Commodity Research Desk

Metals Weekly A Weekly Report on Base Metals 3 April 2017

Base Metals Technical Recommendation

Commodity Contract S2 S1 CLOSE*NOTE:R1

The calls R2
shown above areToday's
purely WEEKLY Recommendations.
recommendation

Base Metals
Copper LME 3M Fwd 5626 5737 5861 5968 6066 Trading range 5700-5950

Copper MCX Apr-17 367.1 373.5 380.8 387.4 393.3 Trading range 574 - 590
PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT
Lead LME 3M Fwd 2268 2299 2334 2359 2383 Trading Range 2260-2360

Lead MCX Mar-17 145.2 148.0 151.00 154.6 157.8 Trading Range 145-155

Zinc LME 3M Fwd 2685 2725 2769 2835 2894 Sell at 2790-2800 TP 2700 SL 2850
Ijukjkjklj
Zinc MCX Mar-17 174.1 176.4 178.85 182.9 186.6 Sell at 183.50-184 TP 174 SL 188

Nickel LME 3M Fwd 9622 9809 10020 10171 10308 Trading Range 9630 - 10310

Nickel MCX Mar-17 632.7 641.4 651.0 658.8 665.9 Trading Range 635 - 666

Aluminum LME 3M Fwd 1820 1850 1961 1982 2001 Buy at 1910-1915 TP 2000 SL 1870

Aluminum MCX Mar-17 123.9 125.3 126.8 128.0 129.1 Buy at 125-125.50 TP 130 SL 123.50

ALUMINUM

On weekly basis, gains at LME were around 1.2% and MCX recorded losses by 0.04%.
As per the LME weekly data, stocks decreased by 3.05% on weekly basis whereas in Shanghai Warehouse stocks
decreased by 0.7% Separately, Aluminum prices made high of $1,981 per metric ton previous week.
Japanese Aluminum buyers have agreed to pay producers a premium of $128 per tonne for shipments in the April-
June quarter, reflecting higher overseas spot premiums.
Malaysia extended a moratorium on bauxite mining by a further three months to June 30, looking to clear remaining
stockpiles of the Aluminum raw material as it presses the industry to halt damage to the environment.

For this week we recommend buying in Aluminum

A comprehensive weekly onin-nmims001

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 Metals
E= Insight

COPPER: NICKEL:
Copper prices decreased by 0.6% at LME and
Nickel prices showed mixed movement edging higher
remained flat in MCX on weekly basis.
by 1.6 percent at LME whereas went down in MCX by
If the real estate and construction sector within China
0.1% amid Indonesia has indicated it may relax its ban
remains strong, which early indicators suggest, copper
on nickel ore exports, which took effect 2014, while
stands to benefit, especially as supply tightens. Copper
the Philippines said it may shut most of its nickel
is used in electrical wiring, cables and plumbing
mines.
during building completion and in home appliances.
Cash LME nickel fell to a $67 discount against the
China's top copper smelters have agreed to an 11
three month nickel contract, the steepest discount
percent cut in second-quarter treatment and refining
since Jan 2015, reflecting a market in ample supply.
fees, after disruptions at the world's two biggest
On a global basis, stainless steel accounts for around
copper mines curbed the global supply of raw
two-thirds of nickel demand. As per World Steel
material.
Association, Crude steel output from China, the
Total output losses including from a long ramp up
world's top producer and consumer of the alloy, rose
period to restore full production could amount to
to 61.2 million tonnes, up 4.6 percent from February
230,000 tonnes, which should help keep prices around
2016.
$5,950 a tonne in the second quarter.
LME nickel was on track to fall more than 8 % for the
Workers at Escondida, Cerro Verde, resumed work on
month and the biggest loss since loss since 11% drop
Friday after voting to end a nearly three-week strike
in December, on prospects of rising Indonesian
that had halved output.
supply.
Chinese manufacturing PMI was released which
Nickel prices were volatile in 2016, soaring to $11,575
showed unexpected expansion at the fastest pace in
a metric ton in November after touching a 13-year low
nearly 5 years in March, adding to evidence that the
of $7,700 in February. Nickel is the worst-performing
world's second-largest economy has gained
base metal in 2017, down about 2%.
momentum early this year.
For the week, we recommend range bound trade in Copper
For the week, we recommend range bound trade in Nickel
Technical Chart:
Technical Chart:

