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TNO Safety software

RISKCURVES
Version 10

Quick Start Guide and User Manual

TNO Built Environment & Geosciences


Department of Industrial and External Safety
Princetonlaan 6
PO. 80015
NL-3508 TA Utrecht, the Netherlands
Fax. +31 88 86 62050
Email:helpdesk.riskcurves@tno.nl

2016 TNO
RISKCURVES

2016 TNO
All rights reserved. No parts of this work may be reproduced in any form or by any means - graphic, electronic, or
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While every precaution has been taken in the preparation of this document, the publisher and the author assume no
responsibility for errors or omissions, or for damages resulting from the use of information contained in this
document or from the use of programs and source code that may accompany it. In no event shall the publisher and
the author be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damage caused or alleged to have been caused
directly or indirectly by this document.
Contents 3

Table of Contents
Foreword 0

Chapter I Introduction 13
1 TNO software
...................................................................................................................................
products 13
2 Installation
................................................................................................................................... 14
System requirem..........................................................................................................................................................
ents 14
The protection ..........................................................................................................................................................
key 14
Installation and
..........................................................................................................................................................
de-installation 15
Upgrading from ..........................................................................................................................................................
version 9 15
Upgrading from ..........................................................................................................................................................
older versions 17
3 What ...................................................................................................................................
is RISKCURVES 20
Which task can..........................................................................................................................................................
RISKCURVES perform 20
What is the required
..........................................................................................................................................................
input 21
What kind of results
..........................................................................................................................................................
are obtained? 21
4 What's
...................................................................................................................................
new in version 10 29
Chem ical database
..........................................................................................................................................................
structure 30
Mixtures .......................................................................................................................................................... 33
Limitations .........................................................................................................................................................
for mixtures 33
Calculation.........................................................................................................................................................
of properties of mixtures 34
Evaluating .........................................................................................................................................................
mixture properties 35
Usage of Projection
..........................................................................................................................................................
system s 37
New and adapted..........................................................................................................................................................
m odels 40
Support for tile
..........................................................................................................................................................
servers 41

Chapter II Quick Start Guide 43


1 The Graphical
...................................................................................................................................
User Interface 43
2 The concepts
...................................................................................................................................
behind the tree nodes 44
3 Quick...................................................................................................................................
start: Create a new project 54
1 Add a background
..........................................................................................................................................................
m ap 55
2 Verify calculation
..........................................................................................................................................................
settings 59
3 Define m eteorological
..........................................................................................................................................................
conditions 60
4 Define population
..........................................................................................................................................................
distribution 61
5 Define Stationary
..........................................................................................................................................................
or Transport equipm ent locations 67
6 Add Scenarios
..........................................................................................................................................................
to equipm ent location 68
7 Entering consequence
..........................................................................................................................................................
m odel set data 70
8 Perform ing ..........................................................................................................................................................
the risk calculation 73
9 Evaluate results
..........................................................................................................................................................
of the calculation 73
10 The use of ..........................................................................................................................................................
Cum ulation sets 74
11 The use of ..........................................................................................................................................................
Com parison sets 75
12 The use of ..........................................................................................................................................................
Analysis points 76

Chapter III The user interface in detail 79


1 Menu...................................................................................................................................
bar 80
2 Toolbar
................................................................................................................................... 81
3 Project
...................................................................................................................................
tree 83
4 CalculationSet
...................................................................................................................................
definition 85
5 Equipment
...................................................................................................................................
definition 86
6 Scenario
...................................................................................................................................
definition 87

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7 Analysis
...................................................................................................................................
points 90
8 Result...................................................................................................................................
panel tabs 91
9 Graph...................................................................................................................................
display panel 92
Presenting Model
..........................................................................................................................................................
Results 93
Base functionality
..........................................................................................................................................................
graphs 93
10 (Autohide)
...................................................................................................................................
Scenario selection panel 96
11 Command
...................................................................................................................................
button panel 97
12 Node ...................................................................................................................................
input panel 98
13 Graph...................................................................................................................................
selection box 99
14 Profile
...................................................................................................................................
expert button 100
15 Map...................................................................................................................................
display panel 101
Presenting geographic
..........................................................................................................................................................
calculation results 103
Positioning equipm
..........................................................................................................................................................
ent 106
Map functionality
.......................................................................................................................................................... 106
Map legend options
.......................................................................................................................................................... 108
16 Report
...................................................................................................................................
panel 112
17 Model
...................................................................................................................................
log panel 114
18 Legend
...................................................................................................................................
panel 116

Chapter IV Advanced features 119


1 Options
................................................................................................................................... 119
2 Display
...................................................................................................................................
units 121
3 Presentation
...................................................................................................................................
settings 123
4 Expert
...................................................................................................................................
Parameter settings 125
5 Meteorological
...................................................................................................................................
distribution 127
6 Vulnerability
...................................................................................................................................
settings 128
7 Environment
...................................................................................................................................
settings 129
8 Accuracy
...................................................................................................................................
settings 130
9 Chemical
...................................................................................................................................
Databases 131
Chem ical database
..........................................................................................................................................................
m anager 132
Chem ical databases
..........................................................................................................................................................
sources 133
Selecting a chem
..........................................................................................................................................................
ical from the database 135
View ing/Editing
..........................................................................................................................................................
properties of chem icals 137
Creating chem..........................................................................................................................................................
ical m ixtures 142
Converting Vs9
..........................................................................................................................................................
user chem icals 145
10 Mass...................................................................................................................................
and volume calculator 146
11 Mortality/probit
...................................................................................................................................
calculator 147
12 Geo-referencing
...................................................................................................................................
images 147
13 Risk ...................................................................................................................................
transects 151
14 Exporting
...................................................................................................................................
consequence data 152

Chapter V Technical backgrounds 155


1 QRA...................................................................................................................................
Definitions 155
Calculation Set
.......................................................................................................................................................... 155
Calculation Settings
.......................................................................................................................................................... 155
Accuracy param
..........................................................................................................................................................
eters 156
Vulnerability..........................................................................................................................................................
param eters 158
Environm ent..........................................................................................................................................................
param eters 162

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Contents 5

Meteorological
..........................................................................................................................................................
data 163
Population .......................................................................................................................................................... 164
Equipm ent .......................................................................................................................................................... 165
Scenario .......................................................................................................................................................... 166
Modelset .......................................................................................................................................................... 168
Cum ulation sets
.......................................................................................................................................................... 168
Com parison..........................................................................................................................................................
sets 169
Analysis points
.......................................................................................................................................................... 170
Consequence ..........................................................................................................................................................
Risk 172
Dam age definition
.......................................................................................................................................................... 173
Consequence ..........................................................................................................................................................
Risk levels 176
Societal Risk.......................................................................................................................................................... 178
Individual Risk
.......................................................................................................................................................... 178
Iso Risk Contours
.......................................................................................................................................................... 178
Societal Risk..........................................................................................................................................................
(FN) Curve 180
Project file .......................................................................................................................................................... 181
SR Maps .......................................................................................................................................................... 181
2 The ...................................................................................................................................
consequence models within a modelset 186
Gas release .......................................................................................................................................................... 187
Gas release
.........................................................................................................................................................
from a vessel or pipe 187
Gas release
.........................................................................................................................................................
from a long pipeline 188
Liquefied gas..........................................................................................................................................................
release 189
DIERS top.........................................................................................................................................................
venting (vessel only) 190
Vapour release
.........................................................................................................................................................
from vessel or pipe 190
Pressurized
.........................................................................................................................................................
liquefied gas release from vessel or pipe 191
Spray release
.........................................................................................................................................................
of pressurized liquefied gas from vessel or pipe 192
Instantaneous
.........................................................................................................................................................
flashing liquid release 194
Liquefied .........................................................................................................................................................
gas from long pipeline 195
Liquid release
.......................................................................................................................................................... 195
Pool evaporation
.......................................................................................................................................................... 197
Atm ospheric..........................................................................................................................................................
dispersion 199
3 Combined
...................................................................................................................................
models 201
4 Cumulation
...................................................................................................................................
of sources 203
5 Model
...................................................................................................................................
input parameters 206
Absorption speed
.......................................................................................................................................................... 207
Absorption surface
.......................................................................................................................................................... 207
Adiabatic vapour
..........................................................................................................................................................
flash fraction 207
Air relative hum
..........................................................................................................................................................
idity 207
Alw ays use fast
..........................................................................................................................................................
dispersion m odel 207
Am bient pressure
.......................................................................................................................................................... 208
Am bient relative
..........................................................................................................................................................
hum idity 208
Am bient tem..........................................................................................................................................................
perature 208
Am ount of CO2..........................................................................................................................................................
in atm osphere 208
Angle betw een..........................................................................................................................................................
hole and flam e axis (?) 208
at distance .......................................................................................................................................................... 209
at distance to..........................................................................................................................................................
the source 209
at tim e t .......................................................................................................................................................... 209
Atm ospheric..........................................................................................................................................................
pressure 210
Atm ospheric..........................................................................................................................................................
transm issivity 210
Average m ass ..........................................................................................................................................................
flow rate 210
Average release
..........................................................................................................................................................
rate (1st 20%) 210
Average release
..........................................................................................................................................................
rate (2nd 20%) 210
Axial distance..........................................................................................................................................................
from release (Sd) 211
Based upon tim..........................................................................................................................................................
e 211
Blast w ave shape
..........................................................................................................................................................
at Xd 212
BLEVE calculation
..........................................................................................................................................................
type 212
Burst pressure..........................................................................................................................................................
vessel 212

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Calculate contours
..........................................................................................................................................................
for 213
Calculate toxic
..........................................................................................................................................................
contour by 213
Case description
.......................................................................................................................................................... 213
Cause of vessel
..........................................................................................................................................................
failure 213
Chem ical nam ..........................................................................................................................................................
e 214
Cloud cover .......................................................................................................................................................... 214
Cloud passage ..........................................................................................................................................................
tim e 214
Com bustion..........................................................................................................................................................
rate 214
Concentrating ..........................................................................................................................................................
averaging tim e flam m ables 216
Concentrating ..........................................................................................................................................................
averaging tim e toxics 216
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
at (Sd, Yd) 216
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
at (Xd, Yd, Zd, t) 216
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
at m axim um plum e rise 216
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
at plum e touch-dow n 217
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
at plum e's centre-line at Xd 217
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
averaging tim e 217
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
indoors at tim e t 218
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
reduction at t 218
Confined m ass..........................................................................................................................................................
in explosive range 219
Contour plot..........................................................................................................................................................
accuracy 219
Cross-sectional
..........................................................................................................................................................
area of the tank 219
Curve Num ber .......................................................................................................................................................... 220
CurveNum ber ..........................................................................................................................................................
for ME 221
Dam age (general
..........................................................................................................................................................
description) at Xd 221
Dam age to brick
..........................................................................................................................................................
houses at Xd 222
Dam age to structures
..........................................................................................................................................................
(em pirical) at Xd 222
Dam age to typical
..........................................................................................................................................................
Am erican-style houses at Xd 223
Day Month Year..........................................................................................................................................................
num ber 223
Default m ixingheight
.......................................................................................................................................................... 224
Define population
..........................................................................................................................................................
by 224
Density at tim..........................................................................................................................................................
eT 224
Density gas at..........................................................................................................................................................
pipe exit at tim e t 224
Diam eter of expanded
..........................................................................................................................................................
jet 224
Diam eter of expanded
..........................................................................................................................................................
jet at tim e t 225
Discharge coefficient
.......................................................................................................................................................... 225
Distance from ..........................................................................................................................................................
center of the pool (Xd) 225
Distance from ..........................................................................................................................................................
centre m ass of confined explosive cloud to point of study 226
Distance from ..........................................................................................................................................................
centre m ass of the cloud at w hich threshold overpressure is reached 226
Distance from ..........................................................................................................................................................
centre of vessel (Xd) 226
Distance from ..........................................................................................................................................................
release (Xd) 227
Distance perpendicular
..........................................................................................................................................................
to w ind direction (Yd) 228
Distance to plum
..........................................................................................................................................................
e touch-dow n 228
Distance to toxic
..........................................................................................................................................................
dose D or fraction of m ortality F 228
Dose at (Xd, Yd,
..........................................................................................................................................................
Zd) 229
Dose reduction..........................................................................................................................................................
at t 229
Duration of the
..........................................................................................................................................................
fire 229
Duration of the
..........................................................................................................................................................
release 229
Equivalency factor
.......................................................................................................................................................... 230
Equivalent TNT..........................................................................................................................................................
m ass 230
Evacuation tim..........................................................................................................................................................
e 230
Evaporation from
..........................................................................................................................................................
Land or Water 231
Exit vapor m ass
..........................................................................................................................................................
fraction 231
Exit vapour m..........................................................................................................................................................
ass fraction at tim e t 231
Expansion type.......................................................................................................................................................... 231
Explosive Mass.......................................................................................................................................................... 231
Explosive m ass
..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e t 232
Exposure duration
.......................................................................................................................................................... 232
Exposure duration
..........................................................................................................................................................
to heat radiation 233

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Contents 7

Extrapolated..........................................................................................................................................................
tim e to em pty pipeline 233
Filling degree..........................................................................................................................................................
(liquid volum e/tank volum e) 233
Filling degree..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e t 233
Fixed indoors ..........................................................................................................................................................
outdoors toxic ratio 234
Flam e path length
.......................................................................................................................................................... 234
Flam e tem perature
.......................................................................................................................................................... 234
Flam e tilt .......................................................................................................................................................... 235
Fraction com..........................................................................................................................................................
bustion heat radiated 235
Fraction confined
..........................................................................................................................................................
m ass in ME 236
Fraction of CO2
..........................................................................................................................................................
in Atm osphere 236
Fraction of flam
..........................................................................................................................................................
m able cloud confined 236
Fraction of liberated
..........................................................................................................................................................
energy going to kinetic energy 237
Fraction of m..........................................................................................................................................................
ortality at (Xd, Yd, Zd) 237
Fraction of the
..........................................................................................................................................................
flam e covered by soot 237
Fragm ent distribution
.......................................................................................................................................................... 238
Froude Num ber.......................................................................................................................................................... 238
Frustum lift off
..........................................................................................................................................................
height (b) 238
GAME equivalent
..........................................................................................................................................................
curve num ber 239
GAME expansion..........................................................................................................................................................
type 239
Graph Area of ..........................................................................................................................................................
the cloud above LEL at release level vs. Tim e 239
Graph Circle ..........................................................................................................................................................
circum scribed to m axim um distance to threshold concentration at Zd 240
Graph Concentration
..........................................................................................................................................................
Contour Plot 240
Graph Concentration
..........................................................................................................................................................
in the plum e vs Distance 240
Graph Concentration
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs Axial distance at Yd 241
Graph Concentration
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs. Dow n-w ind distance at tim e t and (Yd, Zd) 241
Graph Concentration
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs. Tim e at (Xd, Yd, Zd) 241
Graph Distance..........................................................................................................................................................
from rupture to interface vs Tim e (COPY) 241
Graph Dynam..........................................................................................................................................................
ic pressure vs Distance 242
Graph Explosive
..........................................................................................................................................................
m ass vs. Tim e 242
Graph Filling..........................................................................................................................................................
degree vs Tim e 243
Graph Fraction..........................................................................................................................................................
of m ortality vs. Dow n-w ind distance at (Yd, Zd) 243
Graph Height..........................................................................................................................................................
of the liquid inside the vessel vs Tim e 243
Graph Jet velocity
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs Axial distance at Yd 243
Graph Mass ..........................................................................................................................................................
flow rate vs Tim e 244
Graph Mass ..........................................................................................................................................................
of liquid rem aining in the vessel vs Tim e 244
Graph Mass ..........................................................................................................................................................
of vapour rem aining in the vessel vs Tim e 244
Graph Maxim..........................................................................................................................................................
um concentration vs Dow nw ind distance 244
Graph Maxim..........................................................................................................................................................
um range contour plot 245
Graph Overpressure
..........................................................................................................................................................
contour plot 245
Graph Overpressure
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs Distance 245
Graph Plum e..........................................................................................................................................................
height vs Distance from stack 245
Graph Plum e..........................................................................................................................................................
radius vs Distance from stack 246
Graph Positive..........................................................................................................................................................
phase duration vs Distance 246
Graph Pressure..........................................................................................................................................................
at pipe exit vs Tim e 246
Graph Pressure..........................................................................................................................................................
im pulse vs Distance 247
Graph Quality..........................................................................................................................................................
outflow at pipe exit vs Tim e 247
Graph Tem perature
..........................................................................................................................................................
at pipe exit vs Tim e 247
Graph Tem perature
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs Axial distance 247
Graph Total m ..........................................................................................................................................................
ass released vs Tim e 248
Graph Toxic Contour
..........................................................................................................................................................
Plot 248
Graph Toxic dose
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs. Dow n-w ind distance at (Yd, Zd) 248
Graph Vessel ..........................................................................................................................................................
pressure vs Tim e 248
Graph Vessel ..........................................................................................................................................................
tem perature vs Tim e 249
Graph Void fraction
..........................................................................................................................................................
at pipe exit vs Tim e 249
Grid resolution
.......................................................................................................................................................... 249
Ground / Surface/
..........................................................................................................................................................
Bund tem perature 249
Heat em ission..........................................................................................................................................................
from fire surface 250
Heat flux from..........................................................................................................................................................
solar radiation 250

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Heat of reaction
..........................................................................................................................................................
per kg product 250
Heat radiation ..........................................................................................................................................................
at Xd 250
Heat radiation ..........................................................................................................................................................
dam age probits 250
Heat Radiation ..........................................................................................................................................................
Exposure Duration 251
Heat radiation ..........................................................................................................................................................
level total destruction 252
Heat radiation ..........................................................................................................................................................
levels in contour plot 252
Height (Zd) .......................................................................................................................................................... 252
Height bottom ..........................................................................................................................................................
of the fire ball 252
Height difference
..........................................................................................................................................................
betw een pipe entrance and exit 253
Height leak above
..........................................................................................................................................................
tank bottom 253
Height of confined
..........................................................................................................................................................
pool above ground level 254
Height of congested
..........................................................................................................................................................
area 254
Height of construction
.......................................................................................................................................................... 255
Height of liquid
..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e t 255
Height of observer
..........................................................................................................................................................
above ground level 255
Height of pool ..........................................................................................................................................................
at T=0 256
Height of the..........................................................................................................................................................
plum e's centre-line at Xd 256
Height to LEL..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e t 256
Hole contraction
..........................................................................................................................................................
coefficient 256
Hole diam eter .......................................................................................................................................................... 257
Hole rounding .......................................................................................................................................................... 257
Hole type .......................................................................................................................................................... 257
Include overpressure
..........................................................................................................................................................
effects 257
Indoor Ventilation
..........................................................................................................................................................
ratio 258
Initial density.......................................................................................................................................................... 258
Initial height ..........................................................................................................................................................
of the liquid above release point 258
Initial jet pressure
.......................................................................................................................................................... 258
Initial jet tem..........................................................................................................................................................
perature 258
Initial liquid m
..........................................................................................................................................................
ass fraction 259
Initial m ass in
..........................................................................................................................................................
vessel 259
Initial plum e ..........................................................................................................................................................
density 259
Initial pressure
..........................................................................................................................................................
in pipeline 259
Initial pressure
..........................................................................................................................................................
in vessel 259
Initial source..........................................................................................................................................................
strength 260
Initial speed ..........................................................................................................................................................
of fragm ent 260
Initial tem perature
..........................................................................................................................................................
in pipeline 260
Initial tem perature
..........................................................................................................................................................
in vessel 260
Inside fraction.......................................................................................................................................................... 260
Integration tolerance
.......................................................................................................................................................... 260
Inverse Monin-Obukhov
..........................................................................................................................................................
Length (1/L) 261
Is the vessel..........................................................................................................................................................
elevated? 261
Jet velocity at..........................................................................................................................................................
(Sd, Yd) 262
Latitude .......................................................................................................................................................... 262
Length cylinder.......................................................................................................................................................... 262
Length of cloud..........................................................................................................................................................
(betw een LEL) 263
Length of frustum
..........................................................................................................................................................
(flam e) (Rl) 263
Length of rectangular
..........................................................................................................................................................
pool 264
Length of toxic..........................................................................................................................................................
contour 264
Length source ..........................................................................................................................................................
in w ind (x), crossw ind (y) and z-direction 264
Length-Diam..........................................................................................................................................................
eter ratio of the vessel 265
Lethal fraction..........................................................................................................................................................
dam age report 266
Lethal fraction..........................................................................................................................................................
flam e contour 266
Lethal fraction..........................................................................................................................................................
flashfire 266
Lethal fraction..........................................................................................................................................................
Pressure inside dam age 266
Lethal fraction..........................................................................................................................................................
pressure total destruction zone 266
Liberated energy
.......................................................................................................................................................... 266
Lim it of m om..........................................................................................................................................................
entum region 267
Liquid m ass ..........................................................................................................................................................
fraction in cloud 267

2016 TNO
Contents 9

Mass flow rate


..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e t 267
Mass flow rate
..........................................................................................................................................................
of the source 268
Mass of em pty
..........................................................................................................................................................
vessel 268
Mass of fragm..........................................................................................................................................................
ent 268
Mass of heaviest
..........................................................................................................................................................
piece 268
Mass of liquid
..........................................................................................................................................................
in vessel at tim e t 268
Mass of vapour
..........................................................................................................................................................
in vessel at tim e t 269
Maxim um area..........................................................................................................................................................
of explosive cloud 269
Maxim um Averaging
..........................................................................................................................................................
Tim e 269
Maxim um concentration
..........................................................................................................................................................
at (Yd, Zd) 269
Maxim um distance
..........................................................................................................................................................
of source to LEL 270
Maxim um distance
..........................................................................................................................................................
to threshold 270
Maxim um evaluation
..........................................................................................................................................................
tim e 270
Maxim um explosive
..........................................................................................................................................................
m ass 270
Maxim um m ass
..........................................................................................................................................................
flow rate 270
Maxim um plum..........................................................................................................................................................
e height 271
Maxim um range
..........................................................................................................................................................
of fragm ent 271
Maxim um release
..........................................................................................................................................................
duration 271
Maxim um tem ..........................................................................................................................................................
perature difference 271
Meteorological
..........................................................................................................................................................
Data 272
Minim um Averaging
..........................................................................................................................................................
Tim e 272
Mixing Height.......................................................................................................................................................... 272
Model valid until
..........................................................................................................................................................
tim e 273
n value .......................................................................................................................................................... 273
Net m ass rained
..........................................................................................................................................................
out 273
Num ber of pieces
.......................................................................................................................................................... 274
Offset betw een
..........................................................................................................................................................
release location and LEL 274
Offset betw een
..........................................................................................................................................................
release point and cloud centre 274
Outcom e Phenom
..........................................................................................................................................................
ena 274
Outdoor concentration
.......................................................................................................................................................... 275
Outflow angle..........................................................................................................................................................
in XZ plane (0=horizontal ; 90=vertical) 275
Outflow tim e.......................................................................................................................................................... 275
Output m essage
..........................................................................................................................................................
level 275
Overpressure ..........................................................................................................................................................
above liquid 276
Pasquill stability
..........................................................................................................................................................
class 276
Peak dynam ic..........................................................................................................................................................
pressure at Xd 277
Peak overpressure
..........................................................................................................................................................
at Xd 277
Peak pressure..........................................................................................................................................................
inside dam age 277
Percentage of..........................................................................................................................................................
m ortality 277
Perform m axim
..........................................................................................................................................................
um concentration vs. distance graph 277
Perform tim e-dependent
..........................................................................................................................................................
explosive graphs 277
Perform toxic..........................................................................................................................................................
contour plot 278
Perform toxic..........................................................................................................................................................
indoors calculation 278
Pipe contraction
..........................................................................................................................................................
coefficient 278
Pipeline diam..........................................................................................................................................................
eter 278
Pipeline length
.......................................................................................................................................................... 278
Pipeline roughness
.......................................................................................................................................................... 280
Pipeline volum
..........................................................................................................................................................
e 280
Pool surface.......................................................................................................................................................... 280
Pool tem perature
.......................................................................................................................................................... 281
Pool thickness
.......................................................................................................................................................... 281
Poolfire calculation
..........................................................................................................................................................
type 281
Population polygon
.......................................................................................................................................................... 282
Positive phase
..........................................................................................................................................................
duration at Xd 282
Predefined concentration
.......................................................................................................................................................... 282
Predefined w..........................................................................................................................................................
ind direction 282
Pressure at pipe
..........................................................................................................................................................
exit at tim e t 283
Pressure at tim
..........................................................................................................................................................
eT 283

2016 TNO
10 RISKCURVES

Pressure dam ..........................................................................................................................................................


age based on 283
Pressure dam ..........................................................................................................................................................
age Probits 283
Pressure im..........................................................................................................................................................
pulse at Xd 284
Pressure in vessel
..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e t 284
Pressure inside
..........................................................................................................................................................
vessel determ ination 284
Pressure level..........................................................................................................................................................
total destruction 284
Pressure level..........................................................................................................................................................
total destruction_2 284
Probabilty FlashAndExplosion
.......................................................................................................................................................... 285
Projection System
..........................................................................................................................................................
s 285
Protection factor
..........................................................................................................................................................
clothing 285
Radial distance
..........................................................................................................................................................
from release (Yd) 285
Radius at m axim
..........................................................................................................................................................
um plum e rise 286
Radius of flashfire
.......................................................................................................................................................... 286
Radius of the..........................................................................................................................................................
fireball 286
Rainout m ass .......................................................................................................................................................... 287
Related lethal..........................................................................................................................................................
fraction for peak overpressure 287
Related lethal..........................................................................................................................................................
fraction for peak overpressure_2 287
Release location
.......................................................................................................................................................... 288
Reporting tim ..........................................................................................................................................................
e cloud 288
Representative..........................................................................................................................................................
density 288
Representative..........................................................................................................................................................
outflow duration 288
Representative..........................................................................................................................................................
pool radius 289
Representative..........................................................................................................................................................
pressure 289
Representative..........................................................................................................................................................
release rate 289
Representative..........................................................................................................................................................
tem perature 289
Representative..........................................................................................................................................................
vapour m ass fraction 290
Resolution of..........................................................................................................................................................
the tim e consum ing graphs 290
Response fraction
..........................................................................................................................................................
indoors 290
Response fraction
..........................................................................................................................................................
outdoors 290
Room volum..........................................................................................................................................................
e 291
Roughness length
..........................................................................................................................................................
description 291
Shape Definition
.......................................................................................................................................................... 292
Solar Radiation
..........................................................................................................................................................
Flux 293
Sound speed..........................................................................................................................................................
in liquid phase 293
Speed of released
..........................................................................................................................................................
chem ical at the source 293
Spray calculation
..........................................................................................................................................................
type 294
Standard deviation
..........................................................................................................................................................
of turbulent velocity in vertical and horizontal direction 294
Standard pipe ..........................................................................................................................................................
roughness 295
Start of exposure
..........................................................................................................................................................
(after m om ent of release) 295
Step size for..........................................................................................................................................................
contour searching 295
Subsoil / w ater
..........................................................................................................................................................
tem perature 296
Subsoil Roughness
.......................................................................................................................................................... 296
Subsoil type .......................................................................................................................................................... 297
Surface area..........................................................................................................................................................
of a cylinder 297
Surface area..........................................................................................................................................................
of frustum 297
Surface em issive
..........................................................................................................................................................
pow er (actual) 298
Surface em issive
..........................................................................................................................................................
pow er (m ax) 298
Take protective
..........................................................................................................................................................
effects of clothing into account? 299
Tem perature..........................................................................................................................................................
after release 299
Tem perature..........................................................................................................................................................
at pipe exit at tim e t 299
Tem perature..........................................................................................................................................................
at Sd 299
Tem perature..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e T 300
Tem perature..........................................................................................................................................................
in vessel at tim e t 300
Tem perature..........................................................................................................................................................
of the pool 300
Tem perature..........................................................................................................................................................
vapour/liquid 300
Threshold concentration
.......................................................................................................................................................... 301
Threshold fraction
..........................................................................................................................................................
of m ortality F 301
Threshold heat..........................................................................................................................................................
radiation level 301

2016 TNO
Contents 11

Threshold overpressure
.......................................................................................................................................................... 302
Threshold toxic
..........................................................................................................................................................
dose D 302
Tilt angle central
..........................................................................................................................................................
axis flare (ab) 302
Tim e needed..........................................................................................................................................................
to em pty pipe (extrapolated) 303
Tim e needed..........................................................................................................................................................
to em pty vessel 303
Tim e pool has..........................................................................................................................................................
evaporated 303
Tim e pool spreading
..........................................................................................................................................................
ends 304
Tim e t after cloud
..........................................................................................................................................................
arrival 304
Tim e t after start
..........................................................................................................................................................
release 304
Total com bustion
..........................................................................................................................................................
energy 304
Total m ass in..........................................................................................................................................................
cloud 304
Total m ass in..........................................................................................................................................................
explosive range 305
Total m ass in..........................................................................................................................................................
vessel 305
Total m ass involved
..........................................................................................................................................................
in BLEVE 305
Total m ass of..........................................................................................................................................................
decom posable chem ical in vessel 305
Total m ass released
.......................................................................................................................................................... 306
Total m ass released
..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e t 306
Toxic dose indoors
.......................................................................................................................................................... 306
Toxic dose outdoors
.......................................................................................................................................................... 306
Toxic Exposure..........................................................................................................................................................
Duration 307
Toxic Exposure..........................................................................................................................................................
Duration based on 307
Toxic Inhalation
..........................................................................................................................................................
Heigth 308
Transition tim..........................................................................................................................................................
e to vapour flow 308
Turbulent Free..........................................................................................................................................................
Jet Pressure 309
Type of calculation
.......................................................................................................................................................... 309
Type of confinem
..........................................................................................................................................................
ent 310
Type of flow ..........................................................................................................................................................
inside the vessel 310
Type of flow ..........................................................................................................................................................
of the jet 311
Type of pool.......................................................................................................................................................... 311
Type of release
.......................................................................................................................................................... 312
Type of spreading
.......................................................................................................................................................... 313
Type of subsoil
.......................................................................................................................................................... 313
Type of TNT equivalency
.......................................................................................................................................................... 313
Typical obstacle
..........................................................................................................................................................
diam eter 314
Use 50% LEL.......................................................................................................................................................... 314
Use dynam ic..........................................................................................................................................................
concentration 314
Use Gam e overpressure
.......................................................................................................................................................... 314
Use m ass betw..........................................................................................................................................................
een LEL and UEL 315
Use w hich representative
..........................................................................................................................................................
step 315
Used sauter ..........................................................................................................................................................
m ean diam eter 316
User com m ent.......................................................................................................................................................... 316
Ventilation rate
..........................................................................................................................................................
at daytim e 317
Ventilation rate
..........................................................................................................................................................
at nighttim e 317
Ventilation ratio
.......................................................................................................................................................... 317
Vessel em ptying
..........................................................................................................................................................
duration 317
Vessel Type.......................................................................................................................................................... 317
Vessel Volum ..........................................................................................................................................................
e 318
View factor .......................................................................................................................................................... 318
Volum e Blockage
..........................................................................................................................................................
Ratio 319
Volum etric fraction
..........................................................................................................................................................
of chem ical at release point 319
Water tem perature
.......................................................................................................................................................... 319
Weight ratio ..........................................................................................................................................................
of CO2/chem ical 319
Weight ratio ..........................................................................................................................................................
of H2O/chem ical 320
Weight ratio ..........................................................................................................................................................
of HCl/chem ical 320
Weight ratio ..........................................................................................................................................................
of NO2/chem ical 320
Weight ratio ..........................................................................................................................................................
of SO2/chem ical 320
Width of cloud..........................................................................................................................................................
(betw een LEL) 320
Width of frustum
..........................................................................................................................................................
base (W1) 320

2016 TNO
12 RISKCURVES

Width of frustum
..........................................................................................................................................................
tip (W2) 321
Width of toxic..........................................................................................................................................................
contour 322
Wind com es ..........................................................................................................................................................
from (North = 0 degrees) 322
Wind direction..........................................................................................................................................................
for dam age 322
Wind speed at ..........................................................................................................................................................
10m height 322
X or Z offset ..........................................................................................................................................................
dispersion 322
X, Y - coordinates
..........................................................................................................................................................
of release 322
Z - coordinate..........................................................................................................................................................
(height) of release 323
6 Risk ...................................................................................................................................
parameters 323
Base frequency.......................................................................................................................................................... 323
Bleve fraction.......................................................................................................................................................... 323
Calculate Heat..........................................................................................................................................................
Risk by 323
Calculate Toxic
..........................................................................................................................................................
Risk by 324
Cell size for ..........................................................................................................................................................
risk grids 324
Cell size for ..........................................................................................................................................................
population grids 324
Chance delayed..........................................................................................................................................................
ignition 325
Chance direct ..........................................................................................................................................................
ignition 325
Create Consequence
..........................................................................................................................................................
Risk Contours 326
Create Societal
..........................................................................................................................................................
Risk Maps 326
Cum ulate transport
..........................................................................................................................................................
routes 326
Fraction frequency
..........................................................................................................................................................
in daytim e hours 326
Fraction w ith..........................................................................................................................................................
explosion phenom ena 327
Frequency Correction
..........................................................................................................................................................
Factor 327
Frequency equally
..........................................................................................................................................................
distributed day/night 327
Inter accident..........................................................................................................................................................
distance FN 327
Inter accident..........................................................................................................................................................
distance FX 328
Is tem porary..........................................................................................................................................................
(population) 328
Level interpolation
..........................................................................................................................................................
m ethod 329
Low est significant
..........................................................................................................................................................
frequency 329
Maxim um accident
..........................................................................................................................................................
points per route 329
Maxim um toxic..........................................................................................................................................................
exposure duration 330
Meteorological..........................................................................................................................................................
Daytim e Fraction 330
Num ber subsectors
..........................................................................................................................................................
FN 330
Num ber subsectors
..........................................................................................................................................................
FX 330
Perform societal
..........................................................................................................................................................
risk calculation 331
Probabilty FlashAndExplosion
.......................................................................................................................................................... 331
Utilisation fraction
.......................................................................................................................................................... 331

Chapter VI Appendices 333


1 List of
...................................................................................................................................
chemicals 333
2 Low ...................................................................................................................................
level error messages 334
3 Known
...................................................................................................................................
limitations 336

Index 339

2016 TNO
Introduction 13

1 Introduction
This manual is delivered in Adobes PDF-format and as CHM help file format. You are free to
print the manual for your own use with respect to the license conditions of the software.

You can access this manual directly from within the software from the Help menu or via the
installed entry in the Windows START-menu.

If you discover any omissions, errors or inconsistencies, we kindly ask you to contact us
directly via email (helpdesk.riskcurves@tno.nl) or use the built-in email feature accessible
from the About box.

1.1 TNO software products


TNO Department of Industrial and External Safety delivers two different software products:
EFFECTS and RISKCURVES. This manual describes the RISKCURVES version 10 product
that is currently available for Quantitative Risk Analysis.

EFFECTS
EFFECTS performs calculations to predict the physical effects (gas concentrations, heat
radiation levels, peak overpressure's etc.) of the escape of hazardous materials. Results are
presented in either textual or graphical format. Furthermore it is equipped with an internal GIS
viewer (Geographic Information System) that enables the user to present the calculation
results of effect and consequence calculations on a map background.

Models in EFFECTS are based upon the Yellow Book, third edition, second print 2005 [1] or
may have been adapted to more recent theoretical insights. Background information about the
source of the model is provided through the menu option "Help"- "Model documentation".

EFFECTS can also model complex releases by linking individual models in such a way that
they describe all physical phenomena that may occur during that release. For example a
liquid release will consist of a release model, connected to an evaporation model, which is
then linked to a dispersion model that calculates the concentration profiles in the environment.
Finally it might be linked to an explosion model to calculate the ultimate effects due to peak
overpressure's or heat radiation if the chemical is flammable and ignites.

RISKCURVES
RISKCURVES is a full-featured computer program to perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
(QRA). It is capable of calculating geographical risk, offsite societal risk, injury risk, onsite
societal risk and personal individual risk. Transport risk is supported for all types of risk.

RISKCURVES can analyse risk by means of the most dominant contributor, construct all
types of societal and individual risk curves, display risk contours, calculate transport risk per
kilometer of route and export relevant data to GIS (Geographical Information Systems) like
ArcView and ArcInfo.

More information about RISKCURVES can be obtained from our sales department.

Contact via email: info.riskcurves@tno.nl or http://www.tno.nl/RISKCURVES.

2016 TNO
14 RISKCURVES

YAWS and licensed DIPPR database


EFFECTS and RISKCURVES both come with a standard database, containing YAWS and
(licensed) DIPPR chemical substance properties. The DIPPR database, with over 2000
chemicals, is licensed and contains DIPPR 2010 and DIPPR 2015 sources. TNO
recommends the use of the latest extended DIPPR database, but be aware that, because
values of typical properties (like LEL, Lower Explosion Limits) may have changed in
subsequent versions, it is possible that the latest database version will create slightly different
answers.

DIPPR includes "Non ideal gas" behaviour

Because the DIPPR database contains a "Second Virial Coefficient", which describes the non
ideal (compressibility) behaviour of a chemical, results of calculation with the DIPPR
databases may differ from YAWS based calculation, especially in the case of gas release
calculations.

Throughout this manual, the acronym DIPPR is used to denote the extended database. The
Design Institute for Physical Property Data and its acronym DIPPR are registered
trademarks of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE) and are used by
permission.

1.2 Installation
1.2.1 System requirements
RISKCURVES 10 is developed for the Windows 7/8/10 OS platforms. There are no special
requirements with respect to memory or disk space other than a free USB-port to
accommodate the protection key. For more complex calculations, RISKCURVES benefits
from additional internal memory and a faster processor. RISKCURVES 10 runs on Windows
7/8/10 64-bit as a 32 bit application and has been thoroughly tested on 64 bit environment.

1.2.2 The protection key


To prevent unauthorised use, the software is protected with a special protection key
(dongle). The dongle should be connected to a free USB-port of the PC during use of
RISKCURVES. The protection key represents the ownership of the license and will only be
replaced by TNO if proven defective. In case of loss or theft of the key, replacement is the
sole responsibility of the user.

The protection key is remotely programmable by TNO and contains information about the
owner and specification of the granted license (program, version, options etc.). Before its first
use or if the license conditions change (due to the purchase of an upgrade or additional
option), the key will need to be reprogrammed once. This process requires access to email
functionality and instructions will be included with the delivery of the software.

2016 TNO
Introduction 15

1.2.3 Installation and de-installation


Installing and de-installing the software needs sufficient administrative rights to do so. You
may need to contact your IT-department for support on this requirement. Apart from
installation, administrative right are not required.

The software comes with a full-featured setup program. Please follow the instructions
carefully and make sure the protection key is NOT inserted during installation. The default
driver for the protection key that is installed is from Hasp/Sentinel. If the same driver but in a
newer version is required by another software program, the installation for RISKCURVES can
be omitted. If in that situation RSIKCURVES does not recognise the protection key correctly,
please contact the TNO helpdesk: helpdesk.riskcurves@tno.nl

De-installation is done by selecting the appropriate entry in the installed program group under
the Windows START menu. Alternatively, one can use the "Uninstall" option within the
"Programs" group in the windows control panel.

1.2.4 Upgrading from version 9


RISKCURVES 10 uses a slightly modified project file structure, which is recognized by its
new file extension <.RISX> . In the file load dialog, it is possible to select the file type old
<Riskcurves> file extension, enabling an automatically translation process, creating a new
file.

However Since RISKCURVES 10 now uses a real world projection system, all location
related data may need to be converted to work correctly. As of version 10, coordinates of
equipment, positioning of background maps etc. are at an absolute position in a specific GIS
projection system. Version 9 was positioning everything relative to a self defined origine,
usually a (0,0) coordinate.

Upon opening a RIKSCURVES 9 project, an import wizard will be opening, guiding the user in
importing, because this translation requires an important decision with respect to the
projection system applicable to the project.

If the version 9 project contains societal risk calculations which are based on an imported
grid, it is strongly advised to use the default recommendation by the software .

The conversion to a known GIS system may lead to some loss of detail of the
population grid.

2016 TNO
16 RISKCURVES

Option 1: No conversion: All the coordinates are within the range of 20 km of a (0,0)
coordinate. Everything remains unchanged and a default mercator projection system is used.

Option 2: Move to (0,0): Coordinates withing the project have higher values than
(20000,20000) meters from origin. To avoid any deviation with the original calculations due to
projection system translations, all geographic data is translated to a new (0,0) coordinate
located at the lower left of the study area. After selecting this option, the user has the
possibility to adjust the new origin to a coordinate within the boundaries of the project area.

2016 TNO
Introduction 17

Option 3: Convert from a known GIS system: In this case, the user have been defining all
equipment locations in a well defined projection system. This will remain the original
coordinates and utilize a fixed system.

1.2.5 Upgrading from older versions


To import projects that were created with version 7, two steps are necessary to convert the
project to the format towards RISKCURVES 9. Note that the previously stored calculation
results will not be included in the converted project. In cases where a calculation model has
newly added input parameters in the converted version, these fields will show up empty.
Pressing Defaults will fill-in the default values without overwriting the already entered fields.

Upgrading from RISKCURVES 7

Projects
RISKCURVES differs in project file format from RISKCURVES 7. The new files are identified
by their .riskcurves extension. The RISKCURVES 7 project files use the .clc extension.

To use RISKCURVES 7 projects in RISKCURVES 9, they need to be converted with the


RISKCURVES Project Converter. The converter can be started from the Windows START
menu under RISKCURVES , or in the Windows file explorer by right-clicking on an
RISKCURVES 7 project file and selecting convert.

Once the required RISKCURVES 7 project file is selected, clicking the Convert button will
create a new project file suitable for RISKCURVES in a definable project folder. The original
RISKCURVES 7 file will not be overwritten. All input needed to recalculate will be included,
including population and meteo definition. Rresults are not converted since they are probably
not valid since the calculation accuracy and method has changed.

Note that some models in RISKCURVES 9 require additional parameters compared to


RISKCURVES 7. Furthermore, the damage definitions have more strict checking on the
definitions than the previous consequence interfaces. The new RISKCURVES now requires
to use increasing distances for decreasing lethality levels. Due to this test, some translated
scenario's might be presented in red, indicating wrong or missing input.

By default all scenarios with input data will be converted.

2016 TNO
18 RISKCURVES

User defined chemicals


RISKCURVES 9 uses a new database model. User chemicals defined in previous versions
have to be converted using the Database Converter. This converter can be found in the start-
menu "Chemicals Converter".

To convert user defined chemicals from your old database (.rdb file), start the converter and
click 'Open File'. Select the database file with your user defined chemicals and click 'Open'.

You can now select chemicals in the left-hand list, and drag them (or click the '>>' button) to
the right-hand list: this will import the selected chemicals into the new database labeled as
user-defined chemical. The right-hand list will show you all chemicals in the new user
database.

2016 TNO
Introduction 19

The filter field can be used to search for chemicals.

If you've imported too much chemicals by mistake, you can delete them later in the Database
Editor.

Upgrading from RISKCURVES 4 (DOS version)

There is no build-in support for RISKCURVES project older than version 7.

To be able to use version 4 input files, it is advised to convert these input files by the update
procedure of RISKCURVES 7 itself. This will provide a RISKCURVES 7 (.clc and .inf) format
file, which can be read within the new RISKCURVES 9.

2016 TNO
20 RISKCURVES

1.3 What is RISKCURVES


RISKCURVES is a computer program package to perform a Quantitative Risk Assessment
(QRA) for activities with hazardous materials. Risk is defined in this context as the
probability per unit of time (frequency) that humans in the vicinity of the hazardous material
may suffer lethal consequences due to an unwanted release.

A Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) analyses the risks of accidents involving with
dangerous substances, resulting in lethal victims, injuries and/or material damage to
surroundings. In order to be able to compare risks, quantitative values are given for Individual
Risks and Societal Risk.

RISKCURVES uses an intuitive modular approach, allowing the use of topographic maps or
aerial pictures to define potential Loss of Containment Scenarios. Advanced geographic
presentations can be created by using the internal GIS presentation system. Based upon the
Yellow Book [1], Green Book [2], and Purple Book [3], the effect and consequence models
included within RISKCURVES provide a sound, scientific and transparent basis to perform a
QRA.

The number of degrees of freedom for a QRA is huge. The publication CPR 18E (Purple
book: Guidelines for quantitative risk assessment) provides important guidelines on choosing
equipment, (Loss of Containment) scenarios to be evaluated, effect-calculation models and
background information like meteorological data.

Al information from this Purple Book is implemented within RISKCURVES, providing a


coherent and consistent QRA calculation tool.

1.3.1 Which task can RISKCURVES perform


In a QRA specific accident scenarios are defined, specifying subsequent events. For
example: an outflow, pool formation, evaporation, dispersion eventually leading to lethal
effects.

The calculation of chances and effects of the identified events will lead to quantitative values
for Individual Risks and Societal Risks. Individual Risk are usually presented as Iso Risk
Contours: lines on a topographic map which represent point with equal PR value: e.g. the 10-
6 contour.

RISKCURVES is capable of performing physical effect, probability and consequence


calculations to calculate individual and societal risk. It can also calculate risk caused by the
transport of hazardous materials. It facilitates data entry and presentation of the results by
using a highly visual approach. Results are presented by means of individual risk contours,
societal risk curves (FN-curves) and optionally provides Societal Risk Maps. (A Societal Risk
Map is a visualisation of the societal risk at a specific location: illustrating either absolute level
or relative contribution at that location).

The number of degrees of freedom for a QRA is huge. The publication CPR 18E (Purple
book: Guidelines for quantitative risk assessment) provides important guidelines on choosing
equipment (so-called sub selection method), the typical "Loss of Containment" scenarios to
be evaluated, effect-calculation models and background information like meteorological data.

2016 TNO
Introduction 21

1.3.2 What is the required input


The typical questions to be raised when performing a QRA are the What and Where
questions: What are the typical Loss Of Containment (LOC) scenarios, and where are they
situated. The geographic location of the scenario will also determine the specific
environmental parameters: temperature, pressure, humidity, surface roughness (influencing
dispersion) and meteorological data (probability of wind coming from specific direction with
specific speed and specific stability class).

Within CPR-18, it is prescribed which equipments and which scenarios should be evaluated
within a QRA. Within RISKCURVES, the user can simply add any equipment which is present
within the system boundaries of the site to be studied. The location of the equipment needs to
be provided as equipment coordinates or a route. It is strongly advised to use a digital
background map of the area as underground. Once the equipment is positioned,
RISKCURVES can add the corresponding LOC scenarios (G1, G2, G3), including the failure
rate frequencies and event or phenomena dependent probabilities.

A LOC scenario is provided as a pre-calculated consequence zone, called damage definition


(previous version used the indistinctive term Consequence Interface) or as a consequence
calculation model. For the latter case, EFFECTS consequence models are being used within
the calculation core of RISKCURVES. It is also possible to copy / paste EFFECTS end model
calculations into a RISKCURVES scenario.

In general, the following information is required to perform a QRA:

1. Definition of one or more accident scenario(s) which includes the applicable frequencies of
the accident scenarios. RISKCURVES distinguishes an equipment: containing the location
of a possible event, the possible scenario's at that equipment: defining the frequencies,
and an underlying modelset: defining the damage zones.

2. Definition of Meteorological probability distributions: this includes stability class / wind


directions; for multiple stability classes (Pasquill A..F) and wind sectors. When unknown,
a standard (equal) distribution can be used.

3. It is very convenient (but not obliged) to use a digital background map to position the
scenarios and use as a background layer when presenting results.

4. Environmental conditions typical for the location of the study area (temperatures, humidity,
solar radiation) need to be provided.

5. Vulnerability conditions describe relations between phenomena and resulting damage


(lethality).

6. In case of societal risk calculations you will need a population distribution

1.3.3 What kind of results are obtained?


RISKCURVES will perform all chance, effect- and damage/consequence calculations
according to CPR 18E, and will calculate the Individual Risk and Societal Risk.

A person who is on a specific location will have a chance to be a lethal victim of an accident
at installation A and an accident at location B. Both chances can be added together and
presented on a geographic map as Iso Risk Contours.

2016 TNO
22 RISKCURVES

The individual risk criteria assumes 100% presence and an unprotected situation outside. A
so-called Iso Risk Contour can be drawn by connecting all points with equal Individual Risk.

The Individual Risk can also be presented in a so-called FX curve, which presents the fraction
lethal versus distance from the release point, for different wind-directions.

2016 TNO
Introduction 23

Risk contours are available on the level of a calculation set, cumulation sets, comparison sets
and individual equipments.

A Risk transect can be provide for a specific line track. Such a transect will provide the risk as
a function of the place along this track.

Apart from illustrating the the chance on lethality, it is also possible to show the chance of a
specific consequence level occurring, as shown in Consequence Risks.

The Consequence Risk (CR) is defined as the chance per year that a specific threshold
level of a physical effect (overpressure, heat radiation, toxic load) is exceeded. The CR
Contours on a map present locations were the CR has identical values.

Where individual risk contours illustrate the chance of lethality on a location, consequence
level contours illustrate the chance that a specific pressure level, heat radiation level or toxic
threshold is exceeded. This particular information is used in facility siting (positioning of
buildings and constructions showing the chance of them being exposed to a specific effect
level) and potential injury risk evaluation.

2016 TNO
24 RISKCURVES

The specific levels of interest to be shown in the contours must be defined in Consequence
risk settings where heat load and toxic load may be also be presented in dose levels.

Note that changing a threshold levels requires an adapted risk calculation so recalculation is
required upon change. (which is not the case for a change in "presentation settings") .
Because the consequence Risk contours are specific for a defined threshold level, the
contour legend TITLE describes the levels shown for the different phenomenon.

So called analysis points can be added a any location to present Risk Ranking reports at that
spot. Such a report will present a ranking of all scenarios based on their contribution to the
(individual) risk at that point.

The Societal Risk Curve (FN-curve) presents the cumulated risk that a group of specific size
will be killed. The FN curve is depicted as a two dimension graph, using a logarithmic scale
on frequency F (Y-axis) and number of victims N (X-axis) axiss. The curve is interpreted
using a Guide value, which is a line that should preferably not be crossed. RISKCURVES
will present a Guide Ratio R value, indicating the distance to this guide value (a guide ratio
>1 implies exceeding the guide line), and also presents the Expected value E which is the
size of the area below the FN curve.

2016 TNO
Introduction 25

A FN curve appears to be not very easy to understand or explain. The curve is the result of
spatially distributed risk sources that may influence a geographically distributed population
distribution, whereas the result only present a curve. Questions that often raise are: Do we
have a problem and Where is this problem or What is causing this problem. To be able
to answer these kind of questions, a Societal Risk Map was developed and these
presentations are now available within RISKCURVES.

Two different maps can be presented: the SR area map, which indicates whether the guide
ratio is higher than one on a specific spot. The SR area map illustrates affected zones, and
height of the societal risk at a specific spot.

