Special Anniversary Edition
Volume 12, Issue 1
New Analysis Capabilities in Synthesis Applications
With the release of Synthesis Phase I in Spring 2012, the
Version 8 releases of Weibull++, ALTA, BlockSim, Xfmea and
RCM++ were integrated into the groundbreaking new Synthesis
Platform. This new framework provides intelligent integration
between reliability program activities and tools, while
simultaneously facilitating effective information sharing and
cooperation between engineering teams of any size. (Learn
more at http://Synthesis.ReliaSoft.com.)
Together with Synthesis integration, the Version 8
upgrades also offer an exciting collection of powerful new
analysis capabilities that many of ReliaSoft's customers and
partners have been waiting for.
Solving for Design Parameters Based on Target Reliability
For many years, Weibull++ and ALTA users have been
relying on the stress-strength analysis tool for situations when
they need to estimate reliability by determining the probability
that the strength of the component will exceed the stress
expected in the operating environment.
Accelerated Testing with the Inverse Power Law
Harland MacKenzie
Dana Corporation
One of the keys to understanding how a system or
component will react to conditions outside its validation
envelope is the life-stressor slope. Generally, the useful life of
a component decreases with increased levels of stress or
"input." In essence, it comes down to developing a fatigue
curve for a particular system then exploiting the design margin
during testing. The hard part, quite often, is determining a
confident estimate for the life-stressor slope; because even a
small error results in predictions being quite far off. This article
will examine some of the basics of accelerated life testing and
some techniques to utilize the inverse power law to improve
testing time, cost and life prediction accuracy.
What is Accelerated Life Testing?
Accelerated life testing (ALT) exploits the fatigue properties
of materials to aid in the design and validation process. The
general trend is to use ALT as a method to demonstrate the
In the following sections, we will use simplified examples
to highlight four of the most anticipated new capabilities:
Solving for design parameters based on a target reliability
(Weibull++ and ALTA).
Using data from an FMEA to calculate the initial baseline
system reliability (Xfmea and RCM++).
Building fault trees and RBDs from data in an FMEA
(BlockSim).
Improving maintenance task packaging (RCM++).
We also provide a sneak peek at some of the new capabilities
that will be added in the Synthesis Phase II release in 2013.
New in Weibull++ and ALTA
This tool has now been extensively redesigned and
expanded in Version 8, giving users the ability to:
Save these analyses in the project for future reference.
Generate a pdf plot to visualize the comparison.
Obtain confidence bounds on the calculated probability.
The Version 8 utility also provides two new integrated
capabilities that have very useful applications for Design for
Reliability (DFR) activities.
Please Turn to Page 7
Guest Submission
suitability of a particular design and/or system for field usage.
But if all that is taken away is an estimate of useful life (or time
to failure), the effort has been half wasted. Quite often, the
failure mode is actually more valuable than the time to failure.
If design changes can be made to eliminate or significantly
delay the onset of the "first failure," great gains can be made
in system reliability.
Please Turn to Page 20
Also Inside...
A New Multimedia Resource Portal for Reliability
Celebrating ReliaSoft's 20 Year Anniversary
More New Analysis Capabilities in Synthesis Applications
Increasing Mandrel Life in a Cold Ring Rolling Process:
An Application of DOE Principles to Reliability Analysis
Information on the latest software product releases
 In This Issue A New Multimedia Resource Portal for Reliability
Page 1 In recent years, more and more busy Step-by-Step Software Tutorials
professionals have come to rely on
New Analysis Capabilities in The site also features multimedia
videos and multimedia presentations to
tutorials that demonstrate, step-by-step,
Synthesis Applications provide a fast, convenient and enjoyable
how to use available software tools to
Accelerated Testing with the way to get up to speed (and stay up to
solve specific problems. These videos
Inverse Power Law date) with the latest advances in many
are meant to optimize the time that a user
different aspects of both their personal
spends learning a new software interface
Page 2 and professional lives.
by providing a direct visual demonstration
A New Multimedia Resource Introduced in early 2012, the that will hold the user's attention and
Portal for Reliability ReliaSoft.tv website has been established make it easy to follow along with even the
in order to bring these kinds of practical most complex examples.
From the Editor's Desk and effective multimedia resources to
professionals in reliability engineering Reliability Education Area
Page 3 and related fields. Another area of the site provides
Celebrating 20 Years of more in-depth educational videos on a
y Empowering the Reliability variety of reliability-related topics. These
Professional presentations offer a deeper dive into
e specific reliability techniques and theory,
Page 26 The site has been organized into but the content is still condensed for a
y Increasing Mandrel Life in a several distinct content areas that are quick, convenient learning experience.
Cold Ring Rolling Process: An intended to meet a variety of different
Partner Content Area
needs, both for ReliaSoft's direct
e Application of DOE Principles to
customers and for the overall reliability Finally, the site offers a designated
Reliability Analysis
community. area for individuals and organizations
= who are not directly affiliated with
Page 31 Introduce Specific Reliability Concepts
ReliaSoft to post their own multimedia
and Software Tools
= For Your Information content that will be of interest to the
Bulletin Board One area of the site has been reliability engineering community.
dedicated to providing high-level
Y Get Started Now
introductions for specific reliability
Reliability Edge is published up to four times a year.
engineering concepts and software tools. The website is up and running now
, To obtain a free subscription, send comments or
These targeted, concise multimedia
submit articles for consideration: with step-by-step examples and a variety
presentations offer an easy and engaging of other multimedia presentations.
ReliaSoft Publishing
way to become familiar with some of the Additional content is under development
1450 S. Eastside Loop
Tucson, AZ 85710-6703 USA most useful reliability techniques and as the site continues to expand. To get
Telephone: +1.520.886.0410 Fax: +1.520.886.0399 tools that are currently available. started, visit www.ReliaSoft.tv.
E-mail: ReliabilityEdge@ReliaSoft.com

Correspondence with the editor may be published, in

whole or in part, in future issues of ReliaSoft
publications.
r upgrades for Weibull++, ALTA, BlockSim,
An electronic copy of this document can be viewed or
downloaded from: http://www.ReliabilityNews.com
For information about products and services:
r ReliaSoft Sales
1450 S. Eastside Loop
Tucson, AZ 85710-6703 USA
y Telephone: +1.520.886.0410 Fax: +1.520.886.0399
E-mail: Sales@ReliaSoft.com
Website: http://www.ReliaSoft.com
This document may be reproduced without permission
provided that it is not altered in any way and all pages
are included in any reproduction.
2012 ReliaSoft Corporation, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
ReliaSoft, Reliability Edge, weibull.com, Synthesis Platform,
Synthesis Elements, Weibull++, ALTA, DOE++, RGA,
BlockSim, RENO, Xfmea, RCM++, FMEA Accelerator, MPC,
Lambda Predict, XFRACAS and Orion eAPI are registered
trademarks of ReliaSoft Corporation.
From the Editors Desk
2012 has been a busy and exciting
year at ReliaSoft. As the year comes to a
close, I'm pleased to be introducing this
special edition of Reliability Edge to
commemorate the company's 20 year
anniversary (1992-2012).
In this issue, we've included a few
festive features to celebrate the 20 year
milestone, but you'll find that the issue is
also packed with ideas for applying
reliability analysis tools to meet real world
challenges. For example, we hope you'll
find some useful ideas in the short
examples that highlight new analysis
capabilities made possible by Synthesis
Platform integration and the Version 8
Xfmea and RCM++.
And please don't miss the practical
insights contributed by two Reliability
Edge readers Harland MacKenzie's
reflections on using the inverse power
law model for accelerated test data
analysis, and Tayfun Kocabas' case
study that applies DOE principles to the
reliability analysis of
machine equipment.
As always, we
appreciate your interest
and support.
Lisa Hacker

2 Reliability Edge
Celebrating 20 Years of Empowering the Reliability Professional
Q & A with Pantelis Vassiliou, ReliaSoft President and C.E.O.
Q. What does ReliaSofts 20th Anniversary mean to you?
A. Its been that long? Looking back, I am really proud of our
significant contributions to the reliability engineering
community, the products and services that we have provided,
and most of all the way we did it that is, by always putting
customers first and providing a customer service experience
that is second to none.
Q. How did ReliaSoft start?
A. It all started in 1991. At that time I was student in the Ph.D.
program in reliability engineering at the University of Arizona.
During that time, I worked on a project to create an easy-to-use
PC-based tool to solve for the mixed-Weibull distribution.
Eventually, this led to the creation of a general software for
solving for most forms of the Weibull distribution. The first
version was pretty much a student project and worked under
DOS on IBM-compatible PCs. By the end of 1992, the original
DOS program was ported to Windows 3.1 and was made
commercially available as ReliaSofts Weibull+ Version 3. It is
interesting to note that, at that time, this was one of very few
engineering/math software packages made available on the
newly released Windows 3.1 platform. This single product
started the company. Twenty years later, we are the industry
leader with a full range of reliability solutions that spans 12
fully integrated software offerings, an extensive training
program in reliability theory and practice, expert consulting
services and a worldwide presence.
Q. What is ReliaSofts greatest influence on the reliability
engineering discipline?
A. The greatest influence ReliaSoft has had in this discipline
is that we have provided a centralized location of practical and
useful tools and education, a one-stop shop for reliability
engineers to help them solve problems and improve their
products and processes. Prior to our company, there were a
few universities and textbooks to educate engineers on
reliability, but there were not any really functional tools. We
fulfilled that need in the market early on, and in turn have
accelerated the industrys growth, as well as our own.
Q. What are some of ReliaSofts greatest achievements
over the last 20 years?
A. I believe that ReliaSofts unwavering commitment to
continuous investment in research and development and
focus on innovation has produced a history of industry firsts.
We developed the first commercial Windows-based reliability
software (Weibull++), the first commercial Accelerated Testing
Analysis software (ALTA) and the first commercial Reliability
Growth Analysis software (RGA). We also released the first
commercial FRACAS software, which was also the first
web-based reliability software (XFRACAS). Our RCM++
Volume 12, Issue 1
package was the first commercial RCM software with
quantitative optimization engines. And the new Synthesis
Platform is the first commercial fully enterprise-capable
integrated solution for reliability engineering using object -based
reliability modeling methodologies.
Q. How would you describe the companys growth over
the last 20 years?
A. Our growth has been pursued in a planned and sustainable
fashion. As a result, over the past 20 years ReliaSoft has
grown to a company of more than 125 professionals on four
continents with a customer base exceeding 6,000 companies.
Attendance to Applied Reliability Symposia, which are
sponsored and organized by ReliaSoft, has grown to exceed
1,000 industry participants per year for all events, and
ReliaSofts Educational Services unit has provided training to
more than 17,000 engineering professionals from more than
4,000 companies and government agencies worldwide.
Q. What sets ReliaSoft apart from others?
A. What sets ReliaSoft apart from others is that we are
multifaceted. We not only have the knowledge, experience
and expertise in reliability, but were also creating the reliability
software ourselves and educating the users at the same time.
Q. What has been the core value of the company that has
led to its success over the last 20 years?
A. As a corporate philosophy, we have always valued our
customers most and assured that they receive the product
quality and service that we would like to receive ourselves. As
per our mission statement, we work to empower our customers
to apply reliability engineering methodologies in order to
maximize their profitability while assuring the safety, reliability
and quality of their products, processes and services.
I want to take this opportunity to thank our thousands of
customers for their preference and support over the years,
and to also thank our loyal employees across the globe who
have worked hard to take care of our customers in all aspects
of our business.
ReliaSoft Customers Celebrate With Us
Meeting and exceeding the expectations of our customers has
been a central focus of ReliaSofts efforts over the last 20
years. When we asked some of those valued customers and
partners to help us celebrate this anniversary milestone, we
were overwhelmed by their supportive responses.
We invite you to review excerpts from their comments on the
next two pages, or visit http://www.ReliaSoft.com/20years to
see the full remarks.
Please Turn to Page 4
3
 What people are saying...
th
About ReliaSoft's 20 Anniversary
Congratulations on your 20th year. I look forward to many more
years of applied reliability science innovation.
Daniel C. Conrad / Hussmann Corporation
RELIASOFT! Congratulations on achieving your 20 year
anniversary. In this short period of time you were able to position
your company and your team as a leader in the reliability
community by providing the best reliability tools, consulting
services and support
Dmitry Tananko / General Dynamics Land Systems
I have found ReliaSoft products and people extremely helpful
in providing practical analytical solutions to highly complex,
challenging reliability problems in both the Defense industry and
US Government, Department of Defense applications. Thanks for a
job well done!
James M. Wasiloff / United States ARMY
Congratulations to you and the entire team. The range of tools has
enabled thousands of engineers to analyze reliability data properly and
make decisions that have improved innumerable products Looking
forward to another 20+ years.
Fred Schenkelberg / FMS Reliability
Congratulations on ReliaSofts 20th anniversary. The balanced
concept of powerful software, efficient trainings and international
symposia is a key success factor for achieving this remarkable
milestone. Thank you for being a reliable and helpful business partner
for many years.
Mathias Probst / Schaeffler Technologies AG & Co. KG
On behalf of Alstom we extend to you our warmest wishes as you
celebrate the 20th anniversary of founding ReliaSoft. We wish you
continued success as you celebrate this important milestone.
Rao Palakodeti / Alstom

