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Environmental and Natural

Resource Economics Project

Hydroelectric Power Generation vs

Wind Power Generation

Anum Elahi
Section A

Submitted by:
Ahmed Muzaffar
Faique Zameer

Naufil Nadeem Dar

Osama Fayyaz

Shoaib Ayub

Uzair Ali
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Table of Contents

Contents
Abstract.......................................................................................................................................................3
Electricity Situation in Pakistan...................................................................................................................4
Scope...........................................................................................................................................................4
Hypothesis...................................................................................................................................................4
Research Questions.....................................................................................................................................5
Major Question........................................................................................................................................5
Subsidiary Question.................................................................................................................................5
Research Methodology................................................................................................................................5
Literature Review........................................................................................................................................5
Where do we need to build the Hydroelectric Power Plants or Wind Power Plants?...............................5
Wind Power.........................................................................................................................................5
Hydroelectric Power............................................................................................................................7
Environmental Effect of Hydroelectric and Wind Power Plants..................................................................9
Wind Power.............................................................................................................................................9
Advantages of wind energy................................................................................................................11
Negative Effects of Wind Power Plants.............................................................................................14
Effects of Hydroelectric Power Plants...................................................................................................15
Cost and Benefit Analysis of Wind Power and Hydroelectric Power.........................................................17
Wind power...........................................................................................................................................17
Cost-Benefit Analysis Hydroelectric Power..........................................................................................21
.Conclusion................................................................................................................................................30
Questionnaire.............................................................................................................................................32
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Abstract
This report is based on the comparison of hydroelectric power generation and Wind
power generation in Pakistan. Considering the fact that Pakistan is currently going through
power deficit, which has led to excess amount of load shedding all over the country. This report
will cover the costs incurred by both the projects, and their effect on environment. Moreover,
benefits of both the projects will be analyzed, after which we will develop final hypothesis
regarding which project is viable for the electricity generation in Pakistan to cover up the deficit.
Mainly secondary research was used to complete the project along with the questionnaire.
Towards the end, we went with Alternate Hypothesis that Hydroelectric Power is more viable for
Pakistan because of numerous benefits.
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Electricity Situation in Pakistan

Electricity deficit is one of the leading problems of Pakistan. Throughout the history,
meeting the demand for electricity has always been a problem. Electricity is among the leading
factors for prosperity of a nation. As it is needed by almost every sector to run properly.
Industrial sector is the largest sector which is affected by power deficit, because of excessive
load shedding, they have to run their industries on generators which incur extra cost to the
owners. Furthermore, the industries are not able to run up to their full potential because of
frequent power outages. Over 140 million Pakistanis either have no access to the power grid or
suffer over 12 hours of loadshedding daily.

The average shortfall in the power sector is 4,000 MegaWatts. The shortfall in the power
sector can rise to around 7,000MW or 32pc of total demand for electricity. Chronic power
shortage, in the form of load-shedding and power outages, costed the Pakistan economy Rs14
billion (7pc of GDP) in 2015. 500,000 households are impacted with unemployment as
businesses have been forced to shut down due to energy shortages. In the last five years, Pakistan
has taken a hit of Rs145 billion per annum from system losses in the grid due to inefficient
transmission and distribution. Investment in the power sector has fallen to 0.7pc of the GDP in
the last 10 years, from a high of 1.5pc during the 1980s and 1990s.In the last five years, Pakistan
has taken a hit of Rs145 billion per annum from system losses in the grid due to inefficient
transmission and distribution.

Scope
This project report is academic in nature. It will look upon the hydroelectric and wind
power generation for reducing down the deficit. Costs and benefits analyzed of both the projects
will help us understand, that which source is more important for Pakistan to reduce their power
deficit. Furthermore, it will help us understand the environmental effects of both the projects, and
which project has the minimal effects on nature

Hypothesis
Which power generation project is more viable for Pakistan

The major hypothesis concerned is:

H0 = Wind Power Generation is viable

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H1 = Hydroelectric Power Generation is viable

Research Questions
Major Question
Whether Wind Power is more viable or Hydroelectric Power is more viable?

Subsidiary Question
Where do we need to build the Hydroelectric Power Plants or Wind Power Plants?

Environmental Effects of Hydroelectric Power Plants and Wind Power Plants?

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Hydroelectric Power and Wind Power Plants?

Research Methodology
The major part of our project was done using the secondary research, using the academic
journals, research, newspaper articles published already on these topics. Furthermore, to get the
feedback of general public, a questionnaire was used.

