Urban Water Journal

ISSN: 1573-062X (Print) 1744-9006 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/nurw20

The assessment of damage caused by floods in the

Brazilian context

N. Nascimento , M. La Machado , M. Baptista & A. De Paula E Silva

To cite this article: N. Nascimento , M. La Machado , M. Baptista & A. De Paula E Silva (2007)
The assessment of damage caused by floods in the Brazilian context, Urban Water Journal, 4:3,
195-210, DOI: 10.1080/15730620701466591

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15730620701466591

Published online: 13 Jul 2007.

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Urban Water Journal, Vol. 4, No. 3, September 2007, 195 210

The assessment of damage caused by oods in the

Brazilian context

N. NASCIMENTO, M. LEA MACHADO, M. BAPTISTA and A. DE PAULA E SILVA

Department of Hydraulics and Water Resources Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG),
Av. Contorno, 842 30110-060 Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil

The present paper describes theoretical aspects and the main results on the development
of a methodology for the global evaluation of direct damage caused by oods. This
methodology is based on the use of standard ood damage curves versus depth of
inundation on dwelling, commerce and service sectors. The research was developed based
on eld surveys in the city of Itajuba, located in the valley of the Sapuca River, in Minas
Gerais state in the southeast region of Brazil. In January 2000, this city suered severe
oods where more of 70% of the urban area was aected; with depths of inundation
higher than 3 m in certain areas. The empirical data were obtained through
questionnaires applied in the ravaged area in 2002. The questionnaires allowed the
characterization of the dwellings and their content, as well as the dierent categories on
commercial and service activities. The generic curves obtained from the data in the survey
were used at the same site to evaluate the amount of potential ood damage in relation to
dierent hydrologic risks.

Keywords: Flood damage; Depth of inundation curves versus damage; Damage

evaluation

economic eciency assessment, benet cost analysis being

1. Introduction
The importance of economic assessment of damages owing
to ooding and of economic evaluation of ood mitigation
benets relies on the fact that (a) ood mitigation
alternatives usually require high investments and (b) ood
protection is a public good. The optimal scale of ood-
control measures depends on the population beneted, its
oer is indivisible among the beneciaries and it is usually
not possible to exclude an agent from the consumption of
this good, all of them typical aspects of public goods. The
return of the capital invested in ood mitigation usually
extends to the long term, with signicant implementation
costs and marginal costs close to zero. Also, ood control
systems frequently operate with low capacity owing to the
stochastic behaviour of the hydrologic events. In fact, ood
control has public welfare characteristics.
It is therefore relevant to the decision making regarding
ood mitigation investments to dispose of tools allowing
the standard approach employed for this kind of evalua-
tion. The benet cost approach is sometimes criticized for
not taking into account the diversity of societal interests on
ood alleviation and for the signicant uncertainties related
to the process, particularly regarding the benet evaluation
phase. Nevertheless, the economic evaluation of ood
alleviation alternatives can provide relevant information
that may help decision making and is one of the basic
approaches leading to more ecient investments in this
domain. Nevertheless, the lack of systematized information
on ood damages, especially in Brazil, limits the applica-
tion of the benet cost approach, thereby restricting the
rationality of decisions on investments in ood control
measures.
The current paper presents and discusses the develop-
ment of a methodology for assessing benets of ood
alleviation measures based on the setting up of ood
damage curves. These curves relate ood damage, ex-
pressed in monetary values, to the depth of ood for