Congratulations to everyone in the ReliaSoft family on your 20th anniversary! I previously had experience with other reliability products
and was very disappointed. I can honestly say that any success I have had in the field of Reliability. In my last four positions can be credited to
the fantastic tools and support at ReliaSoft. Wishing you many more years of continued success! Marty Fox / Hologic

Throughout my professional reliability engineering career,
ReliaSoft has been a professional partner in providing reliability
software tools, services, and training that I have used over the past
20 years and have improved and honed my reliability skills. Thank
you and congratulations on reaching your 20th year milestone.
Rick Ramirez / ViaSat Corporation
Congratulations to the ReliaSoft team. Your success is a testament
to your teams ability to develop products that are user friendly and
analytically sound, resulting in a speed to market value proposition.
Thanks again for your support, mentoring, customer service and
outstanding portfolio of reliability products.
Steve Brown / Lennox International
ReliaSoft has been a very supportive partner in the development
and application of tools for reliability analysis It is no wonder it
is achieving the popularity it has today both in industry and the
academic world Congratulations on a very successful 20 years!
James MacIntyre / Manitowoc Corp.
The ReliaSoft suite has provided a comprehensive set of reliability
analysis and test support tools with seamless data management across
our product life cycle. While selling the value of a reliability program
can be a challenge in a non-regulated environment, selling the benefits
and productivity of the ReliaSoft suite to my senior leaders has never
been an issue.
Randolph Phillips / Baker Hughes

Congratulations on your remarkable achievements over the past 20 As a head of Global Quality and Technology Executive
years. Your products and support are world class and illustrate your Management, I want to thank you for the good work and the keeping
devotion and dedication to advancing the adoption and successful pace with technological changes in the industry. I am looking forward
implementation of reliability methods. Kudos to a job well done! to seeing more of your products in the decades to come.
Steve & Allise Wachs / Integral Concepts, Inc. Paul Wang / Mitac International Inc.

ReliaSofts MSMT Reliability Foundations Training Seminar provided not only a solid foundation for my reliability engineering career, but
it also yielded the groundwork for my dedication and ability to confidently address my clients reliability challenge Congratulations on
this momentous achievement and I look forward to the next 20 years of working side by side to emphasize and educate the masses on the
importance of reliability engineering. Andrew Foote / Alion Science and Technology Corporation - System Reliability Center

Congratulations on the 20th anniversary of ReliaSoft and the
value it has brought to the reliability discipline over the years.
On a related topic, I have totally enjoyed the format of the
Applied Reliability Symposium that ReliaSoft has sponsored. This
symposium provides a great place for reliability practitioners to
truly share best practices I always go home from this symposium
with another tool I have learned."
Stan Stephenson / Halliburton - Duncan Technology Center
18 years ago, I was looking for a Weibull analysis software package
and stumbled on to ReliaSoft and Weibull++. That began one of the
best partnerships between a supplier and customer I've ever been part
of in my career Congratulations to Pantelis and the team for all
their accomplishments over the past 20 years! I can't imagine what
you'll do in the next 20. Thanks and happy 20th anniversary!"
Dan Farley / Kraft Foods Cheese & Dairy

Over the last 20 years ReliaSoft has led the charge in making reliability, maintainability, and availability analysis accessible to a wide range
of companies and industries Their latest effort, Synthesis, has the potential to create a paradigm shift in the practice of reliability and
maintainability in the industry truly an integrated life cycle analysis tool!!" Edward Pohl / University of Arkansas
Congratulations to ReliaSoft for 20 years of attentive service to
reliability engineering functions in industries across the country
and around the globe! Your products have given not only statistical
tools, but organizational and communication tools to an often
cumbersome task Best wishes for the next 20 years of new and
improved products!
Jane Peterson / Woodward Inc.
Congratulations to ReliaSoft on your 20th anniversary. ReliaSoft
has been an invaluable partner to ASI for many of those years and
we appreciate all of your support. 20 years of survival in the software
industry is a testament to your continued emphasis on innovation
and commitment to being leaders in the Reliability field. Keep up the
good work!
JC Leverette / Andromeda Systems Incorporated
You and your fellow employees have provided me with tools that
did exactly what you said they would, no nonsense sales puffery
and excellent support. Your training has been extensive and easily
understood. I am a completely satisfied customer!
David Payne / Haldex Brake Products Corporation
Congratulations to the folks at ReliaSoft on their 20th anniversary.
Our partnership with ReliaSoft began over 15 years ago. This
relationship has helped John Deere provide highly reliable products
to our worldwide customers. It is a pleasure working with Pantelis,
Doug, and the rest of the ReliaSoft crew.
Chuck Noel / John Deere Turf Care
Congratulations! Capstone has had a great history with ReliaSoft,
and we look forward to many more years! Our employees love
XFRACAS, and cant wait to see the upcoming changes.
Evan Franke / Capstone Turbine Corporation
It is a pleasure to witness how, in the past 20 years, ReliaSoft
developed from a small software company to a powerful global
corporation and a well-established center of reliability expertise
Today, ReliaSoft continues to be an undisputed leader in many
areas of reliability science and data analysis. Thank you, ReliaSoft,
thank you, Pantelis and thank you to all the people who have made
ReliaSoft the success story it is today.
Andre Kleyner / Purdue University

Today, the reliability engineers are tasked with not just spilling out a reliability number because a contract clause asks for it but they are
identifying the weak spots in products, developing qualifications tests, performing accelerated qualification tests, and supporting products
over short and long life cycles. The science and mathematics of these had been known by engineers for a long time but what delayed the
introductions of these methods were the lack of reliable, easy to use, and comprehensive tools sets. ReliaSoft has continued to identify and fill
that gap over the last 20 years. Michael Pecht / University of Maryland

It is great to see ReliaSoft celebrating their 20th anniversary. I
have used several of their products for over 12 of those 20 years,
notably Weibull++ and BlockSim and found them effective and user
friendly Congratulations ReliaSoft on reaching this milestone.
Aron Brall / NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center
I am not surprised that ReliaSoft has capped such an anniversary
with such a crowning achievement as Synthesis. This is one amazing
feat that directly reflects on the vision and integrity that have
continually been behind their successes over the years. Salute!
Ken Millspaugh / Raytheon Company

During the course of 20 years, ReliaSoft has transformed the
science of reliability engineering by creating a framework that is
practical, coherent and intuitive. This single company, through its
trinity of software, training and consulting has positively influenced
the reliability of most of the products we use today and most of the
processes we rely upon. I expect nothing less for the next 20 years."
Georgios Sarakakis / Tesla Motors
I would like to congratulate ReliaSoft on achieving its 20th
anniversary. I had my first exposure to ReliaSoft during the 1996
RAMS conference. I was impressed during that encounter with the
focus that you placed on your customers needs. This customer focus
has been demonstrated numerous times over the years by all of the
people with whom I have had the pleasure to interact.
James Malm / Deere & Company
Congratulations ReliaSoft on 20 years and I want to wish you many
more years of continued success. ReliaSofts longevity speaks for itself
and you should also be proud of your role in helping to shape and
support the reliability field. I have been associated with ReliaSoft for
many years and have always appreciated working with you and your
employees because of your strong commitment to your customers.
Heres to the next 20 years!
Larry Crow / Crow Reliability Resources
As soon as ReliaSoft came out with Weibull++, I became hooked on
their intuitive, and easy to use, reliability assessment software. I have
utilized many of ReliaSofts suite of tools in my work over the past 20
years within the high tech industry Congratulations for your 20
years and I am very grateful for your contributions to my career.
Jeff Blanchard / Dot Hill Systems

Early on in my career, I looked for a mentor. I not only found that mentor in ReliaSoft, I found an entire organization of dedicated
reliability professionals and a friendship that I am proud to have. Congratulations to ReliaSoft on 20 years of contributions to reliability
knowledge, software tools, and professional education.
Jeffrey P. Lewis / Surgical Specialties Corporation (dba Angiotech)

I have known ReliaSoft since 1995, but as much as I've enjoyed
using the software, I have also enjoyed rich learning experiences
from your staff and networked professionals. Your ability to put
forth industry-leading world class software is rivaled only by your
ability to put together teams of the best reliability, engineering and
computer professionals "
Jim Jauw / Stryker Corporation
It is not surprising that ReliaSoft is celebrating 20 years in business.
The products and services they provide are first class. When dealing
with ReliaSoft you will get a sense of passion for the technology of
reliability They are sophisticated and one of the friendliest groups
of people Ive had the pleasure to work with. Congratulations and
good luck in the future.
Jeff Barts / Universal Lighting Technologies
 The standard for reliability life data analysisTM

Weibull++is the industry standard for reliability and life data analysis (Weibull analysis)for thousands of companies
worldwide.

