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Highlights Index
2 Forecasts
The Week — A happy, though subdued global anniversary.
3 The Week
Canada — Retail sales take a dip to start the summer,
however growth is expected to continue through the year. 4 Canada
New Releases
Scotiabank Commodity Price Index (07/21)
Scotia Economics
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clients of Scotiabank and Scotia Capital. While the information is from
Toronto, Ontario Canada M5H 1H1
sources believed reliable, neither the information nor the forecast shall
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Global Economic Research July 23, 2010
Forecasts
Economic Performance (annual % change unless otherwise indicated)
2000-08 2009 2010f 2011f 2000-08 2009 2010f 2011f
Canada United States
Real GDP 2.6 -2.5 3.4 2.6 2.4 -2.4 3.2 2.6
Consumer Prices 2.3 0.3 1.9 2.3 2.9 -0.3 1.8 1.7
Pre-tax Profits 7.8 -32.3 26.0 12.5 5.3 -3.8 25.0 11.0
Federal Budget Balance ($bn) 8.4 -48.0 -43.0 -28.0 -197 -1413 -1380 -1220
Current Account Balance ($bn) 20.5 -43.5 -31.3 -29.2 -596 -378 -434 -477
Merchandise Trade Balance ($bn) 58.1 -4.6 6.5 7.5 -648 -507 -617 -685
Motor Vehicle Sales (000s)* 1,605 1,461 1,525 1,570 16.4 10.4 11.5 12.2
Motor Vehicle Production (000s)* 2,590 1,425 2,200 2,300 11.5 5.6 7.8 8.1
Housing Starts (000s)* 207 149 190 175 1.65 0.55 0.65 0.95
Employment 1.9 -1.6 1.4 1.5 0.7 -4.3 -0.2 2.2
Jobs Created (000s)* 301 -272 237 251 0.86 -5.87 -0.23 2.84
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.9 8.3 8.1 7.9 5.1 9.3 9.6 9.1
2
Global Economic Research July 23, 2010
A year ago, global stock markets were already climbing sharply A year ago, confidence was low and slow to turn to
higher from their recession depths, on their way to recording the upside. A year later, confidence is higher, but
impressive rebounds in anticipation of improving corporate revenues. has been relatively fast to turn to the downside. In
Investors increasingly became less risk averse, recycling their savings this ‘unusually uncertain’ environment, expect
out of the perceived safety of U.S.-dollar Treasury assets. A year later, policymakers to ‘gradually’ normalize their policy
many companies around the world are reporting solid results, though settings, businesses to pursue moderate expansion
equities are giving back some of their gains, likely in anticipation of plans and fortify their revenue streams, and
more challenging times ahead. Investors have once again become households to remain cautious shoppers and bigger
more defensive and risk averse. savers. ■
3
Global Economic Research July 23, 2010
Canada
Alex Koustas
Neil Tisdall (416) 866-6252
(416) 866-4212
neil_tisdall@scotiacapital.com
alex_koustas@scotiacapital.com
Review
BoC Policy Announcement — The Bank of Canada
Retail Sales Take A Dip To Start The Summer
(BoC) increased its overnight rate 25 basis points this
Strong employment gains and a booming housing market led to a week to 0.75%, following a June 1st hike of the same
vigorous rebound in retail sales earlier in the year, as consumer amount. Canada is the first G7 nation to embark on a
policy tightening cycle, reflecting the relatively stronger
confidence improved dramatically. However, after a period of
pace of domestic demand. Nonetheless, the BoC
significant consumer credit expansion amid stimulative monetary revised lower its forecast for Canadian GDP growth for
conditions, Canadians have started to ebb their expenditures this year and next, to 3.5% and 2.9% respectively,
somewhat. The Bank of Canada’s gradual withdrawal of given a weaker profile for global growth and more
accommodative policy measures, coupled with increased volatility in modest consumer spending here at home.
