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Produk Sepeda Anak

Periode Demand Perusahaan Demand Pesaing 1 Demand Pesaing 2 Periode


1 128923 68330 21917 1
2 63386 33595 10776 2
3 137518 72886 23378 3
4 208774 110652 35491 4
5 115098 61003 19566 5
6 104917 55607 17836 6
7 39663 21022 6743 7
8 163803 86817 27846 8
9 48997 25969 8330 9
10 156026 82695 26524 10
11 159700 84642 27149 11
12 203619 107920 34615 12
13 123600 65509 21012 13
14 182728 96847 31063 14
15 240684 127564 40915 15
16 168339 89221 28617 16
17 217734 115401 37014 17
18 201857 106986 34315 18
19 78852 41793 13405 19
20 182655 96809 31051 20
21 224757 119123 38208 21
22 240391 127409 40866 22
23 286413 151801 48689 23
24 341981 181252 58135 24
25 194475 103073 33060 25
26 245885 130321 41800 26
27 300882 159470 51149 27
28 217462 115257 36968 28
29 247972 131427 42154 29
30 323193 171295 54941 30
31 281364 149125 47831 31
32 346511 183653 58905 32
33 289824 153609 49269 33
34 249808 132400 42466 34
35 271518 143907 46157 35
36 293389 155498 49875 36
37 313361 166227 53316 37
38 342022 181274 58142 38
39 305806 162079 51986 39
40 326417 173003 55489 40
41 432623 229293 73544 41
42 323132 171262 54931 42
43 368271 195186 62604 43
44 393085 208338 66823 44
45 334299 177181 56829 45
46 271690 143998 46186 46
47 357234 189337 60728 47
48 312142 165438 53063 48
49 274669 145577 46693 49
50 341214 180846 58005 50
51 404995 214650 68847 51
52 297958 157920 50652 52
53 342659 181612 58251 53
54 380477 201656 64679 54
55 400138 212076 68022 55
56 412381 218565 70103 56
57 470604 249423 80000 57
58 419773 222483 71359 58
59 451719 239414 76790 59
60 390071 206740 66310 60
Produk Pompa Sepeda Produk Sepeda Anak (+NPM x
Demand Perusahaan Demand Pesaing 1 Demand Pesaing 2 NO
237430 46946 95513 Harga Produk
324805 64222 130662 Periode
164346 32495 66113 1
316066 62494 127147 2
91123 18018 36657 3
294124 58156 118320 4
291143 57566 117121 5
220736 43645 88797 6
317064 62691 127548 7
308616 61021 124150 8
236953 46852 95321 9
243994 48244 98154 10
299126 59145 120332 11
287612 56868 115700 12
253139 50052 101832 13
382459 75621 153855 14
269471 53281 108402 15
326878 64632 131496 16
377399 74621 151819 17
306885 60679 123453 18
407146 80503 163786 19
306213 60546 123183 20
431460 85310 173567 21
307818 60863 123829 22
347299 68670 139711 23
348768 68960 140302 24
356609 70510 143456 25
395106 78122 158943 26
461077 91166 185481 27
415653 82185 167208 28
447465 88475 180005 29
388494 76815 156283 30
389764 77066 156794 31
478060 94524 192313 32
460086 90970 185082 33
439006 86802 176602 34
454269 89820 182742 35
502386 99334 202099 36
494855 97845 199069 37
405821 80241 163253 38
362978 71770 146018 39
504557 99763 202972 40
471498 93227 189673 41
475795 94076 191402 42
487013 96294 195915 43
512125 101259 206017 44
498852 98635 200677 45
416501 82352 167549 46
490569 96997 197345 47
601794 118989 242088 48
520921 102999 209555 49
512704 101374 206249 50
527617 104323 212249 51
503007 99457 202349 52
568471 112400 228683 53
498839 98632 200672 54
614466 121495 247186 55
607172 120052 244252 56
585118 115692 235380 57
499535 98770 200952 58
59
60
Produk Sepeda Anak (+NPM x 60) Produk Pompa Sepeda (+NPM x 60)
Perusahaan Pesaing 1 Pesaing 2 NO Perusahaan Pesaing 1
450,000 475,000 475,000 Harga Produk 65,000 75,000
Demand (Data G) PIG P2G Periode Demand (Data C) PIC
129523 68930 22517 1 238030 47546
63986 34195 11376 2 325405 64822
138118 73486 23978 3 164946 33095
209374 111252 36091 4 316666 63094
115698 61603 20166 5 91723 18618
105517 56207 18436 6 294724 58756
40263 21622 7343 7 291743 58166
164403 87417 28446 8 221336 44245
49597 26569 8930 9 317664 63291
156626 83295 27124 10 309216 61621
160300 85242 27749 11 237553 47452
204219 108520 35215 12 244594 48844
124200 66109 21612 13 299726 59745
183328 97447 31663 14 288212 57468
241284 128164 41515 15 253739 50652
168939 89821 29217 16 383059 76221
218334 116001 37614 17 270071 53881
202457 107586 34915 18 327478 65232
79452 42393 14005 19 377999 75221
183255 97409 31651 20 307485 61279
225357 119723 38808 21 407746 81103
240991 128009 41466 22 306813 61146
287013 152401 49289 23 432060 85910
342581 181852 58735 24 308418 61463
195075 103673 33660 25 347899 69270
246485 130921 42400 26 349368 69560
301482 160070 51749 27 357209 71110
218062 115857 37568 28 395706 78722
248572 132027 42754 29 461677 91766
323793 171895 55541 30 416253 82785
281964 149725 48431 31 448065 89075
347111 184253 59505 32 389094 77415
290424 154209 49869 33 390364 77666
250408 133000 43066 34 478660 95124
272118 144507 46757 35 460686 91570
293989 156098 50475 36 439606 87402
313961 166827 53916 37 454869 90420
342622 181874 58742 38 502986 99934
306406 162679 52586 39 495455 98445
327017 173603 56089 40 406421 80841
433223 229893 74144 41 363578 72370
323732 171862 55531 42 505157 100363
368871 195786 63204 43 472098 93827
393685 208938 67423 44 476395 94676
334899 177781 57429 45 487613 96894
272290 144598 46786 46 512725 101859
357834 189937 61328 47 499452 99235
312742 166038 53663 48 417101 82952
275269 146177 47293 49 491169 97597
341814 181446 58605 50 602394 119589
405595 215250 69447 51 521521 103599
298558 158520 51252 52 513304 101974
343259 182212 58851 53 528217 104923
381077 202256 65279 54 503607 100057
400738 212676 68622 55 569071 113000
412981 219165 70703 56 499439 99232
471204 250023 80600 57 615066 122095
420373 223083 71959 58 607772 120652
452319 240014 77390 59 585718 116292
390671 207340 66910 60 500135 99370
NPM x 60) Konversi ke Nilai Uang
Pesaing 2 Periode Sepeda Perusahaan Sepeda Pesaing
75,000 1 Rp58,285,350,000 Rp43,437,325,000
P2C 2 Rp28,793,700,000 Rp21,646,225,000
96113 3 Rp62,153,100,000 Rp46,295,400,000
131262 4 Rp94,218,300,000 Rp69,987,925,000
66713 5 Rp52,064,100,000 Rp38,840,275,000
127747 6 Rp47,482,650,000 Rp35,455,425,000
37257 7 Rp18,118,350,000 Rp13,758,375,000
118920 8 Rp73,981,350,000 Rp55,034,925,000
117721 9 Rp22,318,650,000 Rp16,862,025,000
89397 10 Rp70,481,700,000 Rp52,449,025,000
128148 11 Rp72,135,000,000 Rp53,670,725,000
124750 12 Rp91,898,550,000 Rp68,274,125,000
95921 13 Rp55,890,000,000 Rp41,667,475,000
98754 14 Rp82,497,600,000 Rp61,327,250,000
120932 15 Rp108,577,800,000 Rp80,597,525,000
116300 16 Rp76,022,550,000 Rp56,543,050,000
102432 17 Rp98,250,300,000 Rp72,967,125,000
154455 18 Rp91,105,650,000 Rp67,687,975,000
109002 19 Rp35,753,400,000 Rp26,789,050,000
132096 20 Rp82,464,750,000 Rp61,303,500,000
152419 21 Rp101,410,650,000 Rp75,302,225,000
124053 22 Rp108,445,950,000 Rp80,500,625,000
164386 23 Rp129,155,850,000 Rp95,802,750,000
123783 24 Rp154,161,450,000 Rp114,278,825,000
174167 25 Rp87,783,750,000 Rp65,233,175,000
124429 26 Rp110,918,250,000 Rp82,327,475,000
140311 27 Rp135,666,900,000 Rp100,614,025,000
140902 28 Rp98,127,900,000 Rp72,876,875,000
144056 29 Rp111,857,400,000 Rp83,020,975,000
159543 30 Rp145,706,850,000 Rp108,032,100,000
186081 31 Rp126,883,800,000 Rp94,124,100,000
167808 32 Rp156,199,950,000 Rp115,785,050,000
180605 33 Rp130,690,800,000 Rp96,937,050,000
156883 34 Rp112,683,600,000 Rp83,631,350,000
157394 35 Rp122,453,100,000 Rp90,850,400,000
192913 36 Rp132,295,050,000 Rp98,122,175,000
185682 37 Rp141,282,450,000 Rp104,852,925,000
177202 38 Rp154,179,900,000 Rp114,292,600,000
183342 39 Rp137,882,700,000 Rp102,250,875,000
202699 40 Rp147,157,650,000 Rp109,103,700,000
199669 41 Rp194,950,350,000 Rp144,417,575,000
163853 42 Rp145,679,400,000 Rp108,011,675,000
146618 43 Rp165,991,950,000 Rp123,020,250,000
203572 44 Rp177,158,250,000 Rp131,271,475,000
190273 45 Rp150,704,550,000 Rp111,724,750,000
192002 46 Rp122,530,500,000 Rp90,907,400,000
196515 47 Rp161,025,300,000 Rp119,350,875,000
206617 48 Rp140,733,900,000 Rp104,357,975,000
201277 49 Rp123,871,050,000 Rp91,898,250,000
168149 50 Rp153,816,300,000 Rp114,024,225,000
197945 51 Rp182,517,750,000 Rp135,231,075,000
242688 52 Rp134,351,100,000 Rp99,641,700,000
210155 53 Rp154,466,550,000 Rp114,504,925,000
206849 54 Rp171,484,650,000 Rp127,079,125,000
212849 55 Rp180,332,100,000 Rp133,616,550,000
202949 56 Rp185,841,450,000 Rp137,687,300,000
229283 57 Rp212,041,800,000 Rp157,045,925,000
201272 58 Rp189,167,850,000 Rp140,144,950,000
247786 59 Rp203,543,550,000 Rp150,766,900,000
244852 60 Rp175,801,950,000 Rp130,268,750,000
235980 Jumlah Rp7,193,447,100,000 Rp5,337,505,650,000
201552 Proporsi 0.82 0.83
Konversi ke Nilai Uang
Pompa Angin Perusahaan Pompa Angin Pesaing Agregat Perusahaan Agregat Pesaing
Rp15,471,950,000 Rp10,774,425,000 Rp73,757,300,000 Rp54,211,750,000
Rp21,151,325,000 Rp14,706,300,000 Rp49,945,025,000Agregat Perusahaan
Rp36,352,525,000
Rp10,721,490,000 Rp7,485,600,000 Rp72,874,590,000 Rp53,781,000,000
Rp300,000,000,000
Rp20,583,290,000 Rp14,313,075,000 Rp114,801,590,000 Rp84,301,000,000
Rp5,961,995,000 Rp4,190,625,000 Rp58,026,095,000
Rp250,000,000,000 Rp43,030,900,000
Rp19,157,060,000 Rp13,325,700,000 Rp66,639,710,000 Rp48,781,125,000
Rp18,963,295,000 Rp200,000,000,000
Rp13,191,525,000 Rp37,081,645,000 Rp26,949,900,000
Rp14,386,840,000 Rp10,023,150,000 Rp88,368,190,000 Rp65,058,075,000 Dem
Rp150,000,000,000
Rp20,648,160,000 Rp14,357,925,000 Rp42,966,810,000 Rp31,219,950,000
Rp20,099,040,000 Rp13,977,825,000 Rp90,580,740,000
Rp100,000,000,000 Rp66,426,850,000
Rp15,440,945,000 Rp10,752,975,000 Rp87,575,945,000 Rp64,423,700,000
Rp50,000,000,000
Rp15,898,610,000 Rp11,069,850,000 Rp107,797,160,000 Rp79,343,975,000
Rp19,482,190,000 Rp13,550,775,000 Rp75,372,190,000
Rp0 Rp55,218,250,000
Rp18,733,780,000 Rp13,032,600,000 Rp101,231,380,000 Rp74,359,850,000
Rp16,493,035,000 Rp11,481,300,000 Rp125,070,835,000 Rp92,078,825,000
Rp24,898,835,000 Rp17,300,700,000 Rp100,921,385,000 Rp73,843,750,000
Rp17,554,615,000 Rp12,216,225,000 Rp115,804,915,000 Rp85,183,350,000
Rp21,286,070,000 Rp14,799,600,000 Rp112,391,720,000 Agregat Pesaing
Rp82,487,575,000
Rp24,569,935,000 Rp17,073,000,000 Rp60,323,335,000
Rp200,000,000,000 Rp43,862,050,000
Rp19,986,525,000 Rp13,899,900,000 Rp102,451,275,000 Rp75,203,400,000
Rp180,000,000,000
Rp26,503,490,000 Rp18,411,675,000 Rp127,914,140,000 Rp93,713,900,000
Rp160,000,000,000
Rp19,942,845,000 Rp13,869,675,000 Rp128,388,795,000 Rp94,370,300,000
Rp140,000,000,000
Rp28,083,900,000 Rp19,505,775,000 Rp157,239,750,000 Rp115,308,525,000
Rp120,000,000,000
De
Rp20,047,170,000 Rp13,941,900,000 Rp174,208,620,000 Rp128,220,725,000
Rp100,000,000,000
Rp22,613,435,000 Rp15,718,575,000 Rp110,397,185,000 Rp80,951,750,000
Rp80,000,000,000
Rp22,708,920,000 Rp15,784,650,000 Rp133,627,170,000 Rp98,112,125,000
Rp60,000,000,000
Rp23,218,585,000 Rp40,000,000,000
Rp16,137,450,000 Rp158,885,485,000 Rp116,751,475,000
Rp25,720,890,000 Rp20,000,000,000
Rp17,869,875,000 Rp123,848,790,000 Rp90,746,750,000
Rp30,009,005,000 Rp20,838,525,000 Rp0
Rp141,866,405,000 Rp103,859,500,000
Rp27,056,445,000 Rp18,794,475,000 Rp172,763,295,000 Rp126,826,575,000
Rp29,124,225,000 Rp20,226,000,000 Rp156,008,025,000 Rp114,350,100,000
Rp25,291,110,000 Rp17,572,350,000 Rp181,491,060,000 Rp133,357,400,000
Rp25,373,660,000 Rp17,629,500,000 Rp156,064,460,000 Rp114,566,550,000
Rp31,112,900,000 Rp21,602,775,000 Rp143,796,500,000 Rp105,234,125,000
Rp29,944,590,000 Rp20,793,900,000 Rp152,397,690,000 Rp111,644,300,000
Rp28,574,390,000 Rp19,845,300,000 Rp160,869,440,000 Rp117,967,475,000
Rp29,566,485,000 Rp20,532,150,000 Rp170,848,935,000 Rp125,385,075,000
Rp32,694,090,000 Rp22,697,475,000 Rp186,873,990,000 Rp136,990,075,000
Rp32,204,575,000 Rp22,358,550,000 Rp170,087,275,000 Rp124,609,425,000
Rp26,417,365,000 Rp18,352,050,000 Rp173,575,015,000 Rp127,455,750,000
Rp23,632,570,000 Rp16,424,100,000 Rp218,582,920,000 Rp160,841,675,000
Rp32,835,205,000 Rp22,795,125,000 Rp178,514,605,000 Rp130,806,800,000
Rp30,686,370,000 Rp21,307,500,000 Rp196,678,320,000 Rp144,327,750,000
Rp30,965,675,000 Rp21,500,850,000 Rp208,123,925,000 Rp152,772,325,000
Rp31,694,845,000 Rp22,005,675,000 Rp182,399,395,000 Rp133,730,425,000
Rp33,327,125,000 Rp23,135,700,000 Rp155,857,625,000 Rp114,043,100,000
Rp32,464,380,000 Rp22,538,400,000 Rp193,489,680,000 Rp141,889,275,000
Rp27,111,565,000 Rp18,832,575,000 Rp167,845,465,000 Rp123,190,550,000
Rp31,925,985,000 Rp22,165,650,000 Rp155,797,035,000 Rp114,063,900,000
Rp39,155,610,000 Rp27,170,775,000 Rp192,971,910,000 Rp141,195,000,000
Rp33,898,865,000 Rp23,531,550,000 Rp216,416,615,000 Rp158,762,625,000
Rp33,364,760,000 Rp23,161,725,000 Rp167,715,860,000 Rp122,803,425,000
Rp34,334,105,000 Rp23,832,900,000 Rp188,800,655,000 Rp138,337,825,000
Rp32,734,455,000 Rp22,725,450,000 Rp204,219,105,000 Rp149,804,575,000
Rp36,989,615,000 Rp25,671,225,000 Rp217,321,715,000 Rp159,287,775,000
Rp32,463,535,000 Rp22,537,800,000 Rp218,304,985,000 Rp160,225,100,000
Rp39,979,290,000 Rp27,741,075,000 Rp252,021,090,000 Rp184,787,000,000
Rp39,505,180,000 Rp27,412,800,000 Rp228,673,030,000 Rp167,557,750,000
Rp38,071,670,000 Rp26,420,400,000 Rp241,615,220,000 Rp177,187,300,000
Rp32,508,775,000 Rp22,569,150,000 Rp208,310,725,000 Rp152,837,900,000
Rp1,565,346,640,000 Rp1,087,486,125,000
0.18 0.17
an

