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Submitted in partial fulfillment of the

requirements for award


b.Com (Computer Application)
semester- vi Sem.
session : 2016-17

H.O.D.
Dr. A.P. Shukla
Head Of Department, B.Com (CA)
A.P.S. University, Rewa
SUBMITTED TO :- SUBMITTED BY:-
Dr. Priyanka Shukla Saurav Kumar
Department of B.com (CA) Pandey
Govt. TRS (Darbaar) College Rewa B.Com.(CA) VIth Sem
Roll No. 1418127

Department of b.com (computer application)


Govt. TRS College REWA
CHAPTER-1
INTRODUCTION
The Indian Capital Market witnessed unprecedented developments and
innovations, particularly during the last decades. These innovations, relate to
new financial institutions and new financial instruments such as Mutual Funds,
and a variety of financial services like merchant banking, credit rating,
factoring etc. Under the changed environment, the Mutual Funds play a vital
role in financial intermediation, development of Capital Markets and the
growth of the corporate sector. Despite the fact that Indian Mutual Fund
Industry is relatively new, it has grown at a rapid speed, influencing various
sectors of the financial markets and in the process, the national economy. In
fact. Mutual Funds have now become an important medium of investment for
the average Indian investors. By enabling the investors to indirectly participate
in the Capital Markets and to reap the gains of adequate diversification and
professional management. Mutual Funds have become an important constituent
of the Indian Financial System. Mutual Funds is generally seen as a Portfolio
Manager who manages the fixnds of members.

The risk and returns relationship depends on a variety of social,


economical and political factors in the national and international markets. As
there is no certainty regarding the occuirence of these factors, the investment
decisions have to be always taken in uncertain situations. The investment
decisions are risky but the magnitude of risk can be reduced, if not totally
eliminated, by gathering information in advance. This information can be used
to suitably alter decisions regarding the portfolio even before the occurrence of
an adverse situation. Mutual Funds, as portfolio Managers, help the investors
by rendering low-cost services, such as gathering and processing information,

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identifying investment opportunities, formulating investment strategies,
investing fimds and monitoring progress.

The Mutual Funds is one type of an investment institution which mobilizes


savings of individuals and institutions and channelizes these savings into
corporate securities to provide the investors a steady stream of returns and
capital appreciation. It is worthwhile to note the terms of Securities and
Exchange Board of India (Mutual Fimds) Regulations, 1996 regarding Mutual
Funds. It defmes it as "a fiind established in the form of trust to raise monies
through the sale of units to the public or a section of the public under one or
more schemes for investing in securities, including money market
instruments".

Organisation of the Mutual Funds

The structure of Mutual Fund operations in hidia envisages a three tier


establishment namely,

A sponsor institution to promote the fund,

A team of trustees to oversee the operations and to provide checks for the
efficient, profitable and transparent operations of the fund and

An Asset Management Company (AMC) to actually deal with the fimds.

Classification of Mutual Funds

The Mutual Funds can be broadly classified into three categories,

(a) Portfolio Classification of Mutual Funds,

(b) Functional Classification of Mutual Funds, and

(c) Geographical Classification of Mutual Funds.

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(a) Portfolio Classification of Mutual Funds

In this category, the funds differ with one another with respect to the
types of securities which comprise the portfolio. Different fiinds are designed
to cater to the risk and returns profile of different types of investors. Thus
objectives of the funds differed significantly giving rise to following types.

^ Growth Funds

The objective of a Growth Fund is to achieve long-term capital


appreciation by predominantly investing in growth oriented equity shares of
companies. It is suitable for long term investors seeking capital appreciation.
The fund typically invests around 80 to 90 percent of its corpus in equity and
equity linked instruments and the balance in debt and money market securities.
The risk profile is generally medium to high.

^ Income Funds

The focus of Income Funds is to generate a steady stream of income consistent


with the preservation of capital and liquidity. Typically, such a fund invests its
net assets in fixed income securities, money market instruments, cash and cash
equivalents while at the same time maintains a small exposure to the equity
markets. The risk profile is generally low to medium.

^ Bonds Funds

Bonds Funds seek to provide investors with safety, liquidity as well as


satisfactory yield. They are the safest option as the money under such funds is
invested in government or corporate debt securities which offer predetermined
rates of interest. Bond Funds reduce the interest rate, credit opportunity and
foreign currency risks.

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^ Balanced Funds

The investment objective of a Balanced Fimd is to provide periodic


returns and capital appreciation over a long period of time from a judicious
mix of equity and debt instruments. Normally a balanced fund invests 60
percent of its net assets in equity and equity related instruments, with the
balance 40 percent being invested in fixed income securities and money
market instruments. The risk profile is medium to high.

^ Monthly Income Plans (MIP)

The primary investment objective of an MIP is to generate regular


income through investments in fixed income securities so as make monthly
payment or distribution to its unit holders. The secondary objective is the
growth of capital through investments in equity. The risk profile is low to
medium.

^ GUt Funds

A Gilt Fund seeks to provide the investors with a current income


consistent with a portfolio invested in securities created and issued by the
Central Government and /or State Governments. A portfolio invested in
government securities is normally associated with an investment strategy in the
debt markets that is free of credit risk (i.e., risk of default by the issuer).

^ Liquid/Money Market Fund

The investment objective of this fiind is to generate income and capital


appreciation by investing 100 percent of the corpus in a diversified portfolio of
debt and money market securities. Such a fimd provides high liquidity at low
risk.

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^ Index Funds

The primary investment objective of Index Funds is to invest in companies


whose securities are included in a stock market index e.g. S&P Nifly Index.
The Index

Fund aims to generate returns commensurate with the index it tracks. This is
done by investing in all the stocks comprising the index in approximately the
weightage that they represent in the specific index.

^ Sector Funds

The Sector Funds are devoted to invest in a single or a group of


industries. It offers the risk and returns associated with such industries. The
risk profile is high.

