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Major Powers: Future Intentions

and Policies in the Region

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer


Presentation to
Vietnam-Australia 1.5 Track Defence Dialogue
Hanoi, May 18, 2017
Strategic Overview
Trump Administration has heightened strategic
uncertainty
New U.S. National Security Strategy is under
preparation
Major Powers are cooperating
US-China: North Koreas nuclear proliferation and
bilateral trade issues
US-Russia: combat Islamic State in Syria
But Major Power rivalry will intensify
Chinese militarization and Russian assertiveness
Make America Great Again
America First
Tax reform, infrastructure renewal
Trade balance and protectionism
Domestic polarization
Transactional foreign policy
Peace Through Strength
Defence build-up if budget approved by Congress
Pressure on allies in Indo-Pacific
China:
Xi-Jinping Consolidates Power
Xi now core of the Party
Anti-corruption campaign removes Xis rivals and
detractors
19th CCP National Congress circa November 2017
5 of 7 Politburo Standing Committee members to retire
Xis second 5-year term and beyond?
China Dream/New Asian Order/One Belt, One Road
Chinese nationalism/entitlement as drivers
Asian issues to be decided by Asians
Continued economic growth but at slower pace
One Belt, One Road & Maritime Silk Road
United States and China
Mar-a-Lago Informal Summit
China insisted on informal setting with no
agreed Joint Statement
Strategic and Economic Dialogue reorganized
Working Group on Economic Issues, 100 day
deadline
Irritants in bilateral relations
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense issue
U.S. close in surveillance and military activities in Chinas
Exclusive Economic Zone
U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operational Patrols
Revitalised Japan
Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
Greater role as major power globally &
regionally
Arms and technology exports
Abenomics: Three arrows to kick-start
economy
Mixed results
Proactive leadership role in Asia-Pacific after Trump
elected
India Under
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
Emphasis on economic growth, governance and
political stability
New emphasis on international role
Act East Foreign Policy
Japan
United States
ASEAN/South China Sea
Australia
Trilateral US-Japan-India to Quadrilateral?
Net Assessment
China will seek to consolidate its influence
over multilateral institutions to minimize role
of US and Japan
Continued opportunistic strategic alignment
between Russia and China
Competing frameworks for regional economic
integration
US, Japan, India will counter-balance China-
Russia
Net Assessment
ASEAN states will come under increased
pressure by Major Powers
hedging and accommodation to China
Maritime disputes will be managed but not
resolved
Increased salience of regional maritime
security cooperation
ASEAN-centric or competitive?
Wild Cards
North Korea resumes nuclear testing
Chinese economic volatility and stagnant
global economy
Tensions in China-US relations lead to
breakdown in cooperation
International terrorism in Southeast Asia
Duterte Administration unpredictability
Major Powers: Future Intentions
and Policies in the Region

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer


Presentation to
Vietnam-Australia 1.5 Defence Dialogue
Hanoi, May 18, 2017

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