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BASICPROBABILITY
1.0INTRODUCTION
Probabilityconceptsarefamiliartoeveryone.Theweatherforecasterstatesthattheprobability
ofraintomorrowistwentypercent.Attheracetrack,theoddsarethreetoonethatacertain
horsewillwinthefifthrace.Relatingprobabilityconceptstomanufacturingoperationsmaynot
beasfamiliarastheaboveexamples,buttheyworkthesameway.Probabilityisthekeyto
assessingtherisksinvolvedinthedecisionmakingprocess.Thegamblingcasinosdetermine
theprobabilitiesforeachgameofchancethenmaketherulessothattheoddsarealwaysin
theirfavor.Thesamecanbedoneformanufacturedproducts.Theprobabilityofacertain
numberofdefectivepartsinalargelotcanbedetermined.Also,thepercentageofpartswithin
acertaindimensionrangecanbepredicted.Ifthedesiredresultsarenotobtained,then
adjustmentstotheprocesscanbemade.Adjustmentstoaprocessinamanufacturing
operationareanalogoustochangingtherulesinacasinogame.Theobjectiveistoobtainthe
desiredresults.
Sinceamajorportionofstatisticalqualitycontrolandstatisticalprocesscontroldealswith
probabilityconcepts,itisimportanttohaveagoodknowledgeofprobability.Inamanufacturing
operation,thereareveryfewoccasionswhencompleteinformationisavailable.Therefore,
informationmustbegeneralizedfromsamplesandlimitedknownfacts.Itissometimes
surprisingtodiscoverthevastamountofinformationandknowledgeaboutaprocessthatcan
beobtainedfromarelativelysmallamountofdata.Probabilityisthebuildingblockofstatistics
andstatisticalqualitycontrol.
2.0EVENTS
Aneventisdefinedasanyoutcomethatcanoccur.Therearetwomaincategoriesofevents:
DeterministicandProbabilistic.
Adeterministiceventalwayshasthesameoutcomeandispredictable100%ofthe
time.
Distancetraveled=timexvelocity
Thespeedoflight
Thesunrisingintheeast
JamesBondwinningthefightwithoutascratch
Aprobabilisticeventisaneventforwhichtheexactoutcomeisnotpredictable
100%ofthetime.
Thenumberofheadsintentossesofacoin
ThewinneroftheWorldSeries
ThenumberofgamesplayedinaWorldSeries
Thenumberofdefectsinabatchofproduct
Inaboxingmatchtheremaybethreepossibleevents.(Therecouldbemoredependingonthe
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questionasked.)
FighterAwins
FighterBwins
Draw
2.1FourBasicTypesofEvents
MutuallyExclusiveEvents:Theseareeventsthatcannotoccuratthesametime.The
causeofmutuallyexclusiveeventscouldbeaforceofnatureoramanmadelaw.Being
twentyfiveyearsoldandalsobecomingpresidentoftheUnitedStatesaremutually
exclusiveeventsbecausebylawthesetwoeventscannotoccuratthesametime.
ComplementaryEvents:Theseareeventsthathavetwopossibleoutcomes.The
probabilityofeventAplustheprobabilityofA'equalsone.P(A)+P(A')=1.AnyeventA
anditscomplementaryeventA'aremutuallyexclusive.Headsortailsinonetossofa
coinarecomplementaryevents.
IndependentEvents:Thesearetwoormoreeventsforwhichtheoutcomeofonedoes
notaffecttheother.Theyareeventsthatarenotdependentonwhatoccurredpreviously.
Eachtossofafaircoinisanindependentevent.
ConditionalEvents:Theseareeventsthataredependentonwhatoccurredpreviously.
Iffivecardsaredrawnfromadeckoffiftytwocards,thelikelihoodofthefifthcardbeing
anaceisdependentontheoutcomeofthefirstfourcards.
3.0PROBABILITY
Probabilityisdefinedasthechancethataneventwillhappenorthelikelihoodthataneventwill
happen.
Thedefinitionofprobabilityis
Thefavorableeventsaretheeventsofinterest.Theyaretheeventsthatthequestionis
addressing.Thetotaleventsareallpossibleeventsthatcanoccurrelevanttothequestion
asked.Inthisdefinition,favorablehasnothingtodowithsomethingbeingdefectiveornon
defective.
Whatistheprobabilityofaheadoccurringinonetossofacoin?