Literature Review
Where do we need to build the Hydroelectric Power Plants or Wind
Power Plants?
Wind Power
Wind energy is considered not only cost effective, but also a sustainable power source
globally. The developed and developing economies are encouraging setups of wind power plants
to meet their energy needs in the wake of depleting reserves of oil and gas. Fortunately, Pakistan
is blessed with windy corridors in its highland and coastal regions. The wind density and speeds
in these areas are suitable for small to large scales wind power projects.

According to the report of National Renewable energy Laboratory (NREL), United States
that the Pakistan have a huge amount of wind energy potential around 346 GW for the power
generation. A complete wind map of Pakistan wind corridors are shown in Fig. 9. It is projected
for wind energy scenario that around 0.5 TW can be produced at the end of 2016. In the Sindh
wind corridor zones, the wind speed reaches approximately about 512 m/s (Sheikh, 2010).
Pakistan have the coastal line of Sindh, which has abundant sources of wind up to 20 GW
electricity generation potential. Proper utilization of wind potential only exists within the Sindh
province for power generation, may fulfill the mandate of electricity crises in the country
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(Muneer and Asif, 2007). The Pakistans coastal line wind area in the map is close to 1100 km, in
which 250 km falling in Sindh province

The government's claim about the province having 60 kilometre long and 170 kilometre
deep off the coastline Gharo-Kati Bandar wind corridor has been added with a substance by a
detailed survey conducted by Pakistan metrological department (PMD) in collaboration with the
ministry of science and technology.

The wind mapping project conducted, focused on Sindh and Balochistan. The
observatories included Badin, Baghan, Chuhar Jamali, Karachi, Gharo, Golarchi, Hawksbay,
Hyderabad, Jamshoro, Jati, Kati Bandar, Matli, MirPurSakro, Nooriabad, Sajawal, Shah Bandar,
Talhar, Thano Bula Khan, and Thatta. Wind speed and density was measured at different heights
at all these sites under observation. According to the international classification, wind speeds at
Jamshoro, Kati Bandar and Nooriabad were tagged as excellent because they were recorded
blowing over 7m/s speed in these locations.
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There are other sites too where wind energy setups maybe suitable for example National
Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA had marked three sites of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which
consists of Jahangeera, Khyber Agency, Mehmand Agency as suitable sites for wind energy.
However, later these sites were deemed unsuitable concluding from the results of wind speed and
density. Firstly, the complicated terrain and topography thins the wind and secondly, there is
higher degree of wind variation in these areas.

Investigation at Kallar Kahar region was also carried out but the findings were similar as
that of KPK region i.e low wind density. Several studies have highlighted about the huge
potential of Gharo or in general Sindh for maximum tapping of wind resources. Developing wind
power plants in Jhimpir, Gharo, Keti Bandar and Bin Qasim in Sindh will reduce the electricity
shortages along with easening the burden of oil imports of $12 billion annually.

Hydroelectric Power
It is not an exaggeration to say that Pakistan is blessed with vast amount of untapped
natural resources. Same is the case with the Hydro Power resources, Pakistan has abundant
hydropower resources and the government is keenly facilitating private investors to promote
hydropower generation in the Country. The resources with which Pakistan is blessed is about
60000 MW, and almost all the potential lie in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Punjab
and Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJ&K). About 89% of hydropower potential is still untapped and
yet to be harnessed.

This table shows that breakdown of total installed capacity of hydropower in pakistan
uptill 2010. Largest installed capacity is in KPK 3849 MW and the smallest in Gilgit-Baltistan
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-133 MW. Whereas a lot of hydropower resources are still untapped. The hydropower resources
in Pakistan lies mainly in the mountainous areas in northern region of Pakistan, on the other hand
the south regions hydropower resources are not that much and mainly consists of small to
medium schemes on barrages and canal falls.

In KPK, about 142 hydropower project sites, with a total capacity of 24736 MW have
been identified having high, medium and small heads. Out of these, 19 projects are in operation,
27 projects are under implementation in the public sector and 11 projects are under
implementation in the private sector.

In Punjab, the main potential for power generation is on barrages and canal falls. About
296 potential sites with a total estimated capacity of 7291 MW have been identified. Out of
these, 8 projects including 1450 MW Ghazi Barotha and 184 MW Chashma, are in operation, 7
projects are under implementation in the public sector and 31 projects in the private sector.

Azad Jammu & Kashmir is another important region having identified hydropower
resource of about 6450 MW. Hydropower development in AJ&K includes successful completion
of 1000 MW Mangla, 1.6 MW Kathai, 2 MW Kundel Shahi, 2 MW Leepa and 30.4 MW Jagran
hydropower projects. Presently in AJ&K, 9 projects with a capacity of 1039 MW are in operation
and a number of hydropower projects with total capacities of 1231 MW and 3264 MW are under
implementation in the public and private sectors respectively.