SR (Societal Risk) Maps is basically a geographical "Area Specific Societal Risk"


presentation of a societal risk, being a two dimensional curve.

As a result of the demand for a visualization of the societal risk, a new type of presentation
was developed in 2007. The question was raised when a societal risk calculation is fed with
geographical based information on population, and geographical based scenario locations,
why can we not see a geographical distribution of the societal risk.

Such a presentation would be very convenient for emergency response (were are the people
who are threatened by accident) or urban planning activities (how much space left for
population without exceeding societal risk limits: the guide value)

2016 TNO
26 RISKCURVES

To provide answers to both question two types of graphs were developed: the Societal Risk
Area Map and the Societal Risk Contribution map.

The Societal Risk Area map gives an indication of which areas are affected and
the height of the risk

whereas

The Societal risk Contribution Map gives an indication which cells contribute
to the societal risk

The bases for the presentation is that every grid cell from the population grid has its own FN
curve. In the case of the Contribution map, this curve relates to the victims within this
population cell. The higher the risk of this cell (expressed as the expected value of the curve)
the more red the color will be.

2016 TNO
Introduction 27

For the contribution map, the expected value is used to translate the two dimensional FN
graph into a color. The type of coloring can be adjusted, it appears that using a 6 color levels
(use legend ) provides the best contrast, but other coloring might improve the visualization.

This way the curve represents the full societal risk of scenario's for the area. Note that this
area bounded FN curve will never exceed the overall FN curve for all cells.

For the societal Risk Maps it is important to understand that the risk is determined from the
receivers point of view (instead of from source).

2016 TNO
28 RISKCURVES

Furthermore, because of the nature of the method, cumulating of various risk sources is
possible: transport & stationary installations, small & large scenarios

The idea behind this new type of visualisation is that this provides a supplementary view of
what is happening, and the maps facilitate considering societal risk in early stage of planning
process:

- the SR Area map shows areas with restrictions

- the SR Contribution map shows which areas contribute most (emergency response)

2016 TNO
Introduction 29

The underlying FN graphs per location, that are use to derive these map presentations, are
presented for every "Analysis (risk ranking) point". The societal risk at the location will display
the FN curve of all scenarios that are affecting this location, the contribution FN graph will
display the FN curve for the population within the population grid cell.

1.4 What's new in version 10


RISKCURVES 10 was revised in a number of fields. Note that the file extension is now .RISX
and version 9 files will be automatically upgraded into the new file format.

First of all, the GIS presentation system (MAP view) now supports the use of coordinate
projection systems which means that when loading existing Vs 9 projects, a decision needs
to be made which system to use.

See Upgrading from version 9 for choices to make during upgrading.

Apart from background maps that are loaded from file background maps can now be
streamed from internet based tile servers .

Secondly, some important features were added to the consequence models , most
significantly the possibility to work with Mixtures, and the corresponding new Chemical
database structure now separating user defined chemicals from "official records" and
allowing to include records various user or company specific files.

Apart from the additions of coordinate projection systems and possibility of defining chemical
mixtures, several consequence models have been adapted as well

For damage definitions, an option was added to use a "blockmode" level distribution, avoiding
interpolating between provided threshold levels but using a equal lethality within every
provided lethality level.

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1.4.1 Chemical database structure


One of the biggest enhancements of RISKCURVES 10 is its ability to work with chemical
mixtures, including the support for multiple user defined databases. To be able to provide
these features, the chemical editor layout has been redesigned.

The first thing to be aware of, when starting to work with version 10, is the fact that settings
(<Edit>,<Options>) now contains a chemical database manager that potentially allows
multiple selections for database files to use!

Upon selecting the browse buttons indicated above, the list of database files will be
presented. By default, the software will be equipped with a file called "ChemicalDatabase.tci"
containing all official DIPPR and YAWS substances.

However, the user should always add at least one "user definable" file, on a location where
write access is available! All modifications on existing chemicals, or additions of mixtures, will
be stored in this user specific file.

Note: When multiple user defined storage files are provided, the last (bottom) one in this list
will act as the active storage file for standard modifications and is illustrated in bold
characters. Chemical records from other files will be available for selection, but standard
modifications (additions, copies or defined mixtures) will be put in this bold active "user file".
When using multiple database locations, the active user file can be selected using the <up>
<down> buttons on the right of the screen.

All database that have an asterisk in front of the name are potentially writable, and can be
used to store user defined copies (use copy chemical to.. to store into specific user files). If a
user database file is write protected, it cannot be used to store modifications and copies of
chemicals . Any modifications to records that are already in a writable database will be made
in the original database. If a specific user database needs to be protected (for instance
because it is a company specific list), the administrator should add a "Read only" property to
these databases. This will result in having modifications stored in the remaining active "User
file" (bold name), and not in the original data file.

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The idea behind the possibility to include multiple chemical databases is that users can share
company specific files (e.g. from network locations) whereas user modifications will be stored
in user specific files.

If a user has been defining "user defined chemicals" in RISKCURVES version 9, these
records can be transferred to the new separated user file. Please refer to the chapter
"Converting version 9 user chemicals" if user defined chemical definitions need to be
translated into version 10.

New layout for Chemical Editor

Once the chemical editor is opened (by selecting the toolbar button or clicking the browse
button behind a chemical input field) a modified database editor will be presented.

First of all, the interface now contains a selection possibility to define the "sources" of
chemicals to be displayed. The standard database will contain DIPPR 2010, DIPPR 2015,
and YAWS (1999) databases. Apart from these, a dedicated TNO source containing water
and air (used inside models) is provided. As soon as the user changes or add properties to
existing DIPPR or YAWS records, "User defined [date]" sources will be created and
selectable.

Secondly, mixtures can be now defined in this editor: Either by selecting chemicals and
selecting "Add to mixture" or be defined by dragging a chemical to the "Mixture" panel at the
bottom of the screen.

User can also create "copies" of existing chemicals, or "create" mixtures. These new
chemicals will be added to a "User Defined" source. When using the right mouse button, a
popup menu will appear showing "Copy chemical", "Add to Mixture", "Add Property", "Add
Synonym" or "Change F2":

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The Name box allows the user to enter a text (e.g. "chlori") part to use as a filter on the
chemicals.

The Show field is expandable and allows selecting "Flammables", "Toxics" or "All" also
filtering sets of chemicals.

Sources provide check boxes can be used to limit the sources to include in the search.

The user can expand the selected chemical by pressing the tree node, which will reveal the
typical properties.

A Mixture can also be defined by dragging a chemical to the "Mixture" panel at the bottom of
the screen. If components have been added to a mixture, the user needs to define the amount
of the component in the mixture. This can be based both on Molar fraction AND on mass
fraction (use right mouse button to select either mass or moles). The parts don't have to
combine to 100 but the fraction will be corrected to the total number of parts.

After selecting <Apply> a name for the mixture needs to be provided and the Chemical
mixture will be stored in the user database.

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1.4.2 Mixtures
Mixtures are defined as combinations of chemicals. Many of the substances used in (petro)
chemical operations are no pure substances, but mixtures of multiple components, especially
hydrocarbons, and for that reason play an important role in consequence modelling.

As of RISKCURVES version 10 the functionality for definition and usage of (user defined)
combinations of chemicals components was added.

For this purpose the chemical database editor has been redesigned, now allowing to create
(define) and edit mixtures.

By default, RISKCURVES 10 contains some typical sample mixtures like "Gasoline, Kerosine,
Fuel Oil, Crude, LPG, Low Caloric natural gas". However, because these substances typically
may have locally deviating compositions, it might be required to adjust or redefine those
typical hydrocarbon mixtures.

1.4.2.1 Limitations for mixtures

RISKCURVES uses straightforward mixing rules to derive properties of mixtures. Many


properties will be calculated using an "ideal mixing rule" which means the mixture property
is derived as a ratio of the molar fraction (or mass based if the property is mass based) of
each of the components. Depending on the property value, the mixing rule may be specifically
be tuned (see calculation method properties)

One should keep in mind that these mixing rule DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT so-called
binary interaction coefficients, nor account for chemical reactions or absorption effects, and
are thus not reliable for typical polar mixtures! This particularly means that mixtures like
Ammonia/Water etc. can still hardly be modelled.

Another limitation is the fact that inside the models, we assume a CONSTANT
COMPOSITION. Especially in (pool) evaporation, one should expect the most volatile
components to be the first to evaporate, eventually leading to a time dependent changing
composition of both the evaporated mass and the remaining pool (liquid) . Please note that
RISKCURVES can not deal with a time varying compositions, so the mixture is to be
assumed to have a constant composition, even for gas and liquid phase.

Furthermore, it appeared that usage of chemical mixtures may also lead to MULTIPHASE
mixtures: one component may be solidified (lower that triple point / melting point) whereas
other components are in liquid or even vapour state. Especially because mixtures typically
have a boiling region, instead of ONE boiling point, liquid vapour equilibrium now can be a
temperature range. Typically, liquid/vapour combinations can be handled, but solid/liquid
mixtures will give a warning, and (pool) evaporation will stop if the "ideal mixing based" melting
point is reached. Smaller amount of solids are accepted in outflow and evaporation, but
viscosity and density are not corrected for occurrence of solid particles.

It also need to be mentioned that the current database equations are based on simple
(quadratic) Equations Of State (EOS): only including compressibility based on second virial
coefficient. This means that calculation in SUPERCRITICAL CONDITIONS will be unreliable,
because density calculations in this region should be based on more complex EOS.

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Warning 1: Although real world mixtures (such as gasoline) may include dozens of unique
component substances, many of these components occur only in very low fractions. Although
it is possible to include all these fragments into the mixture definition, these very low fractions
will hardly influence the thermodynamic behavior. Because of this low influence, and because
complex model calculations (such as TPDIS two phase discharge) will include iterations over
temperature dependent chemical properties, dramatically increasing calculation time, it is
advised to limit the number of components to a maximum of 10.

Warning 2: The database editor to create a mixture of every combination of components,


even practically impossible ones. One could add "Iron" to "Methane" and "Water", creating a
mixture of a solid, liquid and gas, unless at conditions above the boiling point of iron. Also,
some components will always react an cannot exist together. Be aware that any mixture can
be defined, but may lead to errors / warnings inside the model calculation. A phase check is
included a will try to catch potential mismatch in gas/liquid/solid state.

1.4.2.2 Calculation of properties of mixtures

Mixture properties will be calculated using specific mixing rules dependent on the typical
property to be evaluated. By default, "Ideal mixing" is used, however, some properties require
a different approach, as listed below:

- Explosion limits (LEL and UEL) : Are calculated using "Le Chatelier's"rule

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Introduction 35

- Viscosity: The liquid and vapour viscosity is calculated using "Kendal-Monroe" relation:

- Boiling points, Critical point temperature, Melting points or Triple point temperature: Highest
or Lowest value:

Because mixtures will have a boiling range, the mixture will start to boil at its lowest boiling
point. Also the first component arriving at its critical point will determine that we don't have a
pure liquid anymore, the first component starting to solidify will create a liquid/solid mixture.
For that reason, a boiling or critical point will be based on the lowest values, and the melting
or triple point are based on highest temperature. Inside pool evaporation, the ideal mixing
based melting point is used to determine to stop liquid evaporation. This is because in
gasoline-like mixtures, it is accepted that some cyclic of parafines may be solid, whereas the
main substance is still a liquid. In these liquid/solid mixture situations, the phase detection
routine give a warning because liquid density and viscosity will be less accurate due to some
components being in a solid state.

- Toxic properties (Probits, Threshold concentrations): Determined by "Most toxic" or


"Fractional value of most toxic":

Because there is no clear rule on how combine multiple toxic substances (toxics can have
different behavior: Narcotic or Irritating) the toxicity of a mixture will be based on the most
toxiccomponent. The most toxic component is defined as that component having the lowest
LD50 (30 min) concentration. The Probit B and Probit N will simply be taken from this
component, the Probit A and all toxic threshold will be corrected for the fraction of this (most
toxic) material available.

1.4.2.3 Evaluating mixture properties

In the Chemical Editor, selecting the specific mixtures property will illustrate both the mixing
rule used, as well as the resulting values:

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For temperature dependent properties, the graph will display all components behavior,
including the resulting mixture relation. The minimum and maximum temperatures are
determined by the highest and lowest occurring values for the individual components. Note
that this may lead to situations where the resulting mixture (red line) has a very small valid
range (because outside those boundaries one component will be either solid or gas):

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1.4.3 Usage of Projection systems


Projected coordinate systems, commonly used in GIS (Geographical Information Systems)
viewers, are coordinate systems designed to represent the spherical earth as a flat surface,
such as a printed map or a computer screen. 2D and 3D Cartesian coordinate systems
provide the mechanism for describing the geographic location and shape of features using x
and y values. Locations of geographic objects are defined relative to the origin, using the
notation (x,y), where x refers to the distance along the horizontal axis, and y refers to the
distance along the vertical axis. The origin is defined as (0,0).

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The projection system contains a strict definition in what units, with which reference system
and which visualization angle (where is North) coordinates should be displayed. Previous
version of EFFECTS and RISKCURVES would always work in local meters, and a pure
North-East oriented Y-X axis system, where the only degree of freedom was the zero-zero
coordinate.

Properties and distortion in map projections

Since the earth is spherical, a challenge faced by cartographers and GIS professionals is how
to represent the real world using a flat or planar coordinate system. To understand their
dilemma, consider how you would flatten half of a basketball; it can't be done without
distorting its shape or creating areas of discontinuity. The process of flattening the earth is
called projection, hence the term map projection. A projected coordinate system is defined on
a flat, two dimensional surface. Projected coordinates can be defined for both 2D (x,y) and 3D
(x,y,z) in which the x,y measurements represent the location on the earth's surface and z
would represent height above or below mean sea level.

Unlike a geographic coordinate system, a projected coordinate system has constant lengths,
angles, and areas across the two dimensions. However, all map projections representing the
earth's surface as a flat map, create distortions in some aspect of distance, area, shape, or
direction. Users cope with these limitations by using map projections that fit their intended
uses, geographic location, and extent.

The GIS functionality of version 10 now allows to transform information between coordinate
systems to support integration of different background maps and allows exchange with to
GOOGLE earth (save as KML, show in maps or earth) and import officially geo-referenced
background maps.

As of version 10, the software support coordinate projection systems, allowing to export and
import geographical material from various sources, without the need to reposition imported
background maps or exported results such as contours and grids.

The standard system to be used has to be defined in "Presentation settings": this offers a
huge list of standardized projection systems. The default choice here is WGS 84 Pseudo
Mercator. This choice defines the coordinate system to be used for all presentations in the
map view. To be able to derive coordinates or distances from this map, the crosshair cursor
or scale bar can be used.

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It is important to emphasis that the choice of the project projection system should be the first
thing to decide. Changing the project system after equipment locations and receiving objects
have been placed will change the values associated with the coordinate, and might lead to
rotated or even disappearing maps and locations: because there not "in view" in the changed
system. (For example, a back ground map in Dutch Amersfoort RD system will no longer show up when
the project is changed to Singapore SVY21 and will be rotated when displayed in Swedish National Grid
system).

Note that once a user start with importing a background map, the associated
projection system for this background map needs to be defined. (Except for so-called
GeoTIFFS which already contain a choice for the projection system applied) This also means
that different projections systems can be applied for different background map layers. The
global "presentation settings" project projection system defines the units, and angles that will
be used for the Map display window, potentially resulting in a rotated background map, if that
background map uses a different projection system.

For shape files, a projection system can be included, potentially defined in the associated
.PRJ extension file. For this reason it is required to keep the SHP, DBF, SHX and PRJ files
grouped together.

If the projection system of the background map (selected during import) differs from the
project setting, this can lead to the situation that this background will be presented as a
slightly tilted map, sometimes leading to somehow blurred or un-sharp images. It is advised
to choose the project setting projection system equivalent to the main background maps to be
used.

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1.4.4 New and adapted models


Many models inside RISKCURVES (and EFFECTS) 10 have been improved or revised in this
version. Below is a list of the important enhancements included:

- Outflow models: The spray release model now also contains a new "Statistical spray"
method, which is applicable for CO2 as well (which is a solid/gas equilibrium). Instead of
using one typical droplet size, this model uses a droplet size distribution, where rain-out
fraction is highly dependent of these droplet sizes and height of the release (falling height).
The model can work with different number of samples, influencing the calculation time and
accuracy of the distribution. Compared to the original "Yellow book" model, this model
results in a higher approximation of the rainout fraction. The spray release model now
contains a selection box allowing to choose "Yellow book", "Aminal rule" or "Statistical spray
method".

- The pool evaporation model will provide warnings when being applied with YAWS
chemicals, because the calculation of the Schmidt number uses critical volume which is
highly unreliable when derived for YAWS chemicals.

- Combined models outflow: All G3 "Leak" scenario now allows to used a "fixed flowrate"
instead of a calculated flowrate based on hole size and pressure. This option is available
within Gas, Liquid, Liquefied gas an Unified LOC combined models. When using this "fixed
flowrate" selection, the model will calculate a corresponding required exit pressure to obtain
this flowrate. This exit pressure is often required in many following calculations (like turbulent
jet or spray release). This fixed flowrate can be used in situations where release rate and hole
size are given, such as a specific pumping rate.

- The BLEVE model was originally only used to calculate the fireball phenomenon, although a
BLEVE abbreviation itself refers to an explosion behavior. The BLEVE fireball model can now
also calculate BLEVE overpressure, which is based on "BLEVE blast" calculation method
as published by van der Berg. (see model references). The BLEVE blast calculation is also
available as a separate explosion model.

- The BLEVE fireball model no longer uses a BLEVE mass as input, but asks for storage
conditions like vessel volume and temperature. Depending on these storage conditions a
BLEVE mass incorporated within the phenomenon will be calculated. This BLEVE mass is
based on the generally accepted rule of "3 times the adiabatic flash fraction". This is
particularly important for (pressurized) LNG tanks, were usage of the full vessel contents
would lead to overestimation of the fireball phenomenon.

- All fire models will now report both heat radiation level contours and damage contours.
Furthermore, a heat radiation footprint can be presented for pool fire and jet fire.

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- The pool fire model has been extended with a new "two zone pool fire" method, which is
based on original publication from Rew&Hulbert (see model references). Apart from this new
calculation method, separating the flame in a clear and a sooty part, the model will now
calculate the view factor using a "Discretised Radiation Method", which was already used for
jet fires in version 9. Due to this extension the pool fire can now have any shape: circular,
rectangular, a rim or a user drawn polygon pool shape. The specific burning rate, which
was previously hard-coded for chemicals listed in the Yellow Book, is now added as a
chemical dependent property. The values that are listed here are taken from the more recent
Rew&Hulbert publication. If no data is provided, the Burgess relation is used to calculate the
burning rate.

- The Multi- Energy explosion model can now also use the GAME correlations ("Guidance
on the Application of Multi Energy", see model references) to estimate the blast strength.
Instead of using a fixed ME curve number, the max. overpressure will be calculated based
congestion characteristics: "Volume Blockage Ratio", average diameter of the obstacles,
laminar burning velocity of the chemical and flame path length. These substance dependent
laminar burning velocities have been added to the chemical database as a property.

- The "explosion dispersion" model have been renamed to "flammable cloud" and now also
support presentation of 50% LFL concentration contours.

1.4.5 Support for tile servers


Apart from incorporating file based background maps, the user can also use background
which are loaded from an internet based "tile server".

Use the <right> mouse button to add background and select "Add tile server" which will open
a dialog window

Note that the usage of tile server usually requires a license of the publisher of these map tiles.

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Note that to be able to combine tile server background with user provided file based
backgrounds, the correct projection system for the file based background needs to be
provided. If this is also chosen as project projection system, tilting of pixel maps is avoided
and server tiles and file based maps can be seamlessly combined:

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2 Quick Start Guide


This guide gives you the opportunity to quickly get acquainted with the possibilities of
RISKCURVES by defining some simple examples and tasks, and explaining the operation of
the software from a users point of view.

The guide is not a detailed reference guide, nor a complete how to user manual but helps
user to quickly understand the concepts of RISKCURVES version 9.

At any time you may refer to the full technical reference manual which is provided with
RISKCURVES, or consult the built in help system by pressing <F1> for more detailed
information.

2.1 The Graphical User Interface


RISKCURVES 10 uses a tree view oriented user interface, which reflects the hierarchy of
input data. Furthermore, the screen layout resembles the GUI of the latest version of our
consequence tool EFFECTS: The left hand side of the screen is input, and right hand side
present (tabbed) results, dependent of the active (currently selected) item.

The new interface provides intuitive methods for copying and pasting user definitions (such as
scenarios) but remains uncluttered and clean. Access to standard actions, such as adding or
deleting nodes is provided by context menus (popup menu: right mouse click) and standard
shortcuts (Del, Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V).

The standard screen is divided in three parts: a (hierarchical) tree view, an input parameters
panel, and a (tabbed) result panel. The input and results panel always reflect their contents to
the active (selected) node of the tree. Switching from active node will also change the
contents of the input and result panels, eliminating the use of a present or edit button.

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The top of the main form contains typical menu items, providing conventional access to main
functions and a toolbar. The left bottom side contains the three main buttons < Clear>, <
Defaults> and < Calculate>.

2.2 The concepts behind the tree nodes


The hierarchical tree view which illustrates the input, contains some important concepts or
typical definitions, which will be introduced in more detail below.

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The top node, called Riskcurves Project is a typical placeholder of all user input. The project
corresponds to the information stored in a typical file, reflected by the name of the node. The
name of the topnode reflects the current project filename.

The caption style of a node also reflects the current state: italics imply "not calculated yet", a
red caption indicates incomplete or wrong input.

The tree view illustrates the hierarchy which is automatically occurring while defining input for
a QRA:

A calculation set is a typical input definition for a single QRA calculation: it contains all input
that influencing the result. Since users often want to compare the change in risk due a
modification (of population, scenarios), a RISKCURVES project can contain multiple
Calculations Sets in one project (and thus file).

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Results of a calculation are influenced by their general parameters, which are combined in
Calculation settings; these settings will be applied to all scenarios belonging to the
calculation set.

Furthermore, the calculation of a Societal Risk requires the definition of a population


distribution. Population is always associated to a calculation set, and can be defined as a grid
(cell based distribution) or polygons (geometric shapes containing population).

The equipment node is used to define the geographic positioning of scenarios; a typical tank,
vessel, installation or transport route can be defined at this level. Note that the background
map can be used to select a coordinate or define route points.

Each equipment can contain multiple scenarios: for vessels typical scenarios may include a
leak, a full bore rupture, and a catastrophic (instantaneous) release scenario. Each scenario
however, has its own failure frequency, describing the chance of this accident happening, and
consequence description.

RISKCURVES is capable of using its own internal (EFFECTS) consequence model, which
can be a fire model, dispersion model or explosion model, but users can also define a
damage definition. These Damage definitions can be used to enter results from consequence
calculations from external models, or use damage zone definitions which may be
standardised or prescribed by authorities.

Copying and Pasting of Nodes

The use of the hierarchical tree node allows the possibility to copy scenarios (same leak on
another installation), copy equipments (same set of scenarios belonging to a vessel copied to
another location) , or even copy entire calculation sets (same calculation but with altered
frequency, population etc).

A calculation set is a combination of system setting, a meteorological definition, population


and accident (Loss of Containment) scenarios definitions for which Individual Risk and
Societal Risk are being calculated.

A calculation set will have results in terms of Individual Risk Contours and Societal Risk
Graphs and Societal Risk Maps.

A calculation set is a typical input definition for a single QRA calculation: it contains all input
that influencing the result. Since users often want to compare the change in risk due a
modification (of population, scenarios), RISKCURVES can contain multiple Calculations Sets
in one project (and thus file).

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A calculation set always contains the sub nodes Calculation settings, a Meteo data node,
Population (if societal risk calculation is required), stationary equipment and transport
equipment, because these contents together determine the result of a calculation.

A calculation set has a few settings, allowing to either include or exclude the societal risk
calculation, societal risk maps and consequence risk contours.

Calculation settings is a typical collector or grouping node.

It doesnt have its own parameters, but combines several groups of parameters, to be applied
to all input contained in a calculation set. Typical parameters are Accuracy describing
parameters influencing calculation accuracy and speed, Vulnerability settings describing the
relation between physical phenomena and damage (lethality), and Environment parameters,
describing ambient temperature, humidity, solar radiation etc. for the typical location.

It is also possible to calculate a Consequence Risk, which give the risk of exceeding a
specific consequence level threshold. If this option is activated, additional "consequence risk
threshold levels" need to be set.

The meteorological data definition contains the choice for the meteorological station to be
used. Any meteorological data set contains probabilities for typical weather classes (Pasquill
stability class, wind-speed, day or night) occurring at the location (see meterological
distribution). The number of weather classes defined will determine how many damage
definitions / consequence models are contained under a scenario (e.g only D5 and F2 or 6
different classes!).

The probability of a risk occurring at a specific location is highly influenced by the probability of
the wind blowing from the accident location towards that location. In order to take this into
account, a meteorological definition has to be supplied. Meteo data consists of the definition of
typical Pasquill stability class with a wind speed (e.g. D5 or F2), the probability of that class
occurring, and the probability for the wind-directions for that class and is applicable for the
region where the scenarios are to be defined. This data is usually supplied by meteorological
station at airports etc. and can be predefined for met-stations at your country.

A new meteo-station definition can be added under menu Edit, Option default meteo
distribution and the browse button:

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All definitions that are provided in Options can be selected in the combobox in the input panel of the Meteo data node:

Once a meteo station location has been entered, the red label will turn to black, illustrating
that acceptable input has been provided.

Note that the provided (Dutch) meteo station definitions all contain 6 weather classes, but it is
also possible to use only two any other number of different Pasquill classes. Using only two
classes imply that calculation time will be reduced since the consequence models need to
perform two calculations.

The spatial distribution of occurance of specific wind directions can be visualised in a


windrose view

Population definition node contains the definition of population by means of grids (a matrix
like definition of cells) or polygons (area definition with number of inhabitants).

Population can be added by using the Population Import Wizard, or by manually adding a
polygon and defining an are with population. See defining Population.

The total cumulation of all grids and polygons under the grouping node will be used to create a
total population grid, used within the calculation sets Societal Risk calculation.

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Both day an night grid will use a separate "Inside fraction" determining the fraction of the
people that are inside houses and have a some degree of protection (see vulnerability
settings)

When using "temporary polygons", it is possible to use a dedicated "inside fraction" and
"utilisation fraction" (a presence factor).

Temporary population can be used to include the presence of large crowds (e.g. festivals,
sport events) during a FRACTION of the time. This is particular relevant if large numbers of
people are outside (thus unprotected).

Note: When using many (say more than 10) temporary polygons that can be exposed to the
same event (when they are close to one another, so within the potential lethality footprint of a
single event), this procedure can get time consuming because all potential combinations of
these areas need to be evaluated!!. As an example, just for three temporary population areas
we need to evaluate: A and B and C exposed, A and B exposed, A and C exposed, B and C
exposed, only A, only B , only C, and no area (just base population) exposed, where every
combination has its own probability of occurrence!

Equipment: a location or route on which scenarios are being analysed (distinguishing


STATIONARY and TRANSPORT equipment). Note that these nodes can be expanded, they
are placeholders or grouping nodes for a list of coordinates, or routes.

Scenario: a Loss Of Containment scenario occurring at an equipment (either a stationary


location or a transport route), which has a specific failure frequency, and contains
consequence definitions: a description of the scenario in terms of substance, quantities,
release situation or resulting damage.

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Once stationary equipment locations or transport equipment routes have been defined, typical
LOC (Loss Of Containment) scenarios belonging to the equipment can be added. Select the
equipment and press <Right Mouse><Add scenario> and select the type of scenario to be
added from the branch of models:

EFFECT models are consequence calculations performed by single phenomena


consequence models. They can either be based on atmospheric dispersion of toxic or
flammable gasses or based on heat radiation (Bleve , poolfire of jetfire phenomena).

Combined models support multiple phenomena; if a material is both flammable and toxic, or
direct and delayed iginition can occur, these combined LOC model chains will distinguish
several phenomena.

The combined models are supplied for Gaseous, Liquid and Two phase materials, and are
available for specific release cases. A release can be either an instantaneous release (called
G1 scenario in the Purple Book), a release within 10 minutes (G2 scenario) or a leak scenario
with a specific hole size (G3 scenario). If the user doesnt know the state of , one can select
the Unified LOC model, which determines the state itself, and provides a choice to evaluate

Damage definition s can be used to enter pre-calculated consequence areas. The damage
models are also dedicated to a specific phenomenon.

Another possibility to add scenario is by using the floating panel: Select an equipment node,
and hover the mouse over the white line on the left border of the RISKCURVES window. A
model selection panel will unfold, illustrating different possibilities by family name:

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After the scenario has been added, the definition itself needs to be provided.

A scenario definition consists of two elements: a frequency part and a consequence part.

The tree visualises this as two nodes of the scenario: the scenario node and the
corresponding (consequence) modelset. For a scenario, main parameters are base
frequency (expressed as chance of occurrence per year), a possible correction factor (which
can be used to represent risk reduction actions), and a daytime fraction. The daytime fraction
can be used to express the situation that an activity only takes place during day or night time.
By default, this fraction should be the average occurrence of daytime situation, according to
the meteorological data definition (e.g. for Netherlands 44% is daytime). If another fraction is
used, this implies that the activity is predominantly shifted into day or night time.

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Combined models also require entering a fraction for direct ignition, delayed ignition, BLEVE
and explosion phenomenon. For single phenomenon models, is it assumed that this fraction
is already included in the base frequency. Pressing the < Defaults> button will quickly enter
feasible frequency / probability values here, but is not advised because failure frequencies
tend to be very specific for the typical situation.

A Modelset is the placeholder for the actual consequence definition. It contains either a
damage definition or consequence calculation, which is defined for a number meteorological
conditions

It is possible to define altered input values for specific weather class conditions by selecting
the weatherclass from the combobox.

A cumulation set can be used to make a dedicated cumulation of risk sources that does not
contain all equipment or all scenario's, presented corresponding SR or IR results.

Very often one is not interested in the fully accumulated results of all scenarios, but want to
know the contribution of a specific subset of scenario, e.g. only flammable scenarios or
accumulation of specific vessels or equipments. Such a subset can be made using a
Cumulation Set. Define a new set by selecting the Cumulation sets node and selecting
<Right Mouse> <Add cumulation set>. Give it a descriptive name (e.g. Only Flammables)
and use the checkboxes to select which equipments or separate scenarios should be
incorporated within this accumulation. After pressing the <Calculate> button, which only
takes a few seconds, the subset results will be presented.

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It is important to realise that a Cumulation set can also be used to ADD different calculation
sets. This way, it is possible to combine calculations for different parts of a site, for example
containing different production processes, and add them all together in one result as a
cumulation. This cumulation result will include Iso Risk contours, Societal risk graphs and SR
maps.

A Comparison set allows to compare results for Calculations Sets or Cumulation sets; it will
provide multiple graphs and contours.

RISKCURVES has the possibility to perform multiple QRA calculations, and compare results.
This can be used to validate the influence of a changing population, or generally: a changed
risk situation.

To perform multiple QRA calculations, the most rigorous way would be to copy and paste an
entire calculation set: select the node for the calculation set, press <Ctrl-C> and <Ctrl-V> (or
use edit copy / paste) and a complete calculation set will be added. Again, use descriptive
names for the different calculation sets, e.g. Larger storage capacity or Including new
Urban Development population and modify the contents of the copied calculation set
accordingly.

After calculation (which may take some time again), these results can be compared using the
comparison Set.

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However, in many cases it is possible to add a new or modified scenario to the standard
calculation set and use a Cumulation set to exclude this from being added to the result. Since
all defined Cumulation Sets are also included within a Comparison set, this can be used to
verify the influence of a modified scenario, without the need to copy the entire calculation set.
Realise that copying a full calculation set will result in big projects with many duplicate
scenarios.

To start comparing different calculation sets or cumulation sets, define a Comparison set by
selecting the node and selecting <Right mouse> <Add comparison set> . All calculation sets
and cumulation sets of the project will be visible here. Use the checkboxes to include or
exclude a set. When comparing individual risk contours, only one level of interest will be
shown. This particular level can be modified within the presentation settings.

2.3 Quick start: Create a new project


The first step in performing a QRA with RISKCURVES is creating a project.

Start RISKCURVES (see Installing the software and starting RISKCURVES) and choose
File | New from the main menu or press the New project toolbar button. The user is
asked for a project name, and an empty project tree will be created.

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To create and run a QRA calculation, the following steps need to be taken:

1. Add a background map

2. Verify Calculation settings

3. Define meteorological conditions

4. Define population distribution

5. Define Stationary or Transport equipment locations

6. Add Scenarios to equipment location

7. Entering consequence model set data

8. Performing the risk calculation

9. Evaluate results of the calculation

10.Optionally, define Cumulation sets , to make a subset of scenarios

11.Optionally, define Comparison sets , to compare different calculations or cumulations

12.Optionally, define Analysis points, to compare risk at specific locations

2.3.1 1 Add a background map


The use of a topographic background maps is very useful and highly recommended.

Goto the background node and select < Right mouse> < Add background>.

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This process is performed on the project tree node "Background maps". Use the right mouse
button and select "Add background map" from the popup-menu.

This will invoke an "Open file dialog" allowing to browse and select a file of the currently
supported formats: PNG, JPG, TIF, BMP, SHP and DXF.

Note that SHP and DXF are vector based files and already contain a dimensioning coordinate
system, but may require the selection of a projection system. In this case, a blue warning "No
coordinate system found" is displayed, and a corresponding projection system needs to be
selected. By default the "project projection" is proposed, but the system should be match the
internally used coordinate system. If the shape file is accompanied with a PRJ file, containing
projection information, no additional choice is required.

If a pixel oriented file (PNG, JPG, TIF or BMP) is selected, the user MUST select a projection
system an MAY need to also provide dimensions of the map. If a georeference file is found,
the suggested extent will already be shown.

The dimensioning of the map can be checked with the scale bar (which can be moved) or by
using the "show coordinates" checkbox option in the lower left corner.

Note that pixel formats require the use of a ESRI worldfile to be able to determine scale and
location of the image, whereas the vector formats SHP and DWG already include scale and
position information.

RISKCURVES supports the use of multiple backgrounds, so a background can be composed


of adjacent or overlapping images.

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If additional Georeferencing is required, this can be activated by selecting < Georeference by


using two point"> or < Georeference by length> . Refer to the Geo-referencing Images
paragraph of the manual for additional information about the built-in Georeferencing methods.

Apart from incorporating file based background maps, the user can also use background
which are loaded from an internet based "tile server".

Use the <right> mouse button to add background and select "Add tile server" which will open
a dialog window

Note that the usage of tile server usually requires a license of the publisher of these map tiles.

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Note that to be able to combine tile server background with user provided file based
backgrounds, the correct projection system for the file based background needs to be
provided. If this is also chosen as project projection system, tilting of pixel maps is avoided
and server tiles and file based maps can be seamlessly combined:

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2.3.2 2 Verify calculation settings


Without any additional user input, RISKCURVES will perform calculation with default settings
for Accuracy Vulnerability and Environment parameters.

The Environment block is most likely to be modified since it describes typical environmental
conditions applicable for the region were the QRA is to be performed: parameters like
ambient temperature, water temperature, humidity, surface roughness, solar radiation flux,
latitude and cloud cover are country and even location dependent.

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The values that are entered here will be "pushed" into each modelset that will perform a
consequence calculation.

One can define or alter default environment to be used when creating a new project by using
menu Edit Options Default environment.

2.3.3 3 Define meteorological conditions


The probability of a risk occurring at a specific location is highly influenced by the probability of
the wind blowing from the accident location towards that location. In order to take this into
account, a meteorological definition has to be supplied. Meteo data consists of the definition of
typical Pasquill stability class with a wind speed (e.g. D5 or F2), the probability of that class
occurring, and the probability for the wind-directions for that class and is applicable for the
region where the scenarios are to be defined. This data is usually supplied by meteorological
station at airports etc. and can be predefined for met-stations at your country.

A new meteo-station definition can be added under menu Edit, Option default meteo
distribution and the browse button:

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All definitions that are provided in Options can be selected in the combobox in the input panel of the Meteo data node:

Once a meteo station location has been entered, the red label will turn to black, illustrating
that acceptable input has been provided.

Note that the provided (Dutch) meteo station definitions all contain 6 weather classes, but it is
also possible to use only two any other number of different Pasquill classes. Using only two
classes imply that calculation time will be reduced since the consequence models need to
perform two calculations.

The spatial distribution of occurance of specific wind directions can be visualised in a


windrose view

2.3.4 4 Define population distribution


This step is only required if a user wants to calculate societal risk, which includes risk of
actual exposed population. Population always distinguishes separate population during day
and population at night definitions.

To add population, select the <Total population> node and use < Right mouse> <Import
Population> or < Add Population Polygon>.

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Note that as of version 9, it is possible to combine multiple grids or polygons; the resulting end
population will be created on the base of ALL grids an polygons defined in the yotal population
node, using the defined population grid cell size.

Population import Wizard

A population grid can be imported from an ASCII based grid, ESRI grid format (provided by
local authorities) or the previous RISKCURVES Vs 7 .POP file.

Apart from grid based input files, population can be also created from polygons loaded a
shape file.

To import an external grid, select the "import population" from the popup menu at a population
node.

Follow the suggestions by either selecting a Population Grid (cell based distribution) or
select Population Polygons, which are separate area definitions that can be edited
separately after importing. When using highly detailed shape files, containing real "building"
descriptions, it is advised to translate this into a grid (because of the huge number of shapes
these files can contain), when using "region based" shapes, it can be useful to import these
as separate polygons.

For grids, the type of file to import needs to be defined: it can be an ESRI grid , ASCII / CSV
table, or created from a Shape file.

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An ESRI grid file can be either an ASCII table (GRD, ASC, CSV) or a proprietary binary FLT
format. An ESRI grid contains a header, describing the dimensions (number of rows,
columns and cell size) and location (position of lower left corner) of the grid, followed by the
grid values themselves. The header also contains a <NoData> value, which is treated as
empty cell, this value is often defined as as -999 or -9999.

An ASCII table assumes the data to be available as separate lines, containing X coordinate,
Y coordinate, Population, possibly separated by spaces or other delimiting characters. The
import screen offer the possibility to define the decimal separator, and a field separator
character, and to skip one or more header lines.

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An important selection for the import of a grid or a shape file involves the choice of the
projection system which is applied for the coordinates within this grid file.

This always has to fit exactly to the definition used within the grid or shapes.

A SHAPE file contains descriptions of polygons with population info about those regions:
When using a shape file as a grid, all shapes will be combined into one grid based definition.
This requires the definition of a grid cell size and selection of fields for daytime / nighttime
population.

After importing the file, the boundary definitions of the grid can be provided by defining lower
left and upper right corner of the grid:

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Population Polygons

A population polygon is a definition of areas with specific population information, they can be
created by drawing a shape on the background map or importing a shapes from a SHAPE
file.

Importing polygons from SHAPE file

When importing a shape file as polygons, all shapes will be added separately as population
polygons.When defining by means of a shape file, the fields containing relevant info in the
shape tables need to be defined. Select the name of the field containing the description of the
region, and the field that contains the number of people (day/night). Furthermore, the
population value provided can contain a density (value is population per area: select the
corresponding unit by using the right mouse button on the units description) or an absolute
number of people.

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After importing polygons, it is possible to edit the shapes, and potentially define specific areas
as "temporary population", which implies that a specific utilization fraction can be entered.
These Temporary populations are intended for usage in special situations like festivals,
sport events or other situations where non-permanent presence of large amounts of people
can occur during a FRACTION of the time. This is particular relevant if large crowds are
outside and have no protection by houses.

The usage of multiple "temporary" population polygons also implies that that multiple areas
can be affected by an event, leading to the situation of combination of victims. The current
calculation procedure also checks for potential occurrence of MULTIPLE Temporary (even if
they have 100% presence) populations, and accounts for the potential PROBABILITY of
multiple polygons being exposed, with potential COMBINED NUMBER OF VICTIMS.

Note: When using many (say more than 10) temporary polygons that can be exposed to the
same event (when they are close to one another, so within the potential lethality footprint of a
single event), this procedure can get time consuming because all potential combinations of
these areas need to be evaluated!!. As an example, just for three temporary population areas
we need to evaluate: A and B and C exposed, A and B exposed, A and C exposed, B and C
exposed, only A, only B , only C, and no area (just base population) exposed, where every
combination has its own probability of occurrence!

Manual definition:

Zoom in on the area of interest (use mouse wheel for zooming, right mouse drag for moving
the map) and select the edit button. Start pinpointing coordinates on the map, thus defining
the shape (polygon) of the habituated area. Select the edit button when definition is finished
and enter the number of people within this area during day and during night. For standard
usage select is temporary as NO.

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Give the polygon or grid a specific and recognizable name: select the population polygon, and
click on the text population polygon or press <F2> to be able to modify the name of the
branch.

Note: Renaming a tree node can also be used on Calculation Set, Equipment or Scenario!

2.3.5 5 Define Stationary or Transport equipment locations


Select the Stationary equipment branch and use < Right mouse> <Add Equipment> .
Rename the Equipment using <F2> or selecting the string and provide a useful descriptive
name.

Select the map view, zoom in to the location where the equipment is placed, hover the mouse
to the exact location and select <Right Mouse> < Set Release point> . The current world
coordinates of the mouse will be entered in the input fields X coordinateand Y-coordinate of
release. Select the Show release point toolbar button to illustrate the location with a
label and cross on the map.

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Transport equipment: Select the Transport equipment branch and press <Right Mouse><Add
equipment> and again rename the Equipment using <F2> or selecting the string and
provide a useful descriptive name.

. Select the map view and zoom in to the area where the route is to be defined. Press the
Edit button in the transport equipment input panel and start pinpointing route points on the
map. Watch all route coordinates being added to the table when selecting route points on the
map.

Finish the route definition by pressing End Edit again. Note that it is still possible to manually
modify the coordinates. The correction factor column can be used for switches on railroad
tracks or locations where a local altered failure frequency needs to be applied.

2.3.6 6 Add Scenarios to equipment location


Once stationary equipment locations or transport equipment routes have been defined, typical
LOC (Loss Of Containment) scenarios belonging to the equipment can be added. Select the
equipment and press <Right Mouse><Add scenario> and select the type of scenario to be
added from the branch of models:

EFFECT models are consequence calculations performed by single phenomena


consequence models. They can either be based on atmospheric dispersion of toxic or
flammable gasses or based on heat radiation (Bleve , poolfire of jetfire phenomena).

Combined models support multiple phenomena; if a material is both flammable and toxic, or
direct and delayed iginition can occur, these combined LOC model chains will distinguish
several phenomena.

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The combined models are supplied for Gaseous, Liquid and Two phase materials, and are
available for specific release cases. A release can be either an instantaneous release (called
G1 scenario in the Purple Book), a release within 10 minutes (G2 scenario) or a leak scenario
with a specific hole size (G3 scenario). If the user doesnt know the state of , one can select
the Unified LOC model, which determines the state itself, and provides a choice to evaluate

Damage definition s can be used to enter pre-calculated consequence areas. The damage
models are also dedicated to a specific phenomenon.

Another possibility to add scenario is by using the floating panel: Select an equipment node,
and hover the mouse over the white line on the left border of the RISKCURVES window. A
model selection panel will unfold, illustrating different possibilities by family name:

After the scenario has been added, the definition itself needs to be provided.

A scenario definition consists of two elements: a frequency part and a consequence part.

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The tree visualises this as two nodes of the scenario: the scenario node and the
corresponding (consequence) modelset. For a scenario, main parameters are base
frequency (expressed as chance of occurrence per year), a possible correction factor (which
can be used to represent risk reduction actions), and a daytime fraction. The daytime fraction
can be used to express the situation that an activity only takes place during day or night time.
By default, this fraction should be the average occurrence of daytime situation, according to
the meteorological data definition (e.g. for Netherlands 44% is daytime). If another fraction is
used, this implies that the activity is predominantly shifted into day or night time.

Combined models also require entering a fraction for direct ignition, delayed ignition, BLEVE
and explosion phenomenon. For single phenomenon models, is it assumed that this fraction
is already included in the base frequency. Pressing the < Defaults> button will quickly enter
feasible frequency / probability values here, but is not advised because failure frequencies
tend to be very specific for the typical situation.

2.3.7 7 Entering consequence model set data


Dependent on the type of model (single phenomenon model, combined model or damage
definition) a dedicated input parameter list will be presented. An first example is provided for a
BLEVE damage definition:

This input is defined by a fireball radius (100% lethality inside and outside), a 35 kW/m2 radius
(same lethality as within fireball), and a lethality versus distance response table which defines
unprotected outside lethality.

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This lethality table needs to be entered in a logical ascending distance / descending lethality
order.

If input is invalid, the table caption will turn red.

Note that the weatherclass combobox can be used to define either ALL (default) or ONE
specific meteorological condition. Start with entering all (Default), and IF specific damage
distances occur (such as expected in case of toxic dispersion phenomenon), select
distinguished weather classes and enter dedicated distances.

Note: If a weather class specific parameter is displayed in a blue color, it means that it is
identical to the default situation. This illustrates the fact that in the background this parameter
is linked to the default model (see EFFECTS for details about model linking)

A consequence model definition is basically identical to an EFFECTS model definition: the


input panel displays all relevant input parameters. In fact, it is also possible to copy/paste
EFFECT end models into RISKCURVES. (An end models implies that the model ends up
with any lethality information, eg. a single outflow model is no end model)

The number of required input parameters for an EFFECTS model can be changed depending
of the setting of complexity: Simple, Normal or Expert. The three toolbar buttons on top of the

main window will define this state. It is advised to start using Simple mode,
which only requires main parameters (Chemical, amount of material released) to be entered,
and only use Normal or Expert if one wants to divert from standard method. In Expert
mode, all parameters that influence the result of the calculation are shown, providing the
possibility to alter parameters like ambient temperatures or other default value parameters
defined in System Settings.

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If an EFFECTS model has been selected as scenario type, this consequence model will be
calculated for a number of weather conditions, equal to the typical Pasquill classes defines in
the meteo data node. This results in a Set of models in which every model can have specific
input. The weather class dedicated input can be accessed by selecting the appropriate
weather class from the combobox.

Note that the way the scenario node is displayed, reflects the current state:

- a red scenario means data is incomplete or incorrect

- an italic presentation means that input has changed and the node needs to be (re)
calculated

- a blue presentation of a specific weather class model implies that the data is linked to
the default weather class model

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2.3.8 8 Performing the risk calculation


After defining scenarios a calculation can be performed. The calculation can be started by
pressing the <Calculate> button on the bottom of the screen. Dependent of the number of
(modified or uncalculated) scenarios, a calculation can take seconds, minutes or hours for
large (hundreds) scenario sets.

Note that consequence (EFFECTS) models will not be recalculated if only a location or
frequency has been changed, a scenario will not be recalculated if only location changed, and
equipment is skipped if nothing has changed etc. Only modified input needs to be redone,
where the calculation of a societal risk, which is a accumulation of several scenario/
equipment contributions, will always be redone.

If for some reason, a user want to force a FULL RECALCULATION of the entire project, the
combination <Alt><Calculate> can be used will will trigger a full recalculation.

During calculation, several progress bars will be presented, to give an idea about the current
progress status. If for some reason, a scenario or equipment is skipped, the calculation will
proceed with the next scenario, and store the result of previous calculation!

2.3.9 9 Evaluate results of the calculation


After the calculation is finished, the Log tab will display any abnormalities, using a Yellow color
for warnings, and Red for errors. The severity will also be represented by the LED icon on
top of the log window.

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Note that the contents of the Log window reflects the current active node. If a calculation set
is active, all Logs of underlying nodes will be included. To see dedicated results for one
equipment, or even one scenario, this node has to be activated (selected).

The same selection method applies for all other results: specific results from equipments
(Individual risk contours and FN curve) can be evaluated by selecting the equipment, a
scenario has results in terms of individual risk per wind-direction (FX graphs) or even
calculated consequence distances can be evaluated by selecting the required weather class.

Main results of course can be found on Calculation Set level: The complete set of scenarios
and equipments will result in a Individual Risk Contour map, and Societal Risk curves.

The Societal risk of transport scenarios is depicted in transport FN cuvres, applicable for a
section of the route. These graphs are part of the results of individual transport equipments
(per route).

2.3.10 10 The use of Cumulation sets


Very often one is not interested in the fully accumulated results of all scenarios, but want to
know the contribution of a specific subset of scenario, e.g. only flammable scenarios or
accumulation of specific vessels or equipments. Such a subset can be made using a
Cumulation Set. Define a new set by selecting the Cumulation sets node and selecting
<Right Mouse> <Add cumulation set>. Give it a descriptive name (e.g. Only Flammables)
and use the checkboxes to select which equipments or separate scenarios should be
incorporated within this accumulation. After pressing the <Calculate> button, which only
takes a few seconds, the subset results will be presented.

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It is important to realise that a Cumulation set can also be used to ADD different calculation
sets. This way, it is possible to combine calculations for different parts of a site, for example
containing different production processes, and add them all together in one result as a
cumulation. This cumulation result will include Iso Risk contours, Societal risk graphs and SR
maps.

2.3.11 11 The use of Comparison sets


RISKCURVES has the possibility to perform multiple QRA calculations, and compare results.
This can be used to validate the influence of a changing population, or generally: a changed
risk situation.

To perform multiple QRA calculations, the most rigorous way would be to copy and paste an
entire calculation set: select the node for the calculation set, press <Ctrl-C> and <Ctrl-V> (or
use edit copy / paste) and a complete calculation set will be added. Again, use descriptive
names for the different calculation sets, e.g. Larger storage capacity or Including new
Urban Development population and modify the contents of the copied calculation set
accordingly.

After calculation (which may take some time again), these results can be compared using the
comparison Set.

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However, in many cases it is possible to add a new or modified scenario to the standard
calculation set and use a Cumulation set to exclude this from being added to the result. Since
all defined Cumulation Sets are also included within a Comparison set, this can be used to
verify the influence of a modified scenario, without the need to copy the entire calculation set.
Realise that copying a full calculation set will result in big projects with many duplicate
scenarios.

To start comparing different calculation sets or cumulation sets, define a Comparison set by
selecting the node and selecting <Right mouse> <Add comparison set> . All calculation sets
and cumulation sets of the project will be visible here. Use the checkboxes to include or
exclude a set. When comparing individual risk contours, only one level of interest will be
shown. This particular level can be modified within the presentation settings.

2.3.12 12 The use of Analysis points


For every calculation or cumulation set, analysis points can be defined, providing the
possibility to analyse the contribution of scenarios at specific locations.

An analysis point can be added to any calculation or cumulation set. To add an analysis point,
use < Right mouse> < Add analysis point> on the analysis points node, or use < Right
mouse> , < Add analysis point> on top of the map to pinpoint a coordinate from the map.

