goal seek

PRODUCT ZANDU
selling price (rs. Per unit 42
units sold 50000
Revenue 2100000
variable cost per unit 24
variable cost(Rs) 1200000
fixed cost(rs) 510000
net profit rs) 390000

change in sale price CHANGE IN UNITS SOLD

PRODUCT ZANDU PRODUCT
selling price (rs. Per unit 34.2 selling price (rs. Per unit
units sold 50000 units sold
Revenue 1710000 Revenue
variable cost per unit 24 variable cost per unit
variable cost(Rs) 1200000 variable cost(Rs)
fixed cost(rs) 510000 fixed cost(rs)
net profit rs) 0 net profit rs)
 change in variable cost
ZANDU PRODUCT ZANDU
42 selling price (rs. Per unit 42
28333.3333333 units sold 50000
1190000 Revenue 2100000
24 variable cost per unit 24
680000 variable cost(Rs) 1200000
510000 fixed cost(rs) 510000
0 net profit rs) 390000
change in change in fixed cost
PRODUCT ZANDU
selling price (rs. Per unit 42
units sold 50000
Revenue 2100000
variable cost per unit 24
variable cost(Rs) 1200000
fixed cost(rs) 510000
net profit rs) 390000
 PRODUCT ZANDU
selling price (rs. Per unit 42
units sold 50000
Revenue 2100000
variable cost per unit 24
variable cost(Rs) 1200000
fixed cost(rs) 510000
net profit rs) 390000

390000 30 33 36
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
DYNAMIC SCENARIO ANALYSIS
MODEL

UNITS SOLD 800

PRICE PER UNIT 93
TOTAL REVENUE 74400

COST PER UNIT 44

TOTAL COST 35200
GROSS PROFIT 39200
FIXED COST 41000
SALARIES 23000
RENT 12000
UTILITIES 6000
NET PROFIT/LOSS -1800

SCENARIO TABLE
SELECTION
1 PESSIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC LOW
2 UNITS SOLD 800 800 900
3 PRICE PER UNIT 93 93 95
4 COST PER UNIT 44 44 42
5 SALARIES 23000 23000 22500
6 RENT 12000 12000 11000
7 UTILITIES 6000 6000 5500

NET PROFIT -1800 -1800 3400

DATA TABLE -1800 PESSIMISTIC LOW

BASE CASE HIGH OPTIMISTIC
990 1100 1200
100 105 110
14 38 36
18000 18000 15000
10000 9000 8000
5000 4500 4300

BASE CASE HIGH OPTIMISTIC

YEAR ASSETS LIABLITIES NET WORTH
YR2007 822000 418000 404000
YR2008 860000 482000 378000
YR2009 724000 498000 226000
YR2010 978000 551000 427000
YR2011 970000 449000 521000
YR2012 914000 410000 504000
YR2013 879000 580000 299000
YR2014 725000 585000 140000
YR2015 960000 495000 465000
YR2016 722000 581000 141000
 YEAR ASSETS LIABLITIES
YR2007 822000 -418000
YR2008 860000 -482000
YR2009 724000 -498000
YR2010 978000 -551000
YR2011 970000 -449000
YR2012 914000 -410000
YR2013 879000 -580000
YR2014 725000 -585000
YR2015 960000 -495000
YR2016 722000 -581000

-700000 -600000 -500000 -400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0