Demand

Demand
Double Moving Average
Periode Demand S't S''t at
1 73,757,300,000 - - -
2 49,945,025,000 - - -
3 72,874,590,000 65,525,638,333 - -
4 114,801,590,000 79,207,068,333 - -
5 58,026,095,000 81,900,758,333 75,544,488,333 88,257,028,333
6 66,639,710,000 79,822,465,000 80,310,097,222 79,334,832,778
7 37,081,645,000 53,915,816,667 71,879,680,000 35,951,953,333
8 88,368,190,000 64,029,848,333 65,922,710,000 62,136,986,667
9 42,966,810,000 56,138,881,667 58,028,182,222 54,249,581,111
10 90,580,740,000 73,971,913,333 64,713,547,778 83,230,278,889
11 87,575,945,000 73,707,831,667 67,939,542,222 79,476,121,111
12 107,797,160,000 95,317,948,333 80,999,231,111 109,636,665,556
13 75,372,190,000 90,248,431,667 86,424,737,222 94,072,126,111
14 101,231,380,000 94,800,243,333 93,455,541,111 96,144,945,556
15 125,070,835,000 100,558,135,000 95,202,270,000 105,914,000,000
16 100,921,385,000 109,074,533,333 101,477,637,222 116,671,429,444
17 115,804,915,000 113,932,378,333 107,855,015,556 120,009,741,111
18 112,391,720,000 109,706,006,667 110,904,306,111 108,507,707,222
19 60,323,335,000 96,173,323,333 106,603,902,778 85,742,743,889
20 102,451,275,000 91,722,110,000 99,200,480,000 84,243,740,000
21 127,914,140,000 96,896,250,000 94,930,561,111 98,861,938,889
22 128,388,795,000 119,584,736,667 102,734,365,556 136,435,107,778
23 157,239,750,000 137,847,561,667 118,109,516,111 157,585,607,222
24 174,208,620,000 153,279,055,000 136,903,784,444 169,654,325,556
25 110,397,185,000 147,281,851,667 146,136,156,111 148,427,547,222
26 133,627,170,000 139,410,991,667 146,657,299,444 132,164,683,889
27 158,885,485,000 134,303,280,000 140,332,041,111 128,274,518,889
28 123,848,790,000 138,787,148,333 137,500,473,333 140,073,823,333
29 141,866,405,000 141,533,560,000 138,207,996,111 144,859,123,889
30 172,763,295,000 146,159,496,667 142,160,068,333 150,158,925,000
31 156,008,025,000 156,879,241,667 148,190,766,111 165,567,717,222
32 181,491,060,000 170,087,460,000 157,708,732,778 182,466,187,222
33 156,064,460,000 164,521,181,667 163,829,294,444 165,213,068,889
34 143,796,500,000 160,450,673,333 165,019,771,667 155,881,575,000
35 152,397,690,000 150,752,883,333 158,574,912,778 142,930,853,889
36 160,869,440,000 152,354,543,333 154,519,366,667 150,189,720,000
37 170,848,935,000 161,372,021,667 154,826,482,778 167,917,560,556
38 186,873,990,000 172,864,121,667 162,196,895,556 183,531,347,778
39 170,087,275,000 175,936,733,333 170,057,625,556 181,815,841,111
40 173,575,015,000 176,845,426,667 175,215,427,222 178,475,426,111
41 218,582,920,000 187,415,070,000 180,065,743,333 194,764,396,667
42 178,514,605,000 190,224,180,000 184,828,225,556 195,620,134,444
43 196,678,320,000 197,925,281,667 191,854,843,889 203,995,719,444
44 208,123,925,000 194,438,950,000 194,196,137,222 194,681,762,778
45 182,399,395,000 195,733,880,000 196,032,703,889 195,435,056,111
46 155,857,625,000 182,126,981,667 190,766,603,889 173,487,359,444
47 193,489,680,000 177,248,900,000 185,036,587,222 169,461,212,778
48 167,845,465,000 172,397,590,000 177,257,823,889 167,537,356,111
49 155,797,035,000 172,377,393,333 174,007,961,111 170,746,825,556
50 192,971,910,000 172,204,803,333 172,326,595,556 172,083,011,111
51 216,416,615,000 188,395,186,667 177,659,127,778 199,131,245,556
52 167,715,860,000 192,368,128,333 184,322,706,111 200,413,550,556
53 188,800,655,000 190,977,710,000 190,580,341,667 191,375,078,333
54 204,219,105,000 186,911,873,333 190,085,903,889 183,737,842,778
55 217,321,715,000 203,447,158,333 193,778,913,889 213,115,402,778
56 218,304,985,000 213,281,935,000 201,213,655,556 225,350,214,444
57 252,021,090,000 229,215,930,000 215,315,007,778 243,116,852,222
58 228,673,030,000 232,999,701,667 225,165,855,556 240,833,547,778
59 241,615,220,000 240,769,780,000 234,328,470,556 247,211,089,444
60 208,310,725,000 226,199,658,333 225,165,855,556 227,233,461,111
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
Total
Perhitungan Peramalan Error
bt m F(t+m) et et
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
6,356,270,000 1 94,613,298,334 36,587,203,334 36,587,203,334
-487,632,222 1 78,847,200,556 12,207,490,556 12,207,490,556
-17,963,863,333 1 17,988,090,000 -19,093,555,000 19,093,555,000
-1,892,861,667 1 60,244,125,000 -28,124,065,000 28,124,065,000
-1,889,300,556 1 52,360,280,556 9,393,470,556 9,393,470,556
9,258,365,556 1 92,488,644,445 1,907,904,445 1,907,904,445
5,768,289,444 1 85,244,410,556 -2,331,534,444 2,331,534,444
14,318,717,222 1 123,955,382,778 16,158,222,778 16,158,222,778
3,823,694,444 1 97,895,820,556 22,523,630,556 22,523,630,556
1,344,702,222 1 97,489,647,778 -3,741,732,222 3,741,732,222
5,355,865,000 1 111,269,865,000 -13,800,970,000 13,800,970,000
7,596,896,111 1 124,268,325,556 23,346,940,556 23,346,940,556
6,077,362,778 1 126,087,103,889 10,282,188,889 10,282,188,889
-1,198,299,444 1 107,309,407,778 -5,082,312,222 5,082,312,222
-10,430,579,444 1 75,312,164,445 14,988,829,445 14,988,829,445
-7,478,370,000 1 76,765,370,000 -25,685,905,000 25,685,905,000
1,965,688,889 1 100,827,627,778 -27,086,512,222 27,086,512,222
16,850,371,111 1 153,285,478,889 24,896,683,889 24,896,683,889
19,738,045,556 1 177,323,652,778 20,083,902,778 20,083,902,778
16,375,270,556 1 186,029,596,112 11,820,976,112 11,820,976,112
1,145,695,556 1 149,573,242,778 39,176,057,778 39,176,057,778
-7,246,307,778 1 124,918,376,112 -8,708,793,888 8,708,793,888
-6,028,761,111 1 122,245,757,778 -36,639,727,222 36,639,727,222
1,286,675,000 1 141,360,498,334 17,511,708,334 17,511,708,334
3,325,563,889 1 148,184,687,778 6,318,282,778 6,318,282,778
3,999,428,333 1 154,158,353,334 -18,604,941,666 18,604,941,666
8,688,475,556 1 174,256,192,778 18,248,167,778 18,248,167,778
12,378,727,222 1 194,844,914,445 13,353,854,445 13,353,854,445
691,887,222 1 165,904,956,112 9,840,496,112 9,840,496,112
-4,569,098,333 1 151,312,476,667 7,515,976,667 7,515,976,667
-7,822,029,444 1 135,108,824,445 -17,288,865,555 17,288,865,555
-2,164,823,333 1 148,024,896,667 -12,844,543,333 12,844,543,333
6,545,538,889 1 174,463,099,445 3,614,164,445 3,614,164,445
10,667,226,111 1 194,198,573,889 7,324,583,889 7,324,583,889
5,879,107,778 1 187,694,948,889 17,607,673,889 17,607,673,889
1,629,999,444 1 180,105,425,556 6,530,410,556 6,530,410,556
7,349,326,667 1 202,113,723,334 -16,469,196,666 16,469,196,666
5,395,954,444 1 201,016,088,889 22,501,483,889 22,501,483,889
6,070,437,778 1 210,066,157,223 13,387,837,223 13,387,837,223
242,812,778 1 194,924,575,556 -13,199,349,444 13,199,349,444
-298,823,889 1 195,136,232,223 12,736,837,223 12,736,837,223
-8,639,622,222 1 164,847,737,223 8,990,112,223 8,990,112,223
-7,787,687,222 1 161,673,525,556 -31,816,154,444 31,816,154,444
-4,860,233,889 1 162,677,122,223 -5,168,342,777 5,168,342,777
-1,630,567,778 1 169,116,257,778 13,319,222,778 13,319,222,778
-121,792,222 1 171,961,218,889 -21,010,691,111 21,010,691,111
10,736,058,889 1 209,867,304,445 -6,549,310,555 6,549,310,555
8,045,422,222 1 208,458,972,778 40,743,112,778 40,743,112,778
397,368,333 1 191,772,446,667 2,971,791,667 2,971,791,667
-3,174,030,556 1 180,563,812,223 -23,655,292,777 23,655,292,777
9,668,244,444 1 222,783,647,223 5,461,932,223 5,461,932,223
12,068,279,444 1 237,418,493,889 19,113,508,889 19,113,508,889
13,900,922,222 1 257,017,774,445 4,996,684,445 4,996,684,445
7,833,846,111 1 248,667,393,889 19,994,363,889 19,994,363,889
6,441,309,444 1 253,652,398,889 12,037,178,889 12,037,178,889
1,033,802,778 1 228,267,263,889 19,956,538,889 19,956,538,889
1 228,267,263,889
2 229,301,066,667
3 230,334,869,445
4 231,368,672,223
5 232,402,475,000
6 233,436,277,778
7 234,470,080,556
8 235,503,883,334
9 236,537,686,112
10 237,571,488,889
11 238,605,291,667
12 239,639,094,445
13 240,672,897,223
14 241,706,700,000
15 242,740,502,778
16 243,774,305,556
17 244,808,108,334
18 245,841,911,112
19 246,875,713,889
20 247,909,516,667
21 248,943,319,445
22 249,977,122,223
23 251,010,925,001
24 252,044,727,778
25 253,078,530,556
26 254,112,333,334
27 255,146,136,112
28 256,179,938,889
29 257,213,741,667
30 258,247,544,445
31 259,281,347,223
32 260,315,150,001
33 261,348,952,778
34 262,382,755,556
35 263,416,558,334
36 264,450,361,112
37 265,484,163,889
38 266,517,966,667
39 267,551,769,445
40 268,585,572,223
41 269,619,375,001
42 270,653,177,778
43 271,686,980,556
44 272,720,783,334
45 273,754,586,112
46 274,788,388,889
47 275,822,191,667
48 276,855,994,445
49 277,889,797,223
50 278,923,600,001
51 279,957,402,778
52 280,991,205,556
53 282,025,008,334
54 283,058,811,112
55 284,092,613,889
56 285,126,416,667
57 286,160,219,445
58 287,194,022,223
59 288,227,825,001
60 289,261,627,778
210,547,630,022 884,351,221,118
rhitungan Peramalan Error
et^2 Pe (%) Pe Plot Data DMA
- - -
- - - 350,000,000,000
- - -
300,000,000,000
- - -
1,338,623,447,803,460,000,000 63.05 63.05 250,000,000,000
149,022,825,674,829,000,000 18.32 18.32
364,563,842,538,025,000,000 -51.49 51.49 200,000,000,000
790,963,032,124,225,000,000 -31.83 31.83
88,237,289,086,439,000,000 21.86 21.86 150,000,000,000
3,640,099,371,250,760,000 2.11 2.11
100,000,000,000
5,436,052,863,558,390,000 -2.66 2.66
261,088,163,343,478,000,000 14.99 14.99 50,000,000,000
507,313,933,423,177,000,000 29.88 29.88
14,000,560,021,153,100,000 -3.70 3.70 -
190,466,772,940,900,000,000 -11.03 11.03
545,079,633,325,398,000,000 23.13 23.13
105,723,408,349,075,000,000 8.88 8.88
Error Statistik
25,829,897,521,890,600,000 -4.52 4.52
224,665,008,131,299,000,000 24.85 24.85 ME
659,765,715,669,025,000,000 -25.07 25.07 SSE
733,679,144,352,555,000,000 -21.18 21.18 MSE
619,844,868,668,792,000,000 19.39 19.39 MASE
403,363,150,796,156,000,000 12.77 12.77
Error Relatif
139,735,476,240,475,000,000 6.79 6.79
1,534,763,503,025,190,000,000 35.49 35.49 MPE
75,843,090,983,666,200,000 -6.52 6.52 MAPE
1,342,469,610,902,570,000,000 -23.06 23.06
306,659,928,775,085,000,000 14.14 14.14
39,920,697,262,771,400,000 4.45 4.45
346,143,854,395,263,000,000 -10.77 10.77
332,995,627,254,037,000,000 11.70 11.70
178,325,428,538,246,000,000 7.36 7.36
96,835,363,730,287,100,000 6.31 6.31
56,489,905,258,888,400,000 5.23 5.23
298,904,872,178,865,000,000 -11.34 11.34
164,982,293,433,315,000,000 -7.98 7.98
13,062,184,635,502,200,000 2.12 2.12
53,649,529,146,998,400,000 3.92 3.92
310,030,179,781,372,000,000 10.35 10.35
42,646,262,029,916,200,000 3.76 3.76
271,234,438,823,386,000,000 -7.53 7.53
506,316,777,206,927,000,000 12.60 12.60
179,234,185,509,544,000,000 6.81 6.81
174,222,825,744,823,000,000 -6.34 6.34
162,227,022,445,198,000,000 6.98 6.98
80,822,117,782,134,000,000 5.77 5.77
1,012,267,683,604,460,000,000 -16.44 16.44
26,711,767,060,568,100,000 -3.08 3.08
177,401,695,409,994,000,000 8.55 8.55
441,449,140,961,854,000,000 -10.89 10.89
42,893,468,745,834,400,000 -3.03 3.03
1,660,001,238,840,830,000,000 24.29 24.29
8,831,545,712,050,640,000 1.57 1.57
559,572,876,365,588,000,000 -11.58 11.58
29,832,703,608,645,700,000 2.51 2.51
365,326,222,049,882,000,000 8.76 8.76
24,966,855,442,905,000,000 1.98 1.98
399,774,587,325,747,000,000 8.74 8.74
144,893,675,605,787,000,000 4.98 4.98
398,263,444,428,169,000,000 9.58 9.58
19,031,008,926,251,500,000,000 184 724
Plot Data DMA Perusahaan
350,000,000,000

300,000,000,000

250,000,000,000

200,000,000,000 Demand
Forecast
150,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

