Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

NEXT REPORT SHOULD BE ON JULY 22

EUR/PLN: (4.1180)

FOREX EURPLN=D2, (4.1185, 4.1195, 4.1185, 4.1195, +0.0025)

4.2400 HOURLY CHARTS

4.2060
4.2050
4.20
4.1790

4.1550
4.15

4.10

4.05
4.0405

4.0120 4.00

3.9400 3.95

3.90

3.85

2010 May June July

Retested 200 Day Moving Average↓ (4.0536 today) and currently back above the daily Uptrendline off
year low (4.1076 today).
Resistance at 4.1424/ .1495 (daily Downtrendline off 4.2400/ daily envelope top), ahead of 4.1550 (cur-
rent week high + daily projection band top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 4.1707 (daily Starc top) and 4.1790/ .1801 (June 29 high/ daily Bollinger top):
tough on 1st attempts.
Support at 4.1089/ .1024 (daily Bollinger midline/ weekly envelope bottom), with next levels at 4.0952 (bro-
ken daily Medium Term Moving Average↓ + daily Short Term Moving Average↑), ahead of 4.0868/.0840
(reaction low hourly/ break-up hourly): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

4.1089/ .1024 (daily Bollinger midline/ weekly enve-

4.1424/ .1495 (see above/ daily envelope top)
lope bottom)
4.0952 (see above + daily ST MA↑) 4.1550 (current week high + daily SAR + see above)

4.0868/ .0840 (reaction low hourly/ break-up hourly) 4.1707/ .1790 (daily Starc top/June 29 high)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/HUF: (290.00) New recovery high (see graph)

FOREX EURHUF=D2, (289.940, 290.000, 289.750, 289.850, +0.250) 294

292.10 293
292
290.55
291
290
289
288
287
285.20 286
285
284
283
282
281
280
279
278
277
276
275
275.50
274
273
272
271.15 271
270
269
268
267
266
265
264
263
262
262.05
261
260

2010 May June July

Pair hit a new recovery high off year low on break of IMF talks: currently back above the Uptrendline off
262.05 (see graph): Support at 287.91/ .25 (reinstalled daily uptrendline off 262.05/ current week low), with
next levels at 286.50 (break-up weekly), ahead of 284.72 (weekly envelope bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 283.75/ .28 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑/ daily Bollinger midline): tough on 1st
attempts.

Resistance at 290.39 (daily Bollinger top), ahead of 292.10 (current week high + daily projection band top + daily
envelope top), ahead of 292.46 (monthly envelope top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next level at 292.93 (weekly envelope top), ahead of 294.50/ 295.85 (Irregular B off 260.93/ 61.8%
317.45 to 260.93): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

287.91/ .25 (see above/ current week low) 290.39 (daily Bollinger top)

292.10/ .46 (current week high + see above + daily en-

286.50 (break-up weekly)
velope top/ monthly envelope top)

292.93/ 294.50 (weekly envelope top/ Irregular C wave

284.72/ 283.75 (weekly envelope bottom/ daily ST MA↑)
off 260.93)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/RUB: (39.4750) New recovery high on move back in Flag off 37.1420 (see graph)

FOREX EURRUB=,22 (39.4840, 39.4840, 39.4350, 39.4650, -0.0050)

39.7
39.6
39.5
39.4
39.2340 39.3
39.2796
39.2
39.1
39.0
38.9
38.8
38.7
38.6
38.5
38.4
38.3
38.2
38.1
38.0
37.9
37.8975
37.8
37.7
37.6
37.5
37.4455 37.4
37.3
37.2
37.1
37.0

18 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

New recovery high on move back in Flag off year low (see graph).
1st Support at 39.4297 (daily envelope bottom), with next levels at 39.3780/ .3449 (current week low/ daily Short
Term Moving Average↑), ahead of 39.2725 (reaction low hourly) and 39.1943/ .1529 (weekly envelope bottom/ daily
Medium Term Moving Average↑), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 39.0613 (weekly Short Term Moving Average↑), ahead of 38.9395 (break-up hourly): tough
on 1st attempts.

Resistance at 39.5720 (today’s high?), with next levels at 36.6470 (current new recovery high off year low) and
39.6765 (April high), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 39.7132/ .7398 (daily Flag top off year low/ daily envelope top) and 39.8084 (daily Starc
top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

39.4297 (daily envelope bottom) 39.5720 (see above)

39.3780/ .3449 (current week low/ daily ST MA↑) 39.6470/ .6765 (current week high/ April high)

39.2725/ .1943 (see above/ weekly envelope bot-

39.7132/ .7398 (see above/ daily envelope top)
tom)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/CZK: (25.3000) Currently back below 25.4200 (see graph)

FOREX EURCZK=D2, (25.310, 25.317, 25.305, 25.310, +0.000)

26.35
26.3000
26.30
26.25
26.20
26.15
26.0800
26.10
26.05
26.00
25.95
25.90
25.85
25.80
25.75
25.70
25.65
25.60
25.55
25.50
25.45
25.4200 25.40
25.35
25.30
25.3000 25.25
25.20
25.15
25.10
25.05
25.00
25.0150
24.95

2010 May June July

Currently back below 25.4200 (see graph) and below weekly Uptrendline off low (25.4830).
Support at 25.2800/ .2700 (July 12 low/ daily envelope bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 25.2220/ .2100 (April break-up on daily charts/ see graph: channel bottom off 26.3000),
ahead of 25.1940 (daily Bollinger bottom) and 25.1690/ .1330 (daily Uptrendline off Sept 2009 low/ modified
daily Standard Error band bottom + weekly Bollinger bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance area at 25.3920 (daily Short Term Moving Average↓), with next levels at 25.4180/ .4200 (daily en-
velope top/ breakdown hourly) and 25.4950/ .5220 (daily projection band top/ current week high), where pause
favored.
If wrong, next levels at 25.5400 (daily Bollinger midline) and 25.5900/ .5990 (last week spike high?/ weekly
envelope top): tough on1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

25.2800/ .2700 (July 12 low/ daily envelope bottom) 25.3920 (daily ST MA↓)

25.2220/ .2100 (break-up daily/ see graph) 25.4180/ .4200 (daily envelop top/ see above)

25.1690/ .1330 (see above/ weekly Bollinger bottom

25.4950/ .5220 (see above/ current week high)
+ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5