Area of Vulnerability for Prediction of Voltage Sags
by an Analytical Method in Indian Distribution systems
A. K. Goswami, C. P. Gupta and G. K. Singh
Department of Electrical Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India-247667
Abstract This paper proposes an analytical method for
voltage sags prediction in distribution systems. The method is
based on the ZBus matrix of the distribution network, from which
one can immediately build a second matrix that can be called the
Voltage sags matrix as it compactly provides valuable
information about voltage sags throughout the distribution
systems. The paper also describes graphical ways to present the
effect of a fault on the distribution systems and the area where
faults cause severe sags on a given load: affected area and area of
vulnerability respectively. An Indian distribution system is used
to illustrate the ideas.
Index TermsArea of vulnerability, bus impedance matrix,
short-circuit analysis, voltage sag.
I. INTODUCTION
Voltage sag is one of the most important power quality
(PQ) problems, mainly caused by faults in a power system. A
voltage sag, also known as dip, is the decrease in rms voltage
between 0.1 and 0.9 p.u at the power frequency for duration
between 0.5 cycles to 1 min [1]---[4]. In comparison with
interruptions, voltage sags affect a larger number of customers
and for some customers voltage sags may cause extremely
serious problems [5][6]. Most of the equipment used in
modern industrial process automation, including process
controllers, programmable logic controllers, adjustable speed
drives and robotics are sensitive to voltage sags.
Malfunctioning or failure of this equipment can be caused by
voltage sags leading to production stops with significant
production and financial losses [7]-[8]. Therefore, sag analysis
of the transmission and distribution system should be carried
out to accurately assess the voltage sags.
Large power quality monitoring projects have been
performed or are running in a number of countries. An
excellent overview of some large North American surveys is
given in [9]-[11]. These surveys quantify the average severity
of voltage sags, but do not provide information about specific
sites. Such information however, is essential in order to decide
about the compatibility between the equipment and the supply
at such a site. Monitoring is clearly a direct way to get
information about system performance. However, an
important drawback is that very long monitoring periods
(typically several years) are needed if reasonable accuracy is
required [12-14].
978-1-4244-2746-8/08/$25.00 2008 IEEE
Hence, an alternative is to perform a stochastic prediction of
voltage sags for the site of interest, based on the network
model and the historical fault statistics data.
Several stochastic prediction methods have been proposed
in previous research [15-18]. The commonly used methods are
the method of critical distance and the method of fault
positions. The critical distance method is based on the
concept of potential divider, which is correctly and easily
applicable to a radial network. The extension of this method to
large meshed networks bas been discussed in [12-14],[17].
However, the applicability of the critical distance method to
meshed networks is limited to very preliminary results only.
The method of fault positions is usually adopted in large
meshed system [14, 17]. It requires modeling the electrical
network and simulating faults at different locations thoughout
the network. However, there are not clear and general rules to
determine the part of the network which must be analysed (i.e.
the part of the network where the occurrence of faults produce
significant voltage sags at the considered site) and the
positions and number of the faults to be simulated. To get a
good accuracy, a rather large number of fault positions have to
be simulated. This method allows simulation of symmetrical
faults using a single-phase model of the network, but, if
necessary, also unsymmetrical faults can be simulated through
a more complex, complete three-phase model.
Fault simulations allow drawing the area of vulnerability
of the network. Area of vulnerability is represented by
connecting all the fault positions inside the contour line for a
given voltage sag. For an example the 0.9 p.u. area of
vulnerability represents the part of the network where faults
produce voltages less or equal to 0.9 p.u. at the site of interest
and finally, getting the desired voltage sags prediction through
application of the components fault rates. An elegant,
analytical method to predict voltage sags caused by three-
phase faults on transmission networks has been developed in
[18]-[19]. Voltage sags at the given site are calculated without
performing fault simulations, through the bus impedance
matrix of the network (ZBus matrix) used in conventional fault
calculations.
