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An overview of the intentions and policies of four major powers (US, Ch1na, Japan and India) towards the Indo-Pacific Region, with a net assessment of current trends and possible wild cards that could disrupt these trends.
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Thayer, Major Powers: Future Intentions and Policies in the Indo-Pacific Region
An overview of the intentions and policies of four major powers (US, Ch1na, Japan and India) towards the Indo-Pacific Region, with a net assessment of current trends and possible wild cards that could disrupt these trends.
An overview of the intentions and policies of four major powers (US, Ch1na, Japan and India) towards the Indo-Pacific Region, with a net assessment of current trends and possible wild cards that could disrupt these trends.
Presentation to Vietnam-Australia 1.5 Track Defence Dialogue Hanoi, May 18, 2017 Strategic Overview Trump Administration has heightened strategic uncertainty New U.S. National Security Strategy is under preparation Major Powers are cooperating US-China: North Koreas nuclear proliferation and bilateral trade issues US-Russia: combat Islamic State in Syria But Major Power rivalry will intensify Chinese militarization and Russian assertiveness Make America Great Again America First Tax reform, infrastructure renewal Trade balance and protectionism Domestic polarization Transactional foreign policy Peace Through Strength Defence build-up if budget approved by Congress Pressure on allies in Indo-Pacific China: Xi-Jinping Consolidates Power Xi now core of the Party Anti-corruption campaign removes Xis rivals and detractors 19th CCP National Congress circa November 2017 5 of 7 Politburo Standing Committee members to retire Xis second 5-year term and beyond? China Dream/New Asian Order/One Belt, One Road Chinese nationalism/entitlement as drivers Asian issues to be decided by Asians Continued economic growth but at slower pace One Belt, One Road & Maritime Silk Road United States and China Mar-a-Lago Informal Summit China insisted on informal setting with no agreed Joint Statement Strategic and Economic Dialogue reorganized Working Group on Economic Issues, 100 day deadline Irritants in bilateral relations Terminal High Altitude Area Defense issue U.S. close in surveillance and military activities in Chinas Exclusive Economic Zone U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operational Patrols Revitalised Japan Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Greater role as major power globally & regionally Arms and technology exports Abenomics: Three arrows to kick-start economy Mixed results Proactive leadership role in Asia-Pacific after Trump elected India Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi Emphasis on economic growth, governance and political stability New emphasis on international role Act East Foreign Policy Japan United States ASEAN/South China Sea Australia Trilateral US-Japan-India to Quadrilateral? Net Assessment China will seek to consolidate its influence over multilateral institutions to minimize role of US and Japan Continued opportunistic strategic alignment between Russia and China Competing frameworks for regional economic integration US, Japan, India will counter-balance China- Russia Net Assessment ASEAN states will come under increased pressure by Major Powers hedging and accommodation to China Maritime disputes will be managed but not resolved Increased salience of regional maritime security cooperation ASEAN-centric or competitive? Wild Cards North Korea resumes nuclear testing Chinese economic volatility and stagnant global economy Tensions in China-US relations lead to breakdown in cooperation International terrorism in Southeast Asia Duterte Administration unpredictability Major Powers: Future Intentions and Policies in the Region
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to Vietnam-Australia 1.5 Defence Dialogue Hanoi, May 18, 2017