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01 July 2010
CDS v2.0
The new architecture of the CDS market
• Summary - Over the past year the CDS market has undergone the most Credit Derivatives Research
substantial changes since the introduction of the ISDA 2003 Standard Saul Doctor
AC
Terms and Definitions. These changes are aimed at standardising CDS (44-20) 7325-3699
contracts and reducing annuity and counterparty risks. We review the saul.doctor@jpmorgan.com
motivation behind the changes and analyse their impact on the market. J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
AC
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• Documentation, conventions and regulations - The major changes in (91-22) 6157-3279
the structure of the CDS market cover three main areas: harpreet.x.singh@jpmorgan.com
Figure 1: Gross Notional outstanding for all credit products Figure 2: Monthly volume (increases) traded for all credit products
$ Trillion. $ Trillion. Rolling 4-week average volume, only considering new trades.
34 9.5
32 8.5
30 7.5
28 6.5
26 5.5
24 4.5
Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10
Table of Contents
Overview ...................................................................................3
CDS Documentation Changes.................................................4
Big Bang Protocol........................................................................................................4
Small Bang Protocol ....................................................................................................7
Trading and Quoting Conventions........................................10
Trading with upfront plus fixed coupon ....................................................................11
Restructuring standards..............................................................................................12
Full first coupon.........................................................................................................12
CDSW changes ..........................................................................................................12
Tranche quoting convention changes.........................................................................15
Central Clearing......................................................................16
Appendix .................................................................................21
Appendix A: CDS Determinations Committee..........................................................21
Appendix B: Credit Events and Restructuring Standards ..........................................23
Appendix C: Auction Process ....................................................................................27
Appendix D: Auction Case Study - Thomson Restructuring .....................................31
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Overview
The CDS market has undergone substantial changes in the recent past. Most of these
changes are aimed at standardising CDS contracts to facilitate the reduction in
notional outstanding and to reduce annuity and counterparty risks. In this publication
we summarise these changes and analyse how they have changed the structure of the
CDS market in terms of the documentation and trading conventions. We also review
the introduction of CDS clearing and the CDS Determinations Committee as well as
their role in achieving the above mentioned goals.
CDS Clearing - A CDS clearing house is a financial institution that acts as a central
counterparty to all cleared CDS contracts. In a “cleared” CDS contract, the buyer and
seller of protection face the clearing house, as opposed to each other (as in a bilateral,
i.e. “not cleared”, contract). The CDS clearing house is intended to reduce
counterparty risk and facilitate netting. According to InterContinentalExchange
(ICE), which offers clearing services in the US and Europe, the result of netting can
be as much as 90% reduction in the notional outstanding with the introduction of a
CDS clearing house.
According to The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), since October
2008, the gross notional outstanding for CDS has dropped from $33.56 trillion to
$24.80 trillion in Jun 2010, whereas the 4 week rolling average increases in volume
traded (considering only new trades) has increased from $5.4 trillion in March 2009
to around $7.7 trillion in June 2010.
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1. All trades are subject to the various determinations of the Credit Derivatives
Determination Committee;
2. All trades contractually settle via the auction;
3. All trades are subject to the dynamic look back effective date; and
4. New rules governing the FX rate used for bonds denominated in a currency
other than the contract currency.
We review these changes below.
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The Big Bang protocol ensures that all contracts settle via the auction as it is
now hard-wired into the CDS documentation. As before, investors can still opt
for physical or cash settlement via the auction. Investors will still be able to
settle their contracts outside of the auction, but this will need to be by mutual
consent of both counterparties.
3. The effective date for all CDS contracts is a rolling x-60 days for Credit
Events and x-90 days for Succession Events. Prior to the Big Bang protocol,
for a buyer of protection the protection started one business day after the trade
date and lasted until the maturity of the contract. Therefore, if a credit event took
place on the trading day, i.e. at time t, the protection buyer was not covered by
this CDS as the effective date was a static t+1 fixed in time. This is illustrated in
Figure 3.
Figure 3: Earlier contracts were not fungible: If contract 1 and contract 2 are traded at different dates, they did not provide credit event
coverage for the same time span…
Trading date Today Maturity date
Contract 1
Trading date +
1 business day
Contract 2
Trading date +
1 business day
After the changes introduced by the Big Bang protocol, CDS contracts provide
credit event protection starting 60 calendar days prior to today’s date
(independent of the trading date and therefore rolling every day) until the
maturity of the contract. In other words, since June 2009 CDS contracts have a
rolling x-60 (or x-90) effective date: all contracts have identical effective dates
on any given day, making them completely fungible. Similarly, the new CDS
contract covers succession events between 90 calendar days before today’s date
and the maturity of the contract.
For example, the effective dates for two trades on the same credit, one done at x
and the other at x+10 under the documentation prior to Big Bang were x+1 and
x+11, irrespective of where we are in the contract (Figure 3), whereas after the
Big Bang protocol both trades have a rolling effective date of x-50 on day x+10.