Finally a proper method to predict voltage sags at a given
location should properly balance accuracy requirements with
speed and easiness of application, whereas looking for a high
accuracy will be meaningless. The concept of an area of
vulnerability is useful for the evaluation of the likelihood of
sensitive equipment being subjected to voltage lower then its
voltage threshold.
 II. THE PROPOSED METHOD
This paper proposes an analytical method for voltage sags
prediction in distribution systems. The proposed method starts
with the bus impedance matrix of the network currently used
for three-phase symmetrical short circuit calculations. Note
that, if the bus impedance matrix is not available, it can be
easily built up through the relevant well-known algorithm,
starting from the same single phase electrical model of the
network used to apply the fault positions method. Faults on
lines are more frequent than faults on buses. The voltage seen
at a desired bus m due to a fault at bus n can be expressed by
the general equation.
Vmn = Vpf (m) + Vmn (1)
Where, Vpf(m) is the pre-fault voltage at bus m and Vmn is
the voltage-change at bus m due to the fault at bus n. For a
three-phase fault the sag-matrix is given by [3]
VSM = Vpf Z [DiagZ]1 VpfT (2)
Where, VSM is the voltage sags matrix, Z is the impedance
matrix Vpf is the pre-fault voltage matrix and [DiagZ]1 is the
matrix formed by the inverse of the diagonal elements of the
impedance matrix. If the pre-fault load voltage is neglected,
then voltages before the fault can be considered 1 p.u. Under
this assumption, (2) can be written as (3) where ones is a
matrix full of ones and such that its dimension is equal to the
dimension of Z, this approximation is allowed because we use
the expressions for stochastic prediction.
VSM = ones Z.[DiagZ]1 ones (3)
The square N by N voltage sag matrix VSM contains the
voltage sags observed at each bus of the network caused by a
fault at each one of the buses. The during fault voltage at a
general bus j when a fault occurs at that bus is contained in the
diagonal of VSM and is zero for a solid three-phase fault. Off- Fig.1. Haridwar district distribution system
diagonal elements of VSM are the residual voltages at a general
33kV distribution substations named Sidcul-33, Ramnagar-33,
bus m caused by a fault at a general position n. Hence, column
Manglore-33, Laksar-33, Buputwala-33, Jwalapur-33 and
n contains the residual voltages at buses 1, 2n, N during
Bhagwanpur-33.
the fault at bus n. This means that the effect in terms of
The magnitude of residual voltage at each bus and for
voltage sags of a fault at a given bus of the system is contained
each fault position was calculated and saved in the sag matrix
in columns of the voltage sags matrix. This information can be
in Table I. It shows the residual voltages at some selected
graphically presented on the one-line diagram of the power
observation buses (2, 3, 11, 15, 16, 17, 19, 22, 25, 26, 27, 28
system and it is called affected area.
and 29) for faults at lines and buses. Faults in substations are
The voltage sag matrix can also be read by rows. A given
in the top part of the Table I whereas faults in the middle of
row m identifies that bus in the system and the potential
some lines are in the bottom part of the table. Table I is a part
voltage sags to which the load connected at this bus is exposed
of the voltage-sag matrix presented to explain the analysis
due to faults in the system. This information can also be
done; a small part of this large table has been reproduced in
presented in a graphical way on the one-line diagram and is
Table 1 (Including the whole table in this paper would require
called area of vulnerability.
about 10 pages.) and it has been transposed to present the
results in a more suitable manner. From the table it is easy to
III. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
note that substations near to the fault experience severe sags,
The study was performed on Haridwar district distribution i.e. less residual voltage. Consider substation 29 and its
system of Uttarakhand state, India [20]. The distribution residual voltages in the last column of Table 1.When a fault
system has 29 buses, 28 lines and 11 transformers, shown in occur at bus 3 (far from 29), the voltage at bus 29 only drops
Fig. 1 where the 33kV distribution buses are considered. The 8% with respect to the pre-fault voltage. However, when the
Haridwar district has two 220kV substations named Roorkee- fault occurs at bus 16 the voltage drops 79% with respect to
220 and Sidcul-220, seven 132kV substations named the pre- fault voltage. Also faults on the lines connecting
Ramnagar, Bhupatwala, Manglore, Jwalapur, Sidcul-132, substation 29 cause severe sags at this bus.