The results will be visible after a calculation, and presented in a table in the report tab.

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3 The user interface in detail


RISKCURVES uses a hierarchical tree view, which is also similar to the latest EFFECTS
user interface.

The screen consists of standard elements like a menu bar and toolbar, and a main screen
which is divided in three zones: the project tree, the input panel and the result panel.

The project tree depicts the various components that are required to perform a QRA
calculation. The tree support cut and paste functionality and the object hierarchy illustrates
how LOC equipments are part of a calculation, scenarios take place at an equipment etc.

The input of the active (currently selected) node of the tree is presented in the input panel.
The contents of this panel will change dependent of the type of node that is selected.

The same dependency applies for the result panel, which will always display results (report,
graphs, maps and log) for the currently selected node.

The figure below shows an arbitrary user interface screen that might be visible during any
stage of a calculation and with all possible options enabled. The user interface has been
designed in such a way that it follows the rules of a standard Windows user interface as
close as possible.

Click on the Item letters or screen area to get detailed information about the control item:

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The figure above shows the new Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the software. The arrows
point to the most important controls of the GUI. All areas/controls are indicated with a letter
("A"..."L"). This letter is also used in the paragraphs to identify which part of the GUI is
described.

A. Menu bar
B. Toolbar
C. Project tree
D. Model input panel
E. Results panel tabs
F. Graph display panel
G. (Autohide) Scenario selection panel
H. Command buttons
I. Model input parameters
J. Profile selection box
K. Profile expert button

Furthermore, other screens that can be selected through the Results screen tabs are:

Contour display panel


Report panel
Model Log panel

3.1 Menu bar


The menu bar contains the menu items to control the main functions of the user interface and
is set up in the way a common MS-Windows application is supposed to work.

The menu is separated into 5 main categories:

Menu File . .

The File menu provides access to:

New: Creates a new empty project. Clears the memory.

Open: Opens an existing project.

ReOpen: Shows recent files and allows to select any of these recent files.

Save: Stores the current project contents to disk

Save as: Stores current contents under a new name

Menu Edit

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These menu items provide standard clipboard functionality (Cut, Copy, and Paste) for all
items.

As a clipboard can only hold one type of data at a time, you will have the possibility to copy
either the profile, or the (GIS screen) Contours or the Report as HTML data to the clipboard.
These can be pasted in the normal way in any document.

The copy functionality is particular useful when copying parts of the project tree, such as
complete scenarios or even calculation sets. Copying and pasting can also be used between
two instances (running applications) of RISKCURVES, and allows to use population
definitions, equipments or scenarios from one project to another. It is also possible to copy
paste end models from EFFECTS (version 10) into RISKCURVES 10. This is only feasible for
so-called end models: models that end up with lethality levels. In general: all models that are
available within RISKCURVES consequence calculation core have support for copy / paste
from EFFECTS. (A release model is NOT an end model). This feature may become handy if
one wants to evaluate the behaviour of a specific model within EFFECTS before using it in a
QRA.

Another important item in Edit is Options.

Selecting this item will show the options screen, where users can define default settings,
chemical database, default units, environmental, vulnerability and accuracy settings. A
description of this feature is given in options description

Menu View

Allows to enable disable the view of different segments of the toolbar, select the complexity
level or activate graphic or map view features.

Menu Tools

This Tools menu allows access for the following tools:

Mass and Volume calculator


Mortality / probit calculator
The remote dongle update program
The RISKCURVES Vs7 to Vs9 project convertor
The Chemicals convertor

Menu Help

Provides access to the help file, help file table of contents and version release notes.

3.2 Toolbar
The toolbar contains buttons for quick access to common functions and is divided in several
groups dependent upon their functionality.

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From left to right it contains buttons for:

Group 1: File and print

New project
Open an existing project
Save a project
Save a project as

Group 2: Copy & paste

These are the standard cut, copy & paste tools. Note that the contents of the clipboard is
determined by the currently active region of the screen. For a profile or contour, the clipboard
contents will be an image, when the active component is a node, complete nodes of the
project tree can be copied and pasted.

Instead of the buttons, the standard windows Ctrl-C (copy) and Ctrl-V (paste) hotkeys are
often more convenient.

Group 3: User complexity settings

These three buttons can be used to switch complexity level of the list of input.

Note that especially for the combined models, the list of input can be extensive. Because
many of the input parameters will always be used in default setting, or are taken form the
environment or system default parameters, the user required input can be simplified to much
less input parameters.

Currently, three levels of complexity are supported: Simple, Normal and Expert mode. The
last mode will always show all input parameters that influence the calculation.

Group 4: Profile tools

A profile graph can be the societal risk FN curve, but might also present consequence model
results such as a time or distance depending values, as heat radiation versus distance, or
concentration versus time.

Cross hair cursor: provides the possibility to show a crosshair, which will illustrate the
X,Y values of the point under the cursor

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Ruler: activates the ruler, which can be used to measure the distance between two
points

Group 5: Contour tools

The grid tool shows a grid definition in the map, which can be handy for reading out
positions
Will show the location of equipment locations and analysis points. This is an on/off
toggle button. Any equipment location or analysis point can be illustrated with a dot on
the contour image. Transport routes will also be displayed as a line in the same map
layer.

Show crosshair: Illustrates the coordinate of the location at the cursor, and if a "grid"
layer is active (selected in the legend) , provides information about the value of the location at
the cursor
Geo-reference the background image. Will invoke a screen that can be used to
georeference a pixel based background.
A pixel oriented graph needs to have a definition for the size and positioning of the image
in real world coordinates. For this purpose, RISKCURVES uses the ESRI standard
georeference method which requires a wordfile definition for every image. Currently
supported pixel formats are JPG, TIFF, BMP and PNG files.
Ruler: activates the contour ruler, which is a measuring device to be used for obtaining
absolute sizes of clouds, areas, or distances to objects on a background map.

Transect: provides the possibility to determine the individual risk along a line section. By
defining a transect line (click and drag the cursor to define a track) the transect panel,
which is located below the legend panel, will display the risk along this track.

Lock zoom: this toggle button can be used to force the map view to keep the same field
of view on every component.

Full extent: rescales the map to the full extent (all objects visible)

3.3 Project tree


The project tree contains a list of all equipment and corresponding scenarios in the project.

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The user may switch between different active nodes by simply clicking on the appropriate
branch of the tree. Selecting the node will consequently display its properties, and its results
or reports in the result panel

Node that some nodes are grouping nodes, and need to be expanded before the actual
contents is visible. Stationary equipment is a placeholder for all typical point sources,
whereas transport equipment contains scenario's to be defined as a line source: pipeline,
railroads, highways etc.

Node in Italics or red

The caption of the node may illustrate the current state of the contents: red indicating
incomplete (not all values entered) or providing an error after a calculation, an italic caption
means that this node has not been calculated with the current contents (it may be new, or
changed after the previous calculation).

Renaming nodes

Most nodes can be renamed, and given an appropriate name. Select the node and press
<F2> or select the node and subsequently select the label of the node.

It is strongly suggested to use descriptive names for equipment and scenario's, e.g. "Storage
vessel" and "Instantaneous rupture" scenario.

The sorting of the nodes is always based on alphabetical order. This can be used to give a
logical ordering by adding numbers in the name of the model.

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Copying and Pasting scenario's

Any non-grouping node support a copy-paste action. Use Edit ..Copy / Edit.. Paste (or <Ctrl>-
C and <Ctrl>-V) while a node has been selected.This will create a copy of the node,
containing the same input as the original.

It is also possible to copy an entire calculation set containing all scenario's. This can be very
convenient when creating alternative development situations. One calculationset might
contain the current population, whereas a second set includes new urban development
plans.
Furthermore, a new calculationset will be included in a comparison set, allowing to display
results from multiple calculation situations.

Removing equipments or scenarios from the project


A node can simply be deleted by pressing the <Del> button while the node is selected. A
dialog will ask for a confirmation for the removal of the node.

Hotkeys for collapsing or expanding nodes

The use of the numerical keypad keys + (plus: expand to previous) or - (minus: collapse)
can be used to expand or collapse the tree quickly. The * (star) will expand the full tree.

3.4 CalculationSet definition


A calculation set is the placeholder for a complete QRA calculation, creating individual risk
results and possibly societal risk results.

A calculation set is a combination of system setting, a meteorological definition, population


and accident (Loss of Containment) scenarios definitions for which Individual Risk and
Societal Risk are being calculated.

A calculation set will have results in terms of Individual Risk Contours and Societal Risk
Graphs and Societal Risk Maps.

A calculation set is a typical input definition for a single QRA calculation: it contains all input
that influencing the result. Since users often want to compare the change in risk due a
modification (of population, scenarios), RISKCURVES can contain multiple Calculations Sets
in one project (and thus file).

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A calculation set always contains the sub nodes Calculation settings, a Meteo data node,
Population (if societal risk calculation is required), stationary equipment and transport
equipment, because these contents together determine the result of a calculation.

A calculation set has a few settings, allowing to either include or exclude the societal risk
calculation, societal risk maps and consequence risk contours.

In standard situations, one usually works with ONE calculation set. However, it is possible to
use multiple (independent) calculation sets within one project (thus a RISKCURVES project
file). Multiple calculation sets can be used to compare different calculations, e.g. one with a
base population and one with modified population due to urban development plans.

Calculation set parameters :

Perform societal Risk calculation: Is a Yes/No choice: A Societal Risk Calculation, resulting
in so-called Societal Risk graphs, (FN curves) requires the availability of population
information. If Yes is selected, a population definition needs to be available, either as grid or
as polygons.

Note that an Individual Risk calculation, resulting in a map with Iso Risk Contours, will always
be performed

Create Societal Risk Maps: Is a Yes/No choice, if these calculations are activated, the map
view will also display SR maps

Cumulate transport routes in FN graphs: Is a Yes/No choice, by default No. If the user
selects to cumulate transport routes, the total FN curve will include the results for the
complete route. if cumulation is skipped, transport scenario's will provide Transport FN
graphs, valid for a specific section of the route (by default 1 km).

3.5 Equipment definition


An equipment is defined either as STATIONARY (equipment is at one coordinate) or as a
TRANSPORT definition, where the equipment requires route definition.

Add an equipment by pressing <Right Mouse> <Add equipment>.

Adjust the new (red) name "Equipment" and use a good description.

A stationary equipment has two parameters containing the coordinates.

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Use the background map to pinpoint the exact location of the equipment by using <Right
Mouse><Set release point>

For TRANSPORT equipment, a route can be defined by pointing clicking coordinates on the
background map. See positioning equipment

3.6 Scenario definition


A scenario definition contains information about the typical "Loss of Containment" event, and
is always located at an equipment (either transport or stationary). The choice for the scenario
type determines the typical event to be modelled.

An important choice is to define a known consequence footprint, called a damage definition,


or to let internal EFFECTS model calculate the damage zones, depending on the installation
definition (the amount, type and storage conditions of the chemical).

Add a scenario by using <Right mouse> <Add scenario> or use the scenario selection panel

By default, the scenario will be named according to the type of scenario added. The effects
(consequences) part of a scenario is contained within a modelset definition (depicted by an fX
icon). The number of model calculations within a modelset is depending on the
meteorological definition.

Rename the scenario and give a good descriptive name by using <F2> or selecting the node
label.

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Scenario input requires:

Base frequency

The failure frequency for the scenario, expressed per year. Although this parameter has a
default, it is highly recommended to modify this according to the actual failure frequency.

Frequency correction factor

A scenario frequency might deviate from "standardized" situations, due to risk reduction
measures, dedicated situation etc.

By using a correction factor instead of adjusting the base frequency, adjustments can be
made more traceable. This value is used for Stationary Equipment, for transport equipment
the correction factor can be modified per location, leading to a third column in the route
definition.

Frequency equally distributed day/night:

By default, it is assumed that a frequency of an scenario is equally distributed over nighttime


and daytime; that is according to its meteorological occurrence. However, some activities
(loading unloading etc) may have a certain preference for either day or nighttime. By changing
this choice to "No", users can define user specified (so deviating from meteorological
distribution) value.

Fraction frequency in daytime hours

The base frequency is the total frequency for daytime and nighttime. Users can define
activities to take place only at daytime hours (fraction daytime = 100%), only at nighttime
(fraction = 0%) or any other value. The value entered here will determine which part of the
total frequency is used for daytime situation.

This input box is only available if "frequency equally distributed day/night" has a "No" as input.

Chance direct ignition

The probability that a direct (immediate) ignition event takes place. This parameter is only
relevant for scenario's in which multiple phenomena (poolfire and vapour cloud explosion,
jetfire and vapour cloud explosion) are possible (combined models). In case of damage
definitions, the calculation is restricted to a single event: an explosion damage definition
already assumes that the explosion takes place.

By default a value of 0.8 is used, but this value can be altered, because it is dependent of the
type chemical (flammability) or release rate.

Some guidelines, like the Dutch BEVI, give a table where this value is dependent of the
release rate and flammability classification of the substance.

For stationary equipment:

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And for transport equipment:

Chance delayed ignition

The probability that a delayed ignition (flash fire and/or vapour cloud explosion) event takes
place.

Note that the sum of Direct ignition and Delayed ignition does NOT have to be one:

1 - (Fraction direct + Fraction delayed) = fraction No Ignition

Bleve fraction:

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The probability of a Bleve event taken place. A BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour
Explosion) can only occur with a instantaneous release and may be one of the immediate
ignition events (other immediate ignition event can be a poolfire). This parameter only has
influence in case of multiple phenomena and is only applied in case of instantaneous two
phase releases of flammable materials.

Fraction with explosion phenomena

Given the occurrence of a vapour cloud explosion (which is regarded upon as a delayed
ignition), this event may have overpressure effects. This parameter describes which fraction
of those events will have overpressure effects.

Note different from other QRA tools, TNO assumes that all delayed ignitions will have a flash
fire phenomenon, and only a part of these flash fires will ALSO have overpressure effects.
This implies that given a delayed ignition, a flammable cloud drifting away from the source, a
delayed flash fire will always occur, and in a fraction of the situations this includes
overpressure phenomena.

3.7 Analysis points


Analysis point can be used to report risk contribution at specific user definable locations.

Any analysis point will produce a risk ranking per scenario, based on risk contribution at that
location. Furthermore, the societal risk FN graph of all scenarios affecting that location will be
presented, illustrating the severity of the societal risk at that location. This FN graph per
location is the base for the societal risk area map. The FN contribution graph will illustrate the
societal risk curve for the typical population within this population grid cell of this coordinate.
These location specific FN graphs are used as the bases for the SR contribution map.

Analysis point will be illustrated on the map when the "analysis point" is the active component
in the tree or whenever the "Show equipment locations" toolbar option has been selected.

An analysis point can be defined from any map view illustrating the Iso Risk Contours, such
as calculation set or the cumulation set.

To add an analysis point, use < Right mouse> < Add analysis point> on the analysis points
node, or use < Right mouse> , < Add analysis point> on top of the map to pinpoint a
coordinate from the map.

The results will be visible after a calculation, and presented in a table in the report tab.

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3.8 Result panel tabs


On top of the right half of the screen, four tabs provide access to the different result viewers:

For more information on various result screens, refer to:

Map display panel


Graph display panel
Report panel
Model Log panel

Note that the log panel also contains a LED light warning sign, which is used to illustrate the
status of the log messages

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3.9 Graph display panel


The profile result will present typical graphic representations that are available for the selected
node. This implies that the contents of the graph is dependent of the active node.

One of the most important graphs is the Societal Risk Graph which is available for a
Calculation Set or Equipment. Note that a transport equipment contains a slider which can be
used to illustrate the FN curve for a specific section of the route.

Depending on the contents of the graph, the X or Y scale may be adapted to logarithmic view,
when this is commonly used for displaying the typical graph.

Typical graphs available are:


1. Calculation set: The FN curve for all stationary equipment. If the option "cumulate transport
FN" is checked, the societal risk of the full route is ALSO included in this graph!
2. Equipment: the FN curve for this equipment. This might be a transport FN curve, that has
a slider to select the section of the route to display

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3. Scenario: In expert mode, the FX graph is illustrated here. The FX graph is a "Individual
Risk versus Distance" graph presentation, available in all winddirections. It can be seen as
a polar representation of the risk of this particular scenario. All these polar results together,
positioned on their corresponding location, eventually create the Individual Risk Map
(presented as contours)
4. Modelset: A modelset will contain result for different weather classes (D5 day, F2 night
etc). On a consequence model level, all consequence model results will be shown in this
panel as well.

3.9.1 Presenting Model Results


For evaluating the detailed results of a consequence model calculation, the appropriate
weatherclass needs to be selected in the weather class combobox. Depending on the type of
model (single phenomenon or combined consequence model), the number of graphs can
differ, but usually these profiles will illustrate a time or distance depending behaviour of a
result parameter.

The graph selection box can be used to browse through all graphs that can be provided by the
model whereas the small button next to the profile selection box enables the possibility to view
"Profile expert graphs"

3.9.2 Base functionality graphs


The graph presenter is equipped with a convenient zoom and scroll functionality which is

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entirely operated with mouse:

Zooming into a graph can be done by selecting a zoom area with your LEFT mouse. To do
so, point and click in the graph, hold the left mouse button and drag the mouse from top left
to right down while holding the left mouse button. The program will show a rectangle. When
you release the left button, the area in the rectangle will be zoomed.

To unzoom the current graph, select an arbitrary zoom area from bottom right to left up
(the opposite way around as you zoom, which is from left to right down).

Alternatively the profile can be zoomed/unzoomed scrolling the mouse wheel the same
way as the contours can be zoomed. The profile is zoomed on the point the mouse cursor is
pointing at that moment.

Moving a graph is achieved by dragging with the RIGHT mouse button. Drag the chart while
clicking the right-mouse button (the cursor will change to a hand), and the current viewing
area can be changed. Note that an <Unzoom> action will undo this modification of the
viewport area and will revert the graph back to the (automatically scaled) graph boundaries.

Edit, Copy and Freeze


Pressing the right mouse button on top of the profile graph will open a popup menu with
options Edit, Copy and Freeze.

The Edit choice will invoke the build in graphic editor which provide access to all settings of
the graph, including properties as titles, scales and legend placement, but also contains an
export tab, which enables the possibility to save the graph either as data or any specified file
type graph.

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The edit dialog can also be accessed by doubleclicking on the profile graph.

The Copy choice will put a high resolution copy of the current view on the clipboard.

The Freeze selection will create a "clone" of the current graph which is no longer connected
to the underlying model. This can be convenient if one wants to evaluate or compare diffrent
versions of a calculation.

Axis units
All axis units of the profile graph can be changed by right clicking on the axis itself, just like all
other numerical values.

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Crosshair and Ruler

The crosshair tool, which can be activated by pressing the in the toolbar, provides a
moving crosshair, which displays the current X and Y values of the mouse cursor.

The ruler option (toolbar button ) will show a ruler in the graph. The boundaries of the
ruler can be moved with the mouse, providing a way to measure the distance between
specific points.

3.10 (Autohide) Scenario selection panel


On the left side of the input screen, a small "grip" is shown. Whenever the mouse is hovered
above this area, the scenario selection panel will unroll. Whenever the mouse moved outside
this area, the panel will automatically hide again.

This panel provides a direct access to all available scenario's. Note that adding a scenario is
only possible if an equipment is the active node: a scenario needs to be added to a
location or a route!

Note that the panel is oriented by model family: Combined models, Dispersion models, Fire
models and Damage definitions (no calculation but a predefined damage zone).

Selecting a model here will have the same result as selecting it through the popup menu
under Equipment: Add scenario.

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3.11 Command button panel


This panel contains the three important buttons to perform calculations:

The buttons perform basic actions on the model input screen. The clear and default buttons
will perform actions on the current selected session and leave other sessions unchanged.
The calculate button acts on the entire project and will recalculate all currently unavailable
results.

The buttons have the following tasks:

The Clear button


This button will clear the input screen by making all fields empty. Any unsaved data in the
current session screen will be lost

The Default button


When this button is clicked, it will fill the input area with default data. Note that the Default
button will NOT overwrite any existing data. This means that the function of this button is that
it will add default data to input screens that have some fields left blank. If you want to
substitute all data in a screen with default data you will have to press the Clear button (see
next paragraph) prior to the Default button.

This is particularly important when using the "Simple" or "Normal" mode, with a limited
number of input parameters. Note that a consequence model can not run if it does not have
all input parameters entered.

If the user is working in "simple" or "normal mode" (see toolbar) some of the input
parameters MAY be hidden for the user. Before the calculation can be performed, all hidden
empty parameters are filled with their default values.

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The "Calculate" button


Pressing this button will start a calculation of the project. The calculation will be performed for
all currently modified scenarios or equipment that contain valid data. Currently modified
scenarios, or equipment, can be recognized by italic representation in the project tree.

If the calculation result in warnings or error, the log screen will automatically open, illustrating
the status of a calculation in color codes and a light.

During a calculation, a progress window will illustrate the progress, and give some feedback
on the current scenario or equipment being calculated.

Note that unchanged scenario's will not be recalculated; their modelset results will remain
unchanged. For a societal risk calculation, the results will need to be translated to total victims
and cumulated towards a total FN graph.

Recalculate ALL: <Alt> Calculate

Recalculation of all scenario's can be forced by pressing <Alt> plus the calculate button. This
will force complete recalculation of all effect models, scenario's and equipment contained in
the current project.

Calculate from here

It is also possible to force recalculation of a specific node: e.g. a single scenario, a single
equipment or a single calculation set. Select the node and press < Right mouse> : Calculate
from here. Note that if a single scenario is recalculated, but is part of a larger set, the
calculation set results will not be automatically updated.

3.12 Node input panel


Whenever a node has been selected, all required input (input parameter) for the active node
of the project tree will be displayed here. You can enter data by clicking on a white edit box
and type the data you want to use. By pressing the <TAB> or <SHIFT>+<TAB> key, you can
navigate through the input fields.

Depending on the active node: a Calculation Set, Population, Equipment, Scenario's or


Modelset the contents of the input panel (required input) will change.

When defining a modelset, this panel will contain all typical input for the effect consequence
model. Typical changes in the input of a combobox might influence availability of fields:
selecting an evaporating pool will disable the "liquid fraction" input: which will be grayed out.

Furthermore, color highlighting is used to reflect the state of an input field: all linked
parameters (copied from default weatherclass) are depicted with blue description, whereas
non-linked parameters remain black.

Furthermore, if parameters are missing, the label font will be is red, illustrating missing input.

Parameters that are in a light yellow edit box can be recognized as "expert" parameters, and
will only be visible if the <Expert> button is pressed. These parameters will normally be taken
from their corresponding default settings which can be environment settings like
temperatures etc, or expert parameter for all other defaults.

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Unit conversion input parameters


The input screen offers a convenient way to use any unit you like for entering the data. Right
click on the unit and select the required unit. Note that chemical dependent parameters (such
as Lower Explosion Limit or LEL value) will perform the required mass/volume translations
automatically:

3.13 Graph selection box


When a calculation is performed, a model can deliver more than one graphical result. As we

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can only display results of the same type in one graph simultaneously, the program will store
all different types of graphs in a selection box. For example, a BLEVE (EFFECTS) model
might present a heat radiation versus distance diagram as well as a mortality-distance
diagram.

Since only one graph can be visible at any moment, you can find the other graphs here.

When you press the down arrow, all other graphs become visible (see below)

Depending on which graph you choose, the graphical area (see graphical presentations) will
be updated automatically.

Note that some models, like the combined models, have an extensive list of profiles, requiring
to use the scrollbar in the selection box!

3.14 Profile expert button


The small button next to the profile selection box enables the possibility to view "Profile expert
graphs".

This feature allows the user to select multiple profiles,

Pressing this button will open a new window, with all currently available profiles listed on the
left side. The user can "tick" any graph.

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If profiles with different units are selected, the graph will use both left and right (even bottom/
top) axis to present the different graphs. All features, available for a standard profile graph,
such as (popup menu) Edit, Copy, Freeze and Unit axis setting are also available in the
Profile expert.

3.15 Map display panel

Map panel: a GIS presentator


The contour display panel will provide a GIS presentation of all geographic oriented results,
optionally above a background map.

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So whats GIS anyway?


GIS is the abbreviation of "Geographical Information Systems". GIS is everything about
objects that are linked to their geographical location and linked to extra information that can be
displayed in a map theme. For example: a database may contain the location of houses (X,Y
coordinate) while another database contains extra information like the price of this house,
and the material that it is built from. GIS brings it all together by creating a map that shows
location of the object (the house) and showing a colored price range. For example houses
below 200,000 are displayed as the green dots while houses above 200,000 are displayed
in red. A map consists of one or more layers. When using high end GIS systems, people
have many separate map layers available that contain roads, pipes, waterways, underground
electricity cables, glass fiber cables for computer communication, the water supply system,
street plans, terrain topography and much more. Combining two or more of these layers
result in a specific map theme. A map theme can, for example, consist of a layer that
contains the terrain topography and a layer that contains the waterways. This will give
information about the flow of rivers and canals with respect to terrain topography. When
contractors start digging, they mostly make use of maps that contain the terrain topography
combined with pipelines, water supply system, computer communication cables etc. to avoid
damage while digging.

RISKCURVES works more or less in the same way as a common GIS system. It can make
use of several map layers and you can manipulate these layers and the properties of every
layer.

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The sequence in which the map layers are drawn, greatly influences the way that the map
looks. For example if the first layer contains the road network and the second layer is a
bitmap containing the terrain topography, the road network might be invisible because it is
hidden behind the bitmap. This is because vector files (like the road map) are mostly
transparent, while bitmaps are opaque (not transparent). Keep this in mind when you create a
map of several layers. By default, background maps are always the first (back most) layer.
The order of the layers can be manipulated by dragging a layer in the legend panel towards a
different location.

Currently supported formats for background maps are:

SHP (Shape) file format, these files typically contain vectorised information like lines,
polygons or points, associated with fields (stored in a seperate database), that can be used
as an indicator for the geographic object.
DXF is a cad oriented exchange format. Most CAD programs can export drawings (e.g.
overview of an industrial plant) as DXF file.
Pixel oriented images: JPG, TIF, PNG, BMP files. Pixel oriented files always need a geo
reference file that contains the translation of pixel coordinates to real world coordinates. A
utility to create these files is included in the program.

3.15.1 Presenting geographic calculation results


If a model calculation output also contains geographic oriented information (e.g. size of the
toxic cloud, size of a fireball) these result will automatically be presented in the RISKCURVES
system. You will often add one or more and map backgrounds (topographic maps, Google
earth screen capture) to the map presentation area.

RISKCURVES will automatically add all layers that contain the results. Note that the layers
can be activated / deactivated by the checkboxes in the legend. Below is a picture that shows
a specific GIS layers on top of a topographic map.

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Contour Legend and colors


In the legend area all map layers will become visible as an checkable item. The colors that
are used for Iso Risk Contours, or grid presentations, can be modified within "presentation
settings"

For a comparison set, multiple contours will be drawn of one particular contour value (e.g. the
10-6 contour) will be drawn. The value for this "multiselect contour" can be modified within
presentation settings.

These specific grids can be saved by selecting the legend, pressing the right mouse button,
and selecting "Export as ESRI grid" from the popup menu.

Tip: by selecting the crosshair cursor tool from the toolbar, while the grid layer is activated
(selected thus blue), the coordinates and risk values under the cursor will be displayed:

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3.15.2 Positioning equipment

Positioning equipment, or defining routes or population polygons

The background map will become very useful when defining equipment: a stationary
equipment requires a coordinate. This can be taken from the map by using the popup menu:
< Right Mouse> < Set release point>. This will automatically copy the current mouse cursor
position to release coordinates. It is strongly advised to zoom in the map in order to position
equipment accurately.

For a transport equipment, a route needs to be defined, which is performed by simply


pointing/clicking points on the route. Pressing the <Edit> button will invoke the drawing mode:
add or move point by simply dragging a point (move) or clicking a new point on the map. A
selected point will be drawn in red. Use the scroll wheel to zoom in to a high level and be able
to define points accurately. Deleting points can be done by selecting a point on the map and
pressing <delete> or selecting the table row and pressing <delete>.

Finalize definition of a route by pressing < End Edit> in the route input panel.

A route also has correction factors, which are used for local adjustment of the failure
frequency, for example on railroad crossings, switches etc.

3.15.3 Map functionality


The contour viewer uses the same mouse shortcuts as the graph display for zooming and
scrolling.

Apart from the left right mouse drag, the scroll-wheel can also be used to zoom in or out of
an area.

Whenever the contour panel is activated, five toolbar buttons can be used for specific
features:

The grid tool shows a grid definition in the contour, which can be handy for reading out
positions

Will show the location of the model. The equipment location or route can be illustrated
with a dot or line on the background image.

Show crosshair: Illustrates the coordinate of the location at the cursor, and if a "grid"
layer is active (selected in the legend) , provides information about the value of the location at
the cursor.

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Ruler: activates the contour ruler, which is a measuring device to be used for obtaining
absolute sizes of clouds, areas, or distances to objects on a background map.

Popup menu
When you click on the right mouse button in the contour area, a popup menu will be shown:

Set release point: By selecting this option, the coordinate which is currently under the
mouse cursor, will be entered in the "X coordinate/ Y coordinate" equipment input fields.

Add analysis point: By selecting this option, the coordinate which is currently under the
mouse cursor, will be added as an analysis point. This function is only available on calculation
sets and cumulation sets

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Gray scale background: Is only applicable for pixel background images, and will set the
current background in grayscale to improve visibility of the (colored) contours.

Show GridValues: Illustrates the coordinate, and if a Grid layer is active, the value of the cell
under the cursor will be presented:

Show grid overlay: activates the grid definition in the map, which can be handy for reading
out positions

Show Release point: activates the equipment locations layer, showing the locations of
equipment locations and analysis points.

Gray scale background: Is only applicable for pixel background images, and will set the
current background in grayscale to improve visibility of the (colored) contours.

Show Release point= location of model, Show Grid = allows to show a grid at various
distances, Show GridValue: Illustrates the coordinate, and if a Grid layer is active, the value
of the cell under the cursor will be presented

Display unit will change the unit used in the scale bar

Print will allow to print the current map view to a windows installed printer

Export: Allows to Copy the current view to the clipboard, or Export the contents as a
"Shape" (.SHP) file, Google earth file (KML/KMZ), GeoJSON and images .

Draw transect: point and drag a line to display the risk values along this line as a risk
transect.

Edit transect point: provides the possibility to manually adjust coordinates, to obtain exactly
the same values for strt and end point of the transect.

3.15.4 Map legend options


In the legend area all map layers will become visible as a checkable item.

The legend is provided on a floating panel that can be re sized and moved anywhere on the
screen, and can be docked to the right side of the map. If the red "close" cross has been
pressed, the panel can be activated agian by selecting menu "View .. Panels .. Legend"

Specific presentation layers can be activated or de-activated by selecting the checkbox of the
layer in the legend.

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- The ordering of the layers can be altered by dragging the layer legend item to the top or
bottom direction. The topmost layer will be the first layer to be drawn, subsequent other layers
will be projected on top of the preceding layer. For this reason, the background maps should
always be the top layer.

- The bottom part of the legend panel can be used to present a risk transect: a XY graph
presentation of the risk along a definable track on the map.

Double clicking a legend item will display the internal editor for the GIS viewer. This editor can
be used to to change display colors (note that default colors should be set in presentation
settings), transparency of the layers etc.

For contours, the colors, transparency and filling can be changed in the associated popup
menu.

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A more complex property editor of a map layer can be accessed by using the <expert>
button, or double clicking on an layer legend item.

Grid display
For toxic dispersion models, the model will also present a lethality grid that represents lethality
as a function of place. Colors range from red to light green indicating lethality 100% (red) to
1% (light green). Fire model can also present mortality grid and a heat radiation grid
illustrating heat radiation intensity versus location.

To have an indication of the value at the cursor, the map crosshair tool will reveal the value
under the cursor IF the grid layer is the active layer (selected layer=light blue).

Double-clicking on the corresponding legend layer will reveal the color translation editor.

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Surrounding contours

The legend popup also provides the possibility to illustrate "surrounding contours", which is
useful for contours that will be dependent of the wind direction.

Export to file

Depending on the type of layer (contour or grid) various export formats such as KML/KMZ
(Google earth), Shape file, and Geo JSON formats are available. Grids can be exported in
KML/KMZ file, as an ESRI Ascii grid (ASC,GRD), ESRI binary (FLT) format and as an image
format (JPG,TIF, BMP)

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Freeze layer

Because the map is always presenting the contours and grids of the current active selected
model, the comparison set allows to compare any combination of models. To be able to
compare grids, or any other GIS layer permanently, a specific GIS layer can be <frozen>
which implies that it will be a permanent copy, not reacting to switches of the active model or
project.

Simply select < Freeze layer copy> to create a fixed layer. Use the legend popup menu <
Delete layer> to remove this layer from view.

3.16 Report panel


The report panel contains a full list of input AND result parameters that were generated while
running the calculation.

Depending on the active node of the tree, the contents of the report will differ.

For a calculation set or cumulation set, a list of all scenarios, including frequency and
maimum effcet distances, and societal risk ranking report will be presented.

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For a scenario including a consequence calculation, the full list of the EFFECTS model
calculation results is available. Note that for combined model scenarios, this list may be very
long, because a model chain might contain several submodels, such as outflow, evaporation
and toxic/explosive dispersion models, and several typical fire/heat radiation phenomena
models like a Bleve or Poolfire model.

On a modelset level the result will be presented for all different weather conditions defined.

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If the user has selected multiple models i the model navigation list, the report will display
results of selected sessions in different columns. Any differences in input will be marked
bold, allowing to quickly compare calculations and see differences in input.

The report view is a full HTML document, which can easily be copied to your local office
application. Furthermore print and print preview is supported by the internal HTML viewer.

3.17 Model log panel


The model log presents a logging of all messages occurring during a calculation.

Furthermore, a color code is used to illustrate warnings and error messages.

When calculating complex physical effects or consequences, there are numerous reasons
why a calculation can go wrong. Physical conditions might not match those required to run
the selected model, erroneous input might be entered or simply a bug in a model
encountered.

When the program traps an error, this error is send to the model log. When the model log
contains warnings or errors after a calculation the user will get a notification that something
unexpected has happened and the log viewer is opened.

The severity of the error is illustrated by the led light on top of the view:

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A Yellow indicator illustrates a warning, for example a model was used outside it
validity domain, root finding method does not find a solution, or system messages
that a subroutine was doing an illegal action but which could be corrected. It is not an
error but needs user judgment. Warning messages may include hints that no
societal risk has been found.

A Red indicates an error, which can be straightforward messages like "Can not
calculate because of parameters being empty", but it may also report that input
conditions determine a situation for which the model will not run or a scenario that
was skipped.. Basically an error messages implies that no reliable (end)results are
available for the corresponding scenario or consequence model. The message is
often combined with a suggestion of how to solve the problem.

Note: the log window supports sorting on columns, so by sorting on severity, the most
important warnings or errors may be listed on top.

Note: Every message will only show once. Furthermore, if a warning or error is raised, the
program will always switch to the log viewer to force the user to read the messages.

The Time column illustrates the date or time when the error occurred.

The # field presents the number of times that the problem (error or warning) occurred.

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The first error that happened is usually the most important. If errors were trapped in more
than one model calculation, the first/second error of every session is usually the most
important.

The MODEL LOG log is cleared every time you perform another calculation, and is always
associates with ONE model calculation. Since combined model chains consists of several
submodels, warnings may be associated with multiple models.

Model codes used in the log:


The combined model often incorporates 4 types of dispersion models which will be
abbreviated in the messages:

HGDE: Heavy Gas Dispersion Explosive mass model, (Inst indicated Instantaneous mode,
Pool indicates Poolevaporation mode)

HGDT: Heavy Gas Dispersion Toxic model

NGDE: Neutral Gas Dispersion Explosive mass model

NGDT: Neutral Gas Dispersion Toxic model

3.18 Legend panel


The legend panel, displayed on the right side of the map, will display all layers currently active
in the internal GIS viewer.

Activation or deactivation can be performed by selecting the menu option "View" "Panels"
"Legend" / "Transect graph"

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4 Advanced features

4.1 Options
In the edit menu a menu-item Options is provided, selection if this item will show the options
screen.

Reload last file


If this item is checked, RISKCURVES will always open the last used file, allowing you to
quickly continue with the project you were working on.

Number of files to remember


The file menu contains a list of the recently used RISKCURVES project files. The number of
files stored in this history list can be modified with this value.

Restore application position


By selecting this item, it is possible to restore the size and position of the RISKCURVES
application window. The program will always open in the same size and same relative screen
position that was last used.

Restore toolbar positions


If the user has modified the position of the toolbars (they can be dragged by using the grip on
the left side of the toolbar), using this setting will repaint the toolbar on the same place when
RISKCURVES is re-activated.

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Default chemical database


By default, RISKCURVES comes with two databases: the YAWS database, providing
physical properties for about 120 chemicals and the the extended DIPPR database,
containing properties for over 1500 chemicals. Furthermore, users can make copies of the
database, where specific properties are modified, or chemicals gave been added. This setting
can be used to determine the default database that will be used whenever a new model is
created.

Note that is is always possible to switch databases for any effects model by using the browse
button to the right of the chemical combobox:

See Chemical database for more information on the chemical database

Default Display Units


RISKCURVES is equipped with a automated unit conversion system. All units can be
switched by simply right-clicking the unit label and selecting an alternative unit. Apart from this
option, users can define their own default set.

Default Presentation settings

These settings contain typical parameters influencing the graphical presentations of


RISKCURVES. All parameters can be individually adjusted in the presentation settings within
the project. For any new project, the defaults defined here will be applied.

Expert Parameter Defaults

Any effects model contains several input parameters, where the current complexity level
determines the number of parameters displayed. So-called "expert parameters" are more
dedicated parameters, illustrated in a yellow background, that usually don't need adjustment.
The defaults that will be used if these expert parameters have not been explicitly defined, will
be taken from the "expert parameter defaults" that can be adjusted here.

Environment settings
These settings store some typical environmental parameters that are used within the
program, if the user is not working in Expert mode. Furthermore, whenever the <Default>
button is pressed in expert mode; the values provide here will be entered in the
corresponding property fields.

Expert parameter settings


Apart from environment dependent values like ambient temperature etc, some other system
parameters are often used within the models. Values that re used within the models can be
modified in the parameter settings dialog.

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Dispersion Sigma definitions


The neutral gas dispersion model uses so-called Sigma's to the Gaussian dispersion. For
every Pasquill stability class these sigma's have been defined in the Yellow book. Although
highly discouraged, it is possible to change these settings, because other countries may have
different values for these classes.

WARNING: CHANGING THESE VALUES WILL INFLUENCE THE RESULTS OF THE


NEUTRAL GAS DISPERSION MODEL!

Location of User modified settings

Note that any RISKCURVES project will contain all parameters used INSIDE the project itself.
Even transferring the project to another system will not change results upon calculation,
WITH EXCEPTION of the chemical database. Note that this file (see chemical database for
the location of this file) needs to be copied to another system to be using identical "User
defined" substances..

All defaults, entered within the options menu, including user defined new meteorological
definitions,(specific meteo station data) will be stored in a user settings file,
<Applicationname>.user.config (which is a XML file) which is located inside the users
application folder. The typical location depends on the windows version, but it can be found
using the %Appdata% query in the Windows Find box or Windows Explorer address field. The
%appdata% folder contains subfolders EFFECTS and RISKCURVES, containing the
dedicated configuration files.

The typical locations for user configuration files can also be found using the "RISKCURVES
diagnostics" tool, which is installed along with RISKCURVES.

4.2 Display units


RISKCURVES is equipped with an automated unit conversion system.

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All units can be switched by simply right-clicking the unit label and selecting an alternative
unit. The input screen offers a convenient way to use any unit you prefer for entering the data.
Right click on the unit and select the required unit. Note that chemical dependent parameters
(such as Lower Explosion Limit or LEL value) will perform the required mass/volume
translations automatically:

Apart from this build-in unit conversion option, users can define their own default Unit set. If
one prefers to use British Standard Units or other local (non-SI) units, it is possible to define
this as the standard unit for all models and all axis. After saving of these settings, all screens
will be using the specified units.

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4.3 Presentation settings


These settings contain parameters determining presentations of RISKCURVES.
Presentation settings will always be applied for the complete project, and not just for one
Calculation set.

The defaults can be accessed from the options menu, users can redefine or adapt
presentation settings within any project.

Important choices are the typical values for Iso Risk Contours to draw, the Individual Risk
level to use in comparison graphs, and definition of the guide value line.

Coordinate System:

This defines the global presentation system, as used within the project.

Lethal fraction max damage report

In the reporting of scenario's, a maxium distance to # % lethality is added, whereas the map
will also display a surrounding contour for this 33% lethality distances. The exact level for this
lethality can be specified here, making it possible to display and present other relevant lethality
threshold levels, such as 5%, 10% or even 90%.

Guide value definition

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RISKCURVES now supports the use of country specific guide value definitions. Note that the
guideline is also presented in the FN graph as a straight line. The slope, and orientation of this
threshold line can be defined by using the parameters:
1. Guide value starting at # victims: the X-axis starting point
2. Guide value starting at frequency: the Y-axis starting point
3. Guide value transport starting at: the Y axis value to use for a transport FN curves
4. Guide value maximum: the X axis end point
5. Guide value slope: the slope of the guide value line (e.g. Netherlands uses slope 2,
implying a risk aversion, the UK uses a slope of 1; no risk aversion)

Transport fN curve section width

The section distance to be used for societal risk curves for transport risks can be adjusted.
By default, a 1 km length is applied, although risks can always be accumulated for the entire
route.

Victim category for Risk ranking

The risk ranking report based on societal risk, which is reported at a calculation set level,
always contains a risk ranking which is taken at the "highest level". This can be for any
specific N category, which is also presented. Apart from this, the societal risk risk ranking can
also be presented at any user defined number of victims. One might be interested in the
contribution at 100, or maybe 1000 victims. This secondary risk ranking reporting category
can be defined by this user definable victim category.

Color legend translation of grids

Furthermore, the color legend to use for specific grid presentations can be defined here. The
concept is to define minimum and maximum levels, the number of levels and color range to
illustrate a (risk) value into a color.

Note that the translation of societal risk area maps is based on the norm ratio of the societal
risk at a location, which is compared to the guide value. These norm ratio values are colored
according to logarithmic scale: -2 means 100 times lower than the guide value, =2 means
100 time too high, and zero means ratio 1.

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Line color palette

The color palette itself is used for the definition of line colors for contours and graphical
presentations. The first 6 values are used for contour colors, the colors from 7 to 20 are
used for subsequent lines in the graph panel.

The last two colors are used as color for the "show locations" and "show analysis points"
color.

4.4 Expert Parameter settings


The expert parameters editor is used to store some of the default values which will be entered
into a model calculation when working in "simple mode" or when the <Default> button will be
pressed.

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StandardPipeRoughness
The roughness of a pipe is used in pipe flow pressure drop calculations, default 4.5E-5 m

Hole contraction coefficient


This contraction coefficient for sharp edges is used in outflow calculations. Default is 0.62

Pipe contraction coefficient


This contraction coefficient for pipe endings edges is used in outflow calculations. Default is
0.82

Concentrating averaging time toxics


This value is used to calculate an time averaged concentration for toxic loads. Default is
600.0 sec.

For a (semi-) continuous source this is the duration over which the concentration will be
averaged out, to deal with the effect of the meandering of the wind.

The averaging time for toxic concentration is related to aspects of the receiver. For local
irritant chemicals the effects can occur within few seconds (few breathings) and for
systematically irritant chemicals within few minutes (few times pumping of blood through
body).

Therefore the standard value is chosen to be 60.

Concentrating averaging time flammables


This value is used to calculate an time averaged concentration for flammable substances.
Default is 20.0 sec.

For a (semi-) continuous source this is the duration over which the concentration will be
averaged out, to deal with the effect of the meandering of the wind.

The minimum value for the averaging time is 18.75 s [Yellow Book], this compares to the
value for an instantaneous source, which is also used for the calculations of the contour for
the flammability limits and the explosive mass.

Toxic Inhalation Heigth


This values is used as default height to calculate the toxic dose.

Fraction confined mass in Multi energy explosion method


The multi energy method for explosions has an important parameter "Fraction confined
mass".

Default this one is set to 8.0 %. Although this value is quite unrealistic, it appears to give
answers comparable to the old TNT method.

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CurveNumber for Multi energy explosion method


The multi energy method for explosions has an important parameter "CurveNumber".

Default this one is set to 10. Although this value is quiet unrealistic, in combination with 8%
confined, answers are in the same order of magnitude as the old TNT method.

The multi-energy method is based upon experimental graphs in which the required value
depends upon the distance from the vessel and the type of explosion. 10 different types of
explosion are considered, and have a curve associated to them. Those are:

1. Very weak deflagration


2. Very weak deflagration
3. Weak deflagration
4. Weak deflagration
5. Medium deflagration
6. Strong deflagration
7. Strong deflagration
8. Very strong deflagration
9. Very strong deflagration
10. Detonation

Probabilty FlashAndExplosion
In a gas cloud explosion, the flashfire may be accompanied by overpressure effects. This
parameter determines the probability that flash AND explosion occur. Default is 0.4

Default mixingheight

Used in dispersion calculations. Default value 500.0 m

4.5 Meteorological distribution


A meteorological distribution contains the probabilities of weather conditions and wind
directions occurring. Definitions are usually named after a corresponding meteorological
station, like airport names. All Dutch weather stations are available within the standard
installation, but users will often need to define their own stations. Once station have been
added, these locations can be selected in the meteo data project node.

This editor shows a table which present the probabilities that wind for a specified stability
class from a wind sector occurs. Different from previous version, the new editor now has
separate Day/Night columns, and values are relative percentages.

The sum of all day and all night definition should be 100% together. If this condition is not
archived, a red Meteo Distribution indication will be shown, and the total day or total night
might turn red, indicating invalid values.

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User can define simple data sets with only two weather classes.

The button < Add Weather Class> will add two (a day and night)columns, titles according to
the selected Pasquill class and wind speed.

Columns can be deleted by pressing < RightMouse> button and selecting <Remove Weather
class> button.

Apart from modifying the cells for the specific wind direction weather class combination, the
total occurring probability for a column can be modified. This will remain the current wind
direction distribution for that weather class untouched and can be convenient when adjusting
probabilities of weather class occurring.

Note: In previous RISKCURVES versions the distribution daytime/nightime was incorporated


within the meteorological definition, the current distribution is based on 100% daytime total
and 100% nighttime total. The daytime / nighttime ratio is defined in a separate parameter
Meteorological Daytime Fraction

4.6 Vulnerability settings


Within the vulnerability settings, typical parameters defining translation of effects to damage
are grouped together.

The defaults to be used in a new project can be accessed from the options menu, users can
redefine or adapt vulnerability settings within any project.

See paragraph QRA Definitions Vulnerability parameters for a detailed description on all
values.

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4.7 Environment settings


This editor provides the possibility to modify environment settings as displayed below:

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These environment are being used as standard values for model definitions, and can only be
overruled when using the "expert mode" situation.

Since RISKCURVES now supports dedicated day/night calculations, environment parameters


have distinguished day or night specification. Whenever a new sceanrio will be created, the
appropriate day/night conditions will be pushed in models for D5 day or D5 night.

With respect to the risk calculations, the parameter "Meteorological Daytime Fraction" is
important. This parameter defines the number of hours during 24 hour that are defined as
daytime situation. Note that separate D5 day and D5 Night calculations will be performed for
two situations (as for any stability class occurring during day and nighttime). This parameter
will adjust the typical occurrence of day/night situation according to the countries
meteorological condition.

Apart from this "calculation set" typical parameter, any scenario can be defined as occurring
more or less during daytime.

See Environment parameters for a detailed description of all parameters.

4.8 Accuracy settings


Accuracy settings are used to group parameters that influence the accuracy of the
calculation. One should be aware that there might be a tradeoff between accuracy and
calculation speed.

The defaults to be used in a new project can be accessed from the options menu, users can
redefine or adapt accuracy settings within any calculation set.

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4.9 Chemical Databases


By default, RISKCURVES comes with the YAWS database, providing physical properties for
about 100 chemicals. The extended DIPPR database contains over 2000 chemicals. Apart
from this standard file, provided with the installation, users need to define at least one "USER
defined" file name and location, where modifications and user created chemicals and
mixtures will be stored.

The original chemical property data cannot be modified, and changes to "official" chemical
properties will always be stored in the "USER defined" file. Modifications will be marked with
source names "DIPPR, edited (year)" or "user created (year) in case the user created a full
copy or has been defining mixtures.

In order to define WHERE modifications will be stored, RISKCURVES 10 contains a


Chemical database manager, allowing to define which USER files (name and location) to
use to retrieve chemical properties.

This database manager is accessed through program options (menu <Edit>,<Options>) :

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4.9.1 Chemical database manager


Database files : multiple files possible

The original database itself is available in a file "ChemicalDatabase.tci" and stored in the
windows installation folder, next to the RISKCURVES program itself.

Apart from this standard file ONE or more USER defined files are required, to be able to
store user defined modifications, copies or user defined mixtures. Note that these user
defined files need to be on a location where the user has write access.

RISKCURVES now allows to use potentially multiple selections for database files to use.
The name and location of the user defined files need to specified by the user, which is
performed in this database manager. The idea behind the possibility to include multiple
chemical databases is that users can share company specific files (e.g. from network
locations), or use additions from colleagues, whereas user modifications will be stored in
user specific files.

When multiple user defined files are provided, the last (bottom) file in this list will act as the
active storage file for any modifications and is illustrated in bold characters. Chemical
records from other files will be available for selection, but any modifications will (by default) be
put in this bold active "user file". When using multiple database locations, the active user file
can be selected using the <up> <down> buttons on the right of the list of available databases.
It is strongly recommended to display a warning if one or databases failed to load, because
this might imply that user modifications or additions (mixtures definitions) cannot be stored.

If a user has been defining "user defined chemicals" in RISKCURVES version 9, these
records can be transferred to the new separated user file. Please refer to the chapter
"Converting version 9 user chemicals" if user defined chemical definitions need to be
translated into version 10.

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Synchronizing User defined chemicals: If users have added "User" chemicals, and
colleagues on other PC's want to use the same definitions, the corresponding
"MyUserDefined.tci" (user defined name) file will need to be copied to a location which is
accessible to the other computer (for instance a network location?)

4.9.2 Chemical databases sources

The viewer / editor can be accessed by selecting the browse button to the right of the

chemcial name, or use the toolbar button. This will open the chemical database dialog,
where you can change the database sources in the top left corner.

Database sources: YAWS, DIPPR or USER defined

Because the user can alter the chemical records, there is a potential danger that a model
might crash or calculates false results due to erroneous data that was entered in any
database. To avoid a situation that a model will not run due to an erroneous database, the
standard database always contains the original data. This database file
("ChemicalDatabase.tci") is write protected, and contains chemicals from sources YAWS,
"DIPPR2010", "DIPPR 2015" and some example mixtures.