^ Tax- Saving Funds

hi India, the Tax-Saving Funds are launched in the nature of Equity


Linked Savings Schemes (ELSS). Under such schemes, Individual investor and
a Hindu Undivided Family (HUF) can claim deduction from income tax under
section 88 of the Income Tax Act 1961. The investments in ELSS are locked in
for a period of three years.

^ Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

The Exchange Traded Funds are an improvement on traditional Mutual


Funds with a hybrid of open ended Mutual Funds and mdividual stocks.
Exchange Traded Funds represent a basket of securities that are traded on an
exchange. It is similar to an index fiind which primarily invests in the
securities of companies that are included in selected index.

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^ Gold Exchange Traded Funds (GETFs)

The Gold Exchange Traded Funds are a special type of exchange traded
fijnd that tracks the price of gold. Gold exchange traded funds are traded on all
the major stock exchanges including BSE and NSE.

^ Miscellaneous Funds

A Mutual Fund may be designed to meet the specific needs of different


segments of society like children, senior citizens, girl child, retired people etc.
These types of funds called Miscellaneous Funds.

(b) Functional Classification of Mutual Funds

On the basis of functional classification, the Mutual Funds may be


classified into Open Ended or Closed Ended.

^ Open-Ended Funds

An Open Ended Fund offers units of sale on a continuous basis without


specifying any duration for redemption and always stands ready to buy units
issued by it at any time at a repurchase price. Thus, the holders of the units in
such fiinds can resell their holdings to the issuing Mutual Fund at any time.
Both the value of the units and the number of units fluctuate fi-om day to day
as the value of the securities and the number of investors change. At the end of
each day, the securities in the portfolio are valued.

^ Closed End Funds

Closed End Funds have a definite target amount, a fixed period of


subscription and a fixed number of units that can be offered to the investors.
These funds are redeemed after the completion of their duration. The units are
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priced and traded just like equity shares on the major stock exchanges. The
Mutual Fund may also provide repurchase facility to the unit holders. An
investor who wants to sell the units of a Closed End Fund must sell through a
broker at the prevailing market price. Such a fund's units may not necessarily
trade at its net asset value.

(c) Geographical Classification of Mutual Funds

Mutual Funds that operate within a country's boundaries by mobilizing


savings of its citizens within the country are called Domestic Mutual Funds.
On the other hand, funds which are meant for subscription fi-om foreigners or
fi-om a country's citizens living outside its shores are known as Offshore
Mutual Funds.

Growth and Development of Mutual


Funds Genesis of Indian Mutual Fund
Industry

The genesis of Mutual Funds in India can be traced to the year when the Indian
Parliament enacted the Unit Trust of India (UTI) Act. The significance of the
establishment of UTI Act which reads as : An Act to provide for the
establishment of a Corporation with a view to encouraging saving and
investment and participation in the

Growth of Mutual Fund Industry (2000-08)

A new trend in the Mutual Fund Industry began with the entry of private sector
funds and foreign asset management companies. The asset under management
of Mutual Fund companies in different sectors from 2000-2008 is shown in

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Table 1.5.

According to above Table, UTI mobilised Rs. 76547 crores in the year of 2000
and it decreased to Rs. 13516 crores in 2003. The reason for the decreasing
trend was that UTI was bifurcated into two separate entities. In the case of
bank sponsored Mutual Funds, the AUM was increased from Rs. 7842 crores
to 81229 crores during the period of 2000 to2008. It is to be noted that bank
sponsored Mutual Funds increased more than ten times during the period.
Institution sponsored Mutual Fund Companies earned Rs. 14337 crores in the
year of 2008. It is nearly three times higher than that of 2005. It is understood
that the Private Sector Mutual Funds played the dominant role in the Mutual
Fund Industry. While their total AUM was nearly 90% of total AUM of Mutual
Fund Industry in the year of 2008, it is to be noted that the total AUM of
Mutual Fund Companies increased nearly five times from 2000 to 2008.

Table 1.6 reveals the Asset Under Management of different Mutual Fund
Schemes from 2000 to 2008. It is clear from the above Table that the Mutual
Funds Schemes have been broadly classified into eight different types. The
Table indicates that Income Funds acquired higher assets than all other fiinds.
The Income Funds have nearly 50 percent of AUM from the total AUM in the
year 2008. The GroAvth Funds' AUM increased from Rs. 30611 crores in the
year of 2000 to Rs. 156722 crores in the year 2008. The Liquid/ Money Market
Mutual Fund Schemes' AUM also increased year by year. It indicates that the
investors belong to the low risk category and they increased year by year.

Benefits of Mutual Fund Investment

Investment in Mutual Funds offers several benefits to the investors as


given below.

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Professional Management

Diversification

Easy Administration

Higher Returns Potential

Comparatively Low Costs

Easy Liquidity

Transparency

FlexibiUty

Affordability, and

Operate within a Legal Framework


Regulations of Mutual Fund

The Mutual Funds Industry is governed by the SEBI (Mutual Funds)


Regulations, 1996. Apart from these Guidelines, the present system of
regulation of Mutual Funds includes the provisions of the hidian Trusts Act
1882, relevant provisions of the Companies Act, 1956 and the Income Tax Act,
1961. Though the Unit Trust of India continues to be governed by the Unit
Trust of India Act of 1963, it also comes under the SEBI (Mutual Funds)
Regulations, 1996.

The above discussion has provided a conceptual framework for Mutual Ftmds.
Different types of Mutual Funds Schemes are presented here. It has discussed
the phases of development of Mutual Funds since the inception to the present
scenario. In doing so, the growth of Asset Under Management of Mutual Funds
Industry was also observed from 2000 to 2008.

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CHAPTER-2
REVIEW OF LITERATURE

This chapter presents the review of previous research studies made in the
area of Mutual Funds. Articles published in national / international journals,
websites and books were used to compile the review of this study. Mohinder N.
Kaura and Jayadev.M (1995), in their paper entitled,

"Performance of Growth Oriented Mutual Funds: An Evaluation", have


empirically examined the performance of five growth oriented Mutual Funds
during the accounting period 1993 to 1994. This paper used the methodology
which was derived by Jensen, Treynor, Sharpe and Fama. The paper concluded
that growth oriented Mutual Funds possibly out performed the market with
respect to systematic risk and exceptionally demonstrate the superior
performance in terms of total risk.