This is illustrated in Figure 4.
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Figure 4: …whereas new contracts are completely fungible, as two contracts traded on different days always cover the same period of time.
Trading date Today Maturity date
Contract 1
Today – 60
calendar days
Contract 2
Today – 60
calendar days
4. FX rate for deliverable obligations. Once the auction price has been
determined, CDS counterparties that have opted for physical settlement need to
settle their contracts: protection buyers deliver obligations with a face value
equal to the CDS notional and receive par, whereas protection sellers pay par
and receive the delivered obligations. After the auction, sellers of bonds (i.e.
protection buyers) need to deliver the “Notice of Physical Settlement” (NOPS)
to the relevant bidder in the auction, specifying the deliverable obligations they
will deliver. Protection buyers can switch to a different bond or loan in a
different deliverable currency during the period between the delivery of NOPS
and the physical settlement date by delivering another NOPS.
The changes introduced by the Big Bang protocol relate to the FX rates used
when the protection buyer changes the currency of the deliverable obligations.
These changes facilitate the FX hedging by the protection seller (who may be
receiving bonds in a different currency than the CDS contract).
Prior to the Big Bang protocol, if the protection buyer delivered a new NOPS
changing the currency of the obligations to deliver, the protection buyer used the
exchange rate between the contract currency and the new currency to determine
the amount of notional he would have to deliver. The drawback of this process
was that, if the protection buyer changed the currency of the deliverable
obligations multiple times, it would leave the protection seller unable to hedge
his currency risk.
Under the Big Bang protocol the FX rate to be used for deliverables
denominated in a currency different from the contract currency is re-spotted
every time a “Notice of Physical Settlement” (NOPS) is delivered and uses the
new and old currency for the FX rate.
As an example, consider a buyer of protection that needs to deliver €100mm of
Table 1: Example exchange rate
bonds. At the day of delivering the first NOPS, if the $/€ exchange rate is 1.5,
movements
the buyer of protection needs to deliver $150mm of bonds. Let's assume that the
Exchange rate $/ € exchange rate moves to 1, the £/€ exchange rate is 0.75 and the buyer
Currency Earlier Later
$/€ 1.5 1
decides to deliver in £ (by delivering a new NOPS). Prior to the Big Bang, he
£/€ 1 0.75 would have had to deliver £75mm notional of bonds as the contract currency is €
£/$ 0.66 0.75 and the new currency is £. After the Big Bang was introduced, the protection
Source: J.P. Morgan. buyer has to deliver £112.5mm notional worth of bonds as the new currency is £
but the old currency is $ (using £/$ exchange rate as 0.75).
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If the protection buyer triggers the contract, it is entered into the bucket
corresponding to the maturity of the CDS contract. For each bucket shown in Table
2, the deliverable obligations are restricted by a maximum maturity corresponding to
that bucket. For example a protection buyer with a CDS contract maturity falling due
within the 2.5 to 5 year bucket will be able to deliver any obligation up to 5 years.
Any contract longer than 20 years will be entered into the >20 year bucket. Also if
the protection seller triggers the contract then it will be entered into the final bucket
and any obligation up to 30 years can be delivered.
Neither the buyer nor the seller of protection is obliged to trigger the contract on a
restructuring event, although if neither party triggers by the auction date then neither
party can trigger on that particular restructuring event in the future.
Index Options If a restructuring event occurs before the expiry of an index option, option investors
have the right to trigger the restructuring event. The underlying CDS index will split
into two contracts, as we explained above, whether the restructuring credit event is
triggered or not. The decision to trigger the restructuring event will then influence the
decision to exercise the option.
An option contract is treated in the same way as a CDS contract in terms of the
application of the maturity limitation. If the investor, who would enter into a long
protection position if the option contract is exercised, triggers the CDS contract, it is
entered into the bucket corresponding to the maturity of the CDS contract. On the
other hand if the investor who would enter into a short protection position if the
option contract is exercised triggers the CDS restructuring event, it is entered into the
longest dated bucket. For example, if the buyer of a payer option on the iTraxx index
(option to buy protection on the iTraxx index) triggers the CDS contract on a
restructuring event, the maturity limitation applies and he is entered into the bucket
corresponding to the CDS contract maturity. If the seller of a payer option triggers
the CDS contract, it is entered into the longest dated bucket.
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Investors that trigger the restructuring credit event enter the auction and the cash
settlement amount is paid or received at the option expiry, if the option is exercised.
Investors that do not trigger the restructuring credit event and exercise the option on
expiry are entered into an index position (without the restructured name) plus a CDS
on the unexercised single name.
Index Tranches Index tranche investors who wish to trigger their contracts will be entered into the
auction with the result of the auction determining the payment and/or the new
attachment and detachment points of their tranche. These tranches will then become
the standard index tranches referencing the new untranched index (ex-restructured
entity). Since indices with differing maturities could be entered into different
auctions, tranche widths and attachment points could differ across the tenors of the
same index series.