*Corresponding author. Email: niloon@ehr.ufmg.br

Urban Water Journal

ISSN 1573-062X print/ISSN 1744-9006 online 2007 Taylor & Francis
http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals
DOI: 10.1080/15730620701466591
196 N. Nascimento et al.
dierent kinds of urban land-use. Adequate to be applied at
the Brazilian context, they also incorporate an important
synthesis on potential damages caused by oods and their
utilization can be quite wide, especially in areas such as
urban planning, setting up of ood emergency plans, local
protection of vulnerable areas (e.g. by ood proong
measures), among others.
The empirical data used in the research were obtained by
a systematic survey on ood damage done in 2002 in
Itajuba an 84 000 inhabitant town located in the valley of
the Sapuca River, in the state of Minas Gerais, southeast
region of Brazil. The ood event taken as a reference for
the survey was a major ood faced by the town in January
2000.
2. Flood damage typology
Flood damages are usually classied in four classes:
tangible, intangible, direct and indirect damages, as shown
in table 1. The distinction between tangible and intangible
damages relates to the level of diculty in assigning a
monetary value to them. As an example, physical damages
caused over a construction that has been inundated can be
estimated by means of the assessment of its repairing costs.
It is, therefore, a tangible damage, even though the eective
evaluation of repairing costs can behold important
practical diculties. On the other hand, stress or anxiety
states caused by oods or by the expectation of its
occurrence are examples of damages dicult to evaluate
from a monetary perspective and are, therefore, classied as
intangible.
Direct damages result from the direct contact of ood-
waters with dwelling, business and public property being
related to the physical deterioration of these properties.
Indirect damages originate by inconveniences caused in the
productive system as a consequence of ooding events. This
can lead to the reduction of economic activities, as well as
to the lost of tax income, costs of emergency services and
civil defense, cleaning costs of the aected areas, property
value loss, raise of insurance costs whenever they exist to
cover the harm caused by the ood, unemployment or wage
reduction, among others.
Data, information and models about direct damages
caused mainly to the dwelling sector and to the commercial
and service sectors can be found within scientic literature
on this domain. For the industrial sector, the diversity in
terms of organization and the variability in terms of
technology up-date make it more dicult to obtain and
synthesize information.
Regarding the public sector, the infrastructure that can
be aected by ood damages are the physical facilities
related to health, education, sport, leisure and other public
services, as well as networks of services, such as the road
and transportation system, the electricity and water supply
services and related systems. The disruption or alteration of
such services and networks, in many of the cases, results in
damages and disturbances in other activity sectors,
frequently resulting in direct and indirect damages.
The evaluation of indirect damages is a delicate and
dicult task mainly owing to the complexity of productive
and commercialization processes where compensation
eects are common. Actually, some of the losses can be
circumstantial, owing to compensation eects taking place
among economic agents, during the period of crisis caused
by ooding, or for the same agent, along the time. For
instance, the reduction of economic activities in a damaged
area can result in the rise of the economic activities at areas
not aected by the ood and capable of supplying the
market with the same kind of products.
In the same way, certain markets, such as those of
materials for construction, grow temporarily during the
period of reconstruction. In other sectors, the reduction of
commercial activities can also be temporary, as an eect
from the temporary transference of the transactions to the
near future once that the crisis period caused by the ood is
nished. In all these cases the damage to society does not
correspond to the sum of the individual losses. This is the
case of damage assessment in terms of global social losses,
which is required when performing cost benet analysis.
Finally, indirect damages can spread out in superior areas
than those directly aected by the ood, as in the case of
perturbations caused to productive processes of industries
located in areas outside the ooded regions but dependent
on goods produced in those areas.
3. Evaluation of socioeconomic impacts resulting
from oods
The evaluation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from
oods can be done according to three dierent methodo-
logical procedures known as (a) conceptual methods, (b)
direct assessment or deterministic methods and (c) vulner-
ability analysis (Hubert and Ledoux 1999), described as
follows.
1. Conceptual methods. Conceptual methods, particularly
the hedonic price approach and the contingent valuation
are based on the concept of consumer surplus and
incorporate methods of economic analysis developed with
the aim of valuating environmental actives or damages. The
central hypothesis underlining these approaches are that
the market is capable of incorporating the risk of oods,
and therefore adequate procedures may reveal the value
ascribed by the market to this kind of risk.
Hedonic analysis is based in the hypothesis stating that
ood control is a commodity with a certain demand in
society. One may, therefore, suppose that a disposition to
pay for it exists. The approach consists in trying to identify
and quantify such willingness to pay through real estate
 Assessment of damage caused by oods in the Brazilian context 197

Typology of damages resulting from oods in urban areas (adapted from Hubert and Ledoux 1999, Dutta et al. 2003 and Penning-Rowsell and

lack of motivation; long-term health damage

market, assuming that both buyers and sellers have enough

Inconveniences owing to services interruption

Inconveniences owing to services interruption
Inconveniences owing to services interruption
information on ood risk, on direct, indirect and intangible

Psychological stress and anxiety state and

damages which result from inundations, as well as on the

Psychological stress and anxiety state;

Psychological stress and anxiety state;

Psychological stress and anxiety state;

reduction of ood risk eectively obtained with the
adoption of control measures. The dierence between
values of estates with equivalent characteristics but located
Indirect

long term health damage

long term health damage

long-term health damage

in dierent areas in respect to the risk of ooding would
reveal the inundation cost. This information may be an
Intangible damages

estimate of the benets related to the reduction of ood risk

in this area.
The contingent valuation approach is based on the
assumption that the benets of ood protection may be
directly revealed by people aected by frequent oods, on
the base of their hypothetical willingness to pay for
measures leading to a reduction on ood risk. In order to
evaluate the willingness to pay for the commodity ood

