Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
. .. .
.
p1 + p2 + + pn = 1 (
(I
.
X& &P^@ V
' (, p ) ]& . p ( ai ) = pi E (1
: +( '
(
(2 card ( E ) E
. _X A
X& &P^@ V
' (, p ) (2
. b' . ; <& &DT& `&X8& 7W
X& a
A `N& Y
X& : #' ( )*& n ! $%& & n #
. ! n
p ( A) = p ( a1 ) + p ( a2 ) + p ( an ) ,?@ A = {a1 , a2 ,..., an } ,- &./ . n 0 ,- &./ n ! = 1.2.3.......n (
.
X& &P^@ V
' (, p ) %& (3 . 0! = 1 (
' A B = [ \ C_X B A (a .
(3
p( A B ) = p( A) + p( B ) : ' ,- &2& p 0 ,1 # ,- &./
p ( A B ) = p ( A) + p ( B ) p ( A B ) ' . C_X B A (b . 1 34 25 6'! n1 (
p ( A) = 1 p ( A) ' A B ^*& `N& A _X A (c . 2 34 25 6'! n2 (
' cd cd #AJ _&X1 An ..... A2 A1 (d
p ( A1 A2 .... An ) = p ( A1 ) + p ( A2 ) + + p ( An ) . p 34 25 6'! n p (
.
()
/0 1 - (4 . n1.n2 ......n p 7&28& 9% : 3; <& =>& ,?@
Y
XT& eJ 7T1 f
g , ' [\
X& &P^@ V
' (, p ) $
"#
(4
1
Y
XT& eJ h &DT& `&X8& fi ( . p n . A n
E = {a1 , a2 ,..., an }
card () E p ;& ;; 1 E n CD A p B ;;
(a
card ( A)
p ( A) = ' . _X A ( ( x1 , x2 ,...., xn ) : BD ; . E G#H A p B E;; F-
card ()
: #'( )*& Anp : BD $%& & 7 ;& 9% (b
,?@ Y
XT& eJ &DT& `&X8& f
g ,- &./ (a : 2("
n!
nombre de cas favorables Anp = = n (n 1)(n 2).......( n p + 1)
p( A) = ( n p )!
n facteurs
nombre de cas possibles
kq rs 6'>D 1 j k D l& m n; ,1 o 7W
XT& $
; p@ ,/ (b
E n CD A n B ;; F- E #' ;
(c
( e
#D D
& o W 7&-wq uO rs 6 >4 t uO rs ) : #'
- Ann = n( n 1)( n 2)......1 = n ! 7I' & 9% (d
7>*& Y
xD &DT& `&X8& Y
X&
X W1 Ey q uO D0& z- &./ (c E p ;& JK; 1 E n CD A p B JK;
(e
,?@ = {a1 , a2 ,..., an } ,- &./ : {& Y
x& |O& #
Y X {x1, x2 ,...., x p } : BD JK . E G#H A p , LM F-
p ( A) = p ( a1 ) + p ( a2 ) + p ( an ) : #'( )*& Cnp : BD $%& & 7JK& 9% (f
p facteurs
eJ h M& ~48& [\ t uO 6 }/ 1
4
& M : '3
A p
n! n ( n 1)( n 2).......( n p + 1)
$@ 34 Y
X& G^ M 34 Y
X& Y
XT& eJ h DJ& ~48& Y
XT& Cn =
p
= n
=
A `N& Y
X& E
X1
" 3 B G^ 34 V# Y AN&"
p ! p !( n p )! p( p 1)( p 2).....................1
%& (5
= {1, 2,3, 4,5,6} ' : 45
n p n 1
. &DT& `&X8& Y
X& E
(
C =C
n
p
n C =C
1
n n =n C = Cnn = 1 (a
0
n
p(2) = p(4) = p(6) = 2 x p(1) = p(3) = p(5) = x f^ . Cnp + Cnp +1 = Cnp++11
p(1) + p(2) + p(3) + p(4) + p(5) + p(6) = 1 ' n
( a + b) n = Cnk a n k bk . &N& OA& (b
1
,./ x = b' x + 2 x + x + 2 x + x + 2 x = 1 b' k =0
n
9 . 2 E P&M1 . A n
E (c
2 1
p(2) = p(4) = p(6) = p(1) = p(3) = p(5) = '
()
(II
9 9
+ = ,./ A = {3, 6} ' (
p( A) = p(3) + p(6) =
1 2 1 . *# (1
( 7T& , - ) = {a1 , a2 ,..., an }
Q& R
9 9 3
: 6
'
() (5
D ai A F- >D &./ Z6@ &./ V# W
X& @ 4 / Y 6
p ( A) 0 [\ C_X B A
0 pi 1 ( : [\ pi 66X
E ( X 2 ) = x12 p( X = x1 ) + x22 p( X = x2 ) + + xnn p( X = xn ) p( A B)
p ( B / A) = 6 A `N& ,1
# B `N& Y
X1
x 1 + x 2 + + x n
2
1
2
2
n
n
p ( A)
. /@
A
B
C)
(5 7 8
.