Thenumberoffavorableeventsis1(onehead)andthenumberoftotaleventsis2(heador
tail).Inthiscase,theprobabilityformulaverifieswhatisobvious.
Probabilitynumbersalwaysrange
from0to1indecimalsorfrom0to100inpercentages.
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3.1NotationforProbabilityQuestions
Insteadofwritingoutthewholequestion,thefollowingnotationisused.
WhatistheprobabilityofeventAoccurring?=Probability(A)=P(A)
WhatistheprobabilityofeventsAandBoccurring?=P(AandB)=P(A)and
P(B)
WhatistheprobabilityofeventsAorBoccurring?=P(AorB)=P(A)orP(B)
3.2ProbabilityinTermsofAreas
Probabilitymayalsobedefinedintermsofareasratherthanthenumberofevents.
Example1
Aplanedropsaparachutistatrandomonasevenbyfivemilefield.Thefieldcontainsa
twobyonemiletargetasshownbelow.Whatistheprobabilitythattheparachutistwill
landinthetargetarea?Assumethattheparachutistdropsrandomlyanddoesnotsteer
theparachute.
4.0METHODSTODETERMINEPROBABILITYVALUES
Therearethreemajormethodsusedtodetermineprobabilityvalues.
SubjectiveProbability:Thisisaprobabilityvaluebasedonthebestavailable
knowledgeormaybeaneducatedguess.Examplesarebettingonhorse
races,selectingstocksormakingproductmarketingdecisions.
PrioriProbability:Thisisaprobabilityvaluethatcanbedeterminedpriorto
anyexperimentationortrial.Forexample,theprobabilityofobtainingatailin
tossingacoinonceisfiftypercent.Thecoinisnotactuallytossedtodetermine
thisprobability.Itissimplyobservedthattherearetwofacestothecoin,one
ofwhichistailsandthatheadsandtailsareequallylikely.
EmpiricalProbability:Thisisaprobabilityvaluethatisdeterminedby
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experimentation.Anexampleofthisisamanufacturingprocesswhereafter
checkingonehundredparts,fivearefounddefective.Ifthesampleofone
hundredpartswasrepresentativeofthetotalpopulation,thentheprobabilityof
findingadefectivepartis.05(5/100).Thequestionmaybeasked:Howisit
knownthatthissampleisrepresentativeofthetotalpopulation?Ifrepeated
trialsaverage.05defective,withlittlevariationbetweentrials,thenitcanbe
saidthattheempiricalprobabilityofadefectivepartis.05.
5.0MULTIPLICATIONTHEOREM
Themultiplicationtheoremisusedtoanswerthefollowingquestions:
Whatistheprobabilityoftwoormoreeventsoccurringeithersimultaneously
orinsuccession?
FortwoeventsAandB:WhatistheprobabilityofeventAandeventB
occurring?
Theindividualprobabilityvaluesaresimplymultipliedtoarriveattheanswer.Theword"and"is
thekeywordthatindicatesmultiplicationoftheindividualprobabilities.Themultiplication
theoremisapplicableonlyiftheeventsareindependent.Itisnotvalidwhendealingwith
conditionalevents.Theproductoftwoormoreprobabilityvaluesyieldstheintersectionor
commonareaoftheprobabilities.TheintersectionisillustratedbytheVenndiagramsinsection
11.0ofthischapter.Mutuallyexclusiveeventsdonothaveanintersectionorcommonarea.
Theprobabilityoftwoormoremutuallyexclusiveeventsisalwayszero.
Formutuallyexclusiveevents:
P(A)andP(B)=0
Forindependentevents:
Probability(AandB)=P(A)andP(B)=P(A)XP(B)
Formultipleindependentevents,themultiplicationformulaisextended.Theprobabilitythatfive
eventsA,B,C,DandEoccuris
P(A)andP(B)andP(C)andP(D)andP(E)=P(A)xP(B)xP(C)xP(D)xP(E)
Example2
Whatistheprobabilityofgettingaraiseandthatthesunwillshinetomorrow?
Given:Probabilityofgettingaraise=P(r)=.10
Probabilityofthesunshining=P(s)=.30
Theeventsareindependent.
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P(raise)andP(sunshine)=P(r)xP(s)=.10x.30=.03or3%
6.0ADDITIONTHEOREM
Theadditiontheoremisusedtoanswerthefollowingquestions:
Whatistheprobabilityofoneeventoranothereventorbotheventsoccurring?
