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Relation of Alanine Aminotransferase Levels to

Cardiovascular Events and Statin Efcacy


Paulo H.N. Harada, MD, MPH, PhDa, Nancy R. Cook, ScDa, David E. Cohen, MD, PhDb,
Nina P. Paynter, PhDa, Lynda Rose, MSa, and Paul M Ridker, MD, MPHa,*

The relation between hepatic serum markers within the normal range and cardiovascular
risk is uncertain. We sought to address this issue within a prospective randomized trial of
statin therapy. Men and women (n [ 17,515) free of cardiovascular disease participating in a
randomized placebo controlled trial of rosuvastatin 20 mg/day had baseline levels of alanine
aminotransferase (ALT) below <40 IU/l and were followed prospectively for the rst-ever
cardiovascular events. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the relative
risks of these events according to increasing tertiles and each SD increase in baseline ALT
levels. ALT levels at study entry, all within the normal range, were inversely associated with
age, smoking status, and inammation and were positively associated with male gender,
alcohol use, and triglycerides. Incident cardiovascular event rates were highest in those in the
lowest tertile of baseline ALT; specically, incidence rates were 1.43, 0.98, and 0.85 per 100
person-years of exposure for those in the lowest, middle, and highest tertile of baseline ALT
within the normal range, respectively (p <0.001). These inverse effects remained statistically
signicant after multivariate adjustment for a wide range of vascular risk factors risk
markers such that each higher SD unit of ALT was associated with an 18% lower event rate
(relative risk 0.82, 95% condence interval 0.72 to 0.93, p [ 0.002). The efcacy of statin
therapy was not modied by baseline ALT level. In conclusion, increasing ALT levels within
the normal range are inversely associated with future cardiovascular risk but had limited
clinical utility and also did not modify the efcacy of statin therapy. 2016 Elsevier Inc.
All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2016;118:49e55)

Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is released by the liver those with ALT levels higher than the upper limit of normal
both in pathologic and normal physiological conditions. obtain a greater relative risk reduction from lipid-lowering
Clinically, levels of ALT above the upper limit of normality therapy versus those with normal ALT levels.8,9 Whether
have been associated with increased risks for hepatic and the efcacy of statin therapy is modied by ALT levels within
cardiovascular events,1 in part due to underlying nonalcoholic the normal range, however, is uncertain. We addressed these
fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its consequent effects on issues in the Justication for the Use of statins in Prevention:
metabolic dysfunction and diabetes.2,3 Besides, statin therapy an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin (JUPITER)
can increase ALT levels and elevations over 3 times the upper trial, a contemporary randomized double-blind placebo-
normal limit of ALT have in turn been considered a relative controlled evaluation of rosuvastatin 20 mg. That trial
contraindication for therapy with this class of lipid-lowering included 17,515 apparently healthy men and women with
agent.4 In contrast, recent data have suggested an apparent ALT levels 40 IU/l who were followed prospectively for
paradox between ALT levels within the normal range, inci- future vascular events.10
dent vascular event rates, and the efcacy of statin therapy. In
particular, prospective cohort studies have reported inverse Methods
relations between ALT levels within the normal range and The sample was derived from JUPITER (ClinicalTrial.
subsequent risks for cardiovascular events and all-cause gov NCT00239681), a randomized, double-blind, placebo-
mortality such that those in higher ALT stratum have controlled trial designed to investigate whether rosuvastatin
reduced event rates versus those in the lower ALT group.5e7 20 mg/day compared to placebo decreases the rate of the
Furthermore, reports from 2 statin trials have suggested that rst-ever cardiovascular events in apparently healthy men
aged >50 years and women >60 years with low-density
a
Center for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention, Divisions of Preventive lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol <130 mg/dl who were at
Medicine and Cardiovascular Diseases, and bDivision of Gastroenterology, increased vascular risk because of a high-sensitivity C
Brigham and Womens Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mas- reactive protein (hsCRP) level 2 mg/l.10 The full details of
sachusetts. Manuscript received December 9, 2015; revised manuscript
the trial protocol have been previously presented.10 The trial
received and accepted April 8, 2016.
exclusion criteria included diabetes, treatment with any
Funding Sources: The JUPITER trial was supported by an investigator-
initiated research grant from AstraZeneca.
lipid-lowering therapy in the 6 weeks preceding randomi-
Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrial.gov NCT00239681. zation, current use of postmenopausal hormonal replace-
See page 54 for disclosure information. ment therapy, previously known ALT levels higher than 2
*Corresponding author: Tel: (617) 732-8790; fax: (617) 734-1508. times the upper limit of normal, creatinine >2.0 mg/dl,
E-mail address: pridker@partners.org (P.M. Ridker). uncontrolled hypertension or hypothyroidism, a history of