Those tranche investors who do not wish to exercise on the credit event will continue
to hold standard transactions, but will reference a portfolio with the restructured
entity remaining as a constituent.
This section outlined the changes which were “hardwired” into the documentation of
CDS contracts. In the next section we review the changes in trading and quoting
conventions. Trading and quoting conventions do not change anything in the
contract; they are just market conventions that have been adopted to allow easier
netting and clearing of CDS contracts.
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1. Trading format: Upfront plus fixed coupon – All CDS contracts now trade in
upfront plus fixed coupon format. Standard coupons for European contracts are
25bp, 100bp, 300bp, 500bp, 750bp and 1,000bp, whereas North American
contracts trade with fixed coupons of 100bp or 500bp.
2. Full first coupon - Single name contracts trade with a full first coupon rather than
a stub. This is applicable to both European and North American contracts.
3. Restructuring Standards - While European contracts trade with Modified
Modified Restructuring (MMR) as a standard for restructuring, North American
contracts trade with No Restructuring (NR) and Sovereign (both Western Europe
and EM) and Emerging Market corporate CDS trade with Old Restructuring (Old
R) as a standard.
Spread Definitions
As mentioned above, all CDS contracts trade with a fixed coupon plus an initial
upfront. While index contracts have always traded this way, single name CDS used
Par Spreads – Running spread, in to be traded (and quoted) on a par spread format.
bp, which generates a zero initial
PV (i.e. upfront), taking the full
CDS curve into account. Although trading is now always done on an upfront plus fixed coupon format,
spreads are generally quoted in order to facilitate the comparison across products
Flat Spreads – Running spread, in
bp, which generates a zero initial
(except for very wide names). Flat spreads, rather than par spreads, are currently
PV (i.e. upfront) using a flat CDS used for quoting purposes. The grey box on the left explains the main differences
curve and a pre-agreed recovery between coupons, par spreads and flat spreads. In order to convert flat spreads to
rate (e.g. 40%). upfront, and vice-versa, as well as to mark-to-market CDS contracts, the ISDA
Coupon – Annual payment, in bp, Upfront Model has been introduced. Thus, the two final changes in CDS trading and
in a CDS contract. In the current quoting conventions are:
trading convention the coupon is
always equal to one of a set of pre- 4. CDS contracts (single names, indices and tranches) are currently traded on
agreed standard fixed coupons. In
the past, when CDS traded on a
an upfront plus fixed coupon format and quoted on a flat spread format
par spread format, the coupon was (except very wide names and junior tranches, which are quoted on an upfront plus
equal to the par spread at the time fixed coupon format).
of entering the contract.
5. CDSW Model changes - The ISDA Upfront Model (available via Bloomberg
Upfront (Cash Amount) – Initial CDSW screen) is used to convert flat spreads to upfronts, and vice-versa, and to
upfront cost to enter the contract.
This amount can be positive or
mark-to-market contracts.
negative and is a function of the As opposed to the changes discussed in the previous section, the changes discussed
fixed coupon used and the market
spread at each point in time.
in this section are just market conventions that have been introduced for easier
netting and clearing.
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The problem with this trading convention was that each contract was entered at
potentially different par spreads (and therefore coupons), which made netting of
contracts almost impossible. As an example, consider a CDS contract, traded on a
par spread format, where the investor initially buys protection at 500bp and spreads
widen to 800bp. There are two ways in which the investor could exit the trade: either
he goes to his original counterparty to unwind the trade or he enters into an offsetting
trade with the new spread (i.e. he sells protection at 800bp). This is illustrated in
Figure 5, which assumes a risky annuity of 3. In case of an unwind, the investor
receives the profit on the trade (9% = 300bp times the risky annuity) and the contract
is no longer outstanding. However, if the investor enters into an offsetting contract at
800bp, he is left with a net risky annual coupon of 300bp. This series of cashflows is
risky as it will disappear in case of a default.
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Trading is always done in upfront plus coupon format in all CDS products (single
name, indices and tranches). Quoting, on the other hand, is generally done on a flat
spread format (except for higher spread credits and junior tranches, for which upfront
plus fixed coupon is used for both trading and quoting). The ISDA Upfront Model is
used to convert flat spreads to upfront; we review this model later in this section.
Restructuring standards
Different regions have moved to different restructuring standards. While
Standard North American CDS contracts trade with NR (No Restructuring),
European contracts have MMR (Modified Modified Restructuring) as the
restructuring standard. This means that restructuring is not a credit event for
standard North American CDS contracts. This was implemented because the
operational challenge to settle a CDS trade that has a Credit Event due to a Modified
Restructuring (MR) trigger can be large. Market participants who require
restructuring as a credit event will still be able to do so, but this is not the standard.
