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July 1, 2010
Executive Summary
What’s New: Nimin Energy recently secured long-term financing, completed its first well in
Wyoming’s oil-prone Bighorn Basin and saw an initial response from a cutting edge enhanced oil
recovery process in Southern California’s San Joaquin Basin.
Why It Matters: The company has an inventory of 88 undeveloped infill drilling locations in the
Bighorn that could drive annual production growth of more than 60% over the next three years.
Based on nearby analog fields, these wells are expected to generate exceptional returns at NYMEX oil
prices of $22/Bl or greater. Moreover, we believe management has an eye on additional under-
exploited fields in the area that could boost the company’s low-risk, oil focused drilling inventory.
In Kern County, California, one of four development wells at the Pleito Creek Field has begun to
respond from a Combined Miscible Drive (CMD) process, which could increase the field’s recovery
from 7% of original oil in place (OOIP) to 25% or more. More importantly, Nimin has identified 40
fields with 4 BBls of OOIP where this patent-pending process could be applicable.
Please see analyst In short, a drilling inventory with minimal geologic risk is poised to deliver robust near-term growth,
certification and other while a proprietary enhanced oil recovery technique holds long-term company making potential.
important disclosures Valuation: The stock is currently valued at what we view as an attractive 23% discount to our peer
starting on page 22 and group, based on price/total NAV and EV/2011E EBITDA. Notably, our NAV estimate of
continuing through page 24. $3.40/share includes only modest unproven resource for the company’s Bighorn Basin properties and
no value for the unproven resource in its CMD project.
Recommendation: We are initiating coverage of Nimin Energy with an Overweight rating and a 12-
month price target of $2.50.
Thomas Weisel Partners does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as
only a single factor in making their investment decision.
NIMIN ENERGY CORPORATION (NNN-T) Initiating Coverage
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Carpinteria, California-based Nimin Energy Corp. is a TSX listed company focused on the
acquisition and exploitation of under-developed oil properties in the United States. The
company’s principle assets are in Wyoming’s Bighorn Basin, California’s San Joaquin Basin and
onshore southern Louisiana (Figures 1 & 2).
7.24 $10
105
Source: Company reports and Thomas Weisel Partners LLC estimates
Company Description: NiMin Energy Corporation is an oil and gas company that is engaged in the acquisition and development of oil and gas properties
in the United States. Nimin has operated as an exploration and production company since late 2006 and has principal operations in the Bighorn Basin,
Wyoming, the San Joaquin Basin, California and South Louisiana onshore areas of the United States. Approximately 96% of Niman's 29 MMBOE proved
and probable reserves are oil in Wyoming and California.
July 1, 2010 Thomas Weisel Partners LLC
Page 2 of 25 Michael Scialla 720.479.2435
NIMIN ENERGY CORPORATION (NNN-T) Initiating Coverage
INVESTMENT OVERVIEW
We are initiating coverage of Nimin Energy with an Overweight rating and a 12-month price
target of $2.50.
80% 76%
70%
58%
60%
47%
50%
40%
4%
5%
30%
17% 21%
16%
20% 4%
1% 8%
10% 19% 6% 16%
6% 9%
0%
Ferguson Ranch Hunt Sheep point Willow Draw
Current TWP Est. NNN Est. Analog
Source: Company reports and Thomas Weisel Partners LLC estimates
Moreover, the same proprietary database with 40 critical parameters that led Nimin to its
privately negotiated acquisition of these four fields could spawn similar opportunities in the
Bighorn and elsewhere.
Long-Term Potential In Patent Pending EOR Process
Nimin could be on the verge of developing a technique to recover significant unrecovered oil
resource in Southern California’s prolific San Joaquin Basin. The company has identified 40
fields in the basin with 4 BBls of crude in place where the RF has been less than 7%.
Management believes its CMD process could boost recoveries to 25-60%. A pilot test at
Nimin’s Pleito Creek Field, which commenced last year, is showing early signs of responding
positively to the CMD flood.
PRIMARY RISKS
Liquidity
Following a recent long-term debt deal, which closed earlier this month, we estimate long-term
debt/2010E EBITDA of 9.6x, versus our peer group average of 1.8x. However, we expect this
ratio to decline to 1.8x next year as production ramps from development projects in Wyoming
and California.
