Phelon 1

Kelsey Phelon

Mr. Conway

Diverse Learners

9 March 2016

Predicting the Academy Award for Best Picture

Avirgan, J. (2016, February 26). Can math predict the Oscars? A debate. FiveThirtyEight.

Retrieved from https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-math-predict-the-oscars-a-debate/

This article is good as it gets to the question of can one predict the Oscars if it is based on
7,000 humans voting? It compares it to politics and how some states do not really matter
still vote and get engaged in elections to feel like theyre a part of it. They also mentioned
the lack of diversity and women in Oscar films and mentioned data that proved how it
was insufficient. They also spoke about Best Picture specifically which will be vital to
answering the essential question. It noted how it is instant recall voting and ballots rank
films and the first to break a defined threshold wins. It also recognizes that people want
this to be used for political elections. It also covered the reasoning behind that specific
voting, it helps pick a consensus film that can be considered a classic. Then they had a
debate over whether or not math could predict the Oscars which will be good for writing
a cohesive paper and acknowledging a prevalent question.
B. K. Grant (Ed.). (2007). Academy Awards. Schirmer Encyclopedia of Film (Vol. 1, pp. 1-9).

New York: Schirmer Reference. Retrieved from http://go.galegroup.com/ps/i.do?

p=GVRL&sw=w&u=henrico&v=2.1&it=r&id=GALE

%7CCX2587600009&asid=f226dd855720bb027964b5198e4ebdad

This source is very informative of the basic Academy Awards facts. It covers the basics of
how one becomes a member and the history of the Academy. Then it covers the
nomination and voting process getting into the nitty-gritty with dates and how rules vary
by category. It also details the facts about the statuette and its history. Furthermore, it
details the different circumstances for additional categories and awards. There have been
honorary awards, scientific and technical awards, memorial awards, and special
achievement awards. The academy does not just put on an awards show; it has other
activities that it participates in to further its mission. This source is helpful for gaining a
basic understanding of the Academy Awards in terms of the history of the awards show.
Edelman, P. H. (2012). The institutional dimension of election design. Public Choice, 153(3-4),

287+. Retrieved from http://go.galegroup.com/ps/i.do?

 Phelon 2

p=GPS&sw=w&u=henrico&v=2.1&it=r&id=GALE

%7CA314730547&asid=648bd637f31f746ec7a58dd317bddfde

This article gave a good overview of basics and more specific details that bring a new
perspective to research. It touches on the nominating and winner selection processes of
the academy while also acknowledging the flaws of the AMPAS election design. It
discussed this idea of ideal election design and the conflicting interests of voters and the
institution facilitating the election. From there it explained the interests of the academy
and the perspectives of the voters (academy members) and how their interests dont align.
It also touched on the change in the best picture category that came in 2009 allowing 10
nominations rather than just 5 and the possible reasons why. What was really enjoyable
was how it touched on the darker side and how the academys goal of making money
with their television broadcast of the show is instrumental in their election design and one
of their main interests. Overall it is a great article that will help paint a more cohesive
picture of the academy awards and predicting best picture with its close consideration of
the election design.
Gehrlein, W. V., & Kher, H. V. (2004). Decision rules for the Academy Awards versus those for

elections. Interfaces, 34(3), 226+. Retrieved from http://go.galegroup.com/ps/i.do?

p=GPS&sw=w&u=henrico&v=2.1&it=r&id=GALE

%7CA119115263&asid=8061a7d290463df44e6325df7c5b121e

This article is good for at covering the basics to provide a better understanding the voting
process. It recognizes the significance of the academy awards in terms of monetary
earnings of actors and the film noting many receive big bucks when they are made into
DVDs or put on TV. This article does a good job at explaining the technical mechanics of
the nomination process, the preferential system and the single transferable vote. It goes
through an example and explains it in an understandable way illustrating the necessity of
first place votes and how it furthers the academys wish of having outstanding nominees
represented. While it lacks specific information in line with the essential question, it still
has good information regarding monetary earnings and the nomination process that will
help in the writing of the paper.
Kaplan, D. (2006). And the Oscar goes toa logistic regression model for predicting Academy