Notwithstanding price distortions caused by recent or
financial markets, and cooling housing markets, have served to take upcoming changes in provincial indirect taxes, the BoC
some of the steam out of consumer expenditure growth. expects total and core inflation to remain near its 2.0%
inflation target through the forecast period, consistent
SALES & CONFIDENCE Retail sales slipped for a second straight with ‘gradual’ rate hikes. However, given a high degree
REMAIN STRONG month in May — down 0.2% m/m — of uncertainty with respect to the outlook for inflation
index:
10 y/y % change 2002=100 100 marking the first consecutive sales decline and growth, BoC Governor Mark Carney said in a press
8 since 2008. Nonetheless, sales on a year- conference following the rate hike that there ‘is no
CONSUMER preordained path for interest rates in this country’. We
6 CONFIDENCE
90 to-date basis still remain quite strong, up
continue to forecast a further 25 basis point hike in
4 (RHS) 6.7% over the same five-month period as September.
80
2 last year.
0 CPI — Consumer inflation pressures eased in June,
70
-2 RETAIL A decline in gasoline and auto sales once with the headline index up 1.0% y/y (from 1.4% in
May), and the BoC’s core measure of CPI slowing to
-4 SALES again weighed on overall purchases. Lower
60
(LHS) 1.7% y/y (from 1.8%). On a monthly (seasonally-
-6 prices at the pump depressed receipts for adjusted) basis, total CPI fell 0.2% m/m, primarily due
-8 50
gasoline, down 2.4%, while a 0.5% to a sharp drop in energy prices, though core prices
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10
pullback in auto sales was mainly edged up only by a modest 0.1% m/m.
attributable to lower volumes. The Preview
expiration of the home renovation tax credit has been particularly
IPPI & RMPI (07/29)
difficult for building material & garden centres, with a 4.3% m/m
decline marking yet another disappointing month for the segment. Real GDP (07/30)
Overall, six of the eleven retail segments experienced declines, with core
sales (ex-autos) dropping 0.1%.
However, sales did increase 0.4% in volume terms, as lower gasoline
prices and discounts at clothing and footwear retailers likely generated Overall, the upward trend in retail sales growth is
increased consumer activity. Retailers continue to be proactive in their expected to continue, though at a more modest pace,
efforts to lure cautious shoppers, all while keeping a close eye on alongside healthy gains in employment and the slow
inventories. Employee pricing initiatives by a number of auto recovery of the U.S. economy. Strength in
manufacturers are likely to lead to increased sales postings over the consumer confidence numbers — up roughly 15%
summer months. y/y — suggests a healthy outlook for retailers. ■
4
Global Economic Research July 23, 2010
5
Global Economic Research July 23, 2010
Oscar Sánchez
Puerto Rico’s Dramatic Economic Turn
(416) 862-3174
The Puerto Rican economy has experienced a
oscar_sanchez@scotiacapital.com
dramatic turnaround after three years of uninterrupted
economic decline. Consumer spending and
manufacturing activity are leading the way,
Several Indicators Point To Domestic Demand Gains underpinned by improving labour market conditions
and an uptick in international trade.
Slowly but surely Mexico’s local demand is starting to climb out of
the slump that resulted from last year’s recession. Notwithstanding the The nascent recovery is being supported by an
ambitious and aggressive fiscal plan implemented by
stellar recovery in foreign demand observed since the second half of
the government of the Commonwealth backed by the
2009 — which has led to a rebound in manufacturing sector activity fiscal stabilization package instituted last year in the
back to pre-crisis levels — activity in domestically oriented sectors United States. Although the near-term outlook for
has been lagging the country’s economic comeback. Puerto Rico will still be shaped by sizeable
disbursements from the government’s fiscal
In fact, while latest industrial output figures (seasonally adjusted) stabilization plan that are programmed to amount to
already show the manufacturing sector having returned within a US$1.5 billion in the next six months, recent evidence
whisker of the level observed at the top of the previous cycle in mid- already supports a successful implementation of the
fiscal impulse.