DIPPR 2015 appeared to have some properties which were substantially modified as
compared to the 2010 version. In particular the lower flammability limit of some common
substances like methane and propane was modified (because of improved insights at
DIPPR) leading to different results in the explosive mass calculations. The previous version 9
was provided with the 2010 DIPPR version, and for compatibility reasons this data is still
provided within the software.

The availability of a RISKCURVES (non educational) license will provide access to the DIPPR
chemicals. Without an active license, DIPPR chemicals cannot be accessed.

The database editor is configured so that you can not change the YAWS or DIPPR data, but
you can copy values from either database into your own "USER set" or add properties to
official records, which will also be stored in your current (active) user database. Added
properties can be recognized by their orange dot in a property listing.

The following paragraphs will explain how you can create your own database and maintain it,
using the database editor.

During model calculations, physical and thermodynamic properties of all (available)


chemicals come from the chemical databases.

Please note: Although licensed users have access to both database sources, calculation
results from YAWS may differ from DIPPR generated results, simply because the chemical
properties may differ. Furthermore, the DIPPR database takes into account the "non ideal gas
behavior" by using a second virial coefficient. Due to this, results from gas outflow models
may differ more than expected based on typical density parameters.

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Example mixtures

In order to be able to work with mixtures, some sample mixtures have been provided. The
chemical composition of these samples have been taken from public sources, and may or
may not be reflecting typical localized compositions. Be aware that many petrochemical
compositions are dependent of the typical climate in the country (summer/winter grade
gasoline) or even drilling source of the crude oil (e.g. "Brent" crude).

TNO does not take responsibility for the correct compositions of these samples, users need
to verify whether their local compositions matches the mixture definitions as provided, and
potentially adjust the composition into a user defined (edited) mixture.

Using multiple chemical database sources


When the program starts, it will always connect to the standard database automatically. You
can use chemicals from the predefined supplied chemical database sets (which are YAWS,
DIPPR 2010, DIPPR 2014 and Sample mixtures set). To use or exclude sources, simply
select or deselect the corresponding "Source" in the database viewer.

Select a chemical from that database and click 'Ok' to use that chemical.

The database editor performs no validity checks on provided values. If you enter physically
incorrect data, the program will trap many errors in a model calculation that might be very
difficult to trace.

The standard names "user created (year) / DIPPR edited (year)" for sources are
automatically added when creating user defined chemicals, which can be done by copying
originals, or when modifying existing records.

These "source names" (where does this information originate from) can be modified by
selecting the source name for the chemical, potentially adding a source name (e.g. a
company name)

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4.9.3 Selecting a chemical from the database


To select a chemical, use the search field in the top-left of the database editor menu and
potentially filter results on sources or toxic/flammable behavior.

This Name field will act as a filter on the chemical names, and tree resulting tree will include
all chemicals matching the entered characters.

It is also possible to search on a specific CAS number, by entering the (full and correct)
CAS number in the name field. Corresponding chemicals will only show up on a full match of
the CAS number.

The Show field allows to filter for only toxic, only flammable, or all

By checking or un-checking Sources, searching can be limited to specific sources.

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Select the chemical which is required in the tree, and its basic properties will be illustrated in
the right panel.

Properties are divided in "Constant", "Synonyms" "Temperature dependent" "Threshold


concentration".

Selecting a branch opens the chemical, where each chemical has constant, temperature
dependent, and possibly toxic properties. Select the sub-branch you wish to inspect from the
chemical in the chemical tree and properties will be listed or presented graphically.

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4.9.4 Viewing/Editing properties of chemicals


The main chemical editor shows the contents of the database. The chemical database editor
provides a tree view, where chemicals are depicted by a tree branch in the left-hand panel.

Filtering of the listed chemicals is performed by using a filter on Name, use Show to include
exclude toxics or flammables and selecting Sources to include.

NOTE: All user modified chemicals will be listed as "Edited (Year)" or "User Created
(Year)" sources!

Because the program will use the standard YAWS or DIPPR database by default, it will show
non-editable fields for all provided data. After modification of original data, the substance will
be listed in "edited", and if a copy of the record was be made, the new record will be put in
any "USER created" file.

This can conveniently be done by right-clicking on a chemical in the chemical tree, and
selecting "Copy to" allowing to select a specific user file to create the new chemical. This
also allows copying records from one file to another: the administrator can thus create a
company specific file based on additions from various users.

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This will create a full copy of an existing chemical in the USER DATA set. Note that copies of
original DIPPR chemicals stay subject to your DIPPR license. This implies that without a
valid license, these DIPPR copy chemicals will not be accessible. Apart from creating a "full"
copy, it is possible to add properties (e.g. toxic probits, or concentration thresholds), which
means that the official original data is still used, but property values have been extended with
user defined properties. This means that only the new properties values will be stored in the
user file, other properties are still taken form the original database, and the chemical will be
listed in "edited".

Note that the <open ICSC> button will automatically jump to the International Chemical Safety
Card of the current chemical, if the corresponding ICSC number is known. This site will
provide detailed safety information, including commonly used occupational exposure limits
values like IDLH values.

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Viewing constant / temperature dependent properties


The chemical tree list is divided into a 3 sub-branches. The first is called Constant
Properties and contains all temperature-independent properties like molar mass, critical
temperature etc.

All temperature-dependent properties are listed under the other chemical substance branch.
The names are self-explanatory. Click on the required parameter (such as "Liquid vapour
pressure") to illustrate the formula's and graphs for the property. The checkboxes in the
'Known Ranges' view control the graphs that are displayed.

Viewing graphs of the chemical parameters


The graph which illustrates the temperature dependent behaviour of the selected chemical
parameter provides some of the typical graphical features: zooming by dragging a box, using
a crosshair to read out values, or even change scales:

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Viewing Toxic parameters


The toxicity parameters view (last branch) contains all values for the "A", "B" and "N" probits.

Note: The value for the A probit is dependent of the units used (ppm.min, kg/m3.s or mg/
m3.min). The probit converter tool can be used to to translate values before entering them.
When initially entering values, one should use the default SI unit which is s*kg/m3 .

Note also that the value of B is used to translate the A probit, which implies that conversion
cannot be done without the knowledge of the B probit. This implies that unit conversion
cannot be applied while entering values.

By using the right mouse button on top of the unit box, the unit values can be changed,
illustrating the impact on the a value

Editing temperature-dependent properties


To edit a temperature-dependent property select it's entry in the left-hand tree. If the
temperature-dependent property you wish to edit is not in the list, right-click on the
'Temperature Dependent Properties'-entry, and select it from the 'Add' menu.

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Minimum valid and maximum valid temperatures (Ranges)


In the right-hand pane you can see the different ranges known for the selected property. Right
click in the 'Known Ranges' area to add a new range, or delete a current one. Double click on
a temperature to edit it's value.

As any temperature dependent property is a formula, the ranges indicate between which
temperatures a function is indicated as "valid". The word "valid" can have two meanings within
this concept.

First: most temperature dependent parameters are interpolated or extrapolated from


experimental data and the two temperatures shown here are the temperatures between
which experiments have been performed and the data is validated. This does not necessarily
cover the whole range that the function could be valid. For example, theoretically, a vapor
pressure is valid until the critical temperature. Above that temperature, a liquid-vapor
equilibrium does not exist. So the maximum valid temperature can be lower than the critical
temperature when experiments have not been carried out until the critical temperature.

Second: As explained above, the maximum valid temperature can also be a true physical
limit, like a melting point or a critical temperature. These values were entered in the previous
"General" data entry screen.

Enabled: In the DIPPR database, temperature range overlapping properties have been
disabled. To be able to activate another range, you can toggle this setting by double-clicking
on the <Enabled> field.

Equation

This is the actual equation that is used to calculate the temperature dependent data. You can
change the 'Equation' drop-down list to the desired equation, in the 'Parameters' area to it's
left, you can double click to edit the parameters for the chosen equation.

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Editing toxic properties


To edit toxic properties, select the 'Toxic Properties' node in the left-hand tree view. Existing
properties can be edited by double-clicking their value. New properties can be added by
selecting them in the right-click menu.

With every toxic property, it's possible to store the source, and a comment.

Editing constant properties and chemical identification information


Editing the constant properties, and the chemical identification information is much the same
as editing toxic properties.

Every chemical has a source and a comment stored with them, editable on the chemical
identification page (select chemical name in the left-hand tree). Existing values can be
changed by double-clicking, new entries can be added with the right-click popup menu.

4.9.5 Creating chemical mixtures


A Mixture can also be defined by dragging any chemical to the "Mixture" panel at the bottom of
the screen. Another possibility is selecting the a pure chemical and using <right mouse> and
selecting "Add to mixture".

After adding this substance to a mixture, the user needs to define the amount of the
component in the mixture. This can be based both on Molar fraction AND on mass fraction
(use right mouse button to select either mass or moles). The parts don't have to combine to
100 but the fraction will be corrected to the total number of parts.

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After selecting <Apply> a name for the mixture needs to be provided and the Chemical
mixture will be stored in the current user database. Mixtures are recognizable by their green
icon in the chemical tree list. All calculated property values can be easily read by selecting
the presented mixture properties.

The properties of the mixtures created will be calculated based on mixing rules, where
constant properties (e.g. LFL, burning rate) can be overruled by simply overwriting the
calculated value in the list.

RISKCURVES uses straightforward mixing rules to derive properties of mixtures. Many


properties will be calculated using an "ideal mixing rule" which means the mixture property
is derived as a ratio of the molar fraction (or mass based if the property is mass based) of
each of the components. Depending on the property value, the mixing rule may be specifically
be tuned (see calculation method properties)

One should keep in mind that these mixing rule DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT so-called
binary interaction coefficients, nor account for chemical reactions or absorption effects, and
are thus not reliable for typical polar mixtures! This particularly means that mixtures like
Ammonia/Water etc. can still hardly be modelled.

Another limitation is the fact that inside the models, we assume a CONSTANT
COMPOSITION. Especially in (pool) evaporation, one should expect the most volatile
components to be the first to evaporate, eventually leading to a time dependent changing
composition of both the evaporated mass and the remaining pool (liquid) . Please note that
RISKCURVES can not deal with a time varying compositions, so the mixture is to be
assumed to have a constant composition, even for gas and liquid phase.

Furthermore, it appeared that usage of chemical mixtures may also lead to MULTIPHASE
mixtures: one component may be solidified (lower that triple point / melting point) whereas
other components are in liquid or even vapour state. Especially because mixtures typically
have a boiling region, instead of ONE boiling point, liquid vapour equilibrium now can be a
temperature range. Typically, liquid/vapour combinations can be handled, but solid/liquid
mixtures will give a warning, and (pool) evaporation will stop if the "ideal mixing based" melting
point is reached. Smaller amount of solids are accepted in outflow and evaporation, but
viscosity and density are not corrected for occurrence of solid particles.

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It also need to be mentioned that the current database equations are based on simple
(quadratic) Equations Of State (EOS): only including compressibility based on second virial
coefficient. This means that calculation in SUPERCRITICAL CONDITIONS will be unreliable,
because density calculations in this region should be based on more complex EOS.

Warning 1: Although real world mixtures (such as gasoline) may include dozens of unique
component substances, many of these components occur only in very low fractions. Although
it is possible to include all these fragments into the mixture definition, these very low fractions
will hardly influence the thermodynamic behavior. Because of this low influence, and because
complex model calculations (such as TPDIS two phase discharge) will include iterations over
temperature dependent chemical properties, dramatically increasing calculation time, it is
advised to limit the number of components to a maximum of 10.

Warning 2: The database editor to create a mixture of every combination of components,


even practically impossible ones. One could add "Iron" to "Methane" and "Water", creating a
mixture of a solid, liquid and gas, unless at conditions above the boiling point of iron. Also,
some components will always react an cannot exist together. Be aware that any mixture can
be defined, but may lead to errors / warnings inside the model calculation. A phase check is
included a will try to catch potential mismatch in gas/liquid/solid state.

Mixture properties will be calculated using specific mixing rules dependent on the typical
property to be evaluated. By default, "Ideal mixing" is used, however, some properties require
a different approach, as listed below:

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- Explosion limits (LEL and UEL) : Are calculated using "Le Chatelier's"rule

- Viscosity: The liquid and vapour viscosity is calculated using "Kendal-Monroe" relation:

- Boiling points, Critical point temperature, Melting points or Triple point temperature: Highest
or Lowest value:

Because mixtures will have a boiling range, the mixture will start to boil at its lowest boiling
point. Also the first component arriving at its critical point will determine that we don't have a
pure liquid anymore, the first component starting to solidify will create a liquid/solid mixture.
For that reason, a boiling or critical point will be based on the lowest values, and the melting
or triple point are based on highest temperature. Inside pool evaporation, the ideal mixing
based melting point is used to determine to stop liquid evaporation. This is because in
gasoline-like mixtures, it is accepted that some cyclic of parafines may be solid, whereas the
main substance is still a liquid. In these liquid/solid mixture situations, the phase detection
routine give a warning because liquid density and viscosity will be less accurate due to some
components being in a solid state.

- Toxic properties (Probits, Threshold concentrations): Determined by "Most toxic" or


"Fractional value of most toxic":

Because there is no clear rule on how combine multiple toxic substances (toxics can have
different behavior: Narcotic or Irritating) the toxicity of a mixture will be based on the most
toxiccomponent. The most toxic component is defined as that component having the lowest
LD50 (30 min) concentration. The Probit B and Probit N will simply be taken from this
component, the Probit A and all toxic threshold will be corrected for the fraction of this (most
toxic) material available.

4.9.6 Converting Vs9 user chemicals


If users have been defining or editing chemicals, resulting in "user defined chemicals" in
version 9, these records can be imported in version 10 using the "Chemical convertor". This
tool can be accessed from the <Tools> menu, or be invoked through the separate shortcut in
de RISKCURVES program manager group.

Upon starting this converter, it will ask for the location of the version 9 chemical database file,
containing the user defined chemical definitions.

By default, the EFFECTS 9 database will be stored in something like "C:\ProgramData\TNO


\Effects 9.0\Databases\Chemicals.tci" however, this location may be altered by the user. In
this case, refer to the C:\Program Files (x86)\TNO\Effects 9.0\Datapath.dat file which is an
ASCII readable file containing the location of the database.

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After browsing to the required chemical database file, the importer will show the available user
defined chemical records. Simply select all or select specific names and press <Import>.
This will open a Save as dialog. Enter any descriptive file name (tci extension) but make sure
it is on a location with write access .

Upon conversion some feedback will be provided about the import results.

The newly created file needs to be added to the list of user defined chemicals in!

4.10 Mass and volume calculator


In some cases a model asks for a volume while you only have a mass available, in other
cases it is the other way around. The volume and mass calculator converts masses into
volumes and vice versa for both gases and liquids. It also supports unit conversions. This
calculator can be accessed from the "View" menu.

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The calculation is invoked as soon as something is typed or changed in the Mass of or


Volume of boxes. To change from mass conversion to volume conversion simply switch
to the other edit box.

NOTE!
Depending whether the chosen pressure and temperature fall within legal physical limits, a
result might be visible or not. For example if you choose a temperature above the critical
temperature, you will see no answer for a liquid mass/volume conversion. Thus, in some
cases you might discover that there is no result. In most cases this means that you are trying
to perform a conversion outside the physical limits (e.g. above the critical temperature, no
liquid phase exists, hence no mass of a liquid can be calculated).

4.11 Mortality/probit calculator


The mortality calculator (or Response calculator) is used for quick estimations of the fraction
of mortality when exposed to a concentration of a toxic chemical. It also supports unit
conversions between three different dose units. The calculator can be accessed from the
"View" menu.

Dependent upon the units of concentration and the molecular mass of the chemical that the
probits are to be calculated for, the a value of the probit a will differ. The probit calculator can
convert the value of the toxic probit as calculated for each of the three commonly- used units
for concentration: kg/m3, ppm or mg/m3.

Simply right click on the unit of the probits, and it will display other possible units, and convert
the current displayed value.

4.12 Geo-referencing images


Vector data in Map Layers exists in a real-world or map coordinate system, measured,
typically in meters. The x-coordinates increase from left to right and the y-coordinates
increase from the bottom to the top.

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This is quite different from a raster image represented by a Pixel Oriented Layer such as
bitmaps and JPG files. A bitmap is a raster image that is organized and measured by rows
and columns. Each cell has a row number and a column number. If the origin is located in the
upper left corner of the data, that cell would be identified as row 1, column 1.

Pixel based Image layers do not have a coordinate system. This means that the mapping
system assumes the lower left corner of the map as coordinate (0,0) and the upper right
coordinate as (x,y) where x and y are the number of pixels of the bitmap in the x and y
direction.

For Vector Layers and Pixel Layers to be displayed simultaneously, the rows and columns of
the image must be mapped into the x,y plane of a map coordinate system. An image-to-world
transformation that converts the image coordinates to map coordinates must be established.
Some image formats store geo-referencing information in the file header of the image or, in
the case of images that do not contain this geo-referencing information, facilities exist in other
products available from ESRI, for creating a file that contains the necessary transformation
parameters.

The file that contains the transformation parameters is called a world file. The world file
always takes precedence over any header information.

The utility supports various pixel format files: TIF, PNG, JPG, GIF and BMP files. The
corresponding world reference files have the extension TFW, PGW, JGW, GFW and BPW.

If these world reference files already exist, the image extent will already be shown, but a
projection coordinate system should be provided: the defined extent refers to a specific
coordinate system. In this case a message "No coordinate system found, Used default" will
be shown. Information about a projection system may be available IF a <filename>.PRJ file is
also provided. For that reason it is advised to keep these files with same name and different
extensions together.

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When importing pixel based images without geo-reference information, a manual reference is
required. The user has two different options to provide the information to be able to translate
the pixel information which are shown upon importing a background map: using Two Points
or using Length and 1 point

Method A: Georeference by using two points


Define the boundaries of a background map or two known coordinates on the map. After
selecting <Georeference by using two points>, define two coordinates by simply clicking on
the map.

After defining those points, the associated coordinates need to be provided in the fields X/Y of
point A and length.

Note 1: The coordinate units are defined by the selected projection system! These can be
changed to Lat/Long WGS84 degrees, allowing to use GOOGLE earth readouts. Use the
<right mouse> button to change map units

Note 2: It is often very convenient to zoom in on the area were a distance is known by using
the mouse scroll wheel.

If the map boundaries are known, simply click the upper left and lower right border and define
point A and point B. Provide the corresponding boundary values of these dots in the input
boxes.

The other possibility is to define TWO other known coordinates and provide the real world
coordinates in map units or Lat/Long decimal degree values.

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After selecting the <Apply> the < Show coordinates> check box can be used to verify the
system. After pressing the <OK> button, the adjusted reference file will be saved.

Method B Georeference by length to define dimensions by supplying a known distance


and one absolute coordinate.
By using the georeference by length, the user shall first select ONE reference point and then
a reference line (a ruler) by adding two more dots anywhere on the map.

Use the <Georeference by length> button to activate the georeferencing. After pinpointing the
first reference point with the mouse (a red point A is shown), continue selecting the two points
for which inter-distance is known. The first point reference can be a typical landmark using an
absolute projection system coordinate system or a plant center which can be referred as to
as 0,0 when using a relative coordinate system.The reference line should be a location on the
map with a known distance. In Google Earth screen dumps, this may be the distance
identification in the lower left corner.

This option assumes that the chart has an isometric X- and Y axis scaling: e.g. 10 pixels on
the X-direction will have the same distance as 10 pixels in the Y direction. Press <Apply> and
<OK> to save the reference file.

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4.13 Risk transects


Risk transects are graphical presentations of the individual risk along a defined line on the
map.

Start defining a transect by selecting the "draw transect" toolbar button or the "draw transect"
entry in the map popup menu. Simply drag on the map to draw a line and after defining the
line, the corresponding transcet graph will be drawn in the right bottom window. Note that the
transect graph can be hidden or shown, use the "View", "Transect graph" menu entry to
activate/deactivate the view.

Since the transect graph is rather small in its default position, this panel can be dragged and
resized as a floating panel. All graphic functionality for graphs is also available for the transect
graph panel.

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4.14 Exporting consequence data


As of version 10.0.6, RISKCURVES is equipped with a file exporter, that allows to save
specific consequence results to a CSV export file. This CSV file can easily be opened as a
spreadsheet, allowing further prost-processing.

NOTE: The exporter will only export "consequence" results: values from the
consequence calculation that is used to calculate risk values.

To export risk results, a straightforward export of contours or grids is possible in the


legend panel popup menu, or a FN graph export from the graph popup menu.

The "export wizard" is started by activating the File..Export.. Consequences to CSV in the
main menu. This will open a form that allows to specify the typical consequence results to
export.

The first wizard form ill ask to select the typical models for export, one can select ALL
phenomena models, for all defined weather classes, or make any sub-selection from all
available scenario definitions within the current project:

After this first selection, the wizard will perform a can to collect all input and result parameters
in the selected consequence models.

Depending on the number of different consequence models selected, this can be a huge list,
but the user can expand both "INPUT" and "OUTPUT" list to define the specific inputs and
results of their interest.

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If the selected output parameters contain graphs, which are lists of values the next dialog box
will ask to specify the units in which the data is stored.

After specifying these units, a file save dialog will open, asking for a location and name for the
CSV file to store.

This file can now be opened in a spreadsheet and will contain all selected parameters in
dedicated columns for the different weather classes.

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5 Technical backgrounds

5.1 QRA Definitions


5.1.1 Calculation Set
A calculation set is a combination of system setting, a meteorological definition, population
and accident (Loss of Containment) scenarios definitions for which Individual Risk and
Societal Risk are being calculated.

A calculation set will have results in terms of Individual Risk Contours and Societal Risk
Graphs and Societal Risk Maps.

A calculation set is a typical input definition for a single QRA calculation: it contains all input
that influencing the result. Since users often want to compare the change in risk due a
modification (of population, scenarios), RISKCURVES can contain multiple Calculations Sets
in one project (and thus file).

A calculation set always contains the sub nodes Calculation settings, a Meteo data node,
Population (if societal risk calculation is required), stationary equipment and transport
equipment, because these contents together determine the result of a calculation.

A calculation set has a few settings, allowing to either include or exclude the societal risk
calculation, societal risk maps and consequence risk contours.

5.1.2 Calculation Settings


Calculation settings is a typical collector or grouping node.

It doesnt have its own parameters, but combines several groups of parameters, to be applied
to all input contained in a calculation set. Typical parameters are Accuracy describing
parameters influencing calculation accuracy and speed, Vulnerability settings describing the
relation between physical phenomena and damage (lethality), and Environment parameters,
describing ambient temperature, humidity, solar radiation etc. for the typical location.

It is also possible to calculate a Consequence Risk, which give the risk of exceeding a
specific consequence level threshold. If this option is activated, additional "consequence risk
threshold levels" need to be set.

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5.1.3 Accuracy parameters


Accuracy settings contain parameters that influence the accuracy of the calculation, and very
often also calculation speed, since speed and accuracy are somehow connected.

Lowest significant frequency


This is the lowest frequency that will be taken into consideration. If the frequency of an
event is lower than this value, it will be neglected.

Cell size for risk grid


This parameter defines the grid resolution of the contour map. Note that contours will be
calculated based on a Iso Risk grid. By default a cell size of 10 meter is used. However if
the range of the affected area becomes very big (routes of many kilometers, toxic events
with effect areas upon many kilometers) this might lead to enormous grid (> 10^6 cells). In
those situations a re-sampling will be performed avoiding large memory usage.
As of version 9.012, this parameter is also used to influence the accuracy of the societal
risk calculation:
After the consequence calculation, the resulting lethality footprint is translated into a
"societal risk response" grid to be able to superimpose (a wind direction and stability class
dependent) lethality on the population. The cell resolution of these grids can be adjusted
with the provided value.
However, for large effect phenomena, this would lead to huge memory loads, because all
weather classes and every potential wind-direction has its own list of or "affected" cells.
For that reason, scenario's that would use more than 100*100 cells as its "response
footprint" will be forced to use an increased cell size. Furthermore, scenarios with shorter
maximum effect distances (less than 100 mtr) will always be calculated at the standard
accuracy of 10 mtr cells.
The usage of this relatively small "response grid" size ensures that even when using a
population distribution in much bigger cells (50 mtr), an accurate estimation of the number
of lethal victims is achieved. (e.g. in case of a partial overlap of the lethal footprint with the
population grid)
Note that population grids, used for calculation of societal risk, have a cell size that

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deviates from the risk grid cell size.


Number subsectors FN calculation

By default RISKCURVES defines 12 wind directions. This implies however that


RISKCURVES can miss some population concentrations when it performs societal risk
calculations.

This is shown in the left drawing. Two clouds for a 30 wind direction (=360/12) miss the
important object resulting in risk underestimation. In the right drawing, 15 wind direction (=24
wind directions) were chosen resulting in a hit of the object.

The value in this field defaults to 9 (108 wind directions).

Number of subsectors for FX calculation

About the same explanation as for FN calculations holds for individual risk calculations. Again,
a hypothetical person could be missed, especially where he stands far away from the cloud
and the cloud tip is relatively small when compared with the sector circumference. In general
when this factor is increased (values up to 20 are useful) the individual risk will decrease as
Riskcurves will calculate more accurately the risk caused by overlap/underlap of a cloud
compared with the sector width. The drawback is more calculation duration. More narrow
clouds have a smaller risk than wide clouds which is obvious as wide clouds can overlap to
adjacent sectors. This methodology takes it all into account at a value of 20.

Inter accident distance FX

When calculating individual risk contours along a transport route, contours can become
caterpillar shaped instead of a smooth line. This is caused when the inter-accident distance
used to calculate individual risk is too large. The factor defaults to 50 mtr which means that
possible accident points are located 50 meter from each other. When using scenario's with
effect distances lower than 50 mtrs, is is advised to narrow the inter accident distance.

Inter accident distance FN

This factor is used to influence the inter-accident distance during societal risk calculations.

Consider the following example:

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The above example illustrates a road transport. RISKCURVES will generate accident points
and calculate the size of the gas clouds.

In the left situation the accident points are separated too far and therefore the calculation
misses an important object because the clouds can not reach it. In the right in situation, more
accident points are generated and the object is hit.

The factor defaults to 50 mtr which means that possible accident points are located 50 meter
from each other. When using scenario's with maximum effect distances much lower than 50
mtrs, is is advised to narrow the inter accident distance.

Maximum number of accident points

To limit an enormous number of calculations when RISKCURVES want to generate accident


points for long routes but small consequences, this is the maximum number of accident
points it will use

5.1.4 Vulnerability parameters


Vulnerability parameters define how a specific physical effect is translated towards damage.

For toxic materials, this is derived from their toxic probits which are stored in the chemical
database, but for flame contact, heat radiation and overpressure, dedicated damage
translation can be defined..

Lethal fraction for present in flash fire


This is the fraction of mortality that is used within the flame envelop of a flash fire.

Leave it to 1 unless you have good reasons to change it.

Lethal fraction for present in flame contour


This is the fraction of mortality is used within the dimensions of a flame contour.

Leave it to 100% unless you have good reasons to change it.

Heat radiation level total destruction

This parameter defines the heat radiation level that will be associated with total destruction.
Anything above this level will result in 100% lethality

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Heat Radiation Exposure Duration

This value determines the maximum duration of exposure to heat load, as used in
consequence calculations. Default is set to: 20.0 seconds

Protection factor clothing

The protection factor applied for clothing, used for societal risk calculations on heat radiation.
A probit calculation will be applied on heat radiation, leading to a lethality. This lethality is
corrected with this factor to obtain the damage in case of societal (protected) calculations

Heat radiation damage probits

By default, the vulnerability model (probit function) as described in the Green Book [4] has
been used for the exposure to heat radiation:

with q = the heat radiation level in [W/m 2] and t = the exposure duration in [sec], which is
assumed to be maximum 20 sec (defined by parameter max heat radiation exposure
duration). The probit value is transferred to a fraction of mortality (0..1) afterwards. This
implies a probit A of -36.38, Probit B = 2.56, and probit N = 4/3

Because some countries are accustomed to use other probits, these A, B and N values can
be modified.

The methodology described above is valid for individual and societal risk, but for inside
population a protection of 100% is assumed, as long as the level is lower than the heat
radiation total destruction level.

How to convert a probit to a fraction of mortality


The probit value Pr as mentioned several times in the chapters before varies between 2 and
9. To convert the probit value to a percentage of mortality, the table below is used.

The probit values are listed within the table itself. From the side and the top of the table, the
percentage of mortality can be read. For example: A probit value of 4.01 (second row)
corresponds with a value of 16% mortality.

% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

0 2.67 2.95 3.12 3.25 3.36 3.45 3.52 3.59 3.66


10 3.72 3.77 3.82 3.87 3.92 3.96 4.01 4.05 4.08 4.12
20 4.16 4.19 4.23 4.26 4.29 4.33 4.36 4.39 4.42 4.45
30 4.48 4.50 4.53 4.56 4.59 4.61 4.64 4.67 4.69 4.72
40 4.75 4.77 4.80 4.92 4.85 4.87 4.90 4.92 4.95 4.97
50 5.00 5.03 5.05 5.08 5.10 5.13 5.15 5.18 5.20 5.23
60 5,25 5.28 5.31 5.33 5.36 5.39 5.41 5.44 5.47 5.50

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70 5.52 5.55 5.58 5.61 5.64 5.67 5.71 5.74 5.77 5.81
80 5.84 5.88 5.92 5.95 5.99 6.04 6.08 6.13 6.18 6.23
90 6.28 6.34 6.41 6.48 6.55 6.64 6.75 6.88 7.05 7.33
99 7.33 7.37 7.41 7.46 7.51 7.58 7.65 7.75 7.88 8.09

Pressure damage based on

The translation to damage by overpressure can be defined by

1. Using two pressure levels: total destruction and inside (glas) fragments.

2. Using a probit based on Peak pressure: Pr = A + B * ln(PeakPressure^N)

3. Using a probit based on exposed pressure impulse Pr = A + B * ln(Pressure Impulse^N)

In case 3, the pressure impulse is calculated as (0.5 * peakpressure * positive phase


duration). Method 3 cannot be applied when using the TNT overpressure calculation, because
that method does not provide a positive phase duration answer; one needs to use the Multi
Energy method for method 3.

Pressure level total destruction

This value is used to define the peak pressure level at which inside and outside lethality
is assumed to be 100% (total destruction zone). Default value is 300 mBar (0.3 Bar)
Lethal fraction pressure total destruction zone

Defines the lethality within the total destruction pressure level zone. By default 100% (fraction
1)

Lethal fraction Pressure inside damage

All areas with pressure between "total destruction" and "inside damage" levels, will be treated
with this corresponding inside damage lethality level. The lethality fraction will only be applied
in societal risk calculations, on inside population.

Perform toxic indoors calculation

The toxic exposure inside can be calculated based on the actual concentration time profile
and ventilation rate. This calculation is invoked by selecting "Yes" in this setting. The
calculation is performed inside the Dispersion Toxic dose models which will also present a
Inside lethality grid (expert parameter).

The inside lethality is strongly influenced by passage time of the cloud, and ventilation ratio.

Fixed indoors outdoors toxic ratio

By default, the indoor toxic calculation uses a ratio of 1/10: lethality inside is one tenth of
lethality outside.

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For long release durations, high exposures, or high ventilation ratios, this may be a very
optimistic assumption: even an outside dose which is much higher than 100% lethality still
has maximum 100% lethality, thus 10% lethality inside. For that reason it is advised to use
Toxic Indoor calculation method

Ventilation ratio
This is the frequency with which the whole air volume of a room gets renewed.

Toxic Exposure duration


The exposure duration is used to calculate a toxic dose, integrating the concentration
(modified including the probit constants) as function of time over that period. (see inclined
lines in graph at start of exposure).
The duration of exposure is needed as the dose increases the longer one is exposed to an
effect. Normally, a default value of 30min (1800s) is used.

If in a given location the effect duration is lower than the exposure duration (the passage
time of the toxic cloud is around 60s and the user chose an exposure duration of 1800s)
EFFECTS will internally rearrange the exposure duration so there is not a loss of accuracy
in the result of the integration process.

Example
The exposure duration is a powerful tool to model evacuation or sheltering. Say, a release
happens and people can find shelter after 10 minutes. If we assume that people can find
100% shelter inside houses we can model this as follows:
1. Set the start of exposure to zero
2. Set the exposure duration to the time that people can find shelter (600s)
In this case the model starts the exposure at t = zero, which means that people close to
the source of release will suffer from the effects but people further away from the release
will be exposed to lower concentrations because the cloud has not reached them yet. All
these are taken into account by the model.

NOTE 1: Different methods of applying this exposure duration are possible, see "exposure
duration based on" parameter.

NOTE 2: By using the option "perform toxic indoors calculation" the dispersion model can
take into account that people inside houses will still be exposed to (lower) concentrations.

NOTE 3: For heat radiation, a dedicated "heat exposure duration" parameter is used, which
is default 20 seconds, because the human reaction to intensive heat radiation is much
quicker.

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5.1.5 Environment parameters


Environmental parameters define typical surrounding environment values, used within various
consequence calculations. Because separate calculations are being performed for day/night
weatherclass situations, some parameters have two (day and night) values.

Ambient Temperature
The average yearly temperature or the temperature you want to use for all calculations. In
general, the higher the temperature the larger the effects and consequences. Mostly a value
between 9 and 25 degrees Celsius is used.

Ground / Surface/ Bund temperature


The average yearly temperature of the subsoil that you want to use for pool evaporation
calculations. In general, the higher the temperature the larger the evaporation rate and
consequences.

Water temperature
The average yearly temperature of the water that you want to use for pool evaporation on
water calculations. In general, the higher the temperature the larger the evaporation rate and
consequences.

Air relative humidity


The relative humidity of the atmosphere due to the partial vapor pressure of water in the
atmosphere.

The relative humidity influences the atmospheric transmissivity. For the Dutch situation the
normal variation is between 50 - 90%.

Fraction of CO2 in Atmosphere


The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere can be used for transmissivity calculations of solar
light. An average value is 0.03%

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Atmospheric pressure
The outside pressure is used in various dispersion and outflow calculations.

Solar Radiation Flux

The pool evaporation model uses an overall heat balance for the pool to calculate the
evaporation. This heat balance also includes solar heat radiation.

Users can choose whether to use a fixed value for solar heat radiation, or calculate the actual
value based on day, month, cloud cover and latitude of the location.

The solar heat radiation flux is the actual value for the heat flux as used in pool evaporation
calculations.

Note that values may range from negative (at night: earth radiates towards sky) to 1500
Watts/m 2 depending on the latitude, cloud coverage, and day of the year.

When the actual value has to be calculated, several other input values are required: earth
location latitude value, cloud cover and day/month of the year.

5.1.6 Meteorological data


The meteorological data definition contains the choice for the meteorological station to be
used. Any meteorological data set contains probabilities for typical weather classes (Pasquill
stability class, wind-speed, day or night) occurring at the location (see meterological
distribution). The number of weather classes defined will determine how many damage
definitions / consequence models are contained under a scenario (e.g only D5 and F2 or 6
different classes!).

The probability of a risk occurring at a specific location is highly influenced by the probability of
the wind blowing from the accident location towards that location. In order to take this into
account, a meteorological definition has to be supplied. Meteo data consists of the definition of
typical Pasquill stability class with a wind speed (e.g. D5 or F2), the probability of that class
occurring, and the probability for the wind-directions for that class and is applicable for the
region where the scenarios are to be defined. This data is usually supplied by meteorological
station at airports etc. and can be predefined for met-stations at your country.

A new meteo-station definition can be added under menu Edit, Option default meteo
distribution and the browse button:

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All definitions that are provided in Options can be selected in the combobox in the input panel of the Meteo data node:

Once a meteo station location has been entered, the red label will turn to black, illustrating
that acceptable input has been provided.

Note that the provided (Dutch) meteo station definitions all contain 6 weather classes, but it is
also possible to use only two any other number of different Pasquill classes. Using only two
classes imply that calculation time will be reduced since the consequence models need to
perform two calculations.

The spatial distribution of occurance of specific wind directions can be visualised in a


windrose view

5.1.7 Population
Population definition node contains the definition of population by means of grids (a matrix
like definition of cells) or polygons (area definition with number of inhabitants).

Population can be added by using the Population Import Wizard, or by manually adding a
polygon and defining an are with population. See defining Population.

The total cumulation of all grids and polygons under the grouping node will be used to create a
total population grid, used within the calculation sets Societal Risk calculation.

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Both day an night grid will use a separate "Inside fraction" determining the fraction of the
people that are inside houses and have a some degree of protection (see vulnerability
settings)

When using "temporary polygons", it is possible to use a dedicated "inside fraction" and
"utilisation fraction" (a presence factor).

Temporary population can be used to include the presence of large crowds (e.g. festivals,
sport events) during a FRACTION of the time. This is particular relevant if large numbers of
people are outside (thus unprotected).

Note: When using many (say more than 10) temporary polygons that can be exposed to the
same event (when they are close to one another, so within the potential lethality footprint of a
single event), this procedure can get time consuming because all potential combinations of
these areas need to be evaluated!!. As an example, just for three temporary population areas
we need to evaluate: A and B and C exposed, A and B exposed, A and C exposed, B and C
exposed, only A, only B , only C, and no area (just base population) exposed, where every
combination has its own probability of occurrence!

5.1.8 Equipment
Equipment: a location or route on which scenarios are being analysed (distinguishing
STATIONARY and TRANSPORT equipment). Note that these nodes can be expanded, they
are placeholders or grouping nodes for a list of coordinates, or routes.

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5.1.9 Scenario
Scenario: a Loss Of Containment scenario occurring at an equipment (either a stationary
location or a transport route), which has a specific failure frequency, and contains
consequence definitions: a description of the scenario in terms of substance, quantities,
release situation or resulting damage.

Once stationary equipment locations or transport equipment routes have been defined, typical
LOC (Loss Of Containment) scenarios belonging to the equipment can be added. Select the
equipment and press <Right Mouse><Add scenario> and select the type of scenario to be
added from the branch of models:

EFFECT models are consequence calculations performed by single phenomena


consequence models. They can either be based on atmospheric dispersion of toxic or
flammable gasses or based on heat radiation (Bleve , poolfire of jetfire phenomena).

Combined models support multiple phenomena; if a material is both flammable and toxic, or
direct and delayed iginition can occur, these combined LOC model chains will distinguish
several phenomena.

The combined models are supplied for Gaseous, Liquid and Two phase materials, and are
available for specific release cases. A release can be either an instantaneous release (called
G1 scenario in the Purple Book), a release within 10 minutes (G2 scenario) or a leak scenario
with a specific hole size (G3 scenario). If the user doesnt know the state of , one can select
the Unified LOC model, which determines the state itself, and provides a choice to evaluate

Damage definition s can be used to enter pre-calculated consequence areas. The damage
models are also dedicated to a specific phenomenon.

Another possibility to add scenario is by using the floating panel: Select an equipment node,
and hover the mouse over the white line on the left border of the RISKCURVES window. A
model selection panel will unfold, illustrating different possibilities by family name:

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After the scenario has been added, the definition itself needs to be provided.

A scenario definition consists of two elements: a frequency part and a consequence part.

The tree visualises this as two nodes of the scenario: the scenario node and the
corresponding (consequence) modelset. For a scenario, main parameters are base
frequency (expressed as chance of occurrence per year), a possible correction factor (which
can be used to represent risk reduction actions), and a daytime fraction. The daytime fraction
can be used to express the situation that an activity only takes place during day or night time.
By default, this fraction should be the average occurrence of daytime situation, according to
the meteorological data definition (e.g. for Netherlands 44% is daytime). If another fraction is
used, this implies that the activity is predominantly shifted into day or night time.

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Combined models also require entering a fraction for direct ignition, delayed ignition, BLEVE
and explosion phenomenon. For single phenomenon models, is it assumed that this fraction
is already included in the base frequency. Pressing the < Defaults> button will quickly enter
feasible frequency / probability values here, but is not advised because failure frequencies
tend to be very specific for the typical situation.

5.1.10 Modelset
A Modelset is the placeholder for the actual consequence definition. It contains either a
damage definition or consequence calculation, which is defined for a number meteorological
conditions

It is possible to define altered input values for specific weather class conditions by selecting
the weatherclass from the combobox.

5.1.11 Cumulation sets


A cumulation set can be used to make a dedicated cumulation of risk sources that does not
contain all equipment or all scenario's, presented corresponding SR or IR results.

Very often one is not interested in the fully accumulated results of all scenarios, but want to
know the contribution of a specific subset of scenario, e.g. only flammable scenarios or
accumulation of specific vessels or equipments. Such a subset can be made using a
Cumulation Set. Define a new set by selecting the Cumulation sets node and selecting
<Right Mouse> <Add cumulation set>. Give it a descriptive name (e.g. Only Flammables)
and use the checkboxes to select which equipments or separate scenarios should be
incorporated within this accumulation. After pressing the <Calculate> button, which only
takes a few seconds, the subset results will be presented.

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It is important to realise that a Cumulation set can also be used to ADD different calculation
sets. This way, it is possible to combine calculations for different parts of a site, for example
containing different production processes, and add them all together in one result as a
cumulation. This cumulation result will include Iso Risk contours, Societal risk graphs and SR
maps.

5.1.12 Comparison sets


A Comparison set allows to compare results for Calculations Sets or Cumulation sets; it will
provide multiple graphs and contours.

RISKCURVES has the possibility to perform multiple QRA calculations, and compare results.
This can be used to validate the influence of a changing population, or generally: a changed
risk situation.

To perform multiple QRA calculations, the most rigorous way would be to copy and paste an
entire calculation set: select the node for the calculation set, press <Ctrl-C> and <Ctrl-V> (or
use edit copy / paste) and a complete calculation set will be added. Again, use descriptive
names for the different calculation sets, e.g. Larger storage capacity or Including new
Urban Development population and modify the contents of the copied calculation set
accordingly.

After calculation (which may take some time again), these results can be compared using the
comparison Set.

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However, in many cases it is possible to add a new or modified scenario to the standard
calculation set and use a Cumulation set to exclude this from being added to the result. Since
all defined Cumulation Sets are also included within a Comparison set, this can be used to
verify the influence of a modified scenario, without the need to copy the entire calculation set.
Realise that copying a full calculation set will result in big projects with many duplicate
scenarios.

To start comparing different calculation sets or cumulation sets, define a Comparison set by
selecting the node and selecting <Right mouse> <Add comparison set> . All calculation sets
and cumulation sets of the project will be visible here. Use the checkboxes to include or
exclude a set. When comparing individual risk contours, only one level of interest will be
shown. This particular level can be modified within the presentation settings.

5.1.13 Analysis points


An Analysis point provides the possibility to perform a risk contribution analysis for a specific
coordinate.

Every point will provide an Individual Risk Ranking report, and when societal risk maps are
activated, it will also present the corresponding societal risk curve or societal risk contribution
for that location.

Analysis point can be used to report risk contribution at specific user definable locations.

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Any analysis point will produce a risk ranking per scenario, based on risk contribution at that
location. Furthermore, the societal risk FN graph of all scenarios affecting that location will be
presented, illustrating the severity of the societal risk at that location. This FN graph per
location is the base for the societal risk area map. The FN contribution graph will illustrate the
societal risk curve for the typical population within this population grid cell of this coordinate.
These location specific FN graphs are used as the bases for the SR contribution map.

Analysis point will be illustrated on the map when the "analysis point" is the active component
in the tree or whenever the "Show equipment locations" toolbar option has been selected.

An analysis point can be defined from any map view illustrating the Iso Risk Contours, such
as calculation set or the cumulation set.

To add an analysis point, use < Right mouse> < Add analysis point> on the analysis points
node, or use < Right mouse> , < Add analysis point> on top of the map to pinpoint a
coordinate from the map.

The results will be visible after a calculation, and presented in a table in the report tab.

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5.1.14 Consequence Risk


The Consequence Risk (CR) is defined as the chance per year that a specific threshold
level of a physical effect (overpressure, heat radiation, toxic load) is exceeded. The CR
Contours on a map present locations were the CR has identical values.

Where individual risk contours illustrate the chance of lethality on a location, consequence
level contours illustrate the chance that a specific pressure level, heat radiation level or toxic
threshold is exceeded. This particular information is used in facility siting (positioning of
buildings and constructions showing the chance of them being exposed to a specific effect
level) and potential injury risk evaluation.

The specific levels of interest to be shown in the contours must be defined in Consequence
risk settings where heat load and toxic load may be also be presented in dose levels.

Note that changing a threshold levels requires an adapted risk calculation so recalculation is
required upon change. (which is not the case for a change in "presentation settings") .
Because the consequence Risk contours are specific for a defined threshold level, the
contour legend TITLE describes the levels shown for the different phenomenon.

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5.1.15 Damage definition


The damage definition can be used to enter a known consequence area. The use of a
damage definition, avoids the requirement of a consequence calculation by the internal
models. If for a typical industrial site, various identical equipment are available, it might be
useful to perform one single calculation, and add the resulting damage zones as a damage
definition, thus avoiding calculation time.

Damage definitions always include ONE specific phenomenon, such as (circular) Bleve and
local cloud fire, explosion, jet- and poolfire, or toxic damage zones. depending on the typical
definition, the number of parameters might differ.

Some definitions use values that are entered in a table. Enter the values (distance is row
ascending, lethal fraction should be row descending) and press < down> to go to the next
row. Is is also possible to copy/paste these values from a spreadsheet.

While entering values in a table, a implicit test is being performed on the consistency of the
input, the damage dimensions should be row ascending and lethality row descending. If this
requirement is not fulfilled, the definition will have a RED label.

A Bleve damage definition requires input:

- radius of the fireball ; within this radius, 100% lethality is assumed.

- radius of peak overpressure ; within this radius, 100% lethality is assumed.

- radius of 25 kW/m2; within this radius, 100% lethality is assumed.

- lethality unprotected outside: within this table, users can define lethality versus distance.

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A Local Cloud fire damage definition requires input:

- radius of the flashfire; within this radius, 100% lethality (can be overridden with vulnerability
setting lethal fraction flashfire) is assumed.

An Explosion damage definition requires as input:

- Chance flash AND explosion: for an explosion, both an overpressure and flash fire
phenomenon can occur. Provided the situation that there is an ignition, (and thus a flashfire),
there is a probability of an overpressure effect happening. This probability is defined is this
parameter "Chance Flash AND Explosion" .

Note that this assumption might differ from other QRA models; it is assumed that
overpressure cannot occur without a flash fire, so we have either a flashfire or a flashfire with
overpressure effects (and not either overpressure or fire damage) .

-Length and weight of flashfire define the size of the damage zone of the flame envelope,
described as an ellipse.

-The offset of the flashfire can be used to define the distance from release location where the
ignition takes place. The offset defines the distance to the boundary of the flame envelope.

- The offset of the overpressure effects can be used to change the center location of the
overpressure. By default, the overpressure centre is assumed to be the centre of the cloud.
This overpressure offset will move the explosion centre, a positive value will move the
overpressure centre away from the release centre.

- Readius pressure level total destruction and Inside damage. Overpressure damage zones
are being defined as two circles: one (high pressure) zone which will have total destruction
(typically 0.3 bar overpressure level) and on giving only inside damage due to glass
fragmentation. The associated vulnerability is derived from vulnerability settings lethal fraction
total destruction pressure level and lethal fraction inside pressure level

A pool- and jetfire damage definition uses:

- Flame Length, width and offset: defines the elliptical shape of the flame itself. The offset is
an offset of the tail of the flame, relative to the release location. Within the flame envelope the
lethality as defined within vulnerability setting lethal fraction in flame contour is used.

- Lethality contour levels: these length, width and offset values are used to define elliptical
shaped damage zones.

These contour levels are used to describe concentric ellipses with a specific lethality level
describing a lethality footprint. Note that an interpolation is used to translate a footprint
towards such a footprint. Furthermore, a negative offset can be used for POOL fires,
whereas a JET fire can have a positive offset: it can have a lift off thus moved away from the
release point.

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As of version 10 it is also possible to use a "Blockmode" distribution of lethality: In this case


no interpolation will be performed within the contours, but every within every defined contour
level, an equal fixed lethality level will be applied. Using this "blockmode" will usually result in
smaller Individual risk contours, and potentially smaller societal risk.

A toxic damage definition uses:

- Lethality contour levels for OUTSIDE and INSIDE: these length, width and offset values are
used to define elliptical shaped damage zones.

5.1.16 Consequence Risk levels


The consequence risk section in calculation settings is used to define the specific threshold
levels, for which consequence risk exceeding contours are generated.

The input parameters provided here offer the possibility to define for which level these
contours will be drawn. Note that the specific levels will also be added to the legend
description, because a contour for 20 kPa overpressure will be different from the 10 kPa
contour!

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For heat radiation and toxic consequence, it is also possible to use Dose based levels.

For heat dose, the unit conversion towards non-SI units will ALWAYS be based on a probit N
of 4/3, so it is advised to use the SI unit [s*(W/m^2)^N], the internal calculation utilizesa heat
dose calculation based on vulnerability defined probit N . For a toxic load, a specific Chemical
needs to be selected, because the dose calculation is dependent of the chemical probit N!.
Future version may include choices for AEGL or ERPG based chemical independent levels, if
those values have been provided in the database.

Threshold overpressure
This is the overpressure value (in mBar) for which we want to calculate the distance from
the center mass position where it is reached (output value). It is also the threshold value to
be used when calculating the output contour plot of all the positions where this
overpressure is reached.

Calculate heat risk by:

When using "Consequence risk contours" option of a calculation set, specific thresholds for
heat radiation, overpressure and toxicity will have to be set.

For a heat consequence risk, it can be chosen to use either a Heat radiation intensity level
(kW/m2 unit) or a heat dose unit (kW/m2^1.33*time)

Threshold heat radiation level


This is the heat radiation level for which we want to calculate the distance from the center
mass position where it is reached (output value). It is also the threshold value to be used
when calculating the output contour plot of all the positions where this heat radiation level is
reached.

Calculate toxic risk by:

When using "Consequence risk contours" option of a calculation set, specific thresholds for
heat radiation, overpressure and toxicity will have to be set.

For a toxicity risk, it can be chosen to use either a concentration level (kg/m3, ppm, vol%, mg/
m3 ect) or a toxic dose unit (consentration^n*time) . Note that when using a dose, the
chemcial must be selected because the n probit will be fixed.

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Threshold concentration
Concentration value the program will use (if "User defined" was selected in "Predefined
concentration" input box) to generate the concentration contour plot.
In other words, this is the value of the concentration to be displayed in the contour plot.
Apart from a contour "at time T" (concentration model) the outer contour of the specified
threshold can be displayed, illustrating how far a specific threshold can reach. This
threshold will default be LFL in flammable cloud models, but can be user defined and
includes choices like IDLH, but also ERPG or AEGL concentrations. The available choices
will be read from the chemical database. If the values are not provided, the user can
manually ADD a concentration threshold to the substance. (See chemical database).
A word of warning is required here when using these threshold for toxic materials, because
although AEGL and ERPG are concentration thresholds, they are associated to a specific
exposure duration!
For instantaneous and short duration semi-continuous releases, the maximum distance to
concentrations may be very large, but has no meaning if exposure duration is not taken into
account.