COMPANY BACKGROUND
In January 2008, the company filed a patent application for its proprietary CMD enhanced oil
recovery (EOR) process. In June of that year, Legacy raised $19.5mn in a private placement of
3.9mn common shares at a price of $4.90 per share. Proceeds funded EOR development of
Pleito Creek and exploration drilling in Louisiana.
In September 2009, Nimin acquired Legacy by issuing 37.3mn shares to Legacy’s shareholders.
In connection with this reverse merger, the company completed a public offering consisting
of 11.3mn shares priced at $1.13 per share, after which the new company began trading on the
Toronto Stock Exchange.
In December 2009, Nimin purchased four producing oil fields located in Wyoming’s Bighorn
Basin for $27.3mn. These fields had net proved reserves of 8.9 MMBo and were producing 370
Bls/d of low-gravity crude at the time of the acquisition. The bulk of the acquisition ($22mn)
was funded by a bridge loan syndicated by Ionic Capital Corp.
On May 6, 2010, Nimin raised $11.5mn in an overnight marketed offering of 9.2mn common
shares priced at $1.25 per share. Proceeds will be used to partially fund the company’s 2010
capital expenditure program of $12mn, which includes the drilling of 12 wells in Wyoming and
one well at Pleito Creek Field.
The company recently completed a long-term financing whereby they entered into a $36mn
credit facility which carries a five year term and a 12.5% annual fixed interest rate. Nimin will
use the proceeds of this credit facility to retire its $23mn bridge loan and support the 2010 and
2011 capital budget.
MANAGEMENT
Nimin’s reserves assume that the drilling density for each of its four fields can be increased from
the current range of 25-108 acres/well to a level comparable to nearby fields, which are spaced
on 5-14 acres/well. Proved undeveloped reserves for each infill location were booked at 70% of
the historical average producer for each field, while probable infill locations were assigned 55%
of the average producer.
Geologic Setting
The Bighorn is a deep, intermontane basin in north central Wyoming and south central
Montana with sediments up to 20,000 feet thick. A prolific oil producer during the first half of
the last century, most of the Bighorn’s oil was discovered in large faulted anticlines near the
basin’s shallow margins. The primary reservoirs are the Permian-aged Phosphoria,
Pennsylvanian-aged Tensleep and Mississippian-aged Madison formations. Numerous fields in
this basin margin anticline play produce from multiple zones, which tend to have a single oil-
water contact (in some cases tilted) that can cut across formation boundaries.
The most prolific reservoirs are found in the massive (commonly 250 feet thick or more) sands
of the Tensleep. These sands, which may have originally covered more than 200,000 square
miles of the North American Cratonic Shelf, are equivalent to the Tensleep, Minnelusa,
Quadrant, Casper and Weber sands in several Rocky Mountain basins. The Tensleep grades
upward from a shallow marine to continental sandstone. The lower section consists of thin
sands and carbonates, while the upper member includes a thick, porous eolian (windblown)
sandstone and thin carbonates. Reservoir quality is good (best in the upper section) with
porosity and permeability typically in the ranges of 10- 20% and 50-250md, respectively.
Above the Tensleep, the organic-rich Phosphoria Formation was deposited in a shallow marine
environment. Limestones and dolomites in this formation are productive in numerous fields in
both the Bighorn and Wind River basins. The Phosphoria is also believed to be a source rock
for much of the Bighorn’s low-gravity oil reservoirs. These include the underlying Tensleep,
which was sourced from above via an extensive network of fractures.
Overlying the Phosphoria are siltstones and carbonates of the Dinwoody Formation, which was
deposited during early Triassic time. This formation is also productive in several fields on the
western side of the basin, including some of Nimin’s fields.
0.0 0
1Q95
1Q96
1Q97
1Q98
1Q99
1Q00
1Q01
1Q02
1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
Production Producing Wells
Source: Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission
120
Spring Creek
100 MRO: Infill
Bbls/d 80
60
40
20
0
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115
Month
Source: Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission
Nimin’s projections imply that a fully developed Ferguson Ranch will recover 40% of OOIP
(our assumptions are based on a RF of 36%), compared to Spring Creek, where the recovery
factor is expected to be 76%. Although OOIP estimates involve significant uncertainties and
the two fields are not perfectly analogous, this comparison suggests upside to Nimin’s estimates.
