Abstract

Upon receiving this Major Project A for the Bachelor of Fashion (Merchandise

Management), a total of twelve weeks was spent on developing this research

proposal. This research booklet draws upon a variety of secondary data that give an

insight to the topic of trend forecasting in the form of a literature review.

An aim of the proposed research is stated and acts as an umbrella over three

objectives. These objectives intend to be answered once primary data is conducted

in Major B through a variety of primary research methods. The principal aim of this

research is to decipher the main drivers of forecasting a trend and how these drivers

are developing and changing with the modern consumer.

From a collection of secondary data, it is evident that influential people have a

significant pull in what is determined to be on trend. These influential people are

defined as celebrities, bloggers, artists and any individual with a huge following and

constantly in the public eye. Social media is what enables these influences to

broadcast their latest purchases. It is apparent that once a particular fashion is

introduced into the market and opinion leaders celebrities - are spotted in it, the

more likely the trend is to become adopted.

The trickle-down theory is discussed and is found to play a role in the process of

forecasting. Technologic advancements and manufacturing developments have

enabled the fast fashion industry to speed up the trickle down process.

This proposal also includes a detailed account of primary data methods to be carried

out in the next stage of research. Moreover, a concise Gantt chart is developed that

sets out the next steps in going forward with Major B. Mock ups of an online

questionnaire, a focus group session and an interview with an expert is found in the

appendix with the intent to delve into the changing landscape of trend forecasting.
1.0 Introduction & Rationale
Fashion forecasting plays an essential part for companies in the fashion apparel

industry. With the difficulties of the ever-changing market, consumer and technology,

trend forecasting in the traditional sense is changing too. Traditional forecasting aims

at identifying inventiveness that will translate into commercial success (Fowler,

2012). Taking a feature from a high-end garment on the Paris runway and making it

viable for the everyday consumer is an example of this. However, it is vital to

acknowledge the changing scope of the fashion forecasting industry. It is no longer

the views of an elitist from Paris laying down the laws of what is perceived to be in

trend this season. The fashion forecasting industry is experiencing a less

conventional top down approach when it comes to predicting trends. Industry

experts are now taking influences from more dynamic and modern sources of

inspiration. Street style snaps of models off-duty, fashion bloggers and celebrities all

have an incredible impact on the formation of trends in todays society. More

importantly, the roles of celebrities as major fashion influencers are having a

dramatic impact on the purchase decisions of consumers. New age technology

enabling consumers to view precisely what celebrities are wearing is vastly becoming

the new basis in forming trends.

The researcher has chosen this topic as they feel it is imperative to discuss the

pervasive transformation of the trend forecasting industry. The modern consumer is

beginning to play a huge part in deciding what is perceived as on trend. With their

incredible purchasing power, consumers are basing their purchases on what is seen

on social media platforms. This research topic aims to fill the void by investigating the

changing relationship between the forecasting industry and the modern consumer.

Furthermore, the study will reveal the underpinning concepts that influence and have

the power to change the concept trend forecasting.

2.0 Research Aim & Objectives

Aim

To develop an understanding of what the main drivers of change in the fashion

forecasting industry are and how the modern consumer is influenced by this.

Objectives

To identify the fashion forecasting industry as well as gain an understanding of the

modern consumer and factors that influence their purchasing decisions.

To analyse the affects of the trickle-down theory and discovering if fast-fashion has

enabled this process to speed up.

To evaluate the main influencers in the fashion industry and determine how trends

are becoming international sensations through social media platforms.

3.0 Literature Review
In order to understand fashion forecasting, we must first define the term fashion.

Fashion is defined in the Merriam-Webster dictionary as a popular way of dressing

during a particular time or among a particular group of people (Merriam-Webster,

2016).

It is said that fashion is not simply the objects that designers create, but rather a

social process that continually modifies the meaning of style (Sproles and Burns,

1994).