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 Metals
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Lead & Zinc:

Lead prices on Monday witness mixed movement in prices & was trading low at LME whereas decreased in MCX
around 0.50%.
On weekly basis, Lead posted gains by 0.6% at LME and at MCX it went down by 2.3%.
After a second major raid on LME lead stocks last week, only 77,925 tonnes of that headline figure are in the form of
"live" warrants, available for contract settlement. All the rest of it, 112,275 tonnes, or 59 percent of the total, were
in the form of cancelled warrants, available for physical load-out but not for LME trading purposes.
Imports of lead concentrate continued declining over the first two months of the year, attesting to those stresses in
the raw materials part of the supply chain.
For the week, we recommend range bound trade in Lead

Zinc prices on weekly basis posted losses by 2.1% in LME & went down in MCX with 1.8%.
At LME, Stocks increased by 1.05% on weekly basis and at Shanghai Warehouse stocks increased by 1.75% on
weekly basis.
Orders to withdraw zinc from LME-monitored warehouses jumped 12 percent to the highest in two years, while
inventories fell to the lowest since July 2009.
A protest by Chinese zinc smelters at high treatment charges (TCs) that will lead to a temporary dip in metal output
means the effects of catastrophic flooding in Peru are unlikely to affect the spot concentrate market in the short
term.
Bloomberg Intelligence's model shows a base-case deficit of 1 million metric tons through 2018, assuming 2%
annual demand growth and the continuation of announced mine projects. The model also assumes shuttered zinc
mines don't restart, though higher prices may bring the metal back onto the market.

For the week, we recommend selling in Zinc

Mail us at Commodity@karvy.com
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 Metals
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Weekly Price performance: Base metals
Close Volume % Open OI
Exchange Commodity Open High Low Close % Change Volume Change Interest % Change
Aluminium 1934 1981 1915 1962.5 1.2% 159,778 -26.5% 2,603 -36.1%
LME 3-mth Copper 5800 5985 5671 5837.5 0.6% 210,875 7.3% 3,646 -17.5%
Forward Lead 2348 2357 2275 2340 -0.6% 40,946 -42.7% 1,313 -44.2%
(USD/tons) Nickel 9840 10145 9655 10025 1.6% 75,209 -9.7% 2,598 15.6%
Zinc 2830.5 2888.5 2739 2771 -2.1% 134,624 -13.6% 1,666 -42.3%

Aluminium 125.8 127.75 124 126.1 -0.04% 21,805 -25.7% 435 -72.1%
Copper 378.9 388.9 370.15 380.75 0% 189,293 22.2% 13,313 3.2%
MCX Futures
Lead 152.05 152.2 147.8 149.7 -2.3% 60,081 -31.8% 703 -61.6%
(Rs/Kg)
Nickel 641.6 652.7 625.6 643.4 -0.1% 124,377 -10.2% 12,360 -56.5%
Zinc 182.8 185.9 177.15 181 -1.8% 86,670 -18.1% 2,197 -46.6%

Shanghai Market Performance

3/23/2017 3/30/2017
SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes) till Wednesday
Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change
Copper 312584 307376 -5208 -1.67%
Zinc 326597 332326 5729 1.75%
Aluminium 184376 183086 -1290 -0.70%
COMEX MARKET PERFORMANCE
PX_LAST 3/24/2017 3/31/2017
COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)
Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change
Copper 139818 143375 3557 2.54%

INVENTORY DETAILS
3/23/2017 3/30/2017
SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes) till Wednesday
Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change
Copper 312584 307376 -5208 -1.67%
Zinc 326597 332326 5729 1.75%
Aluminium 184376 183086 -1290 -0.70%

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change
Copper 312525 291175 -21350 -6.83%
Zinc 375825 371875 -3950 -1.05%
Aluminium 1945800 1886400 -59400 -3.05%
Lead 190200 187175 -3025 -1.59%
Nickel 382266 377514 -4752 -1.24%
Click here for weekly economic events

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 Metals
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