PRECIO - DEMANDA - OFERTA............. PLATA:

2. PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DE LA PLATA CON LA DEMANDA

Si analizamos la variacion de la regresion porcentual del precio frente a la variacion porcentu

Aplicando la ley de minimos cuadrados, tenemos :

AO P/P D/D (P/P)(D/D) (D/D)2

1995 -1.705 3.438 -5.8610 11.8228

31.3672 37.0067 -35.5241 291.7449

Luego la ecuacion 1 queda determinada por:

P / P = ||6.76 + (-0.98) (D/D)|| ---

D/D = d + (e) (t) ---------------------------------

Aplicando la ley de minimos cuadrados, tenemos :

1995 1 3.438 3.4384 1

55.0000 37.0067 123.4940 385.0000

Luego la ecuacion 5 queda determinada por:

AO DEMANDA PRECIO VARIA. D

3. PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DE LA PLATA CON LA OFERTA

Si analizamos la variacion de la regresion porcentual del precio frent

Aplicando la ley de minimos cuadrados, tenemos :

1992 -1.705 1.217 -2.0750

31.3672 11.5617 -306.3508

Luego la ecuacion 1 queda determinada por:

Asumimos que la serie estadistica de precios para calcular la oferta futu

O/O = d + (e) (t) -----------------

Aplicando la ley de minimos cuadrados, tenemos :

CUADRO N.- 003

1992 1 1.217 1.2173

55.0000 11.5617 32.9278

Luego la ecuacion 5 queda determinada por:

CUADRO N.- 004

COMPARACION DE DATOS CALCULA

Valor calculado 6.69

Diferencia US$/Oz 0.00

P = ||c + b (D/D)|| ------------------------------- (1)

cN + b D/D ----------------------------------- (2)

)(D/D) = c( D/D) + b (D/D)2

+ (-0.98) (D/D)|| ------------------------------- (4)

r la demanda futura del plomo, para lo cual concideramos

D / D = 9.04+ (-0.97)x t ------------------------------- (5)

2002 2003 2004 0.00

PLATA CON LA OFERTA

P / P = ||c + b (O/O)|| ------------------------------- (1)

P / P = cN + b O/O ----------------------------------- (2)

(P / P)(O/O) = c( O/O) + b (O/O)2

P / P = ||5.29 + (-1.86) (O/O)|| ------------------------------- (4)

+ (e) (t) ---------------------------------------- (5)

O / O = 3.20 + (-0.37)x t ------------------------------- (5)

CUADRO N.- 004

f(x) = 0.0007797384x^6 - 0.0282127653x^5 + 0.3880777834x^4 - 2.5415858445x^3

OS CALCULADOS CON LOS DATOS REALES

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

7.20 7.81 8.54 7.67 8.51 9.52

7.34 11.57 13.42 15.01 14.68 20.19

0.14 3.76 4.88 7.34 6.17 10.67

0.5311696761x^4 - 3.4819985895x^3 + 11.1643160153x^2 - 15.5907501173x + 14.1361555611

07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

a relacion precio historico con relacion

x^5 + 0.3880777834x^4 - 2.5415858445x^3 + 8.1311368691x^2 - 11.2637191232x + 12.0241527779

007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2011 2012 2013 2014

10.72 12.17 10.42 8.85

35.17 31.17 23.86 19.08

24.45 19.00 13.44 10.23