50,000,000,000

Error Statistik

3,759,779,108
18,601,568,324
339,839,445,111,633,000,000
15,791,986,091

Error Relatif

3.284
12.929
Double Moving Average
Periode Demand S't S''t at
1 54,211,750,000 - - -
2 36,352,525,000 - - -
3 53,781,000,000 48,115,091,667 - -
4 84,301,000,000 58,144,841,667 - -
5 43,030,900,000 60,370,966,667 55,543,633,333 65,198,300,000
6 48,781,125,000 58,704,341,667 59,073,383,333 58,335,300,000
7 26,949,900,000 39,587,308,333 52,887,538,889 26,287,077,778
8 65,058,075,000 46,929,700,000 48,407,116,667 45,452,283,333
9 31,219,950,000 41,075,975,000 42,530,994,444 39,620,955,556
10 66,426,850,000 54,234,958,333 47,413,544,444 61,056,372,222
11 64,423,700,000 54,023,500,000 49,778,144,444 58,268,855,556
12 79,343,975,000 70,064,841,667 59,441,100,000 80,688,583,333
13 55,218,250,000 66,328,641,667 63,472,327,778 69,184,955,556
14 74,359,850,000 69,640,691,667 68,678,058,333 70,603,325,000
15 92,078,825,000 73,885,641,667 69,951,658,333 77,819,625,000
16 73,843,750,000 80,094,141,667 74,540,158,333 85,648,125,000
17 85,183,350,000 83,701,975,000 79,227,252,778 88,176,697,222
18 82,487,575,000 80,504,891,667 81,433,669,444 79,576,113,889
19 43,862,050,000 70,510,991,667 78,239,286,111 62,782,697,222
20 75,203,400,000 67,184,341,667 72,733,408,333 61,635,275,000
21 93,713,900,000 70,926,450,000 69,540,594,444 72,312,305,556
22 94,370,300,000 87,762,533,333 75,291,108,333 100,233,958,333
23 115,308,525,000 101,130,908,333 86,606,630,556 115,655,186,111
24 128,220,725,000 112,633,183,333 100,508,875,000 124,757,491,667
25 80,951,750,000 108,160,333,333 107,308,141,667 109,012,525,000
26 98,112,125,000 102,428,200,000 107,740,572,222 97,115,827,778
27 116,751,475,000 98,605,116,667 103,064,550,000 94,145,683,333
28 90,746,750,000 101,870,116,667 100,967,811,111 102,772,422,222
29 103,859,500,000 103,785,908,333 101,420,380,556 106,151,436,111
30 126,826,575,000 107,144,275,000 104,266,766,667 110,021,783,333
31 114,350,100,000 115,012,058,333 108,647,413,889 121,376,702,778
32 133,357,400,000 124,844,691,667 115,667,008,333 134,022,375,000
33 114,566,550,000 120,758,016,667 120,204,922,222 121,311,111,111
34 105,234,125,000 117,719,358,333 121,107,355,556 114,331,361,111
35 111,644,300,000 110,481,658,333 116,319,677,778 104,643,638,889
36 117,967,475,000 111,615,300,000 113,272,105,556 109,958,494,444
37 125,385,075,000 118,332,283,333 113,476,413,889 123,188,152,778
38 136,990,075,000 126,780,875,000 118,909,486,111 134,652,263,889
39 124,609,425,000 128,994,858,333 124,702,672,222 133,287,044,444
40 127,455,750,000 129,685,083,333 128,486,938,889 130,883,227,778
41 160,841,675,000 137,635,616,667 132,105,186,111 143,166,047,222
42 130,806,800,000 139,701,408,333 135,674,036,111 143,728,780,556
43 144,327,750,000 145,325,408,333 140,887,477,778 149,763,338,889
44 152,772,325,000 142,635,625,000 142,554,147,222 142,717,102,778
45 133,730,425,000 143,610,166,667 143,857,066,667 143,363,266,667
46 114,043,100,000 133,515,283,333 139,920,358,333 127,110,208,333
47 141,889,275,000 129,887,600,000 135,671,016,667 124,104,183,333
48 123,190,550,000 126,374,308,333 129,925,730,556 122,822,886,111
49 114,063,900,000 126,381,241,667 127,547,716,667 125,214,766,667
50 141,195,000,000 126,149,816,667 126,301,788,889 125,997,844,444
51 158,762,625,000 138,007,175,000 130,179,411,111 145,834,938,889
52 122,803,425,000 140,920,350,000 135,025,780,556 146,814,919,444
53 138,337,825,000 139,967,958,333 139,631,827,778 140,304,088,889
54 149,804,575,000 136,981,941,667 139,290,083,333 134,673,800,000
55 159,287,775,000 149,143,391,667 142,031,097,222 156,255,686,111
56 160,225,100,000 156,439,150,000 147,521,494,444 165,356,805,556
57 184,787,000,000 168,099,958,333 157,894,166,667 178,305,750,000
58 167,557,750,000 170,856,616,667 165,131,908,333 176,581,325,000
59 177,187,300,000 176,510,683,333 171,822,419,444 181,198,947,222
60 152,837,900,000 165,860,983,333 165,131,908,333 166,590,058,333
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
Total
Perhitungan Peramalan Error
bt m F(t+m) et et
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
4,827,333,333 1 70,025,633,334 26,994,733,334 26,994,733,334
-369,041,667 1 57,966,258,334 9,185,133,334 9,185,133,334
-13,300,230,556 1 12,986,847,223 -13,963,052,777 13,963,052,777
-1,477,416,667 1 43,974,866,667 -21,083,208,333 21,083,208,333
-1,455,019,444 1 38,165,936,112 6,945,986,112 6,945,986,112
6,821,413,889 1 67,877,786,112 1,450,936,112 1,450,936,112
4,245,355,556 1 62,514,211,112 -1,909,488,888 1,909,488,888
10,623,741,667 1 91,312,325,000 11,968,350,000 11,968,350,000
2,856,313,889 1 72,041,269,445 16,823,019,445 16,823,019,445
962,633,333 1 71,565,958,334 -2,793,891,666 2,793,891,666
3,933,983,333 1 81,753,608,334 -10,325,216,666 10,325,216,666
5,553,983,333 1 91,202,108,334 17,358,358,334 17,358,358,334
4,474,722,222 1 92,651,419,445 7,468,069,445 7,468,069,445
-928,777,778 1 78,647,336,112 -3,840,238,888 3,840,238,888
-7,728,294,444 1 55,054,402,778 11,192,352,778 11,192,352,778
-5,549,066,667 1 56,086,208,334 -19,117,191,666 19,117,191,666
1,385,855,556 1 73,698,161,112 -20,015,738,888 20,015,738,888
12,471,425,000 1 112,705,383,334 18,335,083,334 18,335,083,334
14,524,277,778 1 130,179,463,889 14,870,938,889 14,870,938,889
12,124,308,333 1 136,881,800,000 8,661,075,000 8,661,075,000
852,191,667 1 109,864,716,667 28,912,966,667 28,912,966,667
-5,312,372,222 1 91,803,455,556 -6,308,669,444 6,308,669,444
-4,459,433,333 1 89,686,250,000 -27,065,225,000 27,065,225,000
902,305,556 1 103,674,727,778 12,927,977,778 12,927,977,778
2,365,527,778 1 108,516,963,889 4,657,463,889 4,657,463,889
2,877,508,333 1 112,899,291,667 -13,927,283,333 13,927,283,333
6,364,644,444 1 127,741,347,223 13,391,247,223 13,391,247,223
9,177,683,333 1 143,200,058,334 9,842,658,334 9,842,658,334
553,094,444 1 121,864,205,556 7,297,655,556 7,297,655,556
-3,387,997,222 1 110,943,363,889 5,709,238,889 5,709,238,889
-5,838,019,444 1 98,805,619,445 -12,838,680,555 12,838,680,555
-1,656,805,556 1 108,301,688,889 -9,665,786,111 9,665,786,111
4,855,869,444 1 128,044,022,223 2,658,947,223 2,658,947,223
7,871,388,889 1 142,523,652,778 5,533,577,778 5,533,577,778
4,292,186,111 1 137,579,230,556 12,969,805,556 12,969,805,556
1,198,144,444 1 132,081,372,223 4,625,622,223 4,625,622,223
5,530,430,556 1 148,696,477,778 -12,145,197,222 12,145,197,222
4,027,372,222 1 147,756,152,778 16,949,352,778 16,949,352,778
4,437,930,556 1 154,201,269,445 9,873,519,445 9,873,519,445
81,477,778 1 142,798,580,556 -9,973,744,444 9,973,744,444
-246,900,000 1 143,116,366,667 9,385,941,667 9,385,941,667
-6,405,075,000 1 120,705,133,334 6,662,033,334 6,662,033,334
-5,783,416,667 1 118,320,766,667 -23,568,508,333 23,568,508,333
-3,551,422,222 1 119,271,463,889 -3,919,086,111 3,919,086,111
-1,166,475,000 1 124,048,291,667 9,984,391,667 9,984,391,667
-151,972,222 1 125,845,872,223 -15,349,127,777 15,349,127,777
7,827,763,889 1 153,662,702,778 -5,099,922,222 5,099,922,222
5,894,569,444 1 152,709,488,889 29,906,063,889 29,906,063,889
336,130,556 1 140,640,219,445 2,302,394,445 2,302,394,445
-2,308,141,667 1 132,365,658,334 -17,438,916,666 17,438,916,666
7,112,294,444 1 163,367,980,556 4,080,205,556 4,080,205,556
8,917,655,556 1 174,274,461,112 14,049,361,112 14,049,361,112
10,205,791,667 1 188,511,541,667 3,724,541,667 3,724,541,667
5,724,708,333 1 182,306,033,334 14,748,283,334 14,748,283,334
4,688,263,889 1 185,887,211,112 8,699,911,112 8,699,911,112
729,075,000 1 167,319,133,334 14,481,233,334 14,481,233,334
1 167,319,133,334
2 168,048,208,334
3 168,777,283,334
4 169,506,358,334
5 170,235,433,334
6 170,964,508,334
7 171,693,583,334
8 172,422,658,334
9 173,151,733,334
10 173,880,808,334
11 174,609,883,334
12 175,338,958,334
13 176,068,033,334
14 176,797,108,334
15 177,526,183,334
16 178,255,258,334
17 178,984,333,334
18 179,713,408,334
19 180,442,483,334
20 181,171,558,334
21 181,900,633,334
22 182,629,708,334
23 183,358,783,334
24 184,087,858,334
25 184,816,933,334
26 185,546,008,334
27 186,275,083,334
28 187,004,158,334
29 187,733,233,334
30 188,462,308,334
31 189,191,383,334
32 189,920,458,334
33 190,649,533,334
34 191,378,608,334
35 192,107,683,334
36 192,836,758,334
37 193,565,833,334
38 194,294,908,334
39 195,023,983,334
40 195,753,058,334
41 196,482,133,334
42 197,211,208,334
43 197,940,283,334
44 198,669,358,334
45 199,398,433,334
46 200,127,508,334
47 200,856,583,334
48 201,585,658,334
49 202,314,733,334
50 203,043,808,334
51 203,772,883,334
52 204,501,958,334
53 205,231,033,334
54 205,960,108,334
55 206,689,183,334
56 207,418,258,334
57 208,147,333,334
58 208,876,408,334
59 209,605,483,334
60 210,334,558,334
154,280,255,583 654,976,605,563
ungan Peramalan Error
et^2 Pe (%) Pe Plot Data DMA Pes
- - -
250,000,000,000
- - -
- - -
- - - 200,000,000,000
728,715,627,773,771,000,000 62.73 62.73
84,366,674,363,358,000,000 18.83 18.83 150,000,000,000
194,966,842,853,287,000,000 -51.81 51.81
444,501,673,612,681,000,000 -32.41 32.41
48,246,723,068,096,900,000 22.25 22.25 100,000,000,000
2,105,215,601,105,680,000 2.18 2.18
3,646,147,813,395,480,000 -2.96 2.96 50,000,000,000
143,241,401,722,500,000,000 15.08 15.08
283,013,983,246,848,000,000 30.47 30.47
-
7,805,830,641,344,260,000 -3.76 3.76
106,610,099,199,844,000,000 -11.21 11.21
301,312,604,051,547,000,000 23.51 23.51
55,772,061,235,342,600,000 8.77 8.77
Error Statistik
14,747,434,716,907,500,000 -4.66 4.66
125,268,760,707,204,000,000 25.52 25.52 ME 2,755,004,564
365,467,017,194,580,000,000 -25.42 25.42 SSE 13,759,229,874
400,629,803,232,595,000,000 -21.36 21.36 MSE 185,935,756,614,709,000,000
336,175,280,864,725,000,000 19.43 19.43 MASE 11,696,010,814
221,144,823,440,373,000,000 12.90 12.90
Error Relatif
75,014,220,155,625,000,000 6.75 6.75
835,959,641,487,053,000,000 35.72 35.72 MPE 3.294
39,799,310,153,659,300,000 -6.43 6.43 MAPE 13.060
732,526,404,300,625,000,000 -23.18 23.18
167,132,609,428,462,000,000 14.25 14.25
21,691,969,877,339,000,000 4.48 4.48
193,969,221,037,660,000,000 -10.98 10.98
179,325,502,187,505,000,000 11.71 11.71
96,877,923,079,859,700,000 7.38 7.38
53,255,776,614,017,700,000 6.37 6.37
32,595,408,691,670,000,000 5.43 5.43
164,831,718,393,335,000,000 -11.50 11.50
93,427,421,143,600,500,000 -8.19 8.19
7,070,000,334,699,410,000 2.12 2.12
30,620,483,025,175,400,000 4.04 4.04
168,215,856,160,448,000,000 10.41 10.41
21,396,380,949,911,500,000 3.63 3.63
147,505,815,561,277,000,000 -7.55 7.55
287,280,559,593,096,000,000 12.96 12.96
97,486,386,230,793,100,000 6.84 6.84
99,475,578,234,220,900,000 -6.53 6.53
88,095,900,976,326,700,000 7.02 7.02
44,382,688,143,327,200,000 5.84 5.84
555,474,585,042,690,000,000 -16.61 16.61
15,359,235,945,433,100,000 -3.18 3.18
99,688,076,960,059,000,000 8.75 8.75
235,595,723,514,673,000,000 -10.87 10.87
26,009,206,670,449,400,000 -3.21 3.21
894,372,657,332,950,000,000 24.35 24.35
5,301,020,180,366,860,000 1.66 1.66
304,115,814,483,693,000,000 -11.64 11.64
16,648,077,379,213,300,000 2.56 2.56
197,384,547,655,378,000,000 8.77 8.77
13,872,210,629,219,100,000 2.02 2.02
217,511,861,299,942,000,000 8.80 8.80
75,688,453,356,701,100,000 4.91 4.91
209,706,118,873,753,000,000 9.47 9.47
10,412,402,370,423,700,000,000 184 731
ot Data DMA Pesaing

Demand
Forecast

Brown
Periode Demand S't S''t a
1 73,757,300,000 73,757,300,000 73,757,300,000 -
2 49,945,025,000 70,661,704,250 73,354,872,553 67,968,535,948
3 72,874,590,000 70,949,379,398 73,042,158,442 68,856,600,353
4 114,801,590,000 76,650,166,776 73,511,199,526 79,789,134,026
5 58,026,095,000 74,229,037,445 73,604,518,455 74,853,556,435
6 66,639,710,000 73,242,424,877 73,557,446,290 72,927,403,464
7 37,081,645,000 68,541,523,493 72,905,376,326 64,177,670,660
8 88,368,190,000 71,118,990,139 72,673,146,122 69,564,834,156
9 42,966,810,000 67,459,206,721 71,995,334,000 62,923,079,442
10 90,580,740,000 70,465,006,047 71,796,391,366 69,133,620,728
11 87,575,945,000 72,689,428,111 71,912,486,143 73,466,370,079
12 107,797,160,000 77,253,433,257 72,606,809,268 81,900,057,246
13 75,372,190,000 77,008,871,633 73,179,077,375 80,838,665,891
14 101,231,380,000 80,157,797,721 74,086,311,020 86,229,284,422
15 125,070,835,000 85,996,492,567 75,634,634,621 96,358,350,513
16 100,921,385,000 87,936,728,583 77,233,906,836 98,639,550,331
17 115,804,915,000 91,559,592,818 79,096,246,014 104,022,939,621
18 112,391,720,000 94,267,769,351 81,068,544,048 107,466,994,655
19 60,323,335,000 89,854,992,886 82,210,782,397 97,499,203,375
20 102,451,275,000 91,492,509,561 83,417,406,928 99,567,612,193
21 127,914,140,000 96,227,321,518 85,082,695,825 107,371,947,211
22 128,388,795,000 100,408,313,070 87,075,026,067 113,741,600,074
23 157,239,750,000 107,796,399,871 89,768,804,661 125,823,995,081
24 174,208,620,000 116,429,988,488 93,234,758,559 139,625,218,417
25 110,397,185,000 115,645,724,035 96,148,184,071 135,143,263,999
26 133,627,170,000 117,983,312,010 98,986,750,703 136,979,873,317
27 158,885,485,000 123,300,594,499 102,147,550,396 144,453,638,601
28 123,848,790,000 123,371,859,914 104,906,710,633 141,837,009,194
29 141,866,405,000 125,776,150,775 107,619,737,852 143,932,563,698
30 172,763,295,000 131,884,479,524 110,774,154,269 152,994,804,779
31 156,008,025,000 135,020,540,436 113,926,184,471 156,114,896,401
32 181,491,060,000 141,061,707,979 117,453,802,527 164,669,613,432
33 156,064,460,000 143,012,065,742 120,776,376,745 165,247,754,739
34 143,796,500,000 143,114,042,196 123,680,273,254 162,547,811,138
35 152,397,690,000 144,320,916,410 126,363,556,864 162,278,275,956
36 160,869,440,000 146,472,224,477 128,977,683,654 163,966,765,300
37 170,848,935,000 149,641,196,845 131,663,940,369 167,618,453,321
38 186,873,990,000 154,481,459,955 134,630,217,915 174,332,701,995
39 170,087,275,000 156,510,215,911 137,474,617,654 175,545,814,168
40 173,575,015,000 158,728,639,792 140,237,640,532 177,219,639,053
41 218,582,920,000 166,509,696,219 143,653,007,772 189,366,384,667
42 178,514,605,000 168,070,334,361 146,827,260,228 189,313,408,494
43 196,678,320,000 171,789,372,494 150,072,334,823 193,506,410,165
44 208,123,925,000 176,512,864,320 153,509,603,657 199,516,124,982
45 182,399,395,000 177,278,113,308 156,599,509,912 197,956,716,704
46 155,857,625,000 174,493,449,828 158,925,722,101 190,061,177,555
47 193,489,680,000 176,962,959,750 161,270,562,996 192,655,356,505
48 167,845,465,000 175,777,685,433 163,156,488,912 188,398,881,953
49 155,797,035,000 173,180,200,877 164,459,571,468 181,900,830,286
50 192,971,910,000 175,753,123,063 165,927,733,175 185,578,512,950
51 216,416,615,000 181,039,377,015 167,892,246,874 194,186,507,155
52 167,715,860,000 179,307,319,803 169,376,206,355 189,238,433,250
53 188,800,655,000 180,541,453,378 170,827,688,468 190,255,218,289
54 204,219,105,000 183,619,548,089 172,490,630,219 194,748,465,960
55 217,321,715,000 188,000,829,788 174,506,956,163 201,494,703,412
56 218,304,985,000 191,940,369,965 176,773,299,957 207,107,439,973
57 252,021,090,000 199,750,863,570 179,760,383,227 219,741,343,913
58 228,673,030,000 203,510,745,206 182,847,930,284 224,173,560,127
59 241,615,220,000 208,464,326,929 186,178,061,848 230,750,592,010
60 208,310,725,000 208,444,358,678 189,072,680,436 227,816,036,921
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
Total
0.13
Perhitungan Peramalan Error
b m Ft+m et et
- - - -
-402,427,447.50 1 - -
-312,714,110.15 1 67,566,108,500 -5,308,481,500.00 5,308,481,500.00
469,041,083.35 1 68,543,886,243 -46,257,703,757.50 46,257,703,757.50
93,318,929.50 1 80,258,175,109 22,232,080,109.30 22,232,080,109.30
-47,072,165.15 1 74,946,875,364 8,307,165,364.23 8,307,165,364.23
-652,069,963.60 1 72,880,331,299 35,798,686,299.04 35,798,686,299.04
-232,230,204.37 1 63,525,600,696 -24,842,589,303.86 24,842,589,303.86
-677,812,122.15 1 69,332,603,952 26,365,793,951.54 26,365,793,951.54
-198,942,633.85 1 62,245,267,320 -28,335,472,680.23 28,335,472,680.23
116,094,776.85 1 68,934,678,094 -18,641,266,905.52 18,641,266,905.52
694,323,124.78 1 73,582,464,856 -34,214,695,143.94 34,214,695,143.94
572,268,107.52 1 82,594,380,370 7,222,190,370.33 7,222,190,370.33
907,233,644.94 1 81,410,933,999 -19,820,446,001.17 19,820,446,001.17
1,548,323,601.12 1 87,136,518,067 -37,934,316,933.34 37,934,316,933.34
1,599,272,215.09 1 97,906,674,114 -3,014,710,885.73 3,014,710,885.73
1,862,339,177.56 1 100,238,822,546 -15,566,092,454.33 15,566,092,454.33
1,972,298,033.86 1 105,885,278,799 -6,506,441,201.12 6,506,441,201.12
1,142,238,348.92 1 109,439,292,689 49,115,957,688.74 49,115,957,688.74
1,206,624,531.29 1 98,641,441,724 -3,809,833,276.47 3,809,833,276.47
1,665,288,896.65 1 100,774,236,724 -27,139,903,275.67 27,139,903,275.67
1,992,330,241.94 1 109,037,236,107 -19,351,558,892.70 19,351,558,892.70
2,693,778,594.60 1 115,733,930,316 -41,505,819,683.94 41,505,819,683.94
3,465,953,897.48 1 128,517,773,676 -45,690,846,324.18 45,690,846,324.18
2,913,425,511.86 1 143,091,172,315 32,693,987,314.71 32,693,987,314.71
2,838,566,632.13 1 138,056,689,510 4,429,519,510.36 4,429,519,510.36
3,160,799,693.49 1 139,818,439,950 -19,067,045,050.47 19,067,045,050.47
2,759,160,237.30 1 147,614,438,295 23,765,648,294.78 23,765,648,294.78
2,713,027,218.41 1 144,596,169,432 2,729,764,431.63 2,729,764,431.63
3,154,416,417.42 1 146,645,590,917 -26,117,704,083.29 26,117,704,083.29
3,152,030,201.69 1 156,149,221,197 141,196,196.77 141,196,196.77
3,527,618,056.10 1 159,266,926,603 -22,224,133,396.97 22,224,133,396.97
3,322,574,217.96 1 168,197,231,488 12,132,771,487.94 12,132,771,487.94
2,903,896,508.58 1 168,570,328,957 24,773,828,957.17 24,773,828,957.17
2,683,283,610.36 1 165,451,707,646 13,054,017,646.26 13,054,017,646.26
2,614,126,789.68 1 164,961,559,567 4,092,119,566.81 4,092,119,566.81
2,686,256,714.86 1 166,580,892,090 -4,268,042,910.20 4,268,042,910.20
2,966,277,546.25 1 170,304,710,036 -16,569,279,963.87 16,569,279,963.87
2,844,399,739.50 1 177,298,979,542 7,211,704,541.60 7,211,704,541.60
2,763,022,877.97 1 178,390,213,907 4,815,198,907.03 4,815,198,907.03
3,415,367,239.34 1 179,982,661,931 -38,600,258,069.30 38,600,258,069.30
3,174,252,456.62 1 192,781,751,907 14,267,146,906.69 14,267,146,906.69
3,245,074,594.56 1 192,487,660,950 -4,190,659,049.71 4,190,659,049.71
3,437,268,834.62 1 196,751,484,760 -11,372,440,240.17 11,372,440,240.17
3,089,906,254.61 1 202,953,393,817 20,553,998,816.83 20,553,998,816.83
2,326,212,189.10 1 201,046,622,959 45,188,997,959.07 45,188,997,959.07
2,344,840,894.42 1 192,387,389,744 -1,102,290,255.68 1,102,290,255.68
1,885,925,916.87 1 195,000,197,400 27,154,732,399.90 27,154,732,399.90
1,303,082,555.36 1 190,284,807,870 34,487,772,870.35 34,487,772,870.35
1,468,161,707.34 1 183,203,912,841 -9,767,997,159.08 9,767,997,159.08
1,964,513,699.13 1 187,046,674,658 -29,369,940,342.36 29,369,940,342.36
1,483,959,480.70 1 196,151,020,854 28,435,160,854.00 28,435,160,854.00
1,451,482,113.04 1 190,722,392,731 1,921,737,731.09 1,921,737,731.09
1,662,941,750.75 1 191,706,700,402 -12,512,404,598.30 12,512,404,598.30
2,016,325,943.95 1 196,411,407,710 -20,910,307,289.70 20,910,307,289.70
2,266,343,794.33 1 203,511,029,356 -14,793,955,643.62 14,793,955,643.62
2,987,083,269.65 1 209,373,783,768 -42,647,306,232.33 42,647,306,232.33
3,087,547,057.27 1 222,728,427,182 -5,944,602,817.60 5,944,602,817.60
3,330,131,563.85 1 227,261,107,185 -14,354,112,815.37 14,354,112,815.37
2,894,618,587.95 1 234,080,723,574 25,769,998,573.90 25,769,998,573.90
1 230,710,655,509
2 233,605,274,096
3 236,499,892,684
4 239,394,511,272
5 242,289,129,860
6 245,183,748,448
7 248,078,367,036
8 250,972,985,624
9 253,867,604,212
10 256,762,222,800
11 259,656,841,388
12 262,551,459,976
13 265,446,078,564
14 268,340,697,152
15 271,235,315,740
16 274,129,934,328
17 277,024,552,916
18 279,919,171,504
19 282,813,790,092
20 285,708,408,680
21 288,603,027,268
22 291,497,645,856
23 294,392,264,443
24 297,286,883,031
25 300,181,501,619
26 303,076,120,207
27 305,970,738,795
28 308,865,357,383
29 311,759,975,971
30 314,654,594,559
31 317,549,213,147
32 320,443,831,735
33 323,338,450,323
34 326,233,068,911
35 329,127,687,499
36 332,022,306,087
37 334,916,924,675
38 337,811,543,263
39 340,706,161,851
40 343,600,780,439
41 346,495,399,027
42 349,390,017,615
43 352,284,636,202
44 355,179,254,790
45 358,073,873,378
46 360,968,491,966
47 363,863,110,554
48 366,757,729,142
49 369,652,347,730
50 372,546,966,318
51 375,441,584,906
52 378,336,203,494
53 381,230,822,082
54 384,125,440,670
55 387,020,059,258
56 389,914,677,846
57 392,809,296,434
58 395,703,915,022
59 398,598,533,610
60 401,493,152,198
-195,091,481,387.66 1,148,413,834,887.79
itungan Peramalan Error
et^2 Pe (%) Pe 0.1
- - - 0.2
- - - 0.3
28,179,975,835,842,200,000.00 -7.28 7.28 0.4
2,139,775,156,916,630,000,000.00 -40.29 40.29 0.5
494,265,385,986,332,000,000.00 38.31 38.31 0.6
69,008,996,388,724,600,000.00 12.47 12.47 0.7
1,281,545,940,736,900,000,000.00 96.54 96.54 0.8
617,154,243,320,418,000,000.00 -28.11 28.11 0.9
695,155,090,694,880,000,000.00 61.36 61.36
802,899,012,012,196,000,000.00 -31.28 31.28
347,496,831,842,922,000,000.00 -21.29 21.29
1,170,645,363,792,820,000,000.00 -31.74 31.74
52,160,033,745,324,200,000.00 9.58 9.58
392,850,079,685,392,000,000.00 -19.58 19.58
1,439,012,401,199,450,000,000.00 -30.33 30.33
9,088,481,724,553,840,000.00 -2.99 2.99
242,303,234,296,620,000,000.00 -13.44 13.44
Error Statistik
42,333,777,103,580,200,000.00 -5.79 5.79
2,412,377,299,681,830,000,000.00 81.42 81.42 MSE
14,514,829,594,516,100,000.00 -3.72 3.72 ME
736,574,349,812,568,000,000.00 -21.22 21.22 SSE
374,482,831,577,596,000,000.00 -15.07 15.07 MASE
1,722,733,067,636,050,000,000.00 -26.40 26.40
Error Relatif
2,087,653,437,819,660,000,000.00 -26.23 26.23
1,068,896,806,534,220,000,000.00 29.61 29.61 MPE
19,620,643,092,664,900,000.00 3.31 3.31 MAPE
363,552,206,956,817,000,000.00 -12.00 12.00
564,806,038,871,313,000,000.00 19.19 19.19
7,451,613,852,170,790,000.00 1.92 1.92
682,134,466,582,393,000,000.00 -15.12 15.12
19,936,365,983,610,800.00 0.09 0.09 Plot Data Brown Peru
493,912,105,246,259,000,000.00 -12.25 12.25
450,000,000,000
147,204,143,978,468,000,000.00 7.77 7.77
400,000,000,000
613,742,601,199,309,000,000.00 17.23 17.23
170,407,376,708,971,000,000.00 8.57 8.57 350,000,000,000
16,745,442,549,105,200,000.00 2.54 2.54 300,000,000,000
18,216,190,283,309,900,000.00 -2.50 2.50 250,000,000,000
274,541,038,521,108,000,000.00 -8.87 8.87 200,000,000,000
52,008,682,395,284,000,000.00 4.24 4.24 150,000,000,000
23,186,140,514,274,700,000.00 2.77 2.77 100,000,000,000
1,489,979,923,016,570,000,000.00 -17.66 17.66 50,000,000,000
203,551,480,856,957,000,000.00 7.99 7.99
0
17,561,623,270,943,600,000.00 -2.13 2.13
129,332,397,016,276,000,000.00 -5.46 5.46
422,466,867,362,220,000,000.00 11.27 11.27
2,042,045,536,544,730,000,000.00 28.99 28.99
1,215,043,807,763,090,000.00 -0.57 0.57
737,379,491,710,217,000,000.00 16.18 16.18
1,189,406,477,556,850,000,000.00 22.14 22.14
95,413,768,499,711,200,000.00 -5.06 5.06
862,593,395,713,770,000,000.00 -13.57 13.57
808,558,372,792,769,000,000.00 16.95 16.95
3,693,075,907,092,820,000.00 1.02 1.02
156,560,268,831,455,000,000.00 -6.13 6.13
437,240,950,949,530,000,000.00 -9.62 9.62
218,861,123,585,443,000,000.00 -6.78 6.78
1,818,792,728,874,160,000,000.00 -16.92 16.92
35,338,302,658,988,900,000.00 -2.60 2.60
206,040,554,716,342,000,000.00 -5.94 5.94
664,092,826,498,680,000,000.00 12.37 12.37
33,228,779,465,226,900,000,000.00 45.93 981.79
MSE MSE
581,324,572,634,816,000,000 0.11 575,722,680,811,300,000,000
599,609,646,576,616,000,000 0.12 573,233,552,797,589,000,000
672,459,507,176,091,000,000 0.13 572,909,990,779,775,000,000
768,017,537,707,882,000,000 0.14 574,158,140,608,834,000,000
890,356,336,708,663,000,000 0.15 576,590,492,328,313,000,000
1,050,247,572,481,040,000,000 0.16 579,945,116,903,448,000,000
1,261,928,541,831,970,000,000 0.17 584,039,285,196,981,000,000
1,543,924,113,572,500,000,000 0.18 588,741,831,298,882,000,000
1,922,117,870,716,060,000,000 0.19 593,956,178,747,796,000,000