Human lives losses

Human lives losses
Human lives losses

Human lives losses

Human lives losses

Human lives losses

control, questionnaires are applied to the potential

Direct

consumers on the base of hypothetical scenarios of ood

alleviation actions.
Among the main vantages attributed to these methods it
is highlighted their capacity to incorporate the estimate of
tangible and intangible damages caused by oods. Never-
theless, both hedonic analysis and the contingent valuation
Cleaning and service interruption costs
Cleaning and service interruption costs
Cleaning and service interruption costs
Cleaning costs, household, medicines

are dicult to apply due to many uncertainties associated,

Chatterton 1977).

for example, to the memory of past oods and the ood

risk perception by the population. In this way, these
methods have been considered more frequently in the
Emergency services costs
Indirect

Loss of trading prots

Loss of trading prots

academic context.
2. Direct evaluation methods. Direct evaluation methods
Unemployment

Unemployment

focus on the elaboration of detailed and precise descrip-

Data base loss

Data base loss

Cleaning costs

Cleaning costs

tions of the impacts caused by the oods, taking in account

the inventories of damage in shattered areas (a posteriori
Tangible damages

assessment) or the construction of damage scenarios based

on a detailed denition of pathologies caused by oods
(a priori assessment). These methods are based on the
Loss or harm to stock of raw material

setting up of functional relations between ood damages

and hydraulic variables associated to inundations such as
Physical damage to the patrimony
Physical damage to the patrimony
Physical damages to the building,

Physical damages to the building,

Physical damages to the building,

Physical damages to the building,

ood depth, ood duration and ow velocity in ooded

Loss or harm to stock goods

areas. Direct evaluation encompasses direct as well as

structure and its content

structure and its content

structure and its content

structure and its content

indirect damages, although more signicant methodologi-

Direct

and nished goods

cal developments seem to have occurred for direct damage

assessment.
The construction of ood damage curves versus submer-
sion depth (FDC) is quite dicult when it is considered the
variability of the exposed damage, even for just one sector
such as the residential one. One of the most detailed
construction works of such kind of function was carried out
for England and Wales (Penning-Rowsell and Chatterton
cultural patrimony

1977) for the residential, commercial, services, industrial

Public equipment

and agriculture sectors, based on the a priori analysis of

Commerce and

Infra-structure
and services

Historical and

damages. Another more recent example is the work of

Table 1.

services

Industrial

Dutta et al. (2003).