Supports all forms of the Weibull distribution along with the exponential, normal, lognormal, generalized
gamma, gamma, logistic, loglogistic, Gumbel and Weibull-Bayesian distributions. The Distribution Wizard
helps you select the appropriate distribution for your data.
Supports rank regression and maximum likelihood estimation for parameter estimation and offers Fisher
matrix, likelihood ratio, beta binomial and Bayesian methods for confidence bounds.
Quickly returns calculated reliability results and automatically generates a complete array of related plots
and reports.
Provides integrated utilities for related analyses, including warranty analysis, reliability block diagrams,
parametric and non-parametric recurrent event data analysis, degradation analysis, non-parametric life data
analysis and reliability test design.
http://Weibull.ReliaSoft.com

Accelerated life tests... quantifiable resultsTM

Accelerated life testing techniques, in conjunction with powerful quantitative accelerated life data analysis
methodologies, give design and reliability engineers the power to significantly reduce test times, which can provide
faster time to market, lower product development costs, lower warranty costs and many other benefits.

ReliaSoft's ALTA is still the only commercially available software tool designed expressly for quantitative accelerated
life testing data analysis using rigorous scientific analysis methods. The software is available in two versions:
ALTA Standard provides the life-stress relationship models required to analyze accelerated life test data
with 1 or 2 constant stresses.
ALTA PRO offers advanced capabilities for analyzing accelerated life test data with up to 8 simultaneous
stress types where stress is constant or varies with time!

Both versions provide a complete array of utilities for designing accelerated life tests, evaluating the fit of the model,
calculating reliability metrics, generating plots and performing related statistical analyses.
http://ALTA.ReliaSoft.com
Continued from Page 1:New Analysis Capabilities in Synthesis Applications
Target Reliability Parameter Estimator: Allows you to
solve for the design parameters that would enable a
component to meet the reliability goal (i.e., determine the
parameters of the strength distribution that would yield the
desired probability that strength will exceed stress).
Direct Integration with the Test Design Folio: Makes it
easy to design a reliability demonstration test (e.g., a
zero-failure test) to demonstrate that a component has the
desired strength.
Application Example
A design group needs assistance with selecting and
qualifying a steel component for a new product. Their main
concern is the component's ability to withstand the tensile
stresses in its intended application. The circumstances are as
follows:
Reliability Target: The requirement for the component is a
probability of failure of 1 in 100,000 due to tensile loads (or a
reliability of 99.999%).
Stress Distribution: By estimating that the median tensile
stress is 75 Mpa and the worst case load (99th percentile
case) is 150 Mpa, they obtain a Weibull stress distribution with
beta = 2.732021 and eta = 85.767713 Mpa.
Strength Distribution: The engineers have already tested 6
specimens and they have 10 more available for testing if the
current information is not sufficient to demonstrate the reliability
target. The first 6 specimens failed at the following tensile
stress levels (in Mpa): 212, 236, 248, 254, 271 and 287.
If the current data set is not sufficient to demonstrate the
reliability target, the engineers need to design a reliability
demonstration test for the additional 10 specimens.
Perform the Stress-Strength Analysis with Available Data
The first step is to perform the stress-strength analysis for
the available data to see if it is sufficient to demonstrate the
reliability goal. The next picture shows the results.
The estimated reliability is 99.980787%, which is close to
the target reliability, but not close enough.
Volume 12, Issue 1
Solve for the Necessary Strength Distribution
The next step is to use the new integrated Target
Reliability Parameter Estimator to determine how strong the
component needs to be in order to meet a reliability target of
at least 99.999%. The next picture shows the results.
Assuming that beta is similar to the value calculated from
the original 6 specimens (2.732021), the utility calculates that
the value of eta needs to be 356.417269 Mpa. In other words,
when the engineers test the remaining 10 specimens and
analyze the data, an eta of 356.42 Mpa or higher is estimated
to be sufficient to use stress-strength analysis to demonstrate
the target reliability.
Design a Reliability Demonstration Test
The last step is to design a reliability demonstration test
for the remaining 10 specimens. The Version 8 stress-strength
folio contains a new quick access icon that automatically
creates a Reliability Demonstration Test (RDT) folio and
populates the test plan with the tensile strength the team
wants to be able to demonstrate. Because the software has
automatically populated all of the inputs required for a
parametric binomial test plan, the analysts simply need to
specify the sample size (10), the maximum number of failures
(0) and the value they want to solve for. They select to solve
for the required test time because, in this case, the "time" is
the tensile strength that the specimens must experience
without failure.
The results are shown next. The analysis indicates that if
the engineers test 10 specimens at a tensile stress of
307.990113 Mpa and there are no failures, then the desired
strength to achieve the required reliability will have been
demonstrated with a 90% confidence.
Please Turn to Page 9
7
 Expert support for all types of FMEA and FMECATM

Xfmea facilitates analysis, data management and reporting for FMEA, FMECA and related analyses.

Supports the major industry standards, such as SAEJ1739, AIAG and MIL-STD-1629A, for all types of
FMEA/FMECA. Provides extensive capabilities to customize the interface and reports.
Supports Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) and Criticality Analysis for risk assessment.
Provides a complete set of print-ready reports generated in Microsoft Word or Excel, a variety of
pareto (bar), pie and matrix charts and a flexible query utility.
y Supports related analyses such as Control Plans, Design Verification Plans and Design Review Based on
Failure Mode (DRBFM).
e Allows multiple users to work cooperatively on the analysis and provides numerous ways to leverage the
lessons learned from previous analyses, including copy/paste, import/export, etc.
y
http://Xfmea.ReliaSoft.com
e

Putting the reliability back into reliability centered maintenanceTM

RCM++ facilitates analysis, data management and reporting for Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)analysis.
r
Supports the Equipment Selection, Failure Effect Categorization and Maintenance Task Selection logic
from the major RCMstandards and allows you to customize the logic to meet specific needs.
r Provides simulation-based calculations to compare maintenance strategies based on cost and average
availability over the life of the equipment and to calculate the optimum interval for preventive
y maintenance.
Provides a complete set of print-ready reports generated in Microsoft Word or Excel, a variety of
pareto (bar), pie and matrix charts and a flexible query utility.
Allows multiple users to work cooperatively on the analysis and provides numerous ways to leverage the
lessons learned from previous analyses, including copy/paste, import/export, etc.
Incorporates FMEA/FMECA capabilities, including Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs), Criticality Analysis,
recommended actions tracking, etc.
http://RCM.ReliaSoft.com
8 Reliability Edge
Continued from Page 7:New Analysis Capabilities in Synthesis Applications

Using FMEA to Calculate the Baseline System Reliability New in Xfmea and RCM++
Most reliability engineers have recognized the potential to For example, the FMEA team used an occurrence rating
make more effective use of the valuable product reliability of O = 6 if the probability of failure was estimated to be
knowledge captured in a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis approximately 2 per thousand items. This equates to a
(FMEA). For many years, ReliaSoft's database-driven Xfmea quantitative value of 1/500 or .005. Likewise, a rating of O = 7
and RCM++ software tools have greatly improved an was used when the probability of failure was expected to be
organization's ability to store this information in a centralized around 10 per thousand items, for a quantitative value of
location that enables engineers to search for and extract the 1/100 or .01. And so on throughout the rest of the scale.
data they need. Now, with the transition to the Synthesis
Platform in Version 8, the software provides even more
opportunities to leverage the information from FMEAs.
The Failure Modes and Reliability Analysis (FMRA) is
one of the most versatile new integration features. This new
interface combines data from the system configuration and
FMEAs in order to display all of the assemblies, components
and failure modes that could have an impact on the overall
system reliability in a single hierarchical tree. This provides a
powerful and flexible new tool that can be used to facilitate a
variety of more advanced reliability analyses.
One innovative application for the FMRA is to use the
occurrence ratings from the FMEA's risk priority number
(RPN) calculations to generate a preliminary baseline reliability
estimate for the overall system very early in the development
process. The FMRA also makes it possible to integrate new
and better information as it becomes available, which enables Based on these probabilities, a reliability engineer could
design teams to continue to improve the reliability estimate as easily build a 1-parameter exponential reliability model for
the design matures. each failure cause as follows:

Application Example
A design group wants to start estimating the expected
reliability for a new system but it is too early in the development
process to have data from reliability testing. At this stage, only
the following information is available:
Design FMEA performed by a cross-functional team. This gives a simple failure distribution that can be assumed as
a starting point for each potential failure mode until better
Information about the reliability of some components when information becomes available to model the probability more
used in prior designs. accurately.
Engineering judgment and other design-stage analyses,
such as DOE and physics of failure. Creating the "First Draft" FMRA
The next step is to use the failure distributions defined for
They decide to utilize this information and the new FMRA
the potential failure modes in order to estimate the reliabilities
interface in Xfmea to build an initial reliability estimate based
of the components and subsystems, and then finally to
on the information that is currently available. They will use this
estimate the reliability of the system overall.
baseline calculation as a starting point, and continue to
improve the estimate as better data becomes available. Assuming that any one of the failure modes defined in a
component's FMEA could cause the component to fail (i.e.,
Defining Quantitative Values for FMEA Rating Scales the failure modes are considered to be reliability-wise in
The first step is to define a quantitative value to be series), an initial reliability estimate at any given time can be
associated with each rating in the FMEA occurrence scale. obtained by combining the cause probabilities to get the
The following figure shows the rating scale that was used by reliability of the component, and then combining the probabilities
the cross-functional team when assigning occurrence ratings for components and assemblies until we reach the system
to calculate Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) in the Design level.
FMEA. As you can see, the rating scale criteria already
includes quantitative values that the team used as a guide
when performing the FMEA.
Please Turn to Page 10

Volume 12, Issue 1 9

 Continued from Page 9:New Analysis Capabilities in Synthesis Applications
Because it is based only on the occurrence ratings Synchronizing with BlockSim
obtained directly from the FMEAs and assumes a series
If further analysis is required, the engineers have the
reliability-wise configuration for all failure modes, we will call
option to transfer the FMRA to BlockSim, which automatically
this the "first draft" FMRA. The following picture shows a highly
creates a reliability block diagram (RBD) based on the current
simplified example that makes it easy to see how the
information. The RBD can be used to calculate a variety of
calculations roll up to the failure mode, component and
system reliability metrics of interest (such as BX% Life and
assembly (subsystem) level.
Mean Life), and generate plots that are available in BlockSim
(such as Reliability vs. Time and Static Reliability Importance).

