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PEW RESEARCH CENTER
11:00 a.m. EDT, April 25, 2017

U.S. unauthorized immigrant population in 2015 dips below


recession level
amid ongoing
Estimated unauthorized immigrant population in the
decline from U.S. lower in 2015 than in 2009
Mexico In millions

By Jeffrey S. Passel and 14


12.2
DVera Cohn 12 11.1
11.5 11.1
10.1
9.4 11.3 11.3
The number of unauthorized 10 11.0
8.6
immigrants living in the 8
United States in 2015 fell 5.7
below the total at the end of 6

the Great Recession for the 3.5


4
first time, with Mexicans
continuing to represent a 2

declining share of this


0
population, according to new 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2016
2015
Pew Research Center
Note: Shading surrounding line indicates low and high points of the estimated 90%
estimates based on confidence interval. The 2009-2016 change is not statistically significant at 90%
confidence interval. Data labels are for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007,
government data. 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016. The 2016 estimate is preliminary.
Source: Pew Research Center estimates for 2005-2015 based on augmented American
Community Survey data (IPUMS); for 2016 and 1995-2004 based on March Supplements
There were 11 million of the Current Population Survey. Estimates for 1990 from Warren and Warren (2013).
unauthorized immigrants
living in the U.S. in 2015, a PEW RESEARCH CENTER

small but statistically


significant decline from the Centers estimate of 11.3 million for 2009, the last year of the Great
Recession. The Centers preliminary estimate of the unauthorized immigrant population in 2016 is
11.3 million, which is statistically no different from the 2009 or 2015 estimates and comes from a
different data source with a smaller sample size and a larger margin of error. This more recent
preliminary data for 2016 are inconclusive as to whether the total unauthorized immigrant
population continued to decrease, held steady or increased.

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Unauthorized immigrants
include those who enter the
country without legal
permission and those who
overstay their legal visas.
Declines in the number of
unauthorized immigrants are
due to people who are
deported, leave voluntarily,
convert to lawful status or, in
a small number of cases, die.

Mexicans have long been the


largest origin group among
unauthorized immigrants
and the majority for at least a
decade - but their numbers
have been shrinking since
peaking at 6.9 million, or
57% of the total, in 2007. In
2014, they numbered 5.8
million (52% of the total). In
2015, according to the
Centers new estimate, they
declined to 5.6 million, or 51% of the total. And in 2016, according to the Centers preliminary
estimate, the number of unauthorized immigrants from Mexico was the same, but their share fell
to 50% of the total, marking the first time since at least 2005 that Mexicans did not account for a
majority of the unauthorized immigrant population.

As the number of Mexicans has decreased, the number of unauthorized immigrants from other
parts of the world has increased. The estimated number from countries other than Mexico
declined from 5.3 million in 2007 to 5 million in 2009, but grew after that, reaching 5.4 million in
2015 and 5.7 million in the preliminary 2016 estimate.

Central America and Asia are the second and third most common birth regions for unauthorized
immigrants in the U.S., after Mexico. From 2009 to 2015, the number of unauthorized immigrants

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from both regions increased (including a


Estimated unauthorized immigrant total
from Mexico declines, but rises from Asia and
rise in the Asian total from 1.4 million in
Central America since 2009
2014 to 1.5 million in 2015). The
In thousands
estimated number of unauthorized
immigrants from South America declined 2015 2009 Change*
Latin America
somewhat from 2009 to 2015, and there
Mexico 5,550 6,350 -800
was no statistically significant change in Central America 1,800 1,600 +180
the populations of unauthorized South America 650 725 -90
immigrants from other regions. (Because Caribbean 425 400 N.S.
of the smaller sample size and larger Other regions
margin of error in the 2016 data, the Asia 1,500 1,300 +220
Europe, Canada 550 550 N.S.
estimates for regions other than Mexico
Middle East 130 110 N.S.
do not yield meaningful comparisons.)
Africa 250 200 N.S.

The Centers 2016 preliminary estimates U.S. total 11,000 11,300 -375
are based on census data from March *Each number in this chart is rounded based on a set of specified rules.
Subtracting the 2009 total from the 2015 total for any region may produce a
2016, in the last year of President Barack different result than shown in the change column because of this rounding.
Obamas second term. Because these The number in the change column is the more precise estimate of
difference.
estimates date from before President Note: Asia includes South and East Asia. Europe includes all central Asian
Donald Trump took office in January, republics of the former Soviet Union. The Middle East includes Southwest
Asia and North Africa; Africa refers to sub-Saharan Africa only. U.S. total
they do not account for the impact of any includes a residual from other nations that is not shown. Significant changes
are based on 90% confidence interval. The symbol N.S. means the
of his announced policy changes, measured change is not statistically different from zero.
including promises of expanded border Source: Pew Research Center estimates for 2009 and 2015 based on
augmented American Community Survey (IPUMS).
protection and increased actions against
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unauthorized immigrants.

However, a more recent data source about unauthorized immigration the number of
apprehensions at the Southwest border fell in January, February and March after ticking upward
last spring and fall, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection statistics. Meanwhile, in a
potential sign of the changing makeup of the unauthorized immigrant population, there were more
apprehensions of non-Mexicans than Mexicans in fiscal 2016 for just the second time on record
(the first was in fiscal 2014).

Despite its recent decline, the estimated unauthorized immigrant population remains more than
triple its size in 1990, when it was about 3.5 million. The unauthorized immigrant population rose
rapidly after that, peaking at 12.2 million in 2007, before falling during the Great Recession during
2007-2009 and then levelling off, as declines in unauthorized immigrant totals from Mexico and a
rise from other countries kept the total roughly in balance.

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Pew Research Center estimates are derived from data collected by the U.S. Census Bureaus
American Community Survey and Current Population Survey. The Current Population Survey is
used when American Community Survey data are not available. To arrive at its estimate, the
Center uses census data to estimate the size of the foreign-born population (adjusted for
undercount); subtracts the estimated number of lawful immigrants from the total; and then uses
the residual to estimate the size and characteristics of the unauthorized immigrant population.
This is called the residual method.

The 2016 estimate is considered preliminary because it is derived from the Current Population
Survey, which has a larger margin of error due to its smaller sample size (about 70,000
households in the March 2016 data used in these estimates) compared with the American
Community Survey (which had a 2015 sample size of about 1.3 million households). All other
Center estimates since 2005 are derived from the American Community Survey.

The estimates for 2013 and later include about 10% of unauthorized immigrants who have been
granted temporary protection under Obamas 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals
program and the federal governments Temporary Protected Status program for immigrants
potentially affected by disease, natural disaster or conflict in their home countries.

The Center estimates that, since 2009, there have been an average of about 350,000 new
unauthorized immigrants each year added to the total, including about 100,000 Mexicans. Before
the Great Recession, Mexicans represented about half of new unauthorized immigrants.

Earlier Center research found that a rising share of unauthorized immigrants has lived in the U.S.
for a decade or more, as new illegal immigration has slowed. In 2014, 66% of unauthorized
immigrants had lived in the U.S. for at least 10 years, compared with 41% in 2005. Only 14% in
2014 had lived in the U.S. for less than five years, compared with 31% in 2005.

In a related trend, unauthorized immigrants also are increasingly likely to live with children born
in the U.S. Pew Research Center estimates that in 2014, 4 million unauthorized-immigrant adults,
or 39%, lived with their U.S.-born children, either minors or adults. In 2000, 2.1 million
unauthorized-immigrant adults, or 30%, lived with their U.S.-born children. (The total number of
unauthorized immigrants with adult or minor children born in the U.S. may well be higher, as
these figures do not count those whose children live in another household.)

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