()
9% (6
:#' ( )*& (X ) BD $%& & X & u rO* $&>& )&T& p ( A) 0 [\ C_X B A
(X ) = V (X ) p( A B ) = p( A) p( B / A)
D#EF
(6 :
.
()
9% (7
: #' ( @*&F BD h <& && X & u& rO
# '0& &
,- &./ Z6@ &./ B ' , ; An ..... A2 A1 `&X8& ,/ Y 6 (a
(x ): F ( X ) = p( X < x)
n
. x F F ( x)
\
4 &./ F && X 4 / Y 6
. A =
i =1
i ( (i j ) : Ai Aj = (
. # FA& P^ & 7&& D x F- ZD' $%& & u& rO*& X #& 7W
XT& O (c
: X =9
8
GH&I J
K;
(a : ' B _X F. B ' , ; _&X1 An ..... A2 A1
. {3N } V# Y AN& b' X = 0 ( p ( B) = p ( A1 ) p ( B / A1 ) + + p ( An ) p ( B / An )
. {1B, 2 N } V# Y AN& b' X = 1 ( ";
<) (8
,- &./ Z6@ &./ ,I6
B A C_N& ,/ Y 6 (a
. {2 B,1N } V# Y AN& b' X = 2 (
p( A B ) = p( A). p( B )
. {3B} V# Y AN& b' X = 3 ( p( B / A) = p( B ) ,- &./ Z6@ &./ C#6
B A ,_N& , ' (b
X () = {0,1, 2,3} ,./ . 2& V# _' W X1 6 ,- &./ b' p ( A / B ) = p ( A)
. X '
(
LM (b . cd cd #6
2& n D R (c
p( A) = p X& 2& m 66 Y
X& _X A
C 1C 2 18 C43 4
p ( X = 1) = 3 3 4 = ( p( X = 0) = 3 = ( " 2& n YI2 Z ^D k k 6' A `N&": `N& B
C7 35 C7 35
3 2 1
p( B ) = Cnk ( p( A)) k (1 p( A)) n k : '
C 1 C C 12
p ( X = 3) = 3
= ( p( X = 2) = 3
= 4
( : #' f Y
X&
X FM1 JAD 2("
C3
7 35 C73 35
card ( A) C p F
& 2T& 1 & E
& ' ,- &./ (a
xi 0 1 2 3 p( A) = n
card ()
p ( X = xi ) 4 18 18 1 , ' 7& 2& k }/ D0& 9% J 7& 2& k D z- &./ (b
35 35 35 35 : BD / F . 76 >& 7 ;& Y
x& E0 X & @& @
4 4 18 1 49 . i 34 D0& 0 xi [X ( x1 , x2 ,...., xn )
E ( X ) = 0.
+ 1. + 2. + 3. = (c
35 35 35 35 35
.
6
=9
8
(III
4 4 18 1 75
E ( X 2 ) = 02. + 12. + 22. + 32. = ' (d
35 35 35 35 35 66X D / F- ZD' X >; F- & u rO
(1
75 49 2 224 . X () BD X rO*& %2K' <& 36#
V ( X ) = E ( X 2 ) ( E ( X )) 2 = ( ) = ,./
35 35 352 X () = {x1 , x2 ,...., xn } [\ & u rO X (2
(X ) = V (X ) =
224
' (e F p ( X = xi )
\
4 &./ X F
X& , 4 X 4 / F6
: #'
- YM m & 9% l# i {1, 2,..., n}
35
. x F F ( x ) E
. '0& & (f
xi x1 x2 .............. xn
F ( x) = p( X < x) = p () = 0 ,?@ x 0 ,- &./ (
4 p ( X = xi ) 1 2 .............. n
F ( x) = p ( X < x) = p ( X = 0) = ,?@ 0 < x 1 ,- &./ (
35 . 1#
4>
(3
,?@ 1 < x 2 ,- &./ ( E ( X ) BD $%& & X & u rO* p'& F8&
: #' ( )*&
22
F ( x ) = p ( X < x ) = p ( X = 0) + p ( X = 1) = E ( X ) = x1 p ( X = x1 ) + x2 p ( X = x2 ) + + xn p ( X = xn )
35
,?@ 2 < x 3 ,- &./ ( = x11 + x2 2 + + xn n
F ( x) = p ( X < x) = p ( X = 0) + p ( X = 1) + p ( X = 2) =
34 ? #98
(4
35 V ( X ) BD $%& & X & u rO* k'O*&
: #' ( )*&
,?@ 3 < x ,- &./ (
[X V ( X ) = E ( X ) ( E ( X ))
2 2
F ( x ) = p ( X < x ) = p ( X = 0) + p ( X = 1) + p ( X = 2) + p ( X = 3) = 1