2008, the domestically oriented construction sector still lies close to
10% below that peak. Having bottomed back in February, value added within
the island, as approximated by the economic activity
This picture, however, has been changing painstakingly with output in index, increased by 0.8% q/q (not annualized and
construction slowly creeping up by 2% so far in 2010. The incipient seasonally adjusted) so far in the second quarter with
data up to May. Although seasonally adjusted figures
recovery in the building sector has manifested in investment figures as
are not readily available, an advance in retail sales of
well, with edification expanding by over 2% so far this year, as the over 13% on a yearly basis during the first quarter was
recovery in the seasonally adjusted index has already retraced more significant. The improvement in spending indicators
than half the loss that resulted from the collapse in capital formation has come on the back of persistent employment gains,
during 2009. Yearly comparisons of construction sector performance as over 18,000 jobs have been created since January.
can only track these developments with a lag as the change in the Notwithstanding the surprising economic comeback,
trend is only captured until the second quarter. the most impressive performance has come out of the
public sector balance, as government revenues for
Retail sales indicators published earlier in the week follow a similar FY2010 were over 2% larger than the previous year,
having surpassed budgeted estimates for the second
script as the higher frequency data, as seasonally adjusted sales
fiscal year in a row, after at least four years of
figures registered a 0.7% pickup during May, having expanded in four overestimations (fiscal years run July/June).
out of the five months reported so far this year. This is in a way
The recent developments continue to support our
noteworthy as consumer confidence gauges have lagged the recovery February 2010 estimation of a 2.5% economic
with perceived future employment and income prospects improving expansion during FY2011, which would represent the
slowly. This coincides with recently noted monthly increases in bank first yearly expansion in five years.
credit flows to consumers which had been contracting for over a year.
Inflation indicators for June are also indicative of improving domestic This in our view points as well to domestic demand
demand. Within a context of subdued overall price pressures, an pressures starting to come into play. In summary,
upward trend in core-services inflation can be detected starting in May the Mexican economy is gearing back towards a
and continuing through the June figures (this trend was further sustainable recovery path with spare capacity still
supported in this week’s CPI report for the first two weeks of July). conditioning the inflationary outlook. ■
6
Global Economic Research July 23, 2010
Europe
for those bonds that banks trade, rather than those
Tuuli McCully Sarah Howcroft that are held to maturity.
(416) 863-2859 (416) 607-0058
The impact of the sovereign debt shock varied by
tuuli_mccully@scotiacapital.com sarah_howcroft@scotiacapital.com
country, reflecting their respective international
public sector exposure. With the addition of the
sovereign shock, seven European banks saw their
Markets Require Time To Digest EU Bank Stress Test
Tier 1 capital ratios fall below 6% in 2011, up from
Results five in the case with the global demand shock only.
The process of financial stabilization in Europe is gathering speed Furthermore, there were 10 institutions with capital
following today’s release of the European bank stress test results by ratios that fell in the 6.0-6.9% range under the initial
the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). While the adverse scenario, increasing to 17 with the inclusion
results imply that the banking sector in the European Union (EU) is of the sovereign debt shock. One of the failed
fairly resilient, they revealed some weaknesses as well. The CEBS institutions is German, and is already owned by the
together with the European Central Bank and national supervisory government, while one is a Greek bank, and the
authorities conducted stress tests on 91 European financial institutions remaining five are Spanish (one bank and four
that together represent 65% of the EU’s banking sector. In addition to cajas). To date, the Spanish government has already
testing major cross-border banking groups, the coverage also included promised sizable funds for recapitalization purposes.
many domestic credit institutions, such as the Spanish cajas. The Transparency of the testing mechanism is a key
objective of the exercise was to assess the banking sector’s resilience element in building credibility and investor
in 2010 and 2011, and specifically its capacity to weather possible confidence; with plenty of details published
credit shocks, such as those stemming from sovereign risks related to regarding testing procedures, investors will be able
highly-indebted euro zone countries, and to assess the banks’ to scrutinize the credibility of the tests easily.