Dwelling
Sector

3. Vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability analysis focus on

the association of the risk of ooding with potential
198 N. Nascimento et al.
damages and the available means to face the risk.
Vulnerability evaluation usually takes into account planned
anticipating actions, physical skills of exposed individuals,
nancial means to recover aected areas, the existence of
insurance coverage, etc.
The traditional approach of ood vulnerability assess-
ment employs, as indicator, the potential damages due to
oods translated into nancial terms, based in the
hypothesis that the higher costs induced by oods is
associated to the higher vulnerability of the ood prone
area. This approach has been frequently criticized as
reductionist for only considering the economic and
nancial impacts of oods and for not encompassing all
the complexity of the problem which involves important
social, political and environmental features.
More recent approaches tend to consider vulnerability as
a direct expression of the feebleness of the socioeconomic
system towards the risk of ooding. In these terms, the
assessment of a social and political vulnerability focus
mainly on identifying the tendency of the system to incur
important damages, should a major ood happens, and on
its capacity to resist and to recover form an impact of such
a nature (Hubert and Ledoux 1999). According to this
approach, vulnerability analysis is usually done based on
the use of indicators. Some examples of indicators
frequently used can be found in Hubert and Ledoux
(1999); examples of procedures to analyse vulnerability can
be found in Agence de lEau et Ministere de lAmenage-
ment du Territoire et de lEnvironnement (1998).
3.1 The assessment of ood control benets
Under cost-benet analysis of ood control measures, the
marginal cost incurred by a ood protection at a certain
level should equal the marginal social benet obtained by
that level of protection. It is, therefore, assumed that up to
certain control level (e.g. the design ood event for a given
return period), any eort to obtain supplementary reduc-
tions on risk of ooding will result in costs which are higher
than the benets of that risk reduction.
Figure 1 illustrates graphically a benet calculation
procedure of a ood control measure by using a FDC
approach. Graphics G1 and G2 are issues of hydrologic and
hydraulic analysis. G1 relates discharge in a given stream
section to exceedence probabilities, a typical issue of
frequency analysis of extreme events. G2 is a representation
of the depth-discharge function in the same stream section.
The solid line represents the actual depth-discharge
function; the dotted line illustrates a possible new function,
which could be obtained by adopting a particular ood
control action, in the present case an increase on channel
conveyance.
The G3 function is a hypothetical FDC for this area,
encompassing all kinds of direct damages. G4 is the loss
probability relationship, a function that links damages
resulting of ood events of specied frequency, expressed in
monetary values, to exceedence probability. The integral
of this function represents the expected annual value of
ood damages. In G4, the solid line represents the cost-
probability function for he present situation and the dotted
line the new cost-probability function in the case that the
ood control measure described by G2 is implemented.
The dierence of expected annual value of ood damages
obtained with the two functions represented in G4 estimates
the expected annual benet of adopting the ood control
measure under appraisal. The integral of the function
represented by the dotted line gives the residual cost
resulting from oods that exceed the control capacity of
that measure.
In the context of the cost-benet analysis, the estimation
of costs for dierent ood control alternatives is, compar-
ing with the benet appraisal, a simpler exercise. The
relevant uncertainties are associated, in the case of
structural measures to management and maintenance costs,
and for non-structural ones, emergency service costs,
system operation (ood forecasting and ood warning,
alert) and costs of setting up and maintaining diused non-
structural measures (ood proong, restoring the vegeta-
tion cover, soil erosion control, river restoring).
4. Methodology for the development of ood
damage curves
Two main approaches can be adopted for the construction
of the damage curves versus submersion depth (FDC
curves): (a) they can be developed from data synthesis over
real damage obtained by sampling on devastated areas (e.g.
Torterotot 1993), or (b) by the estimation of hypothetical
damage, a priori established, with base on expertise over the
potential eects of oods on the construction and their
content (e.g. Penning-Rowsell and Chatterton 1977).
The methodology presented in the current paper tries to
combine both approaches, considering, on the one hand, the
statement of an empirical reference for the construction of
the curves and, on the other hand, the search of general-
izations which can allow, in the future, the use of similar
curves in dierent contexts. In order to get there, the
identication of the damage occurred in an aected area,
caused by a reference ooding event, was made through the
application of questionnaires, aiming to obtain a represen-
tative sampling of the dierent reported submersion depths
for the dierent types of land use present in the area.
In the residential sector, ood damage are related,
among other factors, to the quality of the building, the
constructed area, the state of the building and its content,
characterized by the kind, quantity, quality and age of
durable exposed commodities such as furniture, electric and
ornamental devices. Considering that these factors are
 Assessment of damage caused by oods in the Brazilian context
Figure 1. Example of a hypothetical benet assessment of ood alleviation using FDC (adapted from Penning-Rowsell and
Chatterton 1977).
related to the living standards of the inhabitants it is
expected that FDC curves present a certain dependency of
this variable. It turns out to be relevant to search the
possible functional associations between FDC curves and
the factors mentioned before, which are potentially linked
to ood damage.
In the present paper, the survey was done based on the
obtained data through the application of questionnaires.
The social status of the inhabitants was obtained by the
application of the Criterio Brasil (ABIPEME 2004),
employed as an indirect indicator of welfare status. This
criterion (Criterio Brasil) adopts ve socio-economic classes
(A, B, C, D, E) in a decreasing order of welfare and living
standards based on information related to comfort house-
hold items (durable commodities) and to the education
level of the of the adults in the family.
In the present research, questionnaires were conceived in
order to allow a detailed description of damage caused by
oods on dwellings and their content. Each questionnaire is
associated to one household, which is characterized by the
building standard, ood depth and socio-economic class of
their inhabitants.
The damage on buildings is estimated from repairing
costs of damage caused by oods in the form of a
restoration budget. With the Brazilian norm NBR71721
as a base, 4 dierent levels of building standards were
established: high, normal, low and labouring class. The
building standard is classied considering the nine more
important items: type of indoor and outdoor wall covering,
kitchen and bathrooms building material, kitchen and
bathrooms accessories and the main material on windows
and doors.
199
The evaluation of the damages on the content of the
households is entirely based on a priori analysis. For each
social class, a typical dwelling project was dened based on
Brazilian standard projects of dwelling units for dierent
income rates, as well as on empirical data of the
distribution of built areas for each social class obtained
by the survey. Content standards (furniture, electric
appliances, ornamental items, etc.) were dened on the
base of social class inventories standards as well as on a
systematic research on market price distributions for
dierent household furniture and equipments. The empiri-
cal data obtained by the application of the questionnaires
allowed evaluating the adequacy of the established
standards, correcting them out when needed. The estimate
of damage to the content according to dierent submersion
depths was based in ood susceptibility curves proposed by
Penning-Rowsell and Chatterton (1977). The residual
values of the inventory items were established taking into
account their life cycle and residual values which were also
related to the social classes.
Owing to diculties of identifying damages, individually,
to all the dierent sectors of service and retail, they are
gathered in categories of similar activities, according to the
classication proposed by the CNAE (National Classica-
tion of Reference Activities) reference activities and to data
published by the Annual Commerce Survey (PAC) and by
the Annual Service Survey (PAS), both performed by
IBGE, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics.
In the development of FDC for those kinds of establish-
ments, the following damages are taken into account:
damages to the building, including several construction
components; damages to the content of the establishment,
200 N. Nascimento et al.
such as equipment (computers and other machines), oce
furniture, and exhibit as well as damages to the stock of
products. Stock is the most important source of losses
caused by oods in the commercial sector.
In the evaluation of the building damage costs concern-
ing service and retail establishments, the value of the
budget to repair every establishment is determined on the
base of information obtained with the application of
questionnaires for every surveyed establishment. These
estimates are calculated following the same procedure used
for the calculation of damages occurred to residential
buildings.
Estimates of damages to the stock are also based on
information and data obtained by the application of
questionnaires for every surveyed establishment. Question-
naire information is also used to estimate damages to other
types of content in each commercial or service establish-
ment (computers, oce furniture and exhibit products).
5. Application of the methodology in the city of
Itajuba (MG)
The city of Itajuba, located in the southeast region of
Brazil, a region with intense economic activity, has a high
Figure 2. Map of the Sapuca River Basin.
vulnerability to inundations since most of its urban area is
located on the Sapuca river ood plain. It is estimated that
almost 30 000 inhabitants of a total population of 84 135
inhabitants (IBGE 2000) are living in areas which are
frequently ooded (Lima 2003). During the last 128 years
thirteen severe inundations were registered in its urban area
(IGAM, 1999). At Itajuba, the Sapuca River Basin has a
surface of 800 km2 (gure 2).
During the peak discharge of the January 2000 event, of
which the resulting ooding is used here as a reference,
more than 70% of the urban area was ooded. In certain
areas, ood depths reached more than 3 m and the ood
duration was greater than 3 days. Four deaths were
reported and at about 20 000 people were left homeless.
The estimated return period for this event is 100 years
(Vianna et al. 2001).
The city of Itajuba was chosen for the application of the
methodology here described due to its level of development,
the diversity of its urban land use and the severity of the
2000 inundation (gure 3).
In August of 2002, 469 questionnaires were applied for
the residential sector and around 200 for the commercial,
services and industrial sectors, all of them conceived and
carried out according to the methodology here described.
 Assessment of damage caused by oods in the Brazilian context 201