WhatistheprobabilityofeventAoreventBoccurring?
Theword"or"indicatesadditionoftheindividualprobabilities.Theanswerstotheabove
questionsaredifferentdependingonwhethertheeventsaremutuallyexclusiveorindependent.
Mutuallyexclusiveeventsdonothaveanintersectionorcommonarea.Theindividual
probabilitiesaresimplyaddedtoarriveattheanswer.Formutuallyexclusiveevents:
P(AorB)=P(A)orP(B)=P(A)+P(B)
P(AorBorCorD)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)+P(D)
Fortwoindependentevents,theintersectingorcommonareamustbesubtractedoritwillbe
includedtwice.(RefertotheVenndiagraminsection11.0).
Probability(AorB)=P(A)orP(B)=P(A)+P(B)P(AXB)
Forthreeindependentevents:
P(AorBorC)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)P(AXB)P(AXC)P(BXC)+P(AXBXC)
Example3
Whatistheprobabilityofgettingaraiseorthatthesunwillshinetomorrow?
Given:Probabilityofgettingaraise=P(r)=.10
Probabilityofthesunshining=P(s)=.30
P(raise)orP(sunshine)=P(r)orP(s)=P(rors)
P(rors)=P(r)+P(s)[P(r)xP(s)]=.10+.30[.10X.30]=.40.03=.37or37%
Theword"and"isassociatedwiththemultiplicationtheoremandtheword"or"is
associatedwiththeadditiontheorem.
7.0COUNTINGTECHNIQUESPERMUTATIONSANDCOMBINATIONS
Permutationsandcombinationsaresimplymathematicaltoolsusedforcounting.Inmany
cases,itmaybecumbersometocountthenumberoffavorableeventsorthenumberoftotal
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eventswhensolvingprobabilityproblems.Permutationsandcombinationshelpsimplifythe
task.
7.1Permutations
Apermutationisanarrangementofthings,objectsoreventswheretheorderisimportant.
Telephonenumbersarespecialpermutationsofthenumerals0to9whereeachnumeral
maybeusedmorethanonce.Theorderdefineseachuniquetelephonenumber.
Inthefollowingexample,itisassumedthateachobjectisuniqueandcannotbeused
morethanonce.ThelettersA,B,andCmaybearrangedinthefollowingways:
ABCBACCAB
ACBBCACBA
Thisisanorderedarrangement,becauseABCisdifferentthanBCA.Sincetheorderof
thelettersmakesadifference,eacharrangementisapermutation.Fromtheabove
example,Itisconcludedthattherearesixpermutationsthatcanbemadefromthree
objects.Thegeneralformulaforpermutationsis
nPr=
n=Thetotalobjectstoarrange
r=Thenumberofobjectstakenfromthetotaltobeusedinthearrangements
Bydefinition:0!=1and1!=1
Example4
UsingthepermutationformulaandthethreelettersA,BandC,howmanypermutations
canbemadeusingallthreeletters?
Example5
Howmanypermutationscanbemadebyusingtwooutofthethreeletters?
Thepermutationsare
ABBABC
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ACCACB
Example6
Therearethreedifferentassemblyoperationstobeperformedinmakingacertainpart.
Thereareninepeopleworkingonthefloor.Howmanydifferentassemblycrewscanbe
formed?
Thismaybestatedasthenumberofpermutationsthatcanbemadefromnineobjects
usedthreeatatime.
7.2Combinations
Acombinationisagroupingorarrangementofobjectswheretheorderdoesnotmakea
difference.
ThearrangementofthelettersABCisthesameasBCA.Thenumberofcombinations
thatcanbemadebyusingthreeletters,threeatatime,isone.Thiscanbeexpandedto
statethatthenumberofcombinationsthatcanbemadebyusingnletters,natatime,is
one.AhandoffivecardsconsistingofaJack,aQueen,aKing,andtwoAcesisthesame
asaQueen,twoAces,aJackandaKing.Theorderinwhichthecardswerereceived
makesnodifference.Thereisonlyonecombinationthatcanbemadebyusingfivecards,
fiveatatime.
Theformulaforcombinationsis
n=Totalobjectstoarrange
r=Numberofobjectstakenfromthetotaltobeusedinthearrangements
Thesymbolfornumberofcombinationsisoftenshownas
Whenthesymbolappearsinaformula,thenumberofcombinationsistobecomputed
usingthecombinationformula.