e
Vetting and Revising the "First Draft" FMRA
y
The next and most crucial step is to evaluate the
"first draft" FMRA and make the adjustments necessary to
e
ensure it reflects the best possible estimate of the system
reliability based on the information that is currently available.
= Furthermore, if the calculated baseline reliability is lower
Some (but not all) of the recommendations for "vetting" the
than the required reliability, the engineer can use reliability
automatically generated FMRA include:
importance measures to identify critical components or causes,
=
Discount or eliminate issues from the FMEAs that have no add redundancy to the system by using a parallel configuration
impact on reliability. or perform reliability allocation in order to determine which
Y components need to be improved in order to meet the target.
Incorporate other issues that impact reliability but were not
considered in the FMEAs.
,
Account for "common causes" that may appear multiple
times in the FMEAs but actually all represent the same
failure cause.
Review the occurrence ratings and cross-reference them
against any available data or past experience. If
appropriate, coordinate with the FMEA team when
assigned ratings may need further consideration.
Question the exponential distribution assumption (i.e.,
r constant failure rate) and replace the automatically
generated failure models with more appropriate
distributions when applicable. For example, if beta is
known, you can use a 1-parameter Weibull distribution
r coupled with the stated probability.
If the reliability-wise relationship between failure modes The FMRAs in BlockSim and Xfmea can be synchronized
y cannot be modeled with a simple series configuration, use so that any changes made in one tool can be reflected in the
the built-in synchronization with BlockSim (discussed in other. A case where this would be useful is if the performed
the next section) to define a more appropriate configuration FMEAs are at some point updated with additional failure
(e.g., for parallel redundancy). modes or causes, or if the occurrence ratings for specific
causes are revised. Additionally, as test data becomes
Once the analysis has been updated to consider all of the available, the engineers can update the component failure
data and past experience currently available to improve the distributions in the RBD in BlockSim in order to rerun the
analysis, the FMRA will represent at least a partially data-driven analysis and at the same time have this new information be
starting point that can continue to be updated as the product reflected in corresponding FMEAs that include this component.
design matures. Please Turn to Page 11

10 Reliability Edge
Continued from Page 10:New Analysis Capabilities in Synthesis Applications
Building Fault Trees and RBDs from Data in an FMEA
Another powerful application for the direct integration
between Xfmea/RCM++ and BlockSim within the Synthesis
Platform is the ability to automatically build fault trees and/or
reliability block diagrams (RBDs) based on data from FMEAs
performed at any level in even the most complex system
configuration. With the release of Version 8, there are now two
automated utilities designed to facilitate this data sharing:
Use the Build Effect Fault Trees from Synthesis utility
when you need to calculate the probability of occurrence
and understand the risk associated with particular high
severity effects that the organization is concerned about.
Automation of this process is particularly useful when
dealing with complex systems where multiple FMEAs are
performed for different subsystems and components, and
the same severe effect may be present in multiple
locations.
Use Build RBDs and Fault Trees from Synthesis when
you need to build a diagram to represent the entire system
configuration and all of the FMEAs that have been
performed. You can use these RBDs or fault trees to
perform a variety of more complex system analyses,
which can be used for reliability importance measures,
reliability allocation, maintenance planning and more.
The following simplified example illustrates both of these
potential applications.
Application Example
The picture below shows part of a turbofan engine system
configuration that was built in Xfmea to manage the FMEAs
performed for critical assemblies/components. Items identified
with a blue "F" icon have a completed FMEA. Overall, there
are more than thirty FMEAs for the system.
Volume 12, Issue 1
New in BlockSim
A cross-functional team has been assembled to evaluate
the risk in the new design. As part of that effort, they want to
use the data from the FMEAs to:
Build fault trees in BlockSim for the high severity effects of
most concern in order to a) clearly depict all of the "failure
paths" in the system that might lead to the particular effect
and b) obtain a preliminary estimate of the probability of
occurrence.
Build a set of RBDs (i.e., diagrams and subdiagrams) that
represent the entire system configuration and all of the
completed FMEAs so the team can identify the components
that have the biggest impact on the system reliability and
perform other system-level analyses.
Quantify Occurrence Probabilities for Failure Modes
The first step is to assign a quantitative failure probability
to all of the potential failure modes that have been identified in
the FMEAs.
If information about the failure probability is already
available, it can be used to define a statistical model for each
failure cause. For example, if the engineers already have data
about the probabilities of failure for known failure modes that
have occurred when the component was used under similar
circumstances in the past, they can analyze the data in
Weibull++ and use the Synthesis Platform to "publish" models
that can be linked from the failure causes in the FMEA.
If time-to-failure data is not yet available for all of the
components and potential failure modes, the occurrence
ratings from the FMEA's risk priority number (RPN) calculations
can be used as a starting point for those modes.
In this case, the engineers review the criteria used by the
FMEA team when setting the occurrence ratings, and they use
Xfmea to associate a quantitative value with each rating, as
shown next.
Please Turn to Page 13
11
 The ultimate system visualization and analysis toolTM

BlockSim provides a comprehensive platform for system analysis using the exact system reliability function or discrete
event simulation. The software provides sophisticated and flexible capabilities to model systems using a Reliability
Block Diagram (RBD) or Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) approach... or a combination of both!

Supports all relevant RBD configurations and FTAgates/events, along with advanced capabilities for complex
configurations, load sharing, standby redundancy, phases, duty cycles and more.
Exact reliability results and plots based on the exact system reliability function (using an exclusive algorithm
pioneered by ReliaSoft).
y
Extensive simulation options for analysis of repairable systems with a variety of results and plots to support
decision making, including uptime/downtime, availability, expected failures, spare parts requirements, optimum
e
replacement interval, life cycle cost summaries and throughput estimations.
y Powerful features for determining the optimum reliability allocation strategy, identifying components that may
require improvement and performing what-if analyses to evaluate different scenarios.
e http://BlockSim.ReliaSoft.com

Reliability growth and repairable system analysis

RGA was developed in cooperation with Dr. Larry Crow, the leading authority in the field of reliability growth
r analysis, as well as key development partners in government and industry. The software provides all the tools you
need to plan your reliability growth strategy and analyze data from developmental tests. RGA also applies reliability
growth models for fielded repairable system analysis, which provides optimum overhaul times and other results
r
without the detailed data sets that normally would be required.
y Comprehensive platform for traditional reliability growth analysis using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP), Duane,
Gompertz, Modified Gompertz, Lloyd-Lipow or logistic models.
Exclusive support for innovative approaches that facilitate reliability growth projections, reliability growth
program planning and multi-phase reliability growth analysis. Also offers an operational mission profile
feature for creating balanced test plans and tracking the actual testing against the plan.
A Design of Reliability Test (DRT) utility for repairable systems and a method for analyzing the system's
reliability behavior over time in order to calculate optimum overhaul times and other metrics of interest.
http://RGA.ReliaSoft.com
12 Reliability Edge
Continued from Page 11:New Analysis Capabilities in Synthesis Applications
Build Fault Trees for High Severity Effects The Show Results option in the control panel allows the
analysts to use the fault tree diagram to estimate the
The next step is to open the new Build Effect Fault Trees
probability of an uncommanded shutdown at 3,000 hours, as
from Synthesis utility that is now available in BlockSim 8.
shown next.
This window allows the user to type any text criteria to identify
the effect(s) of interest within the FMEA.
As an example, the "uncommanded engine shutdown"
failure effect appears multiple times across different FMEAs,
and it is a major safety concern. The FMEAs did not
consistently use the exact same terminology to describe every
situation in which an uncommanded engine shutdown might
occur. However, the analysts believe that all instances contain
the word "uncommanded" somewhere within the effect
description. In the new BlockSim utility, they specify Effect
then contains then uncommanded for the filter criteria. The
results are displayed as shown next.

The team then uses a similar process to build fault trees

for the other high severity effects of interest.

Build RBDs to Represent the Entire System

The last step is to build reliability block diagrams that
represent the entire system configuration and all of the
completed FMEAs. For this purpose, BlockSim 8 provides
another utility called Build RBDs and Fault Trees from
Synthesis. With this tool, the engineers select their preferences
on the first page then proceed to the next page to see the
hierarchical representation of the diagram that will be created.
At that point, the user has an opportunity to exclude specific
By scanning through the query results, the analysts
data from the analysis, if desired, by clearing check boxes in
confirm that all of these effects are of interest except
the hierarchical tree. The following picture shows a portion of
"uncommanded acceleration" so they clear the check box for
the hierarchical representation for the RBDs that will be
that record and click Next to create the fault tree. The next
created for the turbofan engine.
figure shows part of the fault tree for the "uncommanded
shutdown" effect.

The top gate represents the effect of interest, the gates

Once the diagrams are created, the team uses them to
on the next level represent the failure modes associated with
perform a variety of system reliability analyses, such as
the effect (in any of the FMEAs for the system) and the end
identifying the components and failure modes that have the
events represent all the causes of the failure modes. Each
biggest impact on system reliability (and unreliability).
event in the fault tree contains the cause occurrence
probabilities as defined in Xfmea. Please Turn to Page 14

Volume 12, Issue 1 13

 Continued from Page 13:New Analysis Capabilities in Synthesis Applications
Improving the Effectiveness of Maintenance Task Packaging
Task packaging is the process of combining discrete
maintenance tasks into an efficient, effective and executable
maintenance program. Concurrent tasks are combined into a
set of work packages in which the objective is to minimize
downtime and optimize the use of resources.
With the release of Version 8, RCM++ now offers a new
task packaging tool that provides more flexibility for
experimenting with possible packaging strategies. Users can
group tasks based on task interval, specific task properties, or
some combination of both.
Group by Task Interval: When grouping based on task
interval, you can specify a number of time clusters and the
software will automatically propose groups based on the
defined intervals for all unpackaged tasks. If these intervals
y
are too wide, you can automatically bisect specific groups as
needed until you reach a practical strategy. You also have the
e option to specify exact intervals and the software will
automatically group the tasks that meet the specified criteria.
y Group by Properties: The utility also provides the option
to group tasks based on the task type (failure finding, condition
e gets rounded down to 2880 and becomes "4 month
based, etc.), or based on the location of the maintained
equipment using the Zone or Access task properties. This
= packaging option can be very useful in cases where maintaining
a specific piece of equipment requires considerable effort or
has a significant effect on system operation (e.g., if the
=
maintenance for a specific piece of equipment significantly
reduces or halts production).
Y updates the properties of each task record to reflect the time
Application Example
, An engineering team has just concluded an RCM analysis
of a gas compression system. The team performed FMEAs on
the most critical equipment and used the information about
important functional failures to identify new maintenance tasks
14
New in RCM++
that are needed, revise existing tasks to be more effective and
remove any tasks that were found to not provide additional
value. After all maintenance tasks have been defined, the
team decides to create task packages to make the maintenance
effort more efficient.
First, they decide to group the tasks that take place in
critical locations. For example, the maintenance of the fuel gas
system results in an interruption of operation; therefore, all
tasks for this system are set to be performed at the same time.
The remaining tasks are chosen to be grouped automatically
by the tool into 12 groups based on their proposed task
intervals.
The team then reviews the suggested groups to determine
whether further adjustments are needed. They find that
although most of the proposed packages are appropriate, the
range of task intervals is too wide in some of the automatically
created groups. Therefore, they choose to ungroup those
tasks and manually set time intervals that are more appropriate.
Finally, they update each package to fit the practical
circumstances and apply a suitable name (e.g., 2937 hours
maintenance interval").
The figures below show part of the finalized set of
packages, along with the options at the top of the window that
are available for experimenting with different groupings. When
the team decides to apply the packaging strategy that is
currently displayed in the window, the software automatically
interval of the package it belongs to. In the figures below, this
is demonstrated for the "Dump valve overhaul" task, where the
originally proposed interval of 883.602 hours gets superseded
by the 960 hours interval that was defined for the "40 day
maintenance" package.
Please Turn to Page 15
Reliability Edge
Continued from Page 14:New Analysis Capabilities in Synthesis Applications

What's Coming in Synthesis Phase II?