Laksar and Bhagwanpur. The distribution system has seven
 Table I Voltage sags matrix due to three-phase fault.

Sub Station
2 3 11 15 16 17 19 22 25 26 27 28 29
/Fault position
3 0.51 0.0 0.68 0.87 0.80 0.34 0.99 0.80 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.92
11 0.85 0.36 0.0 0.61 0.37 0.06 0.98 0.35 0.87 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.83
15 0.85 0.35 0.04 0.0 0.39 0.08 0.98 0.37 0.85 0.88 0.87 0.79 0.68
16 0.85 0.36 0.01 0.61 0.0 0.07 0.98 0.35 0.84 0.90 0.89 0.86 0.79
17 0.85 0.33 0.51 0.81 0.70 0.0 0.98 0.69 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.86
19 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.0 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.95
22 0.85 0.36 0.01 0.61 0.37 0.06 0.98 0.0 0.87 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.65
25 0.78 0.33 0.32 0.69 0.43 0.18 0.99 0.56 0.0 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.72
26 0.52 0.38 0.58 0.79 0.71 0.38 0.99 0.73 0.74 0.0 0.74 0.74 0.72
27 0.75 0.22 0.53 0.77 0.68 0.27 0.99 0.69 0.74 0.74 0.0 0.74 0.74
28 0.78 0.33 0.33 0.50 0.55 0.18 0.99 0.56 0.72 0.73 0.72 0.0 0.74
29 0.98 0.91 0.92 0.97 0.95 0.89 0.99 0.94 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.0
50%line3_4 0.76 0.05 0.68 0.87 0.80 0.34 0.99 0.80 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.92
50%line3_14 0.81 0.16 0.68 0.87 0.80 0.34 0.99 0.80 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.92
50%line5_13 0.93 0.72 0.74 0.90 0.84 0.67 0.99 0.83 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96
50%line12_23 0.85 0.36 0.08 0.61 0.37 0.06 0.98 0.17 0.95 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.87
50%line22_26 0.77 0.33 0.39 0.70 0.53 0.21 0.99 0.60 0.32 0.70 0.69 0.69 0.69
50%line22_29 0.77 0.33 0.39 0.61 0.58 0.21 0.99 0.60 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.32 0.68
50%line23_24 0.85 0.36 0.05 0.61 0.37 0.06 0.98 0.15 0.86 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.87

0 Z1,2 Z 1,13 . Z1, 29

1 1 1
Z2,2 .. Z 13,13 . Z 29, 29
1 Z2,1
Z1,1 .. .
0
1
Z 2,13 Z 2, 29
. 1
. . Z 13,13
Z 29, 29
. 0 .
. .
. .
Z Z13,2
VSM = 1 13,1 1 .. . . (4)
Z2,2 0
Z1,1 Z13, 29
. . 1
.
. . 0 Z 29, 29
. .
. . . .
.
. . .
Z29,1 Z29,2
1 1 .. Z 29 ,13 . 0
Z1,1 Z2,2 1
Z 13,13 .