Sovereign (both Western Europe and EM) and Emerging Market CDS trade with Old
Restructuring (Old R) as a standard for restructuring.
For a detailed analysis of the different restructuring standards used, please refer to
Appendix B: Credit Events and Restructuring Standards.
For example, consider a standard trade on a 500bp coupon, entered into mid-way
through a coupon period, on 5 August. The protection buyer will receive half of the
quarterly coupon (=62.5bp) on 5 August. On the next coupon date, 20 September, the
protection buyer will pay the full first coupon (=125bp) to the protection seller.
CDSW changes
The ISDA Upfront Model, available via CDSW in Bloomberg, is now the market
standard for converting flat spreads into upfront plus coupons format and vice-
versa. This improves trading and quotation efficiency as the quoting is usually done
in flat spreads even though the contracts are executed in upfront plus coupon format.
We highlight the main changes between the new and the old models.
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The important point to bear in mind when comparing the different models is that the
CDS contract is not changing due to the differing models and that other than the
payment of the coupon, which changed from a short first coupon to a full one, the
valuation of the contract should be independent of the model used.
Available Models
Historically, market participants used the JPMorgan Model for calculating the
upfront cost and unwind Mark-to-Market of CDS contracts. Under the current market
standardisation two new models are available in CDSW:
Source: Bloomberg.
If all quotes are based on the same coupon and recovery rate, an investor can easily
compare the different quotes to see which is the most attractive, i.e. which quote
gives them the most attractive upfront amount.
The main difference between this model and the previous J.P. Morgan model is that
the ISDA Upfront Model assumes a single flat spread to the maturity of the contract,
i.e. it assumes a flat CDS curve. The previous model allowed the user to input the
full CDS par spread. The quoted price under the previous model would therefore
depend on the shape of the curve used, while under the ISDA Upfront Model only a
single market spread is needed.
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Source: Bloomberg.
There are several contract conventions available in the CDSW screen (Figure 7),
which takes into account the standard trading conventions for different regions such
as Standard European Corporate (STEC), Standard North American Corporate
(SNAC) and Standard Western European Sovereign Contract (SWES). In Table 3 we
highlight the main differences between the ISDA Standard Upfront and the ISDA
Fair Value model:
Table 3: Model Differences
Model Hazard Rates Last Coupon Accrual Accrual on Default Day Valuation Cash Full First
Date Settlement Coupon
1) ISDA Standard Upfront Calculated using single spread endDate - startDate +1 Paid for full day t t+3 Yes
2) ISDA Fair Value Calculated from input Par spreads endDate - startDate +1 Paid for full day t t+3 Yes
Source: J.P. Morgan.; SNAC is Standard North American Contract
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Figure 8: QCDS screen for converting from Flat spreads to upfront plus fixed coupon and vice versa
Source: Bloomberg.
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Central Clearing
Market stress and bank failures in 2009 highlighted the uncertainty surrounding CDS
contracts in which a counterparty failed, as well as the treatment of client margins in
the affected contracts. A clearing house addresses these concerns by acting as a
counterparty to all contracts, segregating client margins and making it much easier
for trade portability.
Two ICE CDS clearing houses were launched last year: ICE Trust (U.S.) in March
2009 and ICE Clear (Europe) in July 2009. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange
(CME) group began clearing in December 2009. All CDS clearing houses officially
began operations after receiving regulatory approvals from the Fed, SEC, and other
governing bodies. There has been more than $9 trillion CDS gross notional cleared
by ICE1 on a global basis.
The clearing house is set up such that members of the clearing house, dealers and
clearing brokers who meet the membership criteria, face the clearing house rather
than each other. Members are required to post initial margin, maintenance margin
and are also required to contribute to the guaranty fund. Currently, clients’ trades are
cleared through a clearing broker and they do not face the clearing house directly.
a. The clearing house sets Initial margin and Maintenance margin rules that
govern the collateral that each member posts to the clearing house. These rules
take into account the risk of each member’s portfolio.
b. Trade Portability allows clients to port their trades from one clearing broker to
another, in case the original broker comes under stress.
c. Segregation of client margins The clearing house segregates clients’ margins
from the dealer’s margins and usually maintains them in a Client Omnibus
account.
d. If a member defaults, the clearing house will use margin accounts plus additional
resources known as Guaranty funds to offset the cost of replacing the defaulted
member’s positions with the clearing house.
1
More information can be found at : https://www.theice.com/
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If Dealer B defaults, the clearing house needs to buy $100 of protection in the market
to re-establish a flat risk position in company Z. The initial and mark-to-market
margins and the guaranty fund posted by Dealer B with the clearing house are
available to offset the costs of doing so. If Dealer B’s collateral is insufficient, then
the guaranty funds from other clearing house members are used. As of March 2010,
ICE Trust and ICE Clear Europe together held guaranty funds of around $3 billion.