For exposure duration associated concentration thresholds (such as ERPG1,2,3, AEGL


1,2 3), it is strongly advised to use the Mortality/Probit calculator from the EFFECTS tools
menu to obtain the associated dose for the corresponding exposure duration. Then use
the toxic dose model to derive the contour for the calculated associated dose.

5.1.17 Societal Risk


The Societal Risk (SR) is defined as the chance per year that a group of a specific size
becomes lethal victim of an accident with dangerous substances. The Societal Risk is
presented in a FN curve, presenting the frequency (chance) on a logarithmic Y axis versus
the number of victims on a logarithmic X-axis.

It is also referred to as "Group Risk"

5.1.18 Individual Risk


The Individual Risk (IR) is defined as the chance per year that a person on a specific
location, who is continually and unprotected present at that spot, is victim of an accident with
dangerous substances. The Iso Risk Contours on a map present locations were the IR has
identical values.

In some countries the Individual risk is being referred as "Locational Risk" indicating the the
value is valid for one specific location or coordinate

5.1.19 Iso Risk Contours


The individual risk criteria assumes 100% presence and an unprotected situation outside. A
so-called Iso Risk Contour can be drawn by connecting all points with equal Individual Risk.

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The Individual Risk can also be presented in a so-called FX curve, which presents the fraction
lethal versus distance from the release point, for different wind-directions.

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Risk contours are available on the level of a calculation set, cumulation sets, comparison sets
and individual equipments.

A Risk transect can be provide for a specific line track. Such a transect will provide the risk as
a function of the place along this track.

5.1.20 Societal Risk (FN) Curve


The Societal Risk Curve (FN-curve) presents the cumulated risk that a group of specific size
will be killed. The FN curve is depicted as a two dimension graph, using a logarithmic scale
on frequency F (Y-axis) and number of victims N (X-axis) axiss. The curve is interpreted
using a Guide value, which is a line that should preferably not be crossed. RISKCURVES
will present a Guide Ratio R value, indicating the distance to this guide value (a guide ratio
>1 implies exceeding the guide line), and also presents the Expected value E which is the
size of the area below the FN curve.

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A FN curve appears to be not very easy to understand or explain. The curve is the result of
spatially distributed risk sources that may influence a geographically distributed population
distribution, whereas the result only present a curve. Questions that often raise are: Do we
have a problem and Where is this problem or What is causing this problem. To be able
to answer these kind of questions, a Societal Risk Map was developed and these
presentations are now available within RISKCURVES.

5.1.21 Project file


This RISKCURVES Project file contains all settings and input to be used for a calculation. The file
extension is .Riskcurves and it is stored a zipped XML file.

5.1.22 SR Maps
SR (Societal Risk) Maps is basically a geographical "Area Specific Societal Risk"
presentation of a societal risk, being a two dimensional curve.

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As a result of the demand for a visualization of the societal risk, a new type of presentation
was developed in 2007. The question was raised when a societal risk calculation is fed with
geographical based information on population, and geographical based scenario locations,
why can we not see a geographical distribution of the societal risk.

Such a presentation would be very convenient for emergency response (were are the people
who are threatened by accident) or urban planning activities (how much space left for
population without exceeding societal risk limits: the guide value)

To provide answers to both question two types of graphs were developed: the Societal Risk
Area Map and the Societal Risk Contribution map.

The Societal Risk Area map gives an indication of which areas are affected and
the height of the risk

whereas

The Societal risk Contribution Map gives an indication which cells contribute
to the societal risk

The bases for the presentation is that every grid cell from the population grid has its own FN
curve. In the case of the Contribution map, this curve relates to the victims within this
population cell. The higher the risk of this cell (expressed as the expected value of the curve)
the more red the color will be.

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For the contribution map, the expected value is used to translate the two dimensional FN
graph into a color. The type of coloring can be adjusted, it appears that using a 6 color levels
(use legend ) provides the best contrast, but other coloring might improve the visualization.

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This way the curve represents the full societal risk of scenario's for the area. Note that this
area bounded FN curve will never exceed the overall FN curve for all cells.

For the societal Risk Maps it is important to understand that the risk is determined from the
receivers point of view (instead of from source).

Furthermore, because of the nature of the method, cumulating of various risk sources is
possible: transport & stationary installations, small & large scenarios

The idea behind this new type of visualisation is that this provides a supplementary view of
what is happening, and the maps facilitate considering societal risk in early stage of planning
process:

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- the SR Area map shows areas with restrictions

- the SR Contribution map shows which areas contribute most (emergency response)

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5.2 The consequence models within a modelset


Consequence models will enable users to assess the physical effects of accidental releases
of toxic and flammable chemicals. The consequence models inside RISKCURVES are based
on a series of models from the Yellow Book [3rd edition, second print 2005], that allow
detailed modelling and quantitative assessment of:

Release rate: discharge from a vessel or a pipe of gas, liquid or pressurized liquefied gas:
vapour, liquid, two-phase and spray release
Pool evaporation: from land or water surfaces of a boiling or a non-boiling liquid
Atmospheric dispersion: neutral gas, heavy gas and turbulent free jet
Vapour cloud explosion: the TNO multi-energy method or TNT model
Heat radiation from fires: BLEVE, poolfire, or jet fire.

the calculation core of RISKCURVES contains consequence models from EFFECTS, which
allows the possibility of linking models. By transferring the output of a previous model to the
input of a subsequent model it is possible to reduce manual data transfer and to assess the
physical effects of complete release scenarios.

Note that the models can also be selected in the scenario selection panel on the left of the
screen:

Typical predefined chains of models "Combined models" have been defined, allowing to use a
chain of models that perform calculations of all possible phenomena's that can occur for a
specific chemical and LOC scenario.

For every consequence model, a Yellow Book reference is given for the complete description
of the model. Within this manual the features of the models are described shortly. In a
separate last section the input and output model parameters are explained.

The detailed description of the various models, including incorporated formula's and relations,
can be found in specific chapters of the Yellow Book:

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Chapter 2: Outflow and Spray release, separated into Gas release, Liquefied gas releases
and liquid releases
Chapter 3: Pool evaporation
Chapter 4: Atmospheric (vapour cloud) dispersion
Chapter 5: Vapour cloud explosion
Chapter 6: Heat flux from fires

In the paragraphs below the various effect models for each group of models will be described,
including information about:

the reference for the description of the model;


the use and characteristics of the model;
explanation of input and output parameters;
an example calculation with the model, with explanation of the results;
description of the linking with other models.

The physical effects occurring upon a release of hazardous material are calculated with the
integrated TNO EFFECTS models, which are based on the models described in the Yellow
Book [3]. The EFFECTS modules have been incorporated in RISKCURVES.

5.2.1 Gas release


The release models calculate the release rate when loss of containment occurs in certain
situations. The situations refer to the physical state of the chemical and the characteristics of
the failure.

The (internal) EFFECTS consequence model will check whether a suitable release model is
selected based on physical state of the chemical and the release conditions like temperature,
pressure, location of the hole and the calculated height of the expanded liquid in a vessel. An
error message will appear if an incorrect model is selected, indicating the physical state of the
chemical under the specific release conditions.

Distinction is made between a gas release from a vessel or a (short) pipe connected to a
vessel, and a (non-stationary) release from a long pipeline, not (necessarily) connected to a
vessel.

The "gas release 10 minutes" model will search for a corresponding hole size for a 10
minutes scenario: Which size of the hole is required to get an representative rate which
equals the flow required for the scenario in which the full inventory is released in 10 minutes

5.2.1.1 Gas release from a vessel or pipe

Reference

The model is described in the Yellow Book [1997], sections 2.5.2.1 to 2.5.2.4.

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Characteristics and use

The model is suitable for the following situation: Hole in a vessel or in pipe connected to a
vessel containing (compressed) gas only. The hole in the pipe may either be a small leak or a
full bore rupture.

The initial release rate mainly depends on the leak size, the discharge coefficient, the initial
pressure inside the vessel and the length of the pipe (in case of a release from a pipe).

Because gas flows out of the vessel, and assuming no gas is being supplied, the pressure in
the vessel will drop and therefore the release rate decreases in time. The rate of decrease
mainly depends on the vessel volume. The expansion of the gas, because the pressure drops
from the pressure of the releasing gas to ambient, is taken into account. The model assumes
adiabatic outflow.

Releases from a hole in a pipe connected to a vessel are in principal not different from the
releases from a hole in the vessel itself, with the exception of the friction resistances of the
flow through the pipeline. For this resistance the Fanning friction factor is used, which
depends on the length, the diameter and the internal roughness of the pipe.

5.2.1.2 Gas release from a long pipeline

Reference

The model is described in the Yellow Book [1997], section 2.5.2.5. and is also called the
"Wilson model"

Characteristics and use

The model is suitable for the following situation: Total rupture of a long gas pipeline, not
(necessarily) connected to a vessel. Distinction is made between outflow from a full-bore
rupture and through a small hole in the pipeline.

The initial release rate mainly depends on the pipe diameter (= leak size) or hole size, the
friction of the flow inside the pipeline depending on the wall roughness and the initial pressure
inside the pipeline. Because of the release the pressure inside the pipeline will drop in the
region of the leak at first. The pressure drop travels along the length of the pipeline, with a
velocity equal to the sound velocity. This causes the gas release to become non-stationary
until the pressure drop reaches the end of the pipeline. This is the point at which the model
stops the calculation. The ongoing release can be assumed to be stationary and continuous
until the pipeline is empty.

Note that model assumes a single sided outflow at the end of a pipe with the provided
length. The model is often linked to the "Turbulent Free Jet" model, which needs consistent
input with respect to flowrate, pressure and corresponding diameter.

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Although the model includes an output value "model valid until time" the determining outflow
rate ("representative rate") is usually occurring within this time.

The representative duration is calculated as the time needed to empty the pipe at this rate,
and this duration is allowed to be larger than "model valid until time": this is the estimated
duration of the outflow, WHEN IT SHOULD EMPTY AT THE REPRESENTATIVE RATE. In
reality the outflow duration will be much longer, because is starts at a high rate, but this rate
rapidly decreases to very low values.

5.2.2 Liquefied gas release


For a liquefied gas release the following differentiation in type of release is made:

A distinction is made between a vapour, champagne or a pressurized liquefied gas release


from a vessel or a (short) pipe connected to a vessel.

For a pressurized liquefied gas the following differentiation in type of release is made,
depending on the location of the hole related to the liquid level in the vessel.

DIERS (Top venting)


The hole is above liquid level in the vapour phase, but below the expanded boiling liquid level.
Because of the release of vapour the liquid starts to boil and the expanded boiling liquid may
reach the location of the hole. In that case liquid drops will be carried along with the releasing
vapour.

Simple vapour release


Hole above liquid level in the vapour phase and also above the expanded boiling liquid level. In
that case only vapour will release.

Liquefied gas from long pipeline (Morrow)


This model is dedicated to calculate the two phase release from a long pipeline. In the
combined models (universal release or LOC models), this model is used whenever the
pipeline length exceeds 1 km. Note that the release is based on the contents of the (blocked)
pipeline itelf.

Instantaneous flashing release


This model calculates the division into an airborne mass and a rainout mass. It calculates the
adiabatic flash (the amount of liquid that can evaporate when cooling to to atmospheric boiling
temperature) and uses an empirical correction on this for liquid fraction in the cloud.

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Spray release

This model calculates the rainout and droplet (aerosol) formation of a two phase continues
release.

Pressurized Liquefied gas release (TPDIS, bottom venting)


The hole is below liquid level in the liquid phase.

Because of the pressure drop inside the pipeline connected to the vessel vapour will be
formed inside the pipeline. The resulting release will be a two-phase release; both liquid and
vapour releasing. In the case that the pipeline is very short (hole in vessel) only liquid will
release.

For pressurized liquefied gases the models to calculate the flash evaporation and the
evaporation due to the mixing with air immediate after the release (e.g. spray release) are part
of the release rate models.

5.2.2.1 DIERS top venting (vessel only)

Reference

The model is described in the Yellow Book [1997], Paragraph 2.5.3.2

Characteristics and use

The model is suitable for the following situation: Vessel containing a pressurized liquefied gas
with a hole in the vessel above liquid level in the vapour phase, but below the expanded boiling
liquid level. In the vessel a vapour-liquid equilibrium holds, with a pressure equal to the vapour
pressure at given temperature.

Because of the release of vapour the liquid starts to boil and the expanded boiling liquid may
reach the location of the hole. In that case liquid drops will be carried along with the releasing
vapour. The release rate is considerably increased by this champagne effect. The expanded
boiling level is determined by the hole size, release conditions (pressure) and the properties
of the chemical.

5.2.2.2 Vapour release from vessel or pipe

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Reference

The model is described in the Yellow Book [1997], section 2.5.3.

Characteristics and use

The model is suitable for the following situation: Vessel containing a pressurized liquefied gas
with a hole in the vessel or in a pipe connected to a vessel above liquid level in the vapour
phase and also above the expanded boiling liquid level. In the vessel a vapour-liquid
equilibrium holds, with a pressure equal to the saturated vapour pressure at a given
temperature. The model is based on the phenomenon of adiabatic vapour release.

The initial release rate mainly depends on the leak size, the discharge coefficient and the
initial pressure inside the vessel. Because vapour releases, the pressure in the vessel will
drop, causing the liquid to start to boil off. Because of the boiling the temperature of the liquid
in the vessel will decrease and so the vapour pressure decreases. Therefore the vapour
release rate decreases in time.

Releases from a hole in a pipeline connected to a vessel are in principal not different from the
releases from a hole in the vessel itself, with the exception of the friction of the flow through
the pipeline. This friction depends on the length, the diameter and the internal roughness of
the pipe.

In an equilibrium situation the remaining liquid cools down to its boiling point at atmospheric
pressure. The expansion of the vapour, because the pressure drops from the pressure of the
releasing vapour to ambient, is taken into account.

5.2.2.3 Pressurized liquefied gas release from vessel or pipe

Reference

The model used is the 2-phase flow model TPDIS developed by the Finnish Meteorological
Institute [Kukkonen]. The model is described in the Yellow Book [1997], section 2.5.3.5.

Characteristics and use

The model is suitable for the following situation: Vessel containing a pressurized liquefied gas
with a hole in the vessel or a hole in a pipe connected to a vessel below liquid level in the
liquid phase. In the vessel a vapour-liquid equilibrium holds, with a pressure equal to the
vapour pressure at given temperature.

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This 2-phase flow model assumes that for a length of the pipeline connected to the vessel
smaller than 0.1 m (and also for a hole in vessel) only liquid release results; no vapour is
formed before the release.

The initial liquid release mainly depends on the leak size and the pressure in the vessel.
Because of the liquid release the liquid level decreases, by which the vapour phase
increases. Therefore more vapour will be formed by boiling of the liquid, by which the
temperature and hence pressure in the vessel decreases. Because of this phenomena and of
the decreasing of the liquid height in the vessel the liquid release rate will decrease somewhat
in time.

In case of a leak in a pipeline containing a pressurized liquefied gas a pressure drop inside
the pipeline may occur. This occurs mainly for a large leak (about equal to the pipe diameter)
and for a pipe length larger than about 0.1 m. As a result of the pressure drop inside the
pipeline, vapour will already be formed inside the pipeline and the resulting release is 2-phase,
both liquid and vapour. The TPDIS model will check for itself whether the release will be 2-
phase or only liquid.

The basic model assumptions of TPDIS [Kukkonen] are the following.


In the model the flow has been divided into three flow regimes: (I) superheated liquid, (II)
expanding two-phase fluid and (III) equilibrium two-phase fluid. Homogeneous equilibrium flow
has been assumed in the third flow regime. The homogeneity assumption implies that the
fluid is a homogeneous mixture of vapour and liquid, and that the phases move with the same
velocity. For long pipes, the length of the regime (III) may be nearly equal to the pipe length.
The process is assumed to be adiabatic. This is a reasonable assumption, as the outflow is
very rapid, and the heat energy conducted through the pipe walls is therefore much less than
the energy of the phase transitions.

5.2.2.4 Spray release of pressurized liquefied gas from vessel or pipe

Reference

The model is described in the Yellow Book [1997], section 2.5.3.7.

Characteristics and use

The model is suitable for the following situation: evaporation of a release of pressurized
liquefied gas from a vessel or a pipe with a boiling point below ambient temperature;
(pressurized) liquefied gas release or champagne release.

The evaporation of a released pressurized liquefied gas will be determined by the following
phenomena:

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Flash-off. A flash-off means that as a result of the reduction of the pressure to


atmospheric pressure the liquid will spontaneously start to boil. The necessary heat of
evaporation for this is drawn from the liquid which will cool down to its boiling temperature at
atmospheric pressure as a result.

Rain out and air entrainment. The release and the flash-off will generally be so violent
that the liquid in the jet will be broken into drops and the jet will mix with air. The liquid drops
will fall onto the ground (rain out). Due to the air entrainment, part of the liquid drops will
evaporate during falling. Because of the withdrawal of the heat necessary for this evaporation
the temperature of the air-vapour mixture will decrease to below the boiling temperature of the
chemical. The spray release model calculates the amount of the liquid that will rain out, which
forms a pool on the subsurface.

Linking of model data

The following parameters will be linked to other models.

Link to neutral gas dispersion - (semi-)continuous release:

net air-borne mass flow rate

source dimensions

Link to heavy gas dispersion model - horizontal/vertical jet:

net air-borne mass flow rate

source dimensions

temperature after rain out (boiling point)

vapour mass fraction after rain out

Link to pool evaporation, boiling pool:

total mass liquid rained out

REMARK: The pool evaporation model is suitable for instantaneous releases, therefore
this model has to be used with care in the link with the spray release model. A solution will be
the following:
From experiments it is known that in most cases all the liquid drops in a spray release will be
evaporated by the mixing with air. This means no rain out of liquid. This total evaporation of
the spray can be calculated by adjusting the source exit height to higher values. The ongoing
dispersion of this total evaporated spray release can be directly calculated with the suitable
dispersion model (see above). Within the dispersion model the height of the source has to be
adjusted to the actual value.

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5.2.2.5 Instantaneous flashing liquid release

Reference

The model based on AMINAL- Belgium, "Nieuwe richtlijn voor het berekenen van flash en
spray" doc.97/001, which is original source of table 4.8 of Purple Book CPR 18E.

Characteristics and use

The model is suitable for the following situation: evaporation of an instantaneous release of
pressurized liquefied gas. Instantaneous release means that the entire contents of the vessel
or system are released in a very short time.

The evaporation of an instantaneous released amount of pressurized liquefied gas will be


determined by the flash-off and by the evaporation due to mixing with air. Based on
experiments the total airborn mass equals may be about 2 times the flashed amount, but
depends on the adiabatic flash fraction
The consequence of this evaporation is that an instantaneous gas cloud will occur. The
remaining liquid, which is cooled to its boiling point will form a pool on the ground. For this a
suitable pool evaporation model have to be used.

Because the model uses the AMINAL approximation to calculate the total mass in the cloud,
this total "airborne mass" (mass remaining in air: not rained out) is partly vapour (the
adiabatic flash amount) and partly liquid droplets.

When using a dispersion model based on the calculated total mass, and there is liquid in the
cloud, it is suggested to use a "Dense dispersion model".

Linking of model data

The following parameters will be linked to other models.

Link to neutral gas dispersion - instantaneous release:

mass of vapour evolved

Link to heavy gas dispersion - instantaneous gas release:

mass of vapour evolved

temperature vapour/liquid (at boiling point)

Link to pool evaporation - boiling liquid:

mass of liquid in pool

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REMARK: The total mass evaporated calculated with the model for pool evaporation
from land of a boiling liquid is considered as an instantaneous source and can be added to
the mass of vapour evolved due to the flashing liquid instantaneous release. This total
evaporated amount (flash, mixing with air, boiling pool) can be linked to the total mass
released in the dispersion model (neutral and heavy gas) for an instantaneous source.

The calculated footprint of the local cloud fire is based on the shape of a half sphere, where
the material is mixed to Upper Explosion Limit. For non flammable materials, expansion of the
full airborne amount (including liquid droplets) to atmospheric vapour is considered.

Note that this half sphere (mixed with air and/or expanded to pure vapour) is not the typical
situation that should be used as input for dispersion. For that reason, the calculated density of
the airborn mass gives an impression on whether to use dense gas dispersion or neutral gas
dispersion (for 2 phase mixtures usually much heavier than air: densegas)

5.2.2.6 Liquefied gas from long pipeline

The Morrow model (non stationary outflow from long pipeline) can be used to calculate the
behaviour of expanding pressurized liquid in a pipeline after a rupture. Blocking of the pipeline
is assumed, and the release is based on the contents of the pipeline itself.
The model is valid until the distance to the interface (traveling pressure wave) is larger then
the length of the pipeline. The time that is need for these model calculations is shown in the
output box Model valid until time. After this the calculations continues with the predicted
mass flow rate of the last time step until all mass is removed.

Note that as of version 8.1, the model assumes a One sided outflow at the end of a pipe
with the provided length, just like the similar Wilson model for gas pipelines. This is changed
because the model is often linked to "spray release" which needs a consistent input with
respect to flowrate, pressure and diameter. If a two sided outflow is to be evaluated, two
separate pipelines need to be modeled.

Although the model includes an output value "model valid until time" the determining outflow
rate ("representative rate") is usually occurring within this time.

The (extrapolated) outflow duration is also calculated, but this is only an estimation because it
is larger than "model valid until time".

It is not advised to use values from the graphs at time t higher than "model valid until time".

5.2.3 Liquid release

Reference

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The model is described in the Yellow Book [1997], section 2.5.4.

Characteristics and use

The model is suitable for the following situation: Vessel containing a liquid with a hole in the
vessel or a hole in a pipe connected to a vessel below liquid level in the liquid phase. For this
model a liquid may be:

a non-boiling liquid (boiling point above ambient)

a gas cooled to liquid at or below its boiling point

a pressurized liquefied gas at a pressure higher than the vapour pressure at the
storage temperature.

For this model it is assumed that the pressure above the liquid level inside the vessel remains
constant.

The release rate is calculated using the Bernoulli equation. The release rate mainly depends
on the leak size and by the pressure above the liquid plus the hydrostatic pressure of the
column of liquid (from height of leak to filling height). Because of the release of liquid the
hydrostatic pressure of the liquid column will decrease and so the release rate decreases in
time. In total the amount of liquid between the height of the leak and the initial filling height will
be released.
Most times the releasing liquid will form a pool on the ground from which evaporation takes
place. For this a suitable pool evaporation model must be used.

Releases from a hole in a pipeline connected to a vessel are in principal not different from the
releases from a hole in the vessel itself, with the exception of the friction of the flow through
the pipeline. This friction depends on the length, the diameter and the internal roughness of
the pipe.
Keep in mind that this model is valid for a pipeline connected to a vessel without a pump
installed in this system. In the event that a pump is present upstream of the leak the release
rate will be maximized by the maximum rate of the pump. Furthermore in this case it has to
be identified whether the pump will still be running or will trip.

Linking of model data

The following parameters will be linked to other models.

Link to pool evaporation model for non-boiling liquids:

total mass released over total release duration

Link to pool evaporation model for boiling liquids, relevant for releases of gases cooled to
liquid at boiling point:

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total mass released over total release duration

5.2.4 Pool evaporation


The pool evaporation models calculate the amount of vapour evaporated from a liquid pool,
which is formed on the surface after the release of liquid material.

The evaporation model can either work with instantaneous and continuous supply of liquid,
and will determine itself wether it is boiling or non-boiling liquid.

Furthermore the type underground (land or water) and spreading conditions (bunds) will have
to be provided by the user.

Spreading pool or Spreading in bunds

Each choice has its own specific behaviour with respect to pool area, thickness of the layer
and thus evaporation behaviour

Evaporation from land or water

Differentiation is made between non-boiling liquids and boiling liquids by the program itself,
based on temperature of the release, and the characteristics of the chemical. The model
determines the conditions by itself.

Non-boiling liquid

A non-boiling liquid is a liquid with a temperature below its boiling point. Normally the boiling
temperature of the chemical will be above the ambient temperature.
For a non-boiling liquid with a boiling temperature below the ambient temperature (=
temperature subsoil) the liquid will rise in temperature because of the heat drawn from the
subsoil by which the liquid will become a boiling liquid: Then the non-boiling evaporation model
is not suitable.

Boiling liquid

In the EFFECTS model it is assumed that for the evaporation of a boiling liquid the
temperature of the liquid is equal to its boiling point, which is below the ambient temperature.
This will be the case for:

a gas cooled to liquid (refrigerated liquid)

a gas compressed to liquid: After the immediate evaporation (flash-off and by


entrainment of air) the possibly remaining liquid, which is cooled to its boiling point at

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ambient pressure will form a liquid pool on the surface. Then the same situation has
occurred as for a refrigerated liquid.

Subsoil Type

Determines the heat transfer behaviour, see Subsoil type

Subsoil Roughness

The roughness description relates to the minimum pool thickness that can occur, see Subsoil
roughness.

Results:representative values

All "Purple book representative values" are being calculated on the base of the selected
representative step

Representative density

The density of the vapour that is released from the pool is calculated on the base of mixed
with air from a 0.5 mtr top layer

Source chemical: Surface area * source rate/m2 = source rate M evaporation [kg/s] at
atmospheric pressure and representative temperature

Input air: Wind speed [m/s] * width pool [m] * 0.5 m height * 1.2 kg/s = amount of air mixed M
air in in kg/s

The combination of these two rates and density gives the density of the mixture.

Reference

"An advanced model for spreading and evaporation of accidentally released hazardous liquids

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on land"
by I.J.M. Trijssenaar-Buhre, R.P. Sterkenburg & S.I. Wijnant-Timmerman
TNO, Utrecht, The Netherlands
5.2.5 Atmospheric dispersion
The gas or vapour released will be dispersed in the surrounding area under the influence of
the atmospheric turbulence. The concentrations of the gas or vapour released in the
surrounding area can be calculated by means of the atmospheric dispersion models. These
concentrations are important for determining whether, for example, an explosive gas cloud
can form or whether injuries will occur in the case of toxic gases. Within the EFFECTS
models a first differentiation is made between the following three types of dispersion models:

In the dispersion models account is taken of the atmospheric stability, the so-called Pasquill
classes (A to F) and a certain wind velocity. The source dimensions are taken into account by
means of an imaginary (virtual) point source wind upwards, for which the dispersed
dimensions at the point of the actual source are equal to the actual source dimensions. The
dispersion models apply only to open terrain. However allowance is made for the roughness
of the terrain. The influence of trees, houses, etc. on the dispersion can be determined by
means of a class of the roughness length.

Neutral gas dispersion

The neutral gas dispersion model is based on the Gaussian plume model and no account is
taken of the difference in density between the ambient air and the gas. Because of this, the
model must only be used for gases with a density approximately the same as air, or if the gas
concentration at the point of release is low.

The direction of the release is always taken as horizontal to the wind direction.

Both Neutral and Dense gas dispersion models are available for the following type of
releases: Concentration, Explosive mass and Toxic dose.

For the neutral gas and heavy gas dispersion models the following type of calculations can be
carried out:

Concentration contour
The model calculates:

the dimensions of the contour (length and max. width) at given height
the maximum concentration and corresponding distance at time t: only for neutral gas
dispersion, instantaneous release and semi-continuous release when cloud has
drifted away from its release point.
graphical presentation of the contour in X-Y directions
graphical presentation of concentration with distance.

For semi-continuous and instantaneous releases the concentration contour is calculated for
one specified time t.

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Explosive mass
The model calculates:

the explosive mass, for concentrations higher than LEL or between LEL and UEL
the dimensions of the LEL contour
the dimensions of the UEL contour (not for heavy gas dispersion)
whether the source is at ground level or the plume touches the ground level or it is a
free plume.
For semi-continuous and instantaneous releases the explosive mass is calculated for one
specified time t.
For neutral gas dispersion the explosive mass and the dimensions of the LEL and UEL
contour are calculated for a height equal to the source height.
For heavy gas dispersion these parameters are calculated for a height equal to zero (ground
level).

Toxic load
The model calculates:

the toxic load, Cn.t, with C = concentration in mg/m 3 and t = duration in min at position (x,
y, z) for neutral gas dispersion
at position (x, 0, 0) for heavy gas dispersion for a certain exponent n and for a given
maximum exposure time after arrival cloud
the maximum concentration at position (x, y, z), and for semi-continuous and
instantaneous releases the corresponding time at position (x, y, z)
the arrival time and departure time of the cloud at position (x, y, z) (not for continuous
releases)
For these parameters a concentration equal to 1% of the maximum concentration is
assumed.

Continuous, Semi-continuous or Instantaneous

Within the model itself, the user has to choose for continuous, Semi-continuous or
Instantaneous.

For rather long releases the continuous release dispersion model has to be used and for very
short releases the instantaneous release dispersion model. In general the following is used to
judge whether the source can be considered as continuous or instantaneous [Yellow Book]:

Continuous: at distances < 1.8 * wind velocity * duration of release

Instantaneous: at distances > 18 * wind velocity * duration of release

Semi-continuous: intermediate cases.

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The dispersion calculations for the semi-continuous releases could be rather time
consuming.

Dense gas dispersion

If the gas has a higher density than air (because of a high molecular weight or of a low
temperature) it will tend to spread in a radial direction because of gravity, resulting in a gas
pool. As a result of this, in contrast to a neutral gas, the gas released may spread against the
direction of the wind.

In combined models, the selection criteria for using dense gas is: Dense gas is situation
where density of mixture (possibly including liquid droplets with very high density is 10%
heavier than air.

Heavy gas dispersion models are available for the following type of releases:

Instantaneous gas release: instantaneous release of gas, vapour or flashing liquid.

Pool evaporation: vapour source is formed by evaporation from a pool

Jet, horizontal or vertical: (semi-)continuous release of gas, vapour or spray release in


vertical or horizontal direction

Turbulent free jet

When a gas or vapour releases and the Reynolds number under the release conditions is
greater than about 2.5.104 (e.g. high release velocity) a jet occurs. Another condition is the
absence of obstacles in the jet. Turbulent free jet dispersion occurs when the gas velocity at
the release equals or is close to the velocity of sound.

5.3 Combined models


New in version 9 is the possibility of using combined (or automated) models. Basically they
consist of a pre-described chain of models, linked together into one combined model.

Because a lot of the input parameters of a model can be taken from output of the preceding
model, the required input of the combined model is not the same as "all inputs of all models
together". Although they are referred as being a model-chain, it is better to think of a combined
model as being a tree, because it may consist of several branches.

The figure below illustrates that outflow model 1 can be followed by a spray release model
2 and a pool evaporation model 3. Note that models can share equal inputs, such as the
selected chemical, the wind speed and and the ambient temperature, and some inputs are
taken from a preceding model, like a rain out mass or liquid (droplet) fraction of airborne
mass. Furthermore, depending of the conditions of the cumulated source, the appropriate
dispersion model has to be run.

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In the occasion of a two phase release, the source rates from for instance airborne mass
rate from spray release and evaporation rate from pool-evaporation, are to be cumulated, to
create the combined source input for the dispersion model.

The cumulation procedure as used in the models is described in detail in cumulation of


sources.

Note that the combined model often incorporates 4 types of dispersion models which will be
abbreviated in the model log:

HGDE: Heavy Gas Dispersion Explosive mass model, (Inst represents Instantaneous mode,
Pool represents Pool evaporation mode)

HGDT: Heavy Gas Dispersion Toxic model

NGDE: Neutral Gas Dispersion Explosive mass model

NGDT: Neutral Gas Dispersion Toxic model

Furthermore, depending on the properties of the chemical material incorporated (and the
selection of phenomena to evaluate), the model chain will decide which mode (toxic of
flammable) or typical model type (heavy gas dispersion or neutral gas dispersion) to activate.
Usually, the branching starts with selection of the typical phase of the chemical (gas, liquefied
gas or liquid).

Apart from material phase, the type of scenario (instantaneous or semi continuous) will also
play an important role in selection of the release model.Typical LOC (Loss Of Containment)
scenarios will consist of an outflow (release) model (possibly followed by spray release or
turbulent free jet), followed by a possible pool evaporation model (if there is a rain-out mass)
and finally a dispersion model where the density of the gas determines whether to use the
heavy gas or the neutral gas model.

In order to be able to determine the correct chain, preconditions have been defined for all
branches of the model tree. For example: pool evaporation and pool fire models will require
the existence of a pool (pure liquid phase) or rain out mass from the two phase release.

The type of decisions that have been made along the route of calculating, are being presented
in the model log. All models that have been run will be listed here.

Models that were skipped from calculation will provide a reason why: "neutral gas dispersion
did not run because precondition not fulfilled: not a neutral gas" or "material is not toxic"

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Apart from the chain of events as illustrated above, some specific phenomena can also be
incorporated within combined models: depending on the type of ignition: a BLEVE, Pool fire or
Jet fire can happen. The occurrence of these phenomena also depends on the input
parameters: type of release (instantaneous, continuous) and state of the chemical.

The combined models will automatically incorporate all possible phenomena


according to the schedule below.

5.4 Cumulation of sources


In the occasion of a release from a two phase chemical the amount of mass that is thrown
into the air and is to be used as the dispersion source rate can be determined by two
processes:

Material that remains in air after the release (flash or spray)


Material that rains-out, but eventually will evaporate from a pool

The way the two sources are combined depends on the kind of release that is occurring.

Instantaneous (G1) scenario


In case of an instantaneous G1 scenario, the dispersion models will have to run in
"instantaneous mode", whereas the source rate from the pool is an continuous source. For
that reason, two dispersion models will need to run. Note that it can occur that the
instantaneous flash will be a heavy gas (due to the liquid fraction and temperature), whereas
the pool evaporation source may be "neutral". Note the density of the evaporated mass is
based on mixing with air of a 0.5 meter window height.

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After calculation of (toxic or explosive) result, the dispersion results itself are cumulated.

For this cumulation of an instantaneous (G1) dispersion result, distinction has been made
between cumulation of dispersion-explosive models and cumulation of dispersion-toxics
models.

In normal mode, the presented contours and lethality grids will only present the corrected
dominating source, if the "expert mode"has been chosen, the secondary dispersion results
are also visualized.

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Continuous release
In case of the continuous release, the source rate is determined by:

1. The 2 phase Bottom Discharge (TPDIS) model, followed by spray release, which
calculates rainout mass flowrate and a airborn flowrate
2. The pool evaporation, fed by the rain out massrate will also create a continuous
sourcerate.

The dispersion model has to be fed with important cumulated parameters: combined mass
flowrate, representative release duration, and liquid fraction of the mixture.

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Not that if the input chemical is a pure liquid, the dispersion model will run in "poolevaporation
mode" and input will be purely the pool evaporation mass rate (release height 0).

If the chemical is a gas, the cumulation routine will skip the pool-input, and the following
dispersion model will run in "horizontal jet" mode, with dimensions taken from the jet
diameter.

5.5 Model input parameters

Each model inside EFFECTS uses it's own set of required input fields.

To obtain additional information about a specific input box, simply press <F1> while the
cursor in the input box, and specific information about the field will pop up.

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5.5.1 Absorption speed

Absorption speed
This is the average speed with which the particles are absorbed by the absorption surface
considered for the materials present in the room.

5.5.2 Absorption surface

Absorption surface
This is the surface of the materials present in the room which can be considered to absorb
chemical particles with a certain absorption speed.

5.5.3 Adiabatic vapour flash fraction


Adiabatic vapour flash fraction

The Adiabatic vapour flash fraction present the amount of mass which can evaporate when
cooling down to boiling temperature at atmospheric conditions.

5.5.4 Air relative humidity

Air relative humidity


The relative humidity of the atmosphere due to the partial vapor pressure of water in the
atmosphere.

The relative humidity influences the atmospheric transmissivity. For the Dutch situation the
normal variation is between 50 - 90%.

5.5.5 Always use fast dispersion model


Always use fast dispersion model

Obsolete value, presented for compatibility issues.

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5.5.6 Ambient pressure

Ambient pressure
This is the ambient pressure at the vicinity of the release.

5.5.7 Ambient relative humidity

Ambient relative humidity


This is the air humidity in the vicinity of the release.

5.5.8 Ambient temperature

Ambient Temperature
The average yearly temperature or the temperature you want to use for all calculations. In
general, the higher the temperature the larger the effects and consequences. Mostly a value
between 9 and 25 degrees Celsius is used.

5.5.9 Amount of CO2 in atmosphere

Amount of CO2 in atmosphere


This is the amount of carbon dioxide in the air. The default value is 0.03 %

5.5.10 Angle between hole and flame axis (?)

Angle between hole and flame axis (?)


As indicated in the figure, a is the angle between the hole axis and the central axis of the
flame.

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5.5.11 at distance

....at distance
Fields that have "" at the beginning, always refer to a field directly above this one.
This is the distance between the release point and the (last) down-wind location where the
maximum concentration is found, in the direction defined by (Yd, Zd).

5.5.12 at distance to the source

. . . at distance to the source


This is the down-wind distance from the source point (the stack) to the point at which the
maximum height of the plume is reached.

5.5.13 at time t

...at time t
This is the time at which the contour of the flammable cloud is displayed.
Because the user can choose to display results at various specified time steps, the actual
time is listed as well:
tmac represents the Time for the Maximum Area of Cloud.
tmem is the time for Maximum Explosive Mass
tuser at any user specified time

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5.5.14 Atmospheric pressure

Atmospheric pressure
The outside pressure is used in various dispersion and outflow calculations.

5.5.15 Atmospheric transmissivity

Atmospheric transmissivity
The atmospheric transmissivity (ta) is a measure for the absorbed heat which is emitted
by the fire and absorbed by the air in between the radiator and the observer. Without
absorption factors, ta equals to 1. The absorption factors (aw and ac) depend upon the
properties of the main absorbing components (H2O and CO2) in the air. Therefore the
atmospheric transmissivity is defined as:

The absorption factors aw and ac are estimated by using the graphs from Hottel, which
can also be found in the YB 3rd Edition 1997 on page 6.47.

5.5.16 Average mass flow rate

Average mass flow rate


This is the mass flow rate averaged over the time specified in the field "...Based upon
time".

5.5.17 Average release rate (1st 20% )

Average release rate (1st 20%)


This is the release rate averaged during the first (out of five) period of the release in which
20% of the total released mass is released.

As an example, if for a given scenario the overall released mass from the beginning of the
release until the vessel gets empty is 10,000 kg, and the first 2,000 kg (20% of the total
released mass) are released in 100 s, the average release rate (1st 20%) will be 20 kg/s.

This value is recommended to be used as averaged mass flow rate when linking outflow
models to pool evaporation or dispersion models in which we are interested in the
flammability of the chemical (explosive calculations).

5.5.18 Average release rate (2nd 20% )


Average release rate (2nd 20%)

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This is the release rate averaged during the second (out of five) period of the release in which
20% of the total released mass is released.

As an example, if for a given scenario the overall released mass from the beginning of the
release until the vessel gets empty is 10,000 kg, and the second 2,000 kg (20% of the total
released mass) are released in 200 s, the average release rate (2nd 20%) will be 10 kg/s.

This value is recommended to be used as averaged mass flow rate when linking outflow
models to pool evaporation or dispersion models in which we are interested in the toxicity of
the chemical (toxic calculations).

5.5.19 Axial distance from release (Sd)

Axial distance from release (Sd)


This is the distance from the release point (the jets release point can differ from the
position where the release is done, because of the distance required for the flow to expand
from high to ambient pressure) to the point of study, along the jets axis or center-line.

The different points and distances are shown in the figure below, to make the
understanding easier.

5.5.20 Based upon time

. . based upon time


This is the time over which the mass flow rate is averaged.

This time is usually the time of study t ("Time t after start release"), but if the vessel is
emptied previously, the time used to do the average is the time required for the emptying of
the vessel.

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5.5.21 Blast wave shape at Xd

Blast-wave shape at Xd
This is the shape of the blast wave obtained at the point of study Xd for a given vapour
cloud explosion scenario.
Three different shapes are possible, as defined in the method:
- Pressure wave: rapidly propagating wave in atmosphere causing a gradual
change in gas-dynamic state: high-density, pressure and particle velocity
- Shock wave: rapidly propagating wave in atmosphere causing an
instantaneous change in gas-dynamic state: high-density, pressure and particle
velocity
- Intermediate wave: intermediate wave between the pressure and the shock
wave

5.5.22 BLEVE calculation type

BLEVE calculation type

The BLEVE model support the usage of two different BLEVE calculation models. By default,
the "Dynamic model" is used.

(based on "Dynamic BLEVE: W.E. Martinsen and J.D. Marx, An improved model for the
prediction of radiant heat from fireballs,in: proceedings of the international conference and
workshop on modelling the consequences of accidental releases of hazardous materials,
sept. 28 - oct. 1 1999, San Francisco, California p.p. 605-621.).

The other "Static model" method is based on the Yellow Book (CPR-14E), 3rd edition 1997,
Paragraph 6.5.7.

Both models provide similar results, but the Dynamic BLEVE provides a more realistic time
dependent modelling of the phenomenon: it describes a growing and rising fireball.

Note that the static BLEVE also requires to enter a CO2 concentration to calculate
atmospheric transmissivity, and it reports a flame temperature. The height of the fireball is
always expressed as the height to the center of the sphere.

Due to the growing and rising effect, the dynamic BLEVE model provide higher max. radiation
levels at short distances, whereas on longer distances, the static BLEVE has higher doses.
When using 35 kW/m2 as a 100% lethality threshold, the Dynamic BLEVE result in a much
bigger 100% lethality radius, whereas the lower percentages of damage will not reach as far
as in case of the static model.

5.5.23 Burst pressure vessel

Burst pressure vessel


This is the absolute pressure inside the vessel at the moment of rupture.

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5.5.24 Calculate contours for


Calculate contours for Effects or Consequences

The user can specify if output should contain levels for specific values (EFFECTS) or also
consequence lethality levels.

5.5.25 Calculate toxic contour by

Calculate toxic contour by


If the chemical has a valid probit function stored in the database, then a toxic contour can
be calculated. In this input box, you can indicate whether the contour will be representing a
toxic dose, or a fraction of mortality.

5.5.26 Case description

Case description
In this field, you can enter a description of the cases that you are calculating. It defaults to
"Session X" where X is a number between 1 and 5 or 16 (dependent upon the operating
system).
The case description will be shown in all graph legends as well as in all text output.

5.5.27 Cause of vessel failure

Cause of vessel failure


Combo Box where the eight different possible causes that can lead to the failure of a
vessel are shown. Those are:
- Pressure vessel burst with ideal gas: in case of accidental rupture (reduction of
vessels strength, domino effect) of a pressurized vessel containing only a gas
which can be considered ideal.
- Pressure vessel burst with non-ideal gas/vapour: in case of accidental rupture
(reduction of vessels strength, domino effect) of a pressurized vessel containing
only a gas which cannot be considered ideal.
- Pressure liquefied gas, BLEVE: in case of accidental rupture of a pressurised
vessel containing liquefied gas, so to take into account the work supplied by the
expansion of the liquid. Expansion work data is only available for ammonia, carbon
dioxide, nitrogen, oxygen, ethane, propane and iso-butane. For this chemicals, no
liberated energy has to be input, but for other liquefied chemicals, the liberated energy
has to be estimated through enthalpy diagrams or tables and then input.
- Decomposition of materials: in case of rupture due to the decomposition of
materials stored in the vessel.
- Runaway reaction, ideal gases: in case of rupture due to a runaway reaction in
which the gas phase can be considered to be ideal.
- Runaway reaction, non-ideal gases/vapours: in case of rupture due to a runaway

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reaction in which the gas phase cannot be considered to be ideal.


- Internal explosion: in case of rupture due to an internal explosion of the vessel,
which increases the pressure inside the vessel until rupture.

The "pressure vessel burst with ideal gas" and "internal explosion" causes of rupture can
apparently seen to be the same, because the program requires the same inputs.
The overpressure calculation is the same for both cases, according to Bakers model, but
the calculation of the initial speed is done with different models, due to the presence of
higher impulses in case of an internal explosion.

5.5.28 Chemical name

Chemical name
This is the name of the chemical that you want to perform your calculation with. A chemical
can be toxic or flammable or both. Some chemicals (like water) are neither toxic nor
flammable. These are present in the database for reference purposes and for calculations
where water is involved (like evaporation of a chemical on water).

The small browse button behind

NOTE:
When a chemical does not have any toxic properties listed in the database, this does NOT
mean that it is not toxic. It only means that there is no probit (toxicity) function available.
Many chemicals are toxic, however only a very limited number have specific probit
functions available from literature that describe the mortal toxicity to humans. Probit
functions for most common chemicals are already added in the standard database.

5.5.29 Cloud cover


Cloud cover
The cloud cover used for the calculation of the actual solar heat radiation. This value directly
influences transmission of energy through the clouds. 100% cloud cover leaves 0% of the
original solar heat radiation flux.

5.5.30 Cloud passage time

Cloud passage time


This is the time at which we assume the toxic cloud arrives at the position where the room
is found.

5.5.31 Combustion rate

Combustion rate / Burning mass rate

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The total combustion rate is found by multiplying the surface area of the pool and the pool
burning mass flux. The burning mass flux can be provided in the database, or it will be
calculated if this value is not available.

As of version 10, the burning mass flux is provided as a separate field in the chemical
databases. For single components, many common substances already have an
experimental value provided in the database (expressed as kg/s.m2). If this value is not
available, the Burgess relation (Equation 6.67 on page 6.65 in the YB-2005 [Burgess,
1974].) will be used to estimate the burning mass flux.
Note that as soon as a burning mass flux value is (user) defined in the chemical
database, this value will overrule the use of the Burgess relation.
The typical values provided in the default database are based on Rew, P.J., Hulbert, W.G.
(1996), Development of a pool fire thermal radiation model, HSE Contract research report
no. 96. See table below.

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5.5.32 Concentrating averaging time flammables

Concentrating averaging time flammables


This value is used to calculate an time averaged concentration for flammable substances.
Default is 20.0 sec.

For a (semi-) continuous source this is the duration over which the concentration will be
averaged out, to deal with the effect of the meandering of the wind.

The minimum value for the averaging time is 18.75 s [Yellow Book], this compares to the
value for an instantaneous source, which is also used for the calculations of the contour for
the flammability limits and the explosive mass.

5.5.33 Concentrating averaging time toxics

Concentrating averaging time toxics


This value is used to calculate an time averaged concentration for toxic loads. Default is
600.0 sec.

For a (semi-) continuous source this is the duration over which the concentration will be
averaged out, to deal with the effect of the meandering of the wind.

The averaging time for toxic concentration is related to aspects of the receiver. For local
irritant chemicals the effects can occur within few seconds (few breathings) and for
systematically irritant chemicals within few minutes (few times pumping of blood through
body).

Therefore the standard value is chosen to be 60.

5.5.34 Concentration at (Sd, Yd)

Concentration at (Sd, Yd)


This is the concentration of the considered chemical calculated at the point of study Sd,Yd.

5.5.35 Concentration at (Xd, Yd, Zd, t)

Concentration at (Xd, Yd, Zd, t)


This is the concentration that is calculated for a given release at the point of study Xd, Yd,
Zd and time t (semi-continuous and instantaneous releases) or at any time (continuous
releases).

5.5.36 Concentration at maximum plume rise

Concentration at maximum plume rise


This is the concentration in the plume center-line at the down-wind position where the
maximum height of the plume is reached.

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5.5.37 Concentration at plume touch-down

Concentration at plume touch-down


This is the concentration in the plume center-line at the down-wind position where the
plume touch-down occurs.

This output is only calculated for negatively buoyant plumes.

5.5.38 Concentration at plume's centre-line at Xd

Concentration at plume's center-line at Xd


This is the concentration of released chemical at the plumes center-line at the down-wind
point of study Xd.

This output is not calculated, so not shown, when the distance from release (Xd) is higher
than the distance at which the maximum height of the plume is reached (for positively
buoyant plumes) or higher than the distance where the plumes touch-down occurs (for
negatively buoyant plumes).

5.5.39 Concentration averaging time

Concentration averaging time


This the duration over which the concentration will be averaged to take into account the
effect of the meandering of the wind.
As a rule of thumb, 600 seconds is used for toxic dispersion, and 20 s for flammable
substances.

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The minimum value for the averaging time is 20 s [Yellow Book paragraph 4.5.3.4:
minimum sigma correction is 0.5, which is obtained for a time of 20 sec.].
Usually this 20 sec is used for the calculations of the contour for the flammability limits and
the explosive mass.

The averaging time for toxic concentration is related to aspects of the receiver, but
generally taken as 600 seconds. For local irritant chemicals the effects can occur within
few seconds (few breathing's) and for systematically irritant chemicals within a few
minutes (pumping of blood through body).

This field is not required for instantaneous releases.

5.5.40 Concentration indoors at time t

Concentration indoors at time t


This is the concentration which is found inside the room at time t. We assume the
concentration is constant in the whole volume of the room.

5.5.41 Concentration reduction at t

Concentration reduction at t
This is the unitary fraction of reduced concentration (outdoors concentration minus indoors
concentration) on the basis of the outdoors concentration.

Where:

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CR: concentration reduction [-]


Co: concentration outdoors [kg/m 3]
Ci: concentration indoors [kg/m 3]

5.5.42 Confined mass in explosive range

Confined mass in explosive range


This is the total mass the program uses to make the calculations. It comes from
multiplying the "Total mass in explosive range" by the "Fraction of flammable cloud
confined".

5.5.43 Contour plot accuracy

Contour plot accuracy


In cases where you can not find a contour while you would expect it, or find contours with
strange shapes, are not closed or are "jagged", decreasing the value of the accuracy (e.g.
from 1% to 0.1% or even 0.001%) will often give better results. The accuracy is set to 1%
by default as an optimum between accuracy and calculation duration. The more accurate,
the better the results (and no contours will be "lost"), but the longer the program will
calculate longer.

The "Contour plot accuracy" value is the maximum relative error (in %) associated to the
value (Vcalculated) of the concentration, toxic dose or fraction of mortality (depending upon
the type of contour) in any of the points of the contour, related to the threshold value
(Vthreshold).

For turbulent free jet calculations, the accuracy is only related to the calculation of the point
in the jets axis at which the threshold concentration is reached; the rest of the points of the
contour have an accuracy of 100%, since the radial distance at which a concentration is
reached can be analytically calculated from the threshold concentration and the axial
distance itself, and no iterative procedure is used.

A lower value indicates a higher accuracy

5.5.44 Cross-sectional area of the tank

Cross-sectional area of the tank

The cross-sectional area of the storage tank

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5.5.45 Curve Number

Curve Number
Combo Box where the curve to be used to obtain the different results of the method is
selected.

