Monday, 26 July 2010

Central European Daily

Written by CSOB Prague, CSOB Bratislava, Kredyt Bank Warsaw and K&H Budapest

Headlines
Currencies: EUR/CZK pair is sliding towards the 25.0 level

Czech Republic
The Czech koruna has reacted in an excellent way to the positive eco data from Ger-
many. The predictive ability of the German index Ifo has improved during the crisis and
Currencies change it is reasonable to assume that the Czech economy is directly affected by the situation
EUR/CZK 25.15 -0.3% in Germany. Thus the good news from Germany has permitted the Czech koruna to
roll down to the closeness of 25.10 EUR/CZK.
EUR/HUF 285.3 -0.1%
EUR/PLN 4.047 -1.0% The Czech koruna has proved in past to be successfully ignoring the negative devel-
USD/PLN 3.227 0.0% opments and on contrary benefit the most from the positive sessions. From a technical
point of view thus the strongest values from the year 2009 could be tested – that is, the
EUR/USD 1.293 0.5% level of 24.975 EUR/CZK.
USD/JPY 87.3 0.3%

Bonds 2Y change
Czech Rep. 1.81 0.07
Hungary 3Y 7.42 0.11
Poland 4.75 0.04
Slovakia 1.80 0.10
Eurozone 0.76 0.06
USA 0.58 0.02

Bonds 10Y change EUR/CZK: Koruna profits from strong German data.
Czech Rep. 3.88 -0.03
Hungary 7.55 0.06
Poland 5.85 0.00
Slovakia 3.97 -0.05
Eurozone 2.72 0.07
USA 2.98 0.05

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Monday, 26 July 2010

Central European Daily

Poland
The Polish zloty was doing extremely well and after the good result of the German Ifo
index and domestic retail sales, it has moved under the 4.05 EUR/PLN. The June retail
sales have risen an impressive 6.5% y/y. Even though the number is published in
nominal value and is deviated up due to the high inflation of food prices, the numbers
still point to a rise of real consumption in the second quarter.

This week has no important events on the domestic arena. The zloty will behave itself
according to the results of the contest between the bears and the bulls on global equity
markets. From the technical point of view, it is close to testing the 4.00 EUR/PLN level.

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Monday, 26 July 2010

Central European Daily

Tables of rates
IBO R 3M chang e FRA 3x6 chang e Cen tral Ban k Rate last chn g
Czech Rep. 1.23 0.01 Cz ech Rep . 1.21 -0.01 Czech Rep . 0.75 -25
Hun gary 5.32 0.01 Hu ng ary 5.87 0.13 Hung ary 5.25 -25
Po land 3.81 -0.01 Polan d 4.01 0.02 Poland 3.50 -25
Slovakia 1.00 -25
Eu ro zon e 0.89 0.00 Euroz one 1.04 0.01 Euro zon e 1.00 -25
USA 0.49 0.05 US A 0.54 0.05 USA 0.25 -75

IRS 2Y chang e IRS 10Y chang e STO CKS close ch an ge

Czech Rep. 1.71 0.01 Cz ech Rep . 2.86 0.03 PX 1166.4 -0.3%
Hun gary 6.34 0.13 Hu ng ary 6.78 0.12 BUX 21942.9 -1.5%
Po land 4.62 0.04 Polan d 5.39 0.04 W IG 42292 0.3%
Euro sto x 2719.13 0.2%
Eu ro zon e 1.42 0.08 Euroz one 2.97 0.05 DAX 6166.3 0.4%
USA 0.84 0.06 US A 0.54 0.06 S&P 1103 0.8%

Calendar
Forecast Consensus Previous
Date Time Indicator Period
m/m y/y m/m y/y m/m y/y
HU 26.7.2010 09:00 Retail sales (%) 05/2010 -3.8 -5.0
HU 28.7.2010 09:00 Unemployment rate (%) 06/2010 11.2 11.4
HU 29.7.2010 09:00 PPI (%) 06/2010 6.7 3.8 5.5
HU 30.7.2010 09:00 Trade balance (EUR M) 05/2010 *F 428.8
CZ 30.7.2010 11:00 Money supply M2 (%) 06/2010 4.0

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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3