Numerous promising hydropower sites have been identified in the region of Gilgit-
Baltistan. Due to low power demand in the region and absence of Extra High Voltage (EHV)
transmission lines to transport power to load centre, these sites have not been developed so far.
On account of difficult mountainous terrain and absence of EHV transmission line system,
Gilgit-Baltistan is not connected to the National Grid, hence, sizeable projects have not been
undertaken by private investors as yet.

In Sindh, eighteen hydropower project sites of an estimated total capacity of 193 MW

have been identified with medium and low head at different locations of barrages and canals. In
Balochistan, the hydropower resource is scarce. And currently no hydropower project is in
operation.
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Environmental Effect of Hydroelectric and Wind Power

Plants
Wind Power
Wind power is a relatively mature technology. It competes with other energy sources in
terms of price, environmental effects and usability. With the exception of hydro power, wind
power is closer to commercial profitability than any of the other renewable sources, though
improved project economy is a vital challenge for wind power. Wind energy is widely applicable
because wind resources are available in most countries. Among the renewable energy
technologies, wind energy is relatively mature and many countries have resolved cost and
technology challenges.
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Wind is clean, free, indigenous and inexhaustible. Wind turbines do not need any type of
fuel, so there are no environmental risks or degradation from the exploration, extraction,
transport, shipment, processing or disposal of fuel. Not only is generation produced with zero
emissions of carbon dioxide (during the operational phase) but it also does not release toxic
pollutants (for example mercury) or conventional air pollutants (for example smog-forming
nitrogen dioxide and acid rain-forming sulphur dioxide).Wind energy projects must be located in
accordance with the Planning Act, the regional plans, and the municipal plans. The regional plans
provide general locations for wind projects and guidelines for integrating wind turbines with
other land-uses. The municipal plans can include targets and desires related to wind energy and
provide a more detailed basis for turbine location, number, height and appearance. Wind energy
is a clean and environmentally friendly technology that produces electricity. Its renewable
character and the fact it does not pollute during the operational phase makes it one of the most
promising energy systems for reducing environmental problems at both global and local levels.

Operation of wind power has zero emissions of harmful substances. It does not add to
global warming, the fuel is free, and is quite evenly distributed around the country. The energy
needed to produce and install the turbine amounts to three months of turbine production. But, as
with other sources of energy, wind power does have an environmental impact. The impact on
wildlife is likely low compared to other forms of human and industrial activity. However,
negative impacts on certain populations of sensitive species are possible, and efforts to mitigate
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these effects should be considered in the planning phase. wind energy, like any other industrial
activity, may cause impacts on the environment which should be analyzed and mitigated.

Advantages of wind energy:

Wind energy is an ideal renewable energy because:

1. It is a pollution-free, infinitely sustainable form of energy

2. It doesn't require fuel

3. It doesn't create greenhouse gases

4. It doesn't produce toxic or radioactive waste

Disadvantages of wind energy:

1. Wind energy cannot be stored (unless batteries are used);

2. Not all winds can be harnessed to meet the timing of electricity demands

3. Wind resource development may compete with other uses for the land and those
alternative uses may be more highly valued than electricity generation

4. Although wind power plants have relatively little impact on the environment compared to
other conventional power plants, there is some concern over the noise produced by the
rotor blades.

The energy system in Pakistan is traditionally demand based.

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Energy sector studies predict that if energy demands continue to grow at the currently
estimated rate of about 7% per annum, Pakistan will need annual energy investments of about
6%-8% of GDP during the decade, as opposed to the historical average of about 4% of GDP.
Load forecasting studies undertaken by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)
indicate that over a span of 24 years, power demand will increase to between 4.8 to 5.8 times its
present levels.

Household:

The household sector is the largest single energy-consuming sector in Pakistan. Biomass
fuel, fuel-wood, crop residue and dung account for 95% of energy consumed by households in
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rural areas, with the share dropping to 56% in urban areas. However, this figure conceals its
disproportionately high concentration in the low-income settlements. Biomass combustion is a
major source of indoor air pollution and primarily affects the health of women and children. In
this context, the expected switch to conventional fuels as a result of depleting biomass stocks
will be an encouraging development.

