DUTERTES FOREIGN POLICY &

THE PHILIPPINES MARITIME SECURITY

FRANCISCO ASHLEY L. ACEDILLO
Former Congressman, Magdalo Party-list
 The Duterte Admins Foreign Policy Statements /
Actions
On the international front and community of nations, let me reiterate
that the Republic of the Philippines will honor treaties and
international obligations. (Inauguration Speech, 30 June 2016,
Malacanan Palace)

!
We also endeavor to develop and corporate partnerships with
nations sharing common interests and concerns with the
Philippines; maintain and sustain bilateral and multilateral
consultations and dialogues. (First SONA, 25 July 2016))

!
We will continue to expand cooperation on human assistance,
disaster response, maritime security and counter terrorism. We shall
deepen security dialogues with other nations to build greater
understanding and cooperation. (First SONA, 25 July 2016)
 The Duterte Admins Foreign Policy Statements /
Actions
With regard to the West Philippine Sea otherwise known as [South]
China Sea, we strongly affirm and respect the outcome of the case
before the Permanent Court of Arbitration as an important
contribution to the ongoing efforts to pursue the peaceful resolution
and management of our disputes. (First SONA, 25 July 2016)

!
In this venue, your honors, in this venue, I announce my separation
from the United States. Both in military, not maybe social, but
economics also. America has lost. I've realigned myself in your
ideological flow and maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to (President
Vladimir) Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the
world - China, Philippines and Russia. It's the only way. (Speech at
the Great Hall of the People attended by Chinese Vice Premier Zhang
Gaoli and Chinese businessmen, 20 October 2016)
 The Duterte Admins Foreign Policy Statements /
Actions
The Philippines welcomes the issuance today, 12 July 2016, of the Award by
the ArbitralTribunal constituted by the Permanent Court of Arbitration under
Annex VII of the 1982United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
(UNCLOS) on the arbitrationproceedings initiated by the Philippines with regard
to the South China Sea. Our experts are studying the Award with the care and
thoroughness that this significantarbitral outcome deserves. In the meantime,
we call on all those concerned to exerciserestraint and sobriety. The
Philippines strongly affirms its respect for this milestone decision as an
importantcontribution to ongoing efforts in addressing disputes in the
South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Thedecision upholds international law,
particularly the 1982 UNCLOS. The Philippines reiterates its abiding
commitment to efforts to pursue the peacefulresolution and management of
disputes with a view to promoting and enhancing peaceand stability in the
region. (Statement of Sec. Perfecto Yasay on PCA ruling on the West Philippine
Sea arbitration case, 12 July 2016)
 The Duterte Admins Foreign Policy Statements /
Actions
I would serve notice to you now that this will be the last military exercise.
You have the EDCA. Well, forget it. If I stay here long enough, one day
that EDCA will, if its an executive agreement, then I will just (Duterte,
making a sweeping gesture with his hands). I want, maybe in the next two
years,my country to be free of the presence of foreign military troops.
The Philippines can live without the U.S. (September 2016)

!
President Rodrigo Roa Duterte wishes to extend his warm congratulations
to Mr. Donald Trump on his recent electoral victory as President of the
United States of America He (Duterte) looks forward to working with
the incoming administration for enhanced Philippines-US relations
anchored on mutual respect, mutual benefit and shared commitment
to democratic ideals and the rule of law. (PRRD Statement as relayed
by Sec. Martin Andanar on Pres. Elect Donald Trumps Electoral Triumph,
09 November 2016)
 The Duterte Admins Foreign Policy Statements /
Actions

Both countries (Philippines and China) are fully capable of working

together for mutual beneficial cooperation, as we remain committed to
settling disputes peacefully in full adherence of international
law. (October 2016)