Error Statistik

572,909,990,779,775,000,000
-3,363,646,230.822
24,144,586,209.948
19,800,238,532.55

Error Relatif

0.792
16.927

Plot Data Brown Perusahaan


0,000,000,000
0,000,000,000
0,000,000,000
0,000,000,000
Demand
0,000,000,000
Forecast
0,000,000,000
0,000,000,000
0,000,000,000
0,000,000,000
0

Brown
Periode Demand S't S''t a
1 54,211,750,000 54,211,750,000 54,211,750,000 -
2 36,352,525,000 51,890,050,750 53,909,929,098 49,870,172,403
3 53,781,000,000 52,135,874,153 53,679,301,955 50,592,446,350
4 84,301,000,000 56,317,340,513 54,022,246,967 58,612,434,058
5 43,030,900,000 54,590,103,246 54,096,068,283 55,084,138,209
6 48,781,125,000 53,834,936,074 54,062,121,096 53,607,751,052
7 26,949,900,000 50,339,881,384 53,578,229,934 47,101,532,835
8 65,058,075,000 52,253,246,554 53,405,982,094 51,100,511,015
9 31,219,950,000 49,518,918,002 52,900,663,762 46,137,172,242
10 66,426,850,000 51,716,949,162 52,746,780,864 50,687,117,460
11 64,423,700,000 53,368,826,771 52,827,646,832 53,910,006,710
12 79,343,975,000 56,745,596,041 53,336,980,229 60,154,211,852
13 55,218,250,000 56,547,041,055 53,754,288,137 59,339,793,974
14 74,359,850,000 58,862,706,218 54,418,382,487 63,307,029,949
15 92,078,825,000 63,180,801,660 55,557,496,980 70,804,106,340
16 73,843,750,000 64,566,984,944 56,728,730,415 72,405,239,473
17 85,183,350,000 67,247,112,401 58,096,120,073 76,398,104,729
18 82,487,575,000 69,228,372,539 59,543,312,894 78,913,432,184
19 43,862,050,000 65,930,750,609 60,373,679,797 71,487,821,421
20 75,203,400,000 67,136,195,030 61,252,806,777 73,019,583,283
21 93,713,900,000 70,591,296,676 62,466,810,464 78,715,782,888
22 94,370,300,000 73,682,567,108 63,924,858,828 83,440,275,389
23 115,308,525,000 79,093,941,634 65,896,839,593 92,291,043,676
24 128,220,725,000 85,480,423,472 68,442,705,497 102,518,141,446
25 80,951,750,000 84,891,695,920 70,581,074,252 99,202,317,589
26 98,112,125,000 86,610,351,701 72,664,880,320 100,555,823,081
27 116,751,475,000 90,528,697,730 74,987,176,583 106,070,218,876
28 90,746,750,000 90,557,044,525 77,011,259,416 104,102,829,634
29 103,859,500,000 92,286,363,737 78,997,022,978 105,575,704,496
30 126,826,575,000 96,776,591,201 81,308,366,847 112,244,815,555
31 114,350,100,000 99,061,147,345 83,616,228,311 114,506,066,378
32 133,357,400,000 103,519,660,190 86,203,674,456 120,835,645,924
33 114,566,550,000 104,955,755,865 88,641,445,039 121,270,066,692
34 105,234,125,000 104,991,943,853 90,767,009,885 119,216,877,821
35 111,644,300,000 105,856,750,152 92,728,676,119 118,984,824,184
36 117,967,475,000 107,431,144,382 94,639,996,993 120,222,291,771
37 125,385,075,000 109,765,155,362 96,606,267,581 122,924,043,143
38 136,990,075,000 113,304,394,915 98,777,024,135 127,831,765,696
39 124,609,425,000 114,774,048,826 100,856,637,345 128,691,460,308
40 127,455,750,000 116,422,669,979 102,880,221,587 129,965,118,371
41 160,841,675,000 122,197,140,632 105,391,421,063 139,002,860,200
42 130,806,800,000 123,316,396,350 107,721,667,850 138,911,124,849
43 144,327,750,000 126,047,872,324 110,104,074,432 141,991,670,216
44 152,772,325,000 129,522,051,172 112,628,411,408 146,415,690,936
45 133,730,425,000 130,069,139,770 114,895,706,095 145,242,573,444
46 114,043,100,000 127,985,754,600 116,597,412,401 139,374,096,798
47 141,889,275,000 129,793,212,252 118,312,866,381 141,273,558,122
48 123,190,550,000 128,934,866,159 119,693,726,352 138,176,005,965
49 114,063,900,000 127,001,640,558 120,643,755,199 133,359,525,917
50 141,195,000,000 128,846,777,286 121,710,148,070 135,983,406,501
51 158,762,625,000 132,735,837,489 123,143,487,695 142,328,187,282
52 122,803,425,000 131,444,623,865 124,222,635,397 138,666,612,333
53 138,337,825,000 132,340,740,013 125,277,988,997 139,403,491,028
54 149,804,575,000 134,611,038,561 126,491,285,440 142,730,791,682
55 159,287,775,000 137,819,014,298 127,963,890,192 147,674,138,404
56 160,225,100,000 140,731,805,439 129,623,719,174 151,839,891,705
57 184,787,000,000 146,458,980,732 131,812,303,177 161,105,658,288
58 167,557,750,000 149,201,820,737 134,072,940,459 164,330,701,015
59 177,187,300,000 152,839,933,041 136,512,649,495 169,167,216,587
60 152,837,900,000 152,839,668,746 138,635,161,998 167,044,175,494
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
Total
0.13
Perhitungan Peramalan Error
b m Ft+m et et
- - - -
-301,820,902.50 1 - -
-230,627,142.85 1 49,568,351,500 -4,212,648,500.00 4,212,648,500.00
342,945,012.54 1 50,361,819,208 -33,939,180,792.50 33,939,180,792.50
73,821,316.25 1 58,955,379,071 15,924,479,070.70 15,924,479,070.70
-33,947,187.22 1 55,157,959,525 6,376,834,524.86 6,376,834,524.86
-483,891,162.53 1 53,573,803,865 26,623,903,864.65 26,623,903,864.65
-172,247,839.30 1 46,617,641,673 -18,440,433,327.38 18,440,433,327.38
-505,318,331.96 1 50,928,263,175 19,708,313,175.20 19,708,313,175.20
-153,882,898.05 1 45,631,853,910 -20,794,996,089.65 20,794,996,089.65
80,865,967.86 1 50,533,234,562 -13,890,465,438.31 13,890,465,438.31
509,333,397.11 1 53,990,872,678 -25,353,102,322.39 25,353,102,322.39
417,307,907.40 1 60,663,545,249 5,445,295,249.29 5,445,295,249.29
664,094,350.60 1 59,757,101,882 -14,602,748,118.42 14,602,748,118.42
1,139,114,492.43 1 63,971,124,300 -28,107,700,700.23 28,107,700,700.23
1,171,233,435.36 1 71,943,220,832 -1,900,529,167.58 1,900,529,167.58
1,367,389,658.21 1 73,576,472,908 -11,606,877,091.58 11,606,877,091.58
1,447,192,820.56 1 77,765,494,388 -4,722,080,612.40 4,722,080,612.40
830,366,902.97 1 80,360,625,005 36,498,575,005.03 36,498,575,005.03
879,126,980.29 1 72,318,188,324 -2,885,211,675.72 2,885,211,675.72
1,214,003,686.85 1 73,898,710,263 -19,815,189,737.06 19,815,189,737.06
1,458,048,363.74 1 79,929,786,575 -14,440,513,425.13 14,440,513,425.13
1,971,980,764.82 1 84,898,323,752 -30,410,201,247.74 30,410,201,247.74
2,545,865,904.28 1 94,263,024,440 -33,957,700,559.59 33,957,700,559.59
2,138,368,755.05 1 105,064,007,351 24,112,257,350.72 24,112,257,350.72
2,083,806,068.34 1 101,340,686,344 3,228,561,343.81 3,228,561,343.81
2,322,296,263.22 1 102,639,629,149 -14,111,845,850.53 14,111,845,850.53
2,024,082,832.37 1 108,392,515,139 17,645,765,138.95 17,645,765,138.95
1,985,763,561.69 1 106,126,912,466 2,267,412,466.04 2,267,412,466.04
2,311,343,869.02 1 107,561,468,057 -19,265,106,942.76 19,265,106,942.76
2,307,861,464.76 1 114,556,159,424 206,059,424.05 206,059,424.05
2,587,446,144.21 1 116,813,927,843 -16,543,472,157.18 16,543,472,157.18
2,437,770,583.26 1 123,423,092,068 8,856,542,068.44 8,856,542,068.44
2,125,564,845.81 1 123,707,837,275 18,473,712,274.86 18,473,712,274.86
1,961,666,234.75 1 121,342,442,667 9,698,142,666.66 9,698,142,666.66
1,911,320,874.16 1 120,946,490,419 2,979,015,419.14 2,979,015,419.14
1,966,270,587.96 1 122,133,612,645 -3,251,462,355.09 3,251,462,355.09
2,170,756,553.40 1 124,890,313,731 -12,099,761,268.61 12,099,761,268.61
2,079,613,209.89 1 130,002,522,249 5,393,097,249.19 5,393,097,249.19
2,023,584,242.44 1 130,771,073,518 3,315,323,517.81 3,315,323,517.81
2,511,199,475.78 1 131,988,702,613 -28,852,972,386.93 28,852,972,386.93
2,330,246,787.25 1 141,514,059,676 10,707,259,676.11 10,707,259,676.11
2,382,406,581.60 1 141,241,371,636 -3,086,378,363.90 3,086,378,363.90
2,524,336,976.22 1 144,374,076,798 -8,398,248,202.03 8,398,248,202.03
2,267,294,687.00 1 148,940,027,912 15,209,602,912.10 15,209,602,912.10
1,701,706,305.59 1 147,509,868,131 33,466,768,131.17 33,466,768,131.17
1,715,453,980.63 1 141,075,803,104 -813,471,895.93 813,471,895.93
1,380,859,971.09 1 142,989,012,103 19,798,462,102.60 19,798,462,102.60
950,028,846.77 1 139,556,865,937 25,492,965,936.55 25,492,965,936.55
1,066,392,871.25 1 134,309,554,764 -6,885,445,235.86 6,885,445,235.86
1,433,339,624.36 1 137,049,799,372 -21,712,825,627.77 21,712,825,627.77
1,079,147,702.14 1 143,761,526,907 20,958,101,906.70 20,958,101,906.70
1,055,353,600.04 1 139,745,760,035 1,407,935,035.32 1,407,935,035.32
1,213,296,443.32 1 140,458,844,628 -9,345,730,371.72 9,345,730,371.72
1,472,604,751.51 1 143,944,088,125 -15,343,686,875.04 15,343,686,875.04
1,659,828,982.18 1 149,146,743,156 -11,078,356,844.20 11,078,356,844.20
2,188,584,002.57 1 153,499,720,687 -31,287,279,313.20 31,287,279,313.20
2,260,637,282.86 1 163,294,242,290 -4,263,507,709.59 4,263,507,709.59
2,439,709,035.64 1 166,591,338,297 -10,595,961,702.52 10,595,961,702.52
2,122,512,502.61 1 171,606,925,623 18,769,025,623.00 18,769,025,623.00
1 169,166,687,997
2 171,289,200,499
3 173,411,713,002
4 175,534,225,504
5 177,656,738,007
6 179,779,250,510
7 181,901,763,012
8 184,024,275,515
9 186,146,788,018
10 188,269,300,520
11 190,391,813,023
12 192,514,325,525
13 194,636,838,028
14 196,759,350,531
15 198,881,863,033
16 201,004,375,536
17 203,126,888,038
18 205,249,400,541
19 207,371,913,044
20 209,494,425,546
21 211,616,938,049
22 213,739,450,551
23 215,861,963,054
24 217,984,475,557
25 220,106,988,059
26 222,229,500,562
27 224,352,013,064
28 226,474,525,567
29 228,597,038,070
30 230,719,550,572
31 232,842,063,075
32 234,964,575,577
33 237,087,088,080
34 239,209,600,583
35 241,332,113,085
36 243,454,625,588
37 245,577,138,091
38 247,699,650,593
39 249,822,163,096
40 251,944,675,598
41 254,067,188,101
42 256,189,700,604
43 258,312,213,106
44 260,434,725,609
45 262,557,238,111
46 264,679,750,614
47 266,802,263,117
48 268,924,775,619
49 271,047,288,122
50 273,169,800,624
51 275,292,313,127
52 277,414,825,630
53 279,537,338,132
54 281,659,850,635
55 283,782,363,137
56 285,904,875,640
57 288,027,388,143
58 290,149,900,645
59 292,272,413,148
60 294,394,925,650
-143,451,680,775.59 848,578,503,041.49
gan Peramalan Error
et^2 Pe (%) Pe 0.1
- - - 0.2
- - - 0.3
17,746,407,384,552,200,000.00 -7.83 7.83 0.4
1,151,867,992,866,000,000,000.00 -40.26 40.26 0.5
253,589,033,673,163,000,000.00 37.01 37.01 0.6
40,664,018,557,462,500,000.00 13.07 13.07 0.7
708,832,256,993,899,000,000.00 98.79 98.79 0.8
340,049,581,301,690,000,000.00 -28.34 28.34 0.9
388,417,608,211,829,000,000.00 63.13 63.13
432,431,862,368,651,000,000.00 -31.31 31.31
192,945,030,092,746,000,000.00 -21.56 21.56
642,779,797,369,727,000,000.00 -31.95 31.95
29,651,240,351,932,900,000.00 9.86 9.86
213,240,252,609,941,000,000.00 -19.64 19.64
790,042,838,653,894,000,000.00 -30.53 30.53
3,612,011,116,806,380,000.00 -2.57 2.57
134,719,595,818,937,000,000.00 -13.63 13.63
Error Statistik
22,298,045,310,032,100,000.00 -5.72 5.72
1,332,145,977,397,960,000,000.00 83.21 83.21 MSE
8,324,446,413,688,740,000.00 -3.84 3.84 ME
392,641,744,315,489,000,000.00 -21.14 21.14 SSE
208,528,427,981,247,000,000.00 -15.30 15.30 MASE
924,780,339,928,201,000,000.00 -26.37 26.37
Error Relatif
1,153,125,427,295,050,000,000.00 -26.48 26.48
581,400,954,547,480,000,000.00 29.79 29.79 MPE
10,423,608,350,771,400,000.00 3.29 3.29 MAPE
199,144,193,308,987,000,000.00 -12.09 12.09
311,373,027,339,091,000,000.00 19.45 19.45
5,141,159,291,157,650,000.00 2.18 2.18
371,144,345,516,073,000,000.00 -15.19 15.19 Plot Data Brown Pesaing
42,460,486,238,605,300.00 0.18 0.18
350,000,000,000
273,686,471,015,432,000,000.00 -12.41 12.41
78,438,337,410,107,500,000.00 7.73 7.73 300,000,000,000
341,278,045,214,386,000,000.00 17.55 17.55 250,000,000,000
94,053,971,182,795,300,000.00 8.69 8.69
200,000,000,000
8,874,532,867,454,500,000.00 2.53 2.53
10,572,007,446,588,600,000.00 -2.59 2.59 150,000,000,000
146,404,222,757,279,000,000.00 -8.83 8.83
100,000,000,000
29,085,497,939,265,400,000.00 4.33 4.33
10,991,370,027,719,700,000.00 2.60 2.60 50,000,000,000
832,494,015,561,063,000,000.00 -17.94 17.94 0
114,645,409,771,665,000,000.00 8.19 8.19
50,000,000,000

