Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0% 7.0%
6.2%
6.0% 5.3% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2%
4.4%
4.0%
2.6% 2.4%
1.8%
2.0%
0.7% 1.2% 1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-3.4%
-6.0%
*Reporting period varies by country Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
And central banks continue monetary easingexcept U.S.
Interest Rates % (10-yr Gov bonds)
10
9.6
8.1
6.9
3.7
2.3
1.6
1.2 0.84
0.39 0.69 0.47 0.39 0.57
0.04 0
Demographic
Economic
Political
Technological
Real estate
CHANGES
280000
285000
290000
295000
300000
305000
310000
315000
320000
325000
330000
200601
200604
200607
200610
200701
200704
200707
200710
200801
200804
200807
200810
200901
200904
200907
200910
201001
201004
201007
201010
201101
201104
201107
201110
201201
201204
201207
201210
U.S. Estimate of Resident Population (000s)
201301
201304
201307
201310
U.S. population grows 9% in past decade
201401
201404
201407
201410
201501
201504
201507
201510
201601
201604
201607
201610
2017: 325 M
Gen Y (20-37)
24.5%
15.4% Gen Z (0-19)
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
0.0
10000.0
15000.0
20000.0
5000.0
-5000.0
2000.Q1
2000.Q1
2000.Q2
2000.Q2
2000.Q3
2000.Q3
2000.Q4
2000.Q4
2001.Q1
2001.Q1
2001.Q2
2001.Q2
2001.Q3
2001.Q3
2001.Q4
2001.Q4
2002.Q1
2002.Q1
2002.Q2
2002.Q2
2002.Q3
2002.Q3
2002.Q4
2002.Q4
2003.Q1
2003.Q1
2003.Q2
2003.Q2
2003.Q3
2003.Q3
2003.Q4
2003.Q4
2004.Q1
2004.Q1
2004.Q2
2004.Q2
2004.Q3
2004.Q3
2004.Q4
2004.Q4
2005.Q1 2005.Q1
2005.Q2 2005.Q2
2005.Q3
Consumer Spending
2005.Q3
2005.Q4 2005.Q4
2006.Q1 2006.Q1
2006.Q2 2006.Q2
2006.Q3 2006.Q3
2006.Q4 2006.Q4
2007.Q1 2007.Q1
2007.Q2 2007.Q2
2007.Q4: $15.0 T
2007.Q3 2007.Q3
2007.Q4
Investments
2007.Q4
2008.Q1 2008.Q1
2008.Q2 2008.Q2
2008.Q3 2008.Q3
2008.Q4 2008.Q4
2009.Q1 2009.Q1
2009.Q2 2009.Q2
2009.Q3 2009.Q3
2009.Q4 2009.Q4
Net Exports
2010.Q1 2010.Q1
2010.Q2
Real GDP (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2009$)
2010.Q2
2010.Q3 2010.Q3
2010.Q4 2010.Q4
2011.Q1 2011.Q1
2011.Q2 2011.Q2
2011.Q3 2011.Q3
2011.Q4 2011.Q4
2012.Q1 2012.Q1
2012.Q2 2012.Q2
2012.Q3 2012.Q3
2012.Q4 2012.Q4
2013.Q1 2013.Q1
Real Gross Domestic Product (SAAR, Chn.2009$) % Change - Annual Rate
2013.Q2 2013.Q2
Government Spending
2013.Q3 2013.Q3
2013.Q4 2013.Q4
2014.Q1 2014.Q1
2014.Q2 2014.Q2
2014.Q3 2014.Q3
2014.Q4 2014.Q4
2015.Q1 2015.Q1
2015.Q2 2015.Q2
Upside: consumers remain economic growth engine
2015.Q3 2015.Q3
2015.Q4 2015.Q4
2016.Q1 2016.Q1
2016.Q2 2016.Q2
2016.Q3 2016.Q3
2016.Q4 2016.Q4
2017.Q1: $16.9 T
2017.Q1 2017.Q1
Source: BEA
Source: BEA
-40.00
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
0.00
2000.Q1
2000.Q3
2001.Q1
2001.Q3
2002.Q1
2002.Q3
2003.Q1
2003.Q3
2004.Q1
2004.Q3
2005.Q1
Durable goods
2005.Q3
2006.Q1
2006.Q3
2007.Q1
2007.Q3
