Sharekhan

Eagle Eye Currencies

Sharekhan January 03, 2017

USDINR: Potential to slide MACD (0.07935)

In June, USDINR had faced resistance near the 78.6% 0

retracement of the February-March fall. After that it USDINR - INDIAN RUPEE (67.9447, 68.2250, 67.8999, 68.1389, +0.19440)
69.7
69.6

entered a correction mode. During September-October, 69.5

69.4
69.3

the currency pair was in a consolidation phase, which 69.2

69.1
69.0

broke out on the upside. In November, it rallied towards 100.0% 0.0% 68.9
68.8
68.7

the high of Rs68.89. Near the high, the bears intervened 68.6
68.5
68.4

to restrict further upside. Consequently, it entered a 78.6%

23.6%
68.3
68.2
68.1

correction mode. USDINR has retraced nearly 61.8% of 61.8%

38.2%
68.0
67.9
67.8

the previous rise and can slide further till Rs66.80. On 50.0%
67.7
67.6
67.5
50.0%

the other hand, Rs68.90 will act as a key resistance on a 61.8%

67.4
67.3
67.2

closing basis.
38.2% 67.1
67.0
66.9
78.6% 66.8
23.6% 66.7
66.6
66.5

View Reversal Target 66.4

66.3
100.0% 66.2

Down Rs68.90 Rs66.80

66.1
0.0% 66.0
65.9
65.8
65.7
65.6
65.5
February March April May June July August September October November December 2017 February

GBPINR: Heading south KST (-1.21828) 10

5
0

GBPINR has been in a downtrend from a medium-term GBPINR (83.8710, 83.9910, 83.5850, 83.6400, -0.17600)
-5

perspective. On the way down, the currency pair cracked

110

0.0%

the lower channel line and reached near the 61.8% 105

retracement of the previous multi-year rally. Near the 100

key Fibonacci level, the bulls rushed in, resulting in a

23.6%

95

short-term bounce. However, the rebound looks over 38.2%

90

at Rs86.89, as GBPINR has started sliding again from

50.0%

there. Key levels to watch on the way down will be Rs82- 85

Rs80.74. On the other hand, Rs84.90 will act as a key 61.8%

80

resistance on a closing basis.

75

78.6%

View Reversal Target 70

Down Rs84.90 Rs82-Rs80.74

65
100.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Eagle Eye Currencies 1 January 03, 2017 For Private Circulation only
Sharekhan Eagle Eye Currencies

EURINR: On a downward trajectory

KST (-0.08300) 3

In mid-August, EURINR had faced resistance near a

2
1
0
-1

falling trendline from the previous highs and had started

-2

EURINR (71.5390, 71.5900, 71.1750, 71.2530, -0.17700)

78.5

tumbling. Structurally, it formed a multi-week triangular 78.0

and broke out on the downside in the beginning of October.

77.5

77.0

On the way down, it broke multiple supports. In terms of 76.5

76.0

wave structure, it is forming a complex correction, which 75.5

is unfolding in a channelised manner. Overall, EURINR

75.0

74.5

can slide till Rs69.30, ie the lower end of the broader 74.0

73.5

channel. On the flip side, the swing high of Rs72.35 will 73.0

act as a crucial resistance on a closing basis. 72.5

72.0

71.5

View Reversal Target

71.0

70.5

Down Rs72.35 Rs69.30 70.0

69.5

69.0

68.5

November 2016 February March April May June July August September November December 2017 February

JPYINR: Tumbling down KST (-0.40287)

5

In the beginning of October, JPYINR formed a triangular 0

pattern and broke out on the downside. It also broke a JPYINR (58.0328, 58.2200, 57.8699, 57.9708, -0.14120) 70.0
69.5
69.0

rising trendline along with the price pattern. It was then 0.0%
68.5
68.0
67.5

trading in a downward sloping channel. In the beginning

67.0
66.5
66.0
65.5

of November, it broke the lower end of the channel and 23.6%

65.0
64.5
64.0

continued to tumble, breaking even the lower end of the

63.5
63.0
62.5
62.0

larger channel. Consequently, JPYINR reached the 61.8% 38.2% 61.5

61.0
60.5

retracement mark. Once the support zone of Rs57.35-

60.0
50.0% 59.5
59.0

Rs57.15 is breached, JPYINR can fall till Rs56.30. On

58.5
58.0
61.8% 57.5

the other hand, Rs59.30 will act as a key resistance on a

57.0
56.5
56.0

closing basis.
55.5
55.0
54.5
54.0
53.5
53.0
52.5

View Reversal Target 52.0

51.5
51.0

Down Rs59.30 Rs56.30 100.0%

50.5
50.0
49.5

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017

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