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adding a fast track line without affecting the times of pa- mance on the anticipated hospital wards to be completed in
tients with higher priority. Centeno et al. (2003) developed the near future. The outline of the patient flows and the as-
a tool that integrated a simulation model and an integer li- sociated processes in the clinical departments are shown in
near program (ILP) to establish the staffing requirements Figure 2. Basically, the outpatient arrives at the reception,
for each period in an emergency department. The simula- has a test, and consults a doctor. After this processing, the
tion model used in the Centeno study established the staff- patient pays expenses and returns home. The electronic
ing requirement for each period, and the ILP produced an medical record was employed for recording the history of
optimum calendar schedule for the staff. Wijewickrama and medical treatment for the patient, but in this study it is uti-
Takakuwa (2004, 2006) developed simulation models by lized to prepare input data to perform simulation. A layout
incorporating an optimization program to identify optimum plan and the precise work shift of the staff were required for
DSMs in an internal medicine department of a hospital. the input data, and a time study on the test, inspection and
treatment activities performed as necessary.
2 BASIC DESCRIPTION OF THE OUTPATIENT The overall flow of the data processing proposed in this
WARD study can be shown mainly as follows:
Acquire a series of raw data, including recep-
The Graduate School of Medicine of Nagoya University has tion/payment data, electronic medical record, ter-
a university hospital which comprises outpatient as well as minal-unit data, and test/inspection data;
inpatient wards with 29 clinical departments and 30 central Process the series of raw data;
clinical facilities. For the fiscal year of 2005, the average Prepare input data for simulation, using the data
number of outpatients was 2061 and inpatients 844 persons generator;
per day. The hospital is presently planning to rebuild the Perform the simulation;
hospital wards because the current building remains supe- Performance measures generated by simulation
rannuated. The new hospital ward will consist of building are used by optimization program to search an op-
with three stories above the ground and one below as shown timum doctor mix for the outpatient department;
in Figure 1. With the coming new buildings, the number of and
the patients is certainly expected to increase after comple- Obtain the optimum doctor mix/es.
tion of the new hospital wards.
P atient A rrival
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Figure 1: Planned Outpatient Hospital Ward at Nagoya
University Hospital Figure 2: Outline of Outpatient Flow and Processes
The data in this study comes from the current hospital First, a series of typical sequencing for the routing of
wards and was used as an average to evaluate the perfor- approximately eight thousand outpatients was investigated
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Takakuwa and Wijewickrama
through the electronic medical records for the specified five observation, with the routing comprised of the reception,
days. Our team observed that the top 152 sequences ac- the gastroenterology department, the orthopedic surgery de-
count for 72.15 percent of all outpatients. Among them, the partment, and finally the payment area. The clinical de-
most frequent group of sequences are illustrated together partments considered in this study were summarized in Ta-
with the frequency and their routings in Table 1. For ex- ble 2 in which the frequency stood for the average number
ample, Sequence Number 90257991 appeared 103 times in that appeared in the sequences of outpatients in the elec-
the electronic medical records of outpatients in five days of tronic medical records.
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Takakuwa and Wijewickrama
In addition, the number of the resource units for the rival time of each patient and the sequence of the routing.
clinical departments were summarized in Table 2. Similar- By making use of the generated data as an external file in-
ly, the parameters of the receptions of the clinical depart- put for the simulation model, experiments were conducted
ments were placed in Table 3, and those of the under specified conditions.
test/inspection departments developed into Table 4.
For the purpose of validating the model and to conduct 3 EXPERIMENTS
experiments of bottleneck situations in clinical departments
of the existing system, a special-purpose data generator was 3.1 Waiting Time
designed using Excel VBA used previously in a number of
healthcare simulations (Wijewickrama 2006; Takakuwa and The above-mentioned procedure for preparing the simula-
Shiozaki 2004), flight scheduling simulation (Takakuwa tion data is further explained in this section as the process
and Oyama 2003) and warehousing distribution centers
(Takakuwa et al. 2000). The generated data included the ar-
of obtaining the patient waiting and consultation times con- ward, ten replications of the simulation were executed. The
sidering the case of two thousand patients or the typical 95% confidence interval on the average percentage of the
congestion in a hospital. In the case of Nagoya university waiting time for some selected clinical departments is
hospital, all associated areas of the outpatient hospital ward shown in Figure 3.