2008.Q1
Rate
2008.Q3
2009.Q1
2009.Q3
2010.Q1
2010.Q3
Nondurable goods
2011.Q1
2011.Q3
2012.Q1
2012.Q3
2013.Q1
2013.Q3
Services
2014.Q1
2014.Q3
Personal Consumption (SAAR, Chn.2009$) % Chg Annual
2015.Q1
2015.Q3
2016.Q1
2016.Q3
2017.Q1
Source: BEA
15.0000
20.0000
25.0000
10.0000
0.0000
5.0000
Jan.2000
Aug.2000
With spending focused on goods
Mar.2001
Oct.2001
May.2002
Dec.2002
Jul.2003
Feb.2004
Sep.2004
Apr.2005
Nov.2005
Jun.2006
Jan.2007
Aug.2007
Mar.2008
Oct.2008
May.2009
Dec.2009
Jul.2010
Feb.2011
Sep.2011
Apr.2012
Nov.2012
Jun.2013
Jan.2014
Total Car Retail Sales [Imported+Domestic] (SAAR, Mil. Units)
Aug.2014
Mar.2015
Oct.2015
Total Light Truck Retail Sales [Imported+Domestic] (SAAR, Mil. Units)
May.2016
Total Light Vehicle Retail Sales [Imported+Domestic] (SAAR, Mil. Units)
Dec.2016
Source: Autodata
-500
0
1000
1500
2000
2500
500
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Net Household Formation (Thous)
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1200
1800
200
400
600
800
2000.Jan
2000.Jul
2001.Jan
2001.Jul
2002.Jan
2002.Jul
2003.Jan
2003.Jul
2004.Jan
2004.Jul
2005.Jan
2005.Jul
2006.Jan
2006.Jul
2007.Jan
2007.Jul
2008.Jan
2008.Jul
2009.Jan
2009.Jul
2010.Jan
2010.Jul
2011.Jan
2011.Jul
Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units)
2012.Jan
2012.Jul
2013.Jan
2013.Jul
2014.Jan
2014.Jul
2015.Jan
New 1-Family Houses Sold: United States (SAAR, Thous)
Downside: population growth outpaces housing supply
2015.Jul
2016.Jan
2016.Jul
Source: Census Bureau
2017.Jan
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
200001
200007
200101
200107
200201
200207
200301
200307
200401
200407
200501
200507
200601
200607
200701
200707
200801
200807
200901
200907
201001
States (Months)
201007
201101
201107
201201
201207
201301
201307
201401
201407
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United
201501
201507
201601
201607
201701
1000000
2000.Jan
2000.Aug
($)
2001.Mar
2001.Oct
2002.May
2002.Dec
2003.Jul
2004.Feb
2004.Sep
2005.Apr
2005.Nov
2006.Jun
2007.Jan
2007.Aug
2008.Mar
2008.Oct
2009.May
2009.Dec
2010.Jul
Leading to inventory shortage and rising prices
2011.Feb
2011.Sep
2012.Apr
2012.Nov
2013.Jun
2014.Jan
2014.Aug
2015.Mar
2015.Oct
2016.May
NAR Total Existing Home Sales, United States (SAAR, Units)
2016.Dec
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States
0.000
2000.Q1
2000.Q3
2001.Q1
2001.Q3
2002.Q1
2002.Q3
2003.Q1
2003.Q3
2004.Q1
2004.Q3
2005.Q1
2005.Q3
2006.Q1
2006.Q3
2007.Q1
2007.Q3
2008.Q1
2008.Q3
2009.Q1
2009.Q3
2010.Q1
2010.Q3
2011.Q1
2011.Q3
2012.Q1
2012.Q3
2013.Q1
2013.Q3
2014.Q1
Households & Nonprofit Org: Total Financial Assets (NSA, Bil.$)
2014.Q3
2015.Q1
2015.Q3
2016.Q1
15000.000
Capital holders ride a rising tide
20001
20003
20011
20013
20021
20023
20031
20033
20041
20043
20051