A preliminary essay of associating the distribution of the
constructed area and the building quality criteria with
social classes indicates the existence of correlation between
the previous two with the last one. These results suggest the
possibility of explaining dwelling characteristics by social
classes and allow the use of the last one as a reference when
estimating ood damage, as here described.
In order to dene the sample procedure and the sample
size, a map of the 2000 event ooded was employed in
association with census data. The map, produced by the
water supply and sanitation company COPASA (COPASA
2002) allowed the identication of ood depth in each
block of the city. Census data and other information given
by the municipality of Itajuba were used as reference of the
distribution of the income level of inhabitants at each
block.
The basic a priori rule for sampling was to apply at least
two questionnaires at each block in the ooded area. The
selection of the unities to be interviewed was made, at rst,
by the free will of the interviewer, depending also on the

Figure 3. Itajuba: view of the central area during the 2000 ood (Source: Defesa Civil, 2000).

Figure 4. Itajuba: percentage of the total number of questionnaires by socio-economic class and inundation depth on the
base of 469 questionnaires applied in the dwelling sector.
202 N. Nascimento et al.

will of the householder to answer the questionnaire. In
order to avoid sampling bias, a sampling distribution
control having as basic criteria the social class of the
interviewees, the depth of inundation and the location of
dwellings in the ooded area was continuously performed
on a daily base. The sampling took three weeks, and the
daily control allowed avoiding eventual bias on sampling.
All the blocks aected by the ood were sampled.
Figure 4 illustrates the distribution sampling per ood
depths according to the socio-economic class in the
residential ooded area. This gure also illustrates the
distribution of socio-economic classes in the same area.
The similarity between these two distributions suggests the
adequacy of the sampling, even for depths higher than
2.0 m, which is rare particularly in the socio-economic
classes A and B, the richest ones, owing to their means of
avoiding risky areas. In gure 4 it is also possible to observe
the absence of the socio-economic class E, the poorest
according to the ABIPEME criteria. Class E corresponds
to people typically living in shantytowns, which are absent
to middle size cities in more developed areas of Brazil.
Based on those results and on correlations identied
between the socio-economic classes and building and
inventory characteristics, the FDC curves were developed

Figure 5. FDC for socioeconomic classes A and B: R$/Euro rate: 1.85 (January 2000).