Moreover, the Tensleep’s permeability is greater at Ferguson Ranch than Spring Creek, which
supports a higher recovery factor for Nimin’s field in contrast to its lower projection.
The company recently drilled the State #11, its first of 12 planned wells in Ferguson Ranch this
year. Initial production was approximately 100 Bls/d, in line with our type curve.
300%
250%
200%
IRR
150%
100%
50%
0%
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Infrastructure/Marketing
The Bighorn is a mature province with significant infrastructure. Nimin currently sells its heavy
oil to Marathon at a price of approximately NYMEX less $10.60/Bl. Management believes this
differential could contract when TransCanada completes its Keystone Pipeline system, which is
designed to carry heavy Canadian crude oil from Alberta to refineries in the United States. Most
of Nimin’s production is trucked to its sales point.
Water Handling
Tensleep and Phosphoria wells fields produce copious amounts of water, so water handling,
including submersible pumps, contributes to the play’s operating costs of $13-14/Bl. Individual
wells commonly produce more than 5,000 Bls/d of fresh water that is typically discharged on
the surface in settlement ponds, where it evaporates, recedes to aquifers or is used by local
ranchers.
predominantly limited to infill wells. The technology applied to the basin’s shallow, heavy oil
reservoirs has tended to focus on enhanced oil recovery practices like waterfloods and cyclic
steamfloods. For more than a century, the basin has been dominated by major oil companies
that controlled large acreage blocks through mineral fee holdings.
Nimin’s predecessor, Legacy, has been active in the San Joaquin since 2006, when it acquired
PetroResource and an interest in Pleito Creek Field for $1.1mn. Net production at the time of
the purchase was a modest 30 Bbl/d.
Geologic Setting
The San Joaquin Basin lies in a 50-mile wide valley between the Temblor-Diablo and the Sierra
Nevada ranges in central California. It extends 250 miles from the southeast near Bakersfield to
the northwest near Stockton, where a broad east-west trending arch separates the basin from its
northern structural counterpart, the Sacramento Basin.
Several important geologic factors contribute to the prolific nature of the San Joaquin. Because
it was formed in an area of active tectonics and subsided rapidly, the basin collected more than
35,000 feet of sediment over a relatively short period of geologic time. Hydrocarbon generation
and migration occurred early in the life of the basin. The relatively young reservoir sands were
sourced by hydrocarbons early after their deposition, which preserved permeability and porosity
even at great depths.
The late Miocene to mid-Pleistocene orogenies (mountain building events) created most of the
anticlines and faults that trapped hydrocarbons between 2 MYA and 5 MYA. Hydrocarbons
were generated from the organic rich Monterey and Keyenhagen formations in the central
portion of the basin and migrated updip, where they were trapped in reservoirs such as Midway
Sunset, Elk Hills, North Kettelman and Lost Hills on the basin’s western rim.
In Pleito Creek, the primary producing formation is the Miocene-aged Santa Margarita, which is
found at a depth of 1,700 feet to 3,500 feet (Figure 9). This sand averages 115 feet thick and has
excellent reservoir quality with an average porosity of 28% and permeability as high as 800 Md.
has produced a modest 2.2 MMBls of heavy oil from the Santa Margarita Formation since
Exxon discovered it in 1951.
Exxon developed Pleito Creek through the 1960s with 30 wells and attempted to enhance
recovery with pilot cyclic steam stimulation, commonly referred to as “huff and puff”. This
method injects steam in a well, heats the oil (which lowers its viscosity) and then produces the
oil out of the same well. The process initially increased production, but ultimately created a hard
coke layer around wellbores. Consequently, the field has recovered only 2.0 MMBls, or 6% of
OOIP, and is expected to produce only 4.3 MMBls, or 12% of the 35 MMBls of OOIP, with
additional conventional horizontal development.
