QUÉBEC MAY 2017

EMBARGOED UNTIL:
6 AM EST, MAY 17, 2017
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POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Methodology About Mainstreet
Mainstreet surveyed a stratified random sample of With 20 years of political experience at all three
1,501 Québec residents from May 11-12, 2017 levels of government, President and CEO Quito
through live interviews. Landline and cell lines Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
were included. Responses were weighted using public affairs.
demographic information to targets based on the
2011 census. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
The margin of error for survey results is ± 2.53 public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
of error is greater for sub samples. government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling firm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal
majority government in the 2015 federal election.

Contact Information

In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Montréal: David Valentin, Executive Vice
President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
AMID ETHICAL CLOUD, CAQ TAKES THE LEAD

May 17, 2017 (Montréal, QC) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll produced for the Montréal Gazette finds
the CAQ surging to first place as the Québec Liberals continue a downward trend following the budget.
The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“Both the Liberals and the PQ have lost ground to the CAQ as ethics have come back to the fore of the
provincial conversation” said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. “Though the
government has been applauded for its response to the flooding they are now 8 percentage points back
from the brief honeymoon they enjoyed post-budget.”

“The numbers are challenging for the Party Québecois - particularly given the sustained growth of Québec
Solidaire. Despite the PQ pushing for a formal co-operation agreement, Québec Solidaire seems content to
take its time. The PQ is not leading in a single demographic category right now. This situation is untenable
for their success and it is no wonder that they are pushing agressively to have co-operation.”

“There is good news for the Liberals in that they are leading outside of Québec City and Montréal - but they
are tied now with the CAQ in the Greater Montréal Area (Montréal CMA). How ridings would swing during
an election is hard to predict, especially given that new boundaries are set to take effect.”

“Québec Solidaire appears to have solidified earlier gains this month. Among non-Francophones they are
now in the low double digits, an improvement over last month that could be the start of a trend or
statististical noise.”

“For the CAQ this month it is all good news. They are leading by one percentage point provincially,
statistically tied with the Liberals. The question is: will they be able to hold onto their gains and grow their
support into the next election?”

“The electoral terrain will be challenging for both the Liberals and PQ moving forward. Until the PQ is able
to have a co-operation agreement in place they will find themselves struggling. New revelations about
alleged ethical misconduct by PQ MNA Gaétan Lelièvre will not help matters in the slightest. The Liberals,
meanwhile, will face headlines related to new and past investigations. Nathalie Normandeau and Marc-Yvan
Côté are headed to trial, Jean Charest is under investigation - the negative headlines will follow the Liberals
and voters will continue to read these stories in the news, that’s the climate all three parties will operate
under moving forward” finished Valentin.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, david@mainstreetresearch.ca
Decided & Leaning Voters

CAQ Ascendent
Corruption stories have been surrounding the
provincial Liberals - and the CAQ have been the
beneficiaries of renewed public attention on ethics in
government.

The effects on the provincial landscape have been
immediate and wide-ranging. Most worryingly for the
government are the regional numbers for the Montréal
CMA where the Liberals are tied with the CAQ at 32%.

For the PQ, these numbers get more and more
challenging. It’s a three-way race outside of Montréal
and Québec City, and tight three way races alongside a
nascent Quebéc Solidaire could mean a virtual wipeout.

The PQ are not leading with a single demographic
group - not francophones, not seniors, not boomers
etc. Québec Solidaire meanwhile is now capturing 11%
of non-francophones. This could be noise or the start of
a trend, we will need to keep watching.
All Voters
May 2017
April 2017

Mainstreet surveyed a stratified random sample of 1,501 Québec residents from April 12-13, 2017 through
live interviews. Landline and Cell lines were included. Responses were weighed using demographic
information to targets based on the 2011 Census.

The margin of error for survey results is ± 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error
is greater for sub samples.

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