Fuel consumption trends for Pakistan indicate a configuration dominated increasingly by

dirty fuels (oil, coal), as gas and hydel resources begin to deplete. The importance of developing
renewable energy cannot be emphasized enough to address pollution concerns and to meet
growing energy shortages. Renewable technologies such as mini-hydel dams, wind turbines and
solar panels are particularly relevant in the Pakistani context. It is imperative that such options
are explored immediately, given their high development costs and the long lead times required to
gain institutional acceptance. The potential for renewable energy with the exception of mini and
micro hydel power generation has largely remained unutilized. Tables 10 and 11 illustrate the
present take-up of various options, the associated financial costs, and their mitigation potential.
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Wind power is well suited for various coastal locations in the Balochistan province, for
rural areas in Sindh and in the Northern Areas characterized by scattered, isolated hamlets with
populations of less than 50 households. Dispersed energy systems like wind power plants in such
areas are a viable option. It is conservatively estimated that the annual wind energy potential for
Pakistan is in the range of 2000 to 3000 MW (Ali Khan, 1998). Recently, a demonstration project
of 15 MW has been set up in Pasni, Balochistan, to promote wind energy.

Negative Effects of Wind Power Plants

Generally speaking, wind power is the most environmentally friendly form of utility scale
power generation presently available. Nevertheless, the construction and operation of both
onshore and offshore wind turbines can result in potential negative local environmental impacts
on birds, bats, and cetaceans, and on local peoples, landscapes, land use, and the marine
environment. The negative environmental effects from wind energy installations are generally
much lower in intensity than those produced by conventional sources of electric power, but they
still need to be assessed and mitigated. Negative impacts are considered in these guidelines in
four distinct phases of site selection and design stage, construction stage operations stage, and
de-commissioning. Relevant here is only some part of site selection and project design issues.

Firstly, existing land use and population is discussed which focusses on the importance of
security guards and fences around the wind farms for safety of wind turbines and for avoiding
possible breach. Also, there will be made an access road to reach the barren/ inhabitant land on
which the Wind farm usually is. This will lure people in this area which can harm the
environment and plants and animals.

Secondly, in general, wind turbines are not a hazard to wildlife. However, wind turbines
can interfere with avifauna and may result in fatalities of both birds and bats wherever they are,
particularly if the wind farm I constructed in an inappropriate place where birds or bats
congregate for any reason. Also, the presence of wind turbines, particularly during and just after
construction, can displace birds from preferred habitats and reduce breeding success.

The third point of focus is resources of historic or cultural significance. Significant sites
such as those at Taxila and Mohenjo Daro should be fully protected and they should be
particularly protected from any visual, noise, or other intrusions. Again, there is no obvious
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reason for proponents of wind power projects to need to consider undertaking projects that would
be adjacent to, or within 2 kilometers of a historic or cultural heritage site.

Then comes the noise. Wind turbines produce noise when operating. The noise is
generated primarily from mechanical and aerodynamic sources. Most current turbines designs
require no gear boxes, thereby eliminating most of the mechanical noise typically of older
designs. The sound emissions of a wind turbine increase as the wind speed increases. However,
the background noise will typically increase faster than the sound of the wind turbine, tending to
mask the wind turbine noise in higher winds.

Furthermore, wind power plants can cause underwater noise and vibration can cause
significant damage and harm too many marine species. Furthermore, wind power plants can also
have visual impacts as they are visual for about 10 kilometers.

Electromagnetic interference (EMI) is any type of interference that disrupts, degrades or

interferes with the effective performance of electronic devices or of telecommunications and
broadcast networks. That is what wind plants cause. However, the effect is negligible.

Also, wind turbine blade tips, at their highest point, may reach well over 100 meters in
height. If located near airports or known flight paths, a wind farm may impact aircraft safety
directly through potential collision or alteration of flight paths.

A failure in the rotor blade can result in the throwing of a rotor blade from the wind
turbine.

Effects of Hydroelectric Power Plants

The initial construction cost of hydroelectric power plants is very high, which is why
many developing countries though processing high potential for such plants are unable to see
them to completion. The life of an average hydroelectric power plant is about 100 years which is
more than any other alternative present. The pollution generated by hydroelectric plants is benign
compared to coal or nuclear production. Pakistan being a tropical country possesses great
potential for hydroelectric plants as the land is rich in rivers with a strong flow. The strong
flowing rivers present opportunities for such plants.

Although hydroelectric power plants are the safest source when compared to alternative
they still present negative externalities. The construction of hydroelectric power plants requires
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vast areas of land and heavy machinery. The machinery while constructing the dam or reservoir
produces large amounts of harmful gasses. Emissions such as CO2 and SO2. These gasses are
harmful to the environment and harm the human population as well as the wild life. For the area
to be cleared for the construction many green fields are taken away and many trees are taken
down which is destruction of the environment. Even once constructed the plants produce
methane gas and carbon dioxide although in a small overall quantity but still being released into
the environment. The flooding of the land by the reservoir of the dam destroys the agricultural
rich land along the river, it destroys the forests and it destroys scenic beauty of the region.