9,525,731,405,141,530,000.00 -2.14 2.14


70,530,572,862,929,300,000.00 -5.50 5.50
231,332,020,743,750,000,000.00 11.37 11.37
1,120,024,569,145,580,000,000.00 29.35 29.35
661,736,525,468,483,000.00 -0.57 0.57
391,979,101,627,999,000,000.00 16.07 16.07
649,891,312,242,086,000,000.00 22.35 22.35
47,409,356,096,022,600,000.00 -4.88 4.88
471,446,796,741,961,000,000.00 -13.68 13.68
439,242,035,531,697,000,000.00 17.07 17.07
1,982,281,063,682,840,000.00 1.02 1.02
87,342,676,180,982,100,000.00 -6.24 6.24
235,428,726,919,135,000,000.00 -9.63 9.63
122,729,990,367,502,000,000.00 -6.91 6.91
978,893,846,822,136,000,000.00 -16.93 16.93
18,177,497,989,725,000,000.00 -2.54 2.54
112,274,404,401,366,000,000.00 -5.98 5.98
352,276,322,836,652,000,000.00 12.28 12.28
18,142,776,545,550,300,000,000.00 50.54 991.61
MSE MSE
317,143,517,860,526,000,000 0.11 314,196,094,710,520,000,000
327,588,843,342,696,000,000 0.12 312,919,801,731,448,000,000
367,467,242,448,832,000,000 0.13 312,806,492,164,660,000,000
419,753,994,918,221,000,000 0.14 313,537,589,346,379,000,000
486,719,834,799,749,000,000 0.15 314,905,233,849,696,000,000
574,240,725,718,506,000,000 0.16 316,768,953,411,007,000,000
690,062,107,575,989,000,000 0.17 319,030,774,920,397,000,000
844,253,191,060,420,000,000 0.18 321,620,392,691,719,000,000
1,050,876,133,154,660,000,000 0.19 324,486,058,683,831,000,000

Error Statistik

312,806,492,164,660,000,000
-2,473,304,840.958
17,840,805,064.810
14,630,663,845.54

Error Relatif

0.871
17.097

Plot Data Brown Pesaing


350,000,000,000

300,000,000,000

250,000,000,000
Demand
200,000,000,000
Forecast
150,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

50,000,000,000

0
50,000,000,000

0
0.4
Holt
Periode Demand St bt m
1 73,757,300,000 73,757,300,000 -23,812,275,000 -
2 49,945,025,000 49,945,025,000 -23,812,275,000 -
3 72,874,590,000 72,874,590,000 -23,812,275,000 -
4 114,801,590,000 75,358,025,000 -15,923,562,000 1
5 58,026,095,000 58,871,115,800 -16,092,566,160 1
6 66,639,710,000 52,323,013,784 -13,229,226,917 1
7 37,081,645,000 38,288,930,120 -13,470,683,941 1
8 88,368,190,000 50,238,223,708 -5,844,690,682 1
9 42,966,810,000 43,822,843,815 -6,015,897,445 1
10 90,580,740,000 58,916,463,822 316,957,790 1
11 87,575,945,000 70,570,430,967 3,718,060,597 1
12 107,797,160,000 87,691,958,938 7,739,100,809 1
13 75,372,190,000 87,407,511,848 5,332,036,439 1
14 101,231,380,000 96,136,280,973 6,351,056,245 1
15 125,070,835,000 111,520,736,331 9,061,075,979 1
16 100,921,385,000 112,717,641,386 6,701,824,702 1
17 115,804,915,000 117,973,645,652 6,268,078,571 1
18 112,391,720,000 119,501,722,534 4,846,078,064 1
19 60,323,335,000 98,738,014,359 -2,836,857,807 1
20 102,451,275,000 98,521,203,931 -2,050,843,594 1
21 127,914,140,000 109,047,872,202 1,722,409,966 1
22 128,388,795,000 117,817,687,301 3,836,631,506 1
23 157,239,750,000 135,888,491,284 8,106,883,249 1
24 174,208,620,000 156,080,672,720 11,732,472,705 1
25 110,397,185,000 144,846,761,255 4,842,557,454 1
26 133,627,170,000 143,264,459,225 2,915,099,609 1
27 158,885,485,000 151,261,929,301 4,439,810,749 1
28 123,848,790,000 142,960,560,030 617,456,743 1
29 141,866,405,000 142,893,372,064 412,063,330 1
30 172,763,295,000 155,088,579,236 3,947,006,483 1
31 156,008,025,000 157,824,561,432 3,583,699,197 1
32 181,491,060,000 169,441,380,377 5,993,635,121 1
33 156,064,460,000 167,686,793,299 3,669,168,461 1
34 143,796,500,000 160,332,177,056 362,033,050 1
35 152,397,690,000 157,375,602,064 -633,549,363 1
36 160,869,440,000 158,393,007,621 -138,262,887 1
37 170,848,935,000 163,292,420,840 1,373,039,945 1
38 186,873,990,000 173,548,872,471 4,038,063,451 1
39 170,087,275,000 174,587,071,553 3,138,104,140 1
40 173,575,015,000 176,065,111,416 2,640,084,857 1
41 218,582,920,000 194,656,285,764 7,425,411,704 1
42 178,514,605,000 192,654,860,481 4,597,360,608 1
43 196,678,320,000 197,022,660,653 4,528,492,477 1
44 208,123,925,000 204,180,261,878 5,317,225,102 1
45 182,399,395,000 198,658,250,188 2,065,454,064 1
46 155,857,625,000 182,777,272,551 -3,318,475,446 1
47 193,489,680,000 185,071,150,263 -1,634,769,499 1
48 167,845,465,000 177,200,014,459 -3,505,679,391 1
49 155,797,035,000 166,535,415,041 -5,653,355,399 1
50 192,971,910,000 173,717,999,785 -1,802,573,356 1
51 216,416,615,000 189,715,901,858 3,537,569,273 1
52 167,715,860,000 183,038,426,678 473,055,937 1
53 188,800,655,000 185,627,151,569 1,107,756,623 1
54 204,219,105,000 193,728,586,915 3,205,860,240 1
55 217,321,715,000 205,089,354,293 5,652,332,381 1
56 218,304,985,000 213,767,006,005 6,559,928,180 1
57 252,021,090,000 233,004,596,511 10,363,226,878 1
58 228,673,030,000 237,489,906,034 8,599,851,672 1
59 241,615,220,000 244,299,942,623 8,062,907,147 1
60 208,310,725,000 234,741,999,862 2,776,652,174 1
61 1
62 2
63 3
64 4
65 5
66 6
67 7
68 8
69 9
70 10
71 11
72 12
73 13
74 14
75 15
76 16
77 17
78 18
79 19
80 20
81 21
82 22
83 23
84 24
85 25
86 26
87 27
88 28
89 29
90 30
91 31
92 32
93 33
94 34
95 35
96 36
97 37
98 38
99 39
100 40
101 41
102 42
103 43
104 44
105 45
106 46
107 47
108 48
109 49
110 50
111 51
112 52
113 53
114 54
115 55
116 56
117 57
118 58
119 59
120 60
Total
0.3
Perhitungan Peramalan Error
Ft+m et et et^2 PE (%)
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
49,062,315,000 -65,739,275,000 65,739,275,000 4,321,652,277,525,630,000,000 -89.13
59,434,463,000 1,408,368,000 1,408,368,000 1,983,500,423,424,000,000 2.82
42,778,549,640 -23,861,160,360 23,861,160,360 569,354,973,725,635,000,000 -32.74
39,093,786,867 2,012,141,867 2,012,141,867 4,048,714,893,739,090,000 1.75
24,818,246,179 -63,549,943,821 63,549,943,821 4,038,595,359,594,300,000,000 -109.52
44,393,533,025 1,426,723,025 1,426,723,025 2,035,538,590,849,480,000 2.14
37,806,946,370 -52,773,793,630 52,773,793,630 2,785,073,294,129,990,000,000 -142.32
59,233,421,612 -28,342,523,388 28,342,523,388 803,298,631,997,047,000,000 -32.07
74,288,491,564 -33,508,668,436 33,508,668,436 1,122,830,860,355,150,000,000 -77.99
95,431,059,747 20,058,869,747 20,058,869,747 402,358,255,545,794,000,000 22.14
92,739,548,288 -8,491,831,712 8,491,831,712 72,111,205,827,282,200,000 -9.70
102,487,337,218 -22,583,497,782 22,583,497,782 510,014,372,089,675,000,000 -20.95
120,581,812,309 19,660,427,309 19,660,427,309 386,532,401,982,906,000,000 26.08
119,419,466,087 3,614,551,087 3,614,551,087 13,064,979,561,829,500,000 3.57
124,241,724,223 11,850,004,223 11,850,004,223 140,422,600,096,168,000,000 9.47
124,347,800,598 64,024,465,598 64,024,465,598 4,099,132,195,163,580,000,000 63.44
95,901,156,552 -6,550,118,448 6,550,118,448 42,904,051,688,260,400,000 -5.66
96,470,360,337 -31,443,779,663 31,443,779,663 988,711,279,476,865,000,000 -27.98
110,770,282,168 -17,618,512,832 17,618,512,832 310,411,994,402,808,000,000 -29.21
121,654,318,807 -35,585,431,193 35,585,431,193 1,266,322,913,218,570,000,000 -34.73
143,995,374,533 -30,213,245,467 30,213,245,467 912,840,201,657,867,000,000 -23.62
167,813,145,425 57,415,960,425 57,415,960,425 3,296,592,511,485,420,000,000 44.72
149,689,318,709 16,062,148,709 16,062,148,709 257,992,621,142,764,000,000 10.22
146,179,558,834 -12,705,926,166 12,705,926,166 161,440,559,730,941,000,000 -7.29
155,701,740,049 31,852,950,049 31,852,950,049 1,014,610,426,845,830,000,000 28.85
143,578,016,773 1,711,611,773 1,711,611,773 2,929,614,859,792,350,000 1.28
143,305,435,394 -29,457,859,606 29,457,859,606 867,765,492,583,952,000,000 -18.54
159,035,585,719 3,027,560,719 3,027,560,719 9,166,123,908,344,400,000 2.44
161,408,260,628 -20,082,799,372 20,082,799,372 403,318,830,609,313,000,000 -14.16
175,435,015,498 19,370,555,498 19,370,555,498 375,218,420,307,926,000,000 11.21
171,355,961,760 27,559,461,760 27,559,461,760 759,523,932,523,002,000,000 17.67
160,694,210,106 8,296,520,106 8,296,520,106 68,832,245,877,352,700,000 4.57
156,742,052,701 -4,127,387,299 4,127,387,299 17,035,325,912,965,800,000 -2.64
158,254,744,734 -12,594,190,266 12,594,190,266 158,613,628,453,140,000,000 -8.76
164,665,460,786 -22,208,529,214 22,208,529,214 493,218,769,863,141,000,000 -14.57
177,586,935,922 7,499,660,922 7,499,660,922 56,244,913,950,054,800,000 4.66
177,725,175,694 4,150,160,694 4,150,160,694 17,223,833,783,127,000,000 2.43
178,705,196,273 -39,877,723,727 39,877,723,727 1,590,232,849,630,960,000,000 -21.34
202,081,697,468 23,567,092,468 23,567,092,468 555,407,847,402,139,000,000 13.86
197,252,221,089 573,901,089 573,901,089 329,362,459,881,617,000 0.33
201,551,153,131 -6,572,771,869 6,572,771,869 43,201,330,045,370,600,000 -3.01
209,497,486,980 27,098,091,980 27,098,091,980 734,306,588,963,575,000,000 15.18
200,723,704,252 44,866,079,252 44,866,079,252 2,012,965,067,460,180,000,000 22.81
179,458,797,105 -14,030,882,895 14,030,882,895 196,865,674,810,294,000,000 -6.74
183,436,380,764 15,590,915,764 15,590,915,764 243,076,654,368,364,000,000 8.55
173,694,335,068 17,897,300,068 17,897,300,068 320,313,349,725,749,000,000 11.48
160,882,059,642 -32,089,850,358 32,089,850,358 1,029,758,495,989,030,000,000 -16.58
171,915,426,430 -44,501,188,570 44,501,188,570 1,980,355,784,182,090,000,000 -26.51
193,253,471,130 25,537,611,130 25,537,611,130 652,169,582,250,250,000,000 16.39
183,511,482,615 -5,289,172,385 5,289,172,385 27,975,344,514,688,400,000 -2.74
186,734,908,192 -17,484,196,808 17,484,196,808 305,697,138,005,985,000,000 -8.08
196,934,447,156 -20,387,267,844 20,387,267,844 415,640,690,159,778,000,000 -12.16
210,741,686,675 -7,563,298,325 7,563,298,325 57,203,481,555,740,200,000 -4.01
220,326,934,185 -31,694,155,815 31,694,155,815 1,004,519,512,801,810,000,000 -15.52
243,367,823,389 14,694,793,389 14,694,793,389 215,936,952,759,030,000,000 6.76
246,089,757,705 4,474,537,705 4,474,537,705 20,021,487,675,097,600,000 2.05
252,362,849,770 44,052,124,770 44,052,124,770 1,940,589,696,750,890,000,000 17.48
237,518,652,036
240,295,304,211
243,071,956,385
245,848,608,560
248,625,260,734
251,401,912,909
254,178,565,083
256,955,217,258
259,731,869,432
262,508,521,607
265,285,173,781
268,061,825,956
270,838,478,130
273,615,130,305
276,391,782,479
279,168,434,654
281,945,086,828
284,721,739,003
287,498,391,177
290,275,043,352
293,051,695,526
295,828,347,701
298,604,999,875
301,381,652,050
304,158,304,224
306,934,956,399
309,711,608,573
312,488,260,748
315,264,912,922
318,041,565,096
320,818,217,271
323,594,869,445
326,371,521,620
329,148,173,794
331,924,825,969
334,701,478,143
337,478,130,318
340,254,782,492
343,031,434,667
345,808,086,841
348,584,739,016
351,361,391,190
354,138,043,365
356,914,695,539
359,691,347,714
362,467,999,888
365,244,652,063
368,021,304,237
370,797,956,412
373,574,608,586
376,351,260,761
379,127,912,935
381,904,565,110
384,681,217,284
387,457,869,459
390,234,521,633
393,011,173,808
395,787,825,982
398,564,478,156
401,341,130,331
-221,574,393,121 1,260,283,571,382 44,099,993,745,295,300,000,000 -444
MSE
PE 0.1 5,113,767,438,277,160,000,000 0.1
- 0.2 2,879,926,813,698,480,000,000 0.2
- 0.3 2,013,399,927,895,050,000,000 0.3
- 0.4 1,575,498,215,227,530,000,000 0.4
89.13 0.1 0.5 1,375,581,853,196,350,000,000 0.4 0.5
2.82 0.6 1,274,334,904,104,840,000,000 0.6
32.74 0.7 1,192,982,407,942,900,000,000 0.7
1.75 0.8 1,112,683,090,017,740,000,000 0.8
109.52 0.9 1,048,178,524,260,280,000,000 0.9
2.14 0.1 1,662,711,509,681,480,000,000 0.1
142.32 0.2 1,101,040,450,749,920,000,000 0.2
32.07 0.3 930,251,239,497,463,000,000 0.3
77.99 0.4 864,484,895,671,550,000,000 0.4
22.14 0.2 0.5 839,952,986,321,678,000,000 0.5 0.5
9.70 0.6 840,205,593,792,338,000,000 0.6
20.95 0.7 851,569,265,454,900,000,000 0.7
26.08 0.8 861,916,194,375,090,000,000 0.8
3.57 0.9 866,392,146,932,494,000,000 0.9
9.47 0.1 1,052,312,378,222,770,000,000 0.1
63.44 0.2 827,768,431,088,786,000,000 0.2
5.66 0.3 776,781,020,134,495,000,000 0.3
27.98 0.4 770,784,598,076,601,000,000 0.4
29.21 0.3 0.5 780,423,122,834,270,000,000 0.6 0.5
34.73 0.6 795,037,629,948,911,000,000 0.6
23.62 0.7 812,951,561,388,975,000,000 0.7
44.72 0.8 836,156,547,765,835,000,000 0.8
10.22 0.9 865,911,564,007,250,000,000 0.9
7.29
28.85
1.28
Error Statistik
18.54
2.44 ME -3,887,270,054.749
14.16 SSE 28,062,428,410.757
11.21 MSE 773,684,100,794,655,000,000
17.67 MASE 22,110,238,094.42
4.57
Error Relatif
2.64
8.76 MPE -7.788
14.57 MAPE 20.923
4.66
2.43
21.34
Plot Data Holt Perusahaan
13.86
0.33 450,000,000,000
3.01
400,000,000,000
15.18
350,000,000,000