Lastly, we wanted to take this opportunity to give you a
sneak peek at what's coming in the Phase II Synthesis release
that is currently expected to be available by the end of 2Q
2013. This will include major version upgrades for ReliaSoft's
XFRACAS, DOE++, RGA, RENO, Lambda Predict and MPC.
In the new version, these applications will be integrated
into the same platform with Weibull++, ALTA, BlockSim,
Xfmea and RCM++, and they will have all of the integration
and data management features that were introduced in
Synthesis Phase I (such as centralized data storage,
simultaneous access by multiple users, etc.). With this release,
we will also introduce the ability for all Synthesis applications
to share specific resources with any analysis project in the
entire data repository (in addition to the resources that can
already be shared at the project level in Phase I applications).
Here is a brief sampling of some of the new capabilities
that will be added to individual applications in Phase II.
XFRACAS
Failure Reporting, Analysis and Corrective Action System
Enhanced utilization of FRACAS-sourced data used in
other Synthesis applications (e.g., Weibull++ and RGA).
Enhanced reporting.
Multi-chart dashboards.
Support for Chrome and Firefox web browsers.
DOE++
Experiment Design and Analysis
Design evaluation, including power study and D-efficiency
calculations.
Measurement system analysis, including gage R&R,
linearity and bias study, and gage agreement study.
Optimal design, including D-optimal and distance-based
optimal design.
New optimization tool that can optimize the life response
and other responses simultaneously.
RGA
Reliability Growth and Repairable Systems Analysis
Improved interface for reliability growth planning.
Increased the maximum number of test phases to 10.
RENO
Simulation Software for Probabilistic Event and Risk Analysis
Ability to define global variables that allow for dynamic
changes to the characteristics of models during simulation.
Ability to use BlockSims simulation and analytical
diagrams in RENO simulations.
Lambda Predict
Standards Based Reliability Prediction
New FIDES module.
Support for Telcordia SR-332, Issue 3.
MPC
MSG-3 Aircraft Maintenance Program Creation Tool
Support for MSG-3 Revision 2011.1.
Addition of structural analysis.

Register Now!
International
Applied Reliability Symposium
"Sharing applications, success stories and lessons learned in
reliability and maintainability engineering."

2013 ARS, North America

June 5 - 7, 2013 in Minneapolis, Minnesota
The program for ARS, North America will provide a choice of results-oriented presentations and expert
tutorials. The Symposium also provides many opportunities to engage with fellow reliability professionals and
to visit exhibitor booths for information about available analysis tools and reliability engineering services.

http://www.ARSymposium.org

Volume 12, Issue 1 15

 An Analysis Platform, Knowledge Repository
and Intelligence Center, all rolled into one powerful
enterprise-capable reliability system.

synthesis
A successful workplace thrives on
teamwork, efficiency and innovative
ideas. Why should reliability
noun (from Greek )
engineering be any different?
1. The combining of separate elements
Created with your business needs or substances to form a coherent
whole.
in mind, Synthesis is an integrated
reliability platform that can unite any 2. The act of combining separate ideas,
beliefs and styles, etc.
or all of ReliaSoft's "best-in-class"
reliability engineering applications into
a powerful, easy-to-deploy, enterprise-capable, integrated reliability solution.

This groundbreaking new framework provides intelligent integration between

reliability program activities and tools, while simultaneously facilitating effective
information sharing and cooperation between engineering teams of any size.

The end result is the ability to maximize the efficiency and effectiveness of
reliability activities, which results in time savings, agility and reductions in
both time-to-market and cost, while maximizing the achieved reliability and
associated ROI. Thats the power of the Synthesis Platform!

http://Synthesis.ReliaSoft.com
 Introducing the Synthesis Platform
The Synthesis Platform is the result of a multi-year R&D effort focused on developing the right
processes, analysis tools and IT framework to synthesize discrete reliability activities into a
continuously self-improving reliability program with significant contributions from each activity.

Designed to address the feedback and needs expressed by thousands of reliability practitioners in
virtually every industry, the new platform leverages classical reliability engineering methodologies and
existing best practices coupled with a new and intelligent approach to integration.

Eliminates "Islands" of Information

In todays dynamic and knowledge-driven business
world, data and information sharing are essential
for innovation and improvement in products,
services and processes.

Without an effective infrastructure in place

to facilitate collaboration between engineers
with different responsibilities and subject
matter expertise, too many organizations
face the problem of disconnected "islands" of
reliability information that limit their ability to meet and
exceed reliability and productivity goals.

The Synthesis Platform eliminates these barriers by providing a structured, flexible and secure
back-end database that promotes information sharing between teams of any size, with related or
different subject matter expertise, and coming from the same or different organizational units.

Facilitates Effective Collaboration Between Subject Matter Experts

Data sharing in itself does not guarantee that the information will be used correctly and effectively by
everyone involved. When the organization employs different subject matter experts for different reliability
activities, how do you ensure that the often complex information and knowledge shared by one expert
will be understood and used appropriately by other practitioners who need it?
The solution is the revolutionary object-based reliability modeling (OBRM) concept pioneered by
ReliaSoft, which hides activity-specific complexity while exposing what is useful for others to leverage.
With OBRM, each application "knows" what information to provide to other activities, as well as how to
use the information it receives.

Intelligent Integration Without Sacrificing Analytical Power

Traditionally, software integration has meant that a certain amount of core functionality was sacrificed or
at least compromised. That is certainly not the case with the Synthesis Platform.
Individually, all of the Version 8 ReliaSoft applications (called "Synthesis Elements") continue to stand
out as the most powerful, functional and user-friendly reliability software on the market. When
used together, they retain their own unique strengths while leveraging relevant information from the
entire suite of products to achieve an integrated solution that truly is greater than the sum of its parts.
Fluidly Shares Information Between Reliability Activities
Whether you are a lone reliability engineer in a small organization or an executive with thousands of
engineers working together on many different product lines, the Synthesis Platform was designed to
meet your needs. The platform and software tools offer both the depth and breadth of reliability
functionality necessary for a successful reliability program implementation from cradle to grave.

Finally, engineers with different expertise and responsibilities (and even if they're working in different
departments or facilities across the globe) can take advantage of a centralized and structured framework
to facilitate the transfer of reliability knowledge throughout the product life cycle.

Consider just a few basic examples of the many different ways your organization may choose to
use the Synthesis Platform to facilitate, support and enhance Design for Reliability (DFR) and/or
Asset Performance Management (APM) activities.

Working in Weibull++ and ALTA, reliability engineers analyze available data to quantify the probability
of occurrence for known failure modes. This information is then available in Xfmea where...

The Design FMEA team links directly to available analysis results in their efforts to understand
and reduce the risk in the design. Then the FMEA data is available for BlockSim where...

Design engineers leverage the knowledge recorded in the FMEA to build RBDs and/or fault
trees for critical tasks such as estimating the baseline reliability, identifying critical failure modes,
allocating reliability requirements, evaluating risk and planning maintenance strategies...

This type of collaboration continues throughout all other reliability activities and life cycle stages.
As the body of knowledge improves in each stage, automated feedback mechanisms ensure that
the most up-to-date information continues to be available to all activities, providing a continuous,
self-improving, closed knowledge loop.
Automatically Builds a Reliability Knowledge Repository
At the same time that the Synthesis Platform is facilitating information sharing and collaboration for
ongoing projects, the system is simultaneously building a secure, permission-based and searchable
corporate repository of reliability knowledge.

The data, analysis and lessons learned that are captured by the repository can be accessible to
engineers throughout the organization, providing a huge head start on future projects by making it easy
to reuse and build upon existing information.

This instant access to versatile, organization-wide reliability data provides a strong foundation that will
not only save a tremendous amount of time, it will also greatly improve the outcome of future
projects.

Robust & Scalable Architecture:

Single-User, Multi-User or Enterprise Deployments in One
The Synthesis Platform and applications were designed from the ground
up to be "connection aware" and to adapt automatically to single-user,
multi-user and enterprise configurations.

The exact same software solution that

you might deploy for a single reliability
engineer on a single computer can
be scaled to a global enterprise with
thousands of engineers on a server farm
functioning as a corporate repository. This
provides both complete deployment
flexibility and, best of all, true
scalability.

The full functionality is available with every license type

(you do not need to purchase a special "enterprise
license"). Both SQL Server and Oracle enterprise
database platforms are supported; users can also share
the platform's built-in standard repositories through their
own networks with no special configuration required.

