B.C.

ELECTION 2017
 EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM PST, MAY 8, 2017
PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Methodology
Mainstreet surveyed a stratied random sample of
1,650 British Columbians from May 5-6, 2017
through Chimera IVR. Respondents were screened
to conrm voting eligibility. Landline and Cell lines
were included. Responses were weighed using
demographic information to targets based on the
2011 Census.
The margin of error for survey results is 2.41
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For Greater
Vancouver specic results, the margin of error is
3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For
Vancouver Island specic results, the margin of
error is 4.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
For Rest of BC results, the margin of error is 4.64
percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Riding Surveys were conducted seperately.
430 voters were surveyed in Saanich North & the
Islands. The margin of error is 4.69 percentage
points, 19 times out of 20.
425 voters were surveyed in Fraser-Nicola. The
margin of error is 4.72 percentage points, 19
times out of 20.
460 voters were surveyed in Delta North. The
margin of error is 4.53 percentage points, 19
times out of 20.
411 were surveyed in Surrey-Fleetwood. The margin
of error is 4.8 percentage points, 19 times out of
20.
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
majority government in the 2015 federal election.
Contact Information
In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Montreal: David Valentin, Executive Vice
President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
 Its Deja Vu All Over Again
Quito Maggi, President
When this election began a few short weeks ago,
Christy Clark found herself in a familiar position,
she was once again the underdog to the renewed
NDP under leader John Horgan. Like in 2013, her
BC Liberal led government had suered from a
prolonged series of scandals, cash for access
was perhaps the best known across Canada but
other local issues like Yoga-gate and issues with
both Education and Healthcare, the top two
responsibilities of any Provincial government.
Housing aordability had become a big problem
across greater Vancouver and continues to be a
great concern. Environmental protection became a
growing concern with the federal approval of the
Kinder Morgan pipeline, and opponents vowed to
ght the Provincial and Federal governments on
this issue. Among her most vocal opponents on
Kinder Morgan was Vancouver Mayor, Gregor
Robertson.
The campaign itself was bitter and nasty at times,
including the #IAmLinda twitter campaign that
dogged the BC Liberal leader for days on the
campaign trail. With two weeks to election day, the
NDP had opened up a nearly 10 point lead and the
Green Party was stealing just as many votes from
BC Liberals as they were from the NDP. It seemed
like a very dierent election than the last time
around.
Andrew Weaver and the Green party have been an
x factor in this election and are headed for a
historic result on May 9th that should not be
overlooked. They will not form government, they
will not be the ocial opposition, its quite likely
that their goal of reaching ocial party status may
also fall just short, but that is not clear. They will
register the highest percentage of the popular
vote ever recorded for a Green Party in any
Canadian jurisdiction. They will likely have the
highest seat count of any Green Party in any
Canadian jurisdiction. That result on Tuesday
should shake up BC politics for the next few years,
and should be an encouraging sign for Elizabeth
May and the federal Green Party who have failed
to make gains despite repeated eorts.
John Horgan and the NDP have run a decent
campaign, they have not made some of the same
mistakes that his predecessor Adrian Dix made in
2013. Not making big mistakes however, is not the
yardstick by which campaigns looking to uproot
incumbent governments are measured. Horgans
debate performances were received largely
positively, but his favourability with voters, and his
inability to shake his angry reputation, will
ultimately serve to keep him in the Opposition
Leader chair.
Ultimately, this election will be largely like 2013,
another BC Liberal majority government. Our
research across North America and other
jurisdictions is consistent on a single principle, the
economic climate dictates the mood of the
electorate. Although aordable housing has been
a growing concern, jobs and the economy have
been the top issue identied by numerous polls
and pollsters. While house prices have soared in
greater Vancouver, causing concerns, many more
have benetted from the increases. Despite the yet
unfullled promise of a massive LNG market, the
BC economy has done well while maintaining
balanced budgets unlike most other Canadian
Provinces.
Which brings me back to the title, Dj vu all over
again, a famous quote from Yogi Berra. Christy
Clark and the BC Liberals will emerge again on
top, solidifying Christy Clarks title as the
comeback kid and sending the NDP back to the
drawing board.
We conducted polls in 4 ridings that we believe
are bellwethers; Surrey-Fleetwood, Delta-North,
Saanich North & The Islands and Fraser-Nicola.
This points to signicant candidate and incumbent
strength that will make the dierence in close
races. The province-wide numbers plus the 4
ridings where we have BC Liberals leading puts
the BC Liberals at the 44 seats needed for a
majority, and using those riding results as an
indicator for other close ridings, points to the
possibility of signicantly more.
BC LIBERALS SET FOR MAJORITY, AGAIN

May 8, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the BC Liberals set to return to the
legislature in major numbers. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage
points, 19 times out of 20.