^Miranda Lam Detzler and James B. Wiggins (1997), in their study


entitled,"The Performance of Actively Managed International Mutual
Funds", analyzed the role of international funds in our country. Their study
found that there was no evidence of security selectivity ability using a 12
country benchmark. However, those active international funds provided global
diversification benefits.

^According to a Study, "Irrelevance of CAPM and Problems with Fund


Performance Metrics", conducted by Ramachandran.G (1997), the
relationship between returns, and risk was inversed during the study period
from 1994 to 1997. The study rejected CAPM results under predictive and non
predictive forms during the study period.

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^ Yuxing Yan (1999), in his article, discussed the ARCH effect on the Treynor -
Mazuy Index (TM) which is used to overcome the shortcomings of other
indices to measure the timing ability of Mutual Fund Managers. The article
found that for majority of Mutual Funds, the assumption of constant variance
was not correct in majority of cases. The article has directed the researchers,
who use the Bivariate Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional
Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) Model, to estimate the TM Index when the time
dependent variances of Portfolio and the Market Index are estimated."*

A paper entitled, Market Timing Abilities of Indian Mutual Fund Manager:


An Empirical Study, by Amitabh Gupta (2000), examined the market tuning
abilities of Indian Fund Managers in terms of two models, one proposed by
Treyaor and Mazuy and the other by Henriksson and Merton. The empirical
results reported have not provided evidence to the market timing abilities of the
Indian Fund Managers.

Ramesh Chander (2000), in his doctoral dissertation entitled. Performance


Appraisal of Mutual Funds in India, studied the investment performance of
selected Mutual Funds in terms of risk and returns across the fund
characteristics. Besides, the study examined the portfolio management
practices of mutual fund managers with respect to portfolio construction,
portfolio management, portfolio evaluation, disclosure practices and investors
services. The researcher concluded that in terms of average returns, majority of
the sample mutual fund schemes have recorded superior performance
compared to benchmark portfolio.

^ A joint paper entitled. Performance Analysis of Mutual Funds in India, by


Narasimhan.M.S and Vijayalakshmi.S (2001), evaluated the performance of the
Mutual
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Funds in terms of achieving diversification benefit and fund manager's timing
ability.

The study found that there was a general shift in the investment strategy of
holding a diversified portfolio and in optimizing the risk-returns of investments
to invest in

predictive wirmers of the period.

Maria Doceu Cortez and Florinda Silva (2002), in their study on Conditioning
Information on Portfolio Performance Evaluation: A Re-examination of
Performance Persistence in the Portuguese Mutual Fund Market, analyzed
the performance of sample of Portuguese stock funds using both unconditional
and conditional measures. They found that the incorporation of public
information variables were an important contribution to the process of
evaluating fund performance. The authors concluded that time varying betas
might allow for a better assessment of performance. However, they emphasized
that further research was needed on Q

The study entitled, "Competitive Advantage for Players in Mutual Funds


Industry: A Study Based on the Perceptions of Mutual Funds", by
Thenmozhi.M and Farced Jama.J (2002), made an attempt to examine the
competitive advantage for players in Mutual Funds based on the perception of
Mutual Funds. The study analyzed the key competitive advantage factors,
namely, brand name, risk management ability, customer service, expertise in
portfolio management and strong research base.

An empirical study entitled, "Selectivity and Timing Skills of Mutual Funds


in India: An Empirical Analysis", by Biswadeep Mishra(2002), analyzed the
timing and selectivity skills of Mutual Funds from April 1992 to December

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1996. In this article, the author used the generalized varying parameter
regression procedure to examine mutual fund's selectivity, beta stationarity and
timing skills. The study found that about 25% of the scheme posses timing
skills and 29% had negative timing ability.

A research book entitled, "Mutual Funds in India", written by Amitabh


Gupta (2002), evaluated the performance of 73 Indian mutual fund schemes
and examined the market abilities of mutual fund managers for the study period
form 1994 to 1999. Thebook explained the growth and development of mutual
fund industry in India during the period of 1987 to 2001. The author concluded
that Indian fund managers did not seem to have generated excess returns during
the study period. It is found that Indian Mutual Funds, particularly the private
sector fund, had also taken the initiative to improve their investors services and
distribution network.

Stephanos Papadamou and George Stephanides(2004), conducted a study


entitled, "Evaluating the style based risk model for equity Mutual Funds
investing in Europe", to examine American equity Mutual Funds of varying
investment styles investing in Europe. The empirical results showed that the
particular investment style of a mutual ftind must guide and determine which
VaR and ETL model may be applied in order to extract accurate risk estimates.
This study concluded that through 'back testing' procedures, provided
additional evidence for the significance of testing frequency and size of tail
losses in order to rank risk models.

^^ Nicolas P.B. BoUen and Jeffrey A. Busse (2004), in their article entitled,
"Short-Term Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance", examined the
issue of determination in mutual fund performance emphasing short
measurement period. The authors have suggested that misspecification of the
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performance model was not driving the results. The results found no evidence
of ability using the concatenated returns and isolated a negative long-term

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CHAPTER-3
RESEARCH DESIGN

Statement of the Problem

The Mutual Funds Industry is one of the fast growing sectors in hidia smce the
initiation of economic reforms in 1991. However, growth of Mutual Funds
haveposed difficulties to investors in making a selection of suitable schemes
since there are more than 600 schemes, as on December 2007. The issues
related to the choice of schemes among the public and private sector fiinds on
the one hand and high risk associated schemes such as equity funds on the
other, have become highly important for every investor. It is relevant that even
a single wrong decision of Fund Manager may put the investors in financial
crisis, some times leading to their bankruptcy. Therefore a proper performance
evaluation measure is required as it will remove confusion and help the small
investors in selecting suitable Mutual Funds Schemes for investment. The
performance evaluation of Mutual Funds and the identification of successfixl
Fund Managers are of great interest to investors, general public and
academicians. A number of studies have been conducted across the world,
including India, to find out the performance of Mutual Funds by using different
performance measures. The researchers have used different tools like Treynor,
Sharpe, Fama and Jenson Models and Treynor and Mazuy (TM) and
Henriksson and Merton (HM) under both conditional and unconditional
Models. The earlier studies analysed the market timing and stock selection
abilities of Fund Managers by using only variables like Forex Reserves,
Interest Rate and Market Dividend Yield. But there was no comprehensive
study conducted by considering variables like GOI Bonds Indices having
different maturity periods. Hence the present study has been made to fill this
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research gap and analyze the performance of Open Ended Equity Mutual Fund
Schemes and analyse the market timing and stock selection ability. Against this
background, the present study entitled, "Analysis of Market Timing and Stock

Selection Ability of Indian Mutual Funds", was undertaken.