YR2016
YR2015
YR2014
YR2013
YR2012
YR2011
YR2010
YR2009
YR2008
YR2007

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000

 -100000 0

1000000 1200000
MLRM- MULTI RELATION REGRESSION MODEL

SALES TIME MKT POT ADV EXP SHARE CHANGEACCOUNTS WORK

3669.88 43.1 74065.1 4582.9 2.51 0.34 74.86 15.05
3473.95 108.13 58117.3 5539.8 5.51 0.15 107.32 19.97
2295.1 13.82 21118.5 2950.4 10.91 -0.72 96.75 17.34
4675.56 186.18 68521.3 2243.1 8.27 0.17 195.12 13.4
6125.96 161.79 57805.1 7747.1 9.15 0.5 180.44 17.64
2134.94 8.94 37806.9 402.4 5.51 0.15 104.88 16.22
5031.66 365.04 50935.3 3140.6 8.54 0.55 256.1 18.8
3367.45 220.32 35602.1 2086.2 7.07 -0.49 126.83 19.86
6519.45 127.64 46176.8 8846.2 12.54 1.24 203.25 17.42
4876.37 105.69 42053.2 5673.1 8.85 0.31 119.51 21.41
2468.27 57.72 36829.7 2761.8 5.38 0.37 116.26 16.32
2533.31 23.58 33612.7 1991.8 5.43 -0.65 142.28 14.51
2408.11 13.82 21412.8 1971.5 8.48 0.64 89.43 19.35
2337.38 13.82 20416.9 1737.4 7.8 1.01 84.55 20.02
4586.95 86.99 36272 10694.2 10.34 0.11 119.51 15.26
2729.24 165.85 23093.3 8618.6 5.15 0.04 80.49 15.87
3289.4 116.26 26878.6 7747.9 6.64 0.68 136.58 7.81
2800.78 42.28 39572 4565.8 5.45 0.66 78.86 16
3264.2 52.84 51866.1 6022.7 6.31 -0.1 136.58 17.44
3453.62 165.04 58749.8 3721.1 6.35 -0.03 138.21 17.98
1741.45 10.57 23990.8 861 7.37 -1.63 75.61 20.99
2035.75 13.82 25694.9 3571.5 8.39 -0.43 102.44 21.66
1578 8.13 23736.3 2845.5 5.15 0.04 76.42 21.46
4167.44 58.44 34314.3 5060.1 12.88 0.22 136.58 24.78
2799.97 21.14 22809.5 3552 9.14 -0.74 88.62 24.96

square root of fsignificance for individual point w

maximum f value then choose that model highe

r=cov(x,y)/(variance x.variancex)
cov(x,x)=variance x2/variance x2 =1
How to get the best model?
Byx=byx(X-X BAR)
R=COV(X1Y)
 RATING SUMMARY OUTPUT
4.9
5.1 Regression Statistics
2.9 Multiple R 0.960230559
3.4 R Square 0.922042726
4.6 Adjusted R Square 0.88306409
4.5 Standard Error 449.0153681
4.6 Observations 25
2.3
4.9 ANOVA
2.8 df SS
3.1 Regression(explained) 8 38153712.1137
4.2 Residual(unexplained) 16 3225836.81311
4.3 Total 24 41379548.9269
4.2
5.5 Coefficients Standard Error
3.6 Intercept -1507.8357778 778.6084145786
3.4 TIME 2.0101369027 1.9305144468
4.2 MKT POT 0.0372055722 0.0082021598
3.6 ADV EXP 0.1509836587 0.0471069017
3.1 SHARE 199.04018213 67.0291490165
1.6 CHANGE 290.86657483 186.7768725549
3.4 ACCOUNTS 5.5497447884 4.775443082
2.7 WORK 19.793893586 33.6751714363
2.8 RATING 8.1890347094 128.4984664051
3.9

ance for individual point we will get t-stat for that individual

choose that model higher the f value more significant the model
variancex)
ariance x2 =1
SUARE ROOT of R Square
(regression ss/total ss)

square root of residual MS

f measures overall significance of

MS(SS/DF) F(REGRESSION/residual) Significance F

4769214.01421802 23.6550788674 1.81494E-007
201614.800819493

t Stat(coeffecient/standard error) P-value Lower 95%

-1.9365778093 0.0706629821 -3158.41187092
1.0412441647 0.3132413388 -2.0823708762
4.5360701326 0.0003374313 0.0198177702
3.2051281933 0.0055179142 0.0511214888
2.9694570951 0.0090369234 56.9447348673
1.5572943847 0.1389581702 -105.082704447
1.1621423799 0.2622202278 -4.5737422402
0.5877889478 0.5648784501 -51.5942803211
0.0637286571 0.9499756855 -264.215543358

less than 0.05 good model

measures individual statistical significane

ures overall significance of the model

Upper 95%
142.74031536
6.1026446817
0.0545933741
0.2508458286
341.13562939
686.8158541
15.673231817
91.182067492
280.59361278
 SALES TIME MKT POT ADV EXP SHARE
SALES 1
TIME 0.6228809052 1
MKT POT 0.5978122786 0.45397784 1
ADV EXP 0.5961774288 0.2491704621 0.1740999127 1
SHARE 0.4835105809 0.1061053557 -0.2106712699 0.2644584171 1
CHANGE 0.4891807835 0.2514688535 0.2682871229 0.3765164893 0.08547
ACCOUNTS 0.7539861947 0.7577886534 0.4786425679 0.2000366129 0.403011
WORK -0.1172226634 -0.1794056091 -0.2588392688 -0.2722349724 0.349345
RATING 0.4018782954 0.1011716922 0.3587029036 0.4114615581 -0.023563

