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Silver sags along with inflation expectations, while gold spurred by geopolitics
Reduced risk appetite among investors benefited gold prices in April. On the heels of geopolitical uncertainty emanating from the French
presidential primary elections and North Korea, investor sentiment for gold rose to a 6 month high with prices nearing $1300/ounce (oz)
before profit taking emerged in the latter half of the month. Silver, on the other hand, fell nearly 6% despite steady investor activity in
futures and exchange traded funds (ETFs). This move was most likely in response to slowing US manufacturing data as well as recent lower
inflation expectations. This may not deter silvers prospects, however, with global growth expected to rise 3.5% in 2017 up from 3.1%
according to recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) a potential boost to silvers high industrial usage.
Indian market stabilizes with rising imports ahead of seasonal jewelry demand
With both a jewelers strike and currency demonetization stymieing spending last year, Indian jewelry demand fell by 505 metric tonnes
(24%) in 2016 according to Metals Focus. This was a large blow for the physical gold market with India accounting for nearly a third of
annual demand. Signs of stabilization and recovery have emerged recently. Indian gold imports have doubled year to date, rising to $4.1
billion in March versus $1.96 billion in December dampened by demonetization policies. These inventory builds are expected to be met with
high seasonal gold demand driven by the Akshaya Tritiya festival and wedding season sales this April.
1
For month ending April 30th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Gold: +1.5% (April), +1.5% (QTD), +10.1% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Gold price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Gold Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
Gold rose 1.5% in April ending at $1268.3/ounce (oz). In our $1,400 $120,000
2017 base case outlook, gold may rise to $1300/oz in the first $1,350
$100,000
Jun-16
Dec-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
May-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Jul-16
Aug-16
In a bearish scenario, the Fed may move more aggressively,
seeing the USD appreciate and bursting the bond market bubble
and pushing gold near the $1100/oz level. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 04/30/16 to 04/30/17.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2008
2009
250,000
low commodity prices continues to roll off, while US core CPI 200,000
fell from 2.2% to 2.0%. 150,000
Rates: The US 10yr Treasury yield closed the month down at 100,000
2.28% for April while US real interest rates on a 10 year basis 50,000
USD: The dollar fell 1.3% in April and remains down 3.1% this (100,000)
year which has been a boon for gold and the broader commodity (150,000)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
complex.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/09 to 04 /30/17.
2
For month ending April 30th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Silver: -5.8% (April), -5.8% (QTD), +8.1% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Silver price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Silver Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
Silvers volatility continued through April as it fell 5.8% amid $22 $20,000
$21 $18,000
lower inflation expectations. Investor activity surged this month
Jun-16
Dec-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
May-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Jul-16
Aug-16
continues to decline, this should further weigh on silver supply.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 04/30/16 to 04/30/17.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2008
80,000
to date, remains above the long term average of 59 as silvers 60,000
discount to gold extended this month. 40,000
20,000
Industrial Cycle: US industrial activity fell in April to 54.8
-
from 57.2 last month (as measured by the manufacturing PMI
(20,000)
index), but remains at expansionary levels which is an
(40,000)
encouraging sign for silvers industrial demand.
(60,000)
Producer Prices: Input costs to US producers remained flat (80,000)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
in March with the US producer price index (PPI) unchanged at
3.7% for finished goods but rising to 2.3% from 2.2% on a final Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/09 to 04 /30/17.
demand basis in March.
3
For month ending April 30th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Platinum: -0.5% (April), -0.5% (QTD), +4.6% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Platinum price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Platinum Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
Platinum continued its downtrend this month falling 0.5% to $1,200 $2,500
Jun-16
Dec-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
May-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Jul-16
Aug-16
scenario could see platinum falling to $910/oz amid further
weakness in the South African Rand (ZAR). Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 04/30/16 to 04/30/17.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2008
2009
extension in long positions. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/07 to 04/30/17.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
may bring back support for consumer spending and
discretionary purchases such as jewelry. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/09 to 04 /30/17.
4
For month ending April 30th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Palladium: +3.5% (April), +3.5% (QTD), +21.4% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Palladium price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Palladium Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
$850 $1,400
Palladium rose for the 5th consecutive month in April by 3.5%
to $826.6/oz. Palladiums technicals remain the most $800
Jun-16
Dec-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
May-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Jul-16
Aug-16
infrastructure spending and recovery in global growth.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 04/30/16 to 04/30/17.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2008
multi-year highs. Long and short positions both fell by 1%. 2009
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/07 to 04/30/17.
20,000
sales fell to 1.42 million in April, down 4.9% year over year
15,000
and an 8.4% decrease from March.
