PROGNOSTIC SIMULATION OF DEMAND FOR THE PRODUCT OR SERVICE

NAME OF THE COMPANY: PRODUCTOS RAMO

MAIN BUSINESS AREA: FOODS

SEVEN STEPS TO MAKE A FORECASTING SYSTEM:

USES:

All organizations plan their future conditions, which is not known for sure, forecasts used in
its different functional areas. Some use cases forecasts the company are:

In the marketing area is forecast how the market will grow, what will be the
competitors own participation, which will be the trend of prices, what are the new products
that will shake the market will be

In the area of production forecasts on the cost and availability of raw materials, the
cost and availability of labor are made, when maintenance is required for equipment, what
the plant capacity needed to meet demand

In the financial area are forecast what the benchmark interest rate will be for the
credits, what the level of bad debts, how much capital will be required to expand the own
capacity

In human resources forecasts on the number of workers required, staff turnover,

absenteeism trends, training needs

At the strategic level is forecast on economic factors, price changes, costs, growing
product lines

ITEMS:

1. Determine the use of the forecast.

2. Select the items to be predicted.

3. Determine the time horizon of the forecast.

4. Select the prediction models.

5. Gather the data necessary to make the forecast.

6. Make the forecast.

7. Validate and implement the results.

TIME HORIZON:

Short-range forecast:

In the company we used this method for scheduling and good production levels.

Long-range forecast:

We could implement this forecast planning to launch new chocolate cookies which would
take us at least two years of study.

MODEL:

Micro forecasts, Involve small details and interest to the media and frontline levels.

DATA GATHERING:

Programming a company and serve as inputs for financial, marketing and planning staff.

the business cycle is analyzed

MAKING:

In our company we are dedicated to producing gourmet cookies, with the highest
standards of quality, biscuits sold all year especially on special occasions like Mother's
Day, Easter and Christmas, so our product has a seasonal demand.
VALIDATION AND IMPLEMENTATION:

Iso 22000

Decree 3075 of 1997

FORECAST AND TRENDS

perio demand Simple error weighted error

d Moving moving average
Average
n=3
1 151200
2 180000
3 174000
4 100000 168400 68400 170100 70100
5 32000 151333 119333 142200 110200
6 25000 102000 77000 87900 62900
7 35000 52333 17333,3 45850 10850
8 48900 30667 -18233,3 31250 -17650
9 87000 36300 -50700 38755 -48245
10 54000 56967 2966,7 62570 8570
11 72000 63300 -8700 62625 -9375
12 81500 71000 -10500 70350 -11150
1040600
 200000

150000

100000 demand
simple moving everage
n=3
50000
error
weighted moving average
0 error2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-50000

-100000

SHORT-TERM TRENDS tendencias a corto plazo

periodo Trends simple Trends weighted

1 N/A N/A
2 N/A N/A
3 N/A N/A
4 168400 170100

MEDIUM TERM TRENDS

period Trends simple Trends weighted

5 151333 142200
6 102000 87900
7 52333 45850
8 30667 31250

LARGE-TERM TRENDS

period Trends simple Trends weighted

 9 36300 38755
10 56967 62570
11 63300 62625
12 71000 70350