were included in the simulation model used to examine pa- As expected with the simulation, Figure 3 shows that
tient flows, and to collect important statistics including all the waiting time at many of clinical departments remains
waiting time. The simulation models in this study were too long. The waiting times for consultation in the urology
created using Arena (Kelton, Sadowski, and Sadowski and the psychiatry departments were especially longer
2006). compared to those of all other clinical departments.
In order to investigate the waiting and the consultation
times, as well as the degree of congestion inside the hospital
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Takakuwa and Wijewickrama
450
d j 110
300
W aiting T im e (m in.)
250
200
where dj = number of doctors allocated for jth consulta-
150
tion clinic (persons).
100
50
(2) Maximum and minimum number of doctors, respective-
0
11 13 15 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 35 36 37 38 42 49 51 52 56 58 60 62 64
ly, in each consultation clinic:
C linical D epartm ent (N o.)
Figure 3: Simulation Results on Waiting Time d10 4, d10 8 ; d11 1, d11 4; d13 2, d13 5;
d15 1, d15 4 ; d17 1, d17 4; d20 1, d20 2;
3.2 Doctor Schedule Mix (DSM) d22 3, d22 7 ; d23 1, d23 3; d24 3, d24 7;
d25 3, d25 7 ; d26 2, d26 4; d27 1, d27 4;
As a simulation is unable to uncover the best solution, iden- d28 1, d28 4 ; d29 1, d29 4; d30 1, d30 3;
tifying and evaluating the best or near best options for the d31 1, d31 3 ; d33 1, d33 2; d34 1, d34 3;
solution has been impossible to achieve. A simulation can d35 3, d35 5 ; d36 1, d36 3; d37 1, d37 2;
only provide estimates of performance measures and it is d38 1, d38 3 ; d39 1, d39 2; d40 1, d40 2;
not an optimization tool. Therefore, this study combined the d42 1, d42 4 ; d47 2, d47 6; d49 3, d49 7;
simulation model with a deterministic operational research d51 1, d51 5 ; d52 1, d52 3; d54 4, d54 8;
technique that capitalized on the advantages of both tech- d56 1, d56 3 ; d58 3, d58 6; d60 3, d60 6;
niques simultaneously. In order to reduce the long waiting d62 1, d62 4 ; d64 3, d64 7
time of the clinical departments we employed an optimum
DSM using an optimization program in Arena, called Opt- dj 0 and integer for all j appeared in Table 2
Quest.
OptQuest is an optimization program in Arena that uses Initial optimization program was executed one thou-
a special search algorithm to search for the best solution or sand times, and the Figure 4 shows the graph of the above
a near best solution. OptQuest combines the metaheuristics model when the time lapsed after seven hours. Within this
of Tabu Search, Neural Networks, and Scatter Search into a timeframe eight hundred and thirty simulations were ex-
single search heuristic (Kleijnen and Wan 2007) in order to ecuted and this graph established the best result found so far
find the best value for one or multiple objective functions. as a function of the simulation number run. After running
One major advantage with integrating the simulation one thousand different scenarios, the best scenario was dis-
model with an optimization program is that the decision va- covered by the 954th, where the WAPWT was 73.58 mi-
riables of the objective functions are not necessarily in the nutes, which was achieved with 110 doctors. A myriad of
constraints. Based on performance measures like the DSMs were identified which reduced the WAPWT com-
weighted average patient waiting time (WAPWT), which pared to the base case, and Table 5 shows few of these mix-
was generated by the simulation model, the OptQuest can es.
evaluate alternative staffing schedules by altering number The optimum solution cut the WAPWT by 40.34%,
of doctors in each clinic subject to given constraints. which represented a reduction of approximately half of
The objective of the optimization program is to minim- waiting time per patient compared to the existing system at
ize WAPWT for all clinical departments. The existing total the hospital. Interestingly, reducing the total number of doc-
number of doctors was hundred-and-ten (summation of No. tors up to 105 also improved the solution by a 17.31% drop
of doctors in Table 2). Due to resource limitation and hos- in patient waiting time. In other words, 21.35 minutes of
pital policies, there are some upper and lower limits in the waiting time per patient was saved by employing 105 doc-
number of doctors allocated to each department. The opti- tors; which represented a large reduction of idle time of
mization model is as follows; both patients and doctors.