Award results. Journal Of Applied Economics & Policy, 25(1), 23. Retrieved from

http://kentuckyeconomicassociation.org/jaep/issues/jaep25_1_2006res.pdf#page=28

This article offers another method for predicting the award. It will be a good one to
include as it focused on the best picture category and considered a variety of independent
variables that are important to consider as one researches further. They cover the basic
elements like nominating process, but not in much detail. This study focused on films
from 1965 to 2004 and the three independent variables of personnel, genre, and
 Phelon 3

marketing. It then covers each of the variables and some examples of them. For one the
genre comedy is unlikely to win based on past shows and how many films use the fourth
quarter strategy to release films as late as possible. They also noted how previous
nominations and wins at the Oscars and other award show wins in the season are
indicative of the winner. The results were an R2 0.8373 which is quite good as it is close
to +1, but it does not equate to definite causation. It just shows their results exemplified a
strong correlation, therefore it will be a good model to mention in the paper.
Keegan, R., Poindexter, S., & Whipp, G. (2016, February 26). 91% white. 76% male. Changing

who votes on the Oscars won't be easy. LA Times. Retrieved from

http://graphics.latimes.com/oscars-2016-voters/

It is impossible to do this paper right without discussing the electorate of the academy.
The socio-demographics of that body with the recent allegations of racism and lack of
diversity are impossible to ignore. These are the people who pick best picture so it is
important to know a little more about them. This article does a great job of breaking the
demographics up by branch and comparing it to non-academy reports of demographics in
major studios. The academy overall is majorly white and majorly male. It also discussed
the academys reaction to the allegations and its plans to remedy the problem and
improve. When discussing the academys doubling by 2020 plan they also noted the
requirements and qualifications of some branches which might prove troublesome as they
are quiet specific and somewhat difficult. This is excellent information for the paper as it
will provide a more cohesive understanding of the academy.
Krauss, J., Nann, S., Simon, D., Gloor, P. A., & Fischbach, K. (2008, June). Predicting movie

success and Academy Awards through sentiment and social network analysis. ECIS 2008

Proceedings, 116, 2026-2037. Retrieved from

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/200038418

This article is in line with the research paper as it shows a successful Oscars prediction
technique. This article was easy to read though the mathematics go a little above ones
head. To summarize, this article recounted an experiment where researchers used
discussion patterns based on certain factors to predict Academy Awards. The researchers
based their data on the Intensity Index, Positivity Index, and Time Noise Factor. It
then shows how the data was successful in its predictions while noting the lack of
specificity in predicting certain categories. Their model was able to successfully indicate
nine Oscar films. The data indicated a top ten and nine of ten were either nominated or
won an award. This article illustrates the effectiveness of predicting based on IMBd
discussion boards while acknowledging the need to advance the model and the likely
elevated movie knowledge of discussion board participants which is important to note in
the paper.
 Phelon 4

Pardoe, I., & Simonton, D. K. (2008). Applying discrete choice models to predict Academy

Award winners. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society),

171(2), 375-394. Retrieved from

http://www.utstat.utoronto.ca/reid/sta442f/2010/pardoeJRSSA.pdf

This article is perfect for the research paper. While the article did have a lot of elevated
mathematic information, it also explained the information in an understandable manner.
They focused on four categories: Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress. The article
considered a range of variables like number of overall nominations, pervious nominations
for the individual, other award show wins, and age amongst others for all Oscars between
1938 and 2004. It did this for each of the four categories in a very accessible manner. The
study was able to determine which factors are the most indicative of results and those
which did not improve results. It indicated the Academy Awards, based on the discrete
choice modeling of this study, are reasonably predictable and have become more
predictable with time. This article will be very helpful in the research paper as it has a
bunch of important statistics and explains some important patterns amongst winners.
Stoppe, S. (2015). How predictable are the Academy Awards?. Working paper. Leipzig

