International Commodity Evening Update

Friday, 05 May 2017

Content
Market Highlights

Days overview

Outlook

Important Events for Today

Research Team

Prathamesh Mallya Kaynat Chainwala

Chief Analyst (Non-Agro Commodities & Currency) Research Analyst
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 International Commodity Evening Update
Friday, 05 May 2017

News and Analysis Performance during the day as at 4.00 pm 5th May 2017

Global markets cautiously await US NFP, French elections. INDEX OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE %CHG
UK Services PMI rose to 55.8-mark in May17. NIFTY 9374.55 9377.10 9272.00 9285.30 -0.80

LME Copper stocks jumped by 11.6 percent on Thursday. 30142.14 30176.55 29823.60 29858.80 -0.89
SENSEX

KOSPI 2224.91 2241.24 2224.91 2241.24 0.97

European markets are trading mixed ahead of US NFP data and
French elections due on Sunday. Asian markets are trading mixed FTSE 7248.10 7262.28 7222.81 7222.81 0.10
and the US stocks futures are trading in the red.
Source: Reuters
as at 4.00 pm 5th May 2017
Gold prices are trading lower today by 0.53 percent at $1235 per
INDEX OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE %CHG
ounce while MCX gold prices are trading higher by 0.57 percent at
DOLLAR 98.63 98.76 98.58 98.755 0.11
Rs.28233 per 10 gms. Gold rose on Friday as investors took refuge
INDEX
in the safe-haven bullion as stock prices tumbled on the back of EURO/$ 1.0988 1.0989 1.0954 1.0957 -0.25
sliding oil and iron ore prices, but the yellow metal was on track SPOT
INR/$ SPOT 64.22 64.38 64.22 64.375 0.27
for its biggest weekly decline in nearly six months.
Source: Reuters
as at 4.00 pm 5th May 2017
LME Copper prices are trading higher by 0.5 percent at $5566.5/t,
rebounding from five-month lows touched in the previous COMMODITY UNIT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE %CHG
session. However, Copper fundamentals for the time being still
SPOT GOLD $/oz 1227.8 1236 1226 1234.7 0.6
remains bearish as global markets are cautiously awaiting US NFP
report. Also, the upcoming second round of French elections will COMEX GOLD $/oz 1227.0 1234 1227 1233.3 0.6

restrict risk appetite. Apart from this, unprecedented surge in MCX GOLD Rs/10 gms 28140.0 28250 28140 28240.0 0.6
LME stocks for the last three days in a row has raised global
SPOT SILVER $/oz 16.3 17 16 16.5 1.0
supply concerns. LME Copper stocks jumped by a whopping 40
percent this week itself. Latest supply disruption concerns with COMEX SILVER $/oz 16.4 16 16 16.5 1.1

the recent strike at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia could not MCX SILVER Rs/kg 37900.0 38147 37900 38096.0 1.0
support prices much. MCX Copper prices are trading higher by 0.7
CRUDE OIL $/bbl 45.5 46 44 45.5 0.0
percent at Rs.360.9 per kg. NYMEX
ICE BRENT 48.5 49 47 48.5 0.3
CRUDE
Crude oil prices are trading higher today by 0.07 percent at
MCX CRUDE OIL Rs/bbl 2917.0 2958 2839 2936.0 0.2
$45.55 per barrel while MCX oil prices are trading higher by 0.14
percent at Rs.2935 per barrel. Oil prices fell to fresh five-month COPPER LME - 3 $/tonne 5545.5 5575 5524 5566.5 0.5
MONTH
lows on Friday on concerns about a persistent glut despite MCX COPPER Rs/kg 358.2 361 358 360.9 0.7
assurances from Saudi Arabia that Russia was ready to join OPEC
ZINC LME - 3 $/tonne 2573.5 2586 2546 2575.5 0.1
in extending supply cuts. MONTH
ZINC MCX Rs/kg 164.6 166 164 165.7 0.3

LEAD LME - 3 $/tonne 2194.0 2194 2167 2180.0 -0.7

MONTH
LEAD MCX Rs/kg 140.7 141 140 140.8 -0.5

NICKEL LME - 3 $/tonne 9005.0 9015 8905 8970.0 -0.4

MONTH
NICKEL MCX Rs/kg 577.8 581 575 579.1 -0.2

ALUMINUM $/tonne 1916.0 1923 1910 1917.5 0.0

LME - 3 MONTH
MCX Rs/kg 122.8 123 123 123.3 0.3
ALUMINIUM
 International Commodity Evening Update
Friday, 05 May 2017

Outlook

Gold prices will continue its weakness, although we have seen it positive in todays trading session, the factors influencing gold
prices are still in a weak territory.

Continuous withdrawal of inventories in the US will have a changed effect on price effect in oil counter. Summer driving
season will see gasoline demand coming in turn change in oil prices. However, the trend remains weak in the counter.

Copper prices are expected to trade lower today as investors will keenly watch NFP numbers from the US due today. Also, risk
appetite will be lower this week ahead of Sunday's French presidential election second round.

Technical Outlook for evening session May 5, 2017 (CMP as of 4.00 pm)
S2 S1 LTP R1 R2
GOLD MCX JUNE17 Rs/10 gm 28000 28120 28225 28350 28460
SPOT GOLD $/oz 1224 1230 1236 1242 1247
GOLD HEDGE MAY17 25300 25400 25471 25560 25670
SILVER MCX MAY17 Rs /kg 37920 38220 38420 38670 39020
SPOT SILVER $/oz 16.15 16.35 16.50 16.70 16.85
LME COPPER $/tonne 5480 5520 5560 5590 5630
COPPER MAY17 Rs /kg 355 357 361 363 366
ZINC MAY17 Rs /kg 163.90 164.70 165.7 166.30 167.20
LEAD MAY17 Rs /kg 138.85 139.65 140.55 141.15 141.95
ALUMINUM MAY17 Rs /kg 121.60 122.40 123.20 123.80 124.50
NICKEL MAY17 Rs /kg 562 570 579.00 587 594
CRUDE OIL MAY17 Rs /bbl 2860 2900 2935 2980 3020
NYMEX CRUDE OIL $/bbl 44.40 45.05 45.54 46.10 46.60

MCX NATURAL GAS MAY17 Rs/mmbtu 201 205 207.00 210 212

th
Economic indicators to be released on 5 May, 2017
INDICATOR COUNTRY TIME (IST) ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS IMPACT

Average Hourly Earnings m/m US 6:00pm - 0.3% 0.2% High

Non-Farm Employment Change US 6:00pm - 194K 98K High

Unemployment Rate US 6:00pm - 4.6% 4.5% High

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks US 11:00pm - - - High