The graph constructed for the existing system in Figure
Minimize: 3 was reproduced for scenario 1 as followed in, Figure 5.
Weighted Average Patient Waiting Time (WAPWT) Except for department number 27, the waiting time was re-
1 n duced considerably with lowering the risk of variability.
WAPWT = xi
n i =1
where xi = ith patient waiting time (min.).
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Takakuwa and Wijewickrama
WAPWT
Simulation Number
Figure 4: Optimization Graph after Seven Hours
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Takakuwa and Wijewickrama
300
250 the base of the section of As-Is and in 10% to 20% incre-
200 mental situations. Moreover, variability in the WAPWT of
150 first two scenarios was negligible compared to the base ex-
100
cept for the 20% incremental situation
50
In the case of decreasing arrivals, surprisingly, the
0
WAPWT for all scenarios were also outperformed com-
11 13 15 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 35 36 37 38 42 49 51 52 56 58 60 62 64
C linical D epartm ent (N o.) pared to the base in any situation, although the variability
was much higher for the fourth scenario.
Figure 5: Scenario 1 Results on Waiting Time 4 SUMMARY
3.3 Sensitivity Analysis 1. A simulation model of the planned outpatient ward of a
university hospital was constructed and used to ex-
A sensitivity analysis was made to explore the validity of amine patient waiting time and congestion.
the optimum doctor mix scenarios due to the changing ar- 2. The method of gathering the required data on times for
rival pattern of the outpatient department. This issue is par- all outpatients and their routes was proposed by per-
ticularly important with the coming new buildings, the forming a simulation and by making use of electronic
number of patients is certainly expected to increase after medical records.
completion of the new hospital wards. 3. Finally, the impact on the WAPWT was analyzed by
identifying an optimum DSM using an optimization
180
program. The program identified scenarios which
could reduce the idle time of patients and doctors
without an additional single resource both in the cur-
WAPWT (min.)
60
It is interesting to observe the results of this study en-
hancing two aspects of the model. One incorporated ap-
pointment scheduling rules in addition to staff scheduling
0 while the second widen the scope of the study by adding
Base 1 2 3 4 Base 1 2 3 4 Base 1 2 3 4
emergency patients to the outpatient model.
As-Is 10% Increase 20% Increase
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
(a) Impact of Increasing Arrival on WAPWT
The authors wish to express sincere gratitude to Dr. Y. Oiso,
140
Deputy Director of Nagoya University Hospital, for the ac-
knowledging support of this study. This research was sup-
ported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research of Japan
WAPWT (min.)
120
100
Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS).
80
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Henderson, B. Biller, M.-H. Hsieh, J. Shortle, J. D. AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIES
Tew, and R. R. Barton, 1523-1531. Piscataway, New
Jersey: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, SOEMON TAKAKUWA is a Professor in the Graduate
Inc. School of Economics and Business Administration at Na-
Takakuwa. S., and T. Oyama. 2003. Simulation analysis of goya University in Japan. He received his B. Sc. and M.
international-departure passenger flows in an airport Sc. degrees in industrial engineering from Nagoya Institute
terminal. In Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation of Technology in 1975 and from the Tokyo Institute of
Conference, ed. S. Chick, P. J. Sanchez, D. Ferrin, and Technology in 1977 respectively. His Ph.D. is in industrial
D. J. Morrice, 1627-1634. Piscataway, New Jersey: In- engineering from The Pennsylvania State University. He
stitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. holds a Doctorate of Economics from Nagoya University.
His research interests include optimization of manufactur-
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Takakuwa and Wijewickrama
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