Built by Reliability Engineers for Reliability Engineers:

A Revolutionary Reliability Solution That Will Continue to Evolve
The groundbreaking new features and robust enhancements of the Synthesis
Platform are just the latest chapter in ReliaSoft's 20+ year history of innovation
and support for engineers engaged in reliability activities throughout all stages of
the product life cycle. Our unwavering commitment to continuous investment in
R&D and our focus on developing practical solutions means that you can expect
to see even more result-driven concepts and innovative additions to the Synthesis
Platform for years to come.
 Continued from Page 1:Accelerated Testing with the Inverse Power Law"
Accelerated testing is not about detecting PPM (parts per
million) level faults. Most test programs run few parts, perhaps
a dozen or fewer. Considering that the probability of finding a
PPM level issue with 12 samples approaches the odds on
some lotteries the chance of success is low. That said, test
conditions can be set up that occur rarely in the field
(temperature extremes, for example) and therefore may be
able to induce failure modes that are difficult to detect when
testing within the design envelope.
Another useful application for the ALT data is to aid in
determining the effect of operating a system outside its original
design conditions. Generally, this allows the development of
reasonably accurate estimates of life when operated at higher
loads.
What is Stress?
y 2. Soft Failure the component ceases to function while the
Simply put, stress is anything that can cause a component
or system to fail. Some of the obvious factors are:
e levels of stress. Example: A frozen but not burst water
Mechanical loads (e.g., stress / strain / force)
y Hydrostatic / dynamic forces (e.g., pressure / wind loads)
Temperature extremes and thermal shocks
e stress is applied. Performance may return to "normal"
Vibration inputs (e.g., GRMS road load / engine vibration)
= Corrosive environments (e.g., sea water / road salt)
These are probably some of the first factors that come to
= mind when evaluating the "strength" of a particular design.
But, depending on the usage and the material, just about
Y anything can cause the system to degrade or fail prematurely,
so one needs to keep an open mind when developing
, accelerated life tests.
In the field, unlike the lab where single stress testing is
common, multiple stresses are quite often applied at the same
time. The combination of multiple stresses can interact and
essentially increase the effective stress applied. It is also
possible to add in the lab stressors that are not present in the
field to further speed up testing. The problem comes when it
is time to determine the lab-field correlation, or how many
hours in the field is equivalent to an hour on test.
r One good example of this is in corrosion testing where
acetic acid is added to the salt fog solution in SWAAT (ASTM
G85 - Annex 3) type tests for automotive radiators. While the
r lower pH of the solution accelerates corrosion, outside of a
few situations, little "salad dressing" is actually seen on the
roads. In this case, much work is needed to relate the life of a
y component in the test chamber to that on the road. For this
reason, it is generally better not to introduce artificial factors
early in the development of an accelerated life test program or
specification.
What is Life?
Life is basically any quantifiable measure of durability for
a component or system. The end of life does not necessarily
need to be the destruction of the component.
20
Understanding the failure criteria is a prerequisite for most
testing. Obviously, if the component is in multiple barely
recognizable pieces at the end of the test, failure will be easy
to conclude. Many other cases can also be considered as
failure; for example, if a frozen but not burst water pump will
probably return to normal output when it thaws, does that
constitute a failure?
It is important to have a firm grasp before testing starts as
to what will be considered a failure and result in the termination
of the test. Three principle types of failure to consider are:
1. Hard Failure the component ceases to function and
does not return to usable status when the stress is
removed. This is generally called a destructive failure.
Example: A frozen and burst water pump.
elevated stress is applied but returns to function at normal
pump.
3. Performance Failure the component continues to
function but at a reduced level of performance while the
once the stress is removed but a permanent reduction in
performance is also a possibility. Example: A water pump
that functions but at a lower output.
It is important to keep the end user in mind when
determining if an outcome is a failure. Something that is a
concern to the design team may not be detected by the end
user; so is it a failure? A good example of this is the failure of
a single pixel in an LCD TV array possibly an indication of
design issues but probably unnoticed by someone watching
the latest Hollywood release. Even if multiple pixels fail, they
may not be noticed unless they are grouped together. It is
important not to overestimate the sensitivity of end users to
"engineering" failures.
In most components and just about all systems, there will
be more than one failure mode possible. These failure modes
may interact (mask or enhance each other), and are generally
thought of as "competing" failure modes. In these cases, it is
best to focus on the end user's experience. A very effective
system model can be derived if all failure modes that lead to
the same outcome are lumped together for analysis purposes.
The motorist may not care about the details as to why the car
will not start but will certainly notice when it does not.
Life-Stress Relationships
Generally speaking, the "life" of a component will go down
as stress goes up. While this is not a hard and fast rule, very
few systems do not behave in this intuitive fashion. This allows
for shorter test times at higher levels of stress. With solid
knowledge of the life-stressor relationship, effective predictions
of life at normal or usage conditions can be made.
Please Turn to Page 21
Reliability Edge
Continued from Page 20:Accelerated Testing with the Inverse Power Law
Probably the most important and widely used model for
mechanical systems is the inverse power law (IPL).
The most critical factor is n, the life-stressor slope with s
being stress applied to the system. A is a convenient
mathematical constant; in reality it relates the basic mechanical
strength of the design to resist the stress applied to it.
More generally, if multiple stressors need to be considered,
the model is given by:
Since most fatigue testing generally fits a Weibull
distribution, it may be best to consider the life being modeled
as the mean or B10 life of the component.
An important measure often used in life testing is the
acceleration factor (AF), which relates how one cycle or hour
at an elevated stress level (S ) relates to the usage, or base,
level (SBase ).
There are many other life-stress relationships that are
commonly employed based on the underlying physics of
failure. See references [1] and [3] for more information.
Inverse Power Law in Action
The practical application of the IPL allows "scaling,"
through the acceleration factor, of data and predictions from
one stress level to another. In general, this is used to predict
the life of a component at a stress level lower than was tested.
The following plot depicts a typical IPL relationship (with a life
stress slope of 4) that could represent the life of a component
or a full system. In general, the data are plotted using a log-log
representation, with the stressor as the abscissa (horizontal
axis) and the life as the ordinate (vertical axis).
Volume 12, Issue 1
With this example, if testing were conducted at 4 g of input
acceleration, the expected life would be about 35 hours. This
can be related back to a prediction at the operating conditions
(1 g) to a life of about 10,000 hours. The acceleration factor is
256, or 1 hour at 4 g is equivalent to 256 hours at 1 g.
Basically, using this data, we can test any number of
components to failure in a few days and get feedback about
durability at base conditions without testing for 416+ days. In
practice though, acceleration factors much above 100 can
prove problematic by producing false failures that would not
be seen in the field.
Adding Up Damage Miners Rule
Most systems and components do not see constant stress
input throughout their service lives. In most cases, there are
low high low periods of loading. Likewise in testing, it may
not be practical to always run at fixed levels of input. At lower
levels, closer to field conditions, the time required to run until
failure may be prohibitive. In these cases, it may be
advantageous to "step" or increase the stress over time. The
problem comes down to analyzing the resulting data and
relating back to field or base conditions.
One way of dealing with these sorts of situations is to use
a damage model. The foundation of most damage models is
that each cycle or hour of stress exposure accumulates
damage leading to eventual failure. One of the most popular,
and easiest to interpret models is Miners rule.
When applying Miners rule, each constant stress step
accumulates damage based on the ratio of the duration of the
step (Ni ) to the life of the component if the whole test had
been run at that level (Li ). The failure point is predicted to
occur when the total damage (DTotal summed from each step)
reaches unity. Using the slope and data model from the
previous plot as a simple three-step example:
Stress Time Life at Level
Step [g] (hr) (hr) Step Damage
1 2 10 625 0.016
2 3 10 124 0.081
3 5 10 16 0.625
Total Damage 0.72
The total damage sums to 0.72 so the component would
not be expected to fail. Another way of looking at the same
data is that 30 hours of testing time (3 x 10 hour steps) would
accumulate a similar amount of damage as if the unit had run
for 425 hours at the lowest level of 2 g. This large acceleration
factor comes from the sensitivity of the component to stress
being quite significant n is 4 in this example.
Please Turn to Page 23
21
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22 Reliability Edge
Continued from Page 21:Accelerated Testing with the Inverse Power Law
Obviously, this simple tool has limitations but it can be
used surprisingly effectively to aid in developing test plans and
in relating results of similar tests run at different levels. In
general, not all samples in any given fatigue-based test will fail
at the same time. Miners rule is probably best used to predict/
scale either B10 or mean life, much like working with the IPL.
Determining the IPL Slope
The three methods outlined next can be used to determine
with reasonable accuracy the slope of the life-stressor line for
a particular design or material.
1. IPL Slope from Datasheets
The easiest means of determining the life-stressor slope is
to simply "look it up." For mechanical types of loads that
translate into basic stress and strain in the base materials of
the components, data from textbooks and datasheets can be
used to give guidance. In general practice, S-N curves can be
quite limited to generic materials and may not adequately
represent the stress state of a component in use. While a
significant data set is available for most metals, often little data
will exist for other materials. In cases where data can be
found, it most likely will not incorporate effects of mean stress
and probably was determined through the use of bending or
uniaxial tension on standard coupons.
The following plot is representative of what is typically
available from open literature. While we are interested in life-
stress relationships, most of the data to be found is plotted in
the "opposite" direction, as stress-life or S-N data.
The first problem one encounters with textbook data is
that it generally covers a wide range of stress/strain conditions,
from low cycle fatigue up to "infinite" life. Depending on the
application of the system under investigation, choosing which
portion of the data to use for your estimate can be critical.
Because the life-stress slope is usually quite different in
low cycle fatigue regions than in high, it is important to have
an idea of the stress state (high vs. low) that the components
will see during field use. Consider the plot shown next. There
are many possible ways to fit a straight slope to the data for
this plot; each will result in significant differences.
Volume 12, Issue 1
For example, if the whole range of the presented data is
used (red line) that results in a S-N slope of about 0.08, which
translates into a life-stress of n = 12. On the other hand if we
know that the operational and test regime will be in the high
cycle fatigue range then the blue line is a better choice from
this data. With that assumption, a life-stress slope of about
10:1 is found. This is quite a large difference, especially when
you recall that this is the exponent in the equation. Since very
few systems are designed to survive only a few cycles, when
in doubt bias the fit towards the lower stress, high cycle data.
It is best to use textbook data only as a starting point or for
rough estimates. There are just too many factors at work for
accurate predictions, even in non safety-critical systems.
2. IPL Slope from Material Testing
The second method for determining the life-stress slope is
to perform simple experiments with samples of the actual
material in use. This has the advantage of being able to
closely resemble the stress state in the field and may be the
only choice if "textbook" data is not available for the material
of concern. One other advantage is that it presents the
opportunity to gather data using field equivalent types of
loads, such as GRMS values for vibration over a more generic
mechanical stress. This may also be the only choice if the life-
limiting stress is unconventional, such as the exposure of
aluminum to mild acid solutions previous discussed.
The following plot (page 24) is based on data taken from
an experiment with an aluminum brazing sheet used at Dana
Corporation to make oil cooler brackets little fatigue data
existed for this material in post-brazed conditions. It was most
expedient to construct a small series of tests with weighted
strips of material attached to the shaker table hence they
were called the "flapping strip" experiments.
The experiment was quite simple. 10 coupons 6 long
were mounted vertically on a shaker table and a sine sweep
from 10 100 Hz was performed. Four levels of input were
used from 2.5 up to 4 gPeak. These levels and the frequencies
involved do not differ much from some of the inputs seen from
actual road load testing of full cooler systems.
Please Turn to Page 24
23
 Continued from Page 23:Accelerated Testing with the Inverse Power Law"
y component should only see one stress level during the
-
e Due to the abstract nature of the experiment, little more
than the slope of the life-stress line (3.5 in this case) is of
y value in future designs and testing analysis. One interesting
observation is that if textbook data had been used to estimate
e the slope for this material, a slope of closer to 10 would have
been found a great deal different than what the experiments
showed. Had the higher estimate been used, gross errors in
= predictions would have been made that could have led to
debate on the validity of the test, or worse, the suitability of the
= component. The investment of a day or so in effort to organize
and a couple days of shaker time was well worth the results.
Y analysis, if all the data points are considered to fit one model,
3. IPL Slope from System Testing
, The final method to determine the life-stressor relationship
is to perform system or sub-system level testing. This tends to
be the most costly and time-consuming method but also
produces data that most closely represents field usage.
If the components have a significant design margin
(especially a safety-critical item) then running at operation
conditions may be impractically long but unfortunately provides
the most useful data point. Working with components as close
as possible to production design generally produces results
r and uses inputs that most closely resemble field conditions.
The inputs and outputs do not need to be abstract
concepts such as stress and strain, but rather engineering
r and user inputs such as temperature, button pushes, speeds
and on-off-on cycles. Having easy-to-interpret results, such
y as hours or days to failure, also helps in relating testing and
predictions to full system analysis and field conditions.
Some tips to consider for system testing:
1. You can never have too much data. Run at least two
samples at a minimum of three different stress levels. Run
at least one set as close to the field conditions as possible,
even if you do not have time to run to failure. Bias your
samples towards the end of the range. For more, see [1].
24
2. Run all samples to failure. The added information from
failure analysis is quite valuable for future designs. This
not only aids in understanding of failure modes but
working towards eliminating those failures also generally
improves the reliability and durability of the product.
3. Watch for failure mode switches at higher input
levels. This might be a sign that you have exceeded
reasonable limits of testing or switched to a low cycle
fatigue regime. It is important to be careful not to induce
foolish failures use common sense when examining
results and developing testing levels. If a failure mode
that is impossible to occur in the field is forced, what truly
is gained in the exercise?
4. Work with multiple levels of fixed stress. Each
test. While it is possible to use Miners rule to help analyze
step-stress or variable stress testing, it adds another level
of analysis in determining the life-stressor slope.
As pointed out above, the switch from high to low cycle
fatigue can be problematic and represents the practical upper
limit of acceleration that can be achieved. In general, the
switch is not a clear cut-off point but a gradual transition.
Thus, it is important to look for signs of this transition in data.
The first plot below comes from a case study into the
durability of an oil cooler exposed to cyclical pressure. In this
a life-stress slope of ~ 2.8 is found. It is apparent that not all
of the data, especially at the limits, fits the model very well.
The second plot (page 25) is the same data set but
broken into two sections, a high and low stress regime. The
data set fits a high-low model much better. The key is to
understand where the operating point of the system lies to
choose which model, the low (n = 2) or the high stress model,
where there is more sensitivity to stress.
Please Turn to Page 25
Reliability Edge
Continued from Page 24:Accelerated Testing with the Inverse Power Law
References
1. W. B. Nelson. Accelerated Testing: Statistical Models,
Test Plans, and Data Analysis, USA: Wiley-Interscience,
1990.
2. H. W. McLean. HALT, HASS & HASA Explained, USA:
ASQ Quality Press, 2000.
3. ReliaSoft Corporation. Accelerated Life Testing Reference,
Tucson, AZ: ReliaSoft Publishing, 2007.