The power plant constructed has negative impacts on aquatic life as well as wildlife
present in the surrounding area. As forests are destroyed the habitat of animals is destroyed with
it and the fish present in the water are harmed by the blades of the turbines. Also since the water
down the reservoir is stagnant it allows for more weeds and algae to take refuge and grow which
reduces the overall quality of the water present. The dams built on river Indus both large and
small have contributed to the endangerment of the Indus blind dolphins. Also the reservoirs and
dams halt the migration of fish for breeding and other purposes various studies have shown that
the quantity of salmon present in the rivers has significantly decreased over the past decade.
Many fish find it hard to survive in the low water level with high silt residue and die as a result.
Many birds and wild life lose their homes and abandon the area which impacts greatly on the
tourism activities.

The building of dams causes many people to lose their homes as they are required to
relocate, due to the flooding of their villages by the reservoir that is built. We cannot put a price
on this relocation and it is a very serious issue regarding the building of dams. Also the
construction of dams causes the natural flow and direction of the river to change which results in
many people living downstream to lose their access to river water for household uses and for
agricultural purposes. For some people agriculture being the sole source of income, face
difficulties adjusting to the new pace of things. Disputes between people building the dam and
the people affected by the dam is of immense importance as many dams although showing
positive impacts for the economy as a whole are unable to be put into effect. These include the
proposition for the new dam in south Sindh on river Indus and the kala bagh dam. Some private
dams which were constructed for power generation are now abandoned. They continue to alter
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the flow of rivers but cannot be removed as demolition of them would flood the neighboring
villages and agricultural land.

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Wind Power and

Hydroelectric Power
Wind power
Windmill project in Katibundar, Karachi

The study is conducted for installation of windmills by the coast of Arabian Sea,
south east of Karachi in Thatta district of Sindh. This research is a work by Pakistan
Meteorological department for assessment of wind power in these areas. The analysis was
conducted in June 2016 by 4 Authors, who examined 3 different manufacturers of wind
machines GE 1.5, Vestas (V47) and Vestas (V80), and their feasibility. From these, the
Vestas (V80) is producing the most of all power, with a rated power of around 1.8
Megawatts as shown in following graph.

The analysis also confirms that more the height of the wind turbine, the higher
will be the wind speed hence more production of power. Therefore we will consider the Vestas
(V80) at Kati Bandar with a height of 80m.
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The assumptions here in this analysis are that the life of project is 20 years, inflation rate
is 3%, discount rate of 10% and the cost of electricity is Rs. 4.3/Watt ($0.043). Therefore an
estimated output of 1.8 Megawatts would generate a Benefit of $501855/year ($10,037,100 in 20
years).

On the cost side, this includes costs such as Turbine cost ($2660530), transportation
($300000), civil/site work ($540000) and electric system ($80000). All these summed together
given a total estimated cost of $3,580,530. This analysis is summarised in the table below
including Net Present Value, Benefit cost ratio and payback period of investment.

Turbine Installed Benefit Net (BCR) Cost of payback

Model Cost ($/year) Present Energy years
Value ($/kWh)

Vestas $3580530 $501855 $1,395,53 1.3 $0.043 12.2

V80 (80 1
meter
height)

The investment therefore seems to be beneficial since, a BCR of greater than 1 and a
positive NPV also confirms this conclusion. Therefore implementing it must reduce high power
shortages faced by Pakistan.

Windmill project in Gharo, Karachi

Another study by Dr Qamar Zaman and Mir Afzal, researchers at Pakistan

Meteorological department was conducted for the establishment windmills at Gharo, Sindh. The
wind measurement have been recorded for 2 years, and results are an average of 6.85 miles per
second at a height of 50m. The estimated output of power from a 1 km square wind farm
consisting of 30 (600kW) wind turbines that will generate an annual output of 45 million kWh.
This wind farm is designed to be implemented in the following way:
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The total planned investment for the project is be Rs. 850 million which include all
capital and operating costs, which are broken down in the following table:
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On the Benefit side of this analysis, the project is expected to generate power worth Rs.
93,000,000 annually (31 million kWh at a rate of Rs. 3 per unit), providing investors with a
payback period of 7-8 years and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) at 29%.

Therefore a yearly analysis of all cash flows is constructed providing Net Yearly profit
(loss), for 9 years, illustrated in the following table:

Comparison:

From both these studies for wind power, we can see one thing common that the coastal
regions of Sindh are the most favoured places for implementation of such expensive projects,
rather than the plain areas in Baluchistan. Furthermore, amongst these two projects, the latter
plan, that is a wind farm at Gharo is more feasible than the former. This is because the net
benefits of the second project are higher, regardless of a very high initial cost for the second
project. In Rupees (Rs) terms, the net benefit for windmill at Katibundar are (10037100-
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3580530) = Rs.645, 657,000. On the other hand, net benefit for windmills at Gharo [(93mill*20)-
850 mill] = Rs. 1010, 000, 000.