Dealer A Dealer B
short risk long risk
Clearing house
Dealer A Dealer B
short risk long risk short risk long risk
Investor X Dealer A
short risk long risk
Dealer B
Investor X Clearing Clearing house Dealer A
Broker long risk
short risk long risk short risk
long risk short risk
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Trade Portability
Although non-members do not face the clearing house directly, they will be able
to port their trades from one member to another more easily, even if their
original dealer is under stress. For example, if a non-member buys $100 of
protection on Credit Z from Dealer A (Figure 10), after clearing it faces its clearing
broker, Dealer B. Should Dealer B come under stress and the investor wishes to port
their trade to another dealer, they should readily be able to do so as the new dealer
would replace the stressed dealer in the deal and the margins will be transferred as
Dealer B transfers both legs of the trade to Dealer C. Thus, the investor no longer
faces the stressed Dealer B but faces Dealer C (Figure 11) and Dealer C does not face
Dealer B, but faces the clearing house once the trade is cleared.
Dealer B
Investor X Clearing Clearing house Dealer A
Broker long risk
short risk long risk short risk
long risk short risk
Dealer C
Clearing
Broker
long risk short risk
Client Default
If a client defaults and the clearing member remains solvent and operational, the
clearing member may use the defaulting member’s margin in the Omnibus account at
the clearing house to unwind the client’s position (Figure 12).
Investor A CDS
Clearing house
Dealer A
CDS Client Omnibus
Investor B Dealer A
Account
• Investor A $
CDS
• Investor B $
• Investor C $
Investor C
ICE Trust (US) currently has 13 clearing members and ICE Clear (Europe) has 14
members. Any firm can become an ICE clearing member. As of now, requirements
include $5bn of Tier 1 capital, a credit rating and a $50mm CDS security deposit.
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DTCC and the Trade Information The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) provides post trade services
Warehouse like clearing, settlement and also acts as a custodian of securities. The Trade
Information Warehouse, regulated by one of DTCC’s subsidiaries, Warehouse Trust
Company LLC, operates and maintains a database for almost all CDS contracts
outstanding in the market and provides weekly reports on its website on the history
of notional amount of contracts outstanding. According to DTCC, since October
2008, the gross notional outstanding for CDS has dropped from $33.56 trillion to
$24.80 trillion in June 2010 for all credit products combined (Figure 13), whereas the
rolling 4 week average increases in volume traded (considering only new trades) has
increased from $5.4 trillion in April 2009 to around $7.7 trillion in Jun 2010 for the
credit market (Figure 14). We review the definitions of gross and net notional in the
grey box on the next page.
Figure 13: Gross Notional outstanding for all credit products Figure 14: Monthly volume (increases) traded for all credit products
$ Trillion. $ Trillion. Rolling 4-week average increases in volume.
34 9.5
32 8.5
30 7.5
28 6.5
26 5.5
24 4.5
Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10
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Notional Outstanding
J.P. Morgan publishes a weekly report on CDS Notional Outstanding, which shows the
gross and net notional outstanding data from DTCC. The data is available for single name
CDS, CDS indices and index tranches. We review the definitions for the gross and net
notional outstanding.
Example: Consider a market where there are only four counterparties and their positions
are given in Table 5. The gross notional outstanding in the market is the sum of all long
protection positions or the sum of all short protection positions in the market which is equal
to $465m. The net notional outstanding considers only the net long or short risk position at
a counterparty level, which in this case would be $35m.
Table 5: Aggregate gross notional and net notional data for multiple counterparties
Gross Notional Gross Notional Net Notional of Net Notional of
of CDS of CDS CDS Protection CDS Protection
Protection Sold Protection Sold Bought
Bought
Counterparty Family A ($150,000,000) $135,000,000 ($15,000,000) -
Counterparty Family B ($175,000,000) $200,000,000 - $25,000,000
Counterparty Family C ($90,000,000) $100,000,000 - $10,000,000
Counterparty Family D ($50,000,000) $30,000,000 ($20,000,000) -
Gross Notional ($465,000,000) $465,000,000
Net Notional ($35,000,000) $35,000,000
Source: J.P. Morgan.
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Appendix
Appendix A: CDS Determinations Committee
The CDS Determinations Committee (DC) is made up of 15 dealer and non-dealer
investors with the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) as the
Secretary and coordinator. The Committee’s purpose is to answer, in a timely
manner, legal and contractual questions about credit derivatives, specifically Credit
Events and Succession Events. The DC also vets and approves the deliverable
obligations list ahead of CDS settlement auctions. If 80% of the members agree on
an issue, the answer is finalised and binding to all CDS contracts. If not, the question
is moved to a three member arbitration panel who will deliver the final answer. The
DC formalises the previous market practice of decision making, in which ISDA
would gather dealers, request feedback from other investors, and debate questions
until consensus answers were determined.