Need of the Study

It is a known fact that Mutual Fund Institutions in India have grown


significantly during the last decade. These institutions certainly play a crucial
role in the Indian economy. The rapid growth of Mutual Funds has compelled
us to take a deeper look into the performance of Mutual Funds, taking into
account the expectations of investors, ability of Fund Managers and market
timings of the Portfolio Managers. This would enable investors to assess how
much returns has been generated by Portfolio Managers and what risk level
was assumed in generating such funds. Similarly, Fund Managers would be
able to identify their fand performance over the time. The study on
performance evaluation also provides a mechanism for identifying strengths
and weaknesses of Fund Managers in the investment process in different
market conditions, which help them to take corrective actions. Many studies
have been conducted to analyse the performance of Mutual Funds using
different models and varia les. Only few studies have evaluated the
performance of Mutual Funds by using more variables for the purpose of
predicting accurate result. Hence the present study is an attempt to analyse
performance analysis taking into consideration the market timing

ability and stock selection ability of Managers of Equity Mutual Fund Schemes
by

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Scope of the Study

Mutual Fund Institutions are dynamic financial institutions which play a


crucial role in an economy by mobilizing savings and investing them in the
Capital Market. Mutual Funds have provided investors with alternative
opportunities with benefits of diversification and professional research back up.
Once the objectives of investment and associated constraints have been
identified. Fund Managers could select an efficient portfolio. Fund Managers
must also consider the appropriate market timing and develop a suitable fiand
management style. The ability of Fund Managers depends on the final
performance of the fiinds. However, factors like nature of portfolio, classes of
assets, the timing of market entry and exit and portfolio switching also
determine the performance of Mutual Funds. Every type of Mutual Funds has
its own objective, based on their risk profile and liquidity content.

Generally Equity Mutual Funds experience more risk than other funds.
Besides, only Equity Funds are more relevant to the concepts of market timing
and security selection rather than Debt Fund. Hence the present study aims at
analysing the performance of Open Ended Equity Funds during the period of
2002 to 2007. It is lso proposed to examine the stock selection abilities and
market timing abilities of Fund Managers by using six variaTjles like 91 days
Treasury Bills Returns, GOI Bonds of 1 to 3 years maturity period returns, 3 to
8 years maturity period returns,

Objectives of the Study

The study was undertaken with the following objectives,

1. To overview the growth and development of Mutual Fund hidustry in India,

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2. To evaluate the performance of sample Equity Mutual Funds Schemes based
on

risk and returns relationship,

3. To compare the sample Mutual Funds Returns with their respective market

returns,

4. To analyze the investment performance of sample schemes with respective

benchmark through the relation to their systematic risk and total variability,

5. To evaluate the market timing abilities of Mutual Fund Managers by using

unconditional and conditional models,

6. To apprise the stock selection abilities of Mutual Fund Managers by using

unconditional and conditional models,

7. To summarize the findings and suggestions of the study.

Methodology of the Study

Sample Selection

The present study is an attempt to analyze the perfonnance of Open Ended

Equity Funds in India during the period of 1^' January 2002 to 31^* December
2007. For

this purpose of analyzing the continuous perfonnance of Mutual Fund


Companies, the

sample was selected from the Mutual Fund Companies whose schemes with
daily NAV

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and other information were available for the whole study period. As on 1
December 2002, Indian Mutual Funds Industry had 36 players in the market.
Out of 36 players, the required information for this research was available only
for 21 players. Hence the researcher has selected only 21 Mutual Funds
Companies of different caegories. The selected sample Mutual Fund
Companies fall under bank sponsored institutions, private sector from foreign
and Indian, joint ventures between foreign and Indian companies and UTI
Mutual Funds. The details of the sample Mutual Funds Companies and

Schemes are given below.

Period of the Study

The present study on the performance of sample Equity Mutual Funds schemes

covered a period of six years from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2007. For
the purpose of analysis, benchmark portfolio and other macro economic factors
were collected for the same period.

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CHAPTER-4
ANALYSIS OF MARKET TIMING ABILITY OF MUTUAL FUND
MANAGERS

In the last chapter, an attempt was made to review the relevant literature and
appropriate research design. The present chapter presents an analysis of the
performance of selected sample Mutual Fund Schemes. The prime objective of
ll Mutual Funds is to ensure adequate profitability for small investors on their
hardearned money deposited with Mutual Funds. Hence Fund Managers have
to exercise at most caution while choosing an investment portfolio. The
investors assume risk in the hope of generating extra returns on their portfolios.
Generally in India, the fiinds of Equity Mutual Funds Schemes are invested
mostly in equity. It is important to note that Equity Mutual Funds Schemes do
have a higher risk and so investors expect higher returns than under other
schemes. Thus the choice of a risk measure would depend on the risk of the
managed portfolio and it is diversified at the level of the Portfolio Manager.

The performance of Mutual Funds is measured in terms of returns per unit of

risk. The sample Mutual Funds that provide the highest returns per unit of risk
would be considered as the best performer. Thus, there are two such measures
that were commonly used for performance evaluation. There are Treynor
reward to volatility ratio and Sharpe reward to variability ratio. Hence the
present study uses these two ratios to measure the performance of Mutual
Funds. For the purpose of this study, this chapter is classified into two sections.