Figure 6. FDC for socioeconomic class C: R$/Euro rate: 1.85 (January 2000).
 Assessment of damage caused by oods in the Brazilian context 203

Figure 7. FDC for socioeconomic class D: R$/Euro rate: 1.85 (January 2000).

for damages expressed in Brazilian currency R$ per surface Table 2. Sampling distribution of commerce and service
of building rst oor, in m2, for each social class. Statistical categories.
analyses (hypothesis tests, variance analysis) were carried
Sector Main activity Sample size
on in order to verify if the four curves obtained for social
classes A, B, C and D were statistically dierent. These Commerce Construction materials 16
Pharmaceutical products, 11
analyses let gathering together the damages related to
perfume and cosmetics
socio-economic classes A and B in a unique function. Libraries, paper shops 12
Individual functions were retained for socio-economic Hypermarkets and supermarkets 7
classes C and D (gures 5 to 7). (Previous results of FDC Groceries and warehouses 5
development for the Itajubas residential sector considered Bakeries and sweet shops 7
Butcheries and sh commerce 6
only two curves, gathering A B and C D socio-economic
Commerce of fruits and vegetables 7
classes (Nascimento et al. 2006). Further statistical analysis Department stores 5
lead to the development of three dierent curves for the Cloth and fabric articles 18
residential sector in Itajuba, as described in the present Shoe stores and leather products 7
paper.) Furniture, electric appliances, 14
electronic devices
Curves shown in gure 5 turned out to be a combination
Informatics equipment 3
of empirical data (damage on constructions) and of Jewelers and watches stores 5
theoretical models (damage on content). In spite of a priori Optic store 6
components on data the dispersion shown by data is rather Vehicles and motorcycles commerce 6
high, illustrating uncertainties associated to this kind of Car pieces and accessories 12
methodology. Service Hotels and bed and breakfast inns 2
FDC curves obtained present damages relatively Restaurants, coee shops and bars 13
Schools 9
high according to the inundation depth. As an example, Oces: architects, lawyers, 10
for 1.0 m. depth, supposing a residence of 100 m2 accountants, real estate
of built area, the total direct damage (building and Banks 4
content) would be approximately R$13,100.00 (7081.00 Medical oces 3
Euros of January 2000) in the case of A and B classes Personal services: beauty parlors, 5
barbershop
and of R$ 5,140.00 (2779.00 Euros of January 2000) for Dentists oce 4
D class.
The same sampling procedure employed for the residen-
tial sector was also used in the case of retail and service at
the area aected by the 2000 ood event. Table 2 shows the As previously described, some of the categories were
sample distribution according to dierent categories of the grouped according to their similar characteristics in
commerce and service sectors. terms of vulnerability of stocks and merchandises.
204 N. Nascimento et al.

Each establishment sampled was also classied according Real per unit of the built area (R$/m2), encompassing
to the size of the business. Table 3 shows the distribution of damages to the building and to its content. In all the cases
the sampled establishments according to their size. The the logarithmic function proved to be the function
classication parameter adopted was the business net providing the best adjustment to the empirical data.
income, as established by the National Commerce Register
Department (Law 9.137 of 1996).
6. Using ood damage curves in the evaluation of ood
In this manner, considering the net income criterion,
damages
micro and small enterprises categories correspond in
Itajuba to 88% of the commercial sector and nearly 80% With the aim of proposing and evaluating a complete
of the service sector. This pattern corresponds roughly to methodology for the appraisal of ood damages employing
that observed in the state of Minas Gerais, where IBGE the FDC curves previously developed, study has been
identies nearly 97% of the commercial and service developed for the city of Itajuba leading to the development
enterprises within these classications. of a probability damage relationship for this area.
FDC for some activities of commerce and service sectors In order to meet those objectives, one needs to associate
are shown in Figures 8 to 11. Logarithmic functions were information obtained by hydrologic and hydraulic model-
employed, by regression analyses, to represent empirical ling with digital terrain modelling, socio-economic and land
data total damage cost versus the inundation. The total use data from the case study area.
damage gures are expressed by the Brazilian currency By the end of the 1990s, the IGAM (Water Management
Institute of the state of Minas Gerais) decided to develop a
comprehensive study on the risk of ooding in the Sapuca
Table 3. Sampling distribution for commerce and service river basin owing to a history of frequent ood in this area.
sectors in respect to the size. IGAM signed up with Golder Associates Brasil Ltda to the
Commerce sector Service sector
development of those studies (IGAM 1999). Results of
those studies concerning ood frequency analysis (table 4)
Size Number % Size Number %
and river ow modelling are employed here for the
Micro 80 56% Micro 30 65% assessment of ood damages.
Small 46 32% Small 7 15% River ow modelling was done using the one-dimen-
Medium 17 12% Medium 9 20% sional (1D) model HEC-RAS version 2.21 (U.S. Army,
and big and big
Without 11 Without 6
Corps of Engineers 2001) which allowed the estimation of
answer answer ow levels all over the Sapuca ood plain where the
Itajuba urban area is located, according to the return
Total 154 100% Total 52 100%
periods listed in table 4.