In 2008, Nimin drilled five horizontal wells in the Santa Margarita with laterals ranging from 350
feet to 1,250 feet as well as average initial production rates of approximately 90 Bls/d. In
addition to halting the field’s decline, the new wells were designed to be used in a pilot test of
the company’s CMD process.
it believes could increase the RF at Pleito Creek to a range of 35% to 60% from the current
12%.
If the production rate at the H-2 well continues to incline, we look for Nimin to expand its
CMD program next year.
Louisiana
Nimin has been active in southern Louisiana since 2005 through its predecessor, Legacy. The
company holds numerous non-operated interests in producing properties in St. Landry,
Jefferson Davis, Vermillion and Acadia parishes. Once the foundation of the company’s reserve
and production base, the Gulf Coast Region is no longer a core area. As such, management has
no plans for future drilling or significant capital expenditures in Louisiana.
FINANCIAL POSITION
Recent Long-Term Financing And Public Share Offering Supports 2010 and
2011 Capital Budget
As of 1Q10 Nimin had $23mn of short-term debt outstanding, $17mn of which resulted from
the December 17, 2009 purchase of the Wyoming assets. On April 12, 2010, Nimin entered into
an agreement with CLG Energy Finance, LLC for a $36mn credit facility, which carries a
maturity of five years with an annual fixed interest rate of 12.5%. This new financing, which
closed on June 30, 2010, will be used to retire the company’s $23mn bridge loan and support the
2010 and 2011 capital budget.
On the heels of the long-term financing agreement, Nimin announced it had raised $11.5mn in
an equity offering of 9.2mn shares at a price of $1.25 per share. Proceeds from this issuance will
be used to fund the 2010 capital budget of $12 mn for 11 infill wells at Ferguson Ranch and one
well at its CMD project in Pleito Creek.
Pro forma the credit facility and equity raise, we estimate 2010E debt/EBITDA of 9.6x, versus
our peer group average of 1.8x, however, we project 2011E debt/EBITDA of only 1.3x due to
our forecast for strong production growth throughout 4Q10 and 2011.
Liabilities
Current Liabilities $3.41 $3.41 $3.41 $3.41 $3.41
Long-term Debt $0.00 $22.40 $26.25 $29.00 $31.27
Deferred Income Taxes $0.00 ($0.42) ($0.88) ($1.06) ($1.27)
Other Liabilities $1.25 $1.25 $1.25 $1.25 $1.25
Shareholders Equity $77.17 $80.04 $79.29 $79.00 $78.66
Total Liabilities/Equity $104.33 $106.68 $109.31 $111.61 $113.33
Source: Company reports and Thomas Weisel Partners LLC estimates
Gross Gross Gross Net Net Net Oil Gas Oil Gas
Year Oil Gas Mcfe Oil Gas MMcfe Price Price Revenue Revenue
July 1, 2010
2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 $0.00 $0.00 0 0
Page 21 of 25
2011 87,567 0 525,401 67,426 0 405 $69.60 $0.00 4,692,884 0
2012 130,356 0 782,133 100,374 0 602 $69.60 $0.00 6,986,015 0
2013 108,778 0 652,666 83,759 0 503 $69.60 $0.00 5,829,614 0
2014 96,973 0 581,840 74,669 0 448 $69.60 $0.00 5,196,992 0
2015 89,084 0 534,502 68,594 0 412 $69.60 $0.00 4,774,172 0
2016 83,223 0 499,338 64,082 0 384 $69.60 $0.00 4,460,085 0
2017 78,209 0 469,255 60,221 0 361 $69.60 $0.00 4,191,382 0
2018 73,517 0 441,099 56,608 0 340 $69.60 $0.00 3,939,899 0