This literature review features a collection of peer-reviewed papers that are

organised into four main themes. These themes aim to provide the reader with a

clear understanding of how traditional trend forecasting methods are being shaped

and molded to better suit the modern consumer. The following themes will provide a

deep and sophisticated understanding on the changing landscape of fashion

forecasting. With the previous proposed objectives in mind, this literature review

discusses emerging concepts and influences of fashion forecasting, such as the

trickle-down phenomenon, the rise of social media and todays influences of the

world. In addition, the process in which a potential trend moves from its point of

origination to public acceptance will be discussed.

3.1 Fashion Forecasting

King (1980 p. 13) proposes, Fashion is really the intersection of style and taste.

When a style is preferred by- or is the taste of- enough members of a particular

social system or group of associated individuals to become discernible, it becomes

fashion.

There are numerous forms and theories of trend forecasting. Trend forecasting

methods are used in order to analytically learn about underlying data patterns (Choi
et al, 2014). However, due to the volatility of these data patterns, there is no perfect

forecast. Trend forecasting may be according to seasonality, market intelligence or

consumer research (Singh, 2014). El-Bakry and Mastorakis (2008) propose an

innovative system that takes a mathematical approach and is not limited to the

fashion industry. This technique speeds up the prediction stage in trend forecasting.

Another newly emerged system of forecasting is the Grey Model (GM). This model is

specific to the fashion industry and has favourable results. The hierarchical Bayesian

structure is based on prior histories of comparable products or garments (Choi et al,

2014). Although these systematic ways of forecasting do lead to promising

outcomes, many forecasters take inspiration from architecture, pop culture, music

and past fashion movements.

In more recent years, the concept of forecasting has undergone a shift. Society is

challenging the traditional technique of trend forecasting and is channeling their

attention toward influential people in the eye of social media. King (1980 p. 14)

argues that, the degree of acceptance of a particular style is measured by the

volume of that style that is being worn in the market. This is evident in that

celebrities are posting fashioned outfits on social media platforms such as Instagram.

As an example, supermodel and style inspiration Kendall Jenner has a following of

sixty-seven million people (Instagram, 2016). This kind of exposure does not

measure up to the traditional forms of advertising brands would pay for. This can be

seen as the modernised version of conventional fashion leadership theory. The

narrow elite segment of the population is seen to influence the larger fashion market

(King, 1980). Traditional forecasting may become outdated as advances in

technology and the influential capabilities of people rise.

3.2 The Trickle Down Phenomenon

Rosa (2013 p.79) states, It is now generally accepted that the evolution of fashion in

the twentieth century can be described as a process of democratization. The

democratization of fashion can be dated back to the founding of Haute Couture in the

1920s by fashion houses such as Chanel and Yves Saint Laurent (Rosa, 2013).

Haute Couture was primarily for the more affluent class. These garments were

unique, original one-off pieces, inaccessible to the majority of the population. Over

the decades, designers and product developers take inspiration from upmarket

designs and make them widely available to the mass market. This movement is

known as the trickle down theory.

The Veblen Simmel Model, also referred to as the trickle down theory, holds the

hypothesis that fashion adoption flows vertically from the upper classes to the lower

classes within society (King, 1980). Georg Simmel established this theory in 1904. A

once widely accepted theory, the trickle down effect displayed the acceptance of

products or garments by people at different status levels. Traditionally, the early

adopters are considered to be the trendsetters and are at the top of the pyramid.

The adoption of trends by these early adopters is later followed by the adoption by

people on progressively lower levels- the mass market (Field, 1970). The small

percentage of the population who identify as early adopters pave the way for other

social classes. Ma et al (2012 p. 84) states, Fashion is a product of class distinction

and occupies a dividing line between different social classes. Fashion consumption

is notorious for showing-off and having an identity distinction (Ma et al, 2012).