300,000,000,000

250,000,000,000 Demand
Forecast
450,000,000,000

400,000,000,000

22.81 350,000,000,000
6.74
300,000,000,000
8.55
11.48 250,000,000,000 Demand
16.58 Forecast
200,000,000,000
26.51
16.39 150,000,000,000
2.74
100,000,000,000
8.08
12.16 50,000,000,000
4.01
15.52 0
6.76
2.05
17.48
1,193
MSE MSE
865,296,095,467,899,000,000 0.1 810,115,699,142,438,000,000
759,776,026,521,644,000,000 0.2 818,652,052,668,196,000,000
750,841,568,416,026,000,000 0.3 859,182,091,616,172,000,000
765,455,770,494,814,000,000 0.4 908,889,806,117,606,000,000
788,646,764,941,348,000,000 0.7 0.5 963,673,764,780,492,000,000
817,285,739,890,983,000,000 0.6 1,022,441,600,624,490,000,000
850,820,134,666,480,000,000 0.7 1,085,065,326,230,870,000,000
888,224,189,526,504,000,000 0.8 1,152,117,934,325,970,000,000
927,897,939,349,681,000,000 0.9 1,224,793,379,391,350,000,000
801,972,433,947,077,000,000 0.1 851,511,725,331,060,000,000
753,201,318,351,378,000,000 0.2 880,928,180,021,234,000,000
765,641,755,680,662,000,000 0.3 936,728,018,580,378,000,000
793,159,452,028,864,000,000 0.4 1,002,096,740,550,640,000,000
827,144,316,034,482,000,000 0.8 0.5 1,074,628,196,600,050,000,000
865,270,963,861,843,000,000 0.6 1,154,464,298,897,800,000,000
906,077,323,153,629,000,000 0.7 1,242,751,267,163,680,000,000
948,198,307,067,026,000,000 0.8 1,341,311,502,684,530,000,000
990,557,150,878,069,000,000 0.9 1,452,435,026,864,860,000,000
791,067,693,176,104,000,000 0.1 913,350,803,926,025,000,000
775,695,637,395,646,000,000 0.2 964,348,350,037,525,000,000
802,854,454,265,724,000,000 0.3 1,039,706,787,285,020,000,000
840,957,025,330,755,000,000 0.4 1,127,187,536,249,010,000,000
884,095,341,114,061,000,000 0.9 0.5 1,226,100,366,116,540,000,000
930,307,909,803,327,000,000 0.6 1,337,971,655,134,310,000,000
978,452,826,999,865,000,000 0.7 1,465,260,339,840,570,000,000
1,027,867,117,208,020,000,000 0.8 1,611,009,256,623,430,000,000
1,078,398,015,992,300,000,000 0.9 1,778,657,735,137,220,000,000

Demand
Forecast
Demand
Forecast
0.4 0.3
Holt
Periode Demand St bt m Ft+m
1 54,211,750,000 54,211,750,000 -17,859,225,000 -
2 36,352,525,000 36,352,525,000 -17,859,225,000 -
3 53,781,000,000 53,781,000,000 -17,859,225,000 -
4 84,301,000,000 55,273,465,000 -12,053,718,000 1 35,921,775,000
5 43,030,900,000 43,144,208,200 -12,076,379,640 1 43,219,747,000
6 48,781,125,000 38,153,147,136 -9,950,784,067 1 31,067,828,560
7 26,949,900,000 27,701,377,841 -10,101,079,635 1 28,202,363,069
8 65,058,075,000 36,583,408,923 -4,406,146,420 1 17,600,298,206
9 31,219,950,000 31,794,337,502 -4,521,023,921 1 32,177,262,503
10 66,426,850,000 42,934,728,149 177,400,450 1 27,273,313,581
11 64,423,700,000 51,636,757,159 2,734,789,018 1 43,112,128,599
12 79,343,975,000 64,360,517,706 5,731,480,477 1 54,371,546,177
13 55,218,250,000 64,142,498,910 3,946,630,695 1 70,091,998,183
14 74,359,850,000 70,597,417,763 4,699,117,142 1 68,089,129,604
15 92,078,825,000 82,009,450,943 6,712,991,954 1 75,296,534,905
16 73,843,750,000 82,770,965,738 4,927,548,806 1 88,722,442,896
17 85,183,350,000 86,692,448,726 4,625,729,061 1 87,698,514,544
18 82,487,575,000 87,785,936,672 3,566,056,726 1 91,318,177,787
19 43,862,050,000 72,356,016,039 -2,132,736,482 1 91,351,993,399
20 75,203,400,000 72,215,327,735 -1,535,122,028 1 70,223,279,558
21 93,713,900,000 79,893,683,424 1,228,921,287 1 70,680,205,706
22 94,370,300,000 86,421,682,826 2,818,644,722 1 81,122,604,710
23 115,308,525,000 99,667,606,529 5,946,828,416 1 89,240,327,548
24 128,220,725,000 114,656,950,967 8,659,583,222 1 105,614,434,945
25 80,951,750,000 106,370,620,514 3,575,809,120 1 123,316,534,189
26 98,112,125,000 105,212,707,780 2,155,692,564 1 109,946,429,633
27 116,751,475,000 111,121,630,206 3,281,661,523 1 107,368,400,344
28 90,746,750,000 104,940,675,037 442,876,515 1 114,403,291,729
29 103,859,500,000 104,773,930,931 259,990,329 1 105,383,551,552
30 126,826,575,000 113,750,982,756 2,875,108,778 1 105,033,921,260
31 114,350,100,000 115,715,694,920 2,601,989,794 1 116,626,091,534
32 133,357,400,000 124,333,570,828 4,406,755,628 1 118,317,684,714
33 114,566,550,000 123,070,815,874 2,705,902,453 1 128,740,326,456
34 105,234,125,000 117,559,680,996 240,791,254 1 125,776,718,327
35 111,644,300,000 115,338,003,350 -497,949,416 1 117,800,472,250
36 117,967,475,000 116,091,022,360 -122,658,888 1 114,840,053,934
37 125,385,075,000 119,735,048,083 1,007,346,495 1 115,968,363,472
38 136,990,075,000 127,241,466,747 2,957,068,146 1 120,742,394,579
39 124,609,425,000 127,962,890,936 2,286,374,959 1 130,198,534,893
40 127,455,750,000 129,131,859,537 1,951,153,051 1 130,249,265,894
41 160,841,675,000 142,986,477,553 5,522,192,541 1 131,083,012,588
42 130,806,800,000 141,427,922,056 3,397,968,130 1 148,508,670,093
43 144,327,750,000 144,626,634,111 3,338,191,307 1 144,825,890,186
44 152,772,325,000 149,887,825,251 3,915,091,257 1 147,964,825,419
45 133,730,425,000 145,773,919,905 1,506,392,276 1 153,802,916,508
46 114,043,100,000 133,985,427,309 -2,482,073,186 1 147,280,312,181
47 141,889,275,000 135,657,722,474 -1,235,762,680 1 131,503,354,123
48 123,190,550,000 129,929,395,876 -2,583,531,856 1 134,421,959,793
49 114,063,900,000 122,033,078,412 -4,177,367,538 1 127,345,864,020
50 141,195,000,000 127,191,426,524 -1,376,652,843 1 117,855,710,874
51 158,762,625,000 138,993,914,209 2,577,089,315 1 125,814,773,682
52 122,803,425,000 134,063,972,115 324,979,892 1 141,571,003,524
53 138,337,825,000 135,968,501,204 798,844,652 1 134,388,952,007
54 149,804,575,000 141,982,237,513 2,363,312,149 1 136,767,345,856
55 159,287,775,000 150,322,439,797 4,156,379,189 1 144,345,549,662
56 160,225,100,000 156,777,331,392 4,845,932,911 1 154,478,818,987
57 184,787,000,000 170,888,758,582 7,625,581,195 1 161,623,264,303
58 167,557,750,000 174,131,703,866 6,310,790,421 1 178,514,339,776
59 177,187,300,000 179,140,416,572 5,920,167,107 1 180,442,494,287
60 152,837,900,000 172,171,510,208 2,053,445,065 1 185,060,583,679
61 1 174,224,955,273
62 2 176,278,400,339
63 3 178,331,845,404
64 4 180,385,290,469
65 5 182,438,735,535
66 6 184,492,180,600
67 7 186,545,625,666
68 8 188,599,070,731
69 9 190,652,515,797
70 10 192,705,960,862
71 11 194,759,405,928
72 12 196,812,850,993
73 13 198,866,296,058
74 14 200,919,741,124
75 15 202,973,186,189
76 16 205,026,631,255
77 17 207,080,076,320
78 18 209,133,521,386
79 19 211,186,966,451
80 20 213,240,411,517
81 21 215,293,856,582
82 22 217,347,301,647
83 23 219,400,746,713
84 24 221,454,191,778
85 25 223,507,636,844
86 26 225,561,081,909
87 27 227,614,526,975
88 28 229,667,972,040
89 29 231,721,417,106
90 30 233,774,862,171
91 31 235,828,307,236
92 32 237,881,752,302
93 33 239,935,197,367
94 34 241,988,642,433
95 35 244,042,087,498
96 36 246,095,532,564
97 37 248,148,977,629
98 38 250,202,422,695
99 39 252,255,867,760
100 40 254,309,312,825
101 41 256,362,757,891
102 42 258,416,202,956
103 43 260,469,648,022
104 44 262,523,093,087
105 45 264,576,538,153
106 46 266,629,983,218
107 47 268,683,428,284
108 48 270,736,873,349
109 49 272,790,318,415
110 50 274,843,763,480
111 51 276,897,208,545
112 52 278,950,653,611
113 53 281,004,098,676
114 54 283,057,543,742
115 55 285,110,988,807
116 56 287,164,433,873
117 57 289,217,878,938
118 58 291,271,324,004
119 59 293,324,769,069
120 60 295,378,214,134
Total
Perhitungan Peramalan Error
et et et^2 PE (%) PE
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
-48,379,225,000 48,379,225,000 2,340,549,411,600,620,000,000 -89.24 89.24
188,847,000 188,847,000 35,663,189,409,000,000 0.52 0.52
-17,713,296,440 17,713,296,440 313,760,870,771,317,000,000 -32.94 32.94
1,252,463,069 1,252,463,069 1,568,663,738,707,920,000 1.49 1.49
-47,457,776,794 47,457,776,794 2,252,240,578,245,830,000,000 -110.29 110.29
957,312,503 957,312,503 916,447,229,050,185,000 1.96 1.96
-39,153,536,419 39,153,536,419 1,532,999,414,078,870,000,000 -145.28 145.28
-21,311,571,401 21,311,571,401 454,183,075,599,551,000,000 -32.76 32.76
-24,972,428,823 24,972,428,823 623,622,201,321,322,000,000 -79.99 79.99
14,873,748,183 14,873,748,183 221,228,385,005,086,000,000 22.39 22.39
-6,270,720,396 6,270,720,396 39,321,934,280,429,400,000 -9.73 9.73
-16,782,290,095 16,782,290,095 281,645,260,840,716,000,000 -21.15 21.15
14,878,692,896 14,878,692,896 221,375,502,306,530,000,000 26.95 26.95
2,515,164,544 2,515,164,544 6,326,052,682,749,130,000 3.38 3.38
8,830,602,787 8,830,602,787 77,979,545,582,954,700,000 9.59 9.59
47,489,943,399 47,489,943,399 2,255,294,723,996,160,000,000 64.31 64.31
-4,980,120,442 4,980,120,442 24,801,599,620,877,600,000 -5.85 5.85
-23,033,694,294 23,033,694,294 530,551,072,824,089,000,000 -27.92 27.92
-13,247,695,290 13,247,695,290 175,501,430,483,540,000,000 -30.20 30.20
-26,068,197,452 26,068,197,452 679,550,918,403,518,000,000 -34.66 34.66
-22,606,290,055 22,606,290,055 511,044,350,071,504,000,000 -24.12 24.12
42,364,784,189 42,364,784,189 1,794,774,939,397,760,000,000 44.89 44.89
11,834,304,633 11,834,304,633 140,050,766,153,643,000,000 10.26 10.26
-9,383,074,656 9,383,074,656 88,042,090,004,655,700,000 -7.32 7.32
23,656,541,729 23,656,541,729 559,631,966,565,553,000,000 29.22 29.22
1,524,051,552 1,524,051,552 2,322,733,134,197,300,000 1.55 1.55
-21,792,653,740 21,792,653,740 474,919,757,022,898,000,000 -18.67 18.67
2,275,991,534 2,275,991,534 5,180,137,461,418,920,000 2.51 2.51
-15,039,715,286 15,039,715,286 226,193,035,891,788,000,000 -14.48 14.48
14,173,776,456 14,173,776,456 200,895,939,028,096,000,000 11.18 11.18
20,542,593,327 20,542,593,327 421,998,140,590,942,000,000 17.96 17.96
6,156,172,250 6,156,172,250 37,898,456,771,852,700,000 4.62 4.62
-3,127,421,066 3,127,421,066 9,780,762,524,483,480,000 -2.73 2.73
-9,416,711,528 9,416,711,528 88,674,455,997,593,400,000 -8.95 8.95
-16,247,680,421 16,247,680,421 263,987,119,078,775,000,000 -14.55 14.55
5,589,109,893 5,589,109,893 31,238,149,394,604,900,000 4.74 4.74
2,793,515,894 2,793,515,894 7,803,731,051,949,880,000 2.23 2.23
-29,758,662,412 29,758,662,412 885,577,988,557,040,000,000 -21.72 21.72
17,701,870,093 17,701,870,093 313,356,204,806,908,000,000 14.21 14.21
498,140,186 498,140,186 248,143,644,536,425,000 0.39 0.39
-4,807,499,581 4,807,499,581 23,112,052,224,853,900,000 -2.99 2.99
20,072,491,508 20,072,491,508 402,904,915,346,726,000,000 15.35 15.35
33,237,212,181 33,237,212,181 1,104,712,273,561,860,000,000 23.03 23.03
-10,385,920,877 10,385,920,877 107,867,352,465,491,000,000 -6.80 6.80
11,231,409,793 11,231,409,793 126,144,565,945,280,000,000 8.40 8.40
13,281,964,020 13,281,964,020 176,410,568,238,224,000,000 11.65 11.65
-23,339,289,126 23,339,289,126 544,722,416,899,970,000,000 -16.45 16.45
-32,947,851,318 32,947,851,318 1,085,560,906,504,290,000,000 -26.75 26.75
18,767,578,524 18,767,578,524 352,222,003,660,787,000,000 16.45 16.45
-3,948,872,993 3,948,872,993 15,593,597,916,011,700,000 -2.80 2.80
-13,037,229,144 13,037,229,144 169,969,343,762,526,000,000 -8.21 8.21
-14,942,225,338 14,942,225,338 223,270,098,044,480,000,000 -12.17 12.17
-5,746,281,013 5,746,281,013 33,019,745,483,506,800,000 -4.15 4.15
-23,163,735,697 23,163,735,697 536,558,651,439,871,000,000 -15.46 15.46
10,956,589,776 10,956,589,776 120,046,859,528,823,000,000 6.88 6.88
3,255,194,287 3,255,194,287 10,596,289,848,061,500,000 2.03 2.03
32,222,683,679 32,222,683,679 1,038,301,343,499,320,000,000 17.44 17.44
-165,938,917,212 932,184,416,987 24,168,084,603,321,600,000,000 -453 1,204
MSE MSE
0.1 2,976,293,747,932,110,000,000 0.1 481,564,413,858,580,000,000
0.2 1,664,308,044,230,660,000,000 0.2 417,970,335,886,030,000,000
0.3 1,158,502,483,341,490,000,000 0.3 410,969,469,896,310,000,000
0.4 903,180,604,133,075,000,000 0.4 417,753,358,317,955,000,000
0.1 0.5 785,307,152,247,448,000,000 0.4 0.5 429,547,641,976,554,000,000
0.6 724,494,389,465,386,000,000 0.6 444,465,717,449,581,000,000
0.7 675,644,501,088,135,000,000 0.7 462,138,956,288,629,000,000
0.8 627,899,237,649,874,000,000 0.8 481,965,571,904,963,000,000
0.9 589,628,765,944,225,000,000 0.9 503,041,447,077,981,000,000
0.1 952,236,987,327,603,000,000 0.1 442,675,223,171,051,000,000
0.2 622,092,829,191,939,000,000 0.2 412,109,675,277,290,000,000
0.3 521,062,264,459,353,000,000 0.3 417,418,323,099,282,000,000
0.4 481,322,944,039,888,000,000 0.4 431,548,193,126,790,000,000
0.2 0.5 465,702,651,245,612,000,000 0.5 0.5 449,428,777,536,852,000,000
0.6 464,524,776,300,598,000,000 0.6 469,677,178,967,881,000,000
0.7 469,828,922,682,220,000,000 0.7 491,452,047,875,317,000,000
0.8 474,627,619,549,128,000,000 0.8 513,996,478,542,487,000,000
0.9 476,127,433,641,269,000,000 0.9 536,733,741,379,694,000,000
0.1 592,884,661,040,273,000,000 0.1 434,359,729,326,444,000,000
0.2 459,837,301,654,808,000,000 0.2 423,151,589,746,721,000,000
0.3 428,477,058,752,974,000,000 0.3 436,873,259,042,438,000,000
0.4 423,413,271,873,398,000,000 0.4 456,994,888,538,308,000,000
0.3 0.5 427,515,013,301,349,000,000 0.6 0.5 480,042,940,226,098,000,000
0.6 434,564,175,102,512,000,000 0.6 504,877,616,111,102,000,000
0.7 443,525,297,520,586,000,000 0.7 530,860,607,647,147,000,000
0.8 455,471,398,422,777,000,000 0.8 557,636,263,383,774,000,000
0.9 471,078,291,890,485,000,000 0.9 585,131,333,797,083,000,000