dependence on public support measures. If a bank’s financial strength Nevertheless, investor concerns regarding the
— i.e. its ability to sustain future losses — is not adequate, as stringency of the tests will likely remain in place;
measured by a Tier 1 capital ratio (core equity capital / total assets) of macro-economic assumptions fall short of the
at least 6% (the current regulatory minimum is 4%), it will need to economic contraction of more than 4% in 2009,
raise more capital. though two consecutive years of economic decline
can be considered a fairly pessimistic assumption.
The tests included two macro-economic scenarios: the benchmark
scenario assumed a modest economic recovery in the euro zone (GDP Following a relatively neutral initial market reaction
growth at 0.7% in 2010 and 1.5% in 2011) while an adverse scenario to the stress test results, we expect that the European
was based on a double-dip recession (with real GDP growth of -0.2% sovereign debt crisis has now passed one of the key
in 2010 and -0.6% in 2011). The adverse scenario had two hurdles and signs of stabilization will start to
components: the first included a global confidence shock affecting emerge. Nevertheless, with the turmoil mainly
demand worldwide, and the second added an EU-specific shock driven by rapidly changing investor confidence,
stemming from a worsening of the sovereign debt crisis. An upward uncertainty remains high at least in the near term.
shift was implemented for the yield curve at both the short-end — to While financing conditions for many of the
capture interbank liquidity problems — and the long end of the curve countries in the euro zone periphery remain tough
— to depict deteriorated perceptions regarding the countries’ and achieving fiscal sustainability is vital in order to
sovereign creditworthiness. The tests also included valuation haircuts maintain investor confidence, the stress test results
to sovereign bond holdings for each country, ranging between 4.2% support our view that sovereign debt issues will not
(Slovenia) and 23.1% (Greece), however an outright sovereign default cause any unprecedented difficulties for the
was not considered. In addition, sovereign-debt losses were mapped European banking sector. ■
7
Global Economic Research July 23, 2010
8
Global Economic Research July 23, 2010
9
Global Economic Research July 23, 2010
CANADIAN INTEREST U.S. INTEREST RATES Note: Latest observation taken at time of writing.
6.0 6.0
RATES (%)
(%)
5.0 5.0
10-YEAR
10-YEAR Fiscal Policy — New Brunswick, after the sale of
4.0 4.0 T-BOND
GOC power generation assets from NB Power to Hydro-
Québec did not proceed last spring, plans to re-integrate
3.0 3.0
NB Power’s generation, nuclear, transmission and
distribution subsidiaries, after dividing the utility in 2004.
2.0 2.0
The re-integrated utility is expected to provide potential
1.0 3-MONTH 3-MONTH annual savings of $8 million plus greater transparency
1.0
BA LIBOR and accountability on issues such as rates regulation.
0.0 0.0 NB Power’s new mandate includes developing, with a
7/25/08 7/24/09 7/23/10 7/25/08 7/24/09 7/23/10 sustainable rate structure, a long-term electricity supply
plan and a debt management strategy, alongside annual
investments in electricity efficiency.
S&P/TSX HYDRO ELECTRIC POWER
15000 (INDEX) GENERATION N.B. and Nova Scotia are two of several provinces
(2009, % SHARE OF TOTAL challenged to competitively service new power demand
14000
GENERATION) without extensive hydro-electricity capacity. Following the
13000
NL Atlantic Premiers’ recent commitment to greater energy
12000 NS co-operation, NB Power and Nova Scotia Power Inc. are
NB exploring a second transmission connection of up to 500
11000
QC MW, adding to the existing 300 MW connection, to raise
10000 ON system reliability and support renewable energy. N.S. is
MB targeting 25% renewable energy generation by 2015 and
9000
SK 40% by 2020, co-operating on one option, tidal power,
8000 AB
with N.B. and Maine.