!
You know, if China and Russia would decide to create a new order, I
will be the first to join. (November 2016)
!
We welcome our Russian friends. Anytime you want to dock here for
anything, for play, for replenish supplies or maybe our ally to protect us.
Friends, long livethat's from the heart. (Welcome speech before RADM
Eduard Mikhailov, head of the Flotilla of the Russian Navy Pacific Fleet, in
their visit to Manila, January 2017)
 The Duterte Admins Foreign Policy Statements /
Actions
!
"What we are doing is that we set aside (the dispute) and we
foster the other aspects of our relations like trade, investment
even infrastructure development, cooperation in certain areas
that we could do without violating or undermining our
respective rights. Thats our strategy now, and we have
somehow achieved some breakthroughs along that line. In fact,
we can see now that our fishermen have free access in that
Scarborough Shoal because of the confidence building
measures that we have adopted in the meantime. (Statement
of Sec. Perfecto Yasay at the conclusion of Chinas AIIB Pres. Ji
Linqun Dec.12-14, 2016 visit to Manila)
 The Duterte Admins Foreign Policy Statements /
Actions
In the play of politics now, I will set aside the arbitral ruling I
will not impose anything on China. Why? Because the politics
here in Southeast Asia is changing. Tayo may (arbitral ruling)
gusto nila i-push ko. Bakit ako maghanap ng away? Ipadala ko
Marines? We have no might, not this time. We will have to take
this up, but not now. But I will bring this up. Alam ng
ambassador (of China) dito. I will bring this up someday, during
my time. (December 17, 2016)

!
What do I do with Scarborough Shoal? Swim there every day?
Send soldiers there? Let's start with domestic problems
first.... Maganda na economy, it's hitting 7, so wag na nating
sirain.
 The Duterte Admins Foreign Policy Statements /
Actions
Even if I wanted to extract everything we do not have the
capital. Even the (oil) rig and everything we cant afford it. I
would consider sharing it. (March 23, 2016)

!
Once the Chinese start exploring, putting rigs there,
well talk to them. (Sec. Delfin Lorenzana, quoting
Duterte as saying to him, March 2016)
 Areas of Impact of Policy Statements / Actions
Multilateral and bilateral treaties in general

Effect of the PCA ruling on the Philippines in general

The nature of our bilateral relations with China

The nature of our bilateral relations with Russia

The nature of our bilateral relations with Japan

 Areas of Impact of Policy Statements / Actions
The nature of our bilateral relations with the U.S.

The prospect of the 1951 PHL-U.S. MDT and its impact

on the 1997 US Visiting Forces Agreement (and the PHL-
U.S. Balikatan Exercise) as well as the 2014 Enhanced
Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA)

Impact on our maritime security interests in the KIG,

Recto Bank, Scarborough Shoal and Benham Rise
 What is MARITIME SECURITY?
Maritime Security - is the protection of sovereignty and maritime resources,
support to free and open seaborne commerce, and countering weapons
proliferation, terrorism, transnational crime, piracy, illegal exploitation of the
maritime environment, and unlawful seaborne immigration (A Cooperative
Strategy for 21st Century Seapower, U.S. definition)

Maritime Security - is the combination of preventive and responsive measures

to protect the maritime domain against threats and intentional unlawful acts
and preserve the freedom of the seas, facilitate and defend commerce, and
maintain good governance at sea (European definition formulated by the Wise
Pen Team Final Report, as quoted from the Institute for Strategic, Political,
Security and Economic Consultancy (ISPSW))

So far, the policy pronouncements of PRRD and his administration have

tended to undermine the countrys maritime security in particular, and our
national security as a whole
 The Ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration

1. Historic Rights and the Nine-Dash Line

(a) The Tribunal concluded that China historic rights to
resources in the waters of the South China Sea were
extinguished to the extent they were incompatible with
the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) provided for under
UNCLOS;

(b) The Tribunal also concluded that there was no

evidence that China had historically exercised
exclusive control over the waters or their resources;
there was no legal basis for China to claim historic
rights to resources within the sea areas falling within
the nine-dash line
ASIAN FLASHPOINT
CLAIMANT COUNTRIES IN WPS

Philippines-9 !
China -7!
Vietnam -22 !
Malaysia -5 !
Taiwan -1 !
Brunei -0
 The Ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration

2. Status of Features

(a) The Tribunal noted that the reefs have been heavily modified by
land reclamation and construction;

(b) The Tribunal noted that the current presence of official

personnel on many of the features is dependent on outside
support and not reflective of the capacity of the features, concluding
that such transient use does not constitute inhabitation by a stable
community and that all of the historical economic activity had been
extractive;