network affected by a fault at bus 14 and is called affected
A. Affected area
area. Affected area is the region of the network where the
Consider the distribution system of Haridwar District and residual voltage during a fault at a given point is less than a
its impedance matrix. The power system contains 29 buses threshold value. In Fig. 2 affected area is presented for a three-
plus the reference node that is chosen to be the common phase fault at bus 14. The thick line encloses the load buses
generator node. Applying equation 1 we get the during fault presenting less residual voltage less than a threshold value of
voltages for the 29 buses due to faults at each one of the 29 0.7 p. u. Similarly, in Fig. 3 the affected area contains the load
buses. Equation (4) shows the resulting voltage sag matrix. It buses that will experience a residual voltage less than 0.9 p. u
can be seen that column 14 of the sag matrix contains the during the occurrence of a fault at bus 14. The affected area
during fault voltages at each one of the 29 buses when a three- presented in Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 has been built considering
phase fault occurs at bus 14. Column 14 of the voltage sag potential three-phase faults at buses of the system and only the
matrix contains the information to identify the area of the
original impedance matrix of positive-sequence of the system
has been used. Faults on lines are more frequent than fault at
buses of the system, but the latter cause in general more severe
sags. In practice, symmetrical and unsymmetrical faults should
be analysed and both faults along the lines and at buses of the
system should be considered.
Fig. 2.Affected area for bus 14, considering threshold voltage 0.7 p.u. due to
LLLF
Fig. 3 Affected area for bus 14, considering threshold voltage 0.9 p.u. due to
LLLF
B. Area of Vulnerability
The exposed area or area of vulnerability is contained in
the rows of the voltage-sag matrix and can be graphically
presented on the one line diagram. Exposed area is the region
of the network that encloses buses and line segments where
the occurrence of faults will lead to voltage sags more severe
than a given value at the observation bus. Fig. 4 presents the
area of vulnerability for bus 22. The 0.5 p.u. area of
vulnerability for bus 22 contains buses 1,
2,3,4,10,11,13,15,16,17,22 and 23 and lines connecting them
indicating that faults at these buses and lines will cause less
residual voltage than 0.5 p.u. for bus 22. Fig. 5 presents the
area of vulnerability for bus 22. The 0.7 p.u. exposed area of
bus 22 contains buses 6, 8,9,18,19,20,24,25,26,27,28 and 29
and lines connecting them indicating that faults at these buses
and lines will cause less residual voltage than 0.7 p.u. for bus
22. Similarly, in Fig. 6 the 0.9 p.u. exposed area of bus 22
contains all the buses and line segments where faults will
cause less residual voltage than 0.9 p.u. Fig. 6 suggests that
the exposed area is the closed region of the network
containing buses and the lines connecting them. However, this
is not necessarily the case because faults on the lines might
cause voltage sags less severe than the threshold that defines
the area of vulnerability. In other words, part of the line may
be actually outside the area of vulnerability, meaning that
faults in this part of the line will lead to sags less severe than
the magnitude under consideration.
To clarify, suppose that bus 5 is fed through a relatively
long double circuit line from bus 6. In such a case, faults on
any of the lines occurring far from the buses 5 or 6 will be
seen as shallow voltage sags at bus 5. However, faults near
bus 5 or bus 6 will be seen as severe sags at bus 5. The
exposed area for bus 5 (severe sags) would be formed by bus
5, segments of the lines connecting this bus, bus 6 and
segments of the lines connecting bus 6. The central part of the
lines between buses 5 and 6 might be outside of the exposed
area. The exposed area shown in Fig. 4 has been built using
the original bus impedance matrix of the system, however a
more precise description of the exposed areas needs to take
into account that faults occur on lines. In order to simulate
faults on lines additional fictitious nodes are needed along the
lines. Those fictitious nodes are called fault positions. The
more fault positions are used to calculate the exposed areas the
more precise is the description of these areas and the better the
stochastic assessment, but also the larger the computational
effort needed to perform the calculation. Consider the 0.5 p.u.
exposed area corresponding to bus 22 in Fig. 4. The contour
that defines the border of this area crosses the line between
bus 27 and bus 22. In other words, a fault at bus 27 causes a
residual voltage at bus 22 above 0.5 p.u. whereas a fault at bus
22 leads to a residual voltage below 0.5 p.u. at bus 22. To
better define the contour, the residual voltage at bus 22 should
be determined for faults at different locations on the line
between bus 27 and bus 22. In addition, fault positions should
be also considered along the other lines connecting bus 22.