BC
7000
7/25/08 7/24/09 7/23/10 0 20 40 60 80 100
Source: Statistics Canada
10
Global Economic Research July 23, 2010
Economic Tables
Canada 2009 09Q4 10Q1 Latest United States 2009 09Q4 10Q1 Latest
Real GDP (annual rates) -2.5 4.9 6.1 Real GDP (annual rates) -2.4 5.6 2.7
Current Acc. Bal. (C$B, ar) -43.5 -40.8 -31.3 Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -378 -404 -436
Merch. Trade Bal. (C$B, ar) -4.6 1.7 4.8 -6.0 (May) Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) -507 -560 -605 -653 (May)
Industrial Production -10.0 -7.7 -0.4 3.6 (Apr) Industrial Production -9.3 -3.7 2.7 8.4 (Jun)
Housing Starts (000s) 149 180 198 193 (Jun) Housing Starts (millions) 0.55 0.56 0.62 0.55 (Jun)
Employment -1.6 -1.4 0.5 2.2 (Jun) Employment -4.3 -4.0 -2.4 -0.1 (Jun)
Unemployment Rate (%) 8.3 8.4 8.2 7.9 (Jun) Unemployment Rate (%) 9.3 10.0 9.7 9.5 (Jun)
Retail Sales -2.9 2.3 7.3 -0.6 (May) Retail Sales -7.1 2.1 6.3 5.0 (Jun)
Auto Sales (000s) 1459 1509 1557 1468 (May) Auto Sales (millions) 10.3 10.8 11.0 11.1 (Jun)
CPI 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.0 (Jun) CPI -0.4 1.4 2.4 1.1 (Jun)
IPPI -3.4 -3.4 -0.6 -4.8 (May) PPI -2.6 1.4 4.9 2.8 (Jun)
Pre-tax Corp. Profits -32.3 -12.1 16.8 Pre-tax Corp. Profits -2.4 53.9 48.2
Mexico Brazil
Real GDP -6.5 -2.3 4.3 Real GDP -0.1 3.9 8.0
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -5.5 -1.1 -2.2 Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -24.3 -49.0 -48.6
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) -4.6 0.1 1.5 -4.1 (Jun) Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) 25.4 16.5 3.5 27.3 (Jun)
Industrial Production -7.3 -1.9 5.5 -2.8 (May) Industrial Production -7.3 6.2 17.3 -0.3 (May)
CPI 5.3 4.0 4.8 3.7 (Jun) CPI 5.2 3.9 3.9 5.2 (Jun)
Argentina Italy
Real GDP 0.9 2.6 6.8 Real GDP -5.1 -2.8 0.5
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) 11.5 6.0 -1.5 Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -0.07 -0.07 -0.10 -0.07 (May)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) 16.9 14.3 8.5 22.9 (May) Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) -6.9 -8.1 -46.9 -29.5 (May)
Industrial Production 0.1 5.4 9.0 9.8 (Jun) Industrial Production -18.3 -9.3 3.1 -17.1 (May)
CPI -26.9 -9.4 35.7 11.0 (Jun) CPI 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.3 (Jun)
Germany France
Real GDP -4.9 -2.2 1.5 Real GDP -2.8 -0.5 1.4
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) 168.1 279.5 173.9 33.8 (May) Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -52.2 -86.6 -22.2 -126.4 (May)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) 190.3 273.5 187.1 159.1 (May) Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) -31.0 -35.3 -33.2 -52.5 (May)
Industrial Production -15.5 -8.0 6.0 -7.7 (May) Industrial Production -13.1 -4.3 5.5 -9.0 (May)
Unemployment Rate (%) 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.7 (Jun) Unemployment Rate (%) 9.4 9.8 9.9 9.9 (May)
CPI 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 (Jun) CPI 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.5 (Jun)