20053
20061
20063
20071
20073
20081
20083
20091
20093
20101
20103
20111
20113
20121
20123
20131
20133
20141
20143
Households: Nonfinancial/Tangible Assets: Real Estate (NSA, Bil.$)
20151
20153
20161
20163
Source: Federal Researve Board
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
10.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
1960.Q1
1961.Q1
1962.Q1
1963.Q1
1964.Q1
1965.Q1
1966.Q1
1967.Q1
1968.Q1
1969.Q1
1970.Q1
1971.Q1
1972.Q1
1973.Q1
1974.Q1
1975.Q1
1976.Q1
1977.Q1
1978.Q1
1979.Q1
1980.Q1
1981.Q1
1982.Q1
1983.Q1
1984.Q1
1985.Q1
1986.Q1
1987.Q1
1988.Q1
1989.Q1
1990.Q1
1991.Q1
1992.Q1
1993.Q1
1994.Q1
1995.Q1
1996.Q1
1997.Q1
1998.Q1
1999.Q1
2000.Q1
2001.Q1
2002.Q1
2003.Q1
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
Real Personal Income excluding Current Transfer Receipts (SAAR, Chn.2009$) % Change - YoY
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Source: BEA
2017.Q1
While consumers without assets lag on stagnating wages
Consumer credit growsas does student debt
Consumer Credit - YoY % Change (EOP, SA, Bil.$) Finance Companies Credit Unions
Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (EOP, SA, $) % Change - Year to Federal Government Nonfinancial Businesses
Year FRB Securitized Assets
1200.00000
Nonrevolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (EOP, SA, $) % Change -
20.00 Year to Year FRB
Student Debt:
1000.00000
Jan.2000 = $84B > Mar.2017 = $1.1T
15.00
800.00000
10.00
600.00000
5.00
400.00000
0.00
Jan.2000
Jan.2001
Jan.2002
Jan.2003
Jan.2004
Jan.2005
Jan.2006
Jan.2007
Jan.2008
Jan.2009
Jan.2010
Jan.2011
Jan.2012
Jan.2013
Jan.2014
Jan.2015
Jan.2016
Jan.2017
Jul.2000
Jul.2001
Jul.2002
Jul.2003
Jul.2004
Jul.2005
Jul.2006
Jul.2007
Jul.2008
Jul.2009
Jul.2010
Jul.2011
Jul.2012
Jul.2013
Jul.2014
Jul.2015
Jul.2016
200.00000
-5.00
-10.00 0.00000
Dec.2002
Dec.2009
Dec.2016
Aug.2000
Mar.2001
Oct.2001
May.2002
Apr.2005
Aug.2007
Mar.2008
Oct.2008
May.2009
Apr.2012
Aug.2014
Mar.2015
Oct.2015
May.2016
Jan.2000
Nov.2005
Jun.2006
Jan.2007
Nov.2012
Jun.2013
Jan.2014
Jul.2003
Feb.2004
Sep.2004
Jul.2010
Feb.2011
Sep.2011
-15.00 Source: Federal Source: Federal Reserve Board
Employment maintains momentum
One-month Payroll Job Changes (in thousands) 2010-16: Payroll Employment Growth by Sector (SA, 000s)
600
Government
400
2010 - 16: 15.8M jobs added
Other services
2001.Jan
2002.Jan
2003.Jan
2004.Jan
2005.Jan
2006.Jan
2007.Jan
2008.Jan
2009.Jan
2010.Jan
2011.Jan
2012.Jan
2013.Jan
2014.Jan
2015.Jan
2016.Jan
2000.Jul
2001.Jul
2002.Jul
2003.Jul
2004.Jul
2005.Jul
2006.Jul
2007.Jul
2008.Jul
2009.Jul
2010.Jul
2011.Jul
2012.Jul
2013.Jul
2014.Jul
2015.Jul
2016.Jul
-200 Financial activities
Information
-400
-800 Construction
400
2000.Jan
2000.May
2000.Sep
2001.Jan
2001.May
2001.Sep
2002.Jan
2002.May
2002.Sep