Psychological research has been conducted concerning consumer behaviour that

brings to light the need to flaunt (Veblen, 1997). The mass market then longs for the

pursuit of a luxurious lifestyle, thus the trickle down effect comes into play and trends

are emulated at a lower price point. The Veblen Simmel model then continues into

the decline of that trend as when the mass market begin to imitate the trend, the

early adopters abandons that fashion and develops a new craze (Ma et al, 2012).
Fast fashion takes inspiration from high-end designers as well as what the main

influencers of fashion are photographed in for the mass market to see. It is clear that

with the development of fast fashion that the trickle down process has accelerated

in todays society. The contemporary fashion environment has endured an increase

of speed from the design process to the garments being accessible to the mass

market. The development of manufacturing techniques and distribution networks has

enabled fast-fashion giants to take a design from the drawing board to store shelf in

a matter of weeks. The advancements in mass merchandising, the proliferation of

mass media and the increased levels of income all contribute to the fast-tracked

version of the trickle down theory (King et al, 1980).

3.3 The Rise of Social Media

Social media is profoundly enriched into our everyday lives. The Sensis Social Media

Report states that 79% of consumers aged eighteen to twenty-nine access social

media on an everyday basis (Sensis, 2015). Social media ranges from Facebook,

Twitter and Instagram, to online blogs and forums. It is becoming increasingly

prevalent that consumers are looking to these platforms for inspiration and

information. In addition, brands are leaning towards social media as a form of

marketing and communication. Technology encourages customers to interact with

brands and visa versa.

The advancement of technology and social media has altered the relationship

between brand and consumer forever. High-end brands have embraced the wave of

technology by building customer relationships through apps and social media.

Heritage brands such as Chanel, Louis Vuitton and Saint Laurent provide live

broadcasting fashion shows from their blogs (Kim & Ko, 2011). In the past, fashion

shows were extremely exclusive and only elite guests and celebrities were invited.

Due to the progression of social media, virtually anyone has access to runway shows
past and present. Live broadcasts gives the consumer a real time account of these

runway events.

From the consumers point of view, through social networking, they have the

opportunity to upload, share and like. King (1980 p 16) proposes that, Fashion

involvement is highly participative, social and visible form of consumer behaviour.

Online platforms enable the user to be innovative and gain acceptance within his or

her social networks. King (1980 p 16) further supports this by stating that, the

ultimate stimulant to mass fashion acceptance, or rejection in the early stages of the

fashion objects lifestyle is within the consumers personal social network. An

international trend can be formed through the use of social media by a particular

fashion fad going viral. By having a sense of acceptance and belongingness,

consumers are confident in participating, thus an international trend is formed. The

Maslows Hierarchy of Needs theory occurs as both belongingness and self-

actualization is fulfilled (Wiliam, 2014).

The fashion industrys main influence on social media was the creation of fashion

blogs. Bloggers are leading destinations among web users that offer an elitist point

of view (Colliander & Dahlen, 2011). Blogs can be established by any user and are

seen as uncontrollable platforms, therefore it is important to acknowledge the

trustworthiness of the blogger. It has been discovered that purchase intention is

greater after exposure to a positive blog post about a brand when compared to the

same article in an online magazine (Colliander & Dahlen, 2011). An important

attribute of a blogger is to be seen as unbiased and a credible source of information.

Fashion bloggers keep their readers up-to-date of what is trending and in fashion.

Bloggers may also review certain products and inform consumers of their results. A

degree of transparency is required as the effectiveness of the review will rely on the
type of relationship between the blogger and the brand they may be promoting

(Mohr, 2013). Blog posts are the modern day word-of-mouth and may have positive

and negative effect on a brands image. Influential bloggers are reaching millions of

readers and becoming style sensations themselves (Colliander & Dahlen, 2011). Not

only are consumers clicking onto read product reviews; they are looking to these

social media celebrities for style inspiration. Bloggers have huge online followings

and are being compared to celebrities when it comes to style advice and predicting

trends. Once amateur blogs are considered to be style bloggers they can command

up to four and five-figure fees from brands (Mohr, 2013). Bloggers are relatable and

can be seen in a glamorous yet achievable light. Consumers are looking to bloggers

rather than the catwalks of Paris as fashion forecasting has tipped towards this real

people movement. As blogging has evolved over the last decade, fashion

forecasting has factored in bloggers and blogging as main sources of inspiration.

