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# Mutually exclusive events cannot happen at the same time.

## Two events are mutually

exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time. An example is tossing a coin once, which can
result in either heads or tails, but not both
Examples:
Turning left and turning right are Mutually Exclusive (you can't do both at the same
time)
Tossing a coin: Heads and Tails are Mutually Exclusive
Cards: Kings and Aces are Mutually Exclusive
What is not Mutually Exclusive:
Turning left and scratching your head can happen at the same time
Kings and Hearts, because we can have a King of Hearts!

## Independence of events : In probability theory, two events are independent, statistically

independent, or stochastically independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the
probability of the other. Similarly, two random variables are independent if the realization of
one does not affect the probability distribution of the other.
Definition: Two events, A and B, are independent if the fact that A occurs does not affect
the probability of B occurring.
Some other examples of independent events are:
Landing on heads after tossing a coin AND rolling a 5 on a single 6-sided die.
Choosing a marble from a jar AND landing on heads after tossing a coin.
Choosing a 3 from a deck of cards, replacing it, AND then choosing an ace as the
second card.
Rolling a 4 on a single 6-sided die, AND then rolling a 1 on a second roll of the die.

Mutually exclusive events cannot happen at the same time. For example: when tossing a
coin, the result can either be heads or tails but cannot be both. Events are independent if the
occurrence of one event does not influence (and is not influenced by) the occurrence of the
other(s).

A joint probability is a statistical measure where the likelihood of two events occurring
together and at the same point in time are calculated. Joint probability is the probability of
event Y occurring at the same time event X occurs.
Joint probability is defined as the probability of both A and B taking place, and is denoted by
P(AB).

Joint probability is not the same as conditional probability, though the two concepts are often
confused. Conditional probability assumes that one event has taken place or will take place,
and then asks for the probability of the other (A, given B). Joint probability does not have
such conditions; it simply asks for the chances of both happening (A and B). In a problem, to
help distinguish between the two, look for qualifiers that one event is conditional on the other
(conditional) or whether they will happen concurrently (joint).
DEFINITION of 'Conditional Probability'
Probability of an event or outcome based on the occurrence of a previous event or outcome.
Conditional probability is calculated by multiplying the probability of the preceding event by
the updated probability of the succeeding event.
The conditional probability of an event B is the probability that the event will occur given the
knowledge that an event A has already occurred. This probability is written P(B|A), notation
for the probability of B given A. In the case where events A and B are independent (where
event A has no effect on the probability of event B), the conditional probability of event B
given event A is simply the probability of event B, that is P(B).
If events A and B are not independent, then the probability of the intersection of A and B
(the probability that both events occur) is defined by
P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A).
From this definition, the conditional probability P(B|A) is easily obtained by dividing by
P(A):

In a card game, suppose a player needs to draw two cards of the same suit in order to win. Of
the 52 cards, there are 13 cards in each suit. Suppose first the player draws a heart. Now the
player wishes to draw a second heart. Since one heart has already been chosen, there are
now 12 hearts remaining in a deck of 51 cards. So the conditional probability P(Draw second
heart|First card a heart) = 12/51.

Suppose an individual applying to a college determines that he has an 80% chance of being
accepted, and he knows that dormitory housing will only be provided for 60% of all of the
accepted students. The chance of the student being accepted and receiving dormitory housing
is defined by
P(Accepted and Dormitory Housing) = P(Dormitory Housing|Accepted)P(Accepted) =
(0.60)*(0.80) = 0.48.
Suppose we roll two ordinary, 6-sided dice. What is the expectation of the sum of the two
values showing? What is the expectation of the maximum of the two values showing?
Expectation of sum:
Here are all 36 possible rolls with a pair of dice:

## (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)

(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

## Their sums are

2 3 4 5 6 7
3 4 5 6 7 8
4 5 6 7 8 9
5 6 7 8 9 10
6 7 8 9 10 11
7 8 9 10 11 12

There is 1 2, 2 3's, 3 4's, 4 5's, 5 6's 6 7's, 5 8's, 4 9's, 3 10's, 2 11's and 1 12. And there'
are 36 possible rolls, so the probabilities are the number of ways to roll the sum over 36.

## So we list the probablity distribution function:

Sum of roll Prob. of sum
x P(x) xP(x)
-------------------------------------
2 1/36 2/36
3 2/36 6/36
4 3/36 12/36
5 4/36 20/36
6 5/36 30/36
7 6/36 42/36
8 5/36 40/36
9 4/36 36/36
10 3/36 30/36
11 2/36 22/36
12 1/36 12/36
-------------------------------------
TOTALS 36/36=1 252/36 = 7

## So if you rolled two dice many many times and averaged

up all the sums, you would expect to get an average of about 7.

===================================================
Expectation of maximum:

1 2 3 4 5 6

2 2 3 4 5 6

3 3 3 4 5 6

4 4 4 4 5 6

5 5 5 5 5 6

6 6 6 6 6 6

## There is 1 1, 3 2's, 5 3's, 7 4's, 9 5's and 11 6's.

And there are 36 possible rolls, so the probabilities are the
number of ways to roll the maximum over 36.

## Max of roll Prob. of max

x P(x) xP(x)
-------------------------------------
1 1/36 1/36
2 3/36 6/36
3 5/36 15/36
4 7/36 28/36
5 9/36 45/36
6 11/36 66/36
-------------------------------------
TOTALS 36/36=1 161/36 = 4.47222

## Expectation = E(x) = [xP(x)] = 161/36

==============================================

So if you rolled two dice many many times and averaged up all the maximums, you would
expect to get an average of about 4.47222

The Census Bureau provides data on the number of young adults, ages 1824, who are living in
their parents' home (the data include single young adults who are living in college dormitories
because it is assumed these young adults will return to their parents' home when school is not in
session).
Let the variables M and F represent the following events.

## M = the event a male young adult is living in his parents' home

F = the event a female young adult is living in her parents' home
If we randomly select a male young adult and a female young adult, the Census Bureau data
enable us to conclude P(M) = .56 and P(F) = .42 (The World Almanac, 2006). The probability
that both are living in their parents' home is .24.
What is the probability at least one of the two young adults selected is living in his or her parents'
home (to 2 decimals)?

What is the probability both young adults selected are living on their own (neither is living in
their parents' home) (to 2 decimals)?
Answer: P(M) = .56 and P(F) = .42
M = the event a male young adult is living in his parents' home
F = the event a female young adult is living in her parents' home

## For P(M) = .56, let p = .56 with q = 1 - p. 1-.56 =.44

For P(~M) = .44

For P(F) = .42 -- let p = .42 with q = 1 - p once again. 1-.42 =.58
For P(~F) = .58

## P(~M and ~F) = Both young adults are living alone

P(~M and ~F) = .44 x .58 = .2552
= 0.26