The difference between these two values ranks the project at Gharo to be more favourable
from benefit cost point of view. Apart from these, the project at Gharo also has a shorter payback
period.

Cost-Benefit Analysis Hydroelectric Power

Sustainable power source advancements can help nations to meet their approach
objectives for secure, solid and moderate vitality to extend power get to and advance
improvement

Pakistan is as of now confronting tremendous emergency which is ruining financial

development and influencing more than 190 million individuals. Pakistan's present vitality
creating limit is 24,830 MW, however the nation as of now confronts vitality setbacks of more
than 4,500MW all the time with routine power slices of up to 5 hours for each day, which has
shed an expected 22.5% off its yearly GDP.Pakistan, especially KPK has plentiful hydropower
potential which is yet to be emerged. Pakistan has a capability of 40,000MW hydropower, out of
which the monetary Hydropower Potential is around 20,000 MW. Though add up to limit of 13
existing hydel stations as today 6444 MW which is 35.88 % of aggregate introduced era limit of
WAPDA (Water and Power Development Authority).

Hydroelectric power speaks to 33% of Pakistan's aggregate power supply The introduced
limit in PEPCO framework is around 23000 MW out of which hydro control represents roughly
30% of the limit.
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Hydropower is a capital-escalated innovation with long lead times for improvement and
development because of the huge possibility, arranging, outline and structural designing works
required. There are two noteworthy cost parts for hydropower ventures:

The common works for the hydropower plant development, including any
framework advancement required to get to the site and the venture improvement
costs.
The cost identified with electro-mechanical hardware. The venture improvement
costs incorporate arranging and plausibility evaluations, ecological effect
investigation, permitting and moderation. The common works expenses can be
comprehensively gathered into classes:
Dam and supply development;
Tunneling and trench development;
Powerhouse development;
Site get to foundation;
Grid association;
Engineering, acquirement and development (EPC); and
Developer/proprietors costs (counting arranging, practicality, allowing, and so
forth.).

Cost can be measured in various diverse ways, and every method for representing the
cost of energy era brings its own particular bits of knowledge. The costs that can be inspected
incorporate hardware costs (e.g. wind and hydropower turbines, PV modules, sun based
reflectors), substitution costs, financing costs, add up to introduced cost, settled and variable
working and upkeep costs (O&M), fuel costs and the cost of vitality (LCOE).

The three pointers that have been chosen are:

Equipment cost (processing plant door "free on board" and conveyed at site "cost,
protection
also, cargo");
Total introduced extend cost, including settled financing costs2; and
The levelised cost of power LCOE.

For the most part the expenses required amid th working of expenses are as colleagues:
Normal speculation costs for extensive hydropower plants with capacity ordinarily extend from
as low as USD 1050/kW to as high as USD 7650/kW while the range for little hydropower
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ventures is between USD 1300/kW and USD 8000/kW. Including extra limit at existing
hydropower conspires or existing dams that don't have a hydropower plant can be essentially less
expensive, and can cost as meager as USD 500/kW.

Introduced costs

Vast hydro 1 050 7 650 2 2.5 25 to 90 0.02 0.19

Little hydro 1 300 8 000 1 4 20 to 95 0.02 0.27

Restoration/redesign 500 1 000 1 6 0.01 0.05

Yearly operations and support costs (O&M) are frequently cited as a rate of the venture
cost per kW. Run of the mill values go from 1.% to 4.%. Substantial hydropower undertakings
will regularly normal around 2.% to 2.5.%. Little hydropower ventures don't have similar
economies of scale and can have O&M expenses of in the vicinity of 1.% and 6.%, or now and
again considerably higher.

The cost of power created by hydropower is by and large low despite the fact that the
expenses are exceptionally site-specific.The levelised cost of power (LCOE) for hydropower
renovations and overhauls ranges from as low as USD 0.01/kWh for extra limit at a current
hydropower venture to around USD 0.05/kWh for a more costly update extend accepting a 10.%
cost of capital. The LCOE for vast hydropower extends regularly runs from USD 0.02 to USD
0.19/kWh expecting a 10.% cost of capital, making the best hydropower control extends the most
cost focused producing choice accessible today. The LCOE go for little hydropower ventures for
various genuine activities in creating nations assessed by IRENA was amongst USD0.02 and
USD 0.10/kWh, making little hydro an exceptionally cost focused choice to supply power to the
lattice, or to supply off-framework country jolt plans. Small hydropower activities can have
higher expenses than this and can have a LCOE of USD 0.27/kWh or more for pico-hydro
frameworks.

