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The yield on the 10-Year note remains within the range of my annual pivot at 2.999 and my
annual risky level at 2.813. Gold bounces off $1175 after strength last week failed just below my
semiannual pivot at $1218.7. Crude oil continues to yoyo around my annual pivot at $77.05. The
euro is finding a barrier at 1.30. A daily close below my weekly pivot at 10,019 would be a
problem for stocks. More troubling housing and employment data! If you are in NYC on Monday,
August 9th come to my presentation at Bloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM.
10-Year Note – (2.937) My weekly value level is 3.013 with my annual pivot at 2.999 and annual risky
level at 2.813. Semiannual and quarterly value levels are 3.479 and 3.486 with quarterly and
semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249. The low yield for the move was 2.879 set on July 1st,
and was a failed test of my 2.999 and 2.813 annual risky levels.
Comex Gold – ($1192.0) My quarterly and annual value levels are $1140.9 and $1115.2 with daily and
semiannual pivots at $1201.0 and $1218.7, and semiannual, weekly and monthly risky levels at
$1260.8, $1264.3 and $1279.3. The all time high of $1266.5 set on June 21st was a test of June’s
monthly resistance, as a significant top for gold.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude Oil – ($77.44) Still influenced by my annual pivot at $77.05 with monthly, and weekly
risky levels at $79.36 and $79.87. My quarterly value level is $56.63 with semiannual risky level at
$83.94.
The Euro – (1.2884) My weekly value level is 1.2366 with a daily pivot at 1.2914, and the 200-day
simple moving average at 1.3664. Monthly and quarterly value levels are 1.2035 and 1.1424 with
semiannual risky level at 1.4733. Beware of a potential key reversal.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Daily Dow: (10,154) This week’s pivot is 10,019 with daily and annual pivots at 10,353 and 10,379,
and semiannual and monthly risky levels at 10,558 and 10,891. My quarterly value level is 7,812 with
my annual risky level at 11,235, which was tested at the April 26th high at 11,258. This test marked the
end of the bear market rally that began in March 2009. We are in the second leg of the multi-year bear
market that began in October 2007 targeting 8,500 before 11,500. My zone of weekly pivots for the
Major equity averages have been magnets: 10,019 Dow, 1061.3 SPX, 2193 NASDAQ, 4163
Transports, and 618.68 Russell 2000.
To attend please reply to rsuttmeier@gmail.com and include: first and last name, company name,
address, email and phone number so that you can be pre-registered into the Bloomberg security
systems for this event.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
www.ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I
have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as
well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the
ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sample
issues of my research.