Section A - Analysis of Risk and Returns Relationship Section B - Analysis of


Treynor and Sharpe Ratios.

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SECTION - A

To study the risk and returns relationship, the year wise and option wise
analysis are made in the present section as given below.

1. Analysis of risk and returns relationship of sample Mutual Funds (based on


the Dividend Option.)

2. Analysis of risk and returns relationship of sample Mutual Funds (based on


the Growth Option.)

The risk and returns relationship of sample Equity Mutual Funds


Schemes under Dividend Option during the year of 2002. It is to be noted from
the Table that out of thirty five sample schemes, the ftmd returns values of
twenty fivesample schemes were positive. Out of these twenty five schemes
that recorded positivereturn, schemes like Reliance Growth Fund - Dividend
Option (0.0019), Birla Sun Life Basic hidustries Fund - Plan A (Dividend)
(0.0013), Birla India Opportunities Fund - Dividend (0.0012), Principal
Resurgent India Equity Fund - Dividend (0.0012) and HDFC Long Term
Advantage Fund - Dividend (0.0010) earned higher returns. It is interesting to
note that out of thirty five sample schemes (total sample scheme), only sample
schemes like Reliance Growth Fund - Dividend Option (t-a = 2.3945) earned
positive significant alpha value during the study period. From the analysis of
this Table it is clear that there was no significant relation between excess
returns of all other schemes and their respective market returns. In the case of
beta (market risk), only ten schemes earned positive significant value at 1%
level and one scheme earned positive significant at 5% level. It is to be noted
that the beta values of LIC Growth Fund - Dividend Option (-0.0233), JM
Equity Fund - Dividend (-0.0220), Biria MNC Fund - ividend (-0.0182), BMa
Sun Life Basic Industries Fund - plan A (Dividend) (-0.3616), HDFC Capital
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Builder Fund Dividend (-0.0250), Franklin India hidex Fund - Nifty Plan -
Dividend Plan (-0.0041), Principal Child Benefit Fund (Super Saver) -
Dividend (-0.0022), and Principal Resurgent India Equity Fund - Dividend (-
0.0019) schemes were negative, but not statistically significant. However, the
sample scheme like HDFC Growth Fund Dividend (t-P = 24.6505) recorded
the highest t-beta value at 1% significant level. It indicates he close positive
significant relation between the scheme and their market movements. From the
overall analysis of this Table, it is clear that more than fifty percent of sainple
schemes under Dividend Option did not have any significant relation to market
risk.

It may be concluded that alpha and beta values of all schemes were not
ignificantly related. It indicates that there is no significant relationship between
risk and returns of sample schemes and the market in 2002.

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Testing of Hypotheses

As a whole, the analysis of the risk and returns relationship indicates that
majority of sample (equity) schemes' performances were not significantly
related to their market movements during the study period. It is evidenced from
the results of tbeta values that the statistical hypothesis - 1 "There is No
Significant Relation between Rislcs and Returns of the Sample Equity
Mutual Fund during the Study Period" is proved because very few sample
schemes showed significant t - values. The overall conclusion from the above
analysis indicates that according to talpha values, majority of sample schemes'
returns were not significantly different from their market returns. However,
very few number of sample schemes' returns were significantly different from
their market returns during the study period. Therefore, the hypothesis - 2
"There is No Significant Difference Between the Market Returns and the
Sample Equity Mutual Funds Returns during the Study Period" is
partially accepted.

SECTION - B

An attempt has been made in this section to study the volatility ratio and
ariability ratio (the year wise and option wise analysis).

1. Analysis of Treynor and Sharpe ratios of sample Equity Mutual Funds

(based on the Dividend Option).

2. Analysis of Treynor and Sharpe ratios of sample Equity Mutual Funds

(based on the Growth Option).

The results of Treynor and Sharpe ratios of sample Equity Mutual Fund

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Schemes (Dividend Option) in the year of 2002 are shown in. According to
Treynor Ratio, nineteen sample schemes earned better ratio than their
benchmark ratios. The top five performers include Reliance Growth Fund -
Dividend (0.0541), DSP Merrill Lynch Opportunities Fund - Dividend
(0.0257), Biria MNC Fund - Dividend (0.0249), Principal Growth Fund
Dividend (0.0090) and Biria hidia Opportunities Fund - Dividend (0.0053).
The analysis of Sharpe Ratio shows that twenty three schemes performed better
than their benchmark. At the same time.

Reliance Growth Fund - Dividend (0.1434), Escorts Tax Plan - Dividend


(0.0674), Principal Resurgent India Equity Fund - Dividend (0.0657), Merrill
Lynch Opportunities Fund - Dividend (0.0579) and Principal Child Benefit
Fund (Super Saver) - Dividend (0.0559) also performed well. The comparison
of results pertaining to Treynor and Sharpe Ratios reflect some conflict in the
ranking of schemes. The conflict arises due to the fact that Sharpe Ratio
reckoned the total risk of sample schemes whereas the Treynor Ratio
considered only the systematic or the market risk. It may be concluded fi-om
the above observations that under Treynor and Sharpe Ratios, more than 50
percent of sample schemes outperformed their respective bench marks. In
Table - 3.18, the results of Treynor and Sharpe Ratios of sample Equity Mutual
Fund Schemes during the year of 2005 are given. The above Table indicates
that twenty one sample schemes under Treynor Ratio and sixteen sample
schemes under Sharpe ratio outperformed their bench mark ratios during the
year 2005. It is clearly observed from the Table that schemes like ICICI
Prudential FMCG Fund - Dividend (0.0403), Principal Child Benefit Fund
(Super Saver) - Dividend (0.0273), Reliance Growth Fund - Dividend (0.0170),
Biria Sun Life Buy India Fund - Plan A (Dividend) (0.0165) and Biria Sun Life

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Equity Fund - Plan A (Dividend) (0.0135) recorded better performance. It is
interesting to note that only ICICI Prudential FMCG

