Issue 311

Copyright 2011-2016 www.propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.

 CONTENTS FROM THE

p2 The Property Market is Not Bottoming

EDITOR
Welcome to the 311st edition of the
Singapore Property Weekly.
Out Its a Dead Cat Bounce
Hope you like it!
p8 Resale Property Transactions
Mr. Propwise
(April 29 May 5)

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 311

The Property Market is Not Bottoming Out Its

a Dead Cat Bounce

By Property Soul (guest contributor)

Question: How do I know home buying

sentiment has improved?

Answer: When I receive more email asking

me which units to buy in a new project than
email regretting buying at new launches.

If property purchase sentiments are weak,

there is a reverse in the number of messages
from both sides. This is very accurate there
is no need to conduct any survey.

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 311
Now is the perfect time to launch
There is usually a three month time lag
between the performance of the stock market
and the property market. This is because it
takes around 12 weeks to complete a
property transaction. The Straits Times Index
is on the way up since January. When people
can make money from stocks, they feel
richer and are in the mood to buy
properties.
What are developers waiting for? If not now,
when?
We see developers going all out to launch
new projects: Park Place Residences, The
Clement Canopy, Grandeur Park Residences,
Seaside Residences and there are
countless re-launches of not-so-new projects
with unsold units.
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It is a one-size-fits-all formula: The media
conveys the optimism of the developer,
marketing agent or mortgage bank, not
forgetting to mention a highly anticipated
new project will be launched over the
weekend.
After the first launch weekend, the media
reports the selling of half of the total units in
the project. (Every new launch project moves
half of its stock in that critical first weekend.
But what happens to the other half of the
inventories? When will they be cleared? You
go figure it out.)
Where is the optimism coming from?
Since March this year, realtors have all
jumped on the bandwagon to show their
optimism about the property market:
1. Strong buying interest continues for
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 311
popular launches in the OCR and RCR due to
pent-up demand, rare project, good location,
future hub (Are they hotspots or just hot
potatoes?)
2. The Governments good intention to save
borrowers from refinancing woes and hefty
Seller Stamp Duties in view of an impending
interest rate hike is conveniently interpreted
as hints to remove more cooling measures.
(We see that industry stakeholders are all
very upbeat. But uplifting of Additional Buyer
Stamp Duties? Are you sure?)
3. JLL predicts residential property prices will
bottom by 2018. (So fast? Prices have
corrected only 10 percent so far.)
4. Morgan Stanley says Singapore property
prices will double by 2030. (How much more
do prices have to drop before they can
double? Will the salaries of Singaporeans
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also double by 2030?)
New sales have a direct impact on a
developers report card for the next quarter.
Property agents have to make money
regardless of good or bad times. Banks have
to show some results after a recent cut-throat
price war on housing loans.
So, if you are not a developer, a property
agent, a mortgage broker, or not even an
industry stakeholder, what are you so upbeat
for?
Did you smell the dead cat?
Do you notice that the improved sentiment is
mainly on developer sales, but not from the
HDB, resale or rental market?
The URA recently released the price index of
private residential properties for the 1st
quarter 2017.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 311
Prices of landed properties declined by 1.8
percent while prices of non-landed properties
remained unchanged.
New sales made up 59 per cent and 66 per
cent of total sales in the RCR and OCR
respectively. Launching more projects in the
same quarter doesnt mean that the market is
turning the corner. It only implies that
developers are in a hurry to launch new
projects. If they miss this golden opportunity,
nobody can tell how long they need to wait.
According to the URA, at the end of 1st
quarter 2017 there are 46,016 units (including
ECs) in the supply pipeline and 18,870 units
remain unsold. From now till the end of 2017,
there are 14,242 units waiting for TOP.
How long does it take for actual demand
(HDB upgraders, import of foreigners, natural
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population growth etc.) to catch up with
ongoing supply?
Can anybody tell how fast the Fed will raise
interest rates? Can we foresee the economy
picking up or deteriorating in the next 6 to 12
months? How will macro factors (political
tensions, global debts etc.) impact the
Singapore economy?
If the negatives outnumber the positives, any
small upward movement in sales volume or
price movement is not called bottoming-out. It
is a dead cat bounce except that the
bounce is almost non-existent because we
dont really see a recovery in the market.
And after that, expect a real correction in the
market. A 10 percent drop in prices from what
we are seeing now is nothing.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 311
Dont believe what I say? Take some hints
from what the media had predicted in 1994
and 1995. Do you remember what happened
to the property market after 1996?
To tell or not to tell
I was thinking about keeping mum about it.
Why waste time writing a blog post to warn
home buyers to think twice? People will buy
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anyway. After all, didnt I earn my first pot of
gold from buyers who overcommitted in the
previous property cycle?
But I have given up the thought of profiting
from fire sales of units bought directly from
developers in recent years. I am not
interested to buy shoebox units or tiny flats
with three bedrooms magically squeezed into
less than 800 sq ft.
Although Senior Minister Josephine Teo
reminded us that you do not need much
space to have sex, she has yet to
demonstrate how to do it with minimum
space. There is an urgent need to conduct
show-and-tell sessions to teach young
couples how to maximize the use of limited
space; to make good use of oversized
balconies, aircon ledges , bay windows, etc.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 311
Buying properties for the long-term?