2003.Jan
2003.May
2003.Sep
2004.Jan
2004.May
2004.Sep
2005.Jan
2005.May
2005.Sep
2006.Jan
2006.May
2006.Sep
2007.Jan
2007.May
2007.Sep
2008.Jan
2008.May
2008.Sep
Unemployment Insurance Claims (SA, 000s)
2009.Jan
2009.May
2009.Sep
2010.Jan
2010.May
2010.Sep
2011.Jan
2011.May
2011.Sep
2012.Jan
2012.May
2012.Sep
2013.Jan
2013.May
And unemployment rate declines to 4.4%
2013.Sep
2014.Jan
2014.May
2014.Sep
2015.Jan
2015.May
2015.Sep
2016.Jan
2016.May
2016.Sep
2017.Jan
Unemployment Rate: 16 Yr+ (SA, %)
0.0
2.0
6.0
8.0
4.0
10.0
12.0
20.0
60.0
80.0
40.0
2000.Jan
2000.May
2000.Sep
2001.Jan
2001.May
2001.Sep
2002.Jan
2002.May
2002.Sep
2003.Jan
2003.May
2003.Sep
2004.Jan
2004.May
2004.Sep
2005.Jan
2005.May
2005.Sep
2006.Jan
2006.May
2006.Sep
2007.Jan
2007.May
2007.Sep
2008.Jan
2008.May
2008.Sep
2009.Jan
2009.May
2009.Sep
2010.Jan
2010.May
2010.Sep
2011.Jan
2011.May
2011.Sep
2012.Jan
Conference Board: Consumer Confidence (SA, 1985=100)
2012.May
2012.Sep
2013.Jan
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (NSA, Q1-66=100)
2013.May
2013.Sep
Consumer confidence picks up post-election
2014.Jan
2014.May
2014.Sep
2015.Jan
2015.May
2015.Sep
2016.Jan
2016.May
2016.Sep
2017.Jan
Sources: The Conference Board, University of Michigan
Hows business?
Investments rebound; double-digit bump on structures Q1
Real Private Nonresidential Investment (SAAR, Chn2009$, %Chg Annual Rate)
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
-20.00
-40.00
-60.00
Source: BEA
-80.00
35.0
40.0
45.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
30.0
50.0
2000.Jan
2000.Jul
2001.Jan
2001.Jul
2002.Jan
2002.Jul
2003.Jan
2003.Jul
2004.Jan
2004.Jul
2005.Jan
2005.Jul
2006.Jan
2006.Jul
2007.Jan
ISM Manufacturing
2007.Jul
2008.Jan
2008.Jul
2009.Jan
2009.Jul
2010.Jan
2010.Jul
2011.Jan
2011.Jul
2012.Jan
ISM Index (SA, 50+ Increasing)
2012.Jul
2013.Jan
2013.Jul
2014.Jan
2014.Jul
ISM Nonmanufacturing
2015.Jan
2015.Jul
2016.Jan
2016.Jul
80.000
90.000
2000.Q1
2000.Q3
2001.Q1
2001.Q3
2002.Q1
2002.Q3
2003.Q1
2003.Q3
2004.Q1
2004.Q3
2005.Q1
2005.Q3
Expansion and productivity gains continue
2006.Q1
2006.Q3
2007.Q1
2007.Q3
2008.Q1
2008.Q3
2009.Q1
Productivity
2009.Q3
2010.Q1
2010.Q3
2011.Q1
2011.Q3
Business Sector: Real Output (SA, 2009=100)
2012.Q1
2012.Q3
2013.Q1
Manufacturing Sector: Real Output (SA, 2009=100)
2013.Q3
2014.Q1
Nonfinancial Corporations: Real Output (SA, 2009=100)
2014.Q3
2015.Q1
2015.Q3
2016.Q1
2016.Q3
Source: BLS
2017.Q1
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
2000.0
2200.0
2400.0
2600.0
2800.0
3000.0
2000.Q1
2000.Q3
2001.Q1
2001.Q3
2002.Q1
2002.Q3
2003.Q1
2003.Q3
2004.Q1
2004.Q3
2005.Q1
2005.Q3
2006.Q1
2006.Q3
2007.Q1
2007.Q3
2008.Q1
2008.Q3
2009.Q1
2009.Q3
2010.Q1
International Trade
2010.Q3
2011.Q1
2011.Q3
2012.Q1
2012.Q3
2013.Q1
2013.Q3
2014.Q1