10,000
Market Balance: Expected continued supply deficits, 5,000
growing demand, and drawdowns in above ground stocks -
have kept the market balance for palladium favorable. (5,000)
metals (0.57) is the highest among precious metals and the (15,000)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
recent rally in industrial metals, which are up 22% year over
year, has benefitted palladium demand and performance. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/09 to 04 /30/17.
5
For month ending April 30th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Important Risks
The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of
future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would
be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The ETFS Silver Trust, ETFS Gold Trust, ETFS Platinum Trust, ETFS Palladium Trust and ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust are
not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the
Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trusts are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. These
investments are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience
greater volatility. Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trusts. Shares in the Trusts are not
FDIC insured and may lose value and have no bank guarantee.
The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the precious metal held by the Trust and fluctuations in the price could materially adversely
affect investment in the Shares. Several factors may affect the price of precious metals, including:
A change in economic conditions, such as a recession, can adversely affect the price of the precious metal held by the Trust. Some metals are
used in a wide range of industrial applications, and an economic downturn could have a negative impact on its demand and, consequently,
its price and the price of the Shares;
Investors expectations with respect to the rate of inflation;
Currency exchange rates;
interest rates;
Investment and trading activities of hedge funds and commodity funds; and
Global or regional political, economic or financial events and situations. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the
precious metal held by the trust or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the
price of the Shares. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the Trusts or producing
companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the shares.
Also, should the speculative community take a negative view towards the precious metal held by the Trusts, it could cause a decline in prices,
negatively impacting the price of the shares. There is a risk that part or all of the Trusts physical precious metal could be lost, damaged or stolen.
Failure by the Custodian or Sub-Custodian to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the precious metal held by the Trusts could result in a loss to the
Trusts.
The Trusts will not insure its precious metals and shareholders cannot be assured that the custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any
insurance with respect to the precious metals held by the custodian on behalf of the Trust. Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the
Trusts precious metal that is not covered by insurance.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.
Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trust.
Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market (i.e., not directly from Trusts). Only market makers or authorized
participants may trade directly with the Trusts, typically in blocks of 50k to 100k shares.
ETFS Physical Precious Metals Basket Index reflects the daily performance of a basket with the following components and ratios: gold (0.030oz), silver
(1.100oz), platinum (0.004oz) and palladium (0.006oz). Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price index. Futures
contract = agreement traded on an organized exchange to buy or sell assets at a fixed price but to be delivered and paid for later. Long position = buying of an
asset with the expectation the asset will rise in value. Short position = sale of a borrowed asset with the expectation that the asset will fall in value. Spot price =
current market price at which an asset is bought or sold for immediate payment and delivery. S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks
selected by the Standard & Poors Index Committee designed to represent the performance of the leading industries in the U.S. economy. MSCI Emerging
Markets (EM) Index is an equity index that captures large and midcap representation across Emerging Markets countries. Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index
is a broad-based flagship benchmark measuring investment grade, US dollar, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The US Dollar (USD) Index is an index (or
measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of US trade partners' currencies. The
Euro/US Dollar exchange rate is the relative pricing of the euro (the official currency of the European Union) and the US dollar. The US Dollar/Japanese Yen
exchange rate is the relative pricing of the yen (the official currency of Japan) and the US dollar. The HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index is designed to be
representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. Year over year = the percent change over a full calendar year. The Consumer Price Index
(CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services; headline includes all categories while core
excludes food and energy. South African Rand (ZAR) = official currency of South Africa. The Purchasing Manufacturing PMI Index (PMI) is an indicator of the
economic health of the manufacturing sector. Producer Price index (PPI) measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of
goods and services. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central banking system of the United States of America. COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary
market for trading metals such as gold, silver, copper and aluminium. NYMEX = New York Mercantile Exchange. IMF = The International Monetary Fund
(IMF) is an international organization created for the purpose of standardizing global financial relations and exchange rates. Akshaya is a holy day for Hindus
and Jains and an auspicious day often associated with increased gold purchases in India. Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index (XAU) is a
capitalization-weighted index composed of companies involved in the gold or silver mining industry.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. This material must be accompanied or preceded by the
prospectus. Carefully consider each Trusts investment objectives, risk factors, and fees and expenses before investing. Please
click here to view the prospectus.
ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the marketing agent for ETFS Silver Trust, ETFS Gold Trust, ETFS Platinum Trust, ETFS Palladium
Trust and ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust.
Maxwell Gold is a registered representative of ALPS Distributors, Inc.
ETF001154 04/30/18