Huge hydropower potential stays unexploited. The specialized potential is about 4.8
times more prominent than today's power era. The aggregate overall specialized potential for
hydropower is evaluated at15955 TWh/year.
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Hydropower, when related with capacity in supplies, adds to the dependability of the
electrical framework by giving adaptability and lattice administrations. Hydropower can help
with matrix security, as turning turbines can be increase more quickly than some other era
source. Also, with expansive repositories, hydropower can store vitality over weeks, months,
seasons or even years. Hydropower can hence give the full scope of auxiliary administrations
required for the high infiltration of variable sustainable power sources, for example, wind and
sunlight based.

The aggregate introduced costs for expansive scale hydropower extends regularly run
from a low of USD 1 000/kW to around USD 3 500/kW. Be that as it may, it is not uncommon to
discover ventures with expenses outside this range. For example, introducing hydropower limit
at a current dam that was worked for different purposes (surge control, water arrangement, and
so forth.) may have costs as low as USD 500/kW. Then again, ventures at remote destinations,
without sufficient nearby framework and situated a long way from existing transmission systems,
can cost altogether more than USD 3 500/kW. Little tasks have venture costs in somewhat higher
range groups and are required to have higher normal expenses. This is especially valid for plants
with limits of short of what one MW where the particular (per kW) electromechanical expenses
can be high and overwhelm add up to introduced costs.

Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) is actualizing eight uber
ventures with combined power era limit of more than 10,000 megawatts and gross water
stockpiling limit of 10.6 million section of land feet Wapda was building various activities in
water and hydropower divisions.

Neelum Jhelum,

Tarbela fourth Extension,

Golen Gol, Dasu (Stage-I),

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Kurram Tangi Dam

Nai Gaj Dam and so forth

Chashma Hydropower Project is situated on the correct projection of Chashma Barrage.

The torrent is situated on the Indus River close to the town Chashma in Mianwali District around
304 km North West of Lahore. The venture has been assessed at Rs17,821.77 million including
outside trade part of Rs 9264.25 million.

The introduced limit of energy Station is 184 MW containing 8 globule sort turbine unit
seach of 23 MW limits. The globule turbines have been introduced without precedent for
Pakistan. The principal unit was dispatched in January 2001, while last appointing of al units was
finished in July 2001
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The above consequences of monetary examination unmistakably show that the venture is
actually solid and financially feasible. Contrasted with equal warm consolidated cycle gas
turbine. The venture yields bigger advantages. Besides, the EIRR far surpasses opportunity cost
of capital notwithstanding when the advantages diminish by 10% together with 20% expansion
in the cost. Along these lines interest in this venture does not include significant dangers and its
execution s legitimate financially. Budgetary examination of the venture has been done for the
vbase case which considers 10% lessening in advantages and 20% expansion in expenses for the
most dire outcome imaginable for the estimation of advantages the present duty 0f PKR 8.94 has
been anticipated

Vitality era will be a noteworthy concentration of the CPEC extend, with roughly $33
billion anticipated that would be put resources into this part. As a feature of the "Early Harvest"
plan of the CPEC, an expected 10,400 MW of power are slated for era by March 2018 as a
feature of CPEC's "Initial Harvest" ventures.

PEDO has finished four hydropower extend with an introduced limit of 105.3 MW. Two
are situated in Chitral and their produced power is expended locally

SK Hydro Consortium is developing the 870 MW Suki Kinari Hydropower Project in the
Kaghan Valley of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa territory at a cost of $1.8 billion, SK Hydro
will build the venture with financing by China's EXIM bank.

The $1.6 billion 720 MW Karot Dam which is under development is a piece of the CPEC
arrange, however is to be financed independently by China's Silk Road Fund.

Pakistan and China have additionally talked about the consideration of the 4,500MW $14
billion Diamer-Bhasha Dam as a feature of the CPEC extend, however as of December 2015, no
firm choice has been made however Pakistani authorities stay hopeful at its possible
incorporation.

The $2.4 billion, 1,100 MW Kohala Hydropower Project being developed by China's
Three Gorges Corporation originates before the declaration of CPEC, however financing for the
venture will now originate from CPEC subsidize.