Japan Australia
Real GDP -5.3 -1.4 4.2 Real GDP 1.3 2.8 2.7
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) 141.7 151.8 222.1 157.3 (May) Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -40.3 -71.4 -56.5
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) 28.3 77.1 83.7 54.3 (May) Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) -3.2 -22.6 -10.1 27.5 (May)
Industrial Production -21.8 -5.1 27.1 -10.3 (May) Industrial Production -2.8 0.6 3.4
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.2 (May) Unemployment Rate (%) 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.1 (Jun)
CPI -1.4 -2.0 -1.2 -2.4 (May) CPI 1.8 2.1 2.9
11
Global Economic Research July 23, 2010
Financial Tables
Interest Rates (%, end of period)
Canada 10Q1 10Q2 Jul/16 Jul/23* United States 10Q1 10Q2 Jul/16 Jul/23*
BoC Overnight Rate 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.75 Fed Funds Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
3-mo. T-bill 0.30 0.61 0.69 0.63 3-mo. T-bill 0.15 0.17 0.15 0.14
10-yr Gov’t Bond 3.57 3.08 3.16 3.22 10-yr Gov’t Bond 3.83 2.93 2.92 2.94
30-yr Gov’t Bond 4.07 3.65 3.73 3.78 30-yr Gov’t Bond 4.71 3.89 3.94 3.97
Prime 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.75 Prime 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
FX Reserves (US$B) 54.2 56.5 55.9 (May) FX Reserves (US$B) 119.7 116.5 113.1 (May)
Germany France
3-mo. Interbank 0.49 0.67 0.78 0.82 3-mo. T-bill 0.31 0.30 0.39 0.41
10-yr Gov’t Bond 3.09 2.58 2.61 2.70 10-yr Gov’t Bond 3.42 3.05 2.95 2.99
FX Reserves (US$B) 59.9 60.2 60.9 (May) FX Reserves (US$B) 46.6 48.1 46.1 (May)
USDCAD 1.02 1.06 1.06 1.04 ¥/US$ 93.47 88.43 86.57 87.34
CADUSD 0.98 0.94 0.95 0.96 US¢/Australian$ 91.72 84.08 86.89 89.33
GBPUSD 1.518 1.495 1.530 1.542 Chinese Yuan/US$ 6.83 6.78 6.77 6.78
EURUSD 1.351 1.224 1.293 1.286 South Korean Won/US$ 1131 1222 1203 1199
JPYEUR 0.79 0.92 0.89 0.89 Mexican Peso/US$ 12.365 12.941 12.935 12.773
USDCHF 1.05 1.08 1.05 1.05 Brazilian Real/US$ 1.781 1.805 1.782 1.762
United States (DJIA) 10857 9774 10098 10344 U.K. (FT100) 5680 4917 5159 5313
United States (S&P500) 1169 1031 1065 1094 Germany (Dax) 6154 5966 6040 6167
Canada (S&P/TSX) 12038 11294 11570 11660 France (CAC40) 3974 3443 3500 3610
Mexico (Bolsa) 33266 31157 31783 32674 Japan (Nikkei) 11090 9383 9686 9431
Brazil (Bovespa) 70372 60936 62339 65669 Hong Kong (Hang Seng) 21239 20129 20250 20815
Italy (BCI) 1138 972 1028 1021 South Korea (Composite) 1693 1698 1738 1758
Pulp (US$/tonne) 910 1020 1020 1020 Copper (US$/lb) 3.55 2.96 3.04 3.17
Newsprint (US$/tonne) 565 618 618 618 Zinc (US$/lb) 1.07 0.78 0.83 0.86
Lumber (US$/mfbm) 280 188 217 218 Gold (US$/oz) 1115.50 1244.00 1189.25 1190.50
WTI Oil (US$/bbl) 83.76 75.63 76.01 78.54 Silver (US$/oz) 17.50 18.74 18.42 18.17
Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) 3.87 4.62 4.52 4.62 CRB (index) 273.34 258.52 264.21 266.60
* Note: Latest observation taken at time of writing.
12