Its 2013 all over again said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. Our nal poll nds the NDP
and Liberals in a dead heat - but despite the statistical tie in support, were expecting a Liberal majority
government on Tuesday night. For the NDP to win they would need to be leading by substantially more
given the ineciency of their vote, with a statistical dead heat, we expect Liberal incumbents will be able
to pull themselves over the nish line.

Its important to remember that these numbers do not exist in stasis - with the poll having nished on
Saturday, and the voters moving towards the Liberals in the closing day, its likely the Liberals could pick up
another point or two in support.

While the Greens are set for their best night ever, it will be a tough slog to ocial party status. Our riding
poll of Saanich North & the Islands indicates that Adam Olsen may be able to pull o a victory - where other
pick-ups may come from is tough to say. Perhaps Cowichan Valley where Green Leader Andrew Weaver
visited over the weekend. Despite the Greens being in line for their best ever result, their support strength
is weak and they are at the mercy of the rst past the post system which does not reward support a mile
wide and an inch deep.

It looks as though the NDP are facing a disappointing nish and will need to reassess what to do in the
future. Its important to remember though that Christy Clark is a talented campaigner, her team, for the
most part, ran an ecient, targeted and eective campaign. She is the Comeback Kid, all over again,
nished Maggi.
-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca
Decided & Leaning Voters
Our Prediction: Liberal Majority
Time is almost out, and with the electorate
trending towards the BC Liberals in the closing
days of the campaign, it looks like we will have the
same result as 2013: A Liberal Majority
Government.
The Liberals have made up major ground in
Greater Vancouver, bringing the race to a
statistical dead heat. In Vancouver Island they are
running second now, though the NDP hold a
healthy 15% lead. As our Saanich North & the
Island riding poll shows however, when Green
candidates punch above their weight they create
volatile three-way races.
In the Rest of B.C. the Liberals are leading easily,
the NDP should be nervous about holding onto
seats there that the Liberals have targeted
(Skeena comes to mind).
Due to riding dynamics, incumbents, the trendlines
and the numbers itself, its hard to game out how
the Liberals dont win government Tuesday night.
Seeing all the numbers in front of us, were asking:
what seats will the Liberals lose? The answer is not
immediately clear.
To be sure, good luck, high turnout and eective
campaigning could make up the gap. It only takes
3-5 votes per poll sometimes to make a dierence
in a riding.
But, the NDP would need to be very lucky, very
talented, and would need selective high turnout to
win - or even to hold the Liberals to a minority.
For the Greens the campaign must be bittersweet:
likely an historic result if they are able to hold onto
their voters for another 24 hours, and probably an
historic night even if they arent.
They face the very real possibility of picking up
only another seat or two despite currently polling
at 20%.
For the NDP, its time to hope for upsets and to
rally around imperiled incumbents.
If it is another Liberal majority - what then?
The Federal NDP are looking for a new leader - so
too are the NDP in Manitoba and Saskatchewan -
will there be another race?
Among All Voters
LIBERAL NDP GREEN

STRONG SUPPORTERS

82% 74% 53%

(+4) (-9) (-6)

MIGHT CHANGE/NOT SURE

18% 26% 47%

 SECOND CHOICES (NOT STRONG ONLY)

LIBERAL NDP GREEN

21% 17% 20%

(-3) (-7) (-1)

32% 48% 58%

(+8) (-3) (-9)

47% 35% 22%

(-5) (+10) (+10)
 RIDING SPOTLIGHT

Saanich North & The Islands

Fraser- Nicola
RIDING SPOTLIGHT

Delta North

Surrey-Fleetwood
 PROVINCIAL D&L: STRONG VOTERS ONLY

Decided & Leaning - but only for voters who say they are strong supporters and
wont change their mind.
 Who Will Win The Election?

Note that many Green Voters (37%, see next page for table) believe the Liberals
will win the election and are voting Green regardless.