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Reliability

Engineering
Principles
Drew Troyer, CRE, CMRP
Noria Corporation
Presentation Outline

Whats driving adoption of the use of reliability


methods in plant reliability management
The Certified Reliability Engineer (CRE)
qualification
The exponential distribution
Weibull analysis
Estimating system reliability
Beyond this introduction
Perceived Risk Drives Reliability Investments

Cause of Death NY Times front page


articles per 1000 deaths
Cancer 0.02

Homicide 1.7

AIDS 2.3

Aviation 138.2

Ref: Barnett, Bernwoski Quality Progress


Professional Qualification Certified Reliability
Engineer (CRE)

Requirements
Requirementsfor forCertification
Certification
Eight
Eight years verifiableexperience
years verifiable experienceand/or
and/or
education up to five years for education.
education up to five years for education.
Proof
Proofofofprofessionalism
professionalism
Successful
Successfulcompletion
completionofofexamination
examination

Core
CoreSkills
SkillsEvaluated
Evaluatedby bythetheCRE
CREExamination
Examination
Reliability Management
Reliability Management
Probability
Probabilityand
andStatistical
StatisticalTools
Tools
Modeling and Prediction
Modeling and Prediction
Data
DataCollection,
Collection,Analysis,
Analysis,andandCorrective
CorrectiveAction
Action
Reliability
ReliabilityTools
ToolsininDesign
Designand andDevelopment
Development
Maintainability and Availability
Maintainability and Availability
Reliability
ReliabilityTesting
Testing
Product
Product Safetyand
Safety andLiability
Liability

Ref: ASQ
Failure Rate
= r /T

Where:
= Failure rate (sometimes referred to as the hazard rate)
T = Total running time/cycles/miles/etc. during an investigation period for both
failed and non-failed items.
r = The total number of failures occurring during the investigation period.

Example: Five electric motors run for a collective period of fifty years with five
functional failures, the failure rate is 0.1 failures per year.
Mean Time Between/To Failure

= T /r

Where:
= Mean-Time-Between/To-Failure
T = Total running time/cycles/miles/etc. during an investigation period for both
failed and non-failed items.
r = The total number of failures occurring during the investigation period.

Example: The reciprocal of failure rate, the MTBF (MTTF) for our electric motor
example is 10 years.
The Failure Rate versus Time Different Scenarios

1917 Ref: DT
The Much Maligned Bathtub Curve

1913a Ref: DT
Reliability Estimation Using the Exponential
Distribution
R( t ) = e t

Where:
R(t) = Reliability estimate for a period of time, cycles, miles, etc. (t).
e = Base of the natural logarithms (2.718281828)
= Failure rate (1/MTBF, or 1/MTTF)

In our electric motor example, if one assumes a constant failure rate the likelihood of
running a motor for six years without a failure, or the projected reliability, is 55%. This
is calculated as follows:

R(6) = 2.718281828-(0.1* 6)
R(6) = 0.5488 = ~ 55%
Exponential Probability Density Function

pdf ( t ) = e t

Where:
pdf(t) = Life frequency distribution for a given time (t)
e = Base of the natural logarithms (2.718281828)
= Failure rate (1/MTBF, or 1/MTTF)

In our electric motor example, the actual likelihood of failure at three years is calculated
as follows:

pdf(3) = 01. * 2.718281828-(0.1* 3)


pdf(3) = 0.1 * 0.7408
pdf(3) = .07408 = ~ 7.4%
Exponential PDF Curve

1918 Ref: DT
Exponential Failure Rate vs. Cumulative Failures

1919 Ref: DT
Weibull Distribution

1920 Ref: DT
Weibull Failure Density vs. Time

1921 Ref: DT
Weibull Based Calculations

t

t R(t ) = e
h( t ) =
t
Where:
Where:
R(t) = Reliability estimate for a period of time, cycles, miles, etc. (t)
h(t) = Failure rate (or hazard rate) for a given time (t)
e = Base of the natural logarithms (2.718281828) e = Base of the natural logarithms (2.718281828)
= Estimated MTBF/MTTF = Estimated MTBF/MTTF
= Weibull shape parameter from plot. = Weibull shape parameter from plot.


t
t
pdf (t ) = e
t The
TheWeibull
Weibullcoefficient
coefficient
influences
influencesthethehazard
hazard(failure),
(failure),
Where:
pdf(t) = Probability density function estimate for a period of time, cycles, miles, reliability
reliability and pdf estimatesofof
and pdf estimates
etc. (t) the
thebasic
basicexponential
exponential
e = Base of the natural logarithms (2.718281828)
= Estimated MTBF/MTTF distribution.
distribution.
= Weibull shape parameter from plot.
Reliability Estimates Under Different Values of

1922 Ref: DT
Reliability Block Diagram Simple Serial System

System reliability = 0.73

Rs (t ) = R1(t ) R 2 ( t ) ... Rn(t )

Where:
Rs(t) System reliability for given time (t)
R1-n(t) Subsystem or sub-function reliability for given time (t)

1923 Ref: DT
Reliability Block Diagram Simple Parallel System

System reliability = 0.99

[ ]
Rs ( t ) = 1 (1 R1( t ) ) (1 R 2 (t ) ) ... (1 Rn(t ) )

Where:
Rs(t) System reliability for given time (t)
R1-n(t) Subsystem or sub-function reliability for given time (t)

1923a Ref: DT
Reliability Block Diagram Combination System

System reliability = 0.801

1923b Ref: DT
r/n System Reliability Estimation
k
n!
R( r k ) = p r (1 p ) n r
r = 0 r!( n r!)

Where:
Rs = System reliability given the actual number of failures (r) is less than or equal
the maximum allowable (k)
r = The actual number of failures
k = The maximum allowable number of failures
n = The total number of units in the system
p = The probability of survival, or the subcomponent reliability for a given time
(t).

Pulverizer example - assuming a subcomponent reliability of 0.90, the equation works out
as a summation of the following:

P(0) = 0.6561
P(1) = 0.2916

So, the likelihood of completing the mission time (t) is 0.9477 (0.6561 + 0.2916), or
approximately 95%.
Conclusion This is just an introduction develop
your knowledge further

More detailed understanding of the Weibull distribution and its


applications
More detailed understanding of the exponential distribution and its
applications
The Gaussian distribution and its applications
The log-normal distribution and its applications
Confidence intervals (binomial, chi-square/Poisson, etc.)
Beta distribution and its applications
Bayesian applications of reliability engineering methods
Stress-strength interference analysis
Testing options and their applicability to plant reliability
engineering
Reliability growth strategies and management
Collection of field data

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