Fund - Dividend was ranked first under Treynor as well as Sharpe Ratios. In
terms of Sharpe Ratio, the top five performers were ICICI Prudential FMCG
Fund Dividend (0.2837), Biria Sun Life Buy India Fund - Plan A (Dividend)
(0.1846), HDFC Equity Fund - Dividend (0.1644), Principal Child Benefit
Fund (Super Saver) Dividend Option (0.1554) and HDFC Top 200 Fund -
Dividend (0.1518). The overall observations of the above Table show that
selected sample schemes exhibited conflicting performance under Treynor and
Sharpe Ratios. The reason is that sample schemes did not take the same amount
of total risk and market risk. The results of Treynor and Sharpe Ratios of
sample Equity Mutual Fund Schemes (Dividend Option) in the year of 2006
are shown in. It is understood that only fourteen schemes out of thirty five
schemes outperformed their benchmark ratios under Treynor Ratio. The top
five out performing schemes were Biria India Opportunities Fund - Dividend
(0.1824), DSP Merrill Lynch Equity Fund - Regular Plan - Dividend (0.0403),
Principal Growth Fund - Dividend (0.0401), Biria MNC Fund - Dividend
(0.0285) and Biria Sun Life Equity Fund - Plan A Dividend)(0.0277). It is to
be noted from the Table that out of thirty five sample schemes, only ten
schemes out performed under Sharpe Ratio. Schemes like Principal Child
Benefit Fund (Super Saver) - Dividend (0.1179), DSP Merrill Lynch Equity
Fund Regular Plan - Dividend (0.0877), Biria Advantage Fund - Plan A
(Dividend) (0.0755), Biria India Opportunities Fund - Dividend (0.0715) and
LICMF Growth Fund Dividend Option (0.0563) were the best five
performers under Sharpe Ratio.

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The Treynor and Sharpe Ratios of sample Equity Mutual Fund Schemes
(Dividend Option) during the study period of 2002 to 2007 are given in Table -
3.21. It is clear that out of thirty five sample schemes, eighteen sample
schemes under the Treynor Ratio and twenty two sample schemes under the
Sharpe Ratio performed better than that of their benchmark ratios during the
study period. According to the Treynor Ratio, ICICI Prudential FMCG Fund -
Dividend (0.5670), Principal Child Benefit Fund (Super Saver) - Dividend
(0.0990), ING Vysya Select Stock Fund - Dividend (0.0165) DSP Merrill
Lynch Equity Fund - Regular Plan Dividend (0.0151) and Reliance Growth
Fund - Dividend (0.0143) were the five best schemes during the study period.

It is to be noted from the Table that the top five schemes under Sharpe Ratios
ere Principal Child Benefit Fund (Super Saver) - Dividend (0.1286), ICICI
Prudential FMCG Fund - Dividend (0.0845), Birla Sun Life Buy hidia Fund -
Plan A (Dividend) (0.0754) and LICMF Growth Fund - Dividend Option
(0.0723) and Birla Sun Life Equity Fund - Plan A (Dividend) (0.0705). From
the overall analysis of the above Table, it is clear that more than 50 percent of
sample schemes (under Dividend Option) performed better than their
respective benchmarks during the study period.

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CHAPTER-5
ANALYSIS OF STOCK SALECTION ABILITY OF FUND MANAGER

The previous chapter discussed the market timing ability of Mutual Fund
Managers. But an attempt has been made in this chapter to appraise the stock
selection abilities of Mutual Fund Managers by using unconditional and
conditional models. The stock selection skills involve micro forecasting of the
price movements of the individual stock relative to the market and
identification of the individual stocks that are under or over valued relative to
the equities in general. There are a number of models and studies available to
find out the stock selection ability of Fund Managers according to micro
forecasting of market movements. The present study used four models to test
whether Fund Managers generated superior performance through their stock
selection abilities or not. These models are Unconditional and Conditional
Treynor and Mazuy Model and Unconditional and Conditional Henriksson and
Merton Model. The unconditional models check the stock selection ability of
Fund Managers by using stock market movement of bull and bear market
conditions at micro level. The conditional models check the information
efQciency of Fund Managers for selecting the stocks at macro level. For the
purpose of this study, 91 days Treasury Bills Returns, Index Returns for GOI
Bonds with maturity 1 to 3 years, GOI Bonds with maturity 3 to 8 years, GOI
Bonds with greater than 8 years. Dividend Yield of the Market Index and
Global Market Index - S&P GLOBAL 1200 Returns were used to test
informational efficiency of Fund Managers under conditional models.

As stated in chapter 2, the Unconditional TM and HM Models and Conditional


TM and HM Models were used to find out the stock selection ability in terms

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of alpha (a). For the purpose of the analysis, this chapter is grouped into two
sections as follows.

Section - A

Stock Selection Ability of Equity Fund Managers under Unconditional TM


and HM Models. Section - B

Stock Selection Ability of Equity Fund Managers under Conditional TM


and HM Models.

Section - A

Stock Selection Ability of Equity Fund Managers under Unconditional TM and


HM Models.

In order to test stock selection ability of Equity Fund Managers, the sample
Mutual Fund schemes were grouped into two different options, Dividend and
Growth. Hence their stock selection ability in terms of option has been
analyzed. Table - 5.1 demonstrates the stock selection ability of sample Equity
Mutual Fund Schemes' Managers (Dividend) under unconditional TM and HM
Models in the year 2002. It is understood from the Table that out of thirty five
sample schemes under Dividend Option, nineteen sample schemes registered
positive alpha value while sixteen sample schemes recorded negative alpha
value. Reliance Growth Fund Dividend proved their superior performance of
stock selection skills under unconditional TM (a = 0.0018, t-a = 3.2024) and
HM (a = 0.0017, t-a = 2.1978) Models. According to unconditional TM Model,
four sample schemes showed better positive and significant stock selection
ability of Fund Managers at 1% and 5% level. Three sample schemes proved
their better selection skills positively under unconditional HM Models at 1%
and 5% level of significance. Franklin India Prima Fund - Dividend suffered
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under negative stock selection ability under both unconditional TM Model (a =
-0.0022, t-a = -1.9951) and HM Model (a = -0.0041, t-a -2.7211). It may be
concluded that only four Fund Managers of sample schemes under
unconditional TM Model and three sample schemes under unconditional HM
Model enjoyed better stock selection abilities in relation to up and down
market movements.

