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Monday, July 19, 2010

KBC Technicals Commonwealth & Eurchf


From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

AUD:(.8712) Reapproached channel top off year high (see graph)

FOREX AUD=,22 (0.8708, 0.8719, 0.8707, 0.8709, -0.0001)


HOURLY CHARTS 0.890
.8871
.8860
0.885

0.880
.8792
0.875

0.870

0.865

0.860

0.855

0.850

0.845

0.840

0.835

.8315 0.830

0.825

0.820

0.815

0.810

.8066 .8083 0.805

0.800
24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Strong rebound retested .8860 and reapproached channel top off year high (see graph).
Support at .8635/ .8631 (today’s low?/ daily envelope bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8619 (reaction low hourly), ahead of .8582 (daily Long Term Moving Average↑ + break-up
hourly): tough on 1st attempts.
Resistance area at .8749/ .8753 (breakdown hourly/ daily envelope top), ahead of.8782 (daily Short Term Mov-
ing Average↓) and .8812 (weekly envelope top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8853 (weekly Bollinger midline), ahead of .8862/ .8871 (daily Downtrendline off year
high/ July 14 high) and .8883/ .8894 (61.8% year high to .8066/ 61.8% 2009 high to .8066): tough on 1st at-
tempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8635/ .8631 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) .8749/ .8753 (see above/ daily envelope top)
.8619 (see above) .8782 (daily ST MA↓)
.8812/ .8853 (weekly envelope top/ weekly Bollinger
.8582 (daily LT MA↑ + break-up hourly)
midline)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
Monday, July 19, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

CAD: (1.0510) Reapproached Downtrendline off 1.0854 (see graph)

FOREX CAD=,22 (1.0506, 1.0509, 1.0497, 1.0506, +0.0000) 1.090


1.0854
1.085

1.080

1.075

1.070
1.0680
1.0678
1.065

1.060

1.055

1.050

1.045

1.040

1.035

1.030

1.0276 1.025

1.020

1.015

1.0138 1.010

24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Drop from 1.0678 tested the redrawn daily Uptrendline off year low (1.0346 today), with rebound having reap-
proached Downtrendline off 1.0854 (see graph).
1st Support area at 1.0480/ 0470 (break-up hourly/ weekly Short Term Moving Average↑), with next levels at
1.0453 (daily Bollinger midline), ahead of 1.0430 (weekly envelope bottom + weekly Medium Term Moving
Average↑), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.0410 (reaction lows hourly): tough on 1st attempts.

1st Resistance area at 1.0580 (last week high + today’s high? + daily projection band top), where pause fa-
vored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.0650 (daily envelope top), ahead of 1.0678/ .0680 (see graph/ June 07 high): tough
on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.0480/ .0470 (see above/ weekly ST MA↑) 1.0580 (last week high + see above)

1.0453/ .0431 (daily Bollinger midline/ weekly enve-


1.0650 (daily envelope top)
lope bottom)

1.0410/ .0398 (see above/ broken weekly LT MA↓) 1.0678/ .0680 (see graph/ June 07 high)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
Monday, July 19, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

GBP: (1.5313) New recovery high on move back above Flag off year low (see graph)
FOREX GBP=,22 (1.5319, 1.5326, 1.5310, 1.5313, -0.0006)
1.5473 1.550
1.545
1.540
1.535
1.530
1.525
1.5230 1.520
1.515
1.510
1.505
1.500
1.495
1.4949
1.490
1.485
1.4771 1.480
1.475
1.470
1.4688 1.465
1.460
1.455
1.450
1.445
1.440
1.435
1.4346 1.430
1.425
1.420

24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

New recovery high on move back the Flag off year low (see graph: equivalent on daily charts has its broken
top at 1.5158 today): Support at 1.5270 (today’s low?), with next levels at 1.5251/ .5248 (reaction lows hourly/
daily envelope bottom), ahead of 1.5235 (reaction lows hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.5198 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↑), ahead of 1.5159/ .5158 (weekly enve-
lope bottom/ see above): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance area at 1.5352 (today’s high?), ahead of 1.5397 (reaction high hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.5414/ .5429 (daily Bollinger top/ daily envelope top), ahead of 1.5473 (current new re-
covery high off year low): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.5270 (see above) 1.5352 (see above)

1.5251/ .5248 (see above/ daily envelope bot-


1.5397 (see above)
tom/)

1.5235/ .5198 (see above/ daily MT MA↑) 1.5414/ .5429 (daily Bollinger top/ daily envelope top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
Monday, July 19, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX


EUR/CHF: (1.3590) Above Downtrendline off 1.4589 and 1.3434 (see graph)

FOREX EURCHF=EBS (1.3571, 1.3606, 1.3571, 1.3592, +0.0022)


1.4589 1.465
1.460
1.455
1.450
1.445
1.440
1.435
1.430
1.425
1.420
1.415
1.410
1.4041 1.405
1.400
1.395
1.390
1.385
1.380
1.375
1.3735 1.370
1.3623
1.365
1.360
1.355
1.350
1.3434
1.345
1.340
1.335
1.330
1.325
1.320
1.315
1.310
1.3073 1.305
1.300
1.295
20 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Below the long term daily channel bottom off 2007 high (1.3751 today).

Rebound puts the pair above Downtrendline off 1.4589 and above 1.3434 (see graph: 1st target has been met
at 1.3608): Resistance area at 1.3603 (today’s high?), ahead of 1.3623/ .3630 (current recovery high off new
low/ weekly envelope top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3653/ .3666 (daily envelope top/ daily Bollinger top): tough on 1st attempts.

Support area at 1.3510 (today’s low?), with next levels at 1.3491/ .3482 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑/
break-up hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3465 (broken weekly Short Term Moving Average↓), ahead of 1.3458/ .3444 (reac-
tion low hourly/ break-up hourly): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.3510 (see above) 1.3603 (see above)

1.3491/ .3482 (daily ST MA↑/ break-up hourly ) 1.3623/ .3630 (see above/ weekly envelope top)

1.3465/ .3444 (see above/ break-up hourly) 1.3653/ .3666 (daily envelope top/ daily Bollinger top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
Monday, July 19, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX


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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5