Composition
There are five different Determinations Committees for the different geographical
regions; the Americas, Asia excluding Japan, Japan, Australia-New Zealand and
EMEA (Europe). Each DC has 15 voting members comprised of eight global dealers,
two regional dealers and five non-dealer ISDA members. There is an involved
process of becoming a member and maintaining membership. The rules are designed
to ensure participation in votes and auctions; members are removed from the
committee if they fail to participate in two decisions. Dealers must have certain
amounts of CDS trading volumes to qualify. Non-dealers must have at least $1
billion of assets under management and notional single name CDS exposure of at
least $1 billion.
If there has been a Succession Event the DC will decide the Successor(s). The
Committee will take a minimum of 14 days to review the case before making a
decision.
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Procedures
Any market participant can submit a question to the DC through the ISDA website,
along with the relevant publicly available information needed to review the question.
The questions and submitted documentation are posted on www.isda.org/credit. The
DC Secretary will notify the Committee of the question who then decides whether to
reject, accept, or transfer the question to another region’s DC. If the question is
accepted, the meeting schedule will be posted on the website. The content of the
deliberations is confidential while questions are being reviewed. After votes are
taken, the identity and vote of each member is published along with the result. If the
question obtains an 80% supermajority, the decision of the DC is final. If not,
the question moves into arbitration. In general, Credit Event decisions must be
made in two days and Succession Event decisions in two weeks. The DC has the
ability to vote to extend the timeframe.
Arbitration Panel
If the DC fails to reach an 80% supermajority, the question moves to an External
Review panel, a three member panel of independent experts hired by ISDA to make
binding decisions. For a given question, the independent experts will submit written
arguments to the panel, followed by oral arguments. Within 14 days the decision will
be published unless the DC votes to extend the timeframe. A unanimous vote from
the External Review panel is required to overturn a DC decision that had more than
60% but less than 80% of the votes. Two out of three votes from the External Review
panel are sufficient if the original DC decision had less than 60% of the votes. The
result of voting and an explanation of the decision are published on the ISDA
website. If new information becomes available during the arbitration the DC can take
back the question and decide the matter outside of arbitration.
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While bankruptcy, failure to pay and restructuring constitute credit events for
Standard European and North American Corporates, failure to pay,
repudiation/moratorium and restructuring constitute credit events for Standard
Western European Sovereigns.
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Restructuring Standards
The 2003 ISDA Credit Derivatives Definitions specify four different types of
restructuring standards:
While Standard European Corporates trade with MMR as the restructuring standard,
Standard North American Corporates have NR and Sovereign (both Western
European and European EM) and EM Corporates trade with the Old-R restructuring
standard. We review each of these restructuring standards in this section.
If the protection buyer triggers the contract, the contract is entered into the bucket
corresponding to the maturity of the CDS contract. For each bucket, shown in Table
7, the deliverable obligations are restricted by a maximum maturity corresponding to
that bucket. For example a protection buyer with a CDS contract maturity falling due
within the 2.5 to 5 year bucket will be able to deliver any obligation up to 5 years.
Any contract longer than 20 years will be entered into the >20 year bucket.
These restrictions apply only in the case where the buyer of protection triggers the
contract. If the seller of protection triggers the contract, then anything out to 30 years
is deliverable.
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The reason for limiting the maturity of deliverable obligations is to ensure that the
payout from a restructuring event is economically fairly priced relative to the
underlying bonds. Suppose an investor has three-month protection and a bond which
is due for a principal payment is restructured. The bond price would adjust to reflect
the restructuring. However, there may also be a 25 year bond from the same
company that is trading significantly below the short-dated bond. If the buyer of
protection were able to deliver this longer dated bond into the contract, they would
be at an economic advantage since the two bonds would not be trading at the same
price. This is generally not the case for other credit events such as bankruptcy and
failure to pay, where all bonds tend to price at similar levels irrespective of their
maturity after the credit event.
• First Maturity Bucket: While the first maturity bucket for MMR had an
end date of 2.5 years for other obligations and 5 years for the restructured
obligations, MR has a maturity bucket end date of 2.5 years for all
obligations.
No Restructuring (NR)
Restructurings do not constitute a credit event under the NR restructuring standard.
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The auction administrator will then order the bids they receive from the highest to
lowest and the offers they receive from lowest to highest (Table 9). Any market that
crosses is deemed a tradable market and excluded from the price determination. In
the example in Table 9, dealer D is willing to buy bonds at 45 and Dealer E is willing
to sell at 34. These markets cross and are therefore excluded. In the example in Table
9 (bold) – the first three rows are all excluded. The indicative price is then calculated
using the best half of the remaining valid markets. In our example, five valid markets
remain and the best three are used (shaded).
The IMM (Inside Market Midpoint) is the average of these best markets and is
40.625 in our example.