2019 69,106 0 414,633 53,211 0 319 $69.60 $0.00 3,703,505 0
2020 64,959 0 389,755 50,019 0 300 $69.60 $0.00 3,481,295 0
2021 61,062 0 366,370 47,017 0 282 $69.60 $0.00 3,272,417 0
2022 57,398 0 344,388 44,196 0 265 $69.60 $0.00 3,076,072 0
2023 53,954 0 323,725 41,545 0 249 $69.60 $0.00 2,891,508 0
2024 50,717 0 304,301 39,052 0 234 $69.60 $0.00 2,718,017 0
2025 47,674 0 286,043 36,709 0 220 $69.60 $0.00 2,554,936 0
2026 44,813 0 268,880 34,506 0 207 $69.60 $0.00 2,401,640 0
2027 42,125 0 252,748 32,436 0 195 $69.60 $0.00 2,257,542 0
2028 39,597 0 237,583 30,490 0 183 $69.60 $0.00 2,122,089 0
2029 37,221 0 223,328 28,660 0 172 $69.60 $0.00 1,994,764 0
2030 423,669 0 2,542,012 326,225 0 1,957 $69.60 $0.00 22,705,251 0
Total Prod'n Net Operating Total Net Net Cum Net Net Cum Net
Year Revenue Taxes Loe Cash Flow Capex Cash Flow Cash Flow Cash Flow Cash Flow
2010 0 0 0 0 850,000 (850,000) (850,000) (781,988) (781,988)
2011 4,692,884 281,573 198,255 4,213,056 4,250,000 (36,944) (886,944) (111,678) (893,667)
2012 6,986,015 419,161 369,069 6,197,785 0 6,197,785 5,310,841 4,894,717 4,001,050
2013 5,829,614 349,777 372,760 5,107,078 0 5,107,078 10,417,919 3,663,770 7,664,820
2014 5,196,992 311,820 376,487 4,508,685 0 4,508,685 14,926,605 2,939,526 10,604,346
2015 4,774,172 286,450 380,252 4,107,470 0 4,107,470 19,034,074 2,434,082 13,038,428
2016 4,460,085 267,605 384,055 3,808,425 0 3,808,425 22,842,500 2,051,513 15,089,941
2017 4,191,382 251,483 387,895 3,552,004 0 3,552,004 26,394,503 1,739,433 16,829,375
2018 3,939,899 236,394 391,774 3,311,731 0 3,311,731 29,706,234 1,474,344 18,303,718
2019 3,703,505 222,210 395,692 3,085,603 0 3,085,603 32,791,837 1,248,801 19,552,520 Economics
2020 3,481,295 208,878 399,649 2,872,768 0 2,872,768 35,664,605 1,056,973 20,609,493
2021 3,272,417 196,345 403,645 2,672,427 0 2,672,427 38,337,032 893,880 21,503,372 Net Present Value ($ 000)
2022 3,076,072 184,564 407,682 2,483,826 0 2,483,826 40,820,857 755,274 22,258,647 0% 70,719
2023 2,891,508 173,490 411,759 2,306,259 0 2,306,259 43,127,116 637,532 22,896,179 10% 26,625
2024 2,718,017 163,081 415,876 2,139,060 0 2,139,060 45,266,176 537,562 23,433,741 NPV10 Per Share
2025 2,554,936 153,296 420,035 1,981,605 0 1,981,605 47,247,781 452,724 23,886,465 $0.40
2026 2,401,640 144,098 424,235 1,833,306 0 1,833,306 49,081,087 380,771 24,267,236
2027 2,257,542 135,452 428,478 1,693,611 0 1,693,611 50,774,699 319,782 24,587,018 IG Value $3.31 per Mcf
2028 2,122,089 127,325 432,762 1,562,001 0 1,562,001 52,336,700 268,124 24,855,142 IRR 219%
2029 1,994,764 119,686 437,090 1,437,988 0 1,437,988 53,774,688 224,400 25,079,542 ROI 14.87
2030 22,705,251 1,362,315 4,398,151 16,944,785 0 16,944,785 70,719,473 1,545,414 26,624,956 DROI (10%) 6.22
Payout 1.13 years
Total 93,250,080 5,595,005 11,835,602 75,819,473 5,100,000 70,719,473 26,624,956 Finding Cost $0.63 per Mcf
Source: Company reports and Thomas Weisel LLC estimates
Notes: Price chart updated as of 6/28/2010. All price targets displayed in the chart above represent either a specific price target or the midpoint of a range. Prior to
November 16, 2006, Thomas Weisel Partners LLC used a three-tier rating system with different rating names and definitions: Outperform, Peer Perform and
Underperform.