Figure 8. FDC for the commerce sector (bakeries and sweet shops, butcheries and sh commerce, groceries): R$/Euro rate:
1.85 (January 2000).
 Assessment of damage caused by oods in the Brazilian context 205

Figure 9. FDC for the commerce sector (department stores, cloth and fabric articles, shoe stores and leather products): R$/
Euro rate: 1.85 (January 2000).

Figure 10. FDC for the service sector (schools): R$/Euro rate: 1.85 (January 2000).

A digital terrain model was developed to the Sapuca
ood plain area occupied by the urban area of Itajuba
(gure 12) on the base of a topographic map (scale 1:1000
and 1.0 m contour gap). A geographic information system
(IDRISI) was employed to describe land use and, in the
case of the residential sector, to associate socio-economic
data and ood level with the corresponding ood damage
curves.
IBGE surveys are conducted according to a particular
spatial partition called census sectors. The surface of a
particular census sector depends on population density and
is stated by IBGE essentially by taking into account
practical aspects of the census application. In areas with a
high population density, the census sectors are smaller. All
the census data are processed, organized and published
by IBGE using the census sectors as spatial reference.
Figure 13 illustrates the borders of the 88 census sectors
concerning the Itajuba urban area. In this gure, grey areas
correspond to the present urban land-use at Itajuba.
In order to identify the social-economic class distribution
at each census sector, the basic information employed was
the distribution of income of the person considered the
206 N. Nascimento et al.

Figure 11. FDC for the service sector (banks, medical, architect, lawyer and accountant oces): R$/Euro rate: 1.85
(January 2000).

responsible for the dwelling. The person responsible for the Table 4. Runo ood frequency analysis in the Sapuca river,
dwelling is a reference adopted by IBGE for socio- at Itajuba (IGAM 1999).
economic surveys and income studies. In this research, a Return Average daily Peak
study on the relationship between the income of the person periods (years) maximum discharge (m3/s) discharge (m3/s)
responsible for the dwelling and the socio-economic
2 124 167
classication according to the ABIPEME criteria was done 5 169 228
to allow the adequate use of the FDC for the residential 10 199 268
sector (Machado 2005). 25 236 319
At each census sector, the number of dwellings corre- 50 264 357
sponding to each socio-economic class was obtained on the 100 292 394
base of 2000 census data. The estimation of ood damages
incurred by the residential sector at each census sector was,
then, done combining the following information: dispersedly located at the urban area could not be
integrated to the damage assessment, owing to the absence
(a) the distribution of households according to the socio- of adequate information. Nevertheless, after information of
economic class; the municipal administration, the number of those estab-
(b) the distribution of the built surface of households lishments is small when compared with the commercial and
according to the socio-economic class; service areas of Itajuba.
(c) the distribution of inundation depths at the census Information regarding the number of establishments,
sector; kind of activity and the size came from the IBGE database
(d) the ood-damage curves illustrated in gure 5. concerning a survey done in the area in 2001. Without any
other detailed information, the number of establishments
A similar procedure was employed for the estimation of was considered homogenously distributed in the dened
damages to the commerce and service sectors. However, in commercial and service area.
this case, spatial data on the distribution of type and size of The distribution of ood depths in the urban area of
establishments are not available. Therefore, a particular Itajuba was obtained after hydraulic simulation combined
survey had to be done at Itajuba leading to the identica- with the DTM of the oodplain processed with a GIS
tion and location of commercial and service activities. (IDRISI). The images of the ooded area for each of the
Information on this subject furnished by the City Council six return period simulated events were ltered in order
and by the local business association helped to locate the to obtain only the information related to the eectively
Itajuba areas that concentrate the majority of the urban inundated area. Depths were divided at intervals
commerce and service sectors (gure 14). Business activities of 0.25 m up to 2.00 m and 0.50 m for depth intervals
 Assessment of damage caused by oods in the Brazilian context 207