255 regerssion equation can be formed

 CHANGE ACCOUNTS WORK RATING

1
0.3274150028 1
-0.2876647308 -0.1988475092 1
0.5493333485 0.2286131428 -0.2769134892 1
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8622185947
R Square 0.7434209051
Adjusted R Square 0.6749998131
Standard Error 2812.8921165
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 4 343883161.9142 85970790.479
Residual 15 118685430.8858 7912362.0591
Total 19 462568592.8

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 24267.4769 2833.998959997 8.5629801712
MILEAGE(QUANTITATIVE) -0.0985948538 0.0351588883 -2.8042653987
AGE(quantitative) -762.91807666 346.6110658529 -2.2010782454
EXCELLENT DUMMY 5631.8626006 2022.142562211 2.7850967117
POOR DUMMY -2069.9547683 1610.442689453 -1.2853327733
 F Significance F
10.86537621 0.0002438365

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

0.000000369 18226.9511322 30308.002667 18226.951132 30308.002667
0.0133443778 -0.1735342498 -0.0236554577 -0.1735342498 -0.0236554577
0.0438053332 -1501.70207204 -24.134081292 -1501.702072 -24.134081292
0.0138704126 1321.76777532 9941.9574259 1321.7677753 9941.9574259
0.218167542 -5502.53209093 1362.6225544 -5502.5320909 1362.6225544
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.7883832332
R Square 0.6215481223
Adjusted R Square 0.5206276216
Standard Error 3416.2352817
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 4 287508640.2977 71877160.074
Residual 15 175059952.5023 11670663.5
Total 19 462568592.8

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 29388.827909 3212.977057983 9.1469149573
MILEAGE(QUANTITATIVE) -0.1427304373 0.0409557363 -3.4849925837
AGE(quantitative) -1012.2980264 410.8743562064 -2.4637654092
GOOD DUMMY -1259.6058935 1924.447608401 -0.6545285452
POOR DUMMY -3275.1045326 1995.85263256 -1.6409550882
 F Significance F
6.1587895216 0.0038727548

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
1.59374E-007 22540.5294508 36237.13 22540.53 36237.13
0.0033243458 -0.2300255224 -0.055435 -0.230026 -0.055435
0.0263194542 -1888.05598211 -136.5401 -1888.056 -136.5401
0.5226815319 -5361.46885489 2842.257 -5361.469 2842.257
0.121602586 -7529.16369956 978.9546 -7529.164 978.9546
CAR PRIC(USD) MILEAGE(QUANTITATIVE)
1 27995 52438
2 22500 30815
3 21490 18260
4 20400 36504
5 19495 23781
6 18700 33796
7 15995 51706
8 15000 78521
9 13990 44692
10 13990 59060
11 13889 62330
12 13500 86137
13 12999 53969
14 12500 54718
15 11600 50366
16 11400 64567
17 11295 69953
18 9995 92367
19 9995 78880
20 9600 55512
AGE(quantitative) GOOD DUMMY POOR DUMMY
2 0 0
7 1 0
5 1 0
3 0 0
3 0 0
7 0 0
3 1 0
5 0 0
4 0 1
5 0 0
4 0 1
4 0 0
5 1 0
9 0 0
5 0 1
7 0 0
4 1 0
6 0 0
8 0 1
8 0 0
CONDITION(qualitative)
EXCELLENT
EXCELLENT
GOOD
GOOD
EXCELLENT
GOOD
GOOD
GOOD
POOR
GOOD
POOR
GOOD
GOOD
GOOD
POOR
GOOD
GOOD
GOOD
POOR
GOOD
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.862218595
R Square 0.743420905
Adjusted R Square 0.674999813
Standard Error 2812.892116
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 4 343883161.914 85970790.48
Residual 15 118685430.886 7912362.059
Total 19 462568592.8

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept(AVERAGE PRCE) 22197.52213 3046.11126498 7.287167211
MILEAGE(QUANTITATIVE) -0.098594854 0.0351588883 -2.804265399
AGE(quantitative) -762.9180767 346.611065853 -2.201078245
EXCELLENT DUMMY 7701.817369 2334.30863207 3.299399772
GOOD DUMMY 2069.954768 1610.44268945 1.285332773

IF A CAR IS DRIVEN 1 MILE EXTRA MILEAGE WILL COME DOWN BY 0.0985

IF THE CAR IS 1 YEAR USED THE PRICE WILL DROP BY 762.47
 F Significance F
10.86537621 0.0002438365

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

2.6648E-006 15704.88969 28690.15457
0.013344378 -0.17353425 -0.023655458
0.043805333 -1501.702072 -24.13408129
0.00486489 2726.3563189 12677.27842
0.218167542 -1362.622554 5502.532091

BY 0.0985