Source: First Call, FactSet and Thomas Weisel Partners LLC
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC or Thomas Weisel Partners Canada, Inc. or another affiliate of Thomas Weisel Partners LLC has managed
or co-managed a public offering of securities over the past 12 months for the following company or companies: Nimin Energy
Corporation.
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC or Thomas Weisel Partners Canada, Inc. or another affiliate of Thomas Weisel Partners LLC has received
compensation for investment banking services from the following company or companies mentioned in this report over the past 12
months: Nimin Energy Corporation.
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC or Thomas Weisel Partners Canada, Inc. or another affiliate of Thomas Weisel Partners LLC expects to
receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the following company or companies mentioned in this
report over the next three months: Nimin Energy Corporation.
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC or Thomas Weisel Partners Canada, Inc. or another affiliate of Thomas Weisel Partners LLC has provided
or is currently providing investment banking services to the following company or companies mentioned in this report during the past
12 months: Nimin Energy Corporation.
Nimin Energy Corporation: We have established a 12-month price target of $2.50, based on our estimated equal weighting between
2010EV/EBITDA and price/NAV multiple being valued at a 20-25% premium to our peer group average. There are always risks that
the target price for any security will not be realized. In addition to general market and macroeconomic risks, oil and natural gas price
volatility, well performance, financial and local oil and gas market risk could adversely affect the stock performance.
The following table outlines the Thomas Weisel Partners LLC stock rating system, along with the relevant definitions, effective
November 16, 2006.
PCT. OF PCT. FOR
SECURITIES WHICH IB
STOCK RATED IN SERVICES HAVE
RATING STOCK RATINGS DEFINITIONS EACH CATEGORY BEEN PROVIDED
When an analyst rates a stock Overweight, he/she is 63.6% 29.2%
advising our clients to carry a position in the stock that is
in excess of its weighting relative to the stocks either in
Overweight (O)
that analyst's coverage or an index identified by the analyst
that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by that
analyst.
Total Buy 63.6% 29.2%
When an analyst rates a stock Market Weight, he/she is 34.8% 12.0%
advising our clients to carry a position in the stock that is
in line with its weighting relative to the stocks either in
Market Weight (M)
that analyst's coverage or an index identified by the analyst
that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by that
analyst.
Total Hold 34.8% 12.0%
When an analyst rates a stock Underweight, he/she is 1.6% 14.3%
advising our clients to carry a position in the stock that is
below its weighting relative to the stocks either in that
Underweight (U)
analyst's coverage or an index identified by the analyst that
includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by that
analyst.
Total Sell 1.6% 14.3%
Suspended Rating (S) The stock rating has been suspended.
The following grid outlines the Thomas Weisel Partners LLC industry rating system, along with the relevant definitions, effective
November 16, 2006.
INDUSTRY RATINGS INDUSTRY RATINGS DEFINITIONS
When an analyst assigns a Favorable rating to an industry that means he/she believes that, generally, the
Favorable
industry's fundamentals or stock prospects are improving.
When an analyst assigns a Neutral rating to an industry that means he/she believes that, generally, the
Neutral
industry's fundamentals or stock prospects are stable.
When an analyst assigns an Unfavorable rating to an industry that means he/she believes that, generally,
Unfavorable
the industry's fundamentals or stock prospects are deteriorating.
Source: Thomas Weisel Partners LLC
The following grid outlines the Thomas Weisel Partners LLC stock rating system, along with the relevant definitions, in effect from April
4, 2003, to November 16, 2006.
COMPANY RATING RATINGS DEFINITION
The stock is expected to outperform the median performance of the Analyst's coverage universe over the
Outperform (O)
next six to 12 months.
The stock is expected to perform in line with the median performance of the Analyst's coverage universe
Peer Perform (P)
over the next six to 12 months.
The stock is expected to underperform the median performance of the Analyst's coverage universe over
Underperform (U)
the next six to 12 months.
Suspended Rating (S) The stock rating has been suspended.
Not Rated (NR) The stock is not rated, but it is covered by a Thomas Weisel Partners LLC analyst.
Not Covered (NC) The stock is not covered by a Thomas Weisel Partners LLC analyst.
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