The multi-energy method is based upon experimental graphs in which the required value
depends upon the distance from the vessel and the type of explosion. 10 different types of
explosion are considered, and have a curve associated to them. Those are:
- 1: Very weak deflagration
- 2: Very weak deflagration
- 3: Weak deflagration
- 4: Weak deflagration
- 5: Medium deflagration
- 6: Strong deflagration
- 7: Strong deflagration
- 8: Very strong deflagration
- 9: Very strong deflagration
- 10: Detonation

As a default, the value from the the System Parameters value "Curve number for ME" will
be used.

The table below gives some indications on which class (curve number) to use for typical
blast strength, ignition strength, obstruction and parallel plane categories.
(see also paragraph 5.5.2 of the Yellow book)

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5.5.46 CurveNumber for ME

CurveNumber for Multi energy explosion method


The multi energy method for explosions has an important parameter "CurveNumber".

Default this one is set to 10. Although this value is quiet unrealistic, in combination with 8%
confined, answers are in the same order of magnitude as the old TNT method.

The multi-energy method is based upon experimental graphs in which the required value
depends upon the distance from the vessel and the type of explosion. 10 different types of
explosion are considered, and have a curve associated to them. Those are:

1. Very weak deflagration


2. Very weak deflagration
3. Weak deflagration
4. Weak deflagration
5. Medium deflagration
6. Strong deflagration
7. Strong deflagration
8. Very strong deflagration
9. Very strong deflagration
10. Detonation

5.5.47 Damage (general description) at Xd

Damage (general description) at Xd


This is the general description of the damage suffered at the point of study.

4 different situations can be found:


- Total destruction (Zone A: > 83 kPa)

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- Heavy damage (Zone B: 35 - 83 kPa)


- Moderate damage (Zone C: 17 - 35 kPa)
- Minor damage (Zone D: 3.5 - 17 kPa)

The damage is dependent upon the overpressure obtained at Xd.

5.5.48 Damage to brick houses at Xd

Damage to brick houses at Xd


This is the damage suffered by a brick house if this one was situated at the point of study.
5 different situations can be found:
- More than 75% of all outer brick walls have collapsed (70 kPa)
- The damage is not repairable; 50% to 75% of the outer brick walls are lightly
to heavily damaged. The remaining brick walls are unreliable (35 kPa)
- Not habitable without major repair works. Partial roof failures, 25% of all brick
walls have failed, serious damage to the remaining carrying elements. Damage
to window frames and doors (7-15 kPa)
- Habitable after relatively easy repairs. Minor structural damage (3 kPa)
- Damage to roofs, ceilings, minor crack formation in plastering, more than 1%
damage to glass panels (1 - 1.5 kPa

The damage is dependent upon the overpressure obtained at Xd.

5.5.49 Damage to structures (empirical) at Xd

Damage to structures (empirical) at Xd


This is the damage suffered by a structure if this one was situated at the point of study.

19 different situations can be found:


- The supporting structure of a round storage tank has collapsed (100 kPa). '
- Brickstone walls (20-30 cm) have collapsed (50 kPa). '
- Displacement of a cylindrical storage tank, failure of connecting pipes (50-
100 kPa). '
- Loaded train carriages turned over (50 kPa). '
- Collapse of a pipe-bridge (40-55 kPa). '
- Displacement of a pipe-bridge, rupture of piping (35-40 kPa). '
- Damage to a fractioning column (35-80 kPa). '
- Plating of cars and trucks pressed inwards (35 kPa). '
- Breakage of wooden telephone poles (35 kPa). '
- Cladding of light industry building ripped-off (30 kPa). '
- Collapse of steel frames and displacement of foundation (20 kPa). '

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- Industrial steel self-framing structure collapsed (20-30 kPa). '


- Cracking in empty oil-storage tanks (20-30 kPa). '
- Slight deformation of a pipe-bridge (20-30 kPa). '
- Large trees have fallen down (20-40 kPa). '
- Walls made of concrete blocks have collapsed (15-20). '
- Minor damage to steel frames (8-10 kPa). '
- Connections between steel or aluminium ondulated plates have failed 7-14
kPa). '
- The roof of a storage tank has collapsed (7 kPa). '

The damage is dependent upon the overpressure obtained at Xd..

5.5.50 Damage to typical American-style houses at Xd

Damage to typical American-style houses at Xd

This is the damage suffered by a typical American-style house if this one was situated at
the point of study.

4 different situations can be found:


- Total collapse of building (70 kPa)
- Serious damage. Collapse of some walls (30 kPa)
- Moderate to minor damage. Deformed walls and doors; failure of joints.
Doors and window frames have failed. Wall covering has fallen down (15 kPa)
- Minor damage. Comparable to a damage due to a storm; wooden walls fail,
breakage of windows (7-10 kPa)

The damage is dependent upon the overpressure obtained at Xd.

5.5.51 Day Month Year number


Day ,Month and year numbers

The day, month and year number are used for the calculation of the actual solar heat
radiation. This value directly influences the angle the sun and a horizontal earth surface, on a
specified earth latitude

For maximum solar heat radiation, day 21 and month 6 (June) can be used, 21 12
(December) provides the minimum solar radiation.

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5.5.52 Default mixingheight

Default mixingheight

Used in dispersion calculations. Default value 500.0 m

5.5.53 Define population by


Define population by

A choice to define the population either by absolute number of people, or by population


density.

If population density is used, the total number of people will change whenever the area of the
polygon is changed.

If total number of people is defined, the density will be influenced by the definition of the area.

5.5.54 Density at time T


Density at time T

If the user has specified "calculate at specified time" this filed will present the density inside
the vessel at this time.

5.5.55 Density gas at pipe exit at time t


Density gas at pipe exit at time t

This is the density of the gas at the pipe exit, at time t

5.5.56 Diameter of expanded jet

Diameter of expanded jet


This is the diameter of the jet after expanding from the release pressure (at the vessel or
pipe) to atmospheric pressure.

When the selected model is the dense gas dispersion, this field is required only for
horizontal and vertical jets types of release.

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5.5.57 Diameter of expanded jet at time t

Diameter of expanded jet at time t


This is the diameter of the jet after expanding from the release pressure (at the vessel or
pipe) to atmospheric pressure at time t after start release.

5.5.58 Discharge coefficient

Discharge coefficient
This is the coefficient (CD) used to take into account the limitation of the flow in a hole due
to contraction and friction phenomena.

Where

Cf = friction coefficient [-]


Cc = contraction coefficient [-]

Contraction is caused by the fact that the fluid in the vessel is flowing into the opening from
all directions, having a velocity component perpendicular to the axis of the opening. The
flowing fluid must be bent in the direction parallel to the holes axis. The inertia of the fluid
results in the smallest cross-sectional area, with no radical acceleration, that is smaller
than the area of the opening.
For sharp orifices contraction plays a roll and friction is negligible, and the following value
for the discharge coefficient (Cd) is recommended:

Cd (sharp orifices) 0.62

For rounded orifices contraction does not play a roll and friction is small, and the following
value for the discharge coefficient (Cd) is recommended:

Cd (rounded orifices) 0.95 0.99

5.5.59 Distance from center of the pool (Xd)

Distance from center of the pool (Xd)


Distance (Xd) of the object/observer to center of pool, as indicated in the figure

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5.5.60 Distance from centre mass of confined explosive cloud to point of study

Distance from center mass of confined explosive cloud to point of study


This is the distance from the center mass of the confined explosive cloud considered to the
point of study, where the method results are calculated.

In the Multi energy method, the overpressure, dynamic pressure, pressure impulse and
positive phase duration calculation depends upon this distance. In the TNT equivalency
method, only the overpressure calculation depends upon this distance, as it is the only
parameter that can be calculated.

5.5.61 Distance from centre mass of the cloud at which threshold overpressure is
reached
Distance from center mass of the cloud at which threshold overpressure is
reached
This is the distance from the center mass of the confined explosive cloud at which the
input threshold overpressure is reached for a given vapour cloud explosion scenario.

5.5.62 Distance from centre of vessel (Xd)

Distance from center of vessel (Xd)


Horizontal coordinate (Xd) from the point of study (i.e. the point where the overpressure
and pressure impulse are to be calculated).

The definition of that distance for the BLEVE model can be observed in the following figure.

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5.5.63 Distance from release (Xd)

Distance from release (Xd)

Not to be confused with X (without the d), which is the X-coordinate of the release.

Gas dispersion and Plume models


Downwind horizontal coordinate (Xd) from the point of study (i.e. the point where the
concentration is to be calculated) to the release point.

Vapour Cloud Explosion models


This is the distance between the point where the release of the chemical started (release
point) and the point of study (where overpressure is to be calculated). The center mass of
the cloud is found in between these two points, situated in the hypothetical line that can be
drawn between the release and the study points.
The models deal with the distances from the point of study to the center mass of the
confined explosive cloud (the so-called Distance form center mass of the confined
explosive cloud), and thats the distance used in the output graphs.
The different points and distances are shown in the figure below, to make the
understanding easier.

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Chamberlain Model
This is the downwind distance Xd of the object/observer from release point of the chemical.

5.5.64 Distance perpendicular to wind direction (Yd)

Distance perpendicular to wind direction (Yd)


Cross-wind horizontal coordinate of the point of study (i.e. the point where the
concentration is to be calculated). Not to be confused with Y (without the d), which is the Y-
coordinate of the release.

5.5.65 Distance to plume touch-down

Distance to plume touch-down


This is the down-wind distance from the source point (the stack) to the point at which the
negatively buoyant plume does the touch-down (gets in contact with the ground).

This output is only calculated for negatively buoyant plumes.

5.5.66 Distance to toxic dose D or fraction of mortality F

Distance to toxic dose D or fraction of mortality F


Distance (at Yd, Zd) between the release point and the (last) location at which a toxic dose
D or a fraction of mortality F is found.

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5.5.67 Dose at (Xd, Yd, Zd)

Dose at (Xd, Yd, Zd)


This is the toxic dose at point of study Xd, Yd, Zd.

5.5.68 Dose reduction at t

Dose reduction at t
This is the unitary fraction of reduced toxic dose (outdoors toxic dose minus indoors toxic
dose) on the basis of the outdoors toxic dose.

Where:
DR: concentration reduction [-]
Do: concentration outdoors [kg/m 3]
Di: concentration indoors [kg/m 3]

5.5.69 Duration of the fire

Duration of the fire


Pool fire model
This is the total duration of the pool fire, which is found by dividing the total mass released
by the rate of combustion.

BLEVE model
This is the duration of the fireball, which is calculated from the quantity of combustible
material released in case of a complete failure of the tank, according to: t=0.852 * m0.26.

5.5.70 Duration of the release

Duration of the release


This is the duration of a semi-continuous release. It is assumed that a release begins at t =
0s and stops at t = treleases. .

This field is required only for semi-continuous releases.

It has to be reminded that evaporating pool, horizontal jet and vertical jet releases (dense

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gas types of releases) are considered semi-continuous.

5.5.71 Equivalency factor

Equivalency factor
This is the factor used by the model to obtain the equivalent TNT mass, which is required
in the further calculations.

There are mass and energy equivalency factors, but in the literature it is more usual to find
factors for TNT equivalency based upon energy.
Paragraph 5.3.2 of the Yellow book gives some examples of sources and advised values
for the equivalency factors.

Usually (default) a factor of 10% is used, but the value can also be related to the activity of
the chemical:
- Low reactive : 5%
- Medium reactive : 10%
- High reactive: 15 %

5.5.72 Equivalent TNT mass

Equivalent TNT mass


This is the TNT mass with which the TNT equivalency method calculations have been
performed.

5.5.73 Evacuation time

Evacuation time
This parameters describes the time required for evacuation. It acts as a limiting time for
exposure calculations. Default is 1000000000 sec.

The evacuation time defaults to a large value, which means no evacuation occurs. When you
set this value to for example 7200 seconds (4 hours), the program will stop toxic dose
integration after 7200 seconds assuming that the people are evacuated by then. This value
does not influence all heat radiation en blast calculations as the effect happens in seconds
and there is no time to evacuate at all. We do not encourage to alter this value as not all
dispersion models can yet work with this value.

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5.5.74 Evaporation from Land or Water


Evaporation from Land or Water

The pool evaporation model has two modes of operation: from Land or Water.

The evaporation behavior is strongly influenced by the heat transfer, which is - in case of
evaporation from water - very high.

Note that, with evaporation from land, another choice: "Type of subsoil" is provided.

5.5.75 Exit vapor mass fraction


Exit vapor mass fraction

This parameter defines the fraction of the material which is vaporized: not a liquid anymore

5.5.76 Exit vapour mass fraction at time t

Exit vapour mass fraction at time t


This is the vapour mass fraction at pipe exit calculated at time t after start release.

If the vessel is emptied at time tempty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should
be calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty. A warning will be generated to inform
the user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.

5.5.77 Expansion type

Expansion type
This is the type of expansion considered to happen in the vapour phase of the vessel
during the emptying process (vessel dynamics).

According to Poisson law, during an expansion process of a gas the factor P*Vn is
constant; three different types of expansion are physically found, and a different value for n
(expansion factor) is found for each of them. The expansion types are:
- Adiabatic (no loss of heat during the expansion)
- Isothermal (no variation on temperature during expansion)
- Polytropic (between purely adiabatic and purely isothermal, which seems to
be the case in real practice)

5.5.78 Explosive Mass

Explosive Mass
This is the amount of chemical that can be found in the vicinity of the jet within the

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flammable limits (upper and lower flammability limits).

In some cases, due to the specificities of the scenario, concentrations higher than the LEL
are found in the limit of momentum region. In such a case, explosive mass would be found
in the intermediate region of the jet. The explosive mass out of the momentum region is not
taken into account when performing the jets explosive mass calculations. This mass can
be calculated with the appropriate linking of the turbulent free jet with a vapour cloud
dispersion model.

5.5.79 Explosive mass at time t

Explosive mass at time t


Explosive mass in gas cloud at time of study t (semi-continuous and instantaneous
releases) or at any time (continuous releases).

5.5.80 Exposure duration

Toxic Exposure duration


The exposure duration is used to calculate a toxic dose, integrating the concentration
(modified including the probit constants) as function of time over that period. (see inclined
lines in graph at start of exposure).
The duration of exposure is needed as the dose increases the longer one is exposed to an
effect. Normally, a default value of 30min (1800s) is used.

If in a given location the effect duration is lower than the exposure duration (the passage
time of the toxic cloud is around 60s and the user chose an exposure duration of 1800s)
EFFECTS will internally rearrange the exposure duration so there is not a loss of accuracy
in the result of the integration process.

Example
The exposure duration is a powerful tool to model evacuation or sheltering. Say, a release
happens and people can find shelter after 10 minutes. If we assume that people can find
100% shelter inside houses we can model this as follows:
1. Set the start of exposure to zero
2. Set the exposure duration to the time that people can find shelter (600s)
In this case the model starts the exposure at t = zero, which means that people close to
the source of release will suffer from the effects but people further away from the release
will be exposed to lower concentrations because the cloud has not reached them yet. All
these are taken into account by the model.

NOTE 1: Future versions of the neutral gas dispersion model might take into account that
people inside houses will still be exposed to (lower) concentrations.

NOTE 2: For heat radiation, a dedicated "heat exposure duration" parameter is used, which

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is default 20 seconds, because the human reaction to intensive heat radiation is much
quicker.
5.5.81 Exposure duration to heat radiation

Exposure duration to heat radiation

Time of exposure of object/observer to heat radiation from the BLEVE or the pool fire.

5.5.82 Extrapolated time to empty pipeline

Extrapolated time to empty pipeline


Time needed to empty the whole pipeline without the model valid time. The Morrow model
is valid until the distance to the interface is larger then half-length of the pipeline. By
comparing the initial mass content in the pipeline with the mass removed it may appear
that the pipeline is not empty after the last time step. If so, it is recommended to continue
the predicted mass flow rate of the last time step until all remaining mass will be removed
(extrapolated mass flow rate). In the output box the extrapolated time is shown without the
time that is need for the Morrow model calculations.
5.5.83 Filling degree (liquid volume/tank volume)

Filling degree (liquid volume/tank volume)


This is the percentage of the vessels volume which is full of liquid at initial conditions. A
vessel with no liquid in it has a 0% filling degree and a vessel only filled with liquid has a
100% filling degree.

Filling degree = 100% * Volume liquid / Volume vessel

Attention: Some older versions of EFFECTS / Riskcurves interpreted a filling degree as a


relative liquid height.
The liquid height in a sphere or a horizontal vessel is not linear with filling degree (or the
liquid volume). Example: A vessel with a total volume of 100 m 3 with 80% filling degree (80
m 3) gives a relative liquid height of 80% in a vertical vessel, but in a 80% filling degree
sphere of 100 m 3 a relative liquid height of 71%.

This field is not required when the vessel contains non-ideal gases or when the cause of
the failure is the decomposition of materials (Rupture of Vessel scenario).

5.5.84 Filling degree at time t

Filling degree at time t


This is the calculated filling degree at the time of study t.

The filling degree is the liquid volume in relation to the total vessel volume in terms of

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percentage.

Filling degree = 100% * Volume liquid / Volume vessel

If the vessel is emptied at time tempty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should
be calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty. A warning will be generated to inform
the user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.

5.5.85 Fixed indoors outdoors toxic ratio


Fixed indoors outdoors toxic ratio

By default, the indoor toxic calculation uses a ratio of 1/10: lethality inside is one tenth of
lethality outside.

For long release durations, high exposures, or high ventilation ratios, this may be a very
optimistic assumption: even an outside dose which is much higher than 100% lethality still
has maximum 100% lethality, thus 10% lethality inside. For that reason it is advised to use
Toxic Indoor calculation method

5.5.86 Flame path length

Flame path length


When utilizing the GAME method for explosion overpressure estimation the formula requires a flam
path length. This is the maxium distance that a flame can accelerate within a congestion area,
usually taken as the distance from the ignition center to the boundary of the flammable cloud.
In EFFECTS 10, it is possible to let the software determine the overlap of a flammable cloud with a
congestion area, If this approach is not used, the user will have to provide a flame path length, which
can be taken as "half of the length of the LFL contour" IF the full contour is captured. If only a part of
the flammable cloud is captured it is usually half of the longest distances within the congested space.
(assuming ignition in the centre)

5.5.87 Flame temperature

Flame temperature

Estimation of the temperature of the burning flame due to this chemical, default is 1200 K
(= 926.85 C).

For other chemicals the following flame temperatures can be used:


Flammable material Temperature Flame
(K)
Liq. H2 1600
LNG 1500
Benzene 1490

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Gasoline 1450
Kerosine 1480
JP-5 1250
Methanol 1300
Ethanol 1490

[Brabrauskas, V., Estimating Large


Pool Fire Burning Rates, Fire Technology, 1983, pp. 251-261]

5.5.88 Flame tilt

Flame tilt
Tilt angle of the flame (q), as indicated in the figure

5.5.89 Fraction combustion heat radiated

Fraction combustion heat radiated

Fraction of the generated heat radiated from flame surface. This value is dependent of the
type of chemical and diameter of the pool.
The yellow book table 6.6 provides the following experimental values:

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5.5.90 Fraction confined mass in ME

Fraction confined mass in Multi energy explosion method


The multi energy method for explosions has an important parameter "Fraction confined
mass".

Default this one is set to 8.0 %. Although this value is quite unrealistic, it appears to give
answers comparable to the old TNT method.

5.5.91 Fraction of CO2 in Atmosphere

Fraction of CO2 in Atmosphere


The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere can be used for transmissivity calculations of solar
light. An average value is 0.03%

5.5.92 Fraction of flammable cloud confined

Fraction of flammable cloud confined


Thats the volume percentage of the explosive cloud (part of the vapour cloud within
explosive limits) which is confined/obstructed.
As a default, the value from the the System Parameters value "Fraction confined mass
ME" will be used
The fraction of flammable cloud confined is of great importance, as the mass of chemical
found in the confined region is the one used by the model to do the calculations. This
means that for a given scenario, the results obtained will be the same if we input 2,000 kg
in "Total mass in explosive range" and 50% in "Fraction of flammable cloud confined" (so
1,000 kg of confined explosive mass) or we input 10,000 kg in "Total mass in explosive
range" and 10% in "Fraction of flammable cloud confined" (1,000 kg of confined explosive
mass as well).

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It has been experimentally demonstrated, as can be found in the 3rd edition of the Yellow
Book, that only the confined/obstructed parts of the explosive cloud contribute to the
deflagration/detonation phenomenon.

5.5.93 Fraction of liberated energy going to kinetic energy

Fraction of liberated energy going to kinetic energy


This is the fraction of the overall liberated energy that will be transformed into kinetic energy
of the fragments formed as consequence of the vessels failure.

In Yellow Book 3rd Ed some recommended values are found:


- 60% upper limit
- 20% rough estimate
- 4% in case of BLEVE

Note the importance of this value and its influence on the reliability of the final results. With
the rough estimate the initial velocity can sometimes be underestimated considerably.

When performing BLEVE fragment range calculations, a value of 4%, as suggested by


Yellow Book, is used.

5.5.94 Fraction of mortality at (Xd, Yd, Zd)

Fraction of mortality at (Xd, Yd, Zd)


This is the fraction of mortality at point of study Xd, Yd, Zd.

5.5.95 Fraction of the flame covered by soot

Fraction of the flame covered by soot

The fraction of the flame which is covered by soot influences the actual heat radiation of
the flame.
When soot fraction choice for 'Calculate/Default" is made, the Yellow Book value of 0.8 will
be used.
Within the "Two Zone pool fire" model, the soot fraction will be chemical dependent as
described in the
publication of "Rew and Hubert".

If "User defined" is selected, the required value of the soot fraction can be defined
manually:

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0 = no soot, clear flame,


1 = completely covered flame

5.5.96 Fragment distribution

Fragment distribution
Combo Box where the four different common types of fragment distribution after vessel
rupture are shown. Those are:
- 2 equal pieces
- 2 unequal pieces
- 2 caps and body
- Many equal pieces

The third case (3 unequal pieces) is the typical case for a cylinder that is ruptured in the
union between the main body and the two caps. It can not be selected if the vessel type is
a sphere.

5.5.97 Froude Number

Froude Number
Non-dimensional number used as a measure for the relative importance of initial
momentum and buoyancy.

5.5.98 Frustum lift off height (b)

Frustum lift off height (b)


As indicated in the figure, b is the lift off height of the flame.

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5.5.99 GAME equivalent curve number


GAME equivalent curve number

This parameter defines, when using the GAME correlations, the resulting strength of the
explosion when comparing to the original curve numbers. It is directly related to the calculated
maximum overpressure. This equivalent curve number is used to (logarithmically) interpolate
values from the curves after the starting point Pmax has been found.

5.5.100 GAME expansion type


Game Expansion Type

This parameter defines, when using the GAME correlations, whether an open 3D
environment, or confined between parallel planes situation 2D situation applies. Choices are
3D or 2D

5.5.101 Graph Area of the cloud above LEL at release level vs. Time

Graph Area of the cloud above LEL at release level vs. Time
Equivalent graph in scales and limitations as the explosive mass vs. time but instead of
explosive mass, the area of the cloud (delimited by the LEL concentration) at the release
height is represented.

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5.5.102 Graph Circle circumscribed to maximum distance to threshold concentration


at Zd
Graph Circle circumscribed to maximum distance to threshold concentration at Zd
Graph where a horizontal contour plot (X-Y plane) is represented at Zd. The points of the
contour are all at the same distance from the release point; this distance is the maximum
distance from the release point at which the threshold concentration is reached.

The scale limitations are the same as for the Concentration contour plot.

Thats the graph obtained with the Concentration contour plot showed in the previous
paragraph; the maximum distance at which the threshold concentration is reached is 500m
so all the points of the plot are 500m from the release, located at x = y = 0m in that case.

5.5.103 Graph Concentration Contour Plot

Graph Concentration Contour Plot

Dense and Neutral gas dispersion models

Graph where a horizontal contour plot (so in the X-Y plane) is represented at Zd. The points
of the curve have a concentration of threshold (see "Threshold concentration") with an
associated accuracy (see "Contour plot accuracy").

The only limit in range is the minimum down-wind distance value, which is 1 cm above the
half-length of the source. No extrapolation is done to obtain a continuous contour (in up-
wind positions), neutral gas dispersion is only valid in down-wind locations out of the
source.

Turbulent free jet model

Graph where a contour plot (in the S-Y plane, containing to the jets axis) is represented.
The points of the curve have a concentration of threshold (see "Threshold concentration")
with an associated accuracy (see "Contour plot accuracy").

No extrapolation is done to obtain a continuous contour (out of the momentum zone), the
turbulent free jet model is only valid in the momentum zone.

5.5.104 Graph Concentration in the plume vs Distance

Graph Concentration in the plume center-line vs Distance from stack


Graph where the concentration in the plumes center-line is represented as function of the
distance from the release point or stack (Xd).

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The range of the distance scale goes from the release point, which is situated at 0m to the
down-wind distance at which the maximum height of the plume is reached.

5.5.105 Graph Concentration vs Axial distance at Yd

Graph Concentration vs Axial distance at Yd


Graph where concentration of chemical is represented as function of the axial distance
from the jets release point, at the radial distance Yd the user chose in the inputs.

The range of the axial distance scale ranges from 0 (where the possible expansion of the
jet is finished) to the point of study (Sd). If Sd is higher than the limit of the momentum
region, the maximum distance of the range is the limit of the momentum region itself, as
the model is not valid out of the momentum region.

5.5.106 Graph Concentration vs. Down-wind distance at time t and (Yd, Zd)

Graph Concentration vs. Down-wind distance at time t and (Yd, Zd)


Graph where concentration is represented as function of the down-wind distance (Xd),
being all the locations on the line defined by Yd and Zd.

The range of the distance scale goes from 1 cm above the half-length of the source to Xd.

5.5.107 Graph Concentration vs. Time at (Xd, Yd, Zd)

Graph Concentration vs. Time at (Xd, Yd, Zd)


Graph where concentration is represented as function of the time since the release started,
at the down-wind location defined by Xd, Yd and Zd.

The range of the time scale goes from 0 to the time of study t.

This graph can only be obtained for instantaneous and semi-continuous releases.

5.5.108 Graph Distance from rupture to interface vs Time (COPY)

Graph Distance from rupture to interface vs Time


Graph where the distance from the rupture to the interface is represented as function of the
time from the start of the release.

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The Morrow model is valid until the distance to the interface is larger than half-length of the
pipeline. The time needed for the models calculations is shown in the output box Model
valid until time. After this the calculations continues with the predicted mass flow rate of
the last time step until all mass is removed.

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

5.5.109 Graph Dynamic pressure vs Distance

Graph Dynamic pressure vs Distance


Graph where the peak dynamic pressure is represented as function of the distance from
the center mass of the confined explosive cloud.

The range of the distance scale goes from the center mass of the confined explosive cloud
(which is set to 0) to the point of study.

5.5.110 Graph Explosive mass vs. Time

Graph Explosive mass vs. Time


Graph where the explosive mass (only considered the one down-wind!) is represented as
function of time.

The range of the time scale goes from 0s to the time of study t in case of instantaneous
release and to 1.1 * timerelease in case of semi-continuous release (for higher times the

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explosive mass is 0).

This graph can only be obtained for instantaneous and semi-continuous releases; for a
continuous release we can only obtain the steady explosive mass value.

5.5.111 Graph Filling degree vs Time

Graph Filling degree vs Time


Graph where the filling degree inside the vessel is represented as function of the time from
the start of the release.

The filling degree is the liquid volume in relation to the total vessel volume in terms of
percentage.

Filling degree = 100% * Volume liquid / Volume vessel

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

5.5.112 Graph Fraction of mortality vs. Down-wind distance at (Yd, Zd)

Graph Fraction of mortality vs. Down-wind distance at (Yd, Zd)


Equivalent graph in scales and limitations as the toxic dose vs. down-wind distance but
instead of toxic dose, the equivalent fraction of mortality is represented.

5.5.113 Graph Height of the liquid inside the vessel vs Time

Graph Height of the liquid inside the vessel vs Time


Graph where height of the liquid inside the vessel is represented as function of the time
from the start of the release.

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

5.5.114 Graph Jet velocity vs Axial distance at Yd

Graph Jet velocity vs Axial distance at Yd


Graph where the velocity of the jet is represented as function of the axial distance from the
jets release point, at the radial distance Yd the user chose in the inputs.

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The range of the axial distance scale ranges from 0 (where the possible expansion of the
jet is finished) to the point of study (Sd). If Sd is higher than the limit of the momentum
region, the maximum distance of the range is the limit of the momentum region itself, as
the model is not valid out of the momentum region.

5.5.115 Graph Mass flow rate vs Time

Graph Mass flow rate vs Time


Graph where the mass flow rate exiting the piping is represented as function of the time
from the start of the release.

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

5.5.116 Graph Mass of liquid remaining in the vessel vs Time

Graph Mass of liquid remaining in the vessel vs Time


Graph where the mass of liquid remaining in the vessel is represented as function of the
time from the start of the release.

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

5.5.117 Graph Mass of vapour remaining in the vessel vs Time

Graph Mass of vapour remaining in the vessel vs Time


Graph where the mass of vapour remaining in the vessel is represented as function of the
time from the start of the release.

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

5.5.118 Graph Maximum concentration vs Downwind distance

Graph Maximum concentration vs. Down-wind distance


Graph where the maximum concentration in time is represented as function of the down-
wind distance (x), being all the locations on the line defined by Yd and Zd.

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The range of the distance scale goes from 1 cm above the half-length of the source to Xd.

This graph can only be obtained for instantaneous and semi-continuous releases; for a
continuous release the concentration in one location is steady, it has no dependency upon
time.

Depending of the model, the graph can be presented at release height, at ground level
(heavy gas) or at receiver height Zd

5.5.119 Graph Maximum range contour plot

Graph Maximum range contour plot


Graph where all the points in the ground plane where a fragment will land are represented.
In case two different types of fragments are obtained after the burst (if "2 unequal pieces"
or "2 caps and body" was selected in the "Fragment distribution" field), the largest range
will be used to generate the plot.

5.5.120 Graph Overpressure contour plot

Graph Overpressure contour plot


Graph where all the points in the ground plane where a certain threshold overpressure will
be reached are represented.

5.5.121 Graph Overpressure vs Distance

Graph Overpressure vs Distance


Graph where the peak overpressure is represented as function of the distance from the
center mass of the confined explosive cloud (Vapour Cloud Explosion scenario) or from
the center of the vessel (Rupture of Vessel scenario).

Range of the distance scale:


- From the center mass of the confined explosive cloud (which is set to 0) to
the point of study (Vapour Cloud Explosion scenario).
- From the first distance where the experimental graphs can be used (non
dimensional distance higher than 0.1) to Xd (if Xd is higher than this first
distance, else it is represented till 100m above this first distance) (Rupture of
Vessels scenario).

5.5.122 Graph Plume height vs Distance from stack

Graph Plume height vs Distance from stack

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Graph where the height of the center-line of the plume is represented as function of the
distance from the release point or stack (Xd).

The range of the distance scale goes from the release point, which is situated at 0m to the
down-wind distance at which the maximum height of the plume is reached (in case of
positively buoyant plume) or to the down-wind distance at which the plumes touch-down
occurs (in case of negatively buoyant plume)

5.5.123 Graph Plume radius vs Distance from stack

Graph Plume radius vs Distance from stack


Graph where the radius of the plume of the plume is represented as function of the
distance from the release point or stack (Xd).

This graph is only calculated for positively buoyant plumes.

The range of the distance scale goes from the release point, which is situated at 0m to the
down-wind distance at which the maximum height of the plume is reached.

5.5.124 Graph Positive phase duration vs Distance

Graph Positive phase duration vs Distance


Graph where the duration of the positive phase of the blast wave is represented as function
of the distance from the center mass of the confined explosive cloud.

The range of the distance scale goes from the center mass of the confined explosive cloud
(which is set to 0) to the point of study.

5.5.125 Graph Pressure at pipe exit vs Time

Graph Pressure at pipe exit vs Time


Graph where the pressure at the pipe exit is represented as function of the time from the
start of the release.

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

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5.5.126 Graph Pressure impulse vs Distance

Graph Pressure impulse vs Distance


Graph where the pressure impulse is represented as function of the distance from the
center mass of the confined explosive cloud (Vapour Cloud Explosion scenario) or from
the center of the vessel (Rupture of Vessels scenario).

Range of the distance scale:


- From the center mass of the confined explosive cloud (which is set to 0) to
the point of study (Vapour Cloud Explosion scenario).
- The same as for the overpressure vs distance graph (Rupture of Vessels
scenario).

5.5.127 Graph Quality outflow at pipe exit vs Time

Graph Quality outflow at pipe exit vs Time


Graph where the quality of the outflow is represented as function of the time from the start
of the release.

The quality of the outflow is the vapour fraction in proportion to the total mass fraction.
Vapour outflow => quality = 1
Two-phase outflow => 0 < quality < 1
Liquid outflow => quality = 0

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

5.5.128 Graph Temperature at pipe exit vs Time

Graph Temperature at pipe exit vs Time


Graph where temperature of the released gas, liquid or two-phase mixture at pipe exit is
represented as function of the time from the start of the release.

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

5.5.129 Graph Temperature vs Axial distance

Graph Temperature vs Axial distance

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Graph where the temperature in the jet is represented as function of the axial distance from
the jets release point, at 0 radial distance (so in the jets axis).

The range of the axial distance scale ranges from 0 (where the possible expansion of the
jet is finished) to the point of study (Sd). If Sd is higher than the limit of the momentum
region, the maximum distance of the range is the limit of the momentum region itself, as
the model is not valid out of the momentum region.

5.5.130 Graph Total mass released vs Time

Graph Total mass released vs Time


Graph where the total amount of mass released through the piping is represented as
function of the time from the start of the release.

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

5.5.131 Graph Toxic Contour Plot

Graph Toxic Contour Plot


Graph where a horizontal contour plot (in the X-Y plane) is represented at Zd. The points of
the curve have a toxic dose or fraction of mortality of threshold (see "Threshold dose D",
"Threshold fraction of mortality F" and "Calculate contour by") with an associated accuracy
(see "Contour plot accuracy").

The scale limitations are the same as for the Concentration contour plot.

5.5.132 Graph Toxic dose vs. Down-wind distance at (Yd, Zd)

Graph Toxic dose vs. Down-wind distance at (Yd, Zd)


Graph where the toxic dose reached at one location is represented as function of the
down-wind position, being all the locations on the line defined by Yd and Zd.

The range of the distance scale goes from 1 cm above the half-length of the source to Xd.

5.5.133 Graph Vessel pressure vs Time

Graph Vessel pressure vs Time

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Graph where the pressure present in the vapour part of the vessel is represented as
function of the time from the start of the release.

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

5.5.134 Graph Vessel temperature vs Time

Graph Vessel temperature vs Time


Graph where the temperature in the vessel is represented as function of the time from the
start of the release.

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

5.5.135 Graph Void fraction at pipe exit vs Time

Graph Void fraction at pipe exit vs Time


Graph where the vapour mass fraction at pipe exit is represented as function of the time
from the start of the release.

The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.

5.5.136 Grid resolution

Grid resolution
The resolution of the grid (the number of calculation points) for plotting the contour plots for
the different values of the heat radiation

5.5.137 Ground / Surface/ Bund temperature

Ground / Surface/ Bund temperature


The average yearly temperature of the subsoil that you want to use for pool evaporation
calculations. In general, the higher the temperature the larger the evaporation rate and
consequences.

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5.5.138 Heat emission from fire surface

Heat emission from fire surface


This is the actual surface emissive power of the fire (pool fire, fireball), which equals the
maximum surface emissive power when there is no soot formation.

For the calculation of the actual surface emissive power ( ) of a radiating body the
following equation is evaluated: , in which is the fraction of
the surface of the flame which is covered by soot. For the value as found by
Hgglund [Hgglund, B. and Persson, L.E. The heat radiation from petroleum fires, FOA
Rapport C201126-D6 (July 1976)] of .

5.5.139 Heat flux from solar radiation


Heat flux from solar radiation

Presents the resulting solar heat radiation flux as used in pool evaporation calculations. It can
be the actual value supplied as input, or calculated value, dependent on cloud cover, latitude
and day/month number

5.5.140 Heat of reaction per kg product

Heat of reaction per kg product


This is the heat liberated in the decomposition of the chemical(s) per kg of product. This
heat must always be positive.

This field is only required for "Decomposition of materials" as cause of the vessels failure.

5.5.141 Heat radiation at Xd

Heat radiation at Xd

This is the heat radiation ( ) produced by the fireball (BLEVE) or fire (Chamberlain, Pool
fire) at a certain position Xd as defined in distance from release Xd.

The heat radiation is found by evaluating the following equation: .

5.5.142 Heat radiation damage probits


Heat radiation damage probits

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By default, the vulnerability model (probit function) as described in the Green Book [4] has
been used for the exposure to heat radiation:

with q = the heat radiation level in [W/m 2] and t = the exposure duration in [sec], which is
assumed to be maximum 20 sec (defined by parameter max heat radiation exposure
duration). The probit value is transferred to a fraction of mortality (0..1) afterwards. This
implies a probit A of -36.38, Probit B = 2.56, and probit N = 4/3

Because some countries are accustomed to use other probits, these A, B and N values can
be modified.

The methodology described above is valid for individual and societal risk, but for inside
population a protection of 100% is assumed, as long as the level is lower than the heat
radiation total destruction level.

How to convert a probit to a fraction of mortality


The probit value Pr as mentioned several times in the chapters before varies between 2 and
9. To convert the probit value to a percentage of mortality, the table below is used.

The probit values are listed within the table itself. From the side and the top of the table, the
percentage of mortality can be read. For example: A probit value of 4.01 (second row)
corresponds with a value of 16% mortality.

% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

0 2.67 2.95 3.12 3.25 3.36 3.45 3.52 3.59 3.66


10 3.72 3.77 3.82 3.87 3.92 3.96 4.01 4.05 4.08 4.12
20 4.16 4.19 4.23 4.26 4.29 4.33 4.36 4.39 4.42 4.45
30 4.48 4.50 4.53 4.56 4.59 4.61 4.64 4.67 4.69 4.72
40 4.75 4.77 4.80 4.92 4.85 4.87 4.90 4.92 4.95 4.97
50 5.00 5.03 5.05 5.08 5.10 5.13 5.15 5.18 5.20 5.23
60 5,25 5.28 5.31 5.33 5.36 5.39 5.41 5.44 5.47 5.50
70 5.52 5.55 5.58 5.61 5.64 5.67 5.71 5.74 5.77 5.81
80 5.84 5.88 5.92 5.95 5.99 6.04 6.08 6.13 6.18 6.23
90 6.28 6.34 6.41 6.48 6.55 6.64 6.75 6.88 7.05 7.33
99 7.33 7.37 7.41 7.46 7.51 7.58 7.65 7.75 7.88 8.09

5.5.143 Heat Radiation Exposure Duration


Heat Radiation Exposure Duration

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This value determines the maximum duration of exposure to heat load, as used in
consequence calculations. Default is set to: 20.0 seconds

5.5.144 Heat radiation level total destruction


Heat radiation level total destruction

This parameter defines the heat radiation level that will be associated with total destruction.
Anything above this level will result in 100% lethality

5.5.145 Heat radiation levels in contour plot

Heat radiation levels in contour plot


Heat radiation threshold values defined by the user for which the different contour plots are
to be generated.

5.5.146 Height (Zd)

Height (Zd)
Vertical (upward) coordinate of the point of study (i.e. the point where the concentration is
to be calculated). Not to be confused with Z (without the d), which is the height of the
release.
When using defaults in dispersion calculation, the System Parameters value "Toxic
Inhalation height" is .

NOTE: In the case that Zd = Z this means the release takes place in the same plane as the
point of study. In the case of Zd = Z = 0 then both release point and point of study are
located at ground level.

5.5.147 Height bottom of the fire ball

Height bottom of the fire ball


The lift-off height of the fireball (Hbleve) as indicated in the figure, is calculated according to
Hbleve = 2 * rfb, thus the height bottom of the fire ball equals the radius of the fireball.

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5.5.148 Height difference between pipe entrance and exit

Height difference between pipe entrance and exit


This is the maximum limiting height difference that the fluid will have to overcome during
the flow on the piping. It is expressed as the height at the exit of the piping minus the height
at the entrance; so if the fluid flows down from the beginning, the height difference will be
negative but if it has to flow up, it will be possible.

This input is present to take into account the height to overcome as an impediment to the
flow and the height to be flown down as an enhancement of the flow.

5.5.149 Height leak above tank bottom

Height leak above tank bottom

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This is the height of the hole in a vertical cylindrical vessel from the bottom of the vessel.

5.5.150 Height of confined pool above ground level


Height of the confined pool above ground level

This parameter can be used to define an elevated poolfire, such as a rooftop fire of oiltanks.

Because the poolfire is elevated, heat radiation may reach further, but at close distance
radiation will be lower due to the higher distance to the flame.

5.5.151 Height of congested area


Height of congested area

This parameter defines the height of a congestion zone, thus limiting the amount of explosive
mass which can be captured inside this area. The maximum mass will be calculated based
on the available volume within this height, when filled with a stochiometric concentration of the
chemical released.

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5.5.152 Height of construction


Height of construction

This parameter defines the height of a construction which can be defined as a vulnerable
area.

5.5.153 Height of liquid at time t

Height of liquid at time t

This is the height of the liquid phase inside the vessel at the time of study t.

If the vessel is emptied at time tempty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should
be calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty. A warning will be generated to inform
the user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.

5.5.154 Height of observer above ground level


Height of the observer position above ground level

This parameter can be used to define the receiver of the heat radiation to be at a specific
height.

Because the pool fire is modelled as a tilted cylinder, a receiver at height might be closer to
the flame leading to higher values downwind of the fire.

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5.5.155 Height of pool at T=0


Height of the pool at T=0

This parameter can be used to define an existing pool height at the start of the release.

5.5.156 Height of the plume's centre-line at Xd

Height of the plume's center-line at Xd


This is the height of the plumes center-line at the down-wind point of study Xd.

This output is not calculated, so not shown, when the distance from release (Xd) is higher
than the distance at which the maximum height of the plume is reached (for positively
buoyant plumes) or higher than the distance where the plumes touch-down occurs (for
negatively buoyant plumes).

5.5.157 Height to LEL at time t

Height to LEL at time t


Maximum height, at the time of study (semi-continuous and instantaneous releases) or at
any time (continuous releases) and Yd, at which a concentration of LEL is found.

5.5.158 Hole contraction coefficient

Hole contraction coefficient


This contraction coefficient for sharp edges is used in outflow calculations. Default is 0.62

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5.5.159 Hole diameter

Hole diameter
This is the diameter of the hole through which the gas, liquid or liquefied gas is released,
assuming that the hole has a circular shape

5.5.160 Hole rounding


Hole rounding

The hole rounding is a parameter that influences the discharge coefficient (in outflow models)

The discharge coefficient Cd is in fact determined by two factors: friction and contraction.
Contraction is caused by the fact that the fluid in the vessel is flowing into the opening from all
directions, having a velocity component perpendicular to the axis of the opening. The flowing
fluid must be bent in the direction parallel to the hole axis.
For sharp orifices contraction plays a part and friction is negligible. For this reason Hole
rounding choice
"sharp edges" corresponds to discharge coefficient:Cd = 0.62

For "rounded edges" contraction does not play a part and friction is small; the discharge
coefficient is set to Cd = 1.0

The choice "User defined" enables the input field "Discharge coefficient"

5.5.161 Hole type

Hole type
Combo Box where the kind of break in the pipeline through which the gas is released can
be chosen
- Guillotine break: Fully ruptured pipeline. At the
point of the rupture, the upstream and downstream ends of the
pipe are assumed to be totally separated in such a way that the
flow rates coming from the upstream and downstream pipe
regions are independent. The discharge coefficient (Cd) is in this
case always set to 1.
- Hole in a pipe: Release from a pipeline through a hole
in the pipe. For this type of release is necessary to know the
holes diameter.

5.5.162 Include overpressure effects


Include overpressure effects

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The BLEVE fireball model also allows to calculate overpressure generated by the explosive
evaporation effects. By default, this will be skipped, because the fireball phenomena is usually
dominant over overpressure, but these effects can be included by selecting "Yes" .

Overpressure is calculated by using the Bleve Blast method, which is also available as a
separate explosion model.

5.5.163 Indoor Ventilation ratio


Indoor Ventilation ratio

This parameter is used in the calculation of inside lethality by toxic exposure. The ventilation
ratio highly affects inside toxic exposure. The default value is 1 times per hour, representing
natural ventilation. Note that for mechanical ventilation situation values ranging from 2.5 (living
room) to 10 (bathrooms, moist environment) are common.

5.5.164 Initial density


Initial density

Presents the density of the gas in initial (at t=0) conditions.

5.5.165 Initial height of the liquid above release point

Initial height of the liquid above release point

The initial height of liquid above release point, the hole in the storage tank.

5.5.166 Initial jet pressure

Initial jet pressure

Initial pressure of the gas at (exit) hole or pipe hole, the point where the gas is released.

5.5.167 Initial jet temperature

Initial jet temperature


This is the temperature of the chemical at the release point. The turbulent free jet model
does not consider the expansion of the jet in case the pressure at the exit of the hole/pipe
is higher than the ambient pressure, so the temperature to be filled in this field is the one
reached after the expansion of the chemical.

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5.5.168 Initial liquid mass fraction

Initial liquid mass fraction


This is the mass fraction of liquid droplets contained in the released chemical. The liquid
remaining after the flash (forming a pool in the ground) does not have to be taken into
account, only the droplets in the gas phase.

This field is required only for instantaneous and jet releases. For evaporating pools, no
liquid is present in the release chemical.

5.5.169 Initial mass in vessel

Initial mass in vessel


This is the total mass of chemical initially present inside the vessel.

5.5.170 Initial plume density

Initial plume density


This is the density of the release at the stack exit.

The initial density will determine the behaviour of the plume (positively or negatively
buoyancy) so the composition of the plume should be taken into account (air or other inert
chemicals can decrease or increase the density of the release). The model is only valid for
pure chemicals, but a mixture can be taken into account in the calculation of the initial
density.

5.5.171 Initial pressure in pipeline

Initial pressure in pipeline


Initial absolute pressure of the gas or liquefied gas at the pipe orifice (point at which the
release will happen).

5.5.172 Initial pressure in vessel

Initial pressure in vessel


This is the absolute pressure in the vapour phase of the vessel before the start of the
outflow (rupture of the piping, failure of valve), so at t = 0s.

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5.5.173 Initial source strength


Initial source strength

Presents the mass flow rate in initial (at t=0) conditions

5.5.174 Initial speed of fragment

Initial speed of fragment


This is the initial speed of the considered fragment after the rupture of the vessel.

5.5.175 Initial temperature in pipeline

Initial temperature in pipeline


Initial temperature of the gas or liquefied gas at the pipe orifice (point at which the release
will happen).

5.5.176 Initial temperature in vessel

Initial temperature in vessel


This is the temperature inside the vessel before the start of the outflow (for Outflow
models) or the burst of the vessel (for the Rupture of Vessels or BLEVE models).

When the selected model is the Rupture of Vessels, this field is not required in case the
cause of the vessels rupture is "Pressure liquefied gas, BLEVE" as the temperature can
be obtained from the vapour pressure - temperature data.

5.5.177 Inside fraction


Inside fraction

Defines the fraction of the population which is inside. This affects the number of victims in a
"vulnerable area" because they are partially protected for a toxic cloud (dependent of
ventilation ratio) and heat radiation.

5.5.178 Integration tolerance

Integration tolerance
If you observe one of the following symptoms when dealing with a semi-continuous
release:
Sudden change of results (e.g. from anything to zero) when a small change
in the input has been made
Oscillation of graphs

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Then reducing the integration tolerance (smaller value) will result in higher integration
accuracy and better results.

The software uses a Romberg integration method on various places in the model. This
means that the integration is started in coarse steps and those are gradually refined until
the contribution of the last integration step is smaller than the integration accuracy.
A Romberg integration is fast, powerful but has one major disadvantage: if the accuracy is
too low, it will miss small peaks in the integration domain and when the accuracy is too
high, it takes much calculation time to perform one single integration. The default value of
1% accuracy is an optimum between accuracy and calculation duration.

The integration tolerance is the error (in percent) that can be assumed to be the result of
the time-integral required in every semi-continuous concentration calculation. The integral
is solved numerically and so this tolerance is the ending condition of the numerical
resolution.

Key parameter for time consuming and accuracy of those calculations.

This field is required only for semi-continuous releases.

A lower value indicates a lower integration tolerance and results in higher integration
accuracy!

5.5.179 Inverse Monin-Obukhov Length (1/L)

Inverse Monin-Obukhov Length (1/L)


Length-scale which characterises the atmospheric stability in a continuous scale. When
pasquill stability class has been input, EFFECTS converts it to Monin-Obukhov length and
it appears as an output, with "used" at the end.

Internally, the program does its calculations with Monin-Obukhov lengths, not with
Pasquills 6 stability classes.

In the case the meteorological data is "Pasquill" this field is disabled.

5.5.180 Is the vessel elevated?

Is the vessel elevated?


Combo Box where the user can choose the relative position between the vessel and the
ground. Blast waves resultant from the failure of ground-based vessels get reflected in the
ground, so they lead to higher overpressure values.

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5.5.181 Jet velocity at (Sd, Yd)

Jet velocity at (Sd, Yd)


This is the velocity of the jet at the point of study Sd,Yd.

5.5.182 Latitude

Latitude
Scenarios earth latitude (positive in North or negative for South), expressed in degrees.
The default value is the average in the Netherlands (51 degrees).
A latitude value is used to calculate the Coriolis parameter, which is one of the parameters
used to estimate the mixing height in dispersion models.
The latitude is also applied within the pool evaporation model to calculate the solar heat
radiation flux at a specific date and earth location.This value directly influences the angle
the sun and a horizontal earth surface, on a specified day an month number.

5.5.183 Length cylinder

Length cylinder
This is the length of the cylindrical vessel, assuming it is a geometrical cylinder (plane
caps). The inside diameter of the cylindrical vessel is internally calculated supposing
according to:
4.Volumevessel
Diameter vessel =
p .Lengthvessel

This field is not required for spherical vessels.

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In DIERS model, this is the total height of the vessel, since the model is only valid for
vertical cylindrical vessels.

5.5.184 Length of cloud (between LEL)

Length of cloud (between LEL)


This is the maximum distance (in wind direction, at 0 crosswind distance) between the
locations at which LEL is reached for a horizontal section of the cloud. In other words, it's
the length of the contour in this horizontal section, with LEL as threshold value. For neutral
gases, this horizontal section is taken at the height of the source. For dense gases, it is
taken at ground level.

Time t is the time of study entered by the user, time tmem is the time at which the
explosive mass is maximal, and time tmac is the time at which the area of the LEL-contour
is maximal.

