VOL 1 NO 1 SPORTS MATHEMATICS October 25, 2016

SPORTS MATHEMATICS
Mathematical analysis of one of the most popular events
By: Neo Shin

200M sprint is one of the oldest olympic event having its

first ocial olympic record in Paris 1900. Over the years
athletes have been getting stronger and faster to shorten
its time and set the new world record. In this article we
are going to mathematically analyze the 200M records
from London 1948 to recently finished Rio 2016. As Rio
2016 closed down, anticipation for Tokyo 2020 is already
rising. We are also going to look at some predictions for
future events and more.

Allyson Felix and Jeneba Tarmoh race towards 200M at London

What is the trend?

According to the graph (on the left)
you can tell that the records for the
200M sprint for Men and Women
are genuinely improving. This is
clearly shown by the the linear
regression line on he graph.
However If we look into the slope of
the two graph (Men: -0.01937

Scatterplot graph of men and women 200M sprint from 1948 to 2016

Women: -0.03378) You can see that there is a 0.01441 dierence between Women/men and that
womens 200M sprint is making more improvement. To conclude on the explanation of slope, the
slope in this context means the average amount of improvement that is being made every year. For
example mens 200m is decreasing their time by 0.01937 each year and womens 200m is

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decreasing their time by 0.03378. To translate the mathematical term, It can be defined as the rate
of change.

To understand the y intercept we must look at the line of best fit in this graph (above) since the line
of best fit also contains the y intercept. The line of best fit is made to distribute the points to both
sides as evenly as possible. This is not an calculated average value but by doing this you can tell
what number we have to input for B in the equation y=mx+b. To put this into context, the y is the
expected mean value of when x is equal to 0. This simply is the average value of the runners time in
all feasible value. Like i mentioned earlier this is not the calculated average of all y values, but the
two values are dierent since the line of best fit is distributing the plots to both sides which give a
slightly dierent value from just averaging all y values.

The general equation of the graph is, Men: y = -0.01937x + 20.69 and Women: y = -0.03378x +
23.63. With this equation you can mathematically get the prediction for future results. However
readers should realize that this equation was based o of the line of best fit. This means that the
actual points might not be on the line of best fit and they
shouldnt be since not all results are mathematically
Years (From Time for Time for
1948 Men Women calculated. Therefore putting 76 to this equation might get
Representing (Seconds) (Seconds) you close to what the result might look like in 2024 but is
0) most likely not accurate to real life.

0 21.1 24.4
In context the domain is simply the date from 1948 to
4 20.7 23.7
2016 expressed in values that present 1948 as 0 and
8 20.6 23.4 adding 4 each year. The domain for both men and women
12 20.5 24 are equal since they both had the same about of olympic
16 20.3 23 games, therefore the domain is 0 x 68 or x is greater
or equal to 0 and less then or equal to 68. However the
20 19.83 22.58
range is dierent. For women the latest time is 24.4
24 20 22.4 seconds and the fastest time is 21.34. This makes the
28 20.23 22.37 range of the scatter plot 21.34 x 24.4. Same for men
the latest time is 21.1 and the fastest time is 19.3. This
32 20.19 22.03
makes the range of the scatter plot 19.3 x 21.1. This
36 19.8 21.81 means that from 1948 to 2016, for women you cannot be
40 19.75 21.34 slower then 24.4 and faster then 21.34. Equally for men,
44 20.01 21.81 during 1948 and 2016 you cannot be slower then 21.1
and faster then 19.3. If we were to look at the domain and
48 19.32 22.12
range of the line of best fit in the scatter plot, the domain
52 20.09 22.27 would be 0 x Infinite, the range for women would be
56 19.79 22.05 23.63 x infinite and range for men would be 20.69 x
infinite. However this obviously does not make sense
60 19.3 21.74
since no one can every be fast enough to go past 0.

64 19.32 21.88

68 19.78 21.78

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Whats next? Predictions for future 200m.

Rio De Janeiro 2016 has just been completed and already the hype for
Tokyo 2020 is rising. Weve seen some interesting performances by Japan
in Rio and we are all anticipated for the future happening but whats next
for 200M. According to our graph and the line of best fit the line seems to
be going down, which means that genuinely our time for 200m is
decreasing. But what could be the winning time of 200M in Tokyo. First
lets mathematically approach this. We already know the equation
(Women: y = -0.03378x + 23.63/ Men: y = -0.01937x + 20.69) so we just
have to input x to find out the prediction Right? Lets follow this method
and input 70 into x. This gives us 21.2654 seconds for women and
19.3341 seconds for men. Mathematically this is correct but for men it
hasnt been looking so great for the past 3 olympics. After Bolt cracked
the legendary score of 19.3 the time seems to be at the rise. The point is
that although these numbers are a mathematically correct and is a
accurate prediction, the physical world is always dierent.

To continue the conversation on prediction, according to mathematics and the current situation. It
seems that women are slowly but surely catching up with men. This sparks the question of when
(mathematically) will women catch up with men, or when will the two intersection points meet. To do
this we must look at the two equations (Men: y= -0.01937x + 20.69 and Women y= -0.03378x +
23.63) and try to equalize them and get x. In equation it looks like this:

-0.1937x + 20.69 = -0.03378x +23.63

-0.1937x +0.03378 = 23.63 - 20.60

0.01441x = 2.94

x = 2.94/0.01441

x= 204.02418265

What all this math means is that when x is

inputed in both equations (doesnt matter
which, same answer) it will give us a time (in
seconds) where women and men both equally
achieve. This is y = -0.01937(204.02418265) +
20.69 or y= -0.03378(204.02418265) + 23.63
would result in y = 16.7380. That means
16.7380 is the record for when women and
men both have the same time. Also Hand drawn graph that shows the intersection point of the two linear functions

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204.02418265 translates into years and if we find the sum of this value and our starting year (1948)
you can see that in 2152 both men and women will have the same record. Now with this information
we have conducted a graph (above) that shows where the 2 linear functions above intersect. To
finalize this process of prediction, the linear equation to verify all this math is -0.01937x + 20.69 =
16.7380 for men and -0.03378x +23.63 for women. With all this math and predictions I want to
clarify to our readers that this is a purely mathematical prediction that does not take account of
athletes ability and the gender capabilities of both male and female athletes. However I think this
was a interesting experiment. To conclude this article, 200M is a short but exciting event that has
millions of people watching and cheering around the world. To put this exhilarating event and get a
mathematical perspective on it was certainly interesting. We saw trends and dierent types of graph
that enhanced our understanding of the history of 200M. The predictions were also an interesting
approach to look at the future of the 200m race. All in all this was a fun approach to look at the
200M olympic and I just cant wait for 2020!