The table beneath demonstrates the future prspects for the hydropower plant
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System Initial system Approx. annual income Approx.

power cost (less running costs) breakeven point
5kW 50,000 5,000 10 years
25kW 200,000 25,000 8 years
50kW 350,000 45,000 7 years, 8 months
100kW 500,000 95,000 5 years, 3 months
6 years, 3
250kW 1,000,000 160,000
months*
1MW 3,000,000 450,000 6 years, 8 months

System Feed-in generation

output/capacity rate tariff
<15kW 21.65p/kWh
15kW-100kW 20.21p/kWh
100kW-500kW 15.98p/kWh
500kW-2MW 12.48p/kWh
2MW-5MW 3.23p/kWh

Conclusion
Considering the analyses of both the sources of wind and hydro. It is safe to conclude that
the hydroelectric power is more viable for Pakistan. As there are large amount of untapped
reserves of it. Furthermore, almost all the provinces of Pakistan has the potential of constructing
the projects for hydroelectric generation. The energy generated through hydropower relies on the
water cycle, which is driven by the sun, making it a renewable power source, making it a more
reliable and affordable source than fossil fuels that are rapidly being depleted. Hydropower
creates reservoirs that offer a variety of recreational opportunities, notably fishing, swimming,
and boating. Most water power installations are required to provide some public access to the
reservoir to allow the public to take advantage of these opportunities. Hydropower facilities can
quickly go from zero power to maximum output. Because hydropower plants can generate power
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to the grid immediately, they provide essential back-up power during major electricity outages or
disruptions. In addition to a sustainable fuel source, hydropower efforts produce a number of
benefits, such as flood control, irrigation, and water supply. Whereas wind power does qualify as
renewable source of energy, but it is inconsistent in terms of supply, as the wind speed fluctuate
every day. Although wind turbines come with eye-catching designs, they impact the natural
beauty of the landscape. When a lot more wind turbines are set up, the area becomes unsightly.

Analysis of Survey
As we know that the feedback and opinion of public is the most valuable, so we designed
a survey to get the opinion of general public. 10 questions were designed carefully, which would
give us insight on how the public feels about the electricity crisis and power generation projects
of Pakistan. We had a response of total 51 people of which 56.3% were Male and 39.6% were
females. 98% of people thinks that the loadshedding is among the major problems of Pakistan.
Whereas 2% of people think that load shedding is not among the major problems. Moreover, of
that 51 people, 32.7% people face electricity outage of 4 and 6 hours with 12.2% people facing
load shedding for 10 hours. On being asked about the backup power source, 76.5% people use
UPS as a backup whereas only 19.6% people use generators, which shows that generator is a
costly way of back up due to high oil prices. 51% people think that all sectors of Pakistan
including industrial, housing and business are effected by the loadshedding. Moving on to the
willingness to pay for additional unit of cost 39.6% of people were willing to pay the additional
cost whereas 28.3% people were unsure on this question and 32.1% doesnt want to pay for the
additional cost. Furthermore, 98.1% people think that Pakistan should have more projects for
electricity generation. Of which 49.1% people opted for Hydroelectric power as the best method
of production and 34% of people opted for either of the projects. 86.5% of people were aware of
the effects of hydroelectric power. Moreover 77.4% people were willing to let the environment
effect because of these projects. This shows that people are mainly concerned with the electricity
shortfall and want it to improve as soon as possible.
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Appendix
Questionnaire
1. Gender ?
Male
Female
Prefer not to say
2. Is loadshedding among the major problems of Pakistan?
Yes
No
3. How many hours do you face loadshedding
4
6
8
10
4. Which backup power source do you use during Loadshedding
None
Generator
UPS
5. Which sector according to you is most effected by loadshedding?
Industrial
Housing
Business
All of them
6. Are you willing to pay for additional per unit cost if there is no loadshedding?
Yes
No
Maybe
7. Do you think Pakistan should have more projects for electricity generation?
Yes
No
Maybe
8. Which method do you prefer for Electricity production?
Hydroelectric Power
Wind Power
Either of them
9. Are you aware of the effects of the method you chose above?
Yes
No
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10. Are you willing to accept the environmental and natural effects of projects related
to power generation?
Yes
No
Maybe

References
7 facts about Pakistans energy crisis: https://www.dawn.com/news/1275116
https://www.internationalrivers.org/blogs/227/the-forgotten-downstream-victims-of-
large-dams
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srren/Chapter%205%20Hydropower.pdf
Article supported by:
Ministry for Water & Power, Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB) and
Private Power & Infrastructure Board (PPIB) of Pakistan:
http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2013/Volume4/289-308.pdf
http://www.pmd.gov.pk/wind/Wind_Project_files/Feasibility%20Report-Gharo.pdf
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Muhammad_Shoaib22/publication/304365247_Feas
ibility_Study_for_the_Installation_of_Wind_Energy_Conversion_Systems_in_Pakistan/li
nks/5770042408ae6219474879ee/Feasibility-Study-for-the-Installation-of-Wind-Energy-
Conversion-Systems-in-Pakistan.pdf
Feasibility Study of jamshill-turen more hydropower project (February 2015)
Renewable Energy Technologies: Cost Analysis Series (June 2012)
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Responses
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