Renewable Energy Perspectives

in Jordan
SUHIL KIWAN
PROFESSOR OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING AT
JORDAN UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
IRBID-JORDAN
EMAIL: KIWAN@JUST.EDU.JO

Jordan CNC,
Amman-Jordan
Feb. 25, 2016
 Renewable Energy
Prospective in Jordan

Why RE?
Energy Situation in Jordan
Energy Strategy in Jordan
Road map to achieve energy strategy by 2020
Grid Impact study toward 2025
One Of the most important events in history of mankind
Took place in 1985 (No. populations exceeds carrying capacity of planet Earth)

Era of over-use of resources

controlled balance
Era of Free expansion
10 bn

1985 Who
5 bn should go ?
people Or
5 bn Carrying cap. Earth 5 bn what else ?

3 bn
 HUMAN SECURITY Octet:
Clean and sufficient energy for a world with carry cap. for 10 bn
people

POPULATION reliable
Limit 10 bn EN-supply
more WATER
moreCivilization desalination
& wealth per cap reprocessing
Clean and secure
energy/power = key to
ecological and social
Global and stability of a world
with 10 bn people more FOOD
inter-generational Irrigation, fertilizer
justice distribution

Bio Climate
Diversity stability
2. Energy from DESERTS a (the) world-wide resource

290 126

~1100
144 PWh/y

700
125
95
World 2050:
total 60 PWh/y 11
~200
Scenario: 50% from deserts:
30 PWh/y ~200 Solar energy
collectors for into red square
12,000 GW-el =
from 500 x 500 km total world energy
= 1% of useful deserts consumption (2005)
distributed over 10,000 sites

5 5
 Renewable energy

RE (Natural Resources) includes Solar, wind, rain, tides, geothermal,

biomass, hydropower
Why are we interested in RE?
Sustainable
Strengthen energy security
Clean energy better to the environment
Creating New jobs
Improve the economy
Most importantly (Human Security)!
http://www.greentechmedia.com/
 JORDAN CASE

Main Challenges of Energy

Almost no indigenous energy resources .
High dependency on imported energy.
(97% import in 2012).
3%

97 %

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources

 Cost of Energy vs GDP
18% in 2015
3.8 GW PV
25
5 kmx5km
20
Percentage (%)

15

10

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
 High growth of primary energy demand.

Period Electricity Demand Growth Primary Energy Demand

(%) Growth (%)
(2008-2020) 7.4 5.5
Electricity Generated Capacity to Meet Growth of Primary Energy Demand
Future Demand.

Med. Demand
7000

6000
1.6E+04
5000
1.5E+04
Capacity (MW)

1.4E+04 5.5%
%5.5
1.3E+04
4000

3000 1.2E+04
1.1E+04

1000 TOE
2000 1.0E+04
9.0E+03
1000
8.0E+03
7.0E+03
6.0E+03
0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Year 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Additional units+ Current units+ Interconnection
Current Units
Max. Peak ( Med. Sen.) YEAR
Max. Peak ( Med. Sen.)+10%

The additional generated capacity needed up to 2020 is The expected demand for primary energy amounts to15
4000 MW, an average of 300 MW per year. million tons of oil equivalent in 2020 compared to
7.5 million tons of oil equivalent in 2008.
 ENERGY MIX IN JORDAN

2009

Imported Elect. Renewable

1% 2%

Natural Gas
36%

Oil Products
61%
Energy Strategy ( 2007-2020)
MAIN GOALS :
Diversifying the energy resources
Increasing the share of local resources in the energy
mix
Reducing the dependency on imported oil
This will be achieved through :
Maximizing the utilization of domestic resources
(oil shale, natural gas, etc.)
Expanding the development of renewable energy
projects
Generating electricity from nuclear energy
Applying Energy Conservation measures
 Jordan Energy Strategy
The Energy Mix in Jordan (2010 2020)

Oil Shale
11% Energy Mix. 2015
Imorted Elec.
2%
Renewables
7%
Oil
51%
N. Gas
29% Energy Mix 2020
Nuclear
Oil Shale 6%
14%
Imorted
Oil
Elec.
40%
1%
Oil N. Gas Renewables Imorted Elec. Oil Shale

N. Gas
29%

Renewable
s
10%
Jordan Renewable Energy Policy Targets

Promoting Renewable Energy to contribute 7% in the

energy mix in 2015, and 10% in 2020. (2300 MWe)
Main Projects to be developed either through
Competitive Bidding, or Direct Proposal Submissions to
reach these targets include:
1200 MW Wind Energy
600 MW Solar Energy
50 MW Waste-to-Energy
JORDAN'S 2020 RE TARGETS

The RE targets reported by the MEMR are 1000MW of Wind and 600MW of
Solar and 50MW by Biomass by 2020.
Who Am I?

Government Official
Investor
 And write a proposal

Your Boss
 This means
more votes
..