About the Author

Recommendations
Accelerated life testing can save time and cost during the
design and development validation phase in many industries.
With little effort, basic life-stressor models can be developed
using the inverse power law model. Having a firm grasp on
the sensitivities to exposure at different levels of field stresses
is a valuable tool to assess suitability to "off-design" conditions.
This can then be used to explore sensitivity of a system to its
"inputs" and thereby develop more robust components.
Harland MacKenzie is the reliability manager for Dana
Power Technologies in Oakville, Ontario. He acts as a resource
to the company in areas of testing, reliability and statistics. His
primary interests are centered around using and developing
techniques to improve design and development testing, with a
focus on improving product performance and reducing warranty
cost. Harland has presented at several Applied Reliability
Symposium (ARS) conferences over the past several years on
the subject of accelerated life testing. He also teaches courses
within Dana and has several publications in the area of testing
and specification development for automotive components and
systems. He can be reached at harland.mackenzie@dana.com.

DOE Software Designed with Reliability in Mind!SM

DOE++ facilitates traditional Design of Experiments (DOE) techniques for studying the significant factors that affect a
product or process in order to optimize test plans and improve designs. The software also expands upon standard
methods to provide the proper analysis treatment for interval and censored data a major breakthrough for
reliability-related analyses!
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One Factor Designs Response Surface Method Designs

Factorial Designs
Two Level Full Factorial
Two Level Fractional Factorial
Plackett-Burman
General Full Factorial
Taguchi Orthogonal Array
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Central Composite
Box-Behnken
Reliability DOE Only in DOE++
One Factor Reliability Designs
Two Level Full Factorial Reliability Designs
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Plackett-Burman Reliability Designs

http://DOE.ReliaSoft.com

Volume 12, Issue 1 25

 Increasing Mandrel Life in a Cold Ring Rolling Process Guest Submission
An Application of DOE Principles to Reliability Analysis

Tayfun Kocabas Life Data Analysis of Mandrels Before the Study

SPAC Consulting, Ltd. Prior to the study, we analyzed 24 complete data points
Improving the life of machine equipment means a lot to using the Weibull++ software. The life distribution of mandrels
process owners. With an increased life the number of with diameter 15mm followed a 2-parameter Weibull
breakdowns during the shift decreases and thus equipment distribution with a shape parameter () = 1.925 and scale
effectiveness and efficiency increase. This is the operational parameter () = 972 cycles.
side. On the other hand, you can accomplish shortened
process lead times and hence satisfy your customers orders Multiple Responses
on time. There are two responses for this DOE study. One is the
In the center of this study we life of the mandrel (cycles) and the other is the cycle time of
have a cold ring rolling machine the process (seconds/piece). At the end of this study, the life
that is used to form the inner and of the mandrel should be increased, but at the same time the
the outer rings of ball bearings. The process cycle time must not get longer. Therefore the DOE
y rings are rolled on cylindrical model must be solved for multiple responses.
equipment called a mandrel. After
Experiment Design
e a certain number of rings have
been rolled, the mandrel breaks Using the DOE++ software, a fractional factorial experiment
down into two pieces. was designed with the properties shown next.
y
Our aim is to increase the life of the mandrel by designing
e an experiment that includes the controllable process
parameters and different materials used to produce the
mandrel. Although increasing the life of the mandrel is in the
=
core of this study, the cycle time of the process, which is
another output, should not be increased. So the multiple
= response optimization method is used to solve the problem.
Throughout the study, ReliaSoft's DOE++ and Weibull++
Y software are used to analyze life characteristics and to obtain
the best factor combination.
, Cold Ring Rolling Process
In the cold ring rolling process, the machine forms rolls
inside and outside of the ring by a mandrel and forming roll.
The work piece expands about 20% at
the external diameter by form rolling. Because running a full factorial experiment is expensive
Sizing is done after form rolling and the and time-consuming, we used a fractional factorial design in
work piece drops from the machine the study. The team also checked the curvature effect by
outlet. using center points in the design. Table 2 summarizes the
r The inner diameter of the preform seven factors used.
ring determines the outer diameter of Table 2: Seven factors in the fractional factorial design
the mandrel. If the inner diameter of the
preform is small, the outer diameter of ID Name Low Level High Level
r
the mandrel should also be small. The A Hardness 56.5 61.5
smaller the outer diameter of the B Pressure 4 7
y mandrel, the shorter the life. C Speed 2 4
D Machine E502 Y522
Holding the size of the preform E Length 130 133
rings constant, this article describes F Flatness 2 4
how a Design of Experiments (DOE) G Material Material2 Material1
analysis was done to increase the life of
the mandrel while keeping the cycle Factor A is the hardness of the mandrel. Factor B is the
time to a reasonable level. pressure level of the rolling machine. Factor C is the feed rate
of the rolling machine. Factor D is the condition of the rolling
Please Turn to Page 27

26 Reliability Edge
Continued from Page 26:Increasing Mandrel Life in a Cold Ring Rolling Process
machine (where E502 is the old one and Y522 is the new Obtaining the DOE Model
one). Factor E is the length of the mandrel. Factor F is the
In the first phase of analysis, the solution model was
flatness of the mandrel design. Factor G represents the two
obtained with respect to the life response. By reducing the
new materials used to produce the mandrel.
model terms according to the statistical significance (=5%),
Carrying Out the Experiment the results obtained are shown next.

When the test was designed, the hardness factor was

assumed to be controllable by the team, and therefore the
recommended test design had 44 runs with 7 factors. However
when the measurements were done, the hardness of the
mandrels was not exactly at high or low levels. Since this
factor was found to be not controllable, the team decided to
treat the hardness column as a covariate during the analysis.
This keeps the design "orthogonal" for the other 6 factors, and
requires the assumption that the hardness covariate does not
interact with other factors in the model. The results for all 44
This model has an explanation power of the life response
runs were automatically imported to DOE++ using the File 2
as R adj=65.6% and =1123. The best combination that
Import Wizard, as shown below. Then the data were analyzed
maximizes the life response is Machine Y522, Material 1,
as 6 factors with 1 covariate.
Speed=2, Pressure=4, Flatness=2 and Length=130. With this
combination, the average life is predicted to be 10,358 pieces.
However, this combination results in 13.5 seconds/piece
cycle time, which is nearly two times the current cycle time.
So this treatment is not an acceptable solution.
Very long CT=13,5 sec.