Table 8: Dealers Submit Bids and Offers … Table 9: … these are ordered from highest bid and lowest offer
Dealer Bids Offers Dealer Bids Offers Dealer
A 39.5 41 D 45 34 E
B 40 42 C 41 39.5 G
C 41 43 H 41 40 F
D 45 47 B 40 41 A
E 32 34 A 39.5 42 B
F 38.75 40 F 38.75 42.75 H
G 38 39.5 G 38 43 C
H 41 42.75 E 32 47 D
Source: J.P. Morgan Source: J.P. Morgan
At this point the auction administrator has the IMM 40.625 as well as the net open
interests. They will publish this on the website (www.creditfixings.com) along with
Table 8 and Table 10.
In order to ensure that dealers do not manipulate the first round of the auction, a
penalty is applied to any dealer who provides a tradeable market in Step 1A against
the net open interests. In our example, the net open interest was to sell bonds, so
dealers D, C and H, who entered tradeable markets are penalised for bidding too
high. (Those offering bonds too low would not be penalised since the net open
interests is to sell bonds and it is reasonable that they should be offering low prices.)
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The penalty applied is equal to the difference between the tradeable price and the
IMM times the notional. This is paid to the auction administrator to pay for the costs
of running the auction. The dealer that is penalised along with the penalty is
published on the website.
Let’s suppose that the bids in Table 11 are submitted as Limit Orders in the Dutch
auction. Note that the dealer bids from step 1A are also entered into the auction in the
original size, with the penalised dealers being entered at the IMM. Since the price of
38.875 is the lowest bid to hoover up the open interest, this is the Final Price. This
Final Price applied to all trades, both CDS and bonds, that traded in the auction.
Table 11: The lowest Bid to clear the Open Interests is the Final Price
Dealer Bid Size
D* 40.625 5
C* 40.625 5
H* 40.625 5
B* 40 5
A* 39.5 5
G 39.625 75
F 39.375 80
C 39.125 100
A 38.875 70
F* 38.75 5
C 38.375 10
Source: J.P. Morgan, *Indicates bid carried over from Step 1
Note that in the case where the open interest is to sell bonds, the Final Price is capped
below at 0 and above at half the maximum bid-offer above the IMM. This ensures
that bonds are not artificially bid up in the second step of the auction in order to
achieve a high recovery rate.
Having seen how the auction process works, we now look at how it can be used
through some examples. As we will show in the examples, the auction fulfils the two
aims that we highlighted earlier:
1. Facilitate cash settlement of CDS contracts
2. Preserve the economics of physical settlement
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Example 3: Investor has no CDS position but owns bonds that they want to sell
Suppose an investor has a bond position which they wish to sell, but no CDS. If the
open interest in the auction after the first step is to buy bonds then they can submit
limit orders via their dealer to sell bonds. The price they will receive will be the final
price of the auction.
For a restructuring credit event where the maturity limitation is applicable, such
auctions are held for each bucket separately and each bucket has its own recovery.
In the next section, Appendix D, we look at the Thomson restructuring and the
lessons learnt from its auction.
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Our overall view is that the process worked well and that the protocols improved
rather than detracted from the market’s ability to settle CDS contracts following the
credit event. By focusing liquidity at a single point in time, the market was able to
absorb the large net open interest to sell bonds despite thin trading volumes in the
deliverable obligation prior to the auction.
Nevertheless, we think there are many lessons to be learnt from the Thomson
restructuring event and we highlight the areas where we believe investors in CDS
need to be aware of as well as the potential risk areas for future restructuring events.
The final recovery rates for the three buckets were 96.25, 65.125 and 63.25
respectively for the 2.5y, 5y and 7.5y buckets. These recovery rates differed from the
recovery expectation prior to the auction as well as the initial recovery set during the
first round of the auction. This was due to the demand and supply dynamics of the
auction.
Below we highlight some of the main lessons learnt from the restructuring credit
event and the auction process. Many of these are not new or particular to
restructuring events, but were merely brought to the fore by the Thomson event.
Lessons learnt before the credit Maturity Matters – Be aware of the CDS maturity date and whether there are
event deliverable bonds maturing before this date.
One of the most important lessons from the restructuring event was that maturity
matters. This was not something new to CDS contracts, but was brought to the fore
following the credit event. Since a restructuring credit event invokes a maturity
limitation to CDS contracts, where the recovery rate of the CDS is determined by the
bonds maturing before the maturity of the CDS, investors hedging bonds or loans
with CDS need to be aware that their CDS hedges need to cover the maturity of the
bond they are hedging. Additionally, investors that do not hold bonds also need to be
aware of the bonds maturing before the maturity date of their contract. While
hedging longer dated bonds with shorter CDS may be cost effective, it may not offer
protection against restructuring credit events.
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Coupons and Upfronts – CDS coupons will determine the present value of the trade
and the annuity or Jump-to-Default risk. Investors with high upfront values may wish
to consider monetising the upfront and resetting the position at a higher coupon.