2014.Q3
2015.Q1
Real Exports of Goods & Services (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2009$)
Real Imports of Goods & Services (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2009$)
2015.Q3
2016.Q1
2016.Q3
Source: BEA
2017.Q1
0.8000
0.9000
1.0000
1.1000
1.2000
1.3000
1.4000
1.5000
1.6000
1.7000
2000.Jan
2000.Jul
2001.Jan
2001.Jul
2002.Jan
2002.Jul
2003.Jan
2003.Jul
2004.Jan
2004.Jul
2005.Jan
2005.Jul
2006.Jan
2006.Jul
2007.Jan
2007.Jul
2008.Jan
2008.Jul
2009.Jan
Net exports feel the impact of a stronger dollar
2009.Jul
US$/Euro) FRB
2010.Jan
2010.Jul
2011.Jan
2011.Jul
2012.Jan
2012.Jul
2013.Jan
2013.Jul
2014.Jan
2014.Jul
Foreign Exchange Rate: European Monetary Union (EOP,
2015.Jan
2015.Jul
2016.Jan
2016.Jul
source: Federal Reserve
2017.Jan
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
2000.Jan
2000.Jul
2001.Jan
2001.Jul
2002.Jan
2002.Jul
%Chg)
2003.Jan
2003.Jul
2004.Jan
2004.Jul
2005.Jan
2005.Jul
2006.Jan
2006.Jul
2007.Jan
2007.Jul
2008.Jan
2008.Jul
2009.Jan
2009.Jul
2010.Jan
2010.Jul
2011.Jan
2011.Jul
2012.Jan
2012.Jul
CPI-U: All Items, 1982-84=100 (Y/Y %Change)
2013.Jan
2013.Jul
2014.Jan
2014.Jul
2015.Jan
2015.Jul
CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy: 1982-84=100 (Y/Y
2016.Jan
2016.Jul
2017.Jan
Source: BLS
0.0000
1.0000
2.0000
4.0000
5.0000
6.0000
7.0000
3.0000
2000.Jan
2000.Jul
2001.Jan
2001.Jul
2002.Jan
2002.Jul
2003.Jan
2003.Jul
2004.Jan
2004.Jul
2005.Jan
2005.Jul
2006.Jan
2006.Jul
2007.Jan
2007.Jul
2008.Jan
2008.Jul
2009.Jan
2009.Jul
Inflation moves up, as Fed indicates more hikes
2010.Jan
2010.Jul
2011.Jan
2011.Jul
2012.Jan
2012.Jul
FOMC Fed Funds Target Rate Forecast
2013.Jan
2013.Jul
2014.Jan
2014.Jul
2015.Jan
2015.Jul
2016.Jan
2016.Jul
2017.Jan
2017.Jun
2017.Dec
Source: Federal Reserve Board, NAR
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
0.00
5.00
2000.Q1
2000.Q2
2000.Q3
2000.Q4
2001.Q1
2001.Q2
2001.Q3
2001.Q4
2002.Q1
2002.Q2
2002.Q3
2002.Q4
2003.Q1
2003.Q2
2003.Q3
2003.Q4
2004.Q1
2004.Q2
2004.Q3
2004.Q4
2005.Q1
2005.Q2
2005.Q3
2005.Q4
2006.Q1
2006.Q2
2006.Q3
2006.Q4
2007.Q1
2007.Q2
2007.Q3
Federal
2007.Q4
2008.Q1
2008.Q2
2008.Q3
2008.Q4
2009.Q1
2009.Q2
2009.Q3
2009.Q4
State & Local
2010.Q1
2010.Q2
2010.Q3
2010.Q4
2011.Q1
2011.Q2
2011.Q3
2011.Q4
2012.Q1
2012.Q2
2012.Q3
Government Spending (SAAR, Chn.2009$) %Chg Annual Rate
2012.Q4
2013.Q1
2013.Q2
2013.Q3
2013.Q4
2014.Q1
2014.Q2
2014.Q3
2014.Q4
Government spending reflects a skinnier budget
2015.Q1
2015.Q2
2015.Q3
2015.Q4
2016.Q1
2016.Q2
2016.Q3
2016.Q4
2017.Q1
Source: BEA
Economic Outlook
U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK April 2017
Capital Markets
In Search of Debt
Crowdfunding
Technology
E-Commerce
Demographics
Sustainability
Regulations
Other Trends
Economy in 2017: Accelerating Changes