Example7
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FromthethreelettersA,BandC,howmanycombinationscanbemadebyusingtwoout
ofthethreeletters?
Thecombinationsare
ABACBC
BAisthesameasAB
CAisthesameasAC
CBisthesameasBC
Example8
Tenpartshavebeenmanufactured.Twopartsaretobeinspectedforacriticaldimension.
Howmanydifferentsamplearrangementscanbemade?
Ifthepartsarelabeled1to10,thenparts1and5makeonearrangement,parts3and7
makeanother,6and8another,etc.Thelistingofthevariousarrangementscanbe
completedandtotalarrangementscounted.Thecombinationformulacanperformthis
taskandsaveaconsiderableamountoftime.
Thetotalarrangementsorcombinationsthatcanbemade:
Thepermutationandcombinationformulasareveryusefultoolsinevaluatingandsolving
probabilityproblems.Itisoftennecessarytocountthenumberoffavorableandtotal
eventsthatcanoccur.Withoutthesecountingtechniques,thiswouldbeavery
cumbersomeandsometimesimpossibletask.
8.0PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONS
Probabilitydistributionsandtheirassociatedformulasandtablesallowustosolveawide
varietyofproblemsinalogicalmanner.Probabilitydistributionsareclassifiedasdiscreteor
continuous.Threediscretedistributionswillbereviewedinthischapter.Continuous
distributionsarecoveredinthenextchapter.Probabilitydistributionsareusedtogenerate
samplingplans,predictyields,arriveatprocesscapabilities,determinetheoddsingamesof
chanceandmanyotherapplications.
Thethreediscretedistributionsthatwillbereviewed:
TheHypergeometricProbabilityDistribution
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TheBinomialProbabilityDistribution
ThePoissonProbabilityDistribution
Oneofthemostdifficulttasksforabeginningstudentinprobabilityistoknowwhichdistribution
orformulatouseforaspecificproblem.Aroadmapisgiveninsection10.0ofthischapterto
assistinthetask.
Thequalityengineermaybeaskedtocalculatetheprobabilityofthenumberofdefectsorthe
numberofdefectiveunitsinasample.Thereisadifferencebetweenthetwophrases.Adefect
isanindividualfailuretomeetarequirement.Adefectiveunitisaunitofproductthatcontains
oneormoredefects.Manydefectscanoccurononedefectiveunit.
8.1TheHypergeometricProbabilityDistribution
Thehypergeometricdistributionisthebasicdistributionofprobability.Thehypergeometric
probabilityformulaissimplythenumberoffavorableeventsdividedbythenumberoftotal
events.Itcanbedescribedasthetruebasicprobabilitydistributionofattributes.Touse
thehypergeometricformula,thefollowingvaluesmustbeknown.
N=Thetotalnumberofitemsinthepopulation(lotsize)
n=Thenumberofitemstobeselectedfromthepopulation(samplesize)
A=Thenumberinthepopulationhavingagivencharacteristic
B=Thenumberinthepopulationhavinganothercharacteristic
a=ThenumberofAthatisdesiredtooccur
b=ThenumberofBthatisdesiredtooccur
Thehypergeometricprobabilityformulais
Example9
Anurncontainsfifteenballs,fiveredandtengreen.Whatistheprobabilityofobtaining
exactlytworedandthreegreenballsindrawingfiveballswithoutreplacement?
Thisquestionmayalsobestatedas:
Whatistheprobabilityofobtainingtworedballs?
Whatistheprobabilityofobtainingthreegreenballs?
Allthreequestionsarethesame.Whensettinguptheproblem,alleventsmustbe
consideredregardlessofhowthequestionisasked.
Inthiscase,theprobabilityofasingleeventisnotconstantfromtrialtotrial.Thisisthe
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sameassamplingwithoutreplacement.Theoutcomeoftheseconddrawwillbeaffected
bywhatwasobtainedonthefirstdraw.Thenumberoffavorableeventsandthenumber
oftotaleventsmustbecomputed.
Thenumberofwaysthatredballsmaybeselected:
Thenumberofwaysthatgreenballsmaybeselected:
Thetotalnumberofwaystoselectasampleoffiveballsfromapopulationoffifteenballs:
Thisisaspecificapplicationofthehypergeometricprobabilityformula.Manysimilar
problemsmaybesolvedusingthismethod.Tousethehypergeometricformula,the
populationmustbesmallenoughsothatthenumberofitemswiththecharacteristicsin
questioncanbedetermined.