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The stock selection abilities of sample Equity Mutual Fund Schemes' Managers (Dividend) under
unconditional TM and HM Models in the year 2003 are given in Table - 5.2. It is noted from the
Table that out of thirty five sample schemes, eight sample schemes under unconditional TM Model
and six sample schemes under unconditional HM Model realised better stock selections positively at
1% and 5% level of significance. HDFC Capital Builder Fund - Dividend (a = 0.0017, t-a = 3.6956)
under unconditional TM Model and HDFC Growth Fund - Dividend (a = 0.0052, t-a = 3.5464) under
unconditional HM Model showed better stock selection skills than other sample schemes in 2003.
However, three sample schemes acquired poor earning stocks. The overall analysis of the Table
indicates that only nine sample schemes were identified with positive significant stock selection
ability of Fund Managers in down and up market movements. Rest of the sample schemes did not
possess better stock selection skills under both Models.

Table - 5.3 illustrates the stock selection ability of sample Equity Schemes' Managers (Dividend)
under unconditional TM and HM Models in the year 2004. The stock selection ability of ICICI
Prudential FMCG Fund - Dividend and Principal Child Benefit Fund (Super Saver) - Dividend
realised better earning stocks during up and down market conditions under unconditional TM and
HM Models. It is noted from the Table that the stock selection of HDFC Equity Fund - Dividend (a =
0.0049, t-a = 2.7844) and HDFC Growth - Dividend (a = 0.0052, t-a - 3.1361) reflected superior
stock picking ability under unconditional HM Models only. The overall analysis indicates that stock
selection ability of Fund Managers of different schemes was not good in the year 2004. However,
ICICI Prudential FMCG Fund - Dividend, Principal Child Benefit Fund (Super Saver) - Dividend,
HDFC Equity Fund - Dividend and HDFC Growth - Dividend had acquired better stock in bull and
bear market conditions under unconditional TM and HM Models

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CHAPTER-6
FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

The followings are the major findings of the present study.

1. hidian Mutual Funds Industry is relatively new but it has grown at a rapid
speed influencing various sectors of financial markets and the national
economy.

2. The Mutual Funds is one type of an investment that mobilizes savings of


individuals and institutions and channelises these savings into corporate
securities to provide investors with a steady stream of returns and capital
appreciation.

3. The UTI began its operations in July 1964 by launching its first scheme
namely, US-64 (an Open-Ended Scheme). Later, it launched several innovative
and widely accepted schemes as Children's Gift Growth Fund Unit Scheme in
1986 and Master Share in October 1986, which was the first Closed-Ended
Scheme in India.

4. The net resource mobilization of UTI started with Rs. 1.27 crores in 1965-66
and the amount increased to Rs. 1345.34 crores at the end of the first phase
(1986-87).

5. It is found that during the period 1987-1992, eight new Mutual Funds
Companies, which include six Public Sector Banks and two the Insurance
Corporations, were incorporated.

6. It is to be noted that the net investible resources of Mutual Fund Industry,


which stood at Rs. 1345.34 crores at the end of June 1987, grew exponentially
to Rs. 13021 crores by the end of June 1992.

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7. In India, the private sector was permitted to set up Mutual Funds in 1993. In
the year of 2007-08, the Private Sector Mutual Funds mobilized Rs. 163275
crores.

8. It is found that the total Asset Under Management of Mutual Fimds


Companies has increased nearly five times fi-om 2000 to 2008.

Analysis of Risk and Returns Relationsliip and Traditional Models

9. According to risk and returns analysis of this study, only two sample
schemes, namely, Principal Child Benefit Fund (Super Saver) - Dividend and
ING Vysya Select Stock Fund - Dividend under Dividend Option were
significantly related to their market risk and returns during the study period.

10. It is to be noted fi-om the analysis that there was no significant relationship
between selected sample schemes under Growth Option and the market in
terms of risk and returns relationships during the period 2002 to 2007.

11. The t-alpha values calculated for this study indicate that the majority of the
sample schemes' excess returns were not significantly different from their
market returns.

12. It is clear that more than 50 percent of sample schemes under Dividend
Option performed better than their respective benchmarks during the study
period. At the same time, more than two thirds of sample schemes under
Growth Options outperformed their benchmark but not significantly.

13. From the ranking orders of sample schemes, it was found that schemes
were not equal under both Treynor and Sharpe Ratios. The reason for such
conflict was due to the fact that Sharpe Ratio considered the total risk whereas
the Treynor Ratio considered only the systematic risk.
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SUGGESTIONS TO THE INVESTORS-

1. Investors should first set their investment goal. After that they have to select
the schemes and option according to their goals and returns earning needs.

2. As the Equity Mutual Fund Schemes do assume more risk than other Income
and Balanced Schemes, investors, with appetite for risk, are advised to select
Equity Mutual Funds Schemes for investment.

3. The study found that no one sample fimd performed better under all
measures during the study period. Hence investors must investigate the fiind
performance before they invest their money.

4. The year wise analysis of the present study shows that no one sample
scheme earned either positive or negative value continuously during the entire
study period. Hence investors are advised to select the schemes for investing
based on the long term performance.

5. It is found that out of sample schemes, only 20% of sample schemes


displayed better market timing ability of Fund Managers under conditional TM
and HM Models. Hence investors are advised that they identify the schemes
that have been introduced by Managers with market timing ability before they
invest in that scheme.

6. Mutual Funds operations utilized the public money of investors. Hence Fund
Managers have to use this public money in a proper way and distribute
reasonable returns to investors.

7. Fund Managers must find the portfolio allocation under risk and returns
proposition. After that they have to select the stocks for fund allocation.

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8. In general, high level of risk provides high returns. Hence Equity Fund
Managers are advised to select the correct stocks according to the expectations
of investors.