3.4 Todays Influencers of the World

Celebrities are vastly being seen as the main influencers of fashion. Celebrities can

range from actors, to musicians, models or even individuals famous for constantly

being in the public eye. New technology has enabled celebrities the means of

communicating trends through social media platforms (Muda et al, 2014).

Consumers have the opportunity to follow these celebrity profiles and track who and

what they are wearing. In the last few years, a new consumer society has arisen

due to this. Rifon (2012, p. 3) states, Young consumers borrow from a celebrity they

admire in their identity construction. These young consumers are referred to as

Generation Z, who are constantly connected via social media. This generation

aspires to share the lifestyle celebrities are portrayed to have by emulating their style

and characteristics. Celebrities to them are seen as models of success (Muda,

2014).
Not only are celebrities regarded as style inspirations, they are going a step further

and becoming brand ambassadors, endorsers and in some cases holding financial

stakes in the company. The Source Credibility Model was created by Hovland, Janis

& Kelley (1953). This model sets out two essential factors critical in determining the

perceived credibility of a message. Expertise and trustworthiness are the two

significant influences in whether a consumer will trust a celebrity endorsing a brand.

Without these two factors, the product and marketing efforts will not be as effective.

A study conducted by Spolter & Thakka (2011) showed that seeing a celebrity in a

commercial or another form of paid advertising in a particular style was far less

effective than seeing them casually in a magazine or blog post. Endorsements

carried out by influential people are becoming outdated. A more transparent

approach is required to have the full effect on a consumer being inclined to a fashion

purchase.

Fashion brands are giving celebrities the power to over-see decision making and

provide valuable input (Muda, 2014). Celebrities can be referred to as opinion

leaders in society. Spolter & Thakkar (2011 p. 2) state that, opinion leaders are key

members of society that are crucial in disseminating information on the latest fashion

trends. Brands are aware of this and using it to their advantage. Once a particular

fashion is introduced into the market and opinion leaders spotted in it, the more likely

the trend is to become adopted. The process in which the newly established trend to

mass-market acceptance is critical for brands to understand. The way in which

consumers are looking to celebrities through social media has changed the

traditional trend forecasting landscape.

Influential people are posting images of themselves through their own social media

platforms. Accessible by millions, a trend can be instantaneously formed over night.

However, it is apparent that the average consumer does not have the financial
means to achieve each item their beloved celebrity may post (Muda et al, 2014).

Fast fashion has filled the gap between high-end garments and the everyday

consumer. Affordable adaptations are manufactured and made readily accessible to

the mass market. As the concept becomes viable for one fast fashion brand to

develop, others will emulate and follow, thus enabling the original concept to become

a trend. The purchase power of the mass market along with social media capabilities

permit the fashion fad to be observed worldwide and has the means to create an

international trend.

The above discussion has highlighted the many ways in which fashion forecasting

can be shaped and molded. It is clear that influential people have a significant pull in

what is determined to be on trend. Social media enables the modern consumer to

keep up to date with what these influential people are posting via a number of

platforms. The trickle-down theory still plays a somewhat role in the process of

forecasting. However, fast fashion is speeding up the process. Technologic

advancements and manufacturing developments have enabled the fast fashion

industry to take inspiration from high-end designers. The rate in which a sketch is

drawn to it being readily available on floor is at an all time rapid rate. It is clear that

the landscape of traditional trend forecasting is changing and becoming consumer

driven due to the likes of social media and celebrity influencers. The next portion

expands further into a proposed research technique and a detailed account on

methods used to investigate the aim to develop an understanding of what the main

drivers of change in the fashion forecasting industry are and how the modern

consumer is influenced by this.