Example10
Aboxcontainstenassembliesofwhichtwoaredefective.Asampleofthreeassemblies
isselectedatrandom.Whatistheprobabilitythatthetwodefectivepartswillbeselected?
(Forthistooccurtheremustbetwodefectivepartsandonegoodpartinthesample.)
8.2TheBinomialProbabilityDistribution
Thebinomialprobabilityformulaisusedwheneventsareclassifiedintwowayssuchas
good/defective,red/green,go/nogo,etc.TheprefixBimeanstwo.Theeventsortrials
mustbeindependent.Whenthebinomialformulaisused,itisassumedthatthelotsizeis
infiniteandtheprobabilityofasinglesuccessisconstantfromtrialtotrial.
Thebinomialprobabilityformulaisbeusedtoanswerthefollowingquestion:Whatisthe
probabilityofxsuccessesinntrialswheretheprobabilityofasinglesuccessisp?.
Thebinomialformulais
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Example11
Acoinistossedfivetimes.(Thisisthesameasasamplesizeoffive).Whatisthe
probabilityofobtainingexactlytwoheadsinthefivetosses?
Itisknown,bypriorknowledge,thattheprobabilityofasinglesuccess(probabilityofa
headinonetossofacoin)isfiftypercent.Thequestionislookingfortwosuccessesor
twoheadsinfivetossesofacoin.Asuccessistheoutcomethatisdesiredtooccur.
Forthisexample:
Thenumberoftrials=n=5
Theprobabilityofasingleevent=p=1/2
Thenumberofsuccessesthatthequestionisseeking(x=2).
Toarriveattheanswertothequestionthevaluesareenteredinthebinomialformula.
Example12
Inmanufacturingscrewdrivers,itwasempiricallydeterminedthattheprocessyields,on
average,5%defectiveproduct.Whatistheprobabilitythatinasampleoften
screwdriversthereareexactlythreedefectiveunits?
n=10,p=.05,x=3
Example13
Acompanyproduceselectronicchipsbyaprocessthatnormallyaverages2%defective
products.Asampleoffourchipsisselectedatrandomandthepartsaretestedforcertain
characteristics.
a.Whatistheprobabilitythatexactlyonechipisdefective?
b.Whatistheprobabilitythatmorethanonechipisdefective?
Morethanonedefectivechipinasampleoffourmeanstwo,threeorfourdefective
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chips.Theprobabilityofeachmaybecalculatedusingthebinomialformula.
P(morethan1defectivechip)=P(2)orP(3)orP(4)=P(2)+P(3)+P(4)
Inanytrialorsample,thesumoftheprobabilitiesoftheindividualeventsalways
equalone.Inthisproblem:P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)=1
P(morethan1defective)=1[P(0)+P(1)]=1[.9224+.0753]=.0023
8.3ThePoissonProbabilityDistribution
ThePoissondistributionisthemathematicallimittothebinomialdistributionandmaybe
usedtoapproximatebinomialprobabilities.ThePoissonisalsoadistributioninitsown
rightwhensolvingproblemsinvolvingdefectsperunitratherthanfractiondefectives.
TablesshowingsubsetsofPoissonprobabilitiesappearinmanytextbooks.Thetables
greatlysimplifythesolutionofmanyproblems.ThemostextensivePoissontableis
Poisson'sExponentialBinomialLimitbyE.C.Molina.Thetablesweredevelopedinthe
1920sandpublishedin1949.
Ifnislargeandpissmallsothatntimesp(np)isapositivenumberlessthanfive,then
thePoissonisagoodapproximationtothebinomial.Thevaluepandtheration/Nshould
belessthan0.10.
WhensolvingbinomialproblemswiththePoissonformula,thetermsn,xandparethe
sameasinthebinomialformula.Thetaskistocalculatetheprobabilityofxsuccessesin
ntrials,wheretheprobabilityofasinglesuccessisp.Rememberthatpisafraction
defectivewhenusedtoapproximatethebinomial,andpisdefectsperunitwhencounting
thenumberofdefectsinsteadofthenumberofdefectiveunits.
Insomecasesneithernnorpisgiven,buttheproductnpmaybegiven.Ifpisafraction
defectivethennpistheaveragenumberofdefectiveunitsinthesample.Ifpisintermsof
defectsperunitthennpistheaveragenumberofdefectsinthesample.