bigger than 2.00 m. Figures 15 and 16 illustrate maps of

ooded areas and depth distribution for events having
return periods of 10 and 100 years, respectively. In these
gures, the red line represents the borders of the Itajuba
urban area.
7. Determining the annual average value of the economic
damage costs
In order to obtain the loss probability relationship
for Itajuba, damages were estimated for events with

Figure 12. Digital terrain model of the city of Itajuba.

Figure 13. Borders of the census sectors in the city of Itajuba. Grey spots indicate urban areas.
208 N. Nascimento et al.

Figure 14. Commercial and service areas (dashed) of Itajuba.

Figure 15. Distribution of inundation depths at the urban area of Itajuba for the return period T 10 years.
 Assessment of damage caused by oods in the Brazilian context 209

Figure 16. Distribution of inundation depths at the urban area of Itajuba for the return period T 100 years.

Table 5. Estimation of damages due to oods in Itajuba for events with dierent return periods.

Damage costs
Return Exceedance
3
period (years) probability (year71) Peak runo (m /s) Households (R$) Commerce (R$) Services (R$) Total (R$)

2 0.5 167 9 280 954 3 688 912 535 126 13 504 992
5 0.2 228 38 505 726 16 953 612 2 530 685 57 990 023
10 0.1 268 50 940 937 25 360 528 3 417 518 79 718 983
25 0.04 319 68 217 439 40 217 351 5 308 638 113 743 428
50 0.02 357 78 331 169 51 454 750 6 251 045 136 036 964
100 0.01 394 84 158 918 57 371 254 6 932 405 148 462 577

return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years.

The methodology described above allowed the
estimates, which are listed in table 5 and illustrated by
gure 17.
The average annual benet gure was estimated
through the calculation of the area under the
loss-probability relationship. This gure is R$29,766,676,
which corresponds to near 6% of the gross internal
product (GIP) of Itajuba. This may be considered a
high value since only direct damages to the
residential, commercial and service sectors were
estimated. The 2000 event, with a return period
estimated in 100 years, might have resulted in R$ 148
millions losses, which represents nearly 30% of the Itajuba Figure 17. Loss probability relationship for Itajuba: R$/
GIP. Euro rate: 1.85 (January 2000).
210 N. Nascimento et al.
8. Conclusions
The evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts caused by
oods constitutes an important source of information
related to damages, the performance and the eciency of
public institutions and private organizations to face ood
crisis and post-crisis as well as on the alternatives and
opportunities of risk and losses reduction, having as an
origin that kind of event.
Among the methodologies to appraise ood impacts, the
FDCs are a well adapted tool to estimate costs imposed by
direct ood impacts and to be employed in benet-cost
analysis of ood control alternatives. FDC may also be
useful as indicators for vulnerability, in economic terms,
and by this way, they may contribute to the development of
urban policy management, as for example:
(a) improvement of urban management instruments
considering ooding risks, such as the urban master
plans, urban zone division and land use laws, which
should incorporate ooding risk;
(b) improvement of instruments for crisis management
through the elaboration of emergency plans and the
perfectionning of the means of civil defence actions;
(c) improvement of methodologies to analyze ood risk
and vulnerability.
The present article described a methodology to develop and
apply FDC curves in Brazil, using a case study, the city of
Itajuba, Minas Gerais. From the scientic perspective, the
methodology and results illustrate the possibilities of using
this kind of ood damage appraisal method in Brazil on the
base of information and data usually available in this
country. From the practical point of view, application of
those curves for the evaluation of ood control alternatives
in the future may become an important aid instrument for
decision making. Results of those future applications will
certainly contribute to a better evaluation on uncertainties
associated to the methodology and possibly allow, by this
way, future improvements.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to express thanks to the Conselho
Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientco e Tecnologico
(CNPq), to the Instituto Mineiro de Gestao das Aguas
(IGAM), and to the Fundacao de Ampara a Pesquisa do
Estado de Minas Gerais, for their nancial support to this
research. They also thank the Civil Defence Itajuba, and to
Federal Universities of Minas Gerais and Itabuba UFMG
undergraduate and graduate students who contributed to
the Itajuba survey.
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