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Lindsey Stobaugh

POL 102, Section 1

Dr. Zeira

8 April 2016

The Prospects for Democracy in Iran

The country of Iran has received many different labels throughout history, but

democracy has never been one of them. In fact, when Ayatollah Khomeini took over as a result

of the 1979 Iranian Revolution, he and his followers refused to even utter the word democracy

(Samuels 2013b, pp. 416). There are many reasons as to why the country of Iran has never gone

through the process of democratization, and there is question as to if it ever will. Political

scientists have long studied why non-democracies become democracies, and there are many

different factors that contribute to this phenomenon. In this paper, I will look at these different

factors of democratization and I will argue that while Iran possesses many of the factors that

could potentially lead to regime change, the role that the Islamic institutions play in this society

has such a significant presence that it could potentially override the existence of these regime

changing factors.

The first theory of regime change looks at the domestic factors that contribute to the

likelihood of democratization within a given country. According to Samuels, a country with a

high civic culture is more likely to experience a regime change, and this concept includes civic

engagement, political equality, and solidarity (Samuels 2013a, pp. 123). Iran does posses a good

degree of civic engagement as the country holds popular elections in order to elect the president

and members of parliament (Samuels 2013b, pp. 423-424). In 2009, Iran held a presidential

election in which many citizens participated in attempting to rid the position of the hardliner
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Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for a reformist president. Even though the reformist candidate was

projected to win the majority of votes, the incumbent was pronounced the winner. As a result,

many citizens participated in a variety of social movements as they fervently protested and

demonstrated in the streets (Samuels 2013b, pp. 408). Iranians also participate in interest groups

such as labor unions, and there have been many different political parties that have emerged, yet

many have been put down by the state throughout the years (Samuels 2013b, pp. 437-439). The

country possesses political equality as well, as their constitution grants all citizens equality under

the law (Samuels 2013b, pp. 423). Iran does not seem to have a strong sense of solidarity,

though, as many of its citizens rights are repressed by the individuals in power, and hardliners

and reformers do not seem to be very tolerant of each others differing opinions.

Although Iran possesses most of these factors that Samuels puts forth of a civic culture,

the strength of this culture is what truly matters. There is one factor in Iran that contributes to

why this civic culture has been unsuccessful in leading the country to a regime change, and that

is the Islamic institutions that have control over the country and its people. Yes, the people elect

the Iranian President, but the Supreme Leader, whom is not popularly elected, has complete

power over politics (Samuels 2013b, pp. 425). This may have an effect on how many people

participate in elections because many citizens might not see a point in voting for a president who

does not have any real political power. While Iranian citizens have the constitutional right to

create and participate in different political parties, all activities have to conform to Islamic

principles which are defined by the unelected portion of the government (Samuels 2013b, pp.

437). Any party that goes against these Islamic principles are repressed, meaning people are

probably less willing to join a political party that goes against the regime, thus contributing

toward a weaker civil culture.

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Aside from having a civic culture, a countrys economic situation is also important in

regime change. According to Samuels, the two main economic criteria for democratization

within a country are the emergence of a strong middle class and the modernization of the

countrys economy (Samuels 2013a, pp. 125). This shift of class structure did occur in Iran as a

result of the 1979 Revolution as many elites had their properties confiscated from them and left

the country, and a new middle class began to emerge (Samuels 2013b, pp. 433). But in Iran, the

middle class aligned with the religious elite and this created hybrid identities within that

middle class. While many Iranians believe that everyone should be entitled to their individual

rights, they also believe in obeying the Islamic principles that govern them (Samuels 2013b, pp.

433). Through this, it is evident that religion plays a large role in the Iranian society and in what

people feel the role of government is. If religion was not a concern of the citizens of Iran, their

hybrid way of thinking would be non-existent and their belief in individual rights would prevail,

thus creating more of an atmosphere for democratization.

This class conflict argument is not the only element that goes into the economic theory of

democratization, though as the modernization of the countrys economy also plays a role. The

modernization theory states that with economic expansion a countrys citizens will acquire

values that align more with a democratic way of thinking (Samuels 2013a, pp. 127). Iran is

divided between hardliners, who believe that the government should remain loyal to Islamic

principles, and reformists, who wish to increase the power of those directly elected individuals

(Samuels, 2013b, pp. 417). In 1997, Mohammad Khatami won the presidential election on a

reformist platform and attempted to implement modernizing reforms throughout the country.

Many citizens were now beginning to realize that the hardliners had real control and that elected

officials had no real political power, so many citizens began to rally and distrust the authority of
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those non-elected political authorities (Samuels 2013b, pp. 419). The fact that these people began

to develop a political consciousness after attempts at modernizing the economy aligns with the

modernization theory, and those effects can be seen in the case of the 2009 election, but Samuels

also mentions the idea of a short-term catalyst that can thwart the development of regime

change in a country (Samuels 2013a, pp. 137). As these Iranian citizens were developing this

political consciousness, the events of 9/11 struck the world and would further decrease the

chances of regime change (Samuels 2013b, pp. 419). Samuels states that support from foreign

countries, such as the U.S., can promote democracy within a country, but this had the opposite

effect in Iran. Iranian officials saw the U.S.s attempt to promote democracy in their country as

a threat and retaliated in a harsh manner, tightening their grip on the rights of its population

(Samuels 2013b, pp. 420).

Iran does possess many of the requirements that Samuels argues that contribute to regime

change in a given country. It has a civic culture with citizens engaged in voting, social

movements, and political parties; the country possesses political equality; and they saw a rise of

the middle class and the modernization of their economy, but the Islamic institutions of this

country play a large role in suppressing those factors. There is one domestic requirement that

Iran fails to possess, though, and that is that the military is not under the command of civilian

authorities (Samuels 2013a, pp. 129). In Iran, the commander in chief of the army is the non-

elected Supreme Leader, rather than the democratically elected president (Samuels 2013b, pp.

425). Iran may also fall under Samuels resource curse argument as oil production in Iran has

played a large role in the way the government has developed throughout the years (Samuels

2013a, pp. 128 and Samuels 2013b, pp. 413). It is evident that if the Islamic institutions in Iran

did not exist that the country would most likely become a democracy, but because they have such
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a stronghold on the internal affairs of the country, this is a contributor, along with the countrys

low solidarity and military situation, as to why Iran has not been able to make that transition. So,

the prospects for democratization in Iran seem unlikely unless the Islamic institutions power is

decreased.
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Works Cited

Samuels, David J. Comparative Politics. New York: Pearson Education, 2013a. Print.

Samuels, David J. Case Studies in Comparative Politics. New York: Pearson Education, 2013b.
Print.