Scope for Future

Research The present study is an attempt to mainly study the market


timing ability and stock selection ability of Indian Mutual Fund Managers
during the period 2002 to 2007. The scope for further research is summarized
below.

1. The study with similar objectives could be made fi-om time to time.

2. The study with similar objectives could be made with reference to other type
of Mutual Fund Schemes like hicome Mutual Fund Schemes, Different Sector
Mutual Fund Schemes and Debt Mutual Fund Schemes.

3. The study may be conducted with comparative analysis of different types of


Mutual Fund Schemes.

4. The study may be conducted with comparative analysis of Indian and


foreign Mutual Funds performance.

5. The study may cover more economic factors like inflation rate, currency
exchange rate and GDP for analysis. 6. Similar type of study may be attempted
with increasing the study period with similar objectives.

7. The study may analyze the entry and exit load of Mutual Funds Schemes.

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CHAPTER-7

CONCLUSION

Indian Mutual Funds have emerged as strong financial intermediaries


and they play a significant role in bringing stability into the financial system
and efficiency in resource allocation. The present study discussed the different
phases of development of Mutual Funds since the inception to the present
scenario. It encompasses an analysis of the performance of selected sample
Mutual Fund Schemes. The results of this study indicate that the performances
of majority of the sample Equity Schemes were not significantly related to
their market movements during the study period. Further, the study tested the
correlation between systematic risk and total variability of sample Mutual Fund
Schemes.

The present study presented empirical results pertaining to the market


timing and stock selection abilities of Fund Managers under four models
proposed by Treynor and Mazuy (conditional and unconditional models) and
Henriksson and Merton (conditional and unconditional models). Majority of
the sample Mutual Fund Schemes' Managers (Dividend) were not correct
market timers under both unconditional TM and HM Models. Moreover, Fund
Managers of more than fifty percent of sample Mutual Fund Schemes under
Growth Option were not significant market timers under both unconditional
TM and HM Models. However, the stiady found that few sample Schemes'
Managers performed with correct market timing skills significantly under both
conditional TM and HM Models.

It is found that the public information variables are important to be


considered while evaluating fimd stock selection and market timing ability.
The overall results of this study indicate that the Indian Mutual Fund Managers
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did not have adequate information efficiency. Hence it is concluded that the
Indian Mutual Fund Managers must improve their skills relating to internal
activities as well as external market related information so as to promote the
confidence among small investors who prefer to invest their savings in Mutual
Fund. The growth of Indian Mutual Fund Industry mainly depends on Mutual
Fund Managers whose skills in market timing and stock selection would
improve the confidence of the investing public in Mutual Funds Schemes.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY
BOOKS
Amithabh Gupta (2002): Mutual Funds in India, Anmol Publications
PVT.LTD, New Delhi.
Bhalla U K (2008): Investment Management - Security Analysis and
Portfolio
Management, S.Chand & Company Limited, New Delhi
Charles P. Johnes (2003): Mutual Funds, Financial Times Prentice Hall,
USA.
Damodar Gujarati (1999): Essentials of Econometrics, McGraw-Hill
International
Editions, Singapore.
David Lerman (2001): Exchange Traded Funds and e-mini Stock
Index Futures,
John Wiley & Sons Inc, U S A
David Ruppert (2006): Statistics and Finance, Springer (India) Private
Limited, New Delhi.
Donald E.Fischer and Ronald J.Jordan (2005): Security Analysis and
Portfolio
Management, Prentice-Hall of India Private Limited, New Delhi.
Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber, Stephen J. Brown, William N.
Goeatzmann (2007):
Modem Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis, John Wiley &
Sons Inc,

WEBSITE
1. www. amfiindia. com
2. www.bse-india.com
3. www.businessline.com
4. www.cmie.com
5. www.google.com
6. www.investopedia.com

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CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that Saurav Kumar Pandey has


visited our office for his project work titled as "Analysis
Of Mutual Fund" During the project work his work and
behavior was satisfactory.

Place : Rewa Dr. Priyanka Shukla


Date : ................. Deppt. Of B.Com (CA)
Govt. T.R.S. College, Rewa

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DECLARATION

This project report on "ANALYSIS OF MUTUAL


FUNDS" is submitted by me for the partial fulfillment of
the course of VIrd sem. Of B.COM (CA) at T.R.S.
College Rewa

This is an original work done by me except


the guidance received which has been properly
acknowledge in the report.

This is not a copy of any other report and or


any part of it has not been submitted for the award of
any degree or diploma.

Saurav Kumar Pandey


B.Com (CA) VI Semester
T.R.S. Darbaar College Rewa
(M.P.)

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
God give me this opportunity to thank all the people which helped
me to complete my dissertation Report in a very prosperous manner.

I am also indebted to my Head of Department Dr. A.P. Shukla


whose fatherly guidance has been a source of inspiration to me.

I am also grateful to our Guidence Dr. Priyanka Shukla , Dileep


Pandey Sir, Neha Singh Mem & Vivek Pandey Sir whose precious
guidance throughout the session has been of undaunted help to us in
grooming ourselves and without which this work wasn't possible.

I am also thankful to my Parents, younger brothers & all friends and


seniors whose help has given this shape to the report.

Saurav Kumar
Pandey
B.Com (CA) VI Semester
T.R.S. Darbaar College Rewa
(M.P.)

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CONTENTS

Certificate

Declaration

Acknowledgement

CHAPTER : 1 INTRODUCTION 01-09


CHAPTER -2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE 10-14
CHAPTER -3 RESEARCH DESIGN 15-19
3.1Objective of study.
3.2Research Methodology
3.3Method of Data Collection
3.4Limitation
CHAPTER -4 ANALYSIS OF MARKET TIMING ABILITY 20-28
OF MUTUAL FUND MANAGERS
CHAPTER -5 ANALYSIS OF STOCK SALECTION ABILITY 29-33
OF FUND MANAGER
CHAPTER- 6 FINDING, SUGESSTION 34-37
CHAPTER- 7 CONCLUSION 38-39
CHAPTER- 8 BIBLIOGRAPHY 40

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