Error Statistik

ME -2,911,209,073.896
SSE 20,774,333,667.895
MSE 424,001,484,268,801,000,000
MASE 16,354,112,578.72

Error Relatif

MPE -7.943
MAPE 21.121

Plot Data Holt Pesaing


350,000,000,000

300,000,000,000
Plot Data Holt Pesaing
350,000,000,000

300,000,000,000

250,000,000,000

200,000,000,000 Demand
Forecast

150,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

50,000,000,000

0
MSE
0.1 443,317,457,392,749,000,000
0.2 445,857,681,012,794,000,000
0.3 467,137,247,076,806,000,000
0.4 493,764,076,197,448,000,000
0.7 0.5 523,323,226,106,985,000,000
0.6 555,171,977,993,192,000,000
0.7 589,227,367,801,828,000,000
0.8 625,793,755,592,417,000,000
0.9 665,508,086,295,965,000,000
0.1 464,929,323,435,604,000,000
0.2 479,326,367,554,676,000,000
0.3 509,117,559,466,511,000,000
0.4 544,409,099,873,059,000,000
0.8 0.5 583,750,806,186,730,000,000
0.6 627,176,906,312,398,000,000
0.7 675,289,198,038,825,000,000
0.8 729,059,372,042,922,000,000
0.9 789,712,268,613,398,000,000
0.1 497,893,773,251,187,000,000
0.2 524,366,421,236,226,000,000
0.3 564,925,282,214,180,000,000
0.4 612,319,175,046,769,000,000
0.9 0.5 666,052,488,220,415,000,000
0.6 726,908,558,629,451,000,000
0.7 796,191,937,241,067,000,000
0.8 875,525,097,443,889,000,000
0.9 966,742,542,422,674,000,000
Periode Demand t^2 d.t F=a+bt
1 73,757,300,000 1 73,757,300,000 -35,853,604,920.02
2 49,945,025,000 4 99,890,050,000 -30,527,314,633.15
3 72,874,590,000 9 218,623,770,000 -25,201,024,346.28
4 114,801,590,000 16 459,206,360,000 -19,874,734,059.42
5 58,026,095,000 25 290,130,475,000 -14,548,443,772.55
6 66,639,710,000 36 399,838,260,000 -9,222,153,485.69
7 37,081,645,000 49 259,571,515,000 -3,895,863,198.82
8 88,368,190,000 64 706,945,520,000 1,430,427,088.05
9 42,966,810,000 81 386,701,290,000 6,756,717,374.91
10 90,580,740,000 100 905,807,400,000 12,083,007,661.78
11 87,575,945,000 121 963,335,395,000 17,409,297,948.65
12 107,797,160,000 144 1,293,565,920,000 22,735,588,235.51
13 75,372,190,000 169 979,838,470,000 28,061,878,522.38
14 101,231,380,000 196 1,417,239,320,000 33,388,168,809.24
15 125,070,835,000 225 1,876,062,525,000 38,714,459,096.11
16 100,921,385,000 256 1,614,742,160,000 44,040,749,382.98
17 115,804,915,000 289 1,968,683,555,000 49,367,039,669.84
18 112,391,720,000 324 2,023,050,960,000 54,693,329,956.71
19 60,323,335,000 361 1,146,143,365,000 60,019,620,243.58
20 102,451,275,000 400 2,049,025,500,000 65,345,910,530.44
21 127,914,140,000 441 2,686,196,940,000 70,672,200,817.31
22 128,388,795,000 484 2,824,553,490,000 75,998,491,104.17
23 157,239,750,000 529 3,616,514,250,000 81,324,781,391.04
24 174,208,620,000 576 4,181,006,880,000 86,651,071,677.91
25 110,397,185,000 625 2,759,929,625,000 91,977,361,964.77
26 133,627,170,000 676 3,474,306,420,000 97,303,652,251.64
27 158,885,485,000 729 4,289,908,095,000 102,629,942,538.51
28 123,848,790,000 784 3,467,766,120,000 107,956,232,825.37
29 141,866,405,000 841 4,114,125,745,000 113,282,523,112.24
30 172,763,295,000 900 5,182,898,850,000 118,608,813,399.10
31 156,008,025,000 961 4,836,248,775,000 123,935,103,685.97
32 181,491,060,000 1024 5,807,713,920,000 129,261,393,972.84
33 156,064,460,000 1089 5,150,127,180,000 134,587,684,259.70
34 143,796,500,000 1156 4,889,081,000,000 139,913,974,546.57
35 152,397,690,000 1225 5,333,919,150,000 145,240,264,833.44
36 160,869,440,000 1296 5,791,299,840,000 150,566,555,120.30
37 170,848,935,000 1369 6,321,410,595,000 155,892,845,407.17
38 186,873,990,000 1444 7,101,211,620,000 161,219,135,694.03
39 170,087,275,000 1521 6,633,403,725,000 166,545,425,980.90
40 173,575,015,000 1600 6,943,000,600,000 171,871,716,267.77
41 218,582,920,000 1681 8,961,899,720,000 177,198,006,554.63
42 178,514,605,000 1764 7,497,613,410,000 182,524,296,841.50
43 196,678,320,000 1849 8,457,167,760,000 187,850,587,128.37
44 208,123,925,000 1936 9,157,452,700,000 193,176,877,415.23
45 182,399,395,000 2025 8,207,972,775,000 198,503,167,702.10
46 155,857,625,000 2116 7,169,450,750,000 203,829,457,988.96
47 193,489,680,000 2209 9,094,014,960,000 209,155,748,275.83
48 167,845,465,000 2304 8,056,582,320,000 214,482,038,562.70
49 155,797,035,000 2401 7,634,054,715,000 219,808,328,849.56
50 192,971,910,000 2500 9,648,595,500,000 225,134,619,136.43
51 216,416,615,000 2601 11,037,247,365,000 230,460,909,423.30
52 167,715,860,000 2704 8,721,224,720,000 235,787,199,710.16
53 188,800,655,000 2809 10,006,434,715,000 241,113,489,997.03
54 204,219,105,000 2916 11,027,831,670,000 246,439,780,283.89
55 217,321,715,000 3025 11,952,694,325,000 251,766,070,570.76
56 218,304,985,000 3136 12,225,079,160,000 257,092,360,857.63
57 252,021,090,000 3249 14,365,202,130,000 262,418,651,144.49
58 228,673,030,000 3364 13,263,035,740,000 267,744,941,431.36
59 241,615,220,000 3481 14,255,297,980,000 273,071,231,718.23
60 208,310,725,000 3600 12,498,643,500,000 278,397,522,005.09
61 283,723,812,291.96
62 289,050,102,578.82
63 294,376,392,865.69
64 299,702,683,152.56
65 305,028,973,439.42
66 310,355,263,726.29
67 315,681,554,013.16
68 321,007,844,300.02
69 326,334,134,586.89
70 331,660,424,873.75
71 336,986,715,160.62
72 342,313,005,447.49
73 347,639,295,734.35
74 352,965,586,021.22
75 358,291,876,308.08
76 363,618,166,594.95
77 368,944,456,881.82
78 374,270,747,168.68
79 379,597,037,455.55
80 384,923,327,742.42
81 390,249,618,029.28
82 395,575,908,316.15
83 400,902,198,603.01
84 406,228,488,889.88
85 411,554,779,176.75
86 416,881,069,463.61
87 422,207,359,750.48
88 427,533,650,037.35
89 432,859,940,324.21
90 438,186,230,611.08
91 443,512,520,897.94
92 448,838,811,184.81
93 454,165,101,471.68
94 459,491,391,758.54
95 464,817,682,045.41
96 470,143,972,332.28
97 475,470,262,619.14
98 480,796,552,906.01
99 486,122,843,192.87
100 491,449,133,479.74
101 496,775,423,766.61
102 502,101,714,053.47
103 507,428,004,340.34
104 512,754,294,627.21
105 518,080,584,914.07
106 523,406,875,200.94
107 528,733,165,487.80
108 534,059,455,774.67
109 539,385,746,061.54
110 544,712,036,348.40
111 550,038,326,635.27
112 555,364,616,922.14
113 560,690,907,209.00
114 566,017,197,495.87
115 571,343,487,782.73
116 576,669,778,069.60
117 581,996,068,356.47
118 587,322,358,643.33
119 592,648,648,930.20
120 597,974,939,217.07
Total
Forecast et et et^2 Pe (%)
-35,853,604,921 -109,610,904,921 109,610,904,921 12,014,550,477,600,500,000,000 -148.61
-30,527,314,634 -80,472,339,634 80,472,339,634 6,475,797,446,169,850,000,000 -161.12
-25,201,024,347 -98,075,614,347 98,075,614,347 9,618,826,129,541,470,000,000 -134.58
-19,874,734,060 -134,676,324,060 134,676,324,060 18,137,712,262,314,100,000,000 -117.31
-14,548,443,773 -72,574,538,773 72,574,538,773 5,267,063,678,113,680,000,000 -125.07
-9,222,153,486 -75,861,863,486 75,861,863,486 5,755,022,331,568,500,000,000 -113.84
-3,895,863,199 -40,977,508,199 40,977,508,199 1,679,156,178,199,110,000,000 -110.51
1,430,427,089 -86,937,762,911 86,937,762,911 7,558,174,619,969,250,000,000 -98.38
6,756,717,375 -36,210,092,625 36,210,092,625 1,311,170,807,911,080,000,000 -84.27
12,083,007,662 -78,497,732,338 78,497,732,338 6,161,893,982,208,290,000,000 -86.66
17,409,297,949 -70,166,647,051 70,166,647,051 4,923,358,358,379,610,000,000 -80.12
22,735,588,236 -85,061,571,764 85,061,571,764 7,235,470,990,962,120,000,000 -78.91
28,061,878,523 -47,310,311,477 47,310,311,477 2,238,265,572,050,760,000,000 -62.77
33,388,168,810 -67,843,211,190 67,843,211,190 4,602,701,304,570,940,000,000 -67.02
38,714,459,097 -86,356,375,903 86,356,375,903 7,457,423,659,100,240,000,000 -69.05
44,040,749,383 -56,880,635,617 56,880,635,617 3,235,406,708,193,930,000,000 -56.36
49,367,039,670 -66,437,875,330 66,437,875,330 4,413,991,278,364,620,000,000 -57.37
54,693,329,957 -57,698,390,043 57,698,390,043 3,329,104,213,554,160,000,000 -51.34
60,019,620,244 -303,714,756 303,714,756 92,242,653,012,139,500 -0.50
65,345,910,531 -37,105,364,469 37,105,364,469 1,376,808,072,377,330,000,000 -36.22
70,672,200,818 -57,241,939,182 57,241,939,182 3,276,639,601,315,790,000,000 -44.75
75,998,491,105 -52,390,303,895 52,390,303,895 2,744,743,942,210,450,000,000 -40.81
81,324,781,392 -75,914,968,608 75,914,968,608 5,763,082,458,753,630,000,000 -48.28
86,651,071,678 -87,557,548,322 87,557,548,322 7,666,324,268,159,360,000,000 -50.26
91,977,361,965 -18,419,823,035 18,419,823,035 339,289,880,640,717,000,000 -16.69
97,303,652,252 -36,323,517,748 36,323,517,748 1,319,397,941,589,270,000,000 -27.18
102,629,942,539 -56,255,542,461 56,255,542,461 3,164,686,057,581,370,000,000 -35.41
107,956,232,826 -15,892,557,174 15,892,557,174 252,573,373,528,859,000,000 -12.83
113,282,523,113 -28,583,881,887 28,583,881,887 817,038,303,729,967,000,000 -20.15
118,608,813,400 -54,154,481,600 54,154,481,600 2,932,707,877,364,740,000,000 -31.35
123,935,103,686 -32,072,921,314 32,072,921,314 1,028,672,281,614,040,000,000 -20.56
129,261,393,973 -52,229,666,027 52,229,666,027 2,727,938,013,291,960,000,000 -28.78
134,587,684,260 -21,476,775,740 21,476,775,740 461,251,896,186,253,000,000 -13.76
139,913,974,547 -3,882,525,453 3,882,525,453 15,074,003,893,192,900,000 -2.70
145,240,264,834 -7,157,425,166 7,157,425,166 51,228,735,006,890,100,000 -4.70
150,566,555,121 -10,302,884,879 10,302,884,879 106,149,436,829,927,000,000 -6.40
155,892,845,408 -14,956,089,592 14,956,089,592 223,684,615,883,931,000,000 -8.75
161,219,135,695 -25,654,854,305 25,654,854,305 658,171,549,410,777,000,000 -13.73
166,545,425,981 -3,541,849,019 3,541,849,019 12,544,694,473,391,300,000 -2.08
171,871,716,268 -1,703,298,732 1,703,298,732 2,901,226,570,432,810,000 -0.98
177,198,006,555 -41,384,913,445 41,384,913,445 1,712,711,060,850,140,000,000 -18.93
182,524,296,842 4,009,691,842 4,009,691,842 16,077,628,667,801,400,000 2.25
187,850,587,129 -8,827,732,871 8,827,732,871 77,928,867,641,733,900,000 -4.49
193,176,877,416 -14,947,047,584 14,947,047,584 223,414,231,478,360,000,000 -7.18
198,503,167,703 16,103,772,703 16,103,772,703 259,331,495,269,888,000,000 8.83
203,829,457,989 47,971,832,989 47,971,832,989 2,301,296,760,324,510,000,000 30.78
209,155,748,276 15,666,068,276 15,666,068,276 245,425,695,228,294,000,000 8.10
214,482,038,563 46,636,573,563 46,636,573,563 2,174,969,993,697,110,000,000 27.79
219,808,328,850 64,011,293,850 64,011,293,850 4,097,445,740,351,050,000,000 41.09
225,134,619,137 32,162,709,137 32,162,709,137 1,034,439,859,031,260,000,000 16.67
230,460,909,424 14,044,294,424 14,044,294,424 197,242,205,867,998,000,000 6.49
235,787,199,711 68,071,339,711 68,071,339,711 4,633,707,290,050,370,000,000 40.59
241,113,489,998 52,312,834,998 52,312,834,998 2,736,632,705,527,970,000,000 27.71
246,439,780,284 42,220,675,284 42,220,675,284 1,782,585,421,436,970,000,000 20.67
251,766,070,571 34,444,355,571 34,444,355,571 1,186,413,630,701,480,000,000 15.85
257,092,360,858 38,787,375,858 38,787,375,858 1,504,460,525,949,760,000,000 17.77
262,418,651,145 10,397,561,145 10,397,561,145 108,109,277,764,014,000,000 4.13
267,744,941,432 39,071,911,432 39,071,911,432 1,526,614,262,950,050,000,000 17.09
273,071,231,719 31,456,011,719 31,456,011,719 989,480,673,265,865,000,000 13.02
278,397,522,006 70,086,797,006 70,086,797,006 4,912,159,114,560,250,000,000 33.65
283,723,812,292
289,050,102,579
294,376,392,866
299,702,683,153
305,028,973,440
310,355,263,727
315,681,554,014
321,007,844,301
326,334,134,587
331,660,424,874
336,986,715,161
342,313,005,448
347,639,295,735
352,965,586,022
358,291,876,309
363,618,166,595
368,944,456,882
374,270,747,169
379,597,037,456
384,923,327,743
390,249,618,030
395,575,908,317
400,902,198,604
406,228,488,890
411,554,779,177
416,881,069,464
422,207,359,751
427,533,650,038
432,859,940,325
438,186,230,612
443,512,520,898
448,838,811,185
454,165,101,472
459,491,391,759
464,817,682,046
470,143,972,333
475,470,262,620
480,796,552,907
486,122,843,193
491,449,133,480
496,775,423,767
502,101,714,054
507,428,004,341
512,754,294,628
518,080,584,915
523,406,875,201
528,733,165,488
534,059,455,775
539,385,746,062
544,712,036,349
550,038,326,636
555,364,616,923
560,690,907,210
566,017,197,496
571,343,487,783
576,669,778,070
581,996,068,357
587,322,358,644
592,648,648,931
597,974,939,218
-1,482,476,227,425 2,737,386,426,441 178,076,536,912,452,000,000,000 -1,868
Pe Nilai
148.61 X 1830 a
161.12 Y 8,758,793,740,000 b
134.58 XY 317,774,277,845,000
117.31
125.07
113.84
110.51
Error Statistik
98.38
84.27 ME -24,707,937,123.750
86.66 SSE 54,938,569,223.694
80.12 MSE 2,967,942,281,874,210,000,000
78.91 MASE 45,623,107,107.35
62.77
Error Relatif
67.02
69.05 MPE -31.139
56.36 MAPE 42.220
57.37
51.34
0.50
36.22
44.75
40.81
48.28
50.26
16.69 1830 8758793740000 73810 317,774,277,845,000
27.18
35.41 b 5326290286.86623
12.83 a -41179895206.8832
20.15
31.35
20.56 Plot Data RL Perusahaan
28.78
13.76 700,000,000,000
2.70
4.70 600,000,000,000
6.40
8.75
500,000,000,000
13.73
2.08
400,000,000,000 Dem
0.98
18.93 Fore
2.25 300,000,000,000
4.49
200,000,000,000

100,000,000,000
Dem
Fore
300,000,000,000

7.18 200,000,000,000
8.83
30.78 100,000,000,000
8.10
27.79 0
41.09
16.67
-100,000,000,000
6.49
40.59
27.71
20.67
15.85
17.77
4.13
17.09
13.02
33.65
2,533
Nilai
-41,179,895,207
5,326,290,287