In case of a continuous release, this is the steady state length of the cloud between LEL at
the height mentioned above.

5.5.185 Length of frustum (flame) (Rl)


Length of frustum (flame) (Rl)

As indicated in the figure, Rl is the length of the frustum.

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5.5.186 Length of rectangular pool

Length of rectangular pool


The length (m) of the rectangular pool, in case of a rectangular pool fire.

5.5.187 Length of toxic contour

Length of toxic contour


This is the maximum distance in wind direction between two points of the toxic contour
plot.

5.5.188 Length source in wind (x), crosswind (y) and z-direction

Length source in wind (x), crosswind (y) and z-direction


Source dimensions in along-wind, cross-wind and vertical direction. The default values are
0 m, but the program automatically corrects the dimensions of the source-box consistent
with the density of the chemical at ambient conditions.
Whenever a dimension doesn't fit the amount of mass or the input mass rate, EFFECTS
re-calculates the dimensions of the source (based on atmospheric density, and in case of
continuous or semi-continuous releases, density and windspeed) and generates a log
message.
For example, a 10,000 kg instantaneous release of carbon monoxide in a cubic box of 1 m
sides implies a density (at ambient conditions) of 10,000 kg/m 3, far from the real density at
atmospheric conditions. For this reason, the source dimensions will be redefined as a

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cube with a 20 m side:

In case of instantaneous release, a cubic shape is assumed, in case of a continuous


release, the width and the height of a virtual window are determined:

Note:
When using higher values for initial source dimensions, the model will calculate the
initial concentration of the material based on the initial dimensions. This can be
used to model pre-diluted outflows.

Note 2:
If for a (semi) continuous release, a non-zero length of source is entered, this will
be used as an offset for the start of the contour. This can be used to model the
behaviour of an evaporating pool where the center of the pool is treated as the
release point. The used offset is half the source length.

5.5.189 Length-Diameter ratio of the vessel

Length-Diameter ratio of the vessel

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Ratio between the internal length and diameter of a cylindrical vessel.

This field is not required for spherical vessels.

5.5.190 Lethal fraction damage report


Lethal fraction damage report

In the reporting of calculations, a maximum distance to # % lethality is reported, whereas the


map will also display a surrounding contour for this % lethality distances. The exact level for
this lethality can be specified here, making it possible to display and present other relevant
lethality threshold levels, such as 5%, 10% or even 90%.

5.5.191 Lethal fraction flame contour


Lethal fraction for present in flame contour
This is the fraction of mortality is used within the dimensions of a flame contour.

Leave it to 100% unless you have good reasons to change it.

5.5.192 Lethal fraction flashfire


Lethal fraction for present in flash fire
This is the fraction of mortality that is used within the flame envelop of a flash fire.

Leave it to 1 unless you have good reasons to change it.

5.5.193 Lethal fraction Pressure inside damage


Lethal fraction Pressure inside damage

All areas with pressure between "total destruction" and "inside damage" levels, will be treated
with this corresponding inside damage lethality level. The lethality fraction will only be applied
in societal risk calculations, on inside population.

5.5.194 Lethal fraction pressure total destruction zone


Lethal fraction pressure total destruction zone

Defines the lethality within the total destruction pressure level zone. By default 100% (fraction
1)

5.5.195 Liberated energy

Liberated energy
This is the overall estimated energy that will be liberated and lead to the rupture of the

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vessel, the blast wave and the fragments propagation.

This field is only required when there are no known methods to estimate the liberated
energy from the contents and conditions of the vessel. This is the case of pressure vessel
burst and runaway reaction for non-ideal gases or vapours, and for pressurised liquefied
gases for which no expansion work data is available.

To obtain the value of the liberated energy in such cases, experimental data (from
pressure-enthalpy diagrams or tables to obtain the difference in internal energy between
the chemical at vessel and ambient conditions) is required or reconduct the calculations to
the ideal gas case.

5.5.196 Limit of momentum region

Limit of momentum region


This is the limit of the region in space in which the models equations and empirically fitted
constants are valid.

5.5.197 Liquid mass fraction in cloud


Liquid mass fraction in cloud

The liquid mass fraction in cloud presents the amount the mass in the cloud which is still in
liquid condition, e.g. dragged along with the flashing vapour as droplets.

Because the model uses the AMINAL approximation to calculate the total mass in the cloud,
this total "airborne mass" (mass remaining in air: not rained out) is partly vapour (the
adiabatic flash amount) and partly liquid droplets.

When using a dispersion model based on the calculated total mass, and there is liquid in the
cloud, it is suggested to use a "Dense dispersion model".

AMINAL- Belgium, "Nieuwe richtlijn voor het berekenen van flash en spray" doc.97/001,
which is original source of table 4.8 of Purple Book CPR 18E

5.5.198 Mass flow rate at time t

Mass flow rate at time t


This is the calculated mass flow rate exiting the piping at time t after start release.

If the vessel is emptied at time empty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should be
calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty . A warning will be generated to inform the
user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.

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5.5.199 Mass flow rate of the source

Mass flow rate of the source


Mass flow rate (only for the desired chemical) at the source.

This field is not required for instantaneous releases.

5.5.200 Mass of empty vessel

Mass of empty vessel


This is the mass of the vessel when completely empty.

5.5.201 Mass of fragment

Mass of fragment
This is the mass of the considered fragment when studying projectile effects. If the
fragment distribution selected was "2 equal pieces" or "Many equal pieces", just one type of
fragment (shape, area and mass) is possible so just one mass, initial speed and maximum
range will be shown in the output, but if "2 unequal pieces" or "2 caps and body" was
selected, two types of fragments are possible and two masses, initial speeds and
maximum ranges will be shown in the output.

5.5.202 Mass of heaviest piece

Mass of heaviest piece


This is the mass of the heaviest piece in pieces with different masses are formed after the
rupture of the vessel.

This field is required only when fragment distribution is "2 unequal pieces" or "3 unequal
pieces".

5.5.203 Mass of liquid in vessel at time t

Mass of liquid in vessel at time t


This is the mass of chemical in liquid phase remaining in the vessel at the time of study t.

If the vessel is emptied at time tmax before time t (tmax < t) all the outputs that should be
calculated at t will have been calculated at tmax. A warning will be generated to inform the
user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tmax at which this occurred.

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5.5.204 Mass of vapour in vessel at time t

Mass of vapour in vessel at time t


This is the mass of chemical in vapour phase remaining in the vessel at the time of study t.

If the vessel is emptied at time tmax before time t (tmax < t) all the outputs that should be
calculated at t will have been calculated at tmax. A warning will be generated to inform the
user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tmax at which this occurred.

5.5.205 Maximum area of explosive cloud

Maximum area of explosive cloud


When a cloud disperses in the wind direction, and is an instantaneous or semi continuous
release, the size of the cloud will vary depending upon the time.

This area is the horizontal (in the X-Y plane and at the height of release) section of the
cloud defined by the LEL value.

This maximum area of the cloud can only be calculated if the area of the cloud vs. time
graph has been generated.

At the height of the release we find, for neutral gases, the maximum section of the cloud.

In case of continuous release, as theres no dependency upon time, the value presented is
the steady area of the cloud (also limited by the LEL).

5.5.206 Maximum Averaging Time


Maximum Averaging Time

The maximum value for averaging concentrations calculations, default 3600 sec

5.5.207 Maximum concentration at (Yd, Zd)

Maximum concentration at (Yd, Zd)


Maximum possible concentration in time at any location along the Xd (wind) direction,
defined by coordinates Yd and Zd. In case of continuous release, as theres no dependency
upon time, the value presented is the maximum concentration in the same direction.

This maximum concentration can only be calculated if the maximum concentration vs.
down-wind distance graph has been generated, in case of semi-continuous or

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instantaneous releases.

5.5.208 Maximum distance of source to LEL

Maximum distance of source to LEL


This is the axial distance between the jets release point (after possible expansion from
release pressure) and the point where the LEL concentration is reached.

In some cases, due to the specificities of the scenario, the LEL concentration is not
reached in the momentum region, and then the result.

5.5.209 Maximum distance to threshold


Maximum distance to threshold concentration

The maximum distance on which the threshold concentration, which has been supplied in the
input, can be found.

5.5.210 Maximum evaluation time


Maximum evaluation time

The maximum time to evaluate the behaviour of the model. Time dependent graphs will be
presented until this value

5.5.211 Maximum explosive mass

Maximum explosive mass


Maximum explosive mass in time for a given release. This maximum explosive mass can
only be calculated if the explosive mass vs. time graph has been generated. This result is
not calculated in case of continuous release.

5.5.212 Maximum mass flow rate

Maximum mass flow rate


Maximum mass flow rate in the time area from t = 0 sec upon the time thats given in the
result box Based upon time.

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5.5.213 Maximum plume height

Maximum plume height


This is the maximum height the center-line of the plume, either positively or negatively
buoyant, will reach according to the models.

5.5.214 Maximum range of fragment

Maximum range of fragment


This is the maximum possible distance from the center of the vessel to the position where
the considered fragment lands due to the rupture of the vessel.

5.5.215 Maximum release duration

Maximum release duration


The maximum time that a release of hazardous material can occur. This is used in outflow
models to limit the time of an outflow. By default the models will calculate the time until the
vessel is empty, however, the outflow can be limited to a specific time, to take into account
the existence of a "blocking system"

5.5.216 Maximum temperature difference


Maximum temperature difference

(evaporation from water surface)

The maximum temperature difference between the liquid in the pool and the water.

When a volatile liquid is released, its temperature usually decreases. This causes the water
to also cool down.

In the model for heat transfer that is implemented in EFFECTS, there is no heat transfer by
convection (i.e. the water behaves like a rigid body).

This might lead to an under prediction of the heat transfer from the water to the pool, which
would lead to a under estimation of the temperature of the pool.

Therefore, the user may choose to set a maximum temperature difference between the pool
and the water.

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Notes:

- The difference value is defined as the water temperature minus the pool temperature
(positive value implies that the pool has a lower temperature than the water)

- The maximum temperature difference does not affect pools that are warming up

- The maximum temperature difference does not affect pools that are boiling

- The maximum temperature difference must be greater than or equal to zero (in other words:
if the pool temperature is higher than that of the water, the heat transfer is not affected by it)

- Set the max. temperature difference to a very high value (e.g. 500 K) if you don't want it to
affect the outcome of the calculations

5.5.217 Meteorological Data

Meteorological Data
Combo Box where the user chooses the type of scale he will use to input the stability of the
scenario. This can be Pasquill or Monin-Obukhov.

If Pasquill is chosen, the software will ask for the Pasquill Stability Class.
If Monin-Obukhov is chosen, the software will ask for the Inverse Monin-Obukhov Length,
Mixing Height, and Standard Deviations of Turbulent Velocities

5.5.218 Minimum Averaging Time


Minimum Averaging Time

The minimum value for averaging concentrations calculations, default 20 sec

5.5.219 Mixing Height

Mixing Height
Height of the turbulent boundary layer (above the ground). This layer is also called mixing
layer, and it is the atmospheres first layer, where turbulence occurs and so does
dispersion. Only is input when the user chooses to input meteorological data as Monin-
Obukhov type.

When the meteorological data is "Pasquill", the dispersion model estimates the mixing
height (from stability class, latitude and roughness length class) and it appears as an
output, with "used" at the end.

In the case the meteorological data is "Pasquill" this field is disabled.

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5.5.220 Model valid until time

Model valid until time

Wilson Model (gas outflow through pipelines)


The Wilson model aims at predicting the mass flow rate as a function of time depending on
the initial conditions. The model assumes a compressor to a trip when the decompression
wave in the pipelines reaches the compressor station at the other pipe end. When the
pressure wave traveling upstream reaches the opposite side of the pipeline the Wilson
model is not valid any more

Morrow model (liquefied gas through pipelines)


The Morrow model is valid until the distance to the interface is larger then half-length of the
pipeline. The time that is need for these model calculations is shown in this output box.
After this the calculations continues with the predicted mass flow rate of the last time step
until all mass is removed.

5.5.221 n value

n value
This is the value of the expansion factor defined in Poissons law.

PV^n = constant

The value for n depends upon the expansion type (which can be chosen in the Expansion
type field),
- Adiabatic expansion: n = k, the so-called Poisson coefficient (k = CP / CV)
- Isothermal expansion: n = 1
- Polytropic expansion: 1 < n < k

This field is only required when a Polytropic expansion has been selected, as for the other
two types of expansion the values are predefined (1 for isothermal and the Poisson
coefficient, which is obtained from the database, for the adiabatic).

5.5.222 Net mass rained out


Net mass rained out

The amount of liquid that ends up in a liquid pool. Note that other still liquid material may
remain "airborne" defined by the liquid mass fraction in cloud This is also referred to as "spray
fraction"

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5.5.223 Number of pieces

Number of pieces
This is the number of pieces into which the vessel is ruptured.

This field is only required when the fragment distribution is set to "Many equal pieces".

5.5.224 Offset between release location and LEL

Offset between release location and LEL


This is the distance between the release location and the first down-wind point (at 0
crosswind distance) where the concentration equals the LEL. In other words, it's the lowest
down-wind distance value of the contour with LEL as threshold value. This distance is
computed at the height of the source for neutral gases, and at ground level for dense
gases.

Time t is the time of study entered by the user, time tmem is the time at which the
explosive mass is maximal, and time tmac is the time at which the area of the LEL-contour
is maximal.

In case of a continuous release, this is the steady state offset of the LEL-contour at the
height mentioned above.

5.5.225 Offset between release point and cloud centre

Offset between release point and cloud center


This is the distance between the point where the release of the chemical started (from a
vessel, a broken pipe, an evaporating pool) and the position of the center mass of the
confined explosive cloud.

See figure in Distance from release (Xd) for more information.

5.5.226 Outcome Phenomena


Outcome / Phenomena

In combined models, the calculation engine will automatically search for all possible
phenomena that might occur for the specific loss of containment event. Depending on the
type of chemical, toxic or flammable, multiple outcomes will be evaluated.

In some occasions, it is not rally useful to include "All"possible phenomena, for instance
because an ammonia pool can hardly be set on fire. In these occasions, the outcome can be
limited to only toxic, or any other specific phenomena.

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5.5.227 Outdoor concentration

Outdoor concentration
This is the concentration in the vicinity of the considered room. We can take into account
the concentration due to the toxic cloud which would be found in the center of the room (as
if there was no sheltering); it is not necessary to average the concentrations as if there was
no sheltering) in all the points of the room.

5.5.228 Outflow angle in XZ plane (0=horizontal ; 90=vertical)

Outflow angle in XZ plane (0=horizontal ; 90=vertical)


Orientation angle q (in the XZ plane) of the outflow

5.5.229 Outflow time


Outflow time of the continuous release

Presents the resulting outflow time for the continuous release: the initial mass of material
divided by the outflow rate
5.5.230 Output message level
Output message level

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The amount of detail in log reports are influences by this setting. A higher value gives more
detailed and larger logfiles.

5.5.231 Overpressure above liquid

Overpressure above liquid


This is the pressure above the liquid phase minus the ambient pressure (ambient pressure
= standard atmospheric pressure = 1.01325 bar = 101325 Pa).

If the overpressure is equal to 0 bar then the pressure above the liquid is the same as the
ambient pressure.

5.5.232 Pasquill stability class

Pasquill stability class


Combo Box with Pasquill stability classes, sometimes referred as A..F:
A very unstable
B unstable
C slightly unstable
D neutral
E stable
F very stable

When the selected model is the neutral or dense gas dispersion and the type of
meteorological data is "Monin-Obukhov" this field is disabled.
This stability class is strongly dependent of the wind speed, time of day and cloud cover
and can be selected using the table below:

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5.5.233 Peak dynamic pressure at Xd

Peak dynamic pressure at Xd


This is the maximum peak dynamic pressure that will be reached in the point of study Xd
for a given vapour cloud explosion scenario.

5.5.234 Peak overpressure at Xd

Peak overpressure at Xd
This is the maximum overpressure that will be reached in the point of study Xd for a given
vapour cloud explosion or vessel rupture scenario.

5.5.235 Peak pressure inside damage


Peak pressure inside damage

This pressure defines the minimum pressure level for inside damage. All areas with pressure
between "total destruction" and "inside damage" levels, will be treated with the corresponding
inside damage lethality level. The lethality fraction will only be applied in indoor calculations, on
inside population. The pressure level will also be used as a threshold level for pressure
contours presented by TNT or Multi Energy models.

5.5.236 Percentage of mortality


Percentage of mortality

The program can draw contours for specific consequence (lethality) levels.

Enter the treshold value for the lethality contour to be presented.

5.5.237 Perform maximum concentration vs. distance graph

Perform maximum concentration vs. distance graph

Checkbox where the user can choose whether he wants EFFECTS to generate the
Maximum concentration vs. Down-wind distance at (Yd, Zd) graph or not, as it is one of the
time-consuming steps of the model and not all the studies require its calculation.

5.5.238 Perform time-dependent explosive graphs

Perform time-dependent explosive graphs


Checkbox where the user can choose whether he wants EFFECTS to generate the

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Explosive mass vs. Time and Area of the cloud above LEL at release level vs. Time
graphs or not, as they are the most time-consuming step of the model (specially if the
release is semi-continuous!) and not all the studies require its calculation.

5.5.239 Perform toxic contour plot

Perform toxic contour plot


Checkbox where the user can choose whether he wants EFFECTS to generate the Toxic
Contour Plot at Zd graph and the response fraction grid (for population mortality
calculations) or not, as it is one of the time-consuming steps of the model and not all the
studies require its calculation.

5.5.240 Perform toxic indoors calculation


Perform toxic indoors calculation

The toxic exposure inside can be calculated based on the actual concentration time profile
and ventilation rate. This calculation is invoked by selecting "Yes" in this setting. The
calculation is performed inside the Dispersion Toxic dose models which will also present a
Inside lethality grid (expert parameter).

The inside lethality is strongly influenced by passage time of the cloud, and ventilation ratio.

5.5.241 Pipe contraction coefficient

Pipe contraction coefficient


This contraction coefficient for pipe endings edges is used in outflow calculations. Default is
0.82

5.5.242 Pipeline diameter

Pipeline diameter
This is the inside diameter of the pipeline connected to the vessel. The different models
assume the diameter is constant for the whole pipeline.

5.5.243 Pipeline length

Pipeline length
This is the length of the pipeline connected to the vessel through which the gas, liquid or
liquefied gas is released.
The length is measured from the vessel up to the guillotine fracture or the hole in the
pipeline.

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For the long pipeline models (gas and two phase, e.g Wilson and Morrow model), full
blocking of the pipeline length is assumed, and the release is based on the contents of the
pipe itself (as if no vessel attached).
In the combined models and universal release model the "long pipeline" models will be
activated if the length exceeds 1 km.

Gas outflow from long pipeline: Wilson model

In case of a full bore ruptured of a long pipeline according to the Wilson Model, the
parameter Lp (length pipeline) could be understood as the distance up to the guillotine
break. So, if the full-bore rupture happens 2 km after the initial point, in case of a 10 km
pipeline the total outflow is the outflow from a 2 km pipeline and an 8 km pipeline. The
outflow from both pipeline parts must be calculated with the Wilson model.

In case (1) Lp is 2 km and in case (2) Lp is 8 km.

For non-stationary gas outflow through small holes the Wies model (page 2.73 YB) is
valid.
This model regards the pipeline as a volume; in this case the pipeline length (lp) is the total
length of the pipeline. For this type of outflow the model will calculate the total mass outflow
at once.

Two phase outflow: Morrow Model


In case of a double sided outflow, the release rate needs to be combined from the release

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rates of two pipe parts. The outflow from both pipeline parts must be calculated with the
Morrow model.

5.5.244 Pipeline roughness

Pipeline roughness
This is the relative wall roughness of the pipeline walls(ratio between the wall roughness
and the pipe diameter). For the wall roughness the values in the table below (as proposed
in table 2.2 in the 3rd edition of the Yellow Book) can be used.

Material Pipeline roughness


Bronze, lead, glass 0.015 mm
Commercial steel, wrought iron 0.045 mm
Cast iron 0.250 mm

5.5.245 Pipeline volume

Pipeline volume

This is the total pipe volume calculated by the pipeline diameter and the pipeline length.

5.5.246 Pool surface

Pool surface
This is the surface area of the liquid pool that is formed.

Dense gas dispersion model


This field is required only for evaporating pool release and is called "Fixed pool surface"
determining the initial source area.

Pool fire model


The field "maxium pool surface" is only required for the circular pool, and is used as the
maximum limiting size for the "fixed feed" situation. For Confined (instantaneous) situation,
this area determines the initial area of the pool fire (even if the mass is very low: there is no
minimum pool thickness applied for confined pool fires)
Other pool shapes like the rectangular pool, rim fire and polygonal pool will derive their
surface from provided dimensions.

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Pool evaporation model


The maximum pool surface area will only be used if the pool is bunded (Type of pool
growth on land "spreading in bunds" or pool on water of type "confined water")
5.5.247 Pool temperature
Pool temperature

The actual temperature of liquid at the moment it is released into the pool.

Note that this temperature can never exceed the boiling temperature at atmospheric
pressure. For atmospheric storage systems, the actual storing temperature can be used, for
pressurized situation, the temperature should be the temperature after flashing or cooling
down to atmospheric boiling point.

5.5.248 Pool thickness

Pool thickness

Thickness of the pool on the ground

5.5.249 Poolfire calculation type

Poolfire calculation type


The pool fire model supports two methods of calculating the pool fire.

By default, the Yellow Book is used (Paragraph 6.5.4).

Alternatively, the "Two-Zone poolfire" method can be used, which distinguishes a clear and a
sooty part of the flame, which have dedicated SEP (Surface Emissive Power) values
provided for a more extensive list of Chemicals.

The two-zone pool fire model is described in the document "Pool fire model
improvements.pdf" , which is installed in the installation folder, and is officially published in:

'Rew, P.J. & Hulbert, W.G. (1997) Modelling of Thermal radiation from external hydrocarbon
poolfires, in Trans IChemE, Vol.75 part B,' and

'Rew, P.J. & Hulbert, W.G. (1996), Development of a pool fire thermal radiation model, HSE
Contract research report no. 96 '

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5.5.250 Population polygon


Population polygon

The area where population is present can be defined by using the edit button, this will start the
inline editor allowing to define a shape.

5.5.251 Positive phase duration at Xd

Positive phase duration at Xd


This is the duration of the positive phase of the blast wave calculated for a given vapour
cloud explosion scenario at the point of study Xd.

5.5.252 Predefined concentration

Predefined concentration
Combo Box containing some threshold concentration usual values for contour plots and
dynamic concentration grid calculation:
- User defined
- Lower Flammability Limit
- Upper Flammability Limit
- 1% lethality concentration (for toxics)
- 50% lethality (in case of toxics)
- IDLH, AEGL, ERPG if supplied in the chemical database

The first option is called "user defined". In that case the user can enter any value. You can
then input it in the next input field called "Threshold Concentration".
In all other cases the "Threshold Concentration" input field will be disabled and filled with
the corresponding database value.

If the selected chemical also has specific Threshold Concentrations listed in the database,
these typical values (like ERPG's, IDLH or AEGL values) will be listed in this combo box
as well.

For the % lethality concentration selection, the corresponding threshold concentration will
be based on the current selected exposure time.

5.5.253 Predefined wind direction

Predefined wind direction


Combo Box containing the 16 directions of the wind rose.

The first option is user defined, in case the user desires another value. You can input it in
"Wind comes from (North = 0 degrees)".

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The default is 270 degrees, implying wind FROM west implying that all contours will be
directed from left to right, pointing TO the east

5.5.254 Pressure at pipe exit at time t

Pressure at pipe exit at time t


This is the pressure at the pipe exit at time t after start release. Choking phenomenon is
usual and in this cases the pressure at pipe exit is greater than the ambient pressure.

If the vessel is emptied at time tempty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should
be calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty. A warning will be generated to inform
the user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.

5.5.255 Pressure at time T


Temperature at time T

If the user has specified "calculate at specified time" this filed will present the pressure inside
the vessel at this time.

5.5.256 Pressure damage based on


Pressure damage based on

The translation to damage by overpressure can be defined by

1. Using two pressure levels: total destruction and inside (glas) fragments.

2. Using a probit based on Peak pressure: Pr = A + B * ln(PeakPressure^N)

3. Using a probit based on exposed pressure impulse Pr = A + B * ln(Pressure Impulse^N)

In case 3, the pressure impulse is calculated as (0.5 * peakpressure * positive phase


duration). Method 3 cannot be applied when using the TNT overpressure calculation, because
that method does not provide a positive phase duration answer; one needs to use the Multi
Energy method for method 3.

5.5.257 Pressure damage Probits


When using probits, the lethality will be using a probit function based on Peak pressure: Pr =
A + B * ln(PeakPressure^N) or as a probit based on exposed pressure impulse Pr = A + B
* ln(Pressure Impulse^N)

The parameters define the values a, b and N, based on units Pascal and seconds.

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See Heat radiation probits for translation into lethality.

5.5.258 Pressure impulse at Xd

Pressure impulse at Xd
This is the pressure impulse calculated for a given vapour cloud explosion or vessel
rupture scenario at the point of study Xd.

5.5.259 Pressure in vessel at time t

Pressure in vessel at time t


This is the pressure present in the vapour part of the vessel at the time of study t.

If the vessel is emptied at time tmax before time t (tmax < t) all the outputs that should be
calculated at t will have been calculated at tmax. A warning will be generated to inform the
user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tmax at which this occurred.

5.5.260 Pressure inside vessel determination


Pressure inside vessel determination

The model can work with the two possibilities:Use vapour pressure will use the equilibrium
pressure for the supplied temperature.

The choice "Use actual pressure" will use a user specified pressure, which may be higher
than vapour pressure.

During outflow, this overpressure will quickly disappear due to mass release.

5.5.261 Pressure level total destruction


Pressure level total destruction

This value is used to define the peak pressure level at which inside and outside lethality
is assumed to be 100% (total destruction zone). Default value is 300 mBar (0.3 Bar)

5.5.262 Pressure level total destruction_2


Pressure level total destruction

This value is used to define the peak pressure level at which inside and outside lethality
is assumed to be 100% (total destruction zone). Default value is 300 mBar (0.3 Bar)

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5.5.263 Probabilty FlashAndExplosion

Probabilty FlashAndExplosion
In a gas cloud explosion, the flashfire may be accompanied by overpressure effects. This
parameter determines the probability that flash AND explosion occur. Default is 0.4

5.5.264 Projection Systems


Projection System

Projected coordinate systems, commonly used in GIS (Geographical Information Systems)


viewers, are coordinate systems designed to represent the spherical earth as a flat surface,
such as a printed map or a computer screen. 2D and 3D Cartesian coordinate systems
provide the mechanism for describing the geographic location and shape of features using x
and y values. Locations of geographic objects are defined relative to the origin, using the
notation (x,y), where x refers to the distance along the horizontal axis, and y refers to the
distance along the vertical axis. The origin is defined as (0,0).

The projection system contains a strict definition in what units, with which reference system
and which visualization angle (where is North) coordinates should be displayed.

The standard system to be used has to be defined in "Presentation settings": this offers a
huge list of standardized projection systems. The default choice here is WGS 84 Pseudo
Mercator. This choice defines the coordinate system to be used for all presentations in the
map GIS view.

It is important to emphasis that the choice of the project projection system should be the
first thing to decide when starting to work with a project. Changing the project system
after equipment locations and receiving objects have been placed will change the values
associated with the coordinate, and might lead to rotated or even disappearing maps and
locations: because there not "in view" in the changed system.

(For example, a back ground map in Dutch Amersfoort RD system will no longer show up when the
project is changed to Singapore SVY21 and will be rotated when displayed in Swedish National Grid
system).

5.5.265 Protection factor clothing


Protection factor clothing

The protection factor applied for clothing, used for societal risk calculations on heat radiation.
A probit calculation will be applied on heat radiation, leading to a lethality. This lethality is
corrected with this factor to obtain the damage in case of societal (protected) calculations

5.5.266 Radial distance from release (Yd)

Radial distance from release (Yd)


This is the perpendicular distance from the release point to the point of study.
The different points and distances are shown in the figure below, to make the
understanding easier.

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5.5.267 Radius at maximum plume rise

Radius at maximum plume rise


This is the radius of the plume at the down-wind position where the maximum height of the
plume is reached.

This output is only calculated for positively buoyant plumes.

5.5.268 Radius of flashfire


Radius of flashfire

If the total mass in the cloud will get ignited, it is assumed that it will create a flashfire/fireball
in the shape of half a sphere, which has a specific ground footprint.

The radius of this footprint is calculated on the base of mixing the total airborn mass to Upper
Explosion Limit.

5.5.269 Radius of the fireball

Radius of the fireball


The radius from the fireball is calculated from the quantity of combustible material which is
released in case of a complete failure of the tank, according to: rfb=3.24 * m0.325.

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5.5.270 Rainout mass


Rainout mass

This field present the amount of mass that will rainout and form a pool.

Basically the initial mass in the vessel is divided into a part that will remain in the cloud
(airborn), and a part that will rainout.

The rainout mass can be input for a pool evaporation model.

5.5.271 Related lethal fraction for peak overpressure


Related lethal fraction for peak overpressure
This is the fraction of mortality that Riskcurves uses when someone is present under the
provided setpoint 0.1 bar (10000 pascal) peak overpressure contour.

Do not make it zero or larger than 100%.

5.5.272 Related lethal fraction for peak overpressure_2


Related lethal fraction for peak overpressure
This is the fraction of mortality that is used when someone is present under the provided
indoor threshold set point (by default 0.1 bar=10000 pascal) peak overpressure contour.

Do not make it zero or larger than 100%.

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5.5.273 Release location


Release location

A release location consists of an X and Y coordinate value, in the units as defined in the
current coordinate projection system.

Note that changing the projection system will also change the value of the X and Y numbers,
because these are internally stored in a fixed Mercator map unit system and translated into
the current projection system when displayed on screen.

5.5.274 Reporting time cloud


Reporting time cloud

The flammable cloud dispersion model will report the flammable contour at a specific time,
which need to be set by the user. the model can search for the maximum area of the cloud,
the maximum explosive mass in the cloud, or report at specific user defined time.

At this specific "reporting" time step, the area, explosive mass, length and width of the cloud
will be reported

5.5.275 Representative density


Representative density

This is the density belonging to the chosen time period (the period in which the first 20% or
second 20% of the mass is released)

The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.

5.5.276 Representative outflow duration


Representative outflow duration

Depending on whether the calculation is performed until a vessel is empty or until a user
specified time,

the representative outflow duration is

- the mass in the vessel divided by the 'representative outflow rate' or

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- the total mass outflow until the user specified time divided by the ' representative outflow
rate'

The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.

5.5.277 Representative pool radius


Representative pool radius

This is the pool radius belonging to the chosen time period (the period in which the first 20%
or second 20% of the mass is released)

The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.

5.5.278 Representative pressure


Representative pressure

This is the pressure belonging to the chosen time period (the period in which the first 20% or
second 20% of the mass is released)

The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.

5.5.279 Representative release rate


Representative release rate

This is the average release rate in the chosen time period (the period in which the first 20% or
second 20% of the mass is released).

The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.

5.5.280 Representative temperature


Representative temperature

This is the temperature belonging to the chosen time period (the period in which the first 20%
or second 20% of the mass is released)

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The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.

5.5.281 Representative vapour mass fraction


Representative vapour mass fraction

This is the vapour mass fraction belonging to the chosen time period (the period in which the
first 20% or second 20% of the mass is released)

The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.

5.5.282 Resolution of the time consuming graphs

Resolution of the time consuming graphs / Resolution of surface discretization


This is the number of points for a graphs or resolution of the resulting grids can be
manipulated with this setting. Note that increasing this value will also increase calculation
time and may strongly increase the resulting project file size.

We have four possible resolutions, expressed as percentage of the maximum possible


resolution.
- Low: 10%
- Medium: 30%
- High: 100%
- Very high: 130%

5.5.283 Response fraction indoors

Response fraction indoors


This is the response fraction (fraction of mortality) which is found inside the room due to
the considered release. We assume the concentration is constant in the whole volume of
the room

5.5.284 Response fraction outdoors

Response fraction outdoors


This is the response fraction (fraction of mortality) which would be found in the position of
the room if there was no sheltering due to the considered release.

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5.5.285 Room volume

Room volume
This is the volume in which the persons would look for shelter in case of a toxic accident.
This volume is supposed to be all situated at the down-wind position x, y, z.

5.5.286 Roughness length description

Roughness length description


Define classes for the roughness of the terrain, z0:

See table 44 from the Purple Book:

Number Roughness Description


length

1 0.0002 m Open water, at least 5 km

2 0.005 m Mud flats, snow, no vegetation

3 0.03 m Open flat terrain, grass, few isolated objects

4 0.1 m Low crops, occasional large obstacles, x/h > 20

5 0.25 m High crops, scattered large objects, 15 < x/h < 20

6 0.5 m Parkland, bushes, numerous obstacles, x/h < 15

7 1.0 m Regular large obstacles coverage (suburb, forest)

8 3.0 m City centre with high- and low rising buildings

x = typical upwind obstacle distance, h = the height of the corresponding major obstacles

The previous Effects versions used a different classification:

1. Flat land: z0 = 0.03 m (e.g. polder land with few trees).


2. Arable land: z0 = 0.1 m (e.g. airfield, agricultural land, polder with many trees).
3. Cultivated land: z0 = 0.3 m (e.g. glass-house land, open area with much overgrowth,
scattered houses).
4. Habitated land: z0 = 1.0 m (e.g. area with densely located but low buildings, wooded area,
industrial area with obstacles which are not too high).
5. Cities and towns: z0 = 3.0 m (e.g. a big city with high buildings, industrial area with high
obstacles).

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The roughness length is an artificial length-scale appearing in relations describing the wind
speed over a surface, and which characterizes the roughness of the surface. Note that the
sizes of the elements causing the roughness can be more than ten times larger than the
roughness length

5.5.287 Shape Definition


Shape definition

The drawing of a specific shape or polygon, is activated by pressing the button in the input
field list. Make sure the "Map" tab is activated and a background map is available, otherwise
definition of a shape makes no sense. Shapes are used to define congestion areas,
vulnerable areas, or pool shapes.

Potentially zoom in on the area of interest (use mouse wheel for zooming, right mouse drag
for moving the map), lock the scale to avoid re-dimensioning of the background map, and
select the edit button. This will change the shape of the cursor into a hand with a cross
illustrating the "draw mode".

Start pinpointing coordinates on the map, thus defining the shape (polygon) of the habituated
area. Each point which is clicked on the map will leave a small red dot. Adding more dots will
create additional points creating a more complicated polygon.

Points can be added, moved or deleted:

Add a point: Simply click on the map and a point will be added next to the current active (red)
point.

Move a point: Select a point and drag the point with the <left mouse button>.

Delete a point: select any point of the polygon, which will give the active point a red color.
Clicking it again will remove this point.

Select the blue <edit> button again to finish the shape definition.

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5.5.288 Solar Radiation Flux


Solar Radiation Flux

The pool evaporation model uses an overall heat balance for the pool to calculate the
evaporation. This heat balance also includes solar heat radiation.

Users can choose whether to use a fixed value for solar heat radiation, or calculate the actual
value based on day, month, cloud cover and latitude of the location.

The solar heat radiation flux is the actual value for the heat flux as used in pool evaporation
calculations.

Note that values may range from negative (at night: earth radiates towards sky) to 1500
Watts/m 2 depending on the latitude, cloud coverage, and day of the year.

When the actual value has to be calculated, several other input values are required: earth
location latitude value, cloud cover and day/month of the year.

5.5.289 Sound speed in liquid phase

Sound speed in liquid phase


Speed of sound in the pressure liquefied gas. The speed of sound of chemicals that are
commonly stored as a pressure liquefied gas like propane, ammonia and chlorine, is not
easily found in literature as is its pressure dependency. Most liquids have a speed of sound
between 900 m/s and 1500 m/s, and on average about 1250 m/s. Liquid propane and
propane are both one of the exceptions. An increase of pressure will increase the speed of
sound. In most cases a pressure increase of about 100 bar will increase the speed of
sound in liquids about 5-15%. The speed of sound in liquid phase of a few chemicals at a
temperature of 288.15 K [NTIS] are presented in the table:

Chemical Pv(T) (105 N/m2) us,L (m/s)


propane .31 .9
propene .91 .1
ammonia .27
butane .82 .6

Pv(T) = saturation pressure [N/m 2]


us,L = speed of sound in liquid [m/s]

5.5.290 Speed of released chemical at the source

Speed of released chemical at the source


This is the linear speed of the considered chemical at the stack exit (plume rise model) or
jets release point (turbulent free jet model, chamberlain model).

The speed of the chemical depends upon the amount released, the quality of the release

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(possible presence of liquid) and the density of the release. The model is only valid for pure
chemicals, but a mixture can be taken into account in the calculation of the initial speed.

5.5.291 Spray calculation type

Spray calculation type


The spray release model supports three methods of calculating the spray fraction and rain-
out.

By default, the Yellow Book is used (paragraph 2.5.3.7) which uses relations of Kukkonen et
al.

Alternatively, the Aminal Rule can be used, which applies a straightforward rule of thumb to
calculate the spray fraction ('AMINAL - Richtlijn voor het berekenen van Flash en Spray,
1997').

This Aminal rule defines that the spray fraction is the minimum of [1 minus adiabatic flash, 4
times adiabatic flash], and rainout fraction is calculated as: 1 minus (Flash fraction plus spray
fraction).

A third option is the use of a "Statistical Spray Release" method. This method utilizes a
statistical sampling method to create a droplet size distributions, and is described in the
document "Statistical Spray Release Model.pdf " which is installed within the installation
folder.

C. Hulsbosh-Dam, An Approach to Carbon Dioxide Particle Distribution in Accidental


Releases,in Chemical Enigineering Transactions Vol.26, 2012,

ISBN 978-88-95608-17-4; ISSN 1974-9791

5.5.292 Standard deviation of turbulent velocity in vertical and horizontal direction

Standard deviation of turbulent velocity in vertical and horizontal direction


Standard deviations of velocities in cross-wind and vertical direction used in the estimation
of the dispersion parameters. Preferably, use should be made of measured values.

When the meteorological data is "Pasquill", EFFECTS estimates the standard deviations of
turbulent velocities (from pasquill stability class and roughness length class) and it appears
as an output, with "used" at the end.

In the case the meteorological data is "Pasquill" this field is disabled.

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5.5.293 Standard pipe roughness

StandardPipeRoughness
The roughness of a pipe is used in pipe flow pressure drop calculations, default 4.5E-5 m

5.5.294 Start of exposure (after moment of release)

Start of exposure (after moment of release)


This is the time at which we consider that humans will begin to be exposed to a toxic cloud.
Normally, a default value of 0s is used, which means that the exposure is supposed to
begin immediately after the release.

Example:
A person could be sheltering inside a house when a release takes place. When this person
comes out of the house after say 1 hour (start of exposure = 3600s), the release might be
ended and concentrations outside (which this model calculates) might have decreased to
safe levels. On the other hand, if a person leaves the house after 10 minutes (start of
exposure = 600s), dangerous concentrations might still be present and higher toxic values
reached. In this way one can model the sheltering behaviour of people.

Graph 1

5.5.295 Step size for contour searching

Step size for contour searching

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In case the program doesnt find a contour (it will generate a warning to say it to the user, in
which the step size used will be shown) but the user is sure the plot exists, he can input a
different value (than the one found in the warning) of the step size to try to find the contour.

The "step size", in meters, is the step size we want the program to use in the first step of a
contour plot calculation: finding the contour. If no value is entered, EFFECTS estimates the
size of the step itself for finding the contour (in case it exists for the given release case and
threshold value). If for example the threshold value is higher than the maximum
concentration, the contour doesnt exist).

A contour is normally not found if it has a length lower than 5m, and the internal stepsize
estimation hasnt found the appropriate value.

If we can estimate the position of the center of the contour, even if it is a 5 cm long contour,
the stepsize to be used is the following:

We add one centimeter to the half-length of the source to ensure we are not making
calculations within the source, where the Gaussian distribution is not valid. It also means
that clouds completely located within the first centimeter will never be found, but this is not
a real limitation for practical use.

5.5.296 Subsoil / water temperature


Subsoil / water temperature

The temperature of the subsoil or water that you want to use for pool evaporation calculations.
In general, the higher the temperature the larger the evaporation rate and consequences.

5.5.297 Subsoil Roughness


Subsoil Roughness

In practical situations the pool will spread until it reaches some minimum thickness which is
related to the surface roughness. As typical values a lower limit of 5 millimeters for smooth
surfaces, and for very rough surfaces several centimeters are used.

The classification provided here is based on table 3.1 from the Yellow Book:

Subsoil Average roughness


flat sandy soil, concrete, tiles, 0.005 m
plant-yard

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relatively flat sandy soil, gravel 0.010 m

rough sandy soil, arable land, 0.020 m


meadows
very rough overgrown sandy soil 0.025 m
with holes

5.5.298 Subsoil type

Subsoil type
Is used for pool spreading and determines the minimum layer for a pool thickness.

5.5.299 Surface area of a cylinder


Surface area of a cylinder

This is the surface area of the frustum, when it is approximated to a cylinder, as tried to
indicate in the figure.

5.5.300 Surface area of frustum


Surface area of frustum

The total surface area of the frustum, as indicated in the figure

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5.5.301 Surface emissive power (actual)


Surface emissive power (actual)

The actual surface emissive power of the frustum, which equals the maximum surface
emissive power when there is no soot formation.

For the calculation of the actual surface emissive power ( ) of a radiating body the
following equation is evaluated: , in which is the fraction of the
surface of the flame which is covered by soot. For the value as found by Hgglund
[Hgglund, B. and Persson, L.E. The heat radiation from petroleum fires, FOA Rapport
C201126-D6 (July 1976)] of .

5.5.302 Surface emissive power (max)


Surface emissive power (max)

The maximum surface emissive power of the frustum

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The value of the maximum surface emissive power from a flame without soot is calculated
by: , in which = fraction of the generated heat which is
radiated from the flame surface, = burning rate [ ], = heat of combustion [ ], =
average height of the flame [m], =pool diameter [m].

5.5.303 Take protective effects of clothing into account?

Take protective effects of clothing into account?

Combo Box with the option, whether yes or no, to take protective clothing into account

5.5.304 Temperature after release

Temperature after release


The definition of this field depends upon the type of release.

In an evaporating pool, the temperature of release is, by definition, the boiling temperature
at ambient pressure of the chemical (so it depends upon the chemical and the database;
the user cannot modify it, the field is disabled).

In vertical and horizontal jets, this is the temperature of the material after the expansion into
atmospheric pressure.

In instantaneous releases, this is the temperature of the material at the instant it is


released.

5.5.305 Temperature at pipe exit at time t

Temperature at pipe exit at time t


This is the temperature at the pipeline exit at time t after start release.

If the vessel is emptied at time tempty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should
be calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty. A warning will be generated to inform
the user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.

5.5.306 Temperature at Sd

Temperature at Sd
This is the temperature in the jet at the point of study Sd. No specific calculation can be

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done for the variation of the temperature in the jet for different radial distances Yd, so we
have to assume that the same temperature will be reached in all the points at the same
axial distance (Sd).

5.5.307 Temperature at time T


Temperature at time T

If the user has specified "calculate at specified time" this filed will present the temperature
inside the vessel at this time.

5.5.308 Temperature in vessel at time t

Temperature in vessel at time t


This is the temperature in the vessel at the time of study t.

If the vessel is emptied at time tmax before time t (tmax < t) all the outputs that should be
calculated at t will have been calculated at tmax. A warning will be generated to inform the
user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tmax at which this occurred.

5.5.309 Temperature of the pool

Temperature of the pool

The input parameter describes the initial temperature of the liquid in the pool.
In the pool evaporation model the pool temperature will gradually decrease, because
evaporation heat is being taken from the material.
This effect is presented as a graph of temperature versus time

5.5.310 Temperature vapour/liquid


Temperature vapour/liquid

This field will present the corresponding boiling temperature of the chemical at atmospheric
conditions. It is assumed that the vessel contents will cool down because of the flashing
behaviour.

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5.5.311 Threshold concentration

Threshold concentration
Concentration value the program will use (if "User defined" was selected in "Predefined
concentration" input box) to generate the concentration contour plot.
In other words, this is the value of the concentration to be displayed in the contour plot.
Apart from a contour "at time T" (concentration model) the outer contour of the specified
threshold can be displayed, illustrating how far a specific threshold can reach. This
threshold will default be LFL in flammable cloud models, but can be user defined and
includes choices like IDLH, but also ERPG or AEGL concentrations. The available choices
will be read from the chemical database. If the values are not provided, the user can
manually ADD a concentration threshold to the substance. (See chemical database).
A word of warning is required here when using these threshold for toxic materials, because
although AEGL and ERPG are concentration thresholds, they are associated to a specific
exposure duration!
For instantaneous and short duration semi-continuous releases, the maximum distance to
concentrations may be very large, but has no meaning if exposure duration is not taken into
account.

For exposure duration associated concentration thresholds (such as ERPG1,2,3, AEGL


1,2 3), it is strongly advised to use the Mortality/Probit calculator from the EFFECTS tools
menu to obtain the associated dose for the corresponding exposure duration. Then use
the toxic dose model to derive the contour for the calculated associated dose.

5.5.312 Threshold fraction of mortality F

Threshold fraction of mortality F


If the value in "Calculate toxic contour by" (see previous input box) is "Fraction of mortality",
then the program will enable this input box and generate the toxic contour plot by using this
value.

In other words, this is the value of fraction of mortality (with a certain accuracy, see
"Contour plot accuracy") in all the points of the contour.

5.5.313 Threshold heat radiation level

Threshold heat radiation level


This is the heat radiation level for which we want to calculate the distance from the center
mass position where it is reached (output value). It is also the threshold value to be used
when calculating the output contour plot of all the positions where this heat radiation level is
reached.

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5.5.314 Threshold overpressure

Threshold overpressure
This is the overpressure value (in mBar) for which we want to calculate the distance from
the center mass position where it is reached (output value). It is also the threshold value to
be used when calculating the output contour plot of all the positions where this
overpressure is reached.

5.5.315 Threshold toxic dose D

Threshold toxic dose D


If the value in "Calculate toxic contour by" (see previous input box) is "Dose", then the
program will enable this input box and generate the toxic contour plot by using this value.

In other words, this is the value of toxic dose (with a certain accuracy, see "Contour plot
accuracy") in all the points of the contour.

5.5.316 Tilt angle central axis flare (ab)


Tilt angle central axis flare (ab)

As indicated in the figure, ab is the tilt angle of the central axis of the flare.

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5.5.317 Time needed to empty pipe (extrapolated)

Time needed to empty pipe (extrapolated)


Time needed to empty the whole pipeline. By comparing the initial mass content in the
pipeline with the mass removed it may appear that the pipeline is not empty after the last
time step. If so, it is recommended to continue the predicted mass flow rate of the last time
step until all remaining mass will be removed (extrapolated mass flow rate).

5.5.318 Time needed to empty vessel

Time needed to empty vessel


This is the time during which there is outflow from the vessel, so the time the vessel needs
to reach an internal pressure of 101325 N/m 2.

5.5.319 Time pool has evaporated


Time pool has totally evaporated

Presents the time at which the pool has totally been evaporated. If the user has supplied a
maximum time which is smaller than the required evaporation time, or the pool stops
evaporating due to low temperature, this filed may be empty.

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5.5.320 Time pool spreading ends


Time pool spreading ends

Presents the time at which the pool has the maximum dimensions. This might be the time at
which the pool reaches the wall of the bund, or the time the pool start shrinking again.
5.5.321 Time t after cloud arrival

Time t after cloud arrival


This is the time after the arrival of the cloud at the position where the room is found at
which we want to make the calculations of dose and concentration indoors

5.5.322 Time t after start release

Time t after start release


Time at which the time dependent output parameters (such as concentration, explosive
mass of the cloud, pressure and temperature inside the vessel, etc.) are calculated

For the outflow models, in case the time after release is larger than the emptying time of
the vessel/pipe, the outflow parameters shown by the program will have been calculated at
the emptying time of the vessel/pipe.

For the dispersion models, the contours of interest will be drawn at this time t. When using
Dynamic Concentration Presentation the contour can be illustrated using a color grid at any
time.

5.5.323 Total combustion energy

Total combustion energy


This is the overall energy released due to the combustion of the given amount of chemical.

5.5.324 Total mass in cloud


Total mass in cloud

Basically the initial mass in the vessel is divided into a part that will remain in the cloud
(airborn), and a part that will rainout.

The total mass in the cloud describes the total airborn mass, and can be used as input for a
dispersion model.

The airborn mass may be partly vapour and partly liquid. If there is liquid in the cloud, it is
suggested to use a "Dense dispersion model".

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5.5.325 Total mass in explosive range

Total mass in explosive range


This is the amount of flammable chemical which is found in concentrations between the
LEL (Lower Explosive Limit) and the UEL (Upper Explosive Limit) limits in the vapour cloud.

The program will take into account the fraction of this mass which is confined (See
Fraction of flammable cloud confined).

5.5.326 Total mass in vessel

Total mass in vessel

Total (initial) mass of the chemical in the vessel at time = 0 sec

5.5.327 Total mass involved in BLEVE

Total mass involved in BLEVE

An important result of the BLEVE fireball models is the calculation of the amount of mass
which is involved in the BLEVE phenomenon.

Depending on the temperature of the pressurized liquefied gas, the Flash fraction will change.
For LNG for instance storage temperatures below -150 dgC will imply that only a small
fraction of the PLG will actually be superheated if the vessel will break. Based on empirical
information, the mass that will actually take part of the rapid evaporation is taken as 3 times
the (adiabatic) flash of the storage vessel.

5.5.328 Total mass of decomposable chemical in vessel

Total mass of decomposable chemical in vessel


This is the mass of chemical that is considered to suffer the decomposition that will lead to
the rupture of the vessel. Note that not all the chemicals stored can decompose and, for
the chemical considered to decompose, not all his mass will decompose at the same time
(so not all the mass will supply energy to the blast wave and to the fragments
propagation).

This field is only required for "Decomposition of materials" as cause of the vessels failure.

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5.5.329 Total mass released

Total mass released


Total amount of mass (only for the desired chemical) released.

In dispersion models, this field is required only for instantaneous releases.

5.5.330 Total mass released at time t

Total mass released at time t


This is the total amount of mass released through the piping from the start of the outflow
until the time of study t.

If the vessel is emptied at time tempty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should
be calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty. A warning will be generated to inform
the user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.

The total mass released is calculated by integrating the mass flow rate vs time data at
each time step.

where

Mtotal = total mass flow [kg]


fm = mass flow rate [kg/s]
te = ending time model calculation [s]

5.5.331 Toxic dose indoors

Toxic dose indoors


This is the toxic dose which is found inside the room due to the considered release. We
assume the concentration is constant in the whole volume of the room.