0002-9149/16/$ - see front matter 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. www.ajconline.org
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amjcard.2016.04.012
50 The American Journal of Cardiology (www.ajconline.org)

Table 1
Baseline clinical characteristics of the study population according to increasing tertiles of alanine aminotransferase measured at study entry
ALT Range (IU/L) Lower Intermediate Higher p value

11 12-16 >16


N 5505 N 5896 N 6114

Age (years) 68.8 (7.7) 66.4 (7.4) 63.6 (7.1) <0.001


Men 48.2% 60.5% 74.6% <0.001
Body mass index (kg/m2) 27.9 (6.0) 28.9 (5.4) 30.0 (5.7) <0.001
Waist Circumference (cm) 95.5 (13.6) 98.7 (14.1) 102.3 (13.2) <0.001
Alcohol 1 drink per day 13.3% 18.3% 23.4% <0.001
Current Smoker 18.6% 15.0% 14.1% <0.001
Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (ml/min) 74.3 (18.8) 74.9 (17.1) 76.6 (16.3) <0.001
Family History of Early Coronary Heart Disease 10.8% 11.6% 12.2% 0.068
Metabolic Syndrome 33.9% 39.5% 50.5% <0.001
Hypertension 57.2% 56.6% 57.9% 0.361
Systolic Blood Pressure (mmHg) 135 (17) 136 (17) 136 (17) <0.001
Diastolic Blood Pressure (mmHg) 80 (9) 81 (9) 82 (9) <0.001
Fasting Glucose (mg/dl) 92.7 (11.1) 94.7 (11.5) 96.8 (11.9) <0.001
HbA1C (%) 5.7 (0.5) 5.7 (0.4) 5.7 (0.4) 0.200
Total Cholesterol (mg/dl) 182 (25) 184 (24) 184 (24) <0.001
HDL Cholesterol (mg/dl) 53.3 (15.6) 51.7 (15.0) 49.2 (14.9) <0.001
LDL Cholesterol (mg/dl) 104 (19) 105 (18) 104 (19) 0.748
Triglycerides (mg/dl)* 107 (80 e 149) 117 (84 e 166) 132 (93 e 193) <0.001
Apolipoprotein-a (mg/dl) 167 (31) 166 (31) 164 (30) <0.001
Apolipoprotein-b (mg/dl) 105 (21) 109 (21) 112 (22) <0.001
High sensitive C Reactive Protein (mg/L)* 4.7 (3.0 - 8.3) 4.2 (2.8 - 6.8) 4.1 (2.8 - 6.5) <0.001
Framingham Risk Score* 10 (5 e 16) 10 (6 e 16) 11 (6 e 16) <0.001
Reynolds Risk Score* 10.0 (5.5 e 17.3) 9.6 (5.6 e 16.1) 9.4 (5.9 e 15.5) 0.009
Drug (Rosuvastatin) 50.0% 50.2% 49.6% 0.801
Delta LDL Cholesterol (mg/dL) -14 (-49 e 6) -12 (-51 e 7) -14 (-51 - 7) 0.521

Continuous variables expressed by means (standard deviations) or median (interquartile range) signaled by *; meanwhile categorical ones expressed by
percentage unless otherwise specied. Delta LDL cholesterol LDL cholesterol at 12 months  baseline LDL cholesterol.