Your property agent may tell you that property

is a long-term investment. You can buy it any
time because no one can time the market. If
you can hold onto it for a number of years,
prices will eventually go up in the long run.

Well, remember those who bought at the

peak of the market in the mid-1990s? It took
them almost 20 years to break-even. Do you
have holding power for 15 to 20 years? I
dont. Thats why I am not buying now.

JLL predicts that residential property prices

will bottom by year-end or early next year.
Well, we have only seven months to go. Lets
wait and see.

By guest contributor Property Soul, a

successful property investor, blogger, and
author of the No B.S. Guide to Property
Investment.

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 311
Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Apr 29 May 5

Postal Area Transacted Price Postal Area Transacted Price

Project Name Tenure Project Name Tenure
District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf)
1 THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY 614 1,148,000 1,871 99 9 8 @ MOUNT SOPHIA 1,378 1,870,000 1,357 103
3 RIVER PLACE 807 1,070,000 1,325 99 9 SOPHIA 98 1,399 1,705,000 1,218 FH
3 QUEENS 1,184 1,480,000 1,250 99 10 GRAMERCY PARK 1,981 5,676,040 2,866 FH
3 RIVER PLACE 2,303 2,610,000 1,133 99 10 GRAMERCY PARK 1,249 3,574,400 2,863 FH
4 THE OCEANFRONT @ SENTOSA COVE 1,711 2,850,000 1,665 99 10 GRAMERCY PARK 1,884 5,088,800 2,701 FH
5 THE ROCHESTER 1,679 2,180,000 1,298 99 10 ONE BALMORAL 969 2,296,000 2,370 FH
5 THE PARC CONDOMINIUM 1,421 1,630,000 1,147 FH 10 MON JERVOIS 614 1,384,243 2,256 99
5 HERITAGE VIEW 1,195 1,350,000 1,130 99 10 MON JERVOIS 1,001 2,221,960 2,220 99
5 MONTEREY PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,367 1,515,000 1,108 999 10 ONE BALMORAL 1,410 3,002,000 2,129 FH
5 BLUE HORIZON 1,152 1,128,000 979 99 10 LEEDON RESIDENCE 2,648 5,556,000 2,098 FH
5 BLUE HORIZON 1,163 1,130,000 972 99 10 RV RESIDENCES 678 1,390,000 2,050 999
5 VISTA PARK 904 760,000 841 99 10 MADISON RESIDENCES 1,464 2,860,000 1,954 FH
8 CITY SQUARE RESIDENCES 1,206 1,600,000 1,327 FH 10 CYAN 657 1,270,000 1,934 FH
8 RESIDENCES @ SOMME 506 580,000 1,146 FH 10 D'LEEDON 786 1,388,000 1,766 99
9 OUE TWIN PEAKS 570 1,860,000 3,260 99 10 D'LEEDON 1,055 1,851,000 1,755 99
9 OUE TWIN PEAKS 549 1,616,500 2,945 99 10 ASTRID MEADOWS 2,045 3,450,000 1,687 FH
9 OUE TWIN PEAKS 549 1,600,000 2,915 99 10 JERVOIS VIEW 2,476 4,040,000 1,632 FH
9 OUE TWIN PEAKS 549 1,557,600 2,837 99 10 BOTANIC GARDENS VIEW 1,410 2,200,000 1,560 FH
9 RICHMOND PARK 1,259 2,850,000 2,263 FH 10 BALMORAL 8 1,905 2,900,000 1,522 FH
9 THE PIER AT ROBERTSON 732 1,338,000 1,828 FH 10 SIGNATURE AT LEWIS 635 960,000 1,512 FH
9 THE BOTANIC ON LLOYD 1,819 3,180,000 1,748 FH 10 QUEENSBERRY LODGE 614 840,000 1,369 FH
9 LUMA 743 1,275,000 1,717 FH 10 BALMORAL GATE 1,636 2,100,000 1,284 FH
9 LEONIE SUITES 926 1,500,000 1,620 99 10 D'LEEDON 5,264 6,477,960 1,231 99
9 PARC EMILY 1,001 1,618,000 1,616 FH 10 RIDGEWOOD 1,744 1,900,000 1,090 999