5.5.332 Toxic dose outdoors

Toxic dose outdoors


This is the toxic dose which would be found in the position of the room if there was no
sheltering due to the considered release.

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5.5.333 Toxic Exposure Duration

Toxic Exposure duration


The exposure duration is used to calculate a toxic dose, integrating the concentration
(modified including the probit constants) as function of time over that period. (see inclined
lines in graph at start of exposure).
The duration of exposure is needed as the dose increases the longer one is exposed to an
effect. Normally, a default value of 30min (1800s) is used.

If in a given location the effect duration is lower than the exposure duration (the passage
time of the toxic cloud is around 60s and the user chose an exposure duration of 1800s)
EFFECTS will internally rearrange the exposure duration so there is not a loss of accuracy
in the result of the integration process.

Example
The exposure duration is a powerful tool to model evacuation or sheltering. Say, a release
happens and people can find shelter after 10 minutes. If we assume that people can find
100% shelter inside houses we can model this as follows:
1. Set the start of exposure to zero
2. Set the exposure duration to the time that people can find shelter (600s)
In this case the model starts the exposure at t = zero, which means that people close to
the source of release will suffer from the effects but people further away from the release
will be exposed to lower concentrations because the cloud has not reached them yet. All
these are taken into account by the model.

NOTE 1: Different methods of applying this exposure duration are possible, see "exposure
duration based on" parameter.

NOTE 2: By using the option "perform toxic indoors calculation" the dispersion model can
take into account that people inside houses will still be exposed to (lower) concentrations.

NOTE 3: For heat radiation, a dedicated "heat exposure duration" parameter is used, which
is default 20 seconds, because the human reaction to intensive heat radiation is much
quicker.
5.5.334 Toxic Exposure Duration based on

Toxic Exposure Duration based on


Toxic exposure can be limited with the use of the toxic exposure duration parameter.

However different approaches of applying a exposure limit can be applied.

1. Based on time until sheltering (starting to count at t=start exposure after release, default 0
sec)

2. Based on cloud exposure (starting at arrival time of the cloud)

3. Based on limiting the release duration itself (no real limit for exposure)

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By default, it is assumed that the exposure is limited due to the fact that people will seek for
shelter (approach 1). In this case the maximum time exposure time will be limited to this Time
Exposure duration, starting at t start exposure (default 0 sec after release).

However since a (semi continuous) toxic cloud will need a specific time to arrive at a
location Xd, the arrival time of the cloud can be different for every location Xd. Since the
reaction of people (seeking shelter) may be triggered by the smell of the toxic, a more
conservative approach would be to start counting the exposure when the cloud arrives.
(This is also the method as referred to in the Purple book.)
To take this effect into account it is also possible to select the "time limit for cloud
exposure" method.

The last method is by limiting the release duration. This approach is used by the Dutch
BEVI guidelines. Note that if a continuous release is selected (Neutral gas dispersion
model), the release itself will be forced into a "semi continuous"mode, and the release
duration will be maximized to the entered value for "exposure duration"
5.5.335 Toxic Inhalation Heigth

Toxic Inhalation Heigth


This values is used as default height to calculate the toxic dose.

5.5.336 Transition time to vapour flow

Transition time to vapour flow


The transition time is the time that a two-phase outflow in the vessel changes into a vapour

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outflow.

After a sudden depressurization, the liquid in the vessel will flash, and due to the presence
of vapour bubbles in the tank the liquid will expand. If the liquid level reaches the hole in the
vessel or pipeline, a two-phase outflow in the shape of a churn or a bubbly flow will occur.
During the blow-down the amount of liquid may decrease so that the swelled liquid level will
drop and pure vapour outflow may become apparent. This is the point of time the two-
phase flow changes into a vapour outflow. Next time step the model switches to the gas
release model. The calculation restarts with the vessel conditions at the moment of the
switch.

5.5.337 Turbulent Free Jet Pressure

TurbulentFreeJetPressure
Value that determines the pressure above which a turbulent free jet will occur, the default is
200000 Pa (2 bar).

This value is used to determine which model should be called first when calculating a gas
release when it is connected to a dispersion program. Above 2 bar, the turbulent free jet
model is called while below 2 bar, the gas release model (no jet) is called.

5.5.338 Type of calculation

Type of calculation

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Combo box where the user can choose the time range of the time-dependent graphs and
the time at which the time-dependent outputs will be calculated:

1. Calculate until specified time: model runs until a specific time given in the
input box Maximum Release Duration. Calculation ends at this provided maximum
duration

2. Calculation until device is empty: model runs until the pressure at the exit
of the pipeline or vessel is equal to the atmospheric pressure (Ambient pressure =
101325 N/m 2). At that moment the vessel is considered to be empty, since no more
chemical will be released.

5.5.339 Type of confinement

Type of confinement
Combo Box where the two different types of circular pool fires are shown (confined and
unconfined)

A circular pool can be confined or unconfined.


In case of confined, the pool surface has to be given as input.
In case of unconfined, the maximum size which the pool can reach is calculated according
to the following input variables :
- hole diameter of the release point
- diameter of the (exit) hole at the release point
- discharge coefficient
- flow coefficient (C0) through a circular hole
- initial height of the liquid above release point
- cross-sectional area of the tank
- pool thickness

5.5.340 Type of flow inside the vessel

Type of flow inside the vessel


In the combo box type of flow inside the vessel there are two possible choices.

Churn flow
Increasing flow velocity breaks down the slug flow bubbles and leads to an unstable
regime. Flow is of an oscillatory nature.

Bubbly flow
Liquid paths are continuous and contain a dispersion of bubbles. The gas or vapour

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bubbles are of approximate uniform size. Void fractions range from the extreme case of a
single isolated bubble in a large container to the quasi continuum flow of foam. Different
bubble shapes and trajectories can occur as a result of the interactions between forces
due to surface tension, viscosity, inertia and buoyancy.

The expected regime of two-phase flow has to be selected: bubbly flow or churn flow.
Unfortunately, no general applicable criterion exists, which could support this choice. Two
governing parameters are liquid dynamic viscosity and surface tension. The DIERS
literature suggests that when the dynamic viscosity is below 0.1 Pa.s the flow regime will
be churn-turbulent; otherwise it will be bubbly. However, for liquids with viscosity well below
0.1 Pa.s, it is known that reduction of the surface tension leads to foamy bubble flow. The
value at which this phenomenon occurs depends on the particular liquid.
The assumption that gives the most conservative result is bubble flow, as this yields the
largest amount of discharged pressurised liquefied gas.

5.5.341 Type of flow of the jet

Type of flow of the jet

Combo Box where the two different type of flow of the jet are shown:
- Choked flow
- Unchoked flow.

Choked flow is also denoted as critical flow, the speed of the outflow of the gas is so fast
(becomes critical in the sense that it reaches the speed of sound) due to the outflow
conditions compared to the ambient conditions, that the outflow becomes choked.
Unchoked flow is when the speed of the outflow is lower than the critical speed.

5.5.342 Type of pool

Type of pool
As of version 10, the pool fire model in EFFECTS is capable of calculation heat radiation for
various shapes of the pool fire:

1. Circular poolfires (Default)

2. Rimfire (a ring shaped fire), requires the definition of a (outer) diameter, and width of the
rim. (This means that inner diameter = Outer diameter - [2 x width])

3. Rectangular (described by a width and length and rotation angle)

4. Polygonal shape, this allows the user to actually draw the shape on a map, for example the
use the boundaries of a tank pit to describe the shape of the pool.

Note that these choice only apply for "confined releases" because a spreading pool based on
a specific release rate will always need to be circular !

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RISKCURVES currently only support circular pool fires because other shapes would require
recalculation for every wind-direction.

The heat radiation from these arbitrary shaped pool fires are calculated using a discretised
radiation method, which is described in the "poolfire model improvements" document in the
installation directory.

5.5.343 Type of release

Type of release
Combo Box where the type of release can be chosen.

The releases with which outflow models can deal are:

-
Release through a hole in a vessel.

-
Release from vessel trough (a hole in) pipe.

The releases the pool-evaporation model can deal with are:


- Instantaneous (when the whole content is released in a very short time)
- Continuous (for continuous releases like leaks)
Note that in both situations, the spreading behaviour of the pool is modelled, resulting
in a time varying pool area.

The releases with which the neutral gas dispersion model can deal are:
- Instantaneous (when the whole content is released in a very short time)
- Semi-continuous (for finite time releases)
- Continuous (for continuous releases like stacks, chimneys etc)

The releases with which the dense gas dispersion model can deal are:
- Evaporating pool
- Horizontal jet release

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- Vertical jet release


- Instantaneous

The evaporating pool and horizontal and vertical jet releases are semi-continuous releases;
no continuous release can be calculated for a dense gas release.

WARNING!
Semi-continuous releases require complex calculations and can be very time consuming,
especially when the explosive calculations are performed.

5.5.344 Type of spreading


Type of Spreading

Possible choices are spreading or spreading in bunds. Note that in either case, the model will
calculate a pool radius versus time. However, in case of a bunded pool, the maximum area is
limited.

5.5.345 Type of subsoil


Type of subsoil

The type of subsoil on which the pool is spreading. Several different classes are supplied
here where the type determines the heat transfer rate.

5.5.346 Type of TNT equivalency

Type of TNT equivalency


Combo Box where the user can make the choice between the two different types of TNT

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equivalency:
- Based upon energy
- Based upon mass

The TNT equivalency is used to obtain the mass of TNT to be considered for the explosion
equivalent to the mass of chemical in the considered scenario.
In the "based upon mass" equivalency, TNT mass is obtained directly through the product
of the chemical mass by the equivalency factor. In the "based upon energy" equivalency,
TNT mass is obtained through the product of the chemical mass by the equivalency factor
and the ratio of combustion energies of TNT and the considered chemical.

5.5.347 Typical obstacle diameter


Typical obstacle diameter

This parameter defines, when using the GAME correlations, the typical diameter of obstacles
inside a congested area.

5.5.348 Use 50% LEL

Use 50% LEL


For dispersion explosive models, the flammable contour is usually based on LEL
concentration for the chemical.

However, due to the stochastic nature of the weather conditions, there is a degree of
uncertainty in the exact location of this concentration contour. To have a more conservative
approach, some users prefer to work with 50% LEL concentrations for flammability.

By selecting this "Yes" to this "Use 50% LEL concentration" the contours presented will be
based on this reduced concentration. When using the GAME method to derive the overlap of
the flammable cloud with a congestion area, this overlap calculation will also be based on
50% LEL concentration. Note that the explosive MASS within the cloud will always be based
on "mass above 100% LEL" which can be limited to "Mass between LEL and UEL
concentration"

5.5.349 Use dynamic concentration


Use dynamic concentration

This choice allows to extend the reporting of the dispersion model with presentation of a time
dependent concentration grid.

If this choice is set to "yes", the map view will include a dynamic concentration presentation

5.5.350 Use Game overpressure


Use game Overpressure

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Instead of defining a blast strength by its "Multi Energy" curve number, the blast strength can
be calculated using the GAME correlations.

If these correlations are used, the maximum overpressure will be calculated using typical
congestion parameters like volume blockage ratio and average diameter of the obstacles
according to the formulations below:

In which:

VBR = Volume Blockage Ratio [fraction]

Lp = Flame path length [m]

Davg = Average diameter of the obstacles [m]

Sl = Laminar Burning velocity of the chemical [m/s] which is a substance dependent property
taken from the chemical database

Especially in case a congestion area has been defined, this method allows to calculate
overpressure based on overlap with a flammable cloud.

5.5.351 Use mass between LEL and UEL


Use mass between LEL and UEL

This parameter is used in the calculation of explosive mass. By default, it is assumed that all
mass above LEL (lower Explosion Limit)concentration will take part of the ignition. However,
although mixing with air is heavily enforced during ignition, one may argue that mass above
UEL (Upper Explosion Limit) will not ignite, because it is too rich.

To deal with this situation, users can define to either use all mass above LEL, or just the
mass between LEL and UEL

5.5.352 Use which representative step


Use which representative step

Use this parameter to choose which 'period' of the five time periods that are calculated is
considered to be representative.

Background

The Purple Book, paragraph 4.6 describes the coupling between outflow models and vapour
cloud dispersion models.

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According tho the description there, EFFECTS approximates the time-varying source term
into five discrete time segments with constant outflow conditions by dividing the total mass
released evenly over these 5 time segments.This purple book steps graph of the rate is
always available in the list of graphs

Then the following rules can be followed:


For flammable substances, the outflow conditions are equal to the conditions of the first
(highest) segment,
having approximated the time-varying release with five time segments.
For toxic substances, the outflow conditions are equal to the conditions of the second
(second highest) segment,
having approximated the time-varying release with five time segments.

Therefore, it is recommended (and the default behaviour of the program) to choose "First ..."
for flammable substances, and "Second ..." for toxic substances.

5.5.353 Used sauter mean diameter


Used sauter mean diameter

Is a typical diameter in the range of droplet diameters occurring in the spray of a two phase
outflow.

5.5.354 User comment


User comment

This free text field can be used to add a description, for instance about the origin of the
information provided in the input fields.

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5.5.355 Ventilation rate at daytime

Ventilation rate at daytime


The neutral gas dispersion model is able to calculate toxic effects inside, based on an
ventilation rate. For this purpose an exact ventilation rate should be specified, default is 1.0
per hour.

5.5.356 Ventilation rate at nighttime

Ventilation rate at nighttime


See daytime description, except this one is used for nightime calculations.

5.5.357 Ventilation ratio

Ventilation ratio
This is the frequency with which the whole air volume of a room gets renewed.

5.5.358 Vessel emptying duration


Vessel emptying duration

This parameter is used in so called G2 Loss Of Containment scenario's. By default, these


models will calculate the size of a hole corresponding to an outflow within 10 minutes.
However, the required emptying duration can be modified by altering this parameter.

5.5.359 Vessel Type

Vessel Type
Combo Box where the three different vessel types for which calculations can be performed
are shown. Those are:
- Vertical cylinder
- Horizontal cylinder
- Sphere

The shape of the vessel is important in for the outflow models to calculate the evolution of
the liquid height, and so the hydrostatic pressure, inside the vessel.

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5.5.360 Vessel Volume

Vessel Volume
This is the total volume of the considered vessel.

5.5.361 View factor

View factor
The estimation of the heat radiation surrounding a fire requires the characterization of the
flame geometry. The computation of the heat intensity at a give location around a fire
requires the computation of the geometric view factor. The current EFFECTS
implementation contains the calculation algorithms for several flame geometries as
described by Mudan in reference [Mudan, K.S., Geometric View Factors for Thermal
Radiation Hazard Assessment, Fire Safety Journal 12, 1987, pg. 89-96].

BLEVE model
The view factor at a distance X from the fire ball is calculated as: Fview = (RadiusFireBall/
X)2

Chamberlain model
For the specific case of a jet fire the expressions for a tilted cylinder are implemented.

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5.5.362 Volume Blockage Ratio


Volume Blockage Ratio

This parameter defines, when using the GAME correlations, the amount of free space that is
available for expansion of a burning cloud. The higher the value, the less possibility for
expansion, leading to more severe overpressure effects.

The parameter should be estimated based on the total occupied space by obstacles (fraction
of volume), which can be equipment, support construction, pipes, vessels, but also trees,
bushes or cars on a car park.

The value is dimensionless and is defined as a fraction or percentage.

5.5.363 Volumetric fraction of chemical at release point

Volumetric fraction of chemical at release point


This is the concentration (in volumetric fraction) of the chemical at the release point (stack
exit). Air or other inert chemicals can dilute the release.

5.5.364 Water temperature

Water temperature
The average yearly temperature of the water that you want to use for pool evaporation on
water calculations. In general, the higher the temperature the larger the evaporation rate and
consequences.

5.5.365 Weight ratio of CO2/chemical

Weight ratio of CO2/chemical


Weight ratio of product (burned) gas CO2/chemical.

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5.5.366 Weight ratio of H2O/chemical

Weight ratio of H2O/chemical


Weight ratio of product (burned) gas H2O/chemical.

5.5.367 Weight ratio of HCl/chemical

Weight ratio of HCl/chemical


Weight ratio of product (burned) gas HCl/chemical.

5.5.368 Weight ratio of NO2/chemical

Weight ratio of NO2/chemical


Weight ratio of product (burned) gas NO2/chemical.

5.5.369 Weight ratio of SO2/chemical

Weight ratio of SO2/chemical


Weight ratio of product (burned) gas SO2/chemical.

5.5.370 Width of cloud (between LEL)

Width of cloud (between LEL)

This is the width of a horizontal section of the cloud, whose limits are defined by the LEL
value. In other words, it's the width of the contour in this section with LEL as threshold
value. For neutral gases, this horizontal section is taken at the height of the source. For
dense gases, it is taken at ground level.

Time t is the time of study entered by the user, time tmem is the time at which the
explosive mass is maximal, and time tmac is the time at which the area of the LEL-contour
is maximal.

In case of a continuous release, this is the steady state length of the cloud between LEL at
the height mentioned above.

5.5.371 Width of frustum base (W1)

Width of frustum base (W1)


As indicated in the figure, W1 is the width of the frustum base.

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5.5.372 Width of frustum tip (W2)

Width of frustum tip (W2)


As indicated in the figure, W2 is the width of the frustum tip.

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5.5.373 Width of toxic contour

Width of toxic contour


This is the maximum distance in crosswind direction between two points of the toxic
contour plot.

5.5.374 Wind comes from (North = 0 degrees)

Wind comes from (North = 0 degrees)


Sense and direction where the wind blows from (if User defined was selected in
"Predefined wind direction"). It uses compass based angles where North = 0 degrees or
West = 270 degrees. Selection of a wind-angle from the combobox will display the
associated angle.

5.5.375 Wind direction for damage


Wind direction for damage

Whenever a congestion area or vulnerable area has been defined, the damage to this area
can be calculated for a worst case situation, but also for one specific direction of the wind.

In case of "worst case situation "the calculation will search for the maximum overlap of a
damage effect with the defined area.

The other possible choice is "defined by model" which implies that only the wind direction as
defined in the damage model will be used to evaluate damage.

5.5.376 Wind speed at 10m height

Wind speed at 10m height


Average wind speed at a reference height of 10m above ground level.

5.5.377 X or Z offset dispersion


X and Z offset dispersion

If a dispersion is proceeded by a turbulent jet expansion phase, the actual start of passive
dispersion may be shifted in X location and if the jet was pointing upwards, even at an
elevated level. This can be dealt with by defining an X or Z offset for the start of dispersion.

5.5.378 X, Y - coordinates of release

X, Y - coordinates of release
GIS coordinates of the release point. Only visible for products with GIS capabilities. Not to

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be confused with Xd and Yd which are the point of study (where the effect is calculated).

5.5.379 Z - coordinate (height) of release

Z - coordinate (height) of release

Gas dispersion models

Coordinate of the release in vertical direction. 0 (zero) height is at ground level. Not to be
confused with Zd, which is the height of the point of study (where the effect is calculated).

Plume model

This is the height above ground level of the stack where the gas is released. The reference
0 height is the ground level.

5.6 Risk parameters


Enter topic text here.

5.6.1 Base frequency


Base frequency

The failure frequency for the scenario, expressed per year. Although this parameter has a
default, it is highly recommended to modify this according to the actual failure frequency.

5.6.2 Bleve fraction


Bleve fraction:

The probability of a Bleve event taken place. A BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour
Explosion) can only occur with a instantaneous release and may be one of the immediate
ignition events (other immediate ignition event can be a poolfire). This parameter only has
influence in case of multiple phenomena and is only applied in case of instantaneous two
phase releases of flammable materials.

5.6.3 Calculate Heat Risk by


Calculate heat risk by:

When using "Consequence risk contours" option of a calculation set, specific thresholds for
heat radiation, overpressure and toxicity will have to be set.

For a heat consequence risk, it can be chosen to use either a Heat radiation intensity level
(kW/m2 unit) or a heat dose unit (kW/m2^1.33*time)

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5.6.4 Calculate Toxic Risk by


Calculate toxic risk by:

When using "Consequence risk contours" option of a calculation set, specific thresholds for
heat radiation, overpressure and toxicity will have to be set.

For a toxicity risk, it can be chosen to use either a concentration level (kg/m3, ppm, vol%, mg/
m3 ect) or a toxic dose unit (consentration^n*time) . Note that when using a dose, the
chemcial must be selected because the n probit will be fixed.

5.6.5 Cell size for risk grids

Cell size for risk grid


This parameter defines the grid resolution of the contour map. Note that contours will be
calculated based on a Iso Risk grid. By default a cell size of 10 meter is used. However if
the range of the affected area becomes very big (routes of many kilometers, toxic events
with effect areas upon many kilometers) this might lead to enormous grid (> 10^6 cells). In
those situations a re-sampling will be performed avoiding large memory usage.
As of version 9.012, this parameter is also used to influence the accuracy of the societal
risk calculation:
After the consequence calculation, the resulting lethality footprint is translated into a
"societal risk response" grid to be able to superimpose (a wind direction and stability class
dependent) lethality on the population. The cell resolution of these grids can be adjusted
with the provided value.
However, for large effect phenomena, this would lead to huge memory loads, because all
weather classes and every potential wind-direction has its own list of or "affected" cells.
For that reason, scenario's that would use more than 100*100 cells as its "response
footprint" will be forced to use an increased cell size. Furthermore, scenarios with shorter
maximum effect distances (less than 100 mtr) will always be calculated at the standard
accuracy of 10 mtr cells.
The usage of this relatively small "response grid" size ensures that even when using a
population distribution in much bigger cells (50 mtr), an accurate estimation of the number
of lethal victims is achieved. (e.g. in case of a partial overlap of the lethal footprint with the
population grid)
Note that population grids, used for calculation of societal risk, have a cell size that
deviates from the risk grid cell size.

5.6.6 Cell size for population grids

Cell size for population grids


This parameter defines the grid resolution for the population grid which is being used to
calculate the societal risk.

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It also determines the resolution of any societal risk maps, if these are calculated.
For standard situations, a cell size of 50 mtr is advised, however, if small scale
phenomena are involved (like jet fire of 20 mtr) a smaller cell size could be chosen to
improve the accuracy of the calculation. However, using smaller cells will increase
calculation time and size of the resulting project files.

5.6.7 Chance delayed ignition


Chance delayed ignition

The probability that a delayed ignition (flash fire and/or vapour cloud explosion) event takes
place.

Note that the sum of Direct ignition and Delayed ignition does NOT have to be one:

1 - (Fraction direct + Fraction delayed) = fraction No Ignition

5.6.8 Chance direct ignition


Chance direct ignition

The probability that a direct (immediate) ignition event takes place. This parameter is only
relevant for scenario's in which multiple phenomena (poolfire and vapour cloud explosion,
jetfire and vapour cloud explosion) are possible (combined models). In case of damage
definitions, the calculation is restricted to a single event: an explosion damage definition
already assumes that the explosion takes place.

By default a value of 0.8 is used, but this value can be altered, because it is dependent of the
type chemical (flammability) or release rate.

Some guidelines, like the Dutch BEVI, give a table where this value is dependent of the
release rate and flammability classification of the substance.

For stationary equipment:

And for transport equipment:

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5.6.9 Create Consequence Risk Contours


Create Consequence Risk Contours

This is an option to include the calculation of consequence risk contours. Note that IF this
option is activated, the consequence risk levels need to be set in the corresponding
calculation setting.

5.6.10 Create Societal Risk Maps


Create Societal Risk Maps

If societal risk calculation is included in the project, there is an option to include the calculation
of societal risk maps, which is a visualization method to illustrate the level and range of the
societal risk.

5.6.11 Cumulate transport routes


Cumulate transport routes in FN curve

By default, the transport societal risk will be expressed per km of route length and wil have an
FN graph per transport route, and not per calculation set.

However, to have an idea of the contribution of transport scenarios on the societal risk, it can
be useful to include the transport scenarios in the standard FN curve. This can be done by
selecting YES in this input field.

5.6.12 Fraction frequency in daytime hours


Fraction frequency in daytime hours

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The base frequency is the total frequency for daytime and nighttime. Users can define
activities to take place only at daytime hours (fraction daytime = 100%), only at nighttime
(fraction = 0%) or any other value. The value entered here will determine which part of the
total frequency is used for daytime situation.

This input box is only available if "frequency equally distributed day/night" has a "No" as input.

5.6.13 Fraction with explosion phenomena


Fraction with explosion phenomena

Given the occurrence of a vapour cloud explosion (which is regarded upon as a delayed
ignition), this event may have overpressure effects. This parameter describes which fraction
of those events will have overpressure effects.

Note different from other QRA tools, TNO assumes that all delayed ignitions will have a flash
fire phenomenon, and only a part of these flash fires will ALSO have overpressure effects.
This implies that given a delayed ignition, a flammable cloud drifting away from the source, a
delayed flash fire will always occur, and in a fraction of the situations this includes
overpressure phenomena.

5.6.14 Frequency Correction Factor


Frequency correction factor

A scenario frequency might deviate from "standardized" situations, due to risk reduction
measures, dedicated situation etc.

By using a correction factor instead of adjusting the base frequency, adjustments can be
made more traceable. This value is used for Stationary Equipment, for transport equipment
the correction factor can be modified per location, leading to a third column in the route
definition.

5.6.15 Frequency equally distributed day/night


Frequency equally distributed day/night:

By default, it is assumed that a frequency of an scenario is equally distributed over nighttime


and daytime; that is according to its meteorological occurrence. However, some activities
(loading unloading etc) may have a certain preference for either day or nighttime. By changing
this choice to "No", users can define user specified (so deviating from meteorological
distribution) value.

5.6.16 Inter accident distance FN


Inter accident distance FN

This factor is used to influence the inter-accident distance during societal risk calculations.

Consider the following example:

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The above example illustrates a road transport. RISKCURVES will generate accident points
and calculate the size of the gas clouds.

In the left situation the accident points are separated too far and therefore the calculation
misses an important object because the clouds can not reach it. In the right in situation, more
accident points are generated and the object is hit.

The factor defaults to 50 mtr which means that possible accident points are located 50 meter
from each other. When using scenario's with maximum effect distances much lower than 50
mtrs, is is advised to narrow the inter accident distance.

5.6.17 Inter accident distance FX


Inter accident distance FX

When calculating individual risk contours along a transport route, contours can become
caterpillar shaped instead of a smooth line. This is caused when the inter-accident distance
used to calculate individual risk is too large. The factor defaults to 50 mtr which means that
possible accident points are located 50 meter from each other. When using scenario's with
effect distances lower than 50 mtrs, is is advised to narrow the inter accident distance.

5.6.18 Is temporary (population)


Is temporary (population)

When defining population by using population polygons, there is a possibility to define specific
areas as "temporary" population, allowing to associate a specific "utilisation fraction" to this
area.

These kind of temporary population is intended to be used for specific non-permanent


population like pop festivals, camping sites, sport-matches etc, were large number of people
might occur during a short period of time. Note that these population concentrations might
affects societal risk, because of the large amount of people involved.

Apart from the "utilisation fraction" , the part of the time that this population is present, for both
day and night, these temporary polygons can also have a dedicated "inside fraction" because
this population might not be protected by buildings, but be "unprotected outside".

Note: THIS IS NOT TO BE USED FOR STANDARD SITUATIONS. When using many (say
more than 10) temporary polygons that can be exposed to the same event (when they are
close to one another, so within the potential lethality footprint of a single event), this procedure
can get time consuming because all potential combinations of these areas need to be
evaluated!!. As an example, just for three temporary population areas we need to evaluate: A
and B and C exposed, A and B exposed, A and C exposed, B and C exposed, only A, only B ,
only C, and no area (just base population) exposed, where every combination has its own
probability of occurrence!

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5.6.19 Level interpolation method


Level interpolation method

A damage definition is usually defined by providing specific threshold lethality footprints. By


default, an interpolation will be used within these contours, to mimic a continuous decreasing
lethality footprint, similar as derived from an effect model calculation.

However, in some occasions, it might be required to use fixed level within every contour. This
can be done by using a "blockmode" distribution in a damage definition, resulting in fixed
levels within the defined contours (see illustration below).

5.6.20 Lowest significant frequency

Lowest significant frequency


This is the lowest frequency that will be taken into consideration. If the frequency of an
event is lower than this value, it will be neglected.

5.6.21 Maximum accident points per route


Maximum number of accident points

To limit an enormous number of calculations when RISKCURVES want to generate accident


points for long routes but small consequences, this is the maximum number of accident
points it will use

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5.6.22 Maximum toxic exposure duration


Maximum toxic exposure duration

By default the toxic exposure is limited to 1800 seconds (half an hour). If the actual passage
time of a cloud is shorter, the dose is calculated based on the actual concentration time
profile

5.6.23 Meteorological Daytime Fraction


Meteorological Daytime Fraction

Depending on the latitude of the country where the QRA is to be performed, the daytime/
nighttime ratio will differ.

Since the QRA calculation will be based on the usage of daytime / nighttime populations, and
distinguished daytime/nighttime weather conditions, one needs to define the fraction of
daytime situation.

Note: In previous RISKCURVES versions this was incorporated within the meteorological
definition, the current meteorological distribution is based on 100% daytime total and 100%
nighttime total.

5.6.24 Number subsectors FN


Number subsectors FN calculation

By default RISKCURVES defines 12 wind directions. This implies however that


RISKCURVES can miss some population concentrations when it performs societal risk
calculations.

This is shown in the left drawing. Two clouds for a 30 wind direction (=360/12) miss the
important object resulting in risk underestimation. In the right drawing, 15 wind direction (=24
wind directions) were chosen resulting in a hit of the object.

The value in this field defaults to 9 (108 wind directions).

5.6.25 Number subsectors FX


Number of subsectors for FX calculation

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About the same explanation as for FN calculations holds for individual risk calculations. Again,
a hypothetical person could be missed, especially where he stands far away from the cloud
and the cloud tip is relatively small when compared with the sector circumference. In general
when this factor is increased (values up to 20 are useful) the individual risk will decrease as
Riskcurves will calculate more accurately the risk caused by overlap/underlap of a cloud
compared with the sector width. The drawback is more calculation duration. More narrow
clouds have a smaller risk than wide clouds which is obvious as wide clouds can overlap to
adjacent sectors. This methodology takes it all into account at a value of 20.

5.6.26 Perform societal risk calculation


Perform Societal Risk Calculation

A risk calculation can be performed while skipping the societal risk calculation, which will be
much faster. This will also eliminate the need to enter population data.

5.6.27 Probabilty FlashAndExplosion

Probabilty FlashAndExplosion
In a gas cloud explosion, the flashfire may be accompanied by overpressure effects. This
parameter determines the probability that flash AND explosion occur. Default is 0.4

5.6.28 Utilisation fraction


Utilisation fraction

Utilisation fraction is a property of temporary polygons: it is the part of the time that this
population is present, which can be defined or both day and night situation.

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6 Appendices

6.1 List of chemicals


The full list of chemicals in the extended (DIPPR) database can be found in a separate
document.

The following chemicals are included in the standard YAWS database of EFFECTS/
RISKCURVES:

Acetic acid
Acetonitrile
Acrolein
Acrylonitrile
Air
Allylamine
Allylchloride
Ammonia
Arsine
Benzene
Bromine
Butadiene (1,3,)
Butane (n-)
Butene (1,)
Butylamine (n-)
Butylamine (s-)
Butylamine (t-)
Carbon monoxide
Carbondioxide
Carbondisulfide
Carbonic dichloride (phosgene)
Carbonyl fluoride
Chlorine
Chloroacetaldehyde
Chloroacetyl chloride
Chloroform
Chloroprene
Cumene
Cyanogen
Cyclohexane
Diborane
Dichloroethene (1,1,)
Dichloromethane
Dimethyl amine
Ethane
Ethene
Ethyl acrylate
Ethyl amine
Ethyl mercaptan
Ethylbenzene
Ethylene dichloride
Ethylene oxide
Ethyleneimine

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334 RISKCURVES

Fluorine
Formaldehyde
Formic acid
Gasoline
Hexafluoroacetone
Hydrazine
Hydrogen
Hydrogen bromide
Hydrogen chloride
Hydrogen cyanide
Hydrogen fluoride
Hydrogen peroxide
Hydrogen sulfide
Isobutyl amine
Isobutylene
Isoprene
Isopropyl amine
Ketene
Methane
Methanol
Methyl acrylate
Methyl amine
Methyl bromide
Methyl chloride
Methyl iodide
Methyl mercaptan
Methyl methacrylate
Nitro propane (2,)
Nitrogen
Nitrogen dioxide
Nitrous oxide
Oxygen
Pentane (n-)
Perchloryl fluoride
Phosphine
Propane
Propene
Propyl mercaptan
Propylamine (n-)
Propylene oxide
Styrene
Sulphur dioxide
Sulphur trioxide
Tetrachloroethylene
Tetrahydrofuran
Toluene
Trimethyl amine
Water
Xylene (m-)

6.2 Low level error messages


In some cases an error happens at such a low level that the software can not link this to an
explanation string and it only displays a cryptic dialog.

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Appendices 335

In case of reproducible situation, you might send an email to the help-desk, describing the
actions you performed that raised this error.

Note that the help-desk will not provide support for internal Windows errors, or errors that
cannot be reproduced on a standard, clean, system.

Apart from the details information provided in the message, it is very often useful to include
the .RISKX projects file that has triggered the error as an attachment to the email .

It is strongly advised to describe the circumstances under which the error happened.

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6.3 Known limitations


Ignition points
RISKCURVES is not yet capable of working with location dependant ignition propabilities or
ignition points. This implies that the so-called "free field" method is used for both individual risk
and societal risk calculations.
The free field method assumes explosion occurring at the point where the LEL cloud has
reached its maximum size. (Time of LEL contour is set as tMac as reported by dispersion
explosives model).

Dense gas dispersion


In the dense gas model, there is a transition between different models at the moment when
the release stops (i.e. after the duration of the release). This may cause differences
between results just before and just after the end of the release. In a concentration vs. time-
graph, there may be a discontinuity at this moment. (artifact 30165). This is particularly visible
if the concentration profile (moving concentration footprint) is shown. At the time of the end of
the outflow itself, there is an obvious discontinuity in this concentration footprint.

Pool evaporation
1) When evaporation is higher than the mass flow into the pool, the pool thickness decreases
until the minimum pool thickness (surface roughness) is reached. After that, the pool will
shrink in size.
For pools in bunds on water, that model has not been implemented completely; for those
pools, after the maximum area (bund area) has been reached, the pool thickness keeps
decreasing until it is zero, while the pool area is constant. (artifact 35366)

2) The transition from non-boiling to boiling for cryogenic substances works for spills on land,
but not on water. The calculation stops when the boiling temperature is reached. The
workaround here is to set the initial temperature of the spilled substance equal (or slightly
higher than) to the boiling temperature. (artifact 32938)

3) Volatile liquids on water.


When a volatile liquid is released, its temperature usually decreases. This causes the
water to also cool down. In the model for heat transfer that is implemented in EFFECTS,
there is no heat transfer by convection (i.e. the water behaves like a rigid body). Therefore,
the user may choose to set a maximum temperature difference between the pool and the
water to limit the temperature decrease of the pool.
When the maximum temperature difference is reached, the chart of heat flux from subsoil
versus time is not correctly presented: the heat flux from subsoil as calculated is not
sufficient to keep the temperature constant. An additional heat flux term, stemming from
heat transfer by convection of the water, would keep the pool at a constant temperature.

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Appendices 337

Combined models
For continuous release of liquefied gases, the heavy gas dispersion model always uses the
horizontal jet as source mode, even if the pool evaporation is dominant relative to the spray
release.

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Index 339

Chemical database sources 133

Index Chemical database structure


Chemical name 214
30

cloud cover 214


Cloud passage time 214
-A- Combined models 201
Combustion rate 214
Absorption speed 207
Command button panel 97
Absorption surface 207
Comparison sets 44, 169
Accuracy parameters 156
Concentrating averaging time flammables 125, 216
Accuracy settings 130
Concentrating averaging time toxics 125, 216
Air relative humidity 162, 207
Concentration at (Sd, Yd) 216
Ambient pressure 208
Concentration at (Xd, Yd, Zd, t) 216
Ambient relative humidity 208
Concentration at maximum plume rise 216
Ambient temperature 162, 208
Concentration at plume touch-down 217
Amount of CO2 in atmosphere 208
Concentration at plume's centre-line at Xd 217
Analysis points 90, 170
Concentration averaging time 217
Angle between hole and flame axis 208
Concentration indoors at time t 218
at distance 209
Concentration reduction at t 218
at distance to the source 209
Confined mass in explosive range 219
at time t 209
Consequence Risk 21, 172
Atmospheric pressure 162, 210
Consequence Risk levels 176
Atmospheric transmissivity 210
Contour plot accuracy 219
Average mass flow rate 210
Converting Vs9 user chemicals 145
Average release rate (1st 20%) 210
Create consequence risk contours 326
Average release rate (2nd 20%) 210
Create societal risk maps 326
Axial distance from release (Sd) 211
Creating chemical mixtures 142
Cross-sectional area of the tank 219
-B- Cumulate transport FN graphs
Cumulation of sources 203
326

Base frequency 87, 323 Cumulation sets 44, 168


based upon time 211 Curve Number 220
Blast-wave shape at Xd 212 CurveNumber for Multi energy explosion method
Bleve fraction 87, 323 125, 221
Burst pressure vessel 212

-D-
-C- Damage (general description) at Xd 221
Calculate Heat Risk by 176, 323 Damage definition 173
Calculate toxic contour by 213 Damage to brick houses at Xd 222
Calculate Toxic Risk by 176, 324 Damage to structures (empirical) at Xd 222
Calculation Set 44, 85, 155 Damage to typical American-style houses at Xd
Calculation Settings 44, 155 223
day month year number 223
CalculationSet definition 85 Default mixingheight 125, 224
Case description 213 Define population by 224
Cause of vessel failure 213 Density gas at pipe exit at time t 224
Cell size population grids 324 Diameter of expanded jet 224
Cell size Risk grids 156, 324 Diameter of expanded jet at time t 225
Chance delayed ignition 87, 325 DIERS top venting (vessel only) 190
Chance direct ignition 87, 325 Discharge coefficient 225
Chemcial Mixtures 33 Display units 121
Chemical database manager 132 Distance from center of the pool (Xd) 225

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Distance from centre mass of confined explosive cloud Fraction explosion phenomenon 87, 327
to point of study 226 Fraction of CO2 in Atmosphere 162, 236
Distance from centre mass of the cloud at which Fraction of flammable cloud confined 236
threshold overpressure is reached 226 Fraction of liberated energy going to kinetic energy
Distance from centre of vessel (Xd) 226 237
Distance from release (Xd) 227 Fraction of mortality at (Xd, Yd, Zd) 237
Distance perpendicular to wind direction (Yd) 228 Fraction of the flame covered by soot 237
Distance to plume touch-down 228 Fragment distribution 238
Distance to toxic dose D or fraction of mortality F Frequency correction factor 87, 327
228 Frequency equally distributed 87, 327
Dose at (Xd, Yd, Zd) 229 Froude Number 238
Dose reduction at t 229 Frustum lift off height 238
Duration of the fire 229
Duration of the release 229
-G-
-E- GAME equivalent curve number
GAME expansion type 239
239

Editing constant properties 137 Gas release from a long pipeline 188
Editing properties of chemicals 137 Gas release from a vessel or pipe 187
Editing temperature-dependent properties 137 Geo-referencing 147
Environment parameters 162 Graph Area of the cloud above LEL at release level vs.
Environment settings 129 Time 239
Equipment 44, 165 Graph Circle circumscribed to maximum distance to
Equipment definition 86 threshold concentration at Zd 240
Equivalency factor 230 Graph Concentration Contour Plot 240
Equivalent TNT mass 230 Graph Concentration in the plume centre-line vs
Error messages 334 Distance from stack 240
Evacuation time 230 Graph Concentration vs Axial distance at Yd 241
Exit vapor mass fraction 231 Graph Concentration vs. Down-wind distance at time t
Exit vapour mass fraction at time t 231 and (Yd, Zd) 241
Expansion type 231 Graph Concentration vs. Time at (Xd, Yd, Zd) 241
Expert Parameter settings 125 Graph display panel 92
Explosive Mass 231 Graph Distance from rupture to interface vs Time
241
Explosive mass at time t 232
Graph Dynamic pressure vs Distance 242
Exposure duration 232
Graph Explosive mass vs. Time 242
Exposure duration to heat radiation 233
Graph Filling degree vs Time 243
Extrapolated time to empty pipeline 233
Graph Fraction of mortality vs. Down-wind distance at
(Yd, Zd) 243
-F- Graph functionality 93
Graph Height of the liquid inside the vessel vs Time
Filling degree (liquid volume/tank volume) 233 243
Filling degree at time t 233 Graph Jet velocity vs Axial distance at Yd 243
Fixed indoors outdoors toxic ratio 158, 234 Graph Mass flow rate vs Time 244
Flame path length 234 Graph Mass of liquid remaining in the vessel vs Time
Flame temperature 234 244
Flame tilt 235 Graph Mass of vapour remaining in the vessel vs Time
Formula 137 244
Formula ID 137 Graph Maximum concentration vs. Down-wind
distance at (Yd, Zd) 244
Fraction combustion heat radiated 235
Graph Maximum range contour plot 245
Fraction confined mass in Multi energy explosion
method 125, 236 Graph Overpressure contour plot 245
Fraction daytime hours 87, 326 Graph Overpressure vs Distance 245

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Index 341

Graph Plume height vs Distance from stack 245 Initial height of the liquid above release point 258
Graph Plume radius vs Distance from stack 246 Initial jet pressure 258
Graph Positive phase duration vs Distance 246 Initial jet temperature 258
Graph Pressure at pipe exit vs Time 246 Initial liquid mass fraction 259
Graph Pressure impulse vs Distance 247 Initial mass in vessel 259
Graph Quality outflow at pipe exit vs Time 247 Initial plume density 259
Graph selection box 99 Initial pressure in pipeline 259
Graph Temperature at pipe exit vs Time 247 Initial pressure in vessel 259
Graph Temperature vs Axial distance 247 Initial speed of fragment 260
Graph Total mass released vs Time 248 Initial temperature in pipeline 260
Graph Toxic Contour Plot 248 Initial temperature in vessel 260
Graph Toxic dose vs. Down-wind distance at (Yd, Zd) Inside fraction 260
248 Installation of the software drivers for the dongle 14
Graph Vessel pressure vs Time 248 Integration tolerance 260
Graph Vessel temperature vs Time 249 Inter accident distance 156, 328
Graph Void fraction at pipe exit vs Time 249 Inter accident distance FN 156, 327
Grid resolution 249 Introduction 13
Ground / Surface/ Bund temperature 162, 249 Inverse Monin-Obukhov Length (1/L) 261
Is the vessel elevated? 261

-H- Iso Risk Contours 21, 178

Heat emission from fire surface


Heat of reaction per kg product
250
250
-J-
Heat radiation at Xd 250 Jet velocity at (Sd, Yd) 262
Heat radiation damage probits 158, 250
Heat Radiation Exposure Duration 158, 251
Heat radiation level total destruction 158, 252 -K-
Heat radiation levels in contour plot 252
Known limitations 336
heatflux solar radiation 250, 275
Height (Zd) 252
Height bottom of the fire ball
Height cylinder 262
252 -L-
Height difference between pipe entrance and exit Latitude 262
253 Length cylinder 262
Height leak above tank bottom 253 Length of cloud (between LEL) at time tmac 263
Height of congested area 254 Length of frustum (flame) (Rl) 263
Height of construction 255 Length of rectangular pool 264
Height of liquid at time t 255 Length of toxic contour 264
Height of the plume's centre-line at Xd 256 Length source in wind (x), crosswind (y) and
Height to LEL at time t 256 z-direction 264
Hole contraction coefficient 125, 256 Length-Diameter ratio of the vessel 265
Hole diameter 257 Lethal fraction for present in flash fire 158, 266
Hole rounding 257 Lethal fraction for present in poolfire 158, 266
Hole type 257 Level interpolation method 329
How to use the built-in GIS system 103 Liberated energy 266
Limit of momentum region 267
Limitations for mixtures 33, 142
-I- Liquefied gas from long pipeline 195
Liquefied gas release 189
Include overpressure effects 257
List of chemicals 333
Individual Risk 178
LOC scenario 44, 166
Indoor Ventilation ratio 258
Log Panel 114

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342 RISKCURVES

Lowest_significant_frequency 156, 329 Outflow angle in XZ plane (0=horizontal ; 90=vertical)


275
Output message level 275
-M- Overpressure above liquid 276

Map display panel 101


Mass and volume calculator
Mass flow rate at time t 267
146 -P-
Mass flow rate of the source 268 Pasquill stability class 276
Mass of empty vessel 268 Peak dynamic pressure at Xd 277
Mass of fragment 268 Peak overpressure at Xd 277
Mass of heaviest piece 268 Peak pressure inside damage 277
Mass of liquid in vessel at time t 268 Perform maximum concentration vs. distance graph
Mass of vapour in vessel at time t 269 277
Maximum area of explosive cloud 269 Perform societal risk calculation 331
Maximum Averaging Time 269 Perform time-dependent explosive graphs 277
Maximum concentration at (Yd, Zd) 269 Perform toxic contour plot 278
Maximum distance of source to LEL 270 Perform toxic indoors calculation 158, 278
Maximum explosive mass 270 Pipe contraction coefficient 125, 278
Maximum mass flow rate 270 Pipeline diameter 278
Maximum plume height 271 Pipeline length 278
Maximum range of fragment 271 Pipeline roughness 280
Maximum Release Duration 271 Pipeline volume 280
Maximum toxic exposure duration 330 Pool evaporation 303
Maxium number of accident points 156, 329 Pool spreading 304
menu bar 80 Pool surface 280
Meteorological Data 44, 163, 272 pool temperature 281
Meteorological Daytime Fraction 330 Pool thickness 281
Meteorological distribution 127 Poolfire calculation type 281
Minimum valid and maximum valid temperatures Population 44, 164
137 Population polygon 282
Mixing Height 272 Positive phase duration at Xd 282
Mixture properties 34, 142 Predefined concentration 282
Model valid until time 273 Predefined wind direction 282
Modelset 44, 168 Presentation settings 123
Mortality Probit calculator 147 Presenting Model Results 93
Pressure at pipe exit at time t 283
Pressure damage based on 158, 283
-N- Pressure damage Probits 283
Pressure impulse at Xd 284
N value 273
Pressure in vessel at time t 284
Node input panel 98
Pressure level total destruction 158, 284, 284
Number of pieces 274
Probabilty FlashAndExplosion 125, 285, 331
Number subsectors FN 156, 330
Project file 181
Number subsectors FX 156, 330
Project tree 83
Protection factor clothing 158, 285
-O-
Offset between release location and LEL at time tmac-Q-
274
Quick start 54
Offset between release point and cloud centre 274
Options 119
Outdoor concentration 275

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Index 343

Surface emissive power (actual) 298

-R- System requirements 14

Radial distance from release (Yd)


Radius at maximum plume rise
285
286
-T-
Radius of the fireball 286 Take protective effects of clothing into account? 299
Related lethal fraction for peak overpressure 287, Temperature after release 299
287 Temperature at pipe exit at time 299
Release location 288 Temperature at Sd 299
Report panel 112 Temperature in vessel at time t 300
Representative density 288 Temperature of the pool 300
Representative outflow duration 288 Temporary population 328
Representative pool radius 289 The basic GUI 43
Representative pressure 289 The user interface in detail 79
Representative release rate 289 Threshold concentration 176, 301
Representative temperature 289 Threshold fraction of mortality F 301
Representative vapour mass fraction 290 Threshold overpressure 176, 301, 302
Resolution of the time consuming graphs 290 Threshold toxic dose D 302
Response fraction indoors 290 Tilt angle central axis flare (?b) 302
Response fraction outdoors 290 Time needed to empty pipe (extrapolated) 303
Result panel 91 Time t after cloud arrival 304
Risk transects 151 Time t after start release 304
Room volume 291 Time to empty vessel 303
Roughness length description 291 TNO software products 13
toolbar 81

-S- Total combustion energy


Total mass in explosive range
304
305
Saving your data and checking the function 137 Total mass in vessel 305
Scenario 44, 166 Total Mass Involved BLEVE 305
Scenario definition 87 Total mass of decomposable chemical in vessel
Scenario panel 96 305
Total mass released 306
Shape Definition 292
Total mass released at time t 306
Societal Risk 178
Toxic dose indoors 306
Societal Risk (FN) Curve 21, 180
Toxic dose outdoors 306
Societal Risk Map 21, 181
Toxic Exposure Duration 158, 307
Sound speed in liquid phase 293
Toxic Exposure Duration based on 307
Speed of released chemical at the source 293
Toxic Inhalation Heigth 125, 308
Spray calculation type 294
Transition time to vapour flow 308
SR map 21, 181
Transport equipment 44, 165
Standard deviation of turbulent velocity in vertical and
horizontal direction 294 Tree nodes 44
StandardPipeRoughness 125, 295 TurbulentFreeJetPressure 309
Start of exposure (after moment of release) 295 Type of BLEVE 212
Stationary equipment 44, 165 Type of calculation 309
Step size for contour searching 295 Type of confinement 310
subsoil 313 Type of flow inside the vessel 310
Subsoil type 297 Type of flow of the jet 311
subsoil water temperature 296 Type of pool 311
Surface area of a cylinder 297 Type of release 312
Surface area of frustum 297 Type of TNT equivalency 313
Surface emissive power 298 Typical obstacle diameter 314

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344 RISKCURVES

-U- -X-
Uninstalling the software 15 X, Y - coordinates of release 322
Upgrading 17
Use 50% LEL 314
Use Game overpressure 314 -Z-
Use mass between LEL and UEL 315
Z - coordinate (height) of release 323
Use which representative step 315
User comment 316
Utilisation fraction 331

-V-
Vapour release from vessel or pipe 190
Ventilation rate 158, 317
Ventilation rate at daytime 317
Ventilation rate at nighttime 317
Ventilation ratio 158, 317
Vessel emptying duration 317
Vessel Type 317
Vessel Volume 318
View factor 318
Viewing graphs of the toxicity parameters 137
Volume Blockage Ratio 319
Volumetric fraction of chemical at release point 319
Vulnerability parameters 158
Vulnerability settings 128

-W-
Water temperature 162, 319
Weight ratio of CO2/chemical 319
Weight ratio of H2O/chemical 320
Weight ratio of HCl/chemical 320
Weight ratio of NO2/chemical 320
Weight ratio of SO2/chemical 320
What is RISKCURVES 20
What's new 29
Which input 21
Which results 21
Which tasks 20
Width of cloud (between LEL) at time tmac 320
Width of frustum base 320
Width of frustum tip 321
Width of toxic contour 322
Wind comes from 322
Wind direction for damage 322
Wind speed at 10m height 322
World file 147

2016 TNO