Friday, July 23, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

EUR/USD: (1.2896) New recovery high on move above 1.2454 has approached last target at
1.3032.

FOREX EUR=EBS,39 (1.2896, 1.2900, 1.2896, 1.2897, +0.0000)

1.3029
HOURLY CHARTS 1.305
1.300
1.295
1.290
1.285
1.280
1.275
1.2723
1.270
1.265
1.260
1.255
1.2454 1.250
1.245
1.240
1.235
1.230
1.225
1.220
1.215
1.210
1.2110
1.205
1.200
1.195
1.190
1.1876 1.185
1.180
27 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July
New recovery high on move above 1.2454 (see graph: neckline Head&Shoulders bottom) has approached last
target of pattern (1.3032).
Trying to extend back above channel off 1.1876 (see graph).
Support area at 1.2877/ .2871 (break-up hourly/ broken daily Short Term Moving Average↓), with next levels at
1.2839 (reaction low hourly), ahead of 1.2787/ .2782 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↑/ daily envelope bot-
tom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.2758/ .2732 (modified daily Standard Error band bottom/ current reaction low off
1.3029): tough on 1st attempts..
Resistance at 1.2933/ .2951 (reaction high hourly/ breakdown hourly + daily envelope top), where pause fa-
vored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3029/ .3032 (current recovery high off year low/ see above), ahead of 1.3054 (modified
daily Alpha beta trend top) and 1.3095 (daily Bollinger top + May 10 high): tough on 1st tests, amid overex-
tended readings.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
1.2877/ .2871 (see above) 1.2933/ .2951 (see above/ daily envelope top +
breakdown hourly)
1.2839 (reaction low hourly) 1.3029/ .3032 (see above)
1.3054/ .3095 (see above/ daily Bollinger top + May
1.2787/ .2782 (daily MT MA↑/ daily envelope bottom)
10 high)
KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Friday, July 23, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

USD/JPY: (86.91) New year low but currently back in channel off 94.99 (see graph)
FOREX JPY=EBS,39 (86.91, 86.93, 86.85, 86.91, +0.00)
92.89
93.0

92.5

92.0

91.5

91.0

90.5

90.0

89.5
89.15

89.0

88.5

88.0

87.5

87.0
86.96
86.5

86.27
86.0

27 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

New year low scored on move below daily Uptrendline off 2009 low (90.55 today) but currently back in channel
off 94.99 (see graph).
Resistance at .87.23/ 87.44 (today’s high?/ daily envelope top), with next levels at 87.58/ .64 (current week high/
daily Medium Term Moving Average↓), ahead of 87.77/ 87.81 (weekly Short Term Moving Average↓/ daily
Bollinger midline), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 88.06/ .08 (breakdown daily/ hourly), ahead of 88.29 (reaction high hourly + modified
daily Standard Error band top): tough on 1st attempts.

1st support area at 86.55/ 86.34 (daily envelope bottom/ current week low), with next levels at 86.31/ 86.27 (daily
Bollinger bottom/ current new year low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next level at 86.06 (monthly daily envelope bottom + modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom), ahead of
85.80 (modified daily Standard Error band bottom) and 85.43/ 85.22 (broken weekly channel top off Aug 2008/
daily Starc bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

86.55/ .34 (daily envelope bottom/ current week low) 87.23/ .44 (see above/ daily envelope top)

86.31/ .27 (daily Bollinger bottom/ current year low) 87.58/ .87.64 (current week high/ daily MT MA↓)
86.06/ 85.80 (monthly envelope bottom + see above/ see
87.77/ 87.81 (weekly ST MA↓/ daily Bollinger midline)
above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Friday, July 23, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/GBP: (.8434) Rebound off new year low tested channel top off .8810 (see graph)
FOREX EURGBP=,22 (0.8433, 0.8437, 0.8431, 0.8434, +0.0001)
.8532

0.850

0.845

.8382 0.840

0.835

.8317 0.830

0.825

.8210 0.820

.8180
0.815

0.810

.8067 0.805

28 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Rebound off new year low broke daily channel off .9130 (broken top at .8309 today), with drop from .8532 having
retested .8382 (see graph).

1st Support area at .8419 (break-up hourly), with next levels at .8401/ .8398 (daily Medium Term Moving Aver-
age↑/ daily envelope bottom), ahead of .8376/ .8372 (current week low/ daily Stop And Reverse + modified daily
Standard Error band bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8357/ .8354 (reaction low hourly/ 38.2% .8067 to .8532): tough on 1st attempts.
1st Resistance area at .8444 (daily Short Term Moving Average↓),with next levels at .8466/ .8478 (reaction highs
hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8485/ .8490 (daily envelope top/ breakdown hourly), ahead of .8532 (current recovery
high off year low): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8419 (see above) .8444 (daily ST MA↓)

.8401/ .8398 (daily MT MA↑/ daily envelope bottom) .8466/ .8478 (see above)

.8376/ .8372 (current week low/ daily SAR + see

.8485/ .8490 (daily envelope top/ breakdown hourly)
above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Friday, July 23, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/JPY: (112.07) Rebound off new year low reapproached 113.43 (see graph)
FOREX EURJPY=EBS (112.09, 112.10, 112.00, 112.07, -0.01)
114.5

114.0

113.43
113.5

113.0

112.5

112.0

111.5

110.90 111.0

110.5

110.0

109.5

109.0

108.5

108.0

108.06 107.5

107.30 107.0

26 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Rebound off new year low reapproached 113.43, with drop having tested Flag bottom (see graph): Resistance at
112.65 (today’s high?), with next levels at 112.79/ .85 (reaction highs hourly), ahead of 112.96 (daily envelope
top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 113.40/ .43 (July 15 high/ June 21 high + neckline daily Double bottom): tough on 1st at-
tempts

1st Support area at 111.72 (break-up hourly), with next levels at 111.16 (daily Bollinger midline), ahead of 110.99/

.91 (break-up hourly/ daily envelope bottom), where pause favored.

If wrong, next levels at 110.78/ .74 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom/ modified daily Standard Error band bot-

tom), ahead of 110.02/ 109.91 (current week low/ weekly envelope bottom): tough on 1st tests.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

111.72 (see above) 112.65/ .85 (see above)

111.16 (daily Bollinger midline) 112.96 (daily envelope top)

110.99./ .91 (daily envelope bottom/ see above) 113.40 113.43 (July 15 high/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Friday, July 23, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5