CDS contracts that trade away from their coupons can have large positive or negative
upfront values. Investors owning these contracts have large annuity risk, or Jump-to-
Default risk. An investor who has bought protection and is very much in the money
could lose money from a credit event if the recovery rate is such that the payout from
the auction is less than present value of the contract. In Table 12 we show some
upfront amounts assuming a 30bp coupon and differing post auction CDS market
spreads.
Assuming, a protection buyer has a 30bp coupon Jun-13 contract and he expects the
post auction spread to be 800bp and the recovery in the auction to be 75%. Table 12
shows that the upfront on the contract after the auction would be 22.12% i.e. his
contract would be worth 22.12%, whereas in the auction his contract would be worth
25% based on a recovery assumption of 75%. So based on these assumptions and
calculations, it is profitable for the protection buyer to trigger the contract and
receive 25% of the notional.
Table 12: Upfront Assuming 30bp Coupon, 40% recovery and post auction spread
400 600 800 1000
20-Jun-10 2.58% 3.93% 5.24% 6.53%
20-Dec-10 4.32% 6.53% 8.65% 10.68%
20-Jun-11 5.99% 8.97% 11.78% 14.44%
20-Dec-11 7.58% 11.27% 14.70% 17.88%
20-Jun-12 9.11% 13.43% 17.38% 21.00%
20-Dec-12 10.56% 15.46% 19.86% 23.82%
20-Jun-13 11.93% 17.34% 22.12% 26.35%
20-Dec-13 13.24% 19.11% 24.21% 28.66%
20-Jun-14 14.48% 20.75% 26.12% 30.73%
20-Dec-14 15.66% 22.29% 27.89% 32.61%
20-Jun-15 16.78% 23.72% 29.49% 34.29%
20-Dec-15 17.84% 25.06% 30.97% 35.82%
20-Jun-16 18.85% 26.31% 32.33% 37.19%
20-Dec-16 19.80% 27.47% 33.57% 38.43%
20-Jun-17 20.70% 28.55% 34.70% 39.54%
20-Dec-17 21.55% 29.55% 35.74% 40.54%
20-Jun-18 22.36% 30.48% 36.69% 41.44%
20-Dec-18 23.12% 31.36% 37.56% 42.25%
Source: J.P. Morgan
Lessons learnt after the credit Buyer and Seller triggers matter – Restructuring is not a hard credit event and
event recovery can be different if the buyer or seller triggers
In a bankruptcy or failure to pay credit event, all CDS contracts trigger and enter the
auction automatically following the “Big Bang” protocol. On a restructuring event
however an optional trigger exists, which allows either the buyer or the seller to
trigger. If the buyer triggers, the maturity limitation applies, however if the seller
triggers, no maturity limitations apply and the trade enters the auction for the longer
dated bucket.
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Liquidity – liquidity exists to close out positions prior to an auction, but can at
times be limited.
CDS liquidity following the announcement of a credit event exists and can be used to
close out of contracts. In the case of Thomson, CDS traded throughout the process
generally with a 2-4% bid/offer for the 5-year and 3-5% bid/offer at the 1-year.
Investors who did not want to go through the auction process were therefore able to
close out of their positions.
Lessons learnt during the Open Interests and Buyers versus Sellers – Liquidity focus on the auction day
auction can be a double-edged sword
The CDS auction focuses liquidity on a single day for investors looking to buy and
sell bonds and loans of the defaulted company. This focus of liquidity can be very
beneficial as all buyer and sellers meet at a single point. At the same time however,
large interest to buy or sell bonds at a single point in time can also move the market
suddenly. Investors using the auction should think about how these demand and
supply imbalances could affect the final recovery.
Initial and Final Recovery – Initial and Final recovery can differ due to the net
open interests
In the Thomson auction, the initial recovery differed from the final recovery by 17
points for the longer dated bucket, 15 points in the middle bucket and 5 points in the
shortest dated bucket. While these are large, they are not unprecedented; for
example, the BRADBI auction settled 9 points above the initial price while Lyondell
was 8 points below the initial recovery. This risk is mitigated for investors who have
bonds or loans to deliver into the auction, as they are indifferent to recovery, but is a
risk for investors looking to cash settle their positions.
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Dealer
Structured Structured
Credit Credit
CDS Market Vehicle Investor
long risk
short risk short risk
long risk
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38
Saul Doctor Europe Credit Research
(44-20) 7325-3699 01 July 2010
saul.doctor@jpmorgan.com
Harpreet Singh
(91-22) 6157-3279
harpreet.x.singh@jpmorgan.com
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39
Saul Doctor Europe Credit Research
(44-20) 7325-3699 01 July 2010
saul.doctor@jpmorgan.com
Harpreet Singh
(91-22) 6157-3279
harpreet.x.singh@jpmorgan.com
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40