(c) None of the features claimed by China was capable of

generating an EEZ and, without delimiting a boundary, the Tribunal
declared that certain sea areas are within the EEZ of the
Philippines because those areas are not overlapped by any possible
entitlement of China
 EZ Old structure
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ISLETS OF KALAYAAN MUNICIPALITY
 The Ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration

3. Lawfulness of Chinese Actions

Having found that certain areas are within the EEZ of the Philippines,
the Tribunal found that China had violated the Philippines sovereign
rights in its EEZ by:

(a) interfering with Philippine fishing and petroleum exploration;

(b) constructing artificial islands; and

(c) failing to prevent Chinese fishermen from fishing in the zone;

(d) Also, fishermen from the Philippines (like those from China) had
traditional fishing rights at Scarborough Shoal and that China had
interfered with these rights in restricting access;

(e) Further, Chinese law enforcement vessels had unlawfully created

a serious risk of collision when they physically obstructed
Philippine vessels
 The Ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration

4. Harm to Marine Environment

(a) The Tribunal found that China had caused severe harm
to the coral reef environment and violated its obligation
to preserve and protect fragile ecosystems and the habitat
of depleted, threatened, or endangered species;

(b) The Tribunal also found that Chinese authorities were

aware that Chinese fishermen have harvested endangered
sea turtles, coral, and giant clams on a substantial scale in
the South China Sea (using methods that inflict severe
damage on the coral reef environment) and had not fulfilled
their obligations to stop such activities
 The Ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration

5. Aggravation of Dispute

(a) The Tribunal found that it lacked jurisdiction to consider the

implications of a stand-off between Philippine Marines and Chinese
naval and law enforcement vessels at Second Thomas (Ayungin)
Shoal, holding that this dispute involved military activities and was
therefore excluded from compulsory settlement;

(b) The Tribunal, however, found that Chinas recent large-scale land
reclamation and construction of artificial islands was incompatible
with the obligations on a State during dispute resolution proceedings,
insofar as China has inflicted irreparable harm to the marine
environment, built a large artificial island in the PhilippinesEEZ, and
destroyed evidence of the natural condition of features in the South
China Sea that formed part of the Parties dispute
 National Security Risks Posed by
PRRDs Foreign Policy
Tends to undermine the system of security alliances
between the United States and other Asian nations,
rendering the Philippines as the weak link in that chain

The persistent presence of U.S. joint military forces

[throughout the Asia-Pacific] for the last 70 years
has safeguarded the rules-based international order
a system that continues to benefit all nations
including China by setting the conditions for
stability, economic prosperity, and peace. (From a
U.S. Pacific Command Admiral)
 National Security Risks Posed by
PRRDs Foreign Policy
The lack of coherence (at best) or even the seeming
subservience of his foreign policy to China (at worst)
imperils our continuing maritime interests in the West PH
Sea (for marine life, petroleum & natural gas, freedom of
navigation and overflight, and strategic positioning)

This so-called pivot to China - instead of pursuing

an independent foreign policy as Pres. Duterte
claims - is actually creating a Finlandization effect
on our foreign policy (Author)
 National Security Risks Posed by
PRRDs Foreign Policy
By not challenging Chinas militarization and de facto
control of the South China Sea, the Philippines faces the
likelihood of becoming a mere spectator in its drive to
establish the first island chain
 AFP Vision 2028: A World-class Armed Forc
Source of National Pride

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Armed Forces of the Philippines
AFP Core Values: Honor, Service, Patr
Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, J2
 AFP Vision 2028: A World-class Armed Forc
Source of National Pride

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Armed Forces of the Philippines

AFP Core Values: Honor, Service, Patr
Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, J2
 National Security Risks Posed by
PRRDs Foreign Policy
By not challenging Chinas militarization and de facto
control of the South China Sea, the Philippines faces the
likelihood of becoming a mere spectator in its drive to
establish the first island chain

> Once the first island chain is

firmly established, China can then
venture outward into the western
Pacific to set up the second
island chain sandwiching the
Philippines in a cabbage strategy
and denying both access and areas
of operation virtually to all countries
(the so-called A2/AD strategy)
DUTERTES FOREIGN POLICY &
THE PHILIPPINES MARITIME SECURITY
FRANCISCO ASHLEY L. ACEDILLO
Former Congressman, Magdalo Party-list

QUESTIONS?