Reliability DOE vs. Classical DOE

The DOE++ software offers an analysis approach called
Reliability DOE that has two basic advantages over classical
DOE. First, suspended data can be incorporated into the
model calculations along with complete data. Secondly, Then the runs were solved for the second response,
responses do not have to be distributed normally at any which is cycle time. The results obtained are shown next.
treatment level.
In this study, because one of the responses is the life of
the mandrel, other distributions such as Weibull, exponential 9,7688 0,2112 9,3374 10,2001 46,2521
A:MACHINE 0,15 0,075 0,1801 -0,2928 0,4428 0,4164 0,6801
or lognormal are also possible. However, after considering the C:MATERIAL -0,5318 -0,2659 0,1801 -0,6338 0,1019 -1,4763 0,1503
options, the team chose classical DOE for the following -1,3625 -0,6812 0,2112 -1,1126 -0,2499 -3,2255
E:PRESSURE 0,7625 0,3812 0,2112 -0,0501 0,8126 1,8051 0,0811
reasons: 0,9125 0,4562 0,2112 0,0249 0,8876 2,1602
-1,025 -0,5125 0,2112 -0,9438 -0,0812 -2,4265
All the data are complete (no suspensions). -1 -0,5 0,2112 -0,9313 -0,0687 -2,3674
1,1625 0,5812 0,2112 0,1499 1,0126 2,752
The two responses should be optimized together. -0,9875 -0,4938 0,2112 -0,9251 -0,0624 -2,3378
1,075 0,5375 0,2112 0,1062 0,9688 2,5449
While life follows the Weibull distribution, cycle time -0,9625 -0,4812 0,2112 -0,9126 -0,0499 -2,2786
-1,1375 -0,5688 0,2112 -1,0001 -0,1374 -2,6929
follows the normal distribution. -0,9438 0,4044 -1,7697 -0,1178 -2,3335

Currently there is no available DOE software that optimizes

the results coming from different distributions.
For the life response, the normality assumption is not
violated strongly.
Volume 12, Issue 1
The best combination that minimizes the cycle time
response is Machine E502, Material 1, Speed=4, Pressure=4,
Flatness=2 and Length=133. With this combination, the
average cycle time is predicted to be 5.75 seconds/piece.
Please Turn to Page 29
27
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Specifying the reliability of an item you are contracting to an
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y Developing a reliability program plan that focuses on cost
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Leveraging the lessons learned from historical data.
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Balancing deadlines associated with RMS tasks using
an overburdened staff.
y
Establishing best-in-class RMS practices without
fully understanding the steps to reach this goal.
e Performing maintenance practices with limited
resources while ensuring that requirements are
= not compromised.
Quantifying the reliability of your product
= through effective accelerated life tests.
Identifying the root cause of repeated warranty
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, maintainability and supportability (RMS) challenges.
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28
2007 Alion Science and Technology Corporation
Reliability Edge
Continued from Page 27:Increasing Mandrel Life in a Cold Ring Rolling Process
However, this combination results in a life of 3,897 pieces per
mandrel. This result for life is very low compared to other
combinations.
Very short
life=3897 pcs.
(Note: Observant readers may notice from the figure on
page 27 that curvature was found to be significant in the
analysis for the cycle time response. This was not a cause of
concern for the purposes of this study because the primary
objective was to improve the life of the mandrels and it was
only necessary to control the cycle time at reasonable
levels.)
When both of the single-response analyses were found to
be inadequate, the team decided to perform a third analysis
that considered both life and cycle time together. This analysis
utilized the multiple response optimization features of DOE++,
and the next figure shows a plot of the optimal solution.
The resulting combination that both optimizes life and
cycle time is found to be Machine Y522, Material 2, Speed=2,
Pressure=4, Flatness=2 and Length=130. With these factor
levels, the mandrel has an average life of 9,069 pieces and
cycle time of 8.7 seconds/piece.
Confirmation Runs
We have made three confirmation runs in the best
combination that maximizes life and minimizes cycle time.
Table 3 gives the results. These results show that the best
factor combination of the experiment is confirmed.
Volume 12, Issue 1
Table 3: Confirmation runs
Pressure Speed Machine Length Flatness Material Life Cycle
4 2 Y522 130 2 Material2 10,490 7.1 sec
4 2 Y522 130 2 Material2 10,200 8.2 sec
4 2 Y522 130 2 Material2 11,200 7.5 sec
= 1123
=9069
10200 pcs 10490 pcs 11200 pcs
8,2 sec 7,1 sec 7,5 sec
Concluding Thoughts
This study is a good application of DOE principles to the
reliability analysis of machine equipment. In order to improve
the life characteristic of the mandrel, process parameters
such as the speed of the machine or the material used to
manufacture the mandrel are changed in a systematic manner
and also noise factors such as the hardness of the material
are taken into consideration. Optimization of the process
parameters is done with respect to both life and cycle time
responses. By the use of the multiple response optimization
technique, the life of the mandrel was improved by nearly nine
times while keeping the cycle time at reasonable levels.
References
1. ReliaSoft Corporation. Experiment Design and Analysis
Reference, Tucson, AZ: ReliaSoft Publishing, 2008.
2. ReliaSoft Corporation. Hands On: Reliability DOE with
Covariates. Internet: http://www.weibull.com/hotwire/
issue99/hottopics99.htm, May 2009.
3. ReliaSoft Corporation. Importing Data from Excel Files to
DOE++. Internet: http://www.weibull.com/hotwire/
issue107/hottopics107.htm, January 2010.
4. S. R. Schmidt and R. G. Launsby. Understanding Industrial
Designed Experiments, 4th ed. Colorado Springs, CO: Air
Academy Press, 2005.
About the Author
Tayfun Kocabas is currently working as a consultant at
S.P.A.C. Consulting, which he joined in 2007. He holds a B.S.
in Industrial Engineering from Middle East Technical University
and an M.B.A. in Business Administration from Dokuz Eylul
University. He had worked in the automotive industry and the
domestic appliance industry. His primary areas of interests are
Reliability Engineering, Six Sigma applications, Design of
Experiments and Accelerated Life Tests. He is a registered
Certified Reliability Professional (CRP) by ReliaSoft and is
currently serving as a representative and distribution partner for
ReliaSoft in Turkey. For additional information, he can be
reached at tayfun.kocabas@spac.com.tr.
29
 If you can flowchart it, you can simulate itTM

ReliaSoft's RENOsoftware employs a visual and intuitive flowcharting approach that allows you to build models to
analyze even the most complex probabilistic scenarios via simulation. You can use RENO for a wide variety of
applications, such as risk analysis, complex reliability modeling, maintenance planning, optimization, operational
research and financial analysis.
Easy to Build Flowchart Models: RENOprovides a full array of definitions and constructs to build
flowchart models, including constants, random variables, equation variables, conditionals, logic gates, result
storage and flag markers.
y Flexible Array of Results with Multiple Display Options: RENOs simulation engine can generate a wide
variety of results, including averages, sums, arrays, min/max values and last values. Results can be displayed
e during the simulation, in spreadsheets, in the flowchart or in graphical plots.
Sensitivity Analysis and Optimizations:RENO allows you to vary one or two constants across simulation
y runs based on the starting, ending and increment values that you specify. In addition, the software can
perform multiple simulation runs automatically to determine the value that minimizes or maximizes a
e specific result.
http://RENO.ReliaSoft.com
=

MIL-217 * Bellcore/Telcordia * NSWC Mechanical

When actual product reliability data is not available, standards based reliability prediction may be used to evaluate
r design feasibility, compare design alternatives, identify potential failure areas, trade-off system design factors and
track reliability improvement. ReliaSoft's Lambda Predict software facilitates reliability prediction analysis based on the
major published standards, including MIL-HDBK-217, Bellcore/Telcordia and NSWC Mechanical.
r
Makes it easy to build the system configuration from scratch or by importing data from Bill of Materials
files, predefined part libraries or other external data sources.
y
Generates a complete array of calculated results (pi factors, failure rates, MTBFs, etc.) along with graphical
charts and customizable reports.
Offers a full set of supporting tools, including reliability allocation, derating analysis and the ability to
transfer and manage your data via flexible import/export or copy/paste.
Provides exclusive access to PartLibraries.org, which allows you to search and import parts data from
MIL-M-38510, EPRD-97 or NPRD-95 (free to all users) as well as more than 300,000 specific commercial
electronic components (yearly subscription required).
http://Predict.ReliaSoft.com
30 Reliability Edge
 For Your Information Bulletin Board
Depending on the software product and ReliaSofts Software Products
your particular needs, ReliaSoft offers a variety
Weibull++ Life Data Analysis
of license options, including single user
8.0.8 17-Dec-12 http://Weibull.ReliaSoft.com
licenses, network licenses, unlimited licenses
(for a site, division or corporation) and rentals. ALTA AcceleratedLife Test Data Analysis
With the release of the Synthesis Platform, 8.0.8 17-Dec-12 http://ALTA.ReliaSoft.com
ReliaSoft has introduced more intelligent and DOE++ Experiment Design and Analysis
flexible network license management options. 1.0.7 8-Feb-11 http://DOE.ReliaSoft.com
For example, standard network licenses are BlockSim System Modeling and Analysis
now self-managing with zero IT overhead, and 8.0.8 17-Dec-12 http://BlockSim.ReliaSoft.com
concurrent network licenses can (at your
RGA Reliability Growth Analysis
option) be either self-managing or managed
7.6.1 24-Feb-11 http://RGA.ReliaSoft.com
through a web interface that no longer requires
a network-installed component to monitor Xfmea Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
usage. You now also have the flexibility to 8.0.8 17-Dec-12 http://Xfmea.ReliaSoft.com
customize concurrent network licenses to your RCM++ Reliability Centered Maintenance
usage profiles. 8.0.8 17-Dec-12 http://RCM.ReliaSoft.com
We have also announced bundled software MPC MSG-3 Maintenance Program Creator
product suites that offer significant savings 3.0.17 24-Apr-12 http://MPC.ReliaSoft.com
over purchasing the same products
independently. For users primarily focused on RENO Probabilistic Event and Risk Analysis
product design and development, we offer the 1.0.11 5-Dec-08 http://RENO.ReliaSoft.com
DFR Essentials Suite (with Weibull++, ALTA Lambda Predict Standards Based Reliability Prediction
Standard, BlockSim Single-Thread and Xfmea). 3.1.1 28-Feb-11 http://Predict.ReliaSoft.com
For equipment operation and maintenance, we XFRACAS Web-based FRACAS
offer the RAM Essentials Suite (with Weibull++, 6.0.18 17-Feb-11 http://XFRACAS.ReliaSoft.com
BlockSim Single-Thread and
Orion eAPI Asset Performance Management
RCM++). Both suites include
1.0.5 25-Jul-12 http://Orion.ReliaSoft.com
intelligent integration
between tools, facilitated by Contact ReliaSoft's Corporate Headquarters
the Synthesis Platform. Phone: +1.520.886.0410 or 1.888.886.0410 (toll free in USA and Canada)
Fax: +1.520.886.0399 E-mail: Sales@ReliaSoft.com or Support@ReliaSoft.com
Doug Ogden
VP Customer Services For a directory of international offices, please visit http://Directory.ReliaSoft.com.

An MSG-3 compliant maintenance program creator

The MPC 3 software guides you through the entire process for aircraft systems
and powerplant analysis from defining the system configuration to generating
the final report document.
An intuitive hierarchical structure to manage the system configuration and functional failure analysis.
Built-in logic for identifying maintenance significant items (MSIs), failure effect categorization (FEC) and
maintenance task selection.
Centralized data storage allows multiple users and/or groups of users to work cooperatively.
Time-saving capabilities to reuse text descriptions and portions of existing analyses.
http://MPC.ReliaSoft.com

Volume 12, Issue 1 31

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Special Anniversary Edition

Volume 12, Issue 1