ThePoissonformulais
Example14
Inmakingswitches,ithasbeendeterminedbyempiricalstudiesthatthereis,onaverage,
onedefectperswitch.Whatistheprobabilityofselectingasampleoffiveswitchesthat
containszerodefects?Therearetwomethodstosolvethisproblem.Thefirstmethodis
tousetheaboveformulawherex=0,n=5,andp=1,therefore
np=5x1=5.
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ThesecondandmostwidelyusedmethodistousethePoissontablesthatarepublished
inmoststatisticsbooks.Tousethetables,findthevalueofxintheleftmostcolumn,then
findthevalueofnponthetoprowandreadP(x)attheintersectionofthetwovalues.
ThePoissontablevalueforP(0)=.006738or.674%
Example15
Inapapermakingoperationitwasfoundthateach1000footrollcontained,onaverage,
onedefect.Onerollisselectedatrandomfromtheprocess.
a.Whatistheprobabilitythatthisrollcontainszerodefects?
UsethePoissontablewherex=0andnp=1.ThePoissontablevalueforP(0)=.368.
b.Whatistheprobabilitythattherollcontainsexactlythreedefects?
ThePoissontablevalueforP(3)=.061
c.Whatistheprobabilitythatthisrollcontainsmorethanonedefect?
P(morethanonedefect)=P(2)+P(3)+P(4)++P()
=1[P(0)+P(1)]
=1[.368+.368]=.264
Example16
InmanufacturingtheQuemodelcar,astudydeterminedthatonaveragetherearethree
defectspercar.WhatistheprobabilityofbuyingaQuewithlessthanthreedefects?
P(lessthan3defects)=P(0)+P(1)+P(2)
UsethePoissontablesandfindP(0),P(1)andP(2)wherenp=3
P(lessthan3defects)=.049+.149+.224=.422
9.0CONDITIONALPROBABILITY
Conditionalprobabilityisdefinedastheprobabilityofaneventoccurringifanotherhas
occurredorhasbeenspecifiedtooccursimultaneously,andtheoutcomeofthefirstevent
affectstheprobabilityofthesecondevent.Conditionaleventsarenotindependent.
TheprobabilityofBoccurringgiventhatAhasalreadyoccurredisstatedasP(B/A),wherethe
symbol/means"giventhat."
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Theformulasforconditionalprobabilityareshownbelow.TheseareknownasBayesFormulas.
SincethetwoformulashaveacommontermP(A&B),theymaybeusedtogethertosolve
manyproblemsinvolvingconditionalprobability.
ConditionaleventsarenotindependentsoP(A&B)isnotequaltoP(A)XP(B).FromBayes
formulas:
P(A&B)=P(B/A)P(A)
P(A&B)=P(A/B)P(B)
Example17
Alotoffifteenitemscontainsfivedefectiveitems.Twoitemsaredrawnatrandom.What
istheprobabilitythattheseconditemdrawnwillbedefective?
LetA=eventthatfirstitemisdefective
LetA'=eventthatfirstitemisgood
LetB=eventthatseconditemisdefective
Thequestionstatedinprobabilityterms:whatisP(B)=?
P(A)=5/15,P(A')=10/15
P(B)=P(A&B)orP(A'&B)P(firstitemdefective&seconditemdefective)or
P(firstitemgood&seconditemdefective)
P(B)=P(B/A)P(A)orP(B/A')P(A')
P(B)=P(B/A)P(A)+P(B/A')P(A')
P(B)=(4/14)(5/15)+(5/14)(10/15)
P(B)=(20/210)+(50/210)=70/210=.333
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Example18
Ithasbeenfoundthat10%ofcertainrelayshavebentcoversandwillnotwork.If40%
havebentcovers,whatistheprobabilitythatarelaywithabentcoverwillnotwork?
LetA=eventthatrelayshavebentcovers
LetB=eventthatrelayswillnotwork
Given:P(A&B)=.10,P(A)=.40
Thefirstformulaoftheconditionalprobabilityformulas,Bayesformulas,givesthe
followingsolution:
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11.0
VENN
DIAGRAMS
Venndiagramsshowtheeventsandcorrespondingprobabilitiesingraphicalform.Theevents
areshownascirclesandtheshadedareawithinthecirclesrepresenttheprobabilities.
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