aan

Demand
Forecast
Demand
Forecast
Periode Demand t^2 d.t F=a+bt
1 54,211,750,000 1 54,211,750,000 -26,359,515,892.42
2 36,352,525,000 4 72,705,050,000 -22,451,642,051.65
3 53,781,000,000 9 161,343,000,000 -18,543,768,210.89
4 84,301,000,000 16 337,204,000,000 -14,635,894,370.13
5 43,030,900,000 25 215,154,500,000 -10,728,020,529.36
6 48,781,125,000 36 292,686,750,000 -6,820,146,688.60
7 26,949,900,000 49 188,649,300,000 -2,912,272,847.84
8 65,058,075,000 64 520,464,600,000 995,600,992.93
9 31,219,950,000 81 280,979,550,000 4,903,474,833.69
10 66,426,850,000 100 664,268,500,000 8,811,348,674.45
11 64,423,700,000 121 708,660,700,000 12,719,222,515.21
12 79,343,975,000 144 952,127,700,000 16,627,096,355.98
13 55,218,250,000 169 717,837,250,000 20,534,970,196.74
14 74,359,850,000 196 1,041,037,900,000 24,442,844,037.50
15 92,078,825,000 225 1,381,182,375,000 28,350,717,878.27
16 73,843,750,000 256 1,181,500,000,000 32,258,591,719.03
17 85,183,350,000 289 1,448,116,950,000 36,166,465,559.79
18 82,487,575,000 324 1,484,776,350,000 40,074,339,400.56
19 43,862,050,000 361 833,378,950,000 43,982,213,241.32
20 75,203,400,000 400 1,504,068,000,000 47,890,087,082.08
21 93,713,900,000 441 1,967,991,900,000 51,797,960,922.84
22 94,370,300,000 484 2,076,146,600,000 55,705,834,763.61
23 115,308,525,000 529 2,652,096,075,000 59,613,708,604.37
24 128,220,725,000 576 3,077,297,400,000 63,521,582,445.13
25 80,951,750,000 625 2,023,793,750,000 67,429,456,285.90
26 98,112,125,000 676 2,550,915,250,000 71,337,330,126.66
27 116,751,475,000 729 3,152,289,825,000 75,245,203,967.42
28 90,746,750,000 784 2,540,909,000,000 79,153,077,808.19
29 103,859,500,000 841 3,011,925,500,000 83,060,951,648.95
30 126,826,575,000 900 3,804,797,250,000 86,968,825,489.71
31 114,350,100,000 961 3,544,853,100,000 90,876,699,330.47
32 133,357,400,000 1024 4,267,436,800,000 94,784,573,171.24
33 114,566,550,000 1089 3,780,696,150,000 98,692,447,012.00
34 105,234,125,000 1156 3,577,960,250,000 102,600,320,852.76
35 111,644,300,000 1225 3,907,550,500,000 106,508,194,693.53
36 117,967,475,000 1296 4,246,829,100,000 110,416,068,534.29
37 125,385,075,000 1369 4,639,247,775,000 114,323,942,375.05
38 136,990,075,000 1444 5,205,622,850,000 118,231,816,215.82
39 124,609,425,000 1521 4,859,767,575,000 122,139,690,056.58
40 127,455,750,000 1600 5,098,230,000,000 126,047,563,897.34
41 160,841,675,000 1681 6,594,508,675,000 129,955,437,738.11
42 130,806,800,000 1764 5,493,885,600,000 133,863,311,578.87
43 144,327,750,000 1849 6,206,093,250,000 137,771,185,419.63
44 152,772,325,000 1936 6,721,982,300,000 141,679,059,260.39
45 133,730,425,000 2025 6,017,869,125,000 145,586,933,101.16
46 114,043,100,000 2116 5,245,982,600,000 149,494,806,941.92
47 141,889,275,000 2209 6,668,795,925,000 153,402,680,782.68
48 123,190,550,000 2304 5,913,146,400,000 157,310,554,623.45
49 114,063,900,000 2401 5,589,131,100,000 161,218,428,464.21
50 141,195,000,000 2500 7,059,750,000,000 165,126,302,304.97
51 158,762,625,000 2601 8,096,893,875,000 169,034,176,145.74
52 122,803,425,000 2704 6,385,778,100,000 172,942,049,986.50
53 138,337,825,000 2809 7,331,904,725,000 176,849,923,827.26
54 149,804,575,000 2916 8,089,447,050,000 180,757,797,668.02
55 159,287,775,000 3025 8,760,827,625,000 184,665,671,508.79
56 160,225,100,000 3136 8,972,605,600,000 188,573,545,349.55
57 184,787,000,000 3249 10,532,859,000,000 192,481,419,190.31
58 167,557,750,000 3364 9,718,349,500,000 196,389,293,031.08
59 177,187,300,000 3481 10,454,050,700,000 200,297,166,871.84
60 152,837,900,000 3600 9,170,274,000,000 204,205,040,712.60
61 208,112,914,553.37
62 212,020,788,394.13
63 215,928,662,234.89
64 219,836,536,075.65
65 223,744,409,916.42
66 227,652,283,757.18
67 231,560,157,597.94
68 235,468,031,438.71
69 239,375,905,279.47
70 243,283,779,120.23
71 247,191,652,961.00
72 251,099,526,801.76
73 255,007,400,642.52
74 258,915,274,483.28
75 262,823,148,324.05
76 266,731,022,164.81
77 270,638,896,005.57
78 274,546,769,846.34
79 278,454,643,687.10
80 282,362,517,527.86
81 286,270,391,368.63
82 290,178,265,209.39
83 294,086,139,050.15
84 297,994,012,890.91
85 301,901,886,731.68
86 305,809,760,572.44
87 309,717,634,413.20
88 313,625,508,253.97
89 317,533,382,094.73
90 321,441,255,935.49
91 325,349,129,776.26
92 329,257,003,617.02
93 333,164,877,457.78
94 337,072,751,298.54
95 340,980,625,139.31
96 344,888,498,980.07
97 348,796,372,820.83
98 352,704,246,661.60
99 356,612,120,502.36
100 360,519,994,343.12
101 364,427,868,183.89
102 368,335,742,024.65
103 372,243,615,865.41
104 376,151,489,706.17
105 380,059,363,546.94
106 383,967,237,387.70
107 387,875,111,228.46
108 391,782,985,069.23
109 395,690,858,909.99
110 399,598,732,750.75
111 403,506,606,591.52
112 407,414,480,432.28
113 411,322,354,273.04
114 415,230,228,113.80
115 419,138,101,954.57
116 423,045,975,795.33
117 426,953,849,636.09
118 430,861,723,476.86
119 434,769,597,317.62
120 438,677,471,158.38
Total
Forecast et et et^2 Pe (%)
-26,359,515,893 -80,571,265,893 80,571,265,893 6,491,728,887,600,500,000,000 -148.62
-22,451,642,052 -58,804,167,052 58,804,167,052 3,457,930,062,679,520,000,000 -161.76
-18,543,768,211 -72,324,768,211 72,324,768,211 5,230,872,096,774,880,000,000 -134.48
-14,635,894,371 -98,936,894,371 98,936,894,371 9,788,509,067,778,410,000,000 -117.36
-10,728,020,530 -53,758,920,530 53,758,920,530 2,890,021,536,550,860,000,000 -124.93
-6,820,146,689 -55,601,271,689 55,601,271,689 3,091,501,413,433,990,000,000 -113.98
-2,912,272,848 -29,862,172,848 29,862,172,848 891,749,367,203,829,000,000 -110.81
995,600,993 -64,062,474,007 64,062,474,007 4,104,000,575,897,550,000,000 -98.47
4,903,474,834 -26,316,475,166 26,316,475,166 692,556,865,162,695,000,000 -84.29
8,811,348,675 -57,615,501,325 57,615,501,325 3,319,545,992,931,080,000,000 -86.74
12,719,222,516 -51,704,477,484 51,704,477,484 2,673,352,991,893,460,000,000 -80.26
16,627,096,356 -62,716,878,644 62,716,878,644 3,933,406,866,846,220,000,000 -79.04
20,534,970,197 -34,683,279,803 34,683,279,803 1,202,929,897,893,190,000,000 -62.81
24,442,844,038 -49,917,005,962 49,917,005,962 2,491,707,484,210,340,000,000 -67.13
28,350,717,879 -63,728,107,121 63,728,107,121 4,061,271,637,225,650,000,000 -69.21
32,258,591,720 -41,585,158,280 41,585,158,280 1,729,325,389,172,650,000,000 -56.32
36,166,465,560 -49,016,884,440 49,016,884,440 2,402,654,960,204,310,000,000 -57.54
40,074,339,401 -42,413,235,599 42,413,235,599 1,798,882,553,976,280,000,000 -51.42
43,982,213,242 120,163,242 120,163,242 14,439,204,727,950,600 0.27
47,890,087,083 -27,313,312,917 27,313,312,917 746,017,062,501,959,000,000 -36.32
51,797,960,923 -41,915,939,077 41,915,939,077 1,756,945,948,706,780,000,000 -44.73
55,705,834,764 -38,664,465,236 38,664,465,236 1,494,940,871,985,850,000,000 -40.97
59,613,708,605 -55,694,816,395 55,694,816,395 3,101,912,573,272,760,000,000 -48.30
63,521,582,446 -64,699,142,554 64,699,142,554 4,185,979,047,222,810,000,000 -50.46
67,429,456,286 -13,522,293,714 13,522,293,714 182,852,427,287,684,000,000 -16.70
71,337,330,127 -26,774,794,873 26,774,794,873 716,889,640,491,227,000,000 -27.29
75,245,203,968 -41,506,271,032 41,506,271,032 1,722,770,534,981,840,000,000 -35.55
79,153,077,809 -11,593,672,191 11,593,672,191 134,413,234,872,367,000,000 -12.78
83,060,951,649 -20,798,548,351 20,798,548,351 432,579,613,508,885,000,000 -20.03
86,968,825,490 -39,857,749,510 39,857,749,510 1,588,640,196,001,910,000,000 -31.43
90,876,699,331 -23,473,400,669 23,473,400,669 551,000,538,967,410,000,000 -20.53
94,784,573,172 -38,572,826,828 38,572,826,828 1,487,862,969,502,880,000,000 -28.92
98,692,447,013 -15,874,102,987 15,874,102,987 251,987,145,641,882,000,000 -13.86
102,600,320,853 -2,633,804,147 2,633,804,147 6,936,924,284,754,400,000 -2.50
106,508,194,694 -5,136,105,306 5,136,105,306 26,379,577,714,321,400,000 -4.60
110,416,068,535 -7,551,406,465 7,551,406,465 57,023,739,599,643,800,000 -6.40
114,323,942,376 -11,061,132,624 11,061,132,624 122,348,654,925,717,000,000 -8.82
118,231,816,216 -18,758,258,784 18,758,258,784 351,872,272,607,513,000,000 -13.69
122,139,690,057 -2,469,734,943 2,469,734,943 6,099,590,688,675,210,000 -1.98
126,047,563,898 -1,408,186,102 1,408,186,102 1,982,988,097,865,950,000 -1.10
129,955,437,739 -30,886,237,261 30,886,237,261 953,959,652,142,785,000,000 -19.20
133,863,311,579 3,056,511,579 3,056,511,579 9,342,263,032,561,080,000 2.34
137,771,185,420 -6,556,564,580 6,556,564,580 42,988,539,091,710,600,000 -4.54
141,679,059,261 -11,093,265,739 11,093,265,739 123,060,544,756,071,000,000 -7.26
145,586,933,102 11,856,508,102 11,856,508,102 140,576,784,372,792,000,000 8.87
149,494,806,942 35,451,706,942 35,451,706,942 1,256,823,525,101,450,000,000 31.09
153,402,680,783 11,513,405,783 11,513,405,783 132,558,512,724,018,000,000 8.11
157,310,554,624 34,120,004,624 34,120,004,624 1,164,174,715,541,780,000,000 27.70
161,218,428,465 47,154,528,465 47,154,528,465 2,223,549,554,756,500,000,000 41.34
165,126,302,305 23,931,302,305 23,931,302,305 572,707,230,013,298,000,000 16.95
169,034,176,146 10,271,551,146 10,271,551,146 105,504,762,944,894,000,000 6.47
172,942,049,987 50,138,624,987 50,138,624,987 2,513,881,715,587,020,000,000 40.83
176,849,923,828 38,512,098,828 38,512,098,828 1,483,181,756,137,640,000,000 27.84
180,757,797,669 30,953,222,669 30,953,222,669 958,101,993,596,696,000,000 20.66
184,665,671,509 25,377,896,509 25,377,896,509 644,037,631,221,514,000,000 15.93
188,573,545,350 28,348,445,350 28,348,445,350 803,634,353,761,937,000,000 17.69
192,481,419,191 7,694,419,191 7,694,419,191 59,204,086,686,829,100,000 4.16
196,389,293,032 28,831,543,032 28,831,543,032 831,257,873,606,068,000,000 17.21
200,297,166,872 23,109,866,872 23,109,866,872 534,065,946,841,563,000,000 13.04
204,205,040,713 51,367,140,713 51,367,140,713 2,638,583,145,029,140,000,000 33.61
208,112,914,554
212,020,788,395
215,928,662,235
219,836,536,076
223,744,409,917
227,652,283,758
231,560,157,598
235,468,031,439
239,375,905,280
243,283,779,121
247,191,652,961
251,099,526,802
255,007,400,643
258,915,274,484
262,823,148,325
266,731,022,165
270,638,896,006
274,546,769,847
278,454,643,688
282,362,517,528
286,270,391,369
290,178,265,210
294,086,139,051
297,994,012,891
301,901,886,732
305,809,760,573
309,717,634,414
313,625,508,254
317,533,382,095
321,441,255,936
325,349,129,777
329,257,003,618
333,164,877,458
337,072,751,299
340,980,625,140
344,888,498,981
348,796,372,821
352,704,246,662
356,612,120,503
360,519,994,344
364,427,868,184
368,335,742,025
372,243,615,866
376,151,489,707
380,059,363,547
383,967,237,388
387,875,111,229
391,782,985,070
395,690,858,910
399,598,732,751
403,506,606,592
407,414,480,433
411,322,354,274
415,230,228,114
419,138,101,955
423,045,975,796
426,953,849,637
430,861,723,477
434,769,597,318
438,677,471,159
-1,089,626,030,371 2,013,243,911,049 96,370,592,226,451,200,000,000 -1,869
Pe Nilai
148.62 X 1830 a
161.76 Y 6,424,991,775,000 b
134.48 XY 233,050,844,975,000
117.36
124.93
113.98
110.81
Error Statistik
98.47
84.29 ME -18,160,433,839.517
86.74 SSE 40,415,341,990.944
80.26 MSE 1,606,176,537,107,520,000,000
79.04 MASE 33,554,065,184.15
62.81
Error Relatif
67.13
69.21 MPE -31.151
56.32 MAPE 42.288
57.54
51.42
0.27
36.32
44.73
40.97
48.30
50.46
16.70 1830 6424991775000 73810 233,050,844,975,000
27.29
35.55 b 3907873840.763
12.78 a -30267389733.1786
20.03
31.43
20.53 Plot Data RL Pesaing
28.92
13.86 500,000,000,000
2.50
4.60
6.40 400,000,000,000
8.82
13.69
1.98 300,000,000,000
1.10 Deman
19.20 Forecas
2.34 200,000,000,000
4.54

100,000,000,000
Deman
Forecas
200,000,000,000

7.26
8.87 100,000,000,000
31.09
8.11
0
27.70
41.34
16.95
-100,000,000,000
6.47
40.83
27.84
20.66
15.93
17.69
4.16
17.21
13.04
33.61
2,537
Nilai
-30,267,389,733
3,907,873,841

Demand
Forecast
Demand
Forecast
Metode MSE Perusahaan MSE Pesaing
DMA 339,839,445,111,633,000,000 185,935,756,614,709,000,000
Brown 572,909,990,779,775,000,000 312,806,492,164,660,000,000
Holt 2,013,399,927,895,050,000,000 1,158,502,483,341,490,000,000
Regresi Linier 2,967,942,281,874,210,000,000 1,606,176,537,107,520,000,000
Harga 450,000 65,000
Proporsi 0.82 0.18
Periode Forecasting Permintaan Sepeda Pompa Angin
1 228,267,263,889 415954 632125
2 229,301,066,667 417838 634988
3 230,334,869,445 419722 637851
4 231,368,672,223 421606 640714
5 232,402,475,000 423489 643577
6 233,436,277,778 425373 646439
7 234,470,080,556 427257 649302
8 235,503,883,334 429141 652165
9 236,537,686,112 431025 655028
10 237,571,488,889 432909 657891
11 238,605,291,667 434792 660754
12 239,639,094,445 436676 663616
13 240,672,897,223 438560 666479
14 241,706,700,000 440444 669342
15 242,740,502,778 442328 672205
16 243,774,305,556 444211 675068
17 244,808,108,334 446095 677931
18 245,841,911,112 447979 680793
19 246,875,713,889 449863 683656
20 247,909,516,667 451747 686519
21 248,943,319,445 453631 689382
22 249,977,122,223 455514 692245
23 251,010,925,001 457398 695108
24 252,044,727,778 459282 697971
25 253,078,530,556 461166 700833
26 254,112,333,334 463050 703696
27 255,146,136,112 464933 706559
28 256,179,938,889 466817 709422
29 257,213,741,667 468701 712285
30 258,247,544,445 470585 715148
31 259,281,347,223 472469 718010
32 260,315,150,001 474353 720873
33 261,348,952,778 476236 723736
34 262,382,755,556 478120 726599
35 263,416,558,334 480004 729462
36 264,450,361,112 481888 732325
37 265,484,163,889 483772 735187
38 266,517,966,667 485655 738050
39 267,551,769,445 487539 740913
40 268,585,572,223 489423 743776
41 269,619,375,001 491307 746639
42 270,653,177,778 493191 749502
43 271,686,980,556 495075 752364
44 272,720,783,334 496958 755227
45 273,754,586,112 498842 758090
46 274,788,388,889 500726 760953
47 275,822,191,667 502610 763816
48 276,855,994,445 504494 766679
49 277,889,797,223 506377 769541
50 278,923,600,001 508261 772404
51 279,957,402,778 510145 775267
52 280,991,205,556 512029 778130
53 282,025,008,334 513913 780993
54 283,058,811,112 515797 783856
55 284,092,613,889 517680 786719
56 285,126,416,667 519564 789581
57 286,160,219,445 521448 792444
58 287,194,022,223 523332 795307
59 288,227,825,001 525216 798170
60 289,261,627,778 527099 801033
Jumlah 28291609 42994738
Harga 475,000 75,000
Proporsi 0.83 0.17
Periode Forecasting Pesaing Sepeda Pompa Angin
1 167,319,133,334 292369 379257
2 168,048,208,334 293643 380910
3 168,777,283,334 294917 382562
4 169,506,358,334 296191 384215
5 170,235,433,334 297465 385867
6 170,964,508,334 298738 387520
7 171,693,583,334 300012 389173
8 172,422,658,334 301286 390825
9 173,151,733,334 302560 392478
10 173,880,808,334 303834 394130
11 174,609,883,334 305108 395783
12 175,338,958,334 306382 397435
13 176,068,033,334 307656 399088
14 176,797,108,334 308930 400741
15 177,526,183,334 310204 402393
16 178,255,258,334 311478 404046
17 178,984,333,334 312752 405698
18 179,713,408,334 314026 407351
19 180,442,483,334 315300 409003
20 181,171,558,334 316574 410656
21 181,900,633,334 317848 412309
22 182,629,708,334 319122 413961
23 183,358,783,334 320396 415614
24 184,087,858,334 321670 417266
25 184,816,933,334 322944 418919
26 185,546,008,334 324218 420571
27 186,275,083,334 325492 422224
28 187,004,158,334 326766 423877
29 187,733,233,334 328040 425529
30 188,462,308,334 329314 427182
31 189,191,383,334 330588 428834
32 189,920,458,334 331862 430487
33 190,649,533,334 333135 432139
34 191,378,608,334 334409 433792
35 192,107,683,334 335683 435445
36 192,836,758,334 336957 437097
37 193,565,833,334 338231 438750
38 194,294,908,334 339505 440402
39 195,023,983,334 340779 442055
40 195,753,058,334 342053 443707
41 196,482,133,334 343327 445360
42 197,211,208,334 344601 447013
43 197,940,283,334 345875 448665
44 198,669,358,334 347149 450318
45 199,398,433,334 348423 451970
46 200,127,508,334 349697 453623
47 200,856,583,334 350971 455275
48 201,585,658,334 352245 456928
49 202,314,733,334 353519 458581
50 203,043,808,334 354793 460233
51 203,772,883,334 356067 461886
52 204,501,958,334 357341 463538
53 205,231,033,334 358615 465191
54 205,960,108,334 359889 466843
55 206,689,183,334 361163 468496
56 207,418,258,334 362437 470149
57 208,147,333,334 363711 471801
58 208,876,408,334 364985 473454
59 209,605,483,334 366259 475106
60 210,334,558,334 367532 476759
Jumlah 19797036 25680480
Proporsi
Sepeda Perusahaan 0.82
Pompa Perusahaan 0.18
Sepeda Pesaing 0.83
Pompa Pesaing 0.17
Sepeda
Market Share
Tahun Forecast Demand Forecast Pesaing Market Demand
(%)
2016 5,115,782 3,592,505 1,523,277 28%
2017 5,387,052 3,775,956 1,611,096 28%
2018 5,658,322 3,959,408 1,698,914 28%
2019 5,929,592 4,142,856 1,786,736 28%
2020 6,200,861 4,326,311 1,874,550 28%

Pompa
Market Share
Tahun Forecast Demand Forecast Pesaing Market Demand
(%)
2016 7,774,450 4,660,155 3,114,295 28%
2017 8,186,699 4,898,126 3,288,573 28%
2018 8,598,948 5,136,096 3,462,852 28%
2019 9,011,196 5,374,066 3,637,130 28%
2020 9,423,445 5,612,037 3,811,408 28%
Kapasitas Produksi KPT

426,518 206
451,107 217
475,696 229
500,286 241
524,874 253

Kapasitas Produksi KPT

872,003 420
920,800 443
969,599 467
1,018,396 490
1,067,194 514