malignancy within 5 years, or another serious medical circumference categories (normal 102 cm for men and
condition that might compromise patient safety or success- 88 cm for women, and abnormal otherwise), alcohol
ful completion of the study. consumption categories (no or infrequent use if less than
Of 17,783 participants enrolled in this trial, 268 had weekly consumption and regular otherwise), metabolic
baseline ALT levels >40 IU/l, the upper normal limit cutoff syndrome, and Reynolds risk score (<7.5% and 7.5%)
in the trial. Thus, the present analysis included 17,515 categories. Rosuvastatin relative risk reductions were
participants with baseline ALT levels within the study compared to placebo for each ALT tertile to evaluate effect
normal limits. Differences in clinical characteristics and 10- modication. We also displayed the age- and gender-
year predicted risk Framingham-based ATP-III risk esti- adjusted cumulative incident cardiovascular events curves
mator11 and Reynolds risk score12,13 between those in each for treatment arms within each ALT tertile and the age- and
ALT tertile were tested for trend by linear regression if gender-adjusted HRs for rosuvastatin versus placebo. To
normal and Jonckheere-Terpstra for nonparametric or cate- address the HR for events across the ALT range in a more
gorical variables. We displayed the age- and gender- exible way, we plotted adjusted smoothed spline with ALT
adjusted cumulative incident cardiovascular events curves knots at the 5, 25, 50, 75, and 95 percentiles values.
for ALT tertiles and the age- and gender-adjusted hazard Cardiovascular risk prediction based on Reynolds risk
ratios (HRs) of the second and third tertiles versus the rst. score was compared in models with and without the addition of
The relation of baseline ALT levels with future vascular ALT in nonstatin users. The Reynolds risk score predicts
events was addressed by its tertiles and SD units in Cox cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and cor-
proportional hazards models to calculate crude and adjusted onary revascularization. We compared C-statistics for the 2
incidence rates for the composite end point of myocardial models and computed the integrated discrimination improve-
infarction, stroke, arterial revascularization, hospitalization ment (IDI) and relative IDI and categorical net reclassication
for unstable angina pectoris, or death from cardiovascular improvement (NRI). The group cutoffs for NRI were 1% and
causes. Models were adjusted for age, gender, waist 1.5%, which correspond to 5% and 7.5% risk in 10 years of
circumference, smoking status, alcohol consumption, sys- follow-up assuming events accumulate linearly every 2 years.
tolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, plasma lipid levels, JUPITER was an investigator-initiated trial. The sponsor
statin treatment, and hsCRP. Effect modication was of the study collected the trial data and monitored the study
addressed by stratied analyses according to age categories sites but had no access to unblinded data until after the
(<65 and 65 years), gender, smoking status, waist drafting of the trial primary report. All statistical analyses
Preventive Cardiology/ALT Levels, Statins, and Vascular Events 51

Figure 1. Cardiovascular events accumulated incidence by ALT tertiles. Age- and gender-adjusted cumulative incidence of cardiovascular events in the
JUPITER trial according to increasing tertile of ALT levels within the normal range. ALT tertiles: L for lower, I for intermediate, and H for higher. HR: age-
and gender-adjusted hazard ratio for vascular events.

Table 2
Baseline levels of alanine aminotransferase and the risk of future cardiovascular events
ALT Range (IU/L) Lower Tertile Intermediate Tertile Higher Tertile p value for trend HR per 1-SD p value
Increase
11 (N5505) 12-16 (N5896) >16 (N6114)

Primary Events (%) 163 (3.0%) 122 (2.1%) 107 (1.8%)


Cardiovascular Death (%) 33 (0.6%) 15 (0.3%) 16 (0.3%)
Stroke (%) 54 (1.0%) 22 (0.4%) 19 (0.3%)
Myocardial Infarction (%) 33 (0.6%) 38 (0.6%) 25 (0.4%)
Hosp. Unstable Angina (%) 15 (0.3%) 10 (0.2%) 17 (0.3%)
Arterial Revascularization (%) 46 (0.8%) 55 (0.9%) 45 (0.7%)
Primary Events/100 person years 1.43 0.98 0.85
HR Primary Event (Model 1) Ref. 0.73 (0.58 - 0.93) 0.68 (0.53 - 0.88) 0.003 0.78 (0.69 - 0.89) <0.001
HR Primary Event (Model 2) Ref. 0.77 (0.60 - 0.98) 0.73 (0.56 - 0.96) 0.017 0.81 (0.72 - 0.92) 0.001
HR Primary Event (Model 3) Ref. 0.78 (0.61 - 0.99) 0.74 (0.57 - 0.97) 0.025 0.82 (0.72 - 0.93) 0.002