University. Retrieved from

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sebastian_Stoppe/publication/273888617_How_Pre

dictable_are_the_Academy_Awards/links/550fe3d00cf2752610a169dd.pdf

Stoppe goes into excellent detail into the voting process. It explained how the categories
receive nominations and how then winners are decided noting how some members fail to
vote for every category. This article does a good job of covering the specifics such as the
gender and racial statistics of the voting body and the total number of members. It
composed a study to predict the awards show by surveying people that were members of
movie groups and forums by having them submit a survey similar to that of the Academy.
The results were fairly similar to the real results. And interestingly enough the make-up
of survey voters was similar to the Academys in the category of gender. As for the
results, the subjects had a 62.5% correct prediction percentage and they had been
instructed to vote for their favorite. The article essentially concluded that voting attitudes
of movie fans in forum and Academy members are somewhat similar. This article will be
good for covering the basics in the paper, while also providing an alternative prediction
model.
Thrower, E. (2017, January 25). How to predict the Oscars. Empire. Retrieved from

http://www.empireonline.com/movies/features/predict-oscars/

This article has very accessible language which made it a breeze to read. It was in line
with the essential question as it directly referenced the Best Picture category. The main
 Phelon 5

idea of the article was to offer twelve observations or patterns in Oscar wins. It provides
examples and statistics to back up its claims. For Best Picture it notes only four films
have won best picture without best director nominations, most best picture winners had a
screenplay nomination, how most also have had a SAG best ensemble nomination, the
unlikelihood of certain genres winning, what awards shows are good indicators, and of
course mentions the inevitability of upsets. It is definitely one article to use to answer the
essential question as it approaches the prediction process in a different way.
 Phelon 6

References

Avirgan, J. (2016, February 26). Can math predict the Oscars? A debate. FiveThirtyEight.

Retrieved from https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-math-predict-the-oscars-a-debate/

B. K. Grant (Ed.). (2007). Academy Awards. Schirmer Encyclopedia of Film (Vol. 1, pp. 1-9).

New York: Schirmer Reference. Retrieved from http://go.galegroup.com/ps/i.do?

p=GVRL&sw=w&u=henrico&v=2.1&it=r&id=GALE

%7CCX2587600009&asid=f226dd855720bb027964b5198e4ebdad

Edelman, P. H. (2012). The institutional dimension of election design. Public Choice, 153(3-4),

287+. Retrieved from http://go.galegroup.com/ps/i.do?

p=GPS&sw=w&u=henrico&v=2.1&it=r&id=GALE

%7CA314730547&asid=648bd637f31f746ec7a58dd317bddfde

Gehrlein, W. V., & Kher, H. V. (2004). Decision rules for the Academy Awards versus those for

elections. Interfaces, 34(3), 226+. Retrieved from http://go.galegroup.com/ps/i.do?

p=GPS&sw=w&u=henrico&v=2.1&it=r&id=GALE

%7CA119115263&asid=8061a7d290463df44e6325df7c5b121e

Kaplan, D. (2006). And the Oscar goes toa logistic regression model for predicting Academy

Award results. Journal Of Applied Economics & Policy, 25(1), 23. Retrieved from

http://kentuckyeconomicassociation.org/jaep/issues/jaep25_1_2006res.pdf#page=28

Keegan, R., Poindexter, S., & Whipp, G. (2016, February 26). 91% white. 76% male. Changing

who votes on the Oscars won't be easy. LA Times. Retrieved from

http://graphics.latimes.com/oscars-2016-voters/

Krauss, J., Nann, S., Simon, D., Gloor, P. A., & Fischbach, K. (2008, June). Predicting movie

success and Academy Awards through sentiment and social network analysis. ECIS 2008
 Phelon 7

Proceedings, 116, 2026-2037. Retrieved from

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/200038418

Pardoe, I., & Simonton, D. K. (2008). Applying discrete choice models to predict Academy

Award winners. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society),

171(2), 375-394. Retrieved from

http://www.utstat.utoronto.ca/reid/sta442f/2010/pardoeJRSSA.pdf

Stoppe, S. (2015). How predictable are the Academy Awards?. Working paper. Leipzig

University. Retrieved from

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sebastian_Stoppe/publication/273888617_How_Pre

dictable_are_the_Academy_Awards/links/550fe3d00cf2752610a169dd.pdf

Thrower, E. (2017, January 25). How to predict the Oscars. Empire. Retrieved from

http://www.empireonline.com/movies/features/predict-oscars/