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Introduction
I=P A T
In 1968, Paul Erlich, who first introduced the IPAT equation, wrote a book called
The Population Bomb that predicted a terrible shortage, starvation and
collapse if population continued to rise. Julian Simon, an economist, was quite
skeptical of Erlichs black view of the future. Based on his work as an
economist, Simon thought that the combination of human inventiveness and
effective economic markets would lead to imaginative solutions saving humans
from starvation and collapse even in the face of shortage essentially arguing
that the carrying capacity of the Earth, for clever humans, at least, was infinite.
To bring attention to his views, Julian publicly challenged Erlich to a bet. To find
out more about the bet and how it all came out, listen to (or read) the following
descriptions of the bet.
A Bet, five metals and the future of The Planet, by David Kestenbaum on
All Things Considered, January 2, 2014.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/12/31/258687278/a-bet-five-
metals-and-the-future-of-the-planet
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1. What was the bet based on? The bet was based on the population and if we
will run out of resources. Erlich believed as the population increased the
prices of resources would also increase due to less availability. Simon argued
that humans would adapt and find new solutions. They decided to test their
ideas with a bet. The bet was on if various metal prices would go up or down
in the following ten years.
2. Why do you think Erlich and his colleagues chose those items to bet on?
Why did they think the price of those items would go up over a 10-year
period? Erlich choose items that were highly demanded and in his eyes,
would likely increase in demand in the future. He believed the price would
go up in the next ten years because he believed the demand would increase
as an effect of population growth.
3. Are the items they chose to bet on essential to life? The items he chose
were not required for life but were very useful. He chose supplementary
items. Metals are not needed for our survival, but are useful and helpful.
5. Who would have won the bet if the 10-year period that was chosen ended
today? Some prices went up and some went down. More of the prices
dropped, so Simon would also win this bet.
6. What does Dr. Sabin, writing in the New York Times about the bet, think that
Paul Erlich and the environmentalists that support him missed about
Simons position? Erlich and the environmentalists did not take the fact the
humans can adapt and change into consideration.
7. What does Dr. Sabin think that the more conservative forces that support
Julian Simons position did not understand about Paul Erlichs position? Erlich
did not take the market into consideration at all in his proposition. He simply
just looked at numbers and did not take social changes or adaptations into
consideration.
8. What commodities do you expect will be much more costly 10 years from
now? Why? I believe non-renewable sources will be costlier in the future
because we are starting to run low on the sources. Non-renewable sources
are being used much faster than they are being produced.