Fig. 4 Area of vulnerability for bus 22, considering threshold voltage 0.5 p.u.
due to LLLF
Fig. 5 Area of vulnerability for bus 22, considering threshold voltage 0.7 p.u.
due to LLLF
Fig. 6 Area of vulnerability for bus 22, considering threshold voltage 0.9 p.u.
due to LLLF
IV. CONCLUSION
An analytical method for voltage sags prediction in
distribution networks is proposed. The method is based on
the use of the bus impedance matrix, from which a second
matrix, the voltage sags matrix, can be immediately
constructed with minimal effort.
The proposed method has definite advantages over the
different existing methods. It is similar but considerably
simpler than the analytical method and has significant
advantages, pointed out in the paper through the presentation
of result in different ways, including a so-called affected area
showing the variation of the sag frequency through-out the
network over the method of the fault positions. These
advantages can be summarized as: much less work entailed
more accurate drawing of the area of vulnerability, more
rational approach. The concept of an area of vulnerability is
useful for the evaluation of the likelihood of sensitive
equipment being subjected to voltage lower than its voltage
threshold and installing mitigation devices. The voltage
threshold is defined as the minimum voltage magnitude a
piece of equipment can withstand without misoperation or
failure. The main limit of the method is that, only three phase
(symmetrical) faults are concerned. However, it must be
pointed out that a more accurate sags prediction performed
through the consideration of unsymmetrical faults, would
require the full three-phase model of the network and the
knowledge of the relevant fault rates for all fault types and all
network components, that are seldom available.
 ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to acknowledge the help provided
by the technical members of Uttarakhand Power Corporation
Limited. The authors sincerely thank the many UPCL
personnel for providing the technical data for this work.
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A. K. Goswami (S08) received the B. Tech. degree
from National Institute of Technology, Kurukshetra,
India, in 1997, the M.E. degree from Birla Institute of
Technology, Mesra, Ranchi, India in 2005. He is
currently pursuing the Ph.D.degree at Indian Institute
of Technology, Rorkee, India, all are in Electrical
Engineering.
He worked with Hydro Electric Power Project for
nearly six years and from 2005 to 2006 he was a Sr. Lecturer in the
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, National Institute of
Science and Technology, Berhampur, India. His research interest includes
power system reliability, digital signal processing and voltage sag analysis.
C. P. Gupta (M03) received the B.E. degree from
Malaviya Regional Engineering College, Jaipur, India,
in 1987, the M.E. degree from the University of
Roorkee, India, in 1990, and the Ph.D. degree from the
Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, India, in 2001.
Currently, he is Assistant Professor in the Department
of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of
Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India. From 2001 to
2004, he was a Research Associate and, in 2005, he was an Academic Visitor
in the School of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of
Manchester (formerly the University of Manchester Institute of Science and
Technology), Manchester, U.K. his research interests include power quality,
voltage instability, and power system dynamics.
G. K. Singh received the B.Tech. degree from G. B.
Pant University of Agriculture and Technology,
Pantnagar, India, in 1981, and the Ph.D. degree from
Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India, in 1991,
both in electrical engineering. He worked in industry
for nearly five and a half years. In 1991, he joined
M.N. R. Engineering College, Allahabad, India, as a
Lecturer.In 1996, he moved to the University of
Roorkee, Roorkee, India.
Currently, he is a Professor in the Electrical Engineering Department,
Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India. He has been involved in
design and analysis of electrical machines in general and high-phase-order ac
machines in particular and power system harmonics and power quality. He has
coordinated a number of research projects sponsored by the CSIR and UGC,
Government of India. He has served as a Visiting Associate Professor in the
Department of Electrical Engineering, Pohang University of Science and
Technology (POSTECH), Pohang, Korea, and as Visiting Professor in the
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Middle East Technical
University, Ankara, Turkey. Prof. Singh received the Pt. Madan Mohan
Malaviya Memorial Medal and the Certificate of Merit Award 20012002 of
The Institution of Engineers (India).