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 311

Postal Area Transacted Price Postal Area Transacted Price

Project Name Tenure Project Name Tenure
District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf)
10 ONE TREE HILL MANSIONS 1,615 1,450,000 898 99 16 CHANGI GREEN 1,001 850,000 849 FH
11 26 NEWTON 484 1,191,855 2,461 FH 16 CASCADALE 1,561 1,290,000 827 FH
11 SOLEIL @ SINARAN 1,722 3,160,000 1,835 99 16 CASAFINA 1,604 1,250,000 779 99
11 TRILIGHT 2,099 3,514,000 1,674 FH 16 BEDOK COURT 2,260 1,630,000 721 99
11 SKY@ELEVEN 2,271 3,108,000 1,368 FH 17 THE GALE 1,991 1,590,000 798 FH
11 CUBE 8 1,475 1,750,000 1,187 FH 17 LOYANG VALLEY 1,001 730,000 729 99
13 PARC MONDRIAN 904 1,150,000 1,272 FH 19 BOATHOUSE RESIDENCES 624 730,000 1,169 99
14 PALMERA EAST 431 595,000 1,382 FH 19 RIVERSAILS 883 860,000 974 99
14 THE WATER EDGE 398 535,000 1,343 FH 20 THE GARDENS AT BISHAN 883 930,000 1,054 99
14 ASTORIA PARK 958 920,000 960 99 20 GRANDEUR 8 1,195 1,138,000 952 99
15 THE MEYERISE 1,313 2,930,000 2,231 FH 20 GRANDEUR 8 1,109 980,000 884 99
15 THE MEYERISE 883 1,770,000 2,005 FH 21 PARC PALAIS 1,335 1,280,000 959 FH
15 THE MEYERISE 883 1,743,000 1,975 FH 21 PINE GROVE 1,755 1,310,000 747 99
15 THE SERENNO 484 676,000 1,396 FH 21 SHERWOOD TOWER 1,421 1,040,000 732 99
15 FLAMINGO VALLEY 818 1,120,000 1,369 FH 21 THE BEVERLY 2,734 1,910,000 699 FH
15 SUNSHINE MANSIONS 786 938,000 1,194 FH 22 CASPIAN 1,238 1,308,000 1,057 99
15 ST PATRICK'S RESIDENCES 1,453 1,725,000 1,187 FH 22 PARC OASIS 1,389 1,200,000 864 99
15 PEBBLE BAY 1,281 1,470,000 1,148 99 23 MERA WOODS 1,345 1,248,000 928 999
15 LAGUNA PARK 1,615 1,385,000 858 99 23 REGENT HEIGHTS 1,023 822,000 804 99
15 MANDARIN GARDENS 1,528 1,200,000 785 99 23 GUILIN VIEW 1,259 928,000 737 99
16 COSTA DEL SOL 1,227 1,590,000 1,296 99 27 THE MILTONIA RESIDENCES 1,173 1,035,000 882 99
16 UBER 388 1,518 1,830,000 1,206 FH
16 CASA MERAH 1,249 1,280,000 1,025 99 NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property
transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority.
16 LAGUNA GREEN 1,604 1,550,000 966 99
Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchaser
16 CASA MERAH 1,550 1,390,000 897 99
signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.
16 THE BAYSHORE 926 820,000 886 99

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