Elected Official
Environmentalist
Talking to yourself in the mirror or
You are dreaming!
Magic Words
Cost
Profit
Social Impact of Technology (Jobs)
Environmental concerns
Regulations and Laws

These questions should be answered along with

technology developments.
EU-MENA RISE (Research Institute of Sustainable
Energy)
Technical Questions (undergraduate and graduate
programs in renewable energy and sustainable
developments)
 (Some) Stakeholders Status
MANSUR (Master on REEE) market study showed the market need of
specialized people in REEE (Bachelor and Master levels)(2010)
MUREE Market need (2012) concluded the need for more engineers
and specialist in REEE.
Number of companies related to REEE in Jordan by 2010 : less than 30
Market rapidly expanded. Now more than 600 companies in the
market.
In 2007 only one Jordanian University Offers a BSc program in RE.
More universities offer programs in REEE (JUST, UoJ, HU, Mu, PSUT)
 Research and Development in
REEE
Todays status or R&D in REEE
Different Types of R&D 2010
activities: more focus and
deeper
Wider: Policy making, impact,
innovation, .
Local Oriented Studies:
Examples
Technological, Economical, and Environmental Impacts of Jordans
Strategic Plan to achieve 10% Renewable Energy by 2020. (Kiwan,
Al-sharaif and Zawaydeh (2015))
 KEY ENERGY STATISTICS

* PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND : +2.76% /yr

* ELECTRICITY DEMAND : +5.56% /yr
* 2013 RE SOLAR THERMAL : 1.78% of Primary
* RE SOLAR THERMAL : +5% /yr

PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION

* HOUSEHOLD : Slight Increase
* INDUSTRIAL : DECLINING
* TRANSPORTATION : INCREASING
ROADMAP TO ACHIEVE 10% BY 2020
 Other Perspective

Electricity Grid
Transmission Lines (grid Impact Study)

Ref: Abu Dyaak and Abu Lehya and Kiwan (2015)

 Integration of Renewable energy, Oil
shale and Nuclear energy to the grid
Project name Connection Capac YEAR Year PV (MW) Wind (MW) Total (MW)
point ity
(MW)

2016* 475 350 825

Oil shale Line amman 470 2019
project 1 east-amman 2017* 475 500 975
south
2018 775 500 1275

2019 875 600 1475

Oil shale Qatrana 400Kv 470 2021 2020 975 700 1675
project 2 s/s
2021 1075 800 1875
Nuclear Project Azraq 400/132 1000 2024 2022 1175 900 2075
And Rehab
400/132 2023 1275 1000 2275

2024 1375 1100 2475

2025 1475 1200 2675

Total 1940
 Distribution of Solar and
Wind Energy Projects in
Jordan
The connection
of renewable
Energy projects
in south area in
year 2025 case
scenario
 132KV grid

The connection
of renewable
energy projects
in north area in
year 2018 case
scenario
 No 132KV Lines
1 QAIA-QAT X1
2 CMNT-QAT
200
3 HASA-TAF(1)
2016 Current Grid
Loading of 4 QAIA-CEMENT 2018
Current 5 QAT-HASA(3) 2020
2025
transmission CEMENT -
150

line up to
6 HASA(1)
2025

Loading (%)
7 RAS-FUJ
100
8 RAS-TAF(1)
9 AQI-QUW(1)

10 ATPS-QUW(1) 50

11 NWMAAN-MDA
0
12 MDA-MAAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

13 MAAN-RAJIF Location Number as Labeled in Fig. 4

 100

2016
Loading of 80 2018
transmission lines 2020

up to 2025
2025

With Green 60

Loading (%)
Corridor
40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Locatiuon Number as Labeled in Fig. 4

Cost Gas Price (8$/MMBTU) Gas Price (10$/MMBTU) Gas Price (12$/MMBTU)
Analysis
for the Total
discounte
Average
Total
discounte
Average
LCOE
Total
discounte
Average
LCOE
Item
Integration d cost in
LCOE
(USD/Mwh)
d cost in (USD/Mwh d cost in (USD/Mwh
M$ M$ ) M$ )
of
Renewable generation
18,540.1 109.65 20,318.3 120.16 22,088.6 130.63
Energy cost
systems transmissio
282.0 1.67 282.0 1.67 282.0 1.67
and oil n cost
132.30
shale and 125.32 No
Nuclear to Total cost 18,822.1 111.32 20,600.3 121.83 22,370.7 Oil Shale
the Grid No
Nuclear
 Element (lines) N-1 loading % Reinforcement COST($)

ABDOON-AMS 132KV line 178 6.9km/132KVUnderground Cable, double circuit. 2020 1400

Abdali-HTPS 132KV line 135 12.77Km- 132KV overhead, double circuit. 2018 3000

NBAYADER-AMS 132KV Line 130 12Km- 132KV overhead, double circuit. 2025 3000

TAREQ-AMN132(1) 125 5.5Km- 132KV Reconductering with bundle 1000

conductor. 2020

Detailed Analysis of Samra- Amman North 110 27Km 400Kv new OHTL double circuit. 2024 17000

Grid Impact Study

HASANIND-IRBID 132KV Line 108.3 25Km- 132KV overhead, double circuit. 2019 3500

Samra HTPS 150 6.9km Reconductering with bundle conductor. 2024 1500

Amman South Transformer 117 Amman South Expansion.2020 7000

Amman North Transformers 110 Amman north Expansion. 2024 7000

Oil shale project 1 - 2019 5000

Oil shale project 2 - 2021 10000

Nuclear Project - 2024 45000

HTPS replacement - 2018 1000

Total cost for this case 105500

Green corridor cost - 2017 145000

Amman west substation and lines - 2017 89000

Total 339500
 Conclusions

We need RE systems more than anticipated to reach the strategy

target by 2020
The Need for green corridor is a must
The anticipated cost of electricity generation (energy mix) by 2025
will be lower than the current cost
Thank You