Cardiovascular death, stroke, myocardial infarction, hospitalization for unstable angina and arterial revascularization events outnumber primary events in
each tertile due to the occurrence of 2 simultaneous events as part of the primary outcome.
Cox proportional model: Hazards ratio (HR) (95% Condence Interval) for composite primary outcome.
Right-hand of the table hazards ratio of alanine aminotransferase per each standard deviation (SD) unit.
Model 1: Age and gender adjusted.
Model 2: Model 1 plus waist circumference, smoking status, alcohol consumption, blood pressure, fasting glucose, HDL cholesterol, log triglycerides and
treatment arm.
Model 3: Model 2 log C reactive protein.

were done by the investigators and the academic study tertile (>16 IU/l), were more likely to smoke, had moder-
statistician. Trial principal investigator (P.M.R.) had full ately higher levels of hsCRP, and a higher Reynolds risk
access to all study data and had nal responsibility for the score (Table 1). In contrast, those in the highest tertile of
decision to submit these data for publication. ALT at baseline were more likely to be men, had more
prevalent daily alcohol consumption, higher body mass in-
Results
dex, and higher levels of triglycerides. Despite younger age,
JUPITER trial participants in the lowest tertile of ALT those in the highest baseline tertile of ALT had a signi-
(11 IU/l) were signicantly older than those in the highest cantly greater prevalence of metabolic syndrome, had more
52 The American Journal of Cardiology (www.ajconline.org)

Table 3
Stratied levels of ALT and the risk of future cardiovascular events
Events / N HR per 1-SD Increase p value P for
interaction

<65 years 117 / 7275 0.82 (0.66 - 1.02) 0.075 0.706


65 years 275 / 10240 0.83 (0.72 - 0.97) 0.015
Male 283 / 10782 0.84 (0.73 - 0.98) 0.023 0.087
Female 109 / 6733 0.73 (0.56 e 0.95) 0.018
Non smokers 298 / 14742 0.78 (0.67 - 0.91) 0.001 0.364
Smokers 94 / 2766 0.95 (0.75 - 1.21) 0.685
Placebo 250 / 8769 0.83 (0.71 - 0.97) 0.020 0.525
Rosuvastatin 142 / 8746 0.81 (0.65 - 1.00) 0.050
Normal WC 200 / 8479 0.82 (0.69 - 0.97) 0.022 0.808
Increased WC 192 / 9036 0.81 (0.67 - 0.97) 0.021
No or Infrequent 235 / 10268 0.86 (0.73 - 1.01) 0.058 0.781
Alcohol
Regular Alcohol 157 / 7240 0.78 (0.64 - 0.96) 0.019
Figure 2. ALT levels and adjusted hazard ratio for cardiovascular events. No Metabolic 222 / 10165 0.84 (0.71 - 0.99) 0.037 0.754
Adjustment for age, gender, waist circumference, smoking status, alcohol Syndrome
consumption, blood pressure, fasting glucose, high-density lipoprotein Metabolic 168 / 7228 0.79 (0.65 - 0.96) 0.016
cholesterol, log triglycerides, treatment arm, and log hsCRP. Spline y axis in Syndrome
log scale and knots at 5, 25, 50, 75, and 95 percentiles of ALT distribution. Reynolds <7.5 55 / 6570 0.66 (0.45 - 0.96) 0.028 0.215
Reynolds 7.5 335 / 10856 0.85 (0.74 - 0.97) 0.016
coronary heart disease risk factors, and higher Framingham
risk score. Finally, the LDL reduction after 1 year was Cox proportional model: Hazards ratio (HR) (95% Condence Interval).
Model adjustment: Age, gender, waist circumference, smoking status,
similar across the tertiles.
alcohol consumption, blood pressure, fasting glucose, HDL cholesterol, log
As shown in the age- and gender-adjusted data of triglycerides, treatment arm and log C reactive protein. WC (waist
Figure 1, those in the lowest tertile of baseline ALT had the circumference): normal WC, men 102 and women  88 cm; and
highest rates of future cardiovascular events during the 5- abnormal otherwise. No or infrequent alcohol, no or less than weekly
year follow-up period. Specically, Table 2 reports inci- consumption; and Regular Alcohol otherwise.
dence rates of 1.43, 0.98, and 0.85 per 100 person-years of
exposure for those in the lower, intermediate, and higher
tertile of baseline ALT within the normal range, respectively Table 4
Relative risk reduction of cardiovascular events by rosuvastatin as
(p <0.001). These effects persisted after adjustment for age,
compared to placebo, stratied by normal range ALT tertiles
smoking, gender, waist circumference, blood pressure,
glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, Incident Events/100 RR 95% CI p Value
alcohol use, statin treatment, and hsCRP such that each Person Years
increasing SD of ALT was associated with an 18% multi- Placebo Rosuvastatin
variate adjusted decrease in risk (95% condence interval
[CI] 0.72 to 0.93, p 0.002). The HR splines displayed in Lower Tertile 1.82 1.05 0.58 0.42 - 0.79 0.001
Figure 2 conrms the monotonic decreasing risk of vascular Intermediate Tertile 1.20 0.77 0.66 0.46 - 0.95 0.015
Higher Tertile 1.14 0.54 0.48 0.32 - 0.72 <0.001
events with increasing ALT values within the normal ALT
range. As reported in Table 1, this direction of effect was p for trend: comparison of incident cardiovascular rates among ALT
concordant with projected Reynolds but opposite to Fra- tertiles in each treatment branch.
mingham Risk Scores for this cohort. Effects were consis-
tent in all clinical strata evaluated (Table 3).
Overall in the JUPITER trial, rosuvastatin reduced the trial increasing ALT levels within the normal range are inversely
primary end point by 44% (HR 0.56; 95% CI 0.46 to 0.69; p related to the development of future cardiovascular events.
<0.001). As reported in Table 4 and Figure 3, similar effects This effect was equally observed in men and women.
were observed within each tertile of baseline ALT. However, in contrast to some previous studies limited to
When added to components of the Reynolds risk score, those with elevated ALT levels, we observed that the ef-
ALT did not signicantly change the area under the receiver cacy of statin therapy in preventing the rst major cardio-
operating characteristic curve (0.690; 95% CI 0.654 to 0.727 vascular events was similar in magnitude for those with
vs 0.700; 95% CI 0.665 to 0.734; p 0.701), had a minimal lower, intermediate, and higher levels of baseline ALT, all
impact on IDI (0.0015, 95% CI 0.0008 to 0.0026) and relative within the normal range.
IDI (11.9%, 95% CI 5.6% to 18.0%), and no signicant effect As previous work has shown increasing ALT levels in
on categorical NRI (0.014, 95% CI 0.037 to 0.063). the normal range are associated with insulin resistance,
metabolic syndrome, and NAFLD, it may seem paradoxical
that lower ALT levels predict greater cardiovascular risk.
Discussion
However, although the inverse relation between ALT levels
In this large-scale contemporary study of more than and vascular risk observed here is not widely appreciated,
17,000 initially healthy men and women, we found that our data are consistent with data from some previous
Preventive Cardiology/ALT Levels, Statins, and Vascular Events 53

Figure 3. Cardiovascular events accumulated incidence by treatment arm within each ALT tertile. (A) Lower tertile, (B) intermediate tertile, and (C) higher
tertile. Unadjusted cumulative incidence of cardiovascular events in the JUPITER trial according to treatment arm stratied by ALT tertile.
54 The American Journal of Cardiology (www.ajconline.org)

cohorts.5e7 It is uncertain which components of vascular common underlying pathophysiology. Currently, there is no
risk are responsible for this inverse relation, particularly as reliable method to evaluate hepatic mass, which limits
the effect of ALT on future vascular events remained sta- addressing this mechanism.
tistically signicant after adjustment for traditional risk An alternative explanation of our data may be that ALT
factors. Also, our study is underpowered to address indi- is associated with increased mortality due to aging-
vidual components of the primary outcome. Furthermore, as associated frailty.17Under normal circumstances, muscle
shown in our data of Table 1, the distribution of traditional makes only a small contribution of plasma ALT activity.
vascular risk factors did not directly parallel ALT levels; for However, in the setting of age-dependent reductions in
example, although those in the lowest tertile of ALT were functional liver volume, the contribution of muscle to
older and somewhat more likely to smoke, they were also plasma ALT could be proportionally increased. We note,
thinner, more likely to be women, and less likely to have however, that adjusting our data for either exercise or
metabolic syndrome. Also interesting is the nontraditional plasma creatinine kinase activities did not inuence the
lipid prole distribution across ALT tertiles; although LDL relation between ALT and cardiovascular disease risk.
cholesterol levels were similar across groups, higher apo-B A potential limitation of our data is that the JUPITER
levels were observed in those with higher ALT levels as a trial did not include diabetic patients. We also have no data
signal of insulin-resistant dislypidemia. Indeed, those in the on NAFLD, which could be a link between ALT levels and
lower ALT tertile had higher observed vascular event rates cardiovascular disease risk. Other point is potential bias
despite having fewer traditional risk factors. In this respect, from ordinary uctuations in ALT. In this regard Miyake
the risks associated with increasing ALT levels were et al21 demonstrated seasonal uctuations of ALT in
concordant with those predicted by the Reynolds risk score, outpatient setting, with 6% increment in the winter. Ac-
which takes into account systemic inammation. Although a counting for that, however, probably will not inuence the
positive family history was, if anything, more prevalent in linear association demonstrated in a signicant way. Finally,
those with higher baseline ALT levels, hsCRP levels were despite the wide number of covariates available, we cannot
higher in those with lower levels of ALT, despite being eliminate the possibility of residual confounding in these
thinner and having a reduced prevalence of metabolic syn- data.
drome. Thus, lower ALT levels may have reected an In this contemporary study of otherwise healthy men and
augmented proinammatory response, which predisposes to women, lower ALT levels within the normal range predict
increased vascular event rates.14 greater cardiovascular risk, independent of traditional car-
Although our data are concordant with 3 previous stud- diovascular risk markers. However, the measurement of
ies,5e7 they differ somewhat from 2 other studies in which ALT did not improve the ability to reclassify vascular risk
increasing ALT levels were associated with neutral15 or over and above that already achievable with traditional risk
increased cardiovascular risk.16 However, these 2 previous factors. We observed no evidence that the efcacy of statin
studies did not exclude patients with above-normal ALT therapy in terms of reducing the rst-ever vascular events
levels in their sample selection. Moreover, closer examina- was modied by underlying ALT levels.
tion of these 2 studies demonstrates, if anything, an inverse
relation of ALT levels in the normal range while the pos-
itive nding is driven largely by those participants with the Acknowledgment: The authors are grateful for the
ALT levels well above normal. outstanding support from Lemann Foundation, a nonprot
Our ndings are limited to nondiabetic patients who organization, and for the commitment and support of Latha
qualied for the JUPITER trial. However, Schooling et al.6 Padmanabhan, MS through the process of this project.
has reported a similar association between lower ALT levels
and greater risk of ischemic heart disease deaths not related
to diabetes but an opposite association in diabetes related Disclosures
events. Our population comprised subjects aged >50 years
with hsCRP >2 mg/l at entry. In this regard, Kunutsor et al.7 Dr. Ridker received an investigator-initiated grant from
addressed the effect modication of age and hsCRP on the AstraZeneca to conduct the JUPITER trial. Dr. Cohen has
association of ALT with cardiovascular risk. In that study, received consulting fees from Aegerion, Dignity Sciences,
ALT was inversely associated with cardiovascular risk in Genzyme, Intercept, Merck, Cymabay, and Novartis and has
subjects aged >50 years and with elevated hsCRP but not additionally received honoraria from Merck. Dr. Harada
among younger patients with lower hsCRP. receives scholarship from Leman Foundation, a nonprot
Plasma ALT levels are measurements of enzyme released organization. Lynda Rose, Dr. Paynter, and Nancy Cook
from the cytosol of hepatocytes and generally reect rates of have nothing to disclose.
cellular injury and turnover within the liver. Normal ALT
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