BC TRACKING - MARCH 25-27, 2017

EMBARGOED UNTIL:
6 AM PST, APRIL 1, 2017
PRINT EXCLUSIVE:
POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Methodology
Mainstreet surveyed a stratied random sample of
1,650 British Columbians from March 25-27, 2017
through Chimera IVR. Respondents were screened
to conrm voting eligibility. Landline and Cell lines
were included. Responses were weighed using
demographic information to targets based on the
2011 Census.
The margin of error for survey results is 2.41
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For Greater
Vancouver specic results, the margin of error is
3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For
Vancouver Island specic results, the margin of
error is 4.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
For Rest of BC results, the margin of error is 4.64
percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Note: Beginning this week BC Conservative Voters
stopped being asked Party Strength and Second
Choice questions, instead BC Conservative Voters
were asked what they would do in the event no
Conservative Candidate ran in their riding.
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
majority government in the 2015 federal election.
Contact Information
In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Montreal: David Valentin, Executive Vice
President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
GREENS TIE LIBERALS FOR FIRST ON VANCOUVER ISLAND

April 1, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the B.C. Greens continue to gain - and
now tie the B.C. Liberals on Vancouver Island for rst place. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of
error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Its another week of growth for the Greens this week said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
But many questions remain as to whether voters will actually vote for the Green Party at the ballot box.
Only 35% of Green Party Voters say their vote is locked in - 45% of Green Voters say they may change their
mind. To be sure, a vote is a vote is a vote - but only if its actually cast and counted.

The strength of the Green Party vote has fallen but this is mainly a result of the fact they are adding new
supporters. The Strength of the B.C. Liberal vote is strongest at 73% followed by that of the BC NDP at
64%.

Among all voters: 25% Liberal, 29% NDP, 14% Green, 9% Conservative, 23% Undecided
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: 34% Liberal, 36% NDP, 19% Green, 11 Conservative

This week we stopped asking BC Conservative Voters about their vote strength and second choice to
instead ask them what they plan to do if there is no Conservative Candidate in their riding.

The question was: So far, the B.C. Conservatives have nominated 6 candidates out of 87 constituencies. If
there is no B.C. Conservative in your riding who would you vote for?

B.C. Conservatives said: 11% would vote for the B.C. Liberals, 20% would vote for the B.C. NDP, 9% would
vote for the B.C. Greens, 37% are undecided in what they would do and 23% said they would not vote at all.

Using these numbers were able to create a new voter intention number - Decided and Leaning with BC
Conservative Voters Reassigned, continued Maggi. Using this new measure we can show what would
happen if the Conservatives had no candidates at all. Those new numbers are 37% for the B.C. Liberals,
41% for the B.C. NDP and 22% for the B.C. Greens.

When we look at the standard decided and leaning number we see just a gap between the Liberals and
NDP of just two percentage points. This is an incredibly tight race, he nished.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

Greens Gain (Again)
The BC Greens continue to gain support - this
week mostly at the expense of the BC NDP.
The Greens are at 19% province-wide, one point
away from breaking into the low twenties of
support.
Notably the BC Greens now tie the BC Liberals on
Vancouver Island where both are now at 32%. Most
of the Greens gains on Vancouver Island came at
the expense of the NDP who are down 10% to 28%.
Support is down for the Greens in the Rest of
British Columbia (-1), up in Vancouver Island (+6),
and Greater Vancouver (+3).
In Greater Vancouver, the Green Party rise in
Decided & Leaning Voters
support mostly came at the expense of the BC
Conservatives (-4).
Troublingly for the Greens is their support strength
numbers which is signicantly lower than the
Liberals (73% Strong) or NDP (64% Strong).
45% of Green Party supporters say they may
change their minds, only 35% classify themselves
as strong supporters.
For the NDP, this is troublesome news on
Vancouver Island and potentially in the rest of the
province too.
For the Liberals, this could be good news if the
Greens and NDP can evenly split anti-Liberal vote.
But it is worth noting this is the same strategy that
was employed by the Conservative Party in the
2015 election - to no success.
British Columbia voters have been used to two
doors in previous elections, what happens if they
perceive the Green Party to be a viable option is a
complete unknown.
While the Greens are doing well now, there is every
chance they may be peaking too soon. More
support will also mean more scrutiny of every
candidate the Green Party has nominated. And as
voters take a closer look at the Green Party
platform they may not like everything they see.
Perhaps the Green Party is attractive to voters in
theory, not reality and they will move away when
the writ drops. Or perhaps the Greens will surprise
us all in British Columbia - only time will tell.
Among All Voters
 (DISCONTINUED)

Strength Consistent
Support Strength for the Green Party has dropped
again - this time from 42% to 35%. Mostly this is
because they have added new voters, but the fact
45% of Green Voters might change their mind
should be a huge warning sign to the Green
campaign.
 Second Choices
This week we see soft Liberal voters saying they will vote
Conservative (last week it was NDP). The Greens are still the
second choice of 50% of Soft NDP Voters, and vice-versa.

(DISCONTINUED)
 Decided & Leaning Voters with BC Conservative Voters Reassigned
So far, the B.C. Conservatives have nominated 6
candidates out of 87 constituencies. If there is
no B.C. Conservative in your riding who would
you vote for?
Where B.C. Conservatives Would Go
23% of B.C. Conservative voters say they wouldnt
vote at all if the party is not on the ballot but a
great deal more are undecided (37%).
What we can do with this new information is
reassign voters to calculate what would happen if
there were no B.C. Conservative candidates at all.
To date, the B.C. Conservatives have nominated 6
candidates out of 87 constituencies, or, 7%.
This creates real questions about whether the B.C.
Conservatives - who have no leader, no seat in the
legislature and who cannot participate in the
Leaders debate, should be included in polling at
all.
Our position has been, and is currently, that the
B.C Conservatives are polling high enough to be
included and